一堆外国人会像我们曾经追逐日本动漫，好莱坞电影一样，打破头去抢我们中国的文化商品，欧美明星 争先上身。虽然知道这一天会迟早会到来，但是还是没想到会来的这么快，我们终于也像列强一样，用 塑料和化纤换他们手里的钱了。我愿意把这个转折叫做泡泡玛特时刻，未来会有越来越多的中国消费品 品牌经历这个时刻。 ...

A股下一阶段大概率将延续震荡上行的走势，但需关注短期波动风险。科技自立、内需消费及红利股方向具备中长期配置价值。（1）趋势节奏上：９月业 绩为锚，10月政策为帆。展望下一阶段，短期预计市场在偏高中枢运行，经历前期上涨行情后，市场或将阶段性呈现震荡整固特点。但当前市场成交维持活 跃，资金面持续驱动叠加政策预期升温，为市场行情提供支撑。 技术面8.3 资金面4.0 （2）未来关注方向：短期关注补涨机会。中长期聚焦三条主线，一是供需格局改善与行业盈利修复带动的"反内卷"概念，以及估值具备安全边际的红利资 产，配置逻辑依然清晰。二是内需消费方向：政策呵护下的大消费领域具备投资价值，建议关注服务消费领域低估值标的。三是科技自立方向：AI、机器 人、半导体、军工等板块受益于国内高技术产业的快速发展。 快递行业"反内卷"步伐加快。近期，在电商重镇广东、浙江两地，多家快递公司对电商客户上调快递费用。除浙江义乌、广东外，业内对福建、安徽、江 苏、山东等地也有涨价预期。记者从浙江地区的部分快递网点与电商商家处了解到，7月底、8月初以来，电商快递价格确实有不同程度的上调。快递费用调 涨，对特价快递与小件产生的影响较为明显，不过目前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the blind box economy has led to an increase in counterfeit products being sold through live streaming, resulting in significant consumer complaints and legal actions against the perpetrators [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The blind box economy is thriving, with emotional value attached to intellectual property capturing consumer interest [1]. - Counterfeit products, often sold as "scatter goods," are being marketed by online influencers, misleading consumers about their quality [2]. Group 2: Legal Actions - The Beijing Chaoyang District People's Court has been involved in several cases related to copyright infringement and the sale of counterfeit products [1][3]. - The court found that the defendants, including manufacturers and sellers, knowingly produced and sold counterfeit Bubble Mart products, leading to significant financial losses for the company and damage to brand trust [3][7]. Group 3: Criminal Proceedings - The court proceedings revealed a structured operation where counterfeit toys were produced and sold at significantly lower prices than genuine products, with profits being shared among the involved parties [4][6]. - Sentences were handed down to multiple defendants, with penalties including prison time and fines for their roles in the counterfeit operation [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "Neutral" due to a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation, raising market concerns about the potential decline in product popularity [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock opened with a significant drop, falling over 8% at one point, and closed at 259 HKD, reflecting a decline of 6.43% [1] - Since reaching an all-time high on August 26, Pop Mart's stock price has decreased by 30% [3] Group 2: Product Market Trends - Concerns have emerged regarding the waning popularity of Pop Mart's products, particularly the Labubu series, with its trading prices on the secondary market experiencing volatility [1] - The average transaction price for the Labubu series has shown a downward trend, with some regular models trading below their original price of 99 CNY [1] - The hidden version "Ben Wo," a limited edition product, has seen its second-hand market price drop to around 700-800 CNY, with some listings going as low as just over 200 CNY [2]

Group 1 - Xibei issued a second apology regarding the controversy over prepared dishes, changing the wording in their statement and promising to adjust some prepared dishes to be made fresh in-store by October 1 [1] - The founder of Xibei, Jia Guolong, faced backlash for derogatory comments about Luo Yonghao, which raised legal concerns regarding defamation [1] - Luo Yonghao criticized Xibei's promises as "false commitments" and questioned the quality and shelf life of the prepared dishes [1] Group 2 - Luo Yonghao announced that the owner of Hua Yu Hua has apologized to him, indicating a resolution to the previous conflict, while emphasizing the importance of consumer rights regarding prepared dishes [2] - Xiaomi's new 17 series smartphones are set to directly compete with Apple's iPhone, featuring the latest Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 chip and marking a significant upgrade for the brand [3] Group 3 - Pop Mart's new SKULLPANDA plush toys sold out quickly, with significant price premiums observed, although overall consumer enthusiasm appears to be declining compared to previous releases [4] - Midea has partnered with Tmall to enhance instant retail services, enabling rapid delivery from nearly 90 stores across 19 cities [4] Group 4 - Online retail sales in China reached 99,828 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, with physical goods sales growing by 6.4% [6] - Yonghui Supermarket plans to procure approximately 2,500 tons of chestnuts from a certified region known for its high-quality produce [8] Group 5 - Pinduoduo launched a significant subsidy program, reducing prices for the new iPhone 17 series by 1,000 yuan, making the iPhone 17 available for as low as 4,999 yuan [10] - JD MALL opened its first self-operated store in Shenzhen, featuring over 200 core brands and a wide range of products [11] Group 6 - JD is in talks to acquire Argos, the second-largest retail chain in the UK, which could enhance Argos's transformation with JD's expertise in retail and logistics [13] - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me initiated a "Bright Kitchen, Bright Stove" entrepreneurial support program aimed at assisting various entrepreneurs in the food industry [14] Group 7 - JD Seven Fresh launched a promotional event focused on Xinjiang products, showcasing local cuisine and culture while expanding its private label strategy [15] - Taobao Flash Sale anticipates a significant increase in brand participation for the upcoming Double 11 shopping festival [17] Group 8 - Meituan introduced a series of "Safe Consumption" products aimed at enhancing consumer protection and service quality across various sectors [18] - New national standards for food labeling are being implemented, with companies like Qianhe Flavor Industry leading the way in updating their packaging to comply with these regulations [20]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD [4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to close at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, leading to a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [2]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index, which increased by 2.16% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [4]. - The recent product launches, including the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, as evidenced by low queue numbers during the release [4]. Group 3: Sales Performance and Consumer Demand - The online sales of the new SKULLPANDA blind boxes showed volatility, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, indicating potential high return rates [5]. - The launch of the gold jewelry series "popop" also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at retail locations [5]. Group 4: Secondary Market Trends - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with the average transaction price for Labubu's fourth generation dropping from 1916 RMB to 1422 RMB [6]. - On the Xianyu platform, the average transaction price fell to 104 RMB, with 68% of users expecting further price declines [6]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - An economist noted that the stock price of collectible toy companies is correlated with product market demand, suggesting that the current decline in prices may continue if new IPs are not consistently produced [8]. - The sustainability of the collectible toy market's value relies on diversifying offerings and continuously generating new IPs to meet varying consumer preferences [8].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD [3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to close at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, leading to a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [1]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has been on a downward trend, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 2.16% during the same period [3]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [3]. Group 3: Product Demand and Sales - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer demand, with sales figures showing a significant drop compared to previous releases [4]. - The online sales of the new blind box experienced fluctuations, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, indicating potential high return rates [5]. - The launch of the popop gold jewelry series also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at retail locations [5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Consumer Sentiment - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with the average transaction price for Labubu series dropping from 1916 RMB to 1422 RMB [5]. - A significant portion of users on trading platforms believe prices will continue to decline, leading some resellers to pause their purchasing strategies [5]. - An economist noted that the stock price of collectible toy companies is closely tied to product market demand, emphasizing the importance of continuously producing new IPs to sustain market value [7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, leading to a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD, while the Hang Seng Index has risen by 2.16% during the same period [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43%, closing at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, resulting in a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [1]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has seen a continuous decline, indicating a lack of investor confidence [2][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Product Demand - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [4]. - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, with reports of minimal queues for new releases, contrasting sharply with previous sales events [4][5]. - The online sales performance of new products has been volatile, with significant fluctuations in sales numbers, suggesting potential issues with high return rates [5]. Group 3: Secondary Market Trends - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with average transaction prices for Labubu products dropping significantly [5]. - A notable percentage of users on trading platforms believe prices will continue to decline, prompting some resellers to pause their purchasing strategies [5]. Group 4: Industry Insights - An economist highlighted the correlation between toy companies' stock prices and market demand, warning that the current situation reflects an irrational bubble that could lead to prolonged price declines [7]. - The sustainability of IPs is crucial, and companies must continuously innovate and diversify their offerings to meet varying consumer preferences [7].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock price has significantly declined, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, with a market capitalization now below 350 billion HKD, indicating a loss of over 100 billion HKD in value since the peak [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, resulting in a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [2] - The stock has been on a downward trend since reaching its peak on August 26, despite the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.16% during the same period [2] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - JPMorgan downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "Neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [2] - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, with reports of only 10 people queuing for the new release [2][3] Group 3: Sales Performance and Market Trends - The online sales of the new blind box series showed volatility, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, suggesting high return rates [3] - The launch of the gold jewelry series "popop" also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at the Beijing store [3] - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with average transaction prices for Labubu products falling significantly [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Economic experts suggest that the stock price of collectible toy companies is closely linked to product market demand, with current trends indicating a potential irrational bubble in Labubu's pricing [5] - The sustainability of IPs is crucial, and companies need to continuously produce new IPs to meet diverse consumer demands and support stock prices through performance [6]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's rating to "Neutral" and reduced the target price from HKD 400 to HKD 300, citing that the stock price has surged 209% this year, reaching a "perfectly priced" valuation, leading to a poor risk/reward ratio in the short term [1][6][7] Price Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has increased by 209% year-to-date and 466% over the past year, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose 32% and 52% in the same periods [5][7] - The stock experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of HKD 252 per share, a drop of over 25% from its previous record high [3][5] Rating and Target Price Adjustment - The downgrade from "Overweight" to "Neutral" reflects concerns that the stock's rapid price increase has led to a situation where any minor negative news could trigger significant price corrections [6][7] - The PEG ratio was adjusted from 1.5 to 1.1, indicating increased risk consideration at current high valuations [8] Catalysts and Future Outlook - Four out of seven previously identified catalysts have been realized, including strong performance reports and successful collaborations, while three potential catalysts remain uncertain [9][10] - Investors are advised to wait for the next catalyst window between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 before making further investment decisions [10] Core IP and Market Dynamics - Concerns regarding the sustainability of the core IP Labubu's popularity have arisen due to declining resale prices in the secondary market, attributed to rapid production capacity expansion rather than a decline in IP interest [11][12] - The secondary market prices for Labubu collectibles have seen significant drops, with Labubu 3.0 prices falling 70% from their peak, yet still maintaining a 15% premium over retail prices [12][13] Long-term Investment Logic - Despite the downgrade, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive long-term outlook for Pop Mart, emphasizing its strong IP development and monetization capabilities, diversified IP portfolio, and successful global expansion [14][15] - The company is expected to reduce reliance on a single IP, with Labubu's sales contribution projected to be 35% by 2027, and overseas business growth anticipated to contribute over 60% of group profits by 2027 [15]