Core Viewpoint - The newly released "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metal Industry (2025-2026)" aims for an average annual growth of around 5% in industry value added and a recycling metal output exceeding 20 million tons, indicating a focus on enhancing the scale and efficiency of the recycling sector in China [2][3]. Industry Growth Targets - The nonferrous metal industry is set to achieve an average annual growth of approximately 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with a target of 20 million tons in recycled metal output [3][4]. - In the first half of this year, the value added of the nonferrous metal industry grew by 7.6% year-on-year, outperforming the national average industrial growth rate by 1.2 percentage points [3]. Challenges and Competition - The industry faces challenges such as resource security, high-end supply levels, and insufficient effective demand, with ongoing "involution" competition leading to over-investment in traditional and emerging sectors [3][6]. - The industry is also impacted by complex trade conditions due to mechanisms like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and tariff disputes [3]. Strategic Measures - The work plan outlines ten key tasks across five areas, focusing on efficient resource utilization, including the establishment of recycling bases and the comprehensive use of waste nonferrous metals [5]. - The plan emphasizes the importance of transforming waste into resources and enhancing recycling efficiency, with a projected increase in recycled nonferrous metal output to approximately 20 million tons this year [5]. Industry Development and Investment - The industry is witnessing a trend towards the scale and concentration of the recycling sector, with over 100 listed companies now involved in recycled nonferrous metal businesses [5]. - The work plan encourages rational investment in projects related to alumina, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate to avoid redundant low-level construction [5].

Group 1: Research Views Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly and failed to continue the upward trend. The domestic spot copper imports were in a loss state. The US economic data showed resilience and inflation persistence. The labor - market slowdown concerns were alleviated. The LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons to 144,425 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,564 tons to 291,260 tons, and the domestic copper social inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 14.01 million tons. The Freeport McMoRan Indonesia Grasberg mine accident will impact global copper supply in Q4 and 2026. Although investors were cautious due to the cryptocurrency fluctuations and domestic holiday uncertainties, the supply reduction in Q4 will strongly support copper prices, and the quarterly average price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to Comex - LME copper and internal - external price spreads [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated weakly with AO2601 closing at 2919 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decline.沪铝 (AL2510) fluctuated strongly, closing at 20,800 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase. Aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3000 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot remained at par. The domestic bauxite mines have not resumed production, and the ore inventory is declining. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not reached the actual de - stocking inflection point. With the approaching of the double festivals, the downstream is in the stocking stage, but the current outbound volume is at the lowest level in the past three years, and the downstream purchasing willingness has declined, which restricts the upward momentum of aluminum prices [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.26% to $15,240/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.86% to 121,680 yuan/ton. The LME nickel inventory remained at 230,586 tons, and the domestic SHFE nickel warrants increased by 134 tons to 25,105 tons. The stainless - steel weekly inventory continued to decline, with the national mainstream market stainless - steel 89 - warehouse social inventory at 984,500 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. The cost of ferronickel has strengthened, but the supply has increased. In the new - energy sector, the ternary demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but the cobalt policy may lead to a relatively tight supply of MHP. The nickel price may rise slightly at the bottom, but inventory is a resistance to the price increase [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On September 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 82,465 yuan/ton, up 2,460 yuan from the previous day. The LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons, the上期所 (SHFE) copper warrants increased by 243 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons. The domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. Aluminum - On September 25, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,770 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai price was 20,710 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,225 tons, the SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 3,328 tons, and the total SHFE inventory decreased by 765 tons. The electrolytic - aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 63.8 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [4]. Nickel - On September 25, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan from the previous day. The LME nickel inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE nickel warrants increased by 134 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2,334 tons. The nickel social inventory increased by 429 tons [4]. Zinc - On September 25, 2025, the主力结算价 of zinc was 21,965 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day. The LME zinc price remained unchanged. The SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 600 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.92 million tons [6]. Tin - On September 25, 2025, the主力结算价 of tin was 273,150 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous day. The LME tin price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 909 tons, and the LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons [6]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Spot Premium - There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10]. 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - There are charts showing the spread between the first - and second - month contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21]. 3.3 LME Inventory - There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.4 SHFE Inventory - There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. 3.5 Social Inventory - There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. 3.6 Smelting Profit - There are charts showing the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, etc., with rich experience and many honors. Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher, focuses on aluminum - silicon research. Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher, focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On September 25, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,900 yuan/ton and closed at 122,990 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume on that day was 177,030 (+69,275) lots, and the open interest was 99,642 (14,116) lots [2]. - In the futures market, due to the copper mine incident the previous day, non - ferrous metal prices generally rose. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed an oscillating upward trend after the night session opening, and the upward trend continued after the daytime session opening, reaching a maximum of 123,550 yuan/ton, and then maintained a high - level oscillating state. As of the close, it rose 1,310 yuan/ton compared with the previous day's settlement price. Liquidity expectations provide bottom support for non - ferrous metal prices [2]. - In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was fair, and prices remained stable. The 1.3% FOB price of the Philippine CNC mine was 31, and the 1.4% nickel ore transactions from the Philippines to Indonesia were settled at CIF 50.5 and CIF 51.5 respectively. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the new typhoon "Boloiyu" was expected to affect shipments. Downstream iron plants still had losses, and nickel ore procurement maintained a cautious price - pressing mentality, with no obvious pre - holiday restocking operations currently. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply continued to be in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price for October (Phase I) was expected to rise, and the domestic trade premium was prone to rise and difficult to fall [2]. - In the spot market, the sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 125,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price strengthened, and trading was average. The premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 25 yuan/ton to 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,105 (134) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 230,586 (0) tons [3]. Strategy - Nickel prices basically returned to the fundamental logic, with high inventories and the pattern of oversupply remaining unchanged. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a low - level oscillation. For single - side trading, it is mainly based on range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On September 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of stainless steel opened at 12,910 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume on that day was 129,897 (+7,567) lots, and the open interest was 109,896 (-4,171) lots [4]. - In the futures market, the main contract of stainless steel showed a narrow - range oscillating trend on that day. Affected by the rising nickel price, it finally closed slightly higher. The highest price was 12,950 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,855 yuan per ton, and it finally closed 25 yuan/ton higher than the previous day's settlement price [4]. - In the spot market, affected by the rising futures price, traders' quotes increased slightly, but the actual trading was average, and the main transactions were for low - priced resources. After the impact of typhoon "Huajiaisha" ended, the spot trading in Foshan area basically recovered. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 275 to 575 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [4]. Strategy - The eleven - consecutive decline in inventory ended, and inventory accumulation began. The peak season was not prosperous, and downstream demand did not improve significantly. Although the cost side still had certain support, stainless steel prices were expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating state. For single - side trading, it is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum industry is significantly influenced by supply-side reforms that have capped production capacity, stabilizing market supply and demand relationships [1][3] - China holds approximately 60% of the global electrolytic aluminum production capacity, establishing its strategic importance in the industry [2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Side Reforms**: Initiated in 2017, these reforms have effectively regulated production capacity, ensuring alignment with actual demand and eliminating excessive production [3] - **Energy Cost Advantage**: China's low coal and electricity costs provide a competitive edge, making it the largest producer of electrolytic aluminum globally [4] - **Short-Term Demand**: Anticipated demand increase during traditional peak seasons (September and October) is expected to drive inventory reduction and price increases [5] - **Long-Term Supply-Demand Dynamics**: A slowdown in domestic supply growth, coupled with increasing demand, is projected to exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, supporting price increases [5] - **Recycling and Overseas Expansion**: Both are critical for addressing future supply issues, but require higher prices to ensure profitability [6] Additional Important Content - **Domestic Capacity Growth**: Current electrolytic aluminum capacity is 44 million tons, with limited room for growth due to regulatory caps. Future increments are expected to be modest, around 1% to 1.5% annually [8] - **Global Supply Challenges**: New overseas production faces high initial investment costs and slow construction progress, limiting its impact on global supply-demand dynamics [10][11] - **Profitability Outlook**: Current profitability levels for companies are sustainable, supported by stable cost structures and a tightening supply-demand balance [12][14] - **Demand Performance**: Recent demand has exceeded expectations across various sectors, including photovoltaics and automotive, indicating a positive trend for the industry [15] - **Investment Sentiment**: The investment perspective has shifted towards a focus on sustained high profitability and dividend yields, with companies like China Hongqiao emphasizing dividend distribution [17][18] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the electrolytic aluminum industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both current conditions and future outlooks.

| | 首说 | 1.美国公布与欧盟关税协议的正式文件。美国正式下调对欧盟汽车关税至15%,自2025年8月1日起生效。（金十数据） | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【多空逻辑】 9月24日,沪線主力合约区间震荡,成交量为107755手（+54856）,特色量为8526手(+4733),伦保涨0.53%。观货市场成交 | | | | 一般。基差升水缩小。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到浓量增加,港口库存照库;煤铁厂亏损幅度收窄,9月国内排产 | | | | 增加,印尼排产增加,镍铁去库;9月国内电解裂腓产增加,出口盈利扩大。需求瑞,三元群产减少;不锈钢厂排产增加; | | | 媒 | 合金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上期所减少,LNE增加,社会库存增加,保税区库存减少。综上,有色金属领铜出现反 | | | | 弹,铜存供应端批动,而铁基本面偏弱并有库存压力,预计银价反弹空间有限。 | | | | 【交易策略】逢高法空。 | | | | 【风险提示】美联储降息预期变化,印尼骚乱升级、菲律宾抗议活动升级 | | 投资集略 | | (观点评分:0) | | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, short - term prices are expected to remain strong due to supply tightness and pre - holiday stocking demand, despite the Fed's hawkish stance [3][4] - For aluminum, the price has strong downside support as downstream consumption is expected to improve with the approaching National Day holiday [5][6] - For lead, short - term prices of Shanghai lead are expected to be strong, with attention on downstream battery enterprises' holiday arrangements [7][8] - For zinc, short - term prices of Shanghai zinc are expected to be weak due to factors like TC changes and inventory trends, along with Fed's less - than - expected dovish policy [9][10] - For tin, short - term prices are expected to remain in a tight - balance and oscillatory state, with a suggestion of waiting and seeing [11][12] - For nickel, short - term prices may decline if inventory increases, but in the long - run, there is support, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [13][14][15] - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to adjust with the commodity market, and attention should be paid to supply and demand factors [17][18] - For alumina, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended, and attention should be paid to multiple policies [20][21][22] - For stainless steel, short - term prices are expected to remain oscillatory due to support from steel mills and weak consumption [24][25] - For cast aluminum alloy, prices are under upward pressure and supported by scrap aluminum costs [27][28] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: US employment and durable goods data were strong, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons to 144,425 tons, and domestic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 tons. The import loss of domestic copper spot widened to 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference expanded to 3,100 yuan/ton [3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's hawkish stance puts short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the interest - rate cut progresses, sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. Copper raw - material supply tightness is expected to intensify, and short - term copper prices are expected to remain strong [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic social inventory decreased, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 51.6 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.1 tons to 61.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.7 tons to 12.3 tons [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the Fed's stance is not as dovish as expected, the interest - rate cut is not expected to significantly suppress the market. Aluminum's downstream peak - season characteristics are not obvious, but with the approaching National Day holiday, consumption is expected to improve, and the price has strong downside support [6] Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose 0.17% to 17,091 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S rose 3.5 to 2,004 dollars/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 4.22 tons [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On the primary side, raw - material shortages suppress smelting. On the secondary side, profits improve, and smelting starts to pick up. Downstream demand is rising, and short - term Shanghai lead is expected to be strong [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose 0.84% to 22,050 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose 43 to 2,925 dollars/ton. Domestic social inventory decreased to 15.04 tons [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The surplus of zinc ore has eased. The Fed's less - than - expected dovish policy cools the non - ferrous metal sector, and short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to be weak [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin's main contract rose 0.76%. Supply is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and smelter maintenance. Demand in traditional sectors is weak, but it has improved marginally in the peak season [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Tin prices are expected to remain oscillatory, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [12] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, nickel prices oscillated, and the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose 1.25%. The cost of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable, and the MHP coefficient price rose slightly [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, high refined - nickel inventory may drag down prices, but in the long - run, there is support. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [14][15] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC index rose 0.69%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract rose 1.59% [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Production increased by 0.8% this week, and inventory decreased by 0.5%. The price is expected to adjust with the commodity market, and attention should be paid to supply and demand factors [18] Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 25, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.17%. A strike in Guinea increased ore supply risks. The import window opened [20] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term impact of the strike may be limited, but it needs continuous monitoring. The over - capacity pattern is hard to change in the short - term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [21][22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contract of stainless steel rose 0.27%. Spot prices in some markets changed slightly, and social inventory decreased by 0.26% [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, but consumption has not improved significantly. Short - term prices are expected to remain oscillatory [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Thursday afternoon, the AD2511 contract rose 0.32%. Downstream stocking increased before the holiday, and total inventory decreased [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream is transitioning from the off - season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious. There is delivery pressure, and prices are under upward pressure with cost support [28]

| 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/19 | -3326.26 | -2684.28 | 130 | 51 | 47825 | 16450 | | 2025/09/22 | -3284.10 | -2610.97 | 130 | 46 | 46825 | 15450 | | 2025/09/23 | -3003.69 | -2494.16 | 130 | 43 | 45775 | 14950 | | 2025/09/24 | -3318.32 | -2606.04 | 130 | 60 | 44400 | 13675 | | 2025/09/25 | -3597.09 | -2807.34 | 130 | 54 | 43800 | 13075 | | 变化 | -278.77 | -201.30 | 0 | -6 | -600 | -600 | 本周锌价震荡下移。供应端，国产TC小幅下降，进口 ...

Group 1: Company Strategy and Market Outlook - The company is actively promoting its capital increase plan disclosed on July 23, 2025, and is preparing for project application [1] - By 2027, the production of recycled aluminum is expected to exceed 15 million tons, driven by green and low-carbon development opportunities [2] - The company aims to enhance its strategic layout by focusing on industry trends and market opportunities for sustainable long-term development [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Comparisons - In the first half of 2025, the company's gross profit margin for recycled aluminum was below 3%, while the industry average exceeded 6% [2] - The company's gross profit margin is influenced by various factors, including sales and raw material markets, with a slight increase compared to the previous year [2] - Differences in product categories and applications between the company and its peers contribute to variations in gross profit margins [2] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Project Updates - The main ongoing project is the Anhui Phase II project, which includes an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of aluminum plates and 630,000 tons of aluminum ingots [2] - The company is committed to enhancing its core competitiveness and operational performance to create long-term value for shareholders [2]

Group 1 - The company, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, has been under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws, as indicated by the notice received on September 10, 2023 [2] - The company reported a short selling of 169,800 shares and a short balance of 7.1989 million yuan as of September 22, 2023, with a remaining short position of 1.9197 million shares [2] - Investors who suffered losses due to the company's delayed or inaccurate information disclosure can file for compensation if they purchased shares within specified time frames [2] Group 2 - On December 26, 2024, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals held its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders, which was convened by the board of directors [4] - The meeting was attended by 997 shareholders, representing 5.152 billion shares, which accounted for 69.58% of the total voting shares [4] - The meeting approved the proposal for the appointment of the auditing firm for the year 2024, confirming that the meeting's procedures and results complied with relevant laws and regulations [5] Group 3 - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals holds 25 copyright registrations and has obtained 430 administrative licenses according to Tianyancha data [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. Before the interest - rate meeting, the market's profit - taking sentiment led to a decline in copper prices. The copper fundamentals remained resilient with increased downstream orders after the price drop. Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, downstream开工 improved, and inventory was expected to decline in September. Hold long positions at low prices and pay attention to inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1][2] - Zinc prices moved down in oscillation. Supply was affected by TC changes, and demand was seasonally weak domestically and faced some resistance overseas. Hold short positions and partially take profits on domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [6] - Nickel's supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventory increased. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but macro - policies and Indonesian policies had some impact [7] - Stainless steel's supply was expected to increase slightly, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreased. The fundamentals were weak, and there was some price - supporting motivation from policies [7] - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply was affected by various factors, demand improved slightly, and prices were expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9] - Tin prices oscillated widely. Supply was expected to recover marginally, demand was mainly rigid, and short - term supply - demand was weak. Suggest short - term waiting and light - shorting above 275,000 yuan/ton [12] - Industrial silicon production in some regions was expected to adjust, with short - term tight balance and long - term price oscillation at the cycle bottom [15] - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated strongly. Raw - material suppliers were reluctant to sell, and demand was supported by pre - holiday stocking. The market was in an over - capacity stage with some supply disruptions [17] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, the spot price of Shanghai copper, the spread between waste and refined copper, inventory, and import profitability showed various changes. The copper price was affected by market sentiment, fundamentals, and macro policies. Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Aluminum prices, inventory, and import profitability changed. Supply increased slightly, downstream开工 improved, and inventory was expected to decline in September. Hold long positions at low prices and pay attention to inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1][2] Zinc - Zinc prices, inventory, and import profitability were in flux. Supply was affected by TC changes, and demand was seasonally weak domestically and faced some resistance overseas. Hold short positions and partially take profits on domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [6] Nickel - Nickel prices, import profitability, and inventory changed. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventory increased. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but macro - policies and Indonesian policies had some impact [7] Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices were stable. Supply was expected to increase slightly, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreased. The fundamentals were weak, and there was some price - supporting motivation from policies [7] Lead - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply was affected by factors such as scrap battery supply and smelting profit, demand improved slightly, and prices were expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9] Tin - Tin prices oscillated widely. Supply was expected to recover marginally, demand was mainly rigid, and short - term supply - demand was weak. Suggest short - term waiting and light - shorting above 275,000 yuan/ton [12] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon production in some regions was expected to adjust, with short - term tight balance due to production resumption in Southwest China and Hesheng, and long - term price oscillation at the cycle bottom due to over - capacity [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated strongly. Raw - material suppliers were reluctant to sell, and demand was supported by pre - holiday stocking. The market was in an over - capacity stage with some supply disruptions [17]