资产配置 | 定期报告 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-63326320 | | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | | 美/日风险评价上升，贵金属及低风险特征 | 2026-01-26 | | --- | --- | | 权益占优：20260126 多资产配置周报 | | | CTA 策略仍强，指增和中性策略回暖： | 2026-01-22 | | 20260119 多策略及理财配置周报 | | | 风偏继续向中间集中：20260119 多资产配 | 2026-01-20 | | 置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of January 27, the latest market financing balance is 27,059.04 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 2.12 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 17 industries experiencing an increase in financing balance, while 14 industries saw a decrease [1]. Industry Financing Balance Changes - The communication industry had the highest increase in financing balance, rising by 1.11 billion yuan to a total of 1,339.67 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable increases include: - Pharmaceutical and biological: increased by 0.44 billion yuan to 1,696.03 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 0.41 billion yuan to 1,494.54 billion yuan - Public utilities: increased by 0.29 billion yuan to 569.69 billion yuan [1]. - Conversely, the following industries experienced significant decreases in financing balance: - Machinery and equipment: decreased by 1.70 billion yuan to 1,418.93 billion yuan - Automotive: decreased by 0.96 billion yuan to 1,242.31 billion yuan - National defense and military: decreased by 0.68 billion yuan to 1,040.47 billion yuan [2]. Percentage Changes in Financing Balance - The coal industry recorded the highest percentage increase in financing balance at 1.09%, totaling 149.82 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable percentage increases include: - Communication: 0.84% - Steel: 0.79% - Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery: 0.59% [1]. - Industries with the largest percentage decreases include: - Machinery and equipment: decreased by 1.19% - Comprehensive: decreased by 1.10% - Oil and petrochemicals: decreased by 0.89% [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-28 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

1月27日晚间，京基智农（000048.SZ）发布的股份回购进展公告受到市场关注。公告显示，公司已累计 回购股份543.80万股，占总股本的1.03%，成交金额共计0.94亿元。其中，最高成交价为19.50元/股。 科技布局打开估值空间，双轮驱动战略清晰 真正的看点在于京基智农在科技赛道的突破。公司锚定具身智能万亿蓝海，拟控股国家级专精特新"小 巨人"汇博机器人，后者2026-2028年承诺年收入增速不低于30%，年内将发布2款人形机器人。 据悉，"十五五"规划将机器人产业作为培育新质生产力的关键领域，并置于重要位置。国家层面正大力 推动其创新发展与融合应用，为公司此次布局提供了明确的政策支持和发展机遇。 根据此前规划，公司拟在6个月内使用1亿至2亿元自有资金回购股份，用于股权激励或员工持股计划。 实际上，早在1月7日，京基智农就已启动首次回购，以999万元购入65.48万股。 此次快速有效的股份回购，不仅反映出管理层对公司内在价值的坚定信心，更以真金白银的实际行动， 向资本市场传递了积极的估值信号。 值得关注的是，公司已获1亿元专项贷款支持，这一融资将进一步强化公司实施回购的财务能力与执行 决心。 财务实力 ...

格隆汇1月28日丨沙河股份(000014.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，为提高上市公司资产质量，提升业务规 模和盈利水平，公司拟收购晶华电子70%股权，本次交易尚处于筹划阶段，具体交易方案尚需进一步协 商、推进和落实，最终能否达成合作并签署正式协议尚存在不确定性。 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in 2025 is supported by new momentum and anti-involution policies, with a marginal increase in profit growth rate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year [2][3] - In December 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year, reversing from negative to positive with an 18.4 percentage point recovery [3] - The industrial added value in December 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, driven by resilient exports and high-tech industries [3] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises in 2025 was 5.31%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, but the decline was less severe than in the previous months [3] - Among 41 industrial sectors, 16 sectors achieved positive profit growth in 2025, with notable growth in black metal smelting, non-ferrous metal mining, and high-tech manufacturing [4] - The end of three consecutive years of negative profit growth for industrial enterprises is attributed to support from new momentum sectors and the implementation of anti-involution policies [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds remaining stable and other types of bonds seeing growth [6][8] - Credit bond yields generally declined, with credit spreads for medium and short-term notes narrowing [8] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with a focus on adjusting strategies in response to market fluctuations and maintaining a cautious approach to ticket strategies [8] Fund Research - The number of equity funds increased to 7,583 by the end of Q4 2025, with a total scale of 94,572.12 billion, a decrease of 277.04 billion from the previous quarter [11] - Active equity funds saw a slight decrease in positions, with a notable decline in mixed and flexible allocation funds [11][12] - The allocation in the main board decreased significantly, while the allocation in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market increased [12] - The top five industries with increased holdings included non-ferrous metals and communications, while electronics and biomedicine saw a decrease [12] Industry Research - The geopolitical situation has led to strong performance in gold prices, with expectations for continued upward pressure due to uncertainties [14][15] - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to steady growth policies and demand in shipbuilding and construction [15] - The copper industry is anticipated to maintain a favorable outlook, supported by supply constraints and demand from key sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [16] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from improved supply dynamics and demand from the new energy vehicle sector [16] - The rare earth industry is projected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export control upgrades and strategic importance [17]

Core Insights - The report from the China Index Academy indicates that the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 key cities dropped to 13,016 yuan per square meter in December 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.36% [1][5][8] - In contrast, the average price of new residential properties in December 2025 was 17,084 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.28% and a year-on-year increase of 2.58% [1][5] - The rental market experienced a downturn, with the average rent in 50 cities falling to 34.16 yuan per square meter per month, down 0.60% month-on-month and 3.62% year-on-year [1] Second-hand Housing Market Performance - In December 2025, the total number of second-hand housing transactions in major cities showed varied performance, with cities like Nanchang and Shenyang experiencing significant year-on-year increases of 24.3% and 13.6%, respectively [2][3] - Conversely, cities such as Shenzhen and Beijing saw declines in transaction volumes, with year-on-year decreases of 2.6% and 3.3%, respectively [3][8] - The overall trend indicates that while some cities are recovering, many are still facing challenges in the second-hand housing market [5][9] New Housing Market Trends - The new housing market saw structural price increases in December 2025, driven by the introduction of high-end improvement projects in cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai [1][5] - The average price of new homes rose by 0.28% month-on-month, contrasting with the decline in second-hand housing prices [1][5] Rental Market Analysis - The rental market remains subdued, with average rents declining in December 2025, reflecting low demand during the traditional off-peak season [1][5] - The rental price drop of 0.60% month-on-month and 3.62% year-on-year indicates ongoing pressure in the rental sector [1][5] Price Index Overview - The cumulative decline in second-hand residential prices across 100 cities in 2025 was 8.36%, with the decline in second-tier cities being the most pronounced at 9.08% [5][8] - The report highlights that first-tier cities experienced a smaller decline of 6.72%, indicating a relative resilience compared to lower-tier cities [5]

重要新闻提示 宁波富邦：预计2025年归母净利润同比增长3099.59%—4379.43% 中微半导：发布涨价通知函，决定对MCU、Norflash等产品进行价格调整，涨价幅度15%—50% 嘉事堂：股东正筹划公司控制权变更事项，今起停牌 今日提示 科创板新股恒运昌（688785）、北交所新股农大科技（920159）今日上市 鸣鸣很忙今日在港交所挂牌上市，成为港股"量贩零食第一股" 央行公开市场今日有3635亿元逆回购到期 财政部、央行：今日进行2026年中央国库现金管理商业银行定期存款（一期）招投标 国新办今日上午10时举行新闻发布会，国务院国资委副主任庞骁刚介绍2025年国资央企高质量发展情 况，并答记者问 财经新闻 1.国家统计局1月27日发布数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额73982亿元，比上年 增长0.6%。 2.中国人民银行1月27日消息，中国人民银行日前召开2026年反洗钱工作会议。会议要求，2026年要充 分认识反洗钱工作面临的新形势新要求，认真做好当前和今后一段时期反洗钱重点工作。 具体看，一是持续推进反洗钱条线从严治党，坚持以高水平党建引领业务工作。 二是全力做好第五 ...

来源：股市直击 1月28日（星期三），今日报刊头条主要内容精华如下： 中国证券报 2200亿GPU龙头收入大幅预增！ 1月27日晚间，沐曦股份发布业绩预告称，得益于产品及服务获得下游客户广泛认可与持续采购，公司 预计2025年度实现营业收入16亿元至17亿元，同比增长115.32%至128.78%。公司预计2025年度归属于 母公司所有者净利润将出现亏损，预计亏损6.5亿元至7.98亿元，与上年同期相比，亏损收窄43.36%至 53.86%。 黄金不香了？FOF头号重仓生变 近日，随着公募基金2025年四季报披露完毕，公募FOF的最新持仓动向浮出水面。值得注意的是，在 2025年的前三个季度，华安黄金ETF一直是FOF重仓持有数量最多的基金，而2025年四季度末，被海富 通中证短融ETF取代。此外，鹏扬中债-30年期国债ETF、平安中债-中高等级公司债利差因子ETF、富国 中债7-10年政策性金融债ETF等债券型ETF获FOF重仓的数量居前。 行情强劲势头下 资源品LOF限购升级！ 资源品行情强劲势头下，近期，相关LOF限购进一步升级。1月27日晚间，华安基金发布公告称，为保 证基金的平稳运作、保护基金持有人 ...

每经记者｜陈晴 每经编辑｜陈柯名 王瀚黎 王晓波 国际贵金属延续强势，其中黄金再创历史新高，现货黄金盘中最高触及5187.96美元/盎司，截至发稿时，现货黄金涨3.33%，报5174.95美元/盎司； COMEX黄金期货涨1.87%，报5177.4美元/盎司。现货白银涨8.11%，报112.32美元/盎司。 欧洲主要股指收盘涨跌不一，英国富时100指数上涨0.58%，德国DAX指数下跌0.1%，法国CAC40指数上涨0.27%。 标题点睛 当地时间27日，消息人士称，近日，美国向以色列通报其针对伊朗可能采取军事行动的准备情况。美方表示，相关准备工作预计将在两周内完成，并可能 在未来数月内出现适合采取行动的"机会窗口"。美方同时强调，这并不意味着必须等所有准备工作结束后才会采取行动。如果美国总统特朗普下达命令， 美方行动可能提前进行，但目前这一选项并未被视为迫在眉睫。不过美以官方尚未证实上述消息。 1月27日晚间，美元指数大跳水。美元指数一度跌至95.51创2022年2月份的最低水平，本月累计跌幅扩大至超2.2%。 国际贵金属延续强势，其中黄金再创历史新高，现货黄金盘中最高触及5187.96美元/盎司，截至发稿 ...