分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 | 资产类别 | 核心逻辑观点 | 配置建议 | | --- | --- | --- | | A股大盘 | > 颠簸与变局将近,以稳应变: | 中佳 | | | ◆ 国内经济基本面:关税反复,总需求回落压力上升,需关注政策发力的对冲效果; | | | | ◆ 资金面:A股成交额回落至"9.24"以来的低位,市场观望情绪上升 · | | | | ◆ 政策面:短期内以落实已部署正常政策为主,下半年或有增量政策; | | | | ◆ 外部环境:关税谈判期仅剩月余,不确定性有抬头的风险,且不可预测性较强。 | | | | > 关税豁免期临近结束(7月8日),变盘节点临近,6-7月或先抑后扬:关税豁免期仅剩月余,不确定性 | | | | 抗动或上升,目市场成交活跃度回落,市场临沂变盘。此外,结构上或将出现风格变化,今年以来市场 | | | | 缩圈至更为极致的"杠铃"策略 -- 大盘权重+微盘,即以银行为代表的权重以及以微盛股指数为代表 | | | | 的方向表现更为突出。但这一趋势当前面临 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting external risks and the need for new momentum for upward movement [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technology and consumer sectors, suggesting a defensive allocation in high-dividend stocks due to ongoing overseas risks [2][3] - The report lists a selection of "golden stocks" with detailed financial metrics, including Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and others, indicating their potential for growth and investment value [3][72] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings is recognized for its strong competitive advantages across multiple business areas, particularly in gaming and advertising, with expectations for EPS growth driven by high-margin business expansion [11][12] - Alibaba is noted for its leadership in AI and cloud computing, with anticipated revenue growth from its cloud services and improved profitability from its core business segments [19][20] - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from its AI capabilities and content consumption trends, with projections for significant revenue growth in the coming years [24][25] - Xiaomi is highlighted for its innovative automotive business and strong performance in the smartphone market, with expectations for continued growth in high-end products [30][31] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is expected to see improved performance due to lower international oil prices and a high dividend payout ratio, making it attractive for income-focused investors [43][44] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings is positioned for growth in the online investment sector, leveraging technology to enhance its product offerings and market share [51][52] - Anta Sports is recognized for its strong brand performance and strategic acquisitions, which are expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [56][57] - New Energy is anticipated to benefit from privatization efforts and improved profit structures, with a significant valuation upside [60][61] - Innovent Biologics is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth driven by its expanding product pipeline and effective cost management [66][67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, public - offering equity funds have outperformed the market. Leading equity active funds are a mix of focused, rotational, and gambling types in terms of industries, with mid - growth and mid - high valuation styles. Their returns mainly come from stock - picking and trading abilities, and they are more concentrated in the consumer sector. Leading equity quantitative funds may deviate towards large - cap and value, with less under - allocation of finance and less over - allocation of machinery and electronics compared to other public - offering quantitative funds [1][14][33]. - In June 2025, the equity market's sentiment will continue to recover, and investors should take advantage of trading opportunities; the 10Y Treasury bond rate may decline by 9BP to 1.60%; gold should be continuously allocated; the real - estate supply - side pressure will rise; foreign capital will continue to flow in slightly, and the Indian equity market will have a phased rebound, but its current allocation value is relatively limited [2][35]. - In terms of market style, it is recommended to focus on the expected growth style, and the institutional attention to small - cap stocks is accelerating [4][91]. - For industry allocation, the high - probability and high - odds strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment and new energy, computers, machinery, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery; the industry clearance and reversal strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, and communications [5][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Year's Characteristics of Leading - Performance Funds 3.1.1 Equity Active Funds - As of May 30, 2025, public - offering equity active funds have achieved good results. The average absolute return is 2.51%, the median is 1.13%, and the proportion of positive absolute returns is 57.30%. The average excess return relative to their respective benchmarks is 2.45%, the median is 1.49%, and the proportion of positive excess returns is 61.19%. The average information ratio is 2.67%, and the average information ratio of the top 20 is 26.1% [10][12]. - The top 20 equity active funds with an information ratio and established for more than one year are a mix of focused, rotational, and gambling types in industries, mainly with mid - growth and mid - high valuation styles, and their scale is generally below 1 billion. There are three main models: focused on consumption - mid - growth and high - valuation, industry rotation - mid - growth and mid - valuation, and industry gambling - mid - growth and high - valuation [14][15]. - The returns of these three models mainly come from stock - picking and trading contributions. Style and industry returns contribute relatively little to the total return. The leading - performance equity active funds' returns mainly come from stock - picking and trading abilities [19]. - In terms of industry distribution, these funds are mainly concentrated in the consumer sector. Focused funds are concentrated in medicine and food and beverage; rotational funds are relatively diversified, mainly in consumer and manufacturing sectors; gambling funds are concentrated in food and beverage, basic chemicals, and commerce and retail [21]. 3.1.2 Equity Quantitative Funds - In terms of style exposure relative to the benchmark, the top 20 public - offering quantitative funds in terms of information ratio may deviate towards large - cap and value. They have less deviation in small - cap and greater deviation in non - linear small - cap, indicating an increase in large - cap stocks. They also have higher exposure to undervaluation factors, showing a preference for value, and obvious deviations in low - liquidity and low - volatility [29]. - In terms of industry exposure, these top 20 funds have less under - allocation of finance and less over - allocation of machinery and electronics compared to other public - offering quantitative funds. They also have over - allocation in construction and food and beverage [31]. 3.1.3 Summary This year, public - offering equity funds have outperformed the market. Leading equity active funds are a mix of different types in industries, with mid - growth and mid - high valuation styles, and their returns mainly come from stock - picking and trading abilities, and are concentrated in the consumer sector. Leading equity quantitative funds may deviate towards large - cap and value, with different industry exposure characteristics [33]. 3.2 Quantitative Views on Major Asset Classes 3.2.1 Equity: Sentiment Continues to Recover, Seize Trading Opportunities in June - In May, the overall sentiment recovered, with a slight decline in the financial sector and a steady recovery in the industrial sector. The full - A net profit in Q2 may further improve [39]. - Credit expansion has weakened, and the structure still needs improvement. It is estimated that the new social financing in May 2025 will be about 2.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.27 trillion yuan year - on - year. Government bonds will continue to support the growth of social financing [45]. - The market will remain in a volatile pattern in June. Investors can increase excess returns by seizing trading opportunities. The market is in a volatile pattern, and the overall market center may gradually rise, but the pace may be slow. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has a healthy microstructure, and investors can buy low and sell high [48]. 3.2.2 Interest Rates: The 10Y Treasury Bond Rate May Decline by 9BP to 1.60% in June - Since 2023, the out - of - sample direction prediction of the 10Y Treasury bond rate has been correct for 20 months, with a winning rate of 69%. - Economic growth, inflation, and short - term interest rate factors are declining, while the debt - leverage factor has slightly increased. Overall, the 10Y Treasury bond rate may continue to decline in June [35]. 3.2.3 Gold: Continue to Allocate - Since 2023, the out - of - sample direction prediction of gold has been correct for 22 months, with a winning rate of 76%. - Various factors jointly drive the continued rise of gold. The US economic factor is declining, the fiscal factor is rising but at a slower pace, the employment factor is recovering, and the external debt factor is increasing [62]. - The slowdown in the upward rate of the fiscal factor is due to the reduction in defense spending, while overall consumption and investment expenditures have not declined [67]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Supply - Side Pressure Rises - As of May 31, 2025, the three - month moving average of the real - estate industry pressure index is 0.569, indicating an increase in overall industry pressure. The supply - side pressure has increased due to the weak performance at the start - up end, while the demand - side pressure is basically the same as last month [72]. 3.2.5 Overseas: Foreign Capital Continues to Flow in Slightly, and Indian Equity Has a Phased Rebound - In May, there was a small inflow of foreign capital into the Indian equity market, with a net FPI inflow of $2.344 billion. The NIFTY 50 index rose 1.71% in May. - India is currently in a stage of foreign - capital outflow and valuation downward - adjustment due to lower - than - expected profit growth, and its current allocation value is relatively limited [80][88]. 3.3 Quantitative Views on Binary Styles 3.3.1 Comprehensive View on Styles: Recommend Focusing on the Expected Growth Style - The advantage gap of actual - growth assets continues to recover, and it is recommended to maintain the allocation of actual - growth strategies. The advantage gap of expected - growth assets continues to recover, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of expected - growth strategies. - The ROE advantage gap is declining marginally, with low crowding, and the profitability strategy is not recommended although it has short - term performance. The crowding of high - dividend assets remains high, and there is a crowding risk for pure dividend assets. - Currently, both Δg and Δgf are expanding, and the expected growth sector is more worthy of attention. It is recommended to focus on the growth style in June [91]. 3.3.2 Supplementary Observation on Styles: Institutional Attention to Small - Cap Stocks is Accelerating - The downward trend of the US Treasury bond rate is unlikely to reverse. Although there may still be short - term opportunities for dividends, it is expected to have reached an inflection point in the long run. - In May, the institutional attention to small - cap stocks relative to large - cap stocks continued to accelerate. The crowding of the small - cap style increased slightly in May and remains at a high level. There is no significant difference between large - cap and small - cap stocks in June based on the seasonal effect since 2010 [95][100][105]. 3.4 Quantitative Views on Industry Allocation 3.4.1 Industry Recommendation: High - Probability and High - Odds Strategy - This strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment and new energy, computers, machinery, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Since 2024, the absolute return is 12.59%, and the excess return relative to the equal - weighted benchmark of CITIC first - level industries is 0.97% [5][110][114]. 3.4.2 Industry Recommendation: Industry Clearance and Reversal Strategy - This strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, and communications. It defines the state where both industry demand and supply are declining as the industry clearance state, and the state where the demand side recovers after clearance, the supply side has not turned around, and the concentration declines as the end - of - clearance reversal state [116][124].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese stock market is expected to enter a "transformation bull" phase by 2025, driven by declining risk-free interest rates and a systematic reduction in risk perception [1][3] - Key drivers for the market include the central bank's measures to clear liquidity obstacles, leading to a decrease in long-term government bond and deposit rates [1][3] - Emerging technologies are identified as the main investment theme, while cyclical finance is seen as a dark horse opportunity [1][3] Group 2 - Investment opportunities highlighted include financials with high dividends, growth in emerging technologies, and a revival in cyclical consumption [1][3] - The June investment portfolio encompasses a diverse range of sectors, including non-bank financials, banks, and overseas technology stocks [1][3] - Recommended themes for investment include AI agents and embodied intelligence [1][3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance on June 5, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.93% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Medical Index ETF (159557) rose by 0.81% with a turnover rate of 7.52%, indicating active trading [1] - Notable performers among the constituent stocks included Four Seasons Medicine and Hutchison China MediTech, both rising over 7%, while Zai Lab increased by over 6% and CanSino Biologics rose by over 5% [1] Group 2 - According to industrial analysts, demand in the domestic market is expected to recover by 2025, with a positive outlook for the consumption medical sector, including medical services, OTC traditional Chinese medicine, and chain pharmacies [2] - The medical device sector is also anticipated to improve by 2025, with AI in healthcare expected to bring significant changes to the pharmaceutical industry [2] - China's innovative drugs have gained recognition from large overseas pharmaceutical companies, indicating that the country's R&D capabilities are now internationally competitive, which is expected to drive performance growth [2]

Key Points - The report highlights the ongoing recovery of the Chinese economy, with consumption and investment being the main drivers of growth, supported by recent monetary policy measures including interest rate cuts and liquidity injections [5][8][12] - The electronic consumption sector is leading the A-share market, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending and investment in high-tech manufacturing [5][8][12] - The report notes a significant increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, with April's new capacity reaching 45.22 GW, a year-on-year growth of 214.68%, driven by commercial and distributed solar projects [21][22] - The mechanical industry shows signs of recovery, with the first quarter of 2025 reporting a year-on-year revenue increase of 8.91% and a net profit growth of 17.21% [23][24] - The securities industry has seen a rebound in performance, with a 24.60% increase in revenue and an 83.48% increase in net profit in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [31][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external factors such as U.S.-China trade relations and their impact on export-oriented sectors, particularly in electronics and machinery [10][19] - The new materials sector is expected to grow due to increasing demand from manufacturing and technological advancements, despite recent underperformance compared to the broader market [28][30]

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.08%, driven by sectors such as military equipment restructuring, precious metals, and beer [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that A-shares are expected to return to a structural bull market in the medium term, relying on breakthroughs in the technology industry, while short-term focus remains on pharmaceuticals [1] - Huajin Securities predicts that A-shares may continue a strong oscillation trend in June, with technology and consumption as the main lines, and suggests potential opportunities in core assets and cyclical sectors [2] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities notes a rebound in investors' risk appetite, with market style likely returning to the broad technology sector, particularly highlighting the growth potential of AI industry chain leaders [3] - The current market environment shows a reduced concern over tariffs, allowing for a more favorable atmosphere for thematic stocks to perform [3]

王明旭的产品业绩和他的语调一样，单个年份"不显山露水"，但长期却排在同类靠前位置。 观察他的在管基金可以发现一个有趣的现象：他管理时间最长的广发内需增长A，也是在管产品中任职回报最 高的，累计超过136%，年化回报13.84%（截至5月30日，数据来源：Wind）；管理时间第二长的广发价值优 势，任职年化回报率次之；管理时间第三长的广发稳健优选再次之。 过去五年里，我们对话了数百名基金经理，广发基金王明旭无疑是极具特点且与众不同的。 第一次采访王明旭，是在2020年6月。个子高高瘦瘦的他，讲话语调很平和，措词准确而不夸大，态度坦诚而 不掩饰。那次访谈，让我们印象最深的是，他说做投资，既要"见自己"，也要"见众生"。 时隔近五年，再次对话王明旭。当我们抛出"过去5年个人能力圈有多大拓展"的问题时，他也坦诚回答："很多 时候，并没有觉得自己的能力圈在拓展。投资有共性，行业基本面研究也具有共性，有时候随着时间而增长 的是耐心和坚持。" 最近的这次采访，我们能切身感受到他的变化：面对日益复杂多变的市场，他对投资的本质规律有了更深入 的体会；面对净值落后，尤其是站在市场的对立面时，他也有着更深刻的自省和更强大的定力。 ...

港股IPO市场迎来爆发。 5月20日，宁德时代在港交所挂牌上市，其H股股价开盘后迅速攀升并罕见地超越A股股价。此次IPO募资规模 达410亿港元，成为2025年全球最大规模IPO。随后，恒瑞医药、吉宏股份等龙头企业相继登陆港股，推动市 场持续升温。 据Wind数据，今年以来，港股IPO募资总额已突破776亿港元，较去年同期激增逾7倍，接近2024年全年募资总 额的90%，远超2023年水平。市场分析指出，本轮IPO热潮的驱动因素包括：政策红利持续释放、中资企业加 速国际化布局，以及港交所持续深化市场改革。 这一盛况不禁让人联想到2018年到2021年的中概股回归潮，彼时港交所掀起了数十年来最大的变革，包括允许 同股不同权公司上市等，吸引了阿里巴巴、美团、网易、百度等一大批中概股巨头相继回港上市，这一变革也 重塑了港股生态，由金融、地产等传统行业占据主导地位的市场，变成新经济板块，大放异彩。但近年来，港 股市场又出现了"硬科技"缺失的新质疑。如今，这一轮IPO热潮正在改写这一局面。 2023年3月，港交所宣布在《主板上市规则》中新增特专科技公司18C章节，允许尚无收入、无盈利的"专精特 新"科技公司赴港上市，涵 ...

港股IPO市场迎来爆发。5月20日，宁德时代在港交所挂牌上市，其H股股价开盘后迅速攀升并罕见地超 越A股股价。此次IPO募资规模达410亿港元，成为2025年全球最大规模IPO。随后，恒瑞医药、吉宏股 份等龙头企业相继登陆港股，推动市场持续升温。 据Wind数据，今年以来，港股IPO募资总额已突破776亿港元，较去年同期激增逾7倍，接近2024年全年 募资总额的90%，远超2023年水平。市场分析指出，本轮IPO热潮的驱动因素包括：政策红利持续释 放、中资企业加速国际化布局，以及港交所持续深化市场改革。 目前，港股市场的"硬科技"已初具规模。2024年下半年以来，黑芝麻智能、地平线机器人、佑驾创新、 国富氢能、赛目科技、宁德时代等科技企业上市；而在后备的上市力量中，泽景电子、诺比侃科技、中 鼎集成、英矽智能、赛力斯、纳芯微、天域半导体等众多知名科技企业蓄势待发。这些公司所在领域极 为广泛，涵盖人工智能、半导体、新能源等众多热门赛道。 港股成内地企业 全球化跳板 近年来，内地企业全球化布局正加速推进。2024年4月，中国证监会发布5项资本市场对港合作措施，其 中明确提到支持符合条件的内地行业龙头企业赴港上市融资 ...