编辑 白爽 校对 张彦君 新京报讯（记者曹晶瑞）12月24日，市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住 房公积金管理中心等4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（以下简称 《通知》），自2025年12月24日起施行。通知明确，商业性住房贷款利率将不再区分首套住房和二套住 房。 首套房贷和二套房贷执行不同的利率。目前，北京地区商贷首套房贷利率为3.05%，购买五环内二套房 商贷利率为3.45%，五环外二套房贷为3.25%。此次调整后，首套房贷和二套房贷利率将不再区分，具 体利率多少，由银行根据利率定价机制安排，不得低于首套房贷利率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the high dividend ETF fund (513820) showing resilience and attracting significant capital inflows, indicating strong investor interest in dividend-yielding assets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed trend in early trading on December 24, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index down by 0.42% [1]. - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) recorded a slight decline of 0.08%, with a premium widening to 0.73% by the end of the trading session, reflecting active buying interest [1][3]. - The fund has seen a strong inflow of over 600 million yuan for 17 consecutive days, bringing its total size to over 4.3 billion yuan, significantly outperforming other ETFs in the same index [1][5]. Group 2: Fund Composition and Performance - The majority of the constituent stocks of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) experienced declines, with notable exceptions like HSBC Holdings, which rose over 1% [3][4]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the fund include China Pacific Insurance, China Telecom, and Agricultural Bank of China, with varying performance among them [4]. - The fund's index has a dividend yield of 7.25%, which is higher than similar indices in both Hong Kong and A-shares, establishing it as a leading choice for dividend investors [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Outlook - Multiple factors are contributing to the opening of a mid-term trading window for Hong Kong stocks, including a market adjustment that has increased safety margins and a continued net inflow of southbound funds [5]. - The current environment suggests a focus on high-quality dividend stocks with sustainable payouts and stable earnings, as the defensive attributes of dividend investments may weaken in a rising interest rate environment [6]. - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) is positioned as a "pure high dividend" strategy, which is expected to perform well in the current market conditions, especially as institutional demand for dividend assets increases [10][11].

当前，我国城镇化正从快速发展期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增 效为主的阶段，房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化，房地产发展必须适应新阶段新变化。房地产产业链 长、关联度高，必须处理好促发展和防风险的关系。要着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。要深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好 房子"建设。要坚持防范风险、强化监管和创新发展模式相协调，加快构建房地产发展新模式，加快推 动房地产业转型升级，建立风险防控长效机制，扎实推动房地产高质量发展。 习近平总书记强调："在中国式现代化进程中，不仅有风和日丽，也会有疾风骤雨甚至惊涛骇浪。"实现 明年经济社会发展目标任务，要求我们以历史主动精神克难关、战风险、迎挑战，集中力量办好自己的 事。让我们更加紧密团结在以习近平同志为核心的党中央周围，保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识 变应变求变，进一步打好防范和抵御风险的有准备之战，打好化险为夷、转危为机的战略主动战，以新 安全格局保障新发展格局，奋力推动中国经济航船劈波斩浪、行稳致远。 "十五五"时期我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化，我国发展处于战略 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: Bullish [6] Core View of the Report - The report is cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. It predicts that the A - share market will shift from valuation - driven to a mode of both valuation and profit contribution, with an expected annual index increase of about 10%. The long - term bull market in A - shares may continue throughout the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [4][103]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Year Review: A Feast of Equities - In 2025, it was a feast for equity assets globally. Global stock markets generally rose, supported by three common factors: global fiscal and monetary "double - easing", the AI industry trend, and the "de - dollarization" narrative [16]. - In China's A - share market, it showed a diverse and hot state. Most indices rose by over 20%, with micro - cap stocks performing best. The significant difference in performance between micro - cap stocks and blue - chip weight indices was mainly due to institutional behavior and capital attributes [24]. 2. 2026 Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook: Moderate Recovery and Deepening Differentiation 2.1 Exports: Room for Surplus Remains, and Resilience Continues in 2026 - In 2025, China's exports grew strongly, with a trade surplus reaching a record high. The market has debated the balance of the trade surplus, but China's trade surplus/GDP still has room to expand [30][31]. - In 2026, although global demand may slow down, China's active economic and trade policies and the certainty of Chinese enterprises going global will support exports. The export growth rate is predicted to be around 3 - 4% [42]. 2.2 Real Estate: In the Stock Era with Moderate Policies, It May Still Decline in 2026 - The real estate industry has entered the stock era, with the housing supply approaching saturation. It still has a strong financial attribute, and the pessimistic market expectations may lead to a continued decline in 2026 [43][45]. - The continuous adjustment of the real estate industry will affect residents' wealth and total demand, putting pressure on domestic demand [50]. 2.3 Fiscal Policy: Small - scale Total Growth and Possible Structural Re - equilibrium - In 2025, China's fiscal policy was more active, with an increased deficit rate and special bonds. The fiscal expenditure structure shifted towards people - oriented investment, weakening investment in infrastructure [56][58]. - In 2026, the fiscal policy will maintain an active tone but with limited expansion. The structure may be re - balanced, and the pace will be front - loaded, with obvious guidance on industrial policies [62]. 2.4 Monetary Policy: Limited Easing Space, More Focus on Flexibility and Precision - In 2025, the central bank's monetary easing had limited impact on credit expansion. Constrained by factors such as low corporate returns and high mortgage rates, the central bank's further interest rate cuts are restricted [63]. - In 2026, the central bank will maintain a loose policy, use various policy tools more flexibly, and support industrial upgrading and domestic demand expansion [69]. 2.5 Inflation: The Contradiction between Capacity Reduction and Capacity Increase - In 2026, China's industrial production capacity is still in a state of over - supply. The "anti - involution" policy aims to reduce capacity, but it faces challenges in implementation [71][73]. - At the same time, new fixed - asset investments will increase production capacity. On the consumer side, the expansion of service consumption will support CPI. It is predicted that PPI will recover to around - 1% and CPI to around 0.8% [74][81]. 3. 2026 Stock Index Outlook: The Long - term Bull Market Continues - The current A - share market valuation is not low, and the space for further valuation expansion in 2026 is limited, with the target P/E ratio estimated to be between 20 - 24x [96]. - It is predicted that the profit growth rates of the entire A - share market, non - financial stocks, and financial stocks in 2026 will be 4.5%, 8.4%, and 1.0% respectively, showing an N - shaped trend throughout the year [100]. - In terms of capital preferences, technology stocks and blue - chip growth stocks are expected to outperform in 2026 [102]. 4. Investment Advice: Continue to Hold the Long - Position Strategy for Stock Indices - Be cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. The long - term bull market in A - shares will continue, and the long - position strategy is recommended [4][103]. - Favor the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) with a high proportion of technology stocks and the SSE 50 Index Futures (IF) with more blue - chip stocks. The performance of the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) may be weaker in 2026 [105].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the awakening of value in China's capital market, moving towards a low-volatility and high-Sharpe ratio investment phase [1][6][26]. Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to emerge from its low point and enter a recovery phase, with exports remaining a key support for macroeconomic performance in 2026 [1][30]. - Despite overall external demand pressure, China's manufacturing competitiveness remains intact, particularly in the midstream sector, which is expected to show resilience in exports [1][30]. - CPI is likely to trend positively, with a high certainty of turning positive, reflecting the ongoing recovery in domestic demand [1][30][33]. - PPI is expected to show an upward trend, but its year-on-year positive growth needs to be verified in the second quarter [1][30][37]. Policy Perspective - Macro policies are shifting away from "extraordinary" measures, focusing instead on stabilizing expectations and supporting economic operations [2][26]. - The emphasis will be on sustainable policy adjustments rather than large-scale stimulus, with a focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals [2][27]. Asset Allocation Insights - In 2026, a "dual bull market" in stocks and bonds is unlikely; the focus will be on asymmetric volatility between the two asset classes [2][5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider undervalued, high-dividend sectors for allocation, while speculative funds should target industries with high capacity utilization and limited capital expenditure [2][5]. Sector-Specific Analysis - The midstream manufacturing sector is identified as the most certain area of prosperity for 2026, supported by enhanced export competitiveness and the implementation of anti-involution policies [5][30]. - The return on equity (ROE) in midstream manufacturing is expected to stabilize and improve, with PPI year-on-year growth anticipated to stop declining in the first half of the year [5][30]. Market Dynamics - The trend of residents moving their savings into financial assets is expected to continue, although risk appetite may not rise rapidly [2][5]. - The stock market's trading volume is projected to remain high but may not see significant increases compared to previous years [2][5]. Price Trends - The housing market's recovery is contingent on mortgage rates being lower than rental yields, which is a critical condition for stabilizing property prices [5][40]. - The relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields is highlighted as a key indicator for predicting housing price stabilization [5][40].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 中国武夷实业股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于2023年12月6日召开了第七届董事会第三十五次会议、 第七届监事会第二十五次会议审议通过《关于控股子公司北京武夷向股东借出资金的议案》，公司控股 子公司北京武夷房地产开发有限公司（以下简称北京武夷）按权益比例采用借款的方式向公司和金融街 长安（北京）置业有限公司（以下简称长安置业）借出富余资金不超过20亿元，具体内容详见公司于 2023年12月7日在巨潮资讯网披露的《关于控股子公司北京武夷向股东借出资金的公告》（公告编号： 2023-128）。该事项已经公司2023年第三次临时股东大会审议通过，具体内容详见公司于2023年12月23 日在巨潮资讯网披露的《2023年第三次临时股东大会决议公告》（公告编号：2023-136）。 特此公告。 2023年12月26日，北京武夷与公司和长安置业分别签订《借款合同》，2023年12月27日，北京武夷向公 司和长安置业支付第一批借款合计5.5亿元，其中向长安置业支付1.65亿元；2024年1月15日，北京武夷 向公司和长安置业支付第二批借款合计3.8亿元，其中向长安置业支付1.1 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.840 | 111.930 | 112.830 | 112.820 | 0.990 | 0.89 | 140734 | 1 ...

新华社北京12月23日电 日前举行的中央经济工作会议明确提出"着力稳定房地产市场"，强调"因城施策 控增量、去库存、优供给"。一系列部署释放"稳"的信号，为房地产市场平稳健康发展指明方向。 值得关注的是，会议明确提出"鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等"，将进一步打通市场存量与 民生保障之间的通道。这既有助于市场缓解资金压力、加速去库存，又能拓宽保障性住房供给来源，缓 解部分群体住房困难。市场与保障更有效衔接，将有助于稳定房地产市场，助力实现"住有所居"。 房地产发展的最终落脚点是民生，要以高质量供给满足居民不断升级的住房需求。适老化、适儿化等新 需求涌现，舒适度、智能化成为许多人购房的新期待。会议要求"有序推动'好房子'建设"，正是"优供 给"的要义所在。未来的房子，既要建得好，也要改得巧。把新房子建成"好房子"，把老房子逐步改造 成"好房子"，打造安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的宜居家园。 保持房地产市场稳定关系经济运行、关乎民生福祉。落实好已出台政策举措，推进新旧模式平稳有序转 换，必将进一步形成房地产市场持续稳定发展的内生动力，为经济社会高质量发展提供坚实支撑。（新 华社记者王优玲 杨柳） 当前，我国房地 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-24 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24885.00 8161.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | 202512 ...

12月24日，港股小幅高开，恒生指数涨0.02%报25780.09点，恒生科技指数涨0.07%报5492.83点，国企 指数涨0.09%报8922.07点，红筹指数涨0.19%报4075.35点。 盘面上，大型科技股多数走低，阿里巴巴跌0.14%，腾讯控股跌0.66%，京东集团跌0.18%，小米集团跌 0.26%，网易涨1.22%，美团跌0.39%，哔哩哔哩跌0.46%；智能驾驶概念股走强，图达通涨超4%，佑驾 创新涨超1%，禾赛、广汽集团、零跑汽车、文远知行等个股跟涨；黄金股延续涨势，中国白银集团涨 超2%；内房股板块活跃，融创中国涨超1%；银行股部分上涨，重庆农村商业银行涨超1%。另外，海运 股、航空股、重型机械股部分下跌。 企业新闻 太平洋航运(02343.HK)：附属拟1.19亿美元收购四艘新建造小灵便型干散货船。 信义能源(03868.HK)：拟6200万元收购金寨信义风能的全部股权。 天津港发展(03382.HK)：拟2252.43万元出售中铁储运60%股权，标的主要从事各品种煤炭的销售业务。 维立志博-B(09887.HK)：发布公告，评价奥帕替苏米单抗(PD-L1/4-1BB双特异性抗体LBL ...