Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Stronger oscillation [1] - Soda Ash: Stronger [1] - Glass: Stronger oscillation [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea market has no obvious positive drivers, but subsequent demand is expected to provide some support. The urea futures price is expected to rebound after breaking through the low point of the past five months [1]. - Soda ash supply recovers, demand is weakly stable, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The soda ash futures price is expected to maintain a stronger state in the short - term, but the market will continue to face pressure in the long - term [1]. - The glass supply and demand situation has not substantially improved, but news of production restrictions, rising coal prices, and improved macro - trade environment will boost the futures market. The glass futures price is expected to be mainly in a stronger oscillation [1]. Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On June 5, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 6357, a decrease of 52 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0 [3]. - On June 5, the daily output of the urea industry was 200,700 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 25,700 tons from the same period last year. The current start - up rate was 87.27%, a 6.01 - percentage - point increase from 81.26% in the same period last year [3]. - As of June 4, 2025, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons or 5.59% from last week [3]. Soda Ash and Glass - On June 5, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3482, an increase of 142 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 2539; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - As of the week of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 80.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point increase week - on - week; the soda ash output was 704,100 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons or 2.78% week - on - week [5]. - As of June 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.627 million tons, an increase of 2,700 tons or 0.17% from last Thursday [5]. - As of June 5, the average price of the float glass market was 1,207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton day - on - day; the daily output of the industry was 156,800 tons, unchanged day - on - day [5]. - As of June 5, the total inventory of domestic float glass enterprises was 69.754 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.092 million weight boxes or 3.09% month - on - month, and an increase of 20.15% year - on - year. The inventory days were 31.3 days, an increase of 0.9 days from last week [6] Group 4: Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen [26] - Zhang Xiaojin focuses on sugar industry research [26] - Zhang Linglu is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass [26] - Sun Chengzhen is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the western regions of China, particularly in Xinjiang, which is focusing on building ten industrial clusters to support economic growth [1] - Xinjiang is experiencing a significant shortage of skilled talent in modern coal chemical projects, with investment amounts reaching thousands of billions, highlighting the mismatch between project construction pace and talent availability [1][2] - The article discusses the necessity of reforming the workforce training system to cultivate high-quality skilled talent, which is essential for supporting the modern industrial system in Xinjiang [3] Group 2 - There is a large gap in high-quality skilled talent in western regions, and many vocational education graduates are not finding jobs that match their fields of study, indicating a lack of foresight in vocational training programs [2] - Leading enterprises are encouraged to play a pivotal role in training skilled workers, with examples such as Yili New Tian Coal Chemical Co., which operates the world's largest coal-to-gas project, serving as a training base for new projects [2] - The establishment of a talent recruitment and training system is crucial, focusing on local resource development and creating a cycle of local selection, training, growth, and employment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [5] Core Insights - The demand for biodiesel is expected to grow significantly due to its environmental benefits and the expansion of its application in various sectors, including aviation and power generation [1][2] - The introduction of mandatory Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending requirements in the EU starting in 2025 is anticipated to drive up prices for related products in the supply chain [2] - The successful establishment of export channels for domestic bio-jet fuel marks a significant milestone for China's biofuel industry, allowing for international market access [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Biodiesel is recognized for its renewable nature and broad raw material sources, contributing to sustainable economic development and energy transition [1] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that by 2050, 65% of emissions reductions in aviation will come from the use of biofuels [1] 2. Policy Impact - The EU's SAF mandate requires a minimum of 2% SAF in aviation fuel by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the SAF market [2] - China's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of non-grain biomass liquid fuels, including biodiesel and bio-jet fuel, aligning with the country's carbon neutrality goals [1] 3. Market Dynamics - The export volume of domestic kitchen waste oil is projected to grow from 730,000 tons in 2019 to 2.78 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23% [2] - As of June 4, 2025, the average market prices for domestic waste oil and biodiesel are reported at 6,200 RMB/ton and 7,925 RMB/ton, respectively, showing increases of 36% and 17% from their October 2024 lows [2] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, including China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [4] - It also highlights opportunities in domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of local substitution, as well as in the pesticide and fertilizer sectors [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [5] Core Insights - The demand for biodiesel is expected to grow significantly due to its environmental benefits and the expansion of its application in various sectors, including aviation and power generation [1][2] - The introduction of mandatory Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending requirements in the EU starting in 2025 is anticipated to drive up prices for related products in the supply chain [2] - The recent approval of export channels for domestic bio-jet fuel marks a significant development for China's biofuel industry, allowing for international trade and enhancing competitive advantages for leading companies [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights the strategic importance of biodiesel in achieving sustainable economic development and reducing environmental pollution, with a focus on its growing applications in transportation and energy sectors [1] 2. Policy Impact - The EU's SAF blending mandate will require at least 2% SAF in aviation fuel by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, which is expected to significantly boost demand for biofuels [2] 3. Market Developments - The export approval for bio-jet fuel from Jiangsu province represents a breakthrough for the domestic biofuel industry, allowing for a production capacity of 372,400 tons in 2025 [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as those benefiting from domestic substitution trends in materials and chemicals [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [5] Core Viewpoints - The demand for biodiesel is expected to grow significantly due to its environmental benefits and the expansion of its application in various sectors, including aviation and power generation [1][2] - The introduction of mandatory Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending requirements in the EU is anticipated to drive up prices for related products in the supply chain [2] - The establishment of export channels for domestic bio-jet fuel marks a significant development for China's biofuel industry, allowing for international market access [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Biodiesel is recognized for its renewable nature and broad raw material sources, contributing to sustainable economic development and energy transition [1] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that by 2050, 65% of emissions reductions in aviation will come from the use of biofuels [1] 2. Policy Impact - The EU mandates a minimum of 2% SAF in aviation fuel starting January 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, which is expected to significantly boost the SAF market [2] - China's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of non-grain biomass liquid fuels, including biodiesel and bio-jet fuel, aligning with the country's carbon neutrality goals [1] 3. Market Dynamics - The export volume of domestic kitchen waste oil is projected to grow from 730,000 tons in 2019 to 2.78 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23% [2] - As of June 4, 2025, the average market prices for domestic waste oil and biodiesel are reported at 6,200 RMB/ton and 7,925 RMB/ton, respectively, showing increases of 36% and 17% from their October 2024 lows [2] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, as well as companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends in materials [4]

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][5]. Core Views - The company reported a 2024 annual revenue of 34.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.903 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 2.59% year-on-year, with a net profit drop of 33.65% year-on-year, attributed to pressure on product prices [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual release of its production capacity and a share buyback plan, which reflects management's confidence in long-term growth [5]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 20.86 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 44.3 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.6% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.33 [4]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 342 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 348 billion yuan in 2025, 385 billion yuan in 2026, and 408 billion yuan in 2027 [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 38.87 billion yuan in 2025, 44.62 billion yuan in 2026, and 50.45 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.83, 2.10, and 2.38 yuan [6][7]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to be 77.99 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 93.41 billion yuan by 2027 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a low-cost leader in the coal chemical industry, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing production capabilities [5]. - The management's decision to initiate a share buyback of 200 to 300 million yuan indicates strong confidence in the company's future [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the domestic urea market will face an expected increase in supply and a phased release of demand, with enterprise inventories likely to decline seasonally. However, the upside of urea prices is significantly limited, and the futures market is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [4]. - In the short term, the downside of the soda ash futures market is limited, but in the long term, the market will continue to face pressure. In June, production device maintenance or emergencies may still disrupt the market, and there is an expectation of a continued recovery in rigid demand [5]. - In June, the glass market will still face expectations of increased supply and weakened demand, with enterprise inventory pressure likely to further increase, and the market downturn is difficult to improve significantly [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industrial Chain - **Futures Prices**: As of May 30, the monthly decline of the urea main contract was 3.9%, the soda ash main contract was 11.58%, and the glass main contract was 9.83%. In May, the prices of related futures varieties were weak, with urea performing relatively strongly and soda ash the weakest [4][5][6][13][14]. - **Futures - related Varieties**: In May, the prices of related futures varieties trended weakly, with urea showing relative resilience and soda ash being the weakest [14]. - **Coal Prices**: In May, the prices of some coal varieties declined. For example, the monthly changes in the ex - works price of Qinhuangdao Youhun steam coal (5500) and the pit - mouth price of Shaanxi Yulin smoky coal (Q5500) were - 41 yuan/ton and - 51 yuan/ton respectively [15]. - **LNG Prices**: In May, the prices of some LNG products declined. For example, the monthly changes in the prices of Zhongmei Ordos, Ningxia Hanas, and Shaanxi Hancheng were - 320 yuan/ton, - 170 yuan/ton, and - 190 yuan/ton respectively [18]. - **Raw Salt Prices**: In May, the prices of raw salt in some regions declined slightly [19]. - **Synthetic Ammonia Prices**: In May, the price of Shandong synthetic ammonia decreased by 5.41% [20]. 3.2 Urea: Demand May Follow Up in June, but the Upside of Prices is Significantly Limited - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of urea showed mixed trends, with the mainstream regional price fluctuations ranging from - 40 to + 40 yuan/ton [23]. - **Supply**: In May, the urea supply fluctuated at a high level, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. In June, if two new plants in Xinjiang are put into operation as planned, the supply level will further increase [4]. - **Demand**: In May, the follow - up of urea demand was relatively cautious. After the wheat harvest in the north, the demand for corn fertilizer and export demand will support the demand, but the price is difficult to rise significantly [4]. - **Inventory**: In May, the urea enterprise inventory first decreased and then increased, remaining at a high - level year - on - year. If the agricultural and export demand follows up smoothly in June, the enterprise inventory is expected to continue to transfer to ports and the middle and lower reaches [4]. - **Export**: In April, China's urea export volume was 0.23 million tons, with little impact on the domestic market. The total export volume from May to September is about 2 million tons, and the export volume is unlikely to change significantly later [4]. - **International Market**: In May, the international urea prices mostly declined, while China's FOB price increased significantly. At the end of May, India issued a new round of international urea tenders [67][69]. - **Related Products**: In May, most phosphate fertilizer prices rose, while potash fertilizer prices showed partial declines and partial increases [71]. 3.3 Soda Ash: The Downside of the Short - term Futures Market is Limited, but the Long - term Market Continues to Face Pressure - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of soda ash showed local weak declines [78]. - **Basis**: In May, the basis of soda ash (market average price) strengthened slightly [84]. - **Supply**: In May, the soda ash supply level decreased significantly, with the industry's start - up rate dropping to a year - on - year low, and the output at the end of May decreased by 8.48% compared to the end of April [90][95]. - **Inventory**: At the end of May, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 2.86% compared to the end of April. In June, the enterprise inventory may be depleted, but there is a risk of anti - seasonal accumulation [5][100]. - **Export**: In April, China's soda ash export volume was 170,600 tons, a decrease of 12.21% compared to March. The export volume remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and the possibility of maintaining a high level in the future is still relatively high [5]. - **Profit**: In May, the production profits of ammonia - soda and combined - soda enterprises decreased compared to the same period last year [107]. 3.4 Glass: Demand in June Still Faces Challenges, and the Market Downturn is Difficult to Improve Temporarily - **Futures Prices**: In May, the glass futures prices continued the unilateral downward trend, with the main 09 contract breaking through the 1000 - yuan mark [6]. - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of glass mostly declined, with the mainstream 5mm large - plate market prices dropping by 20 - 120 yuan/ton throughout the month [6]. - **Supply**: In May, the glass production lines had alternating water - release and ignition, with supply first decreasing and then increasing. In June and July, there is an expectation of increased supply, but the implementation of production line commissioning needs attention [6]. - **Inventory**: In May, the glass enterprise inventory remained at a relatively high level in recent years, and in the later rainy season, the enterprise inventory pressure may continue to increase [6][7]. - **Demand**: The demand decline rate exceeds the glass production capacity decline rate. In June, after the rainy season starts, the glass demand will be restricted, and the enterprise inventory pressure may reappear [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Xinjiang coal chemical industry, highlighting its strategic importance and growth potential [3][5]. Core Insights - Xinjiang has abundant coal resources, with a predicted coal resource volume of 2.19 trillion tons and confirmed resources of 450 billion tons, making it a key player in China's coal chemical sector [4][5]. - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is expected to experience rapid development, with planned investments exceeding 700 billion yuan and an anticipated increase in coal demand of 210 million tons per year [4][5]. - The integration of major inter-basin water diversion projects is expected to alleviate water resource shortages, further enhancing the competitiveness of Xinjiang's coal chemical industry [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Resource Advantages - Xinjiang's coal resources are characterized by high quality and low extraction costs, with 95% of the identified resources suitable for chemical raw materials [4][29]. - The region's coal consumption for chemical production accounted for 12.1% of total coal production in 2022, indicating a growing trend towards coal chemical utilization [5][29]. 2. Industry Development and Policy Support - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is supported by mature domestic technology and favorable policies, leading to the establishment of a complete industrial chain including coke and calcium carbide-PVC [4][6]. - Planned modern coal chemical projects include coal-to-methanol (8.3 million tons/year), coal-to-olefins (7.1 million tons/year), coal-to-oil (4 million tons/year), and coal-to-gas (33.7 billion cubic meters/year) [4][5]. 3. Cost Competitiveness and Market Dynamics - The report highlights the cost advantages of Xinjiang's coal chemical products, particularly in the ammonia-urea and calcium carbide-PVC sectors, where local production costs are significantly lower than in other regions [4][6]. - The coal-to-olefins process is particularly advantageous when international oil prices exceed $60 per barrel, showcasing the economic viability of Xinjiang's coal chemical projects [4][6]. 4. Future Outlook - The coal chemical industry is projected to become a major pillar of Xinjiang's economy, with a strategic position in the national energy landscape expected to strengthen [5][6]. - Key companies to watch include Baofeng Energy, Hubei Yihua, Xinjiang Tianye, and China Heartlink Fertilizer, which are positioned to benefit from the region's coal resource advantages [5][6].

Core Insights - The report outlines the future industrial carbon neutrality technology evolution path, projecting that by 2060, China's industrial carbon emissions could drop to 450 million tons, a reduction of approximately 95% from 2025 levels [1] - Four common technologies—raw material substitution, waste recycling, electrification and clean power substitution, and hydrogen substitution—are expected to contribute nearly 80% to industrial carbon neutrality technology emissions reduction [1] Industrial Carbon Neutrality Technology Pathways - Climate change is a significant global challenge, with China's industrial sector accounting for nearly 70% of national emissions, necessitating research into industrial carbon neutrality technologies [2] - The report proposes a three-phase technology development path: - 2025-2035: Large-scale application of low-carbon process technologies, focusing on raw material substitution, waste recycling, and energy efficiency improvements [2] - 2035-2050: Explosive application of disruptive technologies such as hydrogen, electrification, and CCUS, aiming to restructure the industrial system [2] - 2050-2060: Deep application of carbon removal technologies, with CCUS expected to contribute 24% to emissions reduction [2] Sector-Specific Insights - In the steel industry, short-process electric furnace steel and energy efficiency technologies are mature, with hydrogen metallurgy and CCUS in demonstration stages; crude steel production is projected to drop to 700 million tons by 2060 [3] - The cement industry has large-scale applications of raw material and fuel substitution technologies, with CCUS expected to contribute over 50% of emissions reduction by 2050 [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector has mature waste aluminum recycling technologies, with total aluminum production stabilizing at 50 million tons by 2060 [3] - The petrochemical industry is in early application stages for green hydrogen substitution and electrification, with CCUS expected to contribute 23% to emissions reduction by 2060 [3] - The coal chemical industry is in demonstration stages for green hydrogen coupling and electric drive technologies, with CCUS expected to achieve a penetration rate of 50%-60% by 2060 [3] Challenges and Recommendations - Industrial carbon neutrality faces challenges such as low technology maturity, high costs, and insufficient industry chain collaboration [4] - The report recommends planning and deploying a comprehensive set of key industrial carbon neutrality technologies, which could cumulatively reduce carbon emissions by 14%-35% through early deployment [4] - It suggests enhancing the carbon market's incentive role, with expectations of driving 250-350 billion yuan in emission reduction investments by 2027 [4] - The report emphasizes the need for a supportive fiscal and tax policy framework, projecting a cumulative investment of 42 trillion yuan in industrial carbon neutrality from 2025 to 2060 [5]