五粮液：五粮液计划6个月内增持5-10亿元。集团公司计划自公告之日起6个月内通过深圳证券交易所交 易系统增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于5亿元，不超过10亿元。截至公告日，五粮液集团公司持有公 司股份7.95亿股，占公司总股本的20.49%。在本次公告前的12个月内，五粮液集团公司累计增持公司股 份340.67万股，占公司总股本的0.09%，增持金额为人民币5亿元。 投资建议 招商证券发布研报称，本周受贸易摩擦影响板块震荡。从Q1情况来看，高端白酒需求相对稳定，次高 端酒企表现分化，整体边际改善。食品板块需求企稳，调味品、乳制品、啤酒等板块轻装上阵全年业绩 改善确定性更高，而零食、饮料赛道仍然延续高景气。当前茅台、五粮液（000858）纷纷出台回购方 案，龙头底线价值清晰，白酒位置进可攻退可守，食品把握趋势向上及高景气赛道。内需有望发力背景 下，该行重申板块配置价值。 招商证券主要观点如下： 核心公司跟踪：重啤维持高位分红，中炬全年稳健收官 重庆啤酒（600132）：分红维持高位，结构表现依旧承压。公司24年高档酒结构表现仍然承压，带动吨 价同比下滑，税收政策及诉讼费用影响盈利，收入/归母净利润同比-1.2%/ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer goods industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The policy to boost domestic demand is strong, and quality companies are showing signs of recovery, suggesting an active investment approach [3] Summary by Sections Beer Industry - The beer sector is witnessing a stabilization in demand, with leading companies starting to clear inventory risks and actively exploring new channels [12] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight improvement in restaurant consumption, with beer sales expected to grow due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand [9][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on quality beer leaders such as China Resources Beer, Qingdao Beer, and Yanjing Beer, with an emphasis on the upcoming peak season for inventory replenishment [14][17] Snack Industry - The snack sector is experiencing varied sales performance, with a notable growth in konjac-based products, indicating a shift towards high-value offerings [21][22] - Companies are enhancing product quality and competitive pricing to adapt to the current consumer trend towards value [22] - Recommended stocks include Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi, which are expected to maintain strong growth due to their market positioning and product offerings [29] Dairy and Beverage Industry - The dairy sector is expected to see a supply-demand turning point by the end of 2025, driven by policy support and market adjustments [32][41] - Beverage companies, particularly those focusing on functional drinks, are projected to maintain high growth rates, with East Peak Beverage being highlighted for its strong market position and growth potential [45][46] - Investment focus should be on companies that can leverage the recovery in consumer demand and improve operational efficiency [41][45] Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with a stabilization in demand and a competitive landscape pushing for efficiency improvements [56] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to focus on inventory reduction, with profitability likely to improve as the market stabilizes [57] - The recommendation is to monitor the recovery in restaurant demand and the associated supply chain dynamics [50][56]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strong willingness to boost domestic demand through policy measures, with signs of recovery observed in quality companies, suggesting an active investment strategy [3][4][12]. Group 1: Beer Industry - The beer sector is witnessing a stabilization in demand, with leading companies managing to clear inventory risks early, which positions them favorably for growth [12][14]. - In Q1 2025, beer consumption showed positive growth, driven by the Spring Festival and a low inventory start for major brands, with national sales expected to increase [9][10][12]. - Investment recommendations focus on high-sensitivity beer stocks, such as China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer, as well as strong individual stocks like Dongpeng Beverage and Haitian Flavoring [6][14][17]. Group 2: Snack Industry - The snack market is characterized by significant differences in product performance, with strong sales in gift boxes during the Spring Festival and notable growth in konjac-based snacks [21][22]. - Leading snack companies are enhancing product quality and competitive pricing to adapt to the current consumer trend towards value [21][22]. - The report suggests focusing on high-growth companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are expected to achieve over 20% revenue growth in 2025 [29][26]. Group 3: Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is anticipated to face a supply-demand turning point by the end of 2025, as upstream inventory is expected to clear, leading to improved market conditions [32][41]. - Policies aimed at boosting birth rates are expected to further stimulate dairy consumption, with significant government support for families [38][40]. - Investment focus should be on leading dairy companies that maintain high levels of investor returns, such as Yili and Mengniu, which are expected to stabilize their profit margins [41][45]. Group 4: Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to show high growth potential, particularly for companies like Dongpeng Beverage, which is expanding its market presence and product offerings [46][48]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of consumers favoring functional beverages, with projected growth rates for various beverage categories [48][49]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that are effectively leveraging their distribution networks and product innovation to capture market share [46][48]. Group 5: Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption [51][57]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with a significant number of restaurant closures indicating a need for efficiency improvements within the supply chain [57][58]. - The report suggests that the restaurant supply chain sector may see profitability improvements as inventory levels normalize and demand stabilizes [58][59].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Three Squirrels is focused on developing investment plans and advancing its "high-end cost-performance" strategy, following a strong performance in the previous year with significant revenue and profit growth [2][8]. Financial Performance - Three Squirrels reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan in the previous year, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.30% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 408 million yuan, up 85.51% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 319 million yuan, marking a 214.33% increase [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.25 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders [2]. Sales Channels - In 2024, offline sales generated revenue of 3.215 billion yuan, a growth of 48.62%, accounting for 30.27% of total revenue [3]. - The offline distribution revenue grew by 80%, while revenue from offline stores increased by 12.85%, reaching 404 million yuan [3]. - As of the end of last year, Three Squirrels had opened 333 offline stores, with 296 being national snack stores and 37 alliance stores [3]. Business Model - The company operates a mixed model of franchising and direct sales, with a focus on franchising to build brand strength through flagship stores [4]. - The chairman emphasized the importance of market-oriented product offerings to enhance store operations and meet consumer demands [4]. Capital Operations - Three Squirrels announced multiple capital operations, including investments of up to 100 million yuan for new brand incubation and up to 200 million yuan for supply chain development [6]. - The company is also looking to acquire control of Hunan Ailing Food Technology Co., Ltd. and Future Has Arrived (Tianjin) Technology Development Co., Ltd., which have over 1,800 offline stores combined [6]. New Brand Development - The company has established subsidiaries for new brand incubation, focusing on pet food and coffee products [7]. - Plans to enhance supply chain capabilities in the southern region and expand overseas operations in Southeast Asia are also in progress [7]. Hong Kong Listing Plans - Three Squirrels is planning to list in Hong Kong to support global supply chain expansion, digital capability enhancement, and offline channel development [8]. - The chairman addressed investor concerns regarding the clarity and direction of the company's various operations, reaffirming the commitment to a "high-end cost-performance" strategy and a "full-category + full-channel" approach [8].

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the food and beverage industry is positive, with expectations of returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [29] Core Views - The food and beverage sector demonstrates resilience amid increasing export uncertainties and expectations for domestic demand policies to be strengthened [5][15] - The SW food and beverage index rose by 0.20%, ranking 11th among 31 sub-industries, with snacks, soft drinks, and beer leading the gains [5][15] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and strong performance amid the current market conditions [10][18] Sub-industry Summary Alcoholic Beverages - The white wine sector shows significant configuration value under domestic demand policy expectations, with a focus on companies with stable fundamentals and strong earnings certainty [6][18] - The SW white wine index decreased by 0.71%, with external risks heightened due to unexpected tariffs [6][20] - Recommended companies include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiansiyuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu, all rated as "Buy" [3][27] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is expected to see strong performance in Q1, with a focus on high-growth categories and channels [22] - The SW snacks, soft drinks, and beer sub-sectors led the gains, with respective increases of 8.12%, 6.85%, and 3.64% [5][22] - Companies such as Youyou Foods, Zhujiang Beer, and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted as key performers to watch in the upcoming earnings reports [22] Snacks - The snacks segment is under continuous observation for category explosions and new channel opportunities [8][23] - There is a growing consumer demand for health-conscious and innovative products, with companies like Weilong and Yuyou Foods positioned to benefit from new product introductions [8][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's "high-end cost-performance" strategy has shown effectiveness, with revenue returning to over 10 billion yuan, achieving 10.622 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 408 million yuan, up 85.51% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 319 million yuan, a significant increase of 214.33% [1] - The company has successfully expanded its all-channel business, enhancing terminal competitiveness. In 2024, online channels generated 7.407 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for approximately 70% of total revenue. The Douyin channel saw an 82% increase, reaching 2.188 billion yuan, while Tmall and JD platforms generated 1.937 billion yuan and 1.34 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.45% and 11.95% [2] - The company is advancing a multi-brand matrix layout and a comprehensive supply chain strategy, which has improved product competitiveness. The sub-brand Xiao Lu Lan achieved nearly 1 billion yuan in sales in 2024, and new brands are being incubated, contributing to a diversified product portfolio [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027 to be 13.534 billion yuan, 17.808 billion yuan, and 21.381 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 31.6%, and 20.1%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 504 million yuan, 695 million yuan, and 879 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 23.5%, 38%, and 26.5% [4][8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21, 16, and 12 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels has successfully achieved its goal of returning to a revenue scale of over 10 billion yuan, with a reported revenue of 10.622 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 49.30% and a net profit of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% [1][3][4] Revenue Recovery - After four consecutive years of revenue decline, Three Squirrels has returned to the 10 billion yuan revenue scale, having previously been the first snack company to reach this milestone in 2019 [2][3] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 20 billion yuan within three years, as stated by the founder [2] Business Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue across various product categories, with nuts contributing 5.366 billion yuan, up 40.76%, and baked goods generating 1.501 billion yuan, growing at 38.26% [3] - The main brand's revenue increased by 50.57% to 9.825 billion yuan, while the children's snack brand, Little Deer Blue, achieved 794 million yuan in revenue, a 35.01% increase [3] Channel Optimization - The revenue from third-party e-commerce platforms accounted for 69.73% of total revenue, reaching 7.407 billion yuan, while offline distribution grew over 80% to 2.641 billion yuan [4] - The company opened 333 offline stores, with 296 of them being national snack stores contributing 346 million yuan in revenue [4] Strategic Focus - Three Squirrels has adopted a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, which has helped the company recover from previous downturns [5][6] - The company has increased its self-produced ratio from 35% in 2022 to 62% in 2024, enhancing its gross margin to 24.25% [6] Global Expansion Plans - To accelerate its global expansion, Three Squirrels plans to issue H-shares and apply for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its global brand recognition and supply chain [7] - The company has begun to realize overseas sales, amounting to 696,800 yuan, which represents 0.01% of total revenue [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance of the food and beverage index showed a 0.4% increase from March 24 to March 28, ranking third among primary sub-industries, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. The leading sub-industries included meat products (+2.9%), dairy products (+2.1%), and beer (+2.0%) [4][11][12] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant performance differentiation among companies, with several reporting improved earnings. For instance, Shuanghui Development experienced comprehensive profit improvement, while Tianwei Foods exceeded previous profit forecasts due to strong demand and reduced raw material costs [4][11] - The outlook for the first quarter of 2025 suggests that the industry is at a bottoming phase, with expectations of gradual performance recovery in subsequent quarters. It is recommended to increase allocations in the liquor, beer, and snack sectors [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index outperformed the market with a 0.4% increase, ranking third among industries. Key performers included Miaokelando, Guangming Meat, and Jiahe Foods, while Maikui'er, Lianhua Holdings, and Xiwang Foods faced declines [12][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For example, the price of fresh milk was 3.1 yuan/kg, down 12.5% year-on-year, while pork prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 20.9 yuan/kg [18][21] - The price of imported barley fell by 10.4% year-on-year, which may alleviate cost pressures for beer companies [27][28] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Ganyuan Foods, and Ximai Foods, with each showing strong growth potential and strategic advantages in their respective markets [5][49]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a stable configuration value for the liquor sector, indicating a defensive characteristic despite being in a bottoming phase [1][11]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a downtrend in market sentiment, similar to the period from late 2014 to 2015, with a slight decline in overall sales due to weak demand [1][10]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by approximately 50 yuan week-on-week, with the original box price falling below 2200 yuan, indicating a soft demand in the off-season [1][10]. - The report anticipates that the price of Feitian Moutai will fluctuate between 2100 and 2200 yuan before the upcoming peak seasons of Mid-Autumn and National Day, while monitoring the recovery of business demand [1][11]. - Despite the price drop, market sentiment towards the liquor sector remains stable, with expectations for a smooth performance in Q1 2025 for most liquor companies [1][11]. - The report highlights potential offensive opportunities in the liquor sector due to ongoing policy implementations that may bolster economic recovery expectations [2][11]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is in a downtrend but shows signs of stabilization, with a focus on high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from resilient consumer demand [2][11]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end liquor with solid pricing and market positioning, as well as cyclical stocks with potential for growth [2][11]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is entering a peak season, with an upward turning point in market sentiment. The report expresses optimism for improved performance in 2025, particularly for companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage [3][12]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive due to the release of new channels and product categories, with companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi expected to perform well [3][13]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at a low point, with strong growth in customized meal preparation services benefiting from the trend towards standardized dishes in chain restaurants [3][4][13].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.30% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 408 million yuan, an increase of 85.51% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 319 million yuan, up 214.33% [1] - A cash dividend of 1.25 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) is proposed for all shareholders [1] Product Strategy - The company is accelerating the launch of snack products to build a "full-category" product matrix under the "high-end cost performance" strategy, with over 1,000 new SKUs launched in 2024 [2] - The core category of nuts generated revenue of 5.366 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.76%, accounting for 50.52% of total revenue [2] - The company is expanding its multi-brand matrix, with the infant food brand "Little Deer Blue" achieving revenue of 794 million yuan, representing 7.48% of total revenue [2] Sales Channels - Online channels continue to show strong performance, with revenue of 7.407 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 49.60%, accounting for 69.73% of total revenue [3] - The Douyin channel contributed 2.188 billion yuan, growing 81.73% year-on-year, while Tmall and JD contributed 1.937 billion yuan and 1.340 billion yuan, growing 11.45% and 11.95% respectively [3] - Offline distribution is officially ramping up, with offline channel revenue reaching 3.215 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.62%, accounting for 30.27% of total revenue [3] Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 24.25%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, driven by scale effects and improved supply chain efficiency [4] - The net profit margin improved to 3.84%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant enhancement in profitability [4] - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 537 million yuan, 747 million yuan, and 972 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.34, 1.86, and 2.42 yuan [4]