（来源：燕财局） 咱们国家一年当中有4次重要经济研判会议和1次核心年度经济会议，而五次之中2次通常集中在12月。 前者的4次都由政治局主持召开，时间通常在每年的4月、7月、10月和12月，对当前经济形势进行分析和研判，尤其是12月那场通常专门研究下一年经济 工作，并为接下来（也在12月）的中央经济工作会议做准备。 后者的1次核心年度经济会议，也就是中央经济工作会议，主要任务是总结当年经济工作，分析研判经济形势，并部署下一年的经济发展规划。 换言之，今年12月有两场会议，第一场是政治局会议，这场会议会专门分析研判2026年该怎么走，给2026年经济工作定调；第二场则是之后的中央经济会 议，这场会议会完善更多的执行细则。 明眼人都能看出来，显然12月的这场政治局经济会议尤为重要，因为它将直接关系到房贷利息会不会降、收入会不会涨、养老金和育儿补贴会不会增加， 国家政策将重点向哪些产业行业板块倾斜，等等。 相当于是对2026年经济宏观政策的抢先预告，分量可以说几乎是全年之最。 上到企商界佬、投资精英，下到炒股的牛散，甚至都要逐字研究每句话背后的含义。 作者 | 燕大 12月重磅会议，给2026年经济划下大方向！ 而昨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a "more declines than gains, structural differentiation" characteristic, with the technology growth sector being the core due to strong performance certainty and high industry prosperity [5]. Market Performance - 1,305 companies saw an increase in their stock prices, with a rise and fall ratio of 54:12, indicating a selective market performance [5]. - The total trading volume in both markets was 9.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.57%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment and a concentration of funds in a few sectors [6]. Sector Analysis - The computing hardware sector had the highest trading volume, while the retail sector benefited from consumption stimulus policies, leading to a significant increase in trading volume [6]. - Traditional cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, coal, and brokerage firms collectively adjusted due to a lack of catalysts and capital outflows [5]. Fund Flow and Sentiment - There was a net outflow of 617.91 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow, indicating a defensive repositioning by institutions away from the electronic and computing sectors towards banks and public utilities [7]. - Retail investors displayed cautious optimism, focusing on sectors driven by policy catalysts such as commercial aerospace and consumer recovery [7]. Investor Sentiment - The sentiment among retail investors was recorded at 75.85%, indicating a relatively positive outlook despite the cautious market environment [8].

Core Insights - The report indicates an upward trend in the market with improved win rates, despite limited upward space, maintaining a mid-term oscillating pattern [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks with solid fundamentals and clear industry positions, which are expected to attract incremental capital during the market's upward oscillation [4][9] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from favorable policies and internal transformations, leading to a clearer growth path for performance [5][9] - The military industry is highlighted for its dual demand dynamics, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as new equipment construction plans are clarified [6][9] Market Strategy - The market has shown a slight recovery in risk appetite due to favorable domestic insurance investment policies and a shift in U.S. national security strategy, leading to a rebound in non-bank financials, metals, communications, and AI sectors [9] - The report suggests that the current market environment favors structural opportunities within advanced manufacturing, non-bank finance, technology, and cyclical sectors [9] Sector Strategy - The brokerage sector is undergoing a transformation driven by regulatory support for quality firms, which is expected to enhance leverage and profitability [5][9] - The report outlines a differentiated development pattern in the brokerage industry, focusing on strengthening leading firms while allowing smaller institutions to specialize [9] Thematic Strategy - The military sector is poised for growth with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing new production capabilities in unmanned systems and deep-sea technology [6][9] - The report identifies potential growth areas in military trade and civil applications, particularly as domestic power systems advance [6][9]

摩根大通分析师在9月的一份报告中告知客户，过去两年，与人工智能相关的公司贡献了标普500指数约 75%的回报。尽管对人工智能泡沫的担忧日益加剧，但这一趋势尚无消退迹象。 美联储宽松政策助力 美联储在9月和10月实施了降息，市场普遍预期本周还将再次降息，这一举措通过降低企业借贷成本、 支撑高企的股票估值，进一步利好股市。奥本海默表示，美联储降息是标普500指数上涨的主要催化剂 之一。 奥本海默市场策略师约翰·斯托尔茨弗斯（John Stoltzfus）周一在给客户的报告中写道："要实现我们 2026年的目标价，核心在于货币政策、财政政策，以及创新与企业盈利增长的持续推进——这些因素均 已对股价形成支撑，也是明年盈利和营收增长的关键。" 这位策略师还称，前景进一步向好的一点是，若通胀保持可控，美联储明年"可能会再将基准利率下调 一到两次"。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 三家华尔街券商发布的新年股市展望，均传递出一致的看涨信号：美股即将迎来大幅上涨。奥本海默 （Oppenheimer）预测，标普500指数到2026年底将飙升至8100点，较上周五收盘价上涨18%。沃尔夫 研究（Wolf ...

Group 1 - The strongest branch of computing power has formed a VCP structure with optical connections and PCBs, and optical connections have made breakthroughs [1] - If the market index continues to rise, the leading sectors will likely be computing power equipment followed by power equipment, with power equipment experiencing a later and less sufficient pullback [3] - The average stock price index has recently confirmed a situation where the lower limit of the pullback space has been identified, but it is uncertain if the adjustment structure has ended, with the possibility of the box continuing to expand to the right [5] Group 2 - The trading volume has recently broken through the 21-day average volume, initially satisfying the conditions for a momentum reversal, but the price box may not break through immediately [5] - The reliance on small-cap junk stocks for market rallies is unlikely, and attention should be on hard technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as the support levels of insurance and banking sectors [5] - The performance of brokerage firms has been weak, indicating that they may struggle to achieve significant results, despite being favored by retail investors, as institutions show little interest [5]

每经记者｜曾子建 每经编辑｜袁东 12月9日早盘，港股市场小幅高开后窄幅震荡。 截至发稿，恒生指数报25747.45点，下跌17.31点，跌幅0.07%。 恒生科技指数报5640.40点，下跌22.15点，跌幅0.39%。 焦点公司方面，歌礼制药（HK01672）高开高走，截至发稿涨超23%。 消息面，歌礼制药公告称，评估口服小分子GLP-1受体（GLP-1R）激动剂ASC30治疗肥胖症的13周II期研究（NCT07002905）取得积极的顶线结果。 东吴证券表示，港股短期还处在左侧阶段，反弹还需等待。从中长期配置来看，当前位置有吸引力。其一，市场预计12月美联储会降息，但如果采取鹰派降 息，港股反弹力度可能不及预期。其二，市场已对中央经济工作会议进行前瞻，当前投资者态度相对中性。若会议内容超预期，市场会反弹。其三，从中长 期看恒生科技当前具有配置意义，AI科技龙头估值处在合理区间，一旦有新催化，资金启动，恒生科技会有明显反弹。 封面图片来源：图片来源：每经记者 李星 摄 曲少杰指出，2026年港股上涨的核心驱动力将来自上市公司业绩的向好。具体来看：科技股中，具备强AI能力与技术门槛的企业业绩确定性最高；消费 ...

Market Overview - On December 8, the Hang Seng Index fell below the 26,000-point mark, closing down 319 points (1.2%) at 25,765 points, with a total market turnover of HKD 206.2 billion[1] - The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of a 0.25% rate cut[1] - The net inflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 1.54 billion[1] Sector Performance - Chinese brokerage stocks rose after the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a slight easing of regulations, with Huatai Securities up 5.2%, China Merchants Securities up 2.8%, and CITIC Securities up 1.7%[1] - Major Chinese banks saw declines, with China Construction Bank down 4.0%, China Merchants Bank down 3.5%, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China down 3.5%[1] - Pop Mart's stock dropped 8.5% amid concerns over declining sales growth for Labubu products[1] U.S. Market Insights - The Dow Jones Index closed down 215 points (0.4%) at 47,739 points, while the Nasdaq fell 32 points (0.1%) to 23,545 points, and the S&P 500 dropped 23 points to 6,846 points[2] - Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 0.25% on Thursday, supported by a milder core PCE index[2] Macroeconomic Data - China's total import and export value in November was USD 549.03 billion, up 4.3% year-on-year, with exports rising 5.9% and imports increasing by 1.9%[3] - The trade surplus was USD 111.68 billion, exceeding market expectations of USD 103.1 billion[3] - In the real estate sector, new home sales in 30 major cities fell 33.3% year-on-year, with significant declines across all city tiers[3] Industry Trends - The automotive sector anticipates increased lithium battery production in December, leading to improved industry conditions and price increases, with CATL up 3.3% and Ganfeng Lithium up 7.0%[4] - The healthcare sector saw a 1.5% decline in the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, despite the addition of 114 new drugs to the national medical insurance list, benefiting several major pharmaceutical companies[4] - The renewable energy and utility sectors experienced declines, with major utility stocks falling between 1.0% and 2.8%[5]

12月9日，港股开盘走势分化，其中恒生指数上涨15.61点，涨幅0.06%报25780.97点；恒生科技指数下 跌6.48点，跌幅0.11%报5656.07点；国企指数上涨0.42点报9083.11点；红筹指数下跌4.27点，跌幅0.1% 报4214.01点。 盘面上，科网股涨跌不一，阿里巴巴涨超1%，快手跌超1%；中资券商股高开，国联民生涨超1%；创新 药概念部分上涨，歌礼制药涨超14%；汽车股活跃，奇瑞汽车涨超2%。生物医药股、汽车股、海运股 普涨，万国黄金集团涨3.6%。半导体股、煤炭股多数走低，中国中冶大跌近6%。 企业新闻 东风集团股份(00489.HK)：前11月累计销量169.7万辆，同比下降约0.3%。其中新能源汽车销量为 489,203辆，同比增长约39.1%。 新天绿色能源(00956.HK)：前11月累计完成发电量1336.89万兆瓦时，同比增加8.04%。其中11月完成发 电量166.2万兆瓦时，同比增加24.45%。 龙源电力(00916.HK)：前11个月累计完成发电量约6909.64万兆瓦时，同比增长0.41%。 绿地香港(00337.HK)：前11个月合约销售约68.23亿元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market opened lower with all three major indices declining, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.26% - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.21% [1] Sector Performance - Sectors that performed well included: - Aquaculture - Computing power leasing - Deep-sea technology - Heavy machinery - Sectors that underperformed included: - Brokerage firms - Satellite internet - GPU - Cultivated diamonds - Precious metals - Semiconductors [1]

Group 1 - CICC reports that the A-share market has been on a steady upward trend for over a year, and the underlying logic for valuation remains intact despite market fluctuations [1] - CICC has developed a methodology for identifying market "tops" to complement its previous research on "bottoms," forming a framework for market stability monitoring [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities expresses optimism about the valuation recovery of the brokerage sector, noting that the current PB valuation is only 1.36 times [2] - The brokerage sector has underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 15 percentage points from the beginning of the year to December 5, indicating significant room for valuation improvement [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities highlights a record high success rate of 88% in the recent national medical insurance negotiations, with 114 out of 127 products successfully included in the new drug list [3] - The new commercial health insurance innovative drug directory is expected to provide additional growth opportunities, with 19 drugs included in the first version [3] - The report emphasizes the increasing international competitiveness of China's innovative drug pipeline and the rapid development of the industry driven by new technologies [3]