Group 1 - The market sentiment for polysilicon futures has been bullish due to expectations of "anti-involution" policies, leading to a continuous rise in prices since July [1] - On July 22, polysilicon futures reached a new high with a price increase of 8.99%, while the average price of N-type raw materials rose from 33 yuan/kg to 43 yuan/kg, a 30% increase [2] - The main futures contract price increased from 33,090 yuan/ton to 40,855 yuan/ton, reflecting a 23% rise [2] Group 2 - Over 30 polysilicon concept stocks in the A-share market have shown significant price increases since July, with stocks like Hongyuan Green Energy and Daqo New Energy rising over 30% [3] - Year-to-date, 11 concept stocks have increased by over 10%, with Leshan Electric leading at a 141.99% increase [3] - In Q1, polysilicon profits improved due to a decline in raw material prices, while Q2 saw a narrowing of losses despite a continued drop in polysilicon prices [3] Group 3 - Tongwei Co. is expected to report a net loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of the year, with a Q1 loss of 2.593 billion yuan [4] - Several companies, including Baofeng Electric and Yuyuan New Materials, are projected to see significant profit increases, with growth rates of 229.15% and 179% respectively [4] - The polysilicon sector is anticipated to be one of the first to complete supply-side adjustments, potentially concentrating profits among leading companies [4] Group 4 - More than half of the polysilicon concept stocks have seen increased financing since July, with Tongwei Co. and others receiving over 1 billion yuan in net buying [5] - Nine concept stocks are expected to see profit growth in 2025, with Daqo New Energy, Longi Green Energy, and Tongwei Co. projected to have net profit increases of 82.44%, 76.66%, and 56.44% respectively [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation of non - ferrous and precious metals on July 22, 2025, covering multiple metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, etc. [1][2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Review - London gold reached a five - week high, closing up 1.4% at $3396.67 per ounce; London silver hit a one - week high, closing up 1.97% at $38.897 per ounce. Affected by the overseas market, Shanghai gold futures rose 0.76% to 785.76 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 1.85% to 9420 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.64% to 97.853, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.3802%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, rising 0.07% to 7.1707. [2] Important Information - EU diplomats are exploring broader counter - measures against US tariffs but prefer negotiation; the US Treasury Secretary is more concerned about high - quality deals; Indonesia's 19% US tariff may take effect by August 1. A US Republican congressman accused Powell of perjury, and the Fed added a video tour of its headquarters renovation on its website. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 97.4% and in September is 41.4%. [2] Logic Analysis - With the approaching of reciprocal tariffs, market concerns resurfaced. Trump's pressure on Powell also increased market unease and loosened the expectation of the Fed maintaining high rates. [2] Trading Strategy - For the precious metals market, consider holding long positions for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [4] Group 3: Copper Market Review - The night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 79770 yuan per ton, up 0.64%, and the SHFE copper index added 689 lots to 514,000 lots. LME copper closed at $9867 per ton, up 0.74%. LME inventory increased by 100 tons to 122,000 tons, and COMEX inventory rose by 1023 tons to 248,000 tons. [6] Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a growth - stabilizing plan for ten key industries. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,000 tons, up 15.15% month - on - month and 9.23% year - on - year; scrap copper imports were 183,244.238 tons, down 1.06% month - on - month but up 8.49% year - on - year. [6] Logic Analysis - The expected supply - side reform boosts market sentiment, but the current consumption is in the off - season, and the upside of copper prices is limited. [8][9] Trading Strategy - For copper, the short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [12] Group 4: Alumina Market Review - The night - session of alumina 2509 contract rose 118 yuan to 3430 yuan per ton, up 3.56%. Spot prices in different regions also increased. The price of thermal coal at Jinzheng Northern Port also went up. [11] Important Information - The government will promote the construction of a unified national market and eliminate backward production capacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, and the winning bid price was 3430 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from last week. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE were 6922 tons, unchanged from the previous day. A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong resumed production after maintenance, and a company in Guizhou will have a 10 - day maintenance. As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.92 million tons, with 93.85 million tons in operation, up 300,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 83.1%. [11][14][15] Logic Analysis - The expected policy of eliminating backward production capacity and low warehouse receipts drive up the futures price. The supply - demand of alumina remains in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the import market after the futures price rises. [16] Trading Strategy - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be strong but volatile. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [17] Group 5: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 100 yuan per ton to 20880 yuan per ton. On July 21, the spot prices in East, South, and Central China all increased. [19] Important Information - The national aluminum ingot inventory increased by 9000 tons from last Thursday. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 2804 tons to 63744 tons on July 21. From January to June, the completed floor area of housing decreased by 14.8%, and in June, it decreased by 2.15% year - on - year. New US tariffs may take effect in early August, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. In June, the export of aluminum products decreased, and the import of aluminum ingots decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. On July 20, a 50,000 - ton capacity of an electrolytic aluminum project in Baise entered the restart stage. [20][21][22] Logic Analysis - The new US tariffs in early August bring uncertainty, and domestic policy expectations are also a factor. The negative feedback in the fundamentals continues, but the demand in the off - season may not be too weak, and the market's optimistic sentiment about the domestic policy of eliminating backward production capacity supports the aluminum price. [22] Trading Strategy - For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is expected to be strong and volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [23] Group 6: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 120 yuan to 20220 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions all increased. [25] Important Information - In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry was 19551 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan from May. The industry had a theoretical loss of 41 yuan per ton. As of July 17, the weekly output of cast aluminum alloy increased by 2300 tons to 142,500 tons, and the weekly output of ADC12 increased by 4000 tons to 79,400 tons. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply of alloy ingot enterprises is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is supported by motorcycle parts orders but weak in automobile parts orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost and aluminum price, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures. [26] Trading Strategy - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to consider spot - futures arbitrage when the price difference is above 300 - 400 yuan for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options. [27] Group 7: Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market rose 0.73% to $2844.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 contract rose 0.39% to 22875 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc index position decreased by 1896 lots to 236,500 lots. The spot market was weak, with low trading volume. [29] Important Information - As of July 21, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 92,700 tons, down 40 tons from July 14 and 80 tons from July 17. In June 2025, the import of zinc concentrates was 330,000 tons, down 32.87% month - on - month but up 22.42% year - on - year; the import of refined zinc was 36,100 tons, up 34.98% month - on - month and 3.24% year - on - year; the export of refined zinc was 1900 tons, with a net import of 34,100 tons. The export of galvanized sheets and die - cast zinc alloys increased, while the export of zinc oxide increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. [30][32][33] Logic Analysis - The zinc price may rebound in the short - term due to macro and capital factors, but in the long - term, the supply of zinc ore is sufficient, the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the consumption is in the off - season, so the domestic social inventory may continue to accumulate. [33] Trading Strategy - For zinc, the short - term price may be strong, and it is recommended to go long in the short - term. After the macro sentiment fades, consider shorting at high prices according to the inventory accumulation. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [34] Group 8: Lead Market Review - The LME lead market rose 0.17% to $2015 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2509 contract rose 0.18% to 16995 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead index position decreased by 351 lots to 98,500 lots. The spot price of SMM1 lead increased by 100 yuan per ton, and the transaction improved. [37] Important Information - As of July 21, the SMM five - region lead ingot inventory was 71,300 tons, up 7900 tons from July 14 and 2300 tons from July 17. A large - scale secondary lead smelter in North China will resume production in early August, affecting the July output by about 2000 tons. In June 2025, the import of lead - acid batteries was 486,100 units, up 14.73% month - on - month and 8.51% year - on - year; the export was 18.7446 million units, down 6.69% month - on - month and 20.53% year - on - year. [38] Logic Analysis - In the short - term, the supply of lead ingots may improve, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises may increase in the traditional peak season. The lead price is supported by the cost and consumption expectations, and may be strong under the improving macro environment. [38] Trading Strategy - For lead, it is recommended to hold long positions for the unilateral strategy, sell put options for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options. [39] Group 9: Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose 265 to $15510 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 300 to 207,976 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2509 rose 1830 to 123,700 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 6896 lots. The premiums of Jinchuan, Russian nickel, and electrowon nickel changed differently. [41] Important Information - Nornickel lowered its 2025 nickel production forecast to 196,000 - 204,000 tons. Lifezone Metals released a feasibility study report on its Kabanga nickel project, which is expected to produce 902,000 tons of nickel per year. In June 2025, China's unforged nickel imports were 17,200 tons, down 2.67% month - on - month but up 130.76% year - on - year; the refined nickel exports were 10,100 tons, down 27.41% month - on - month and 2.01% year - on - year. The net import of unforged nickel in June was 7072 tons. [42][43] Logic Analysis - The market is optimistic about the stimulus policy in the second half of the year. Nornickel's production cut helps relieve the oversupply. The fundamentals of nickel are not prominent, and the price may rebound in the short - term but the increase may be limited. [46] Trading Strategy - For nickel, the price may rise in the short - term following the macro environment. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options. [47] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2509 contract rose 35 to 12905 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 5967 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range. [49] Important Information - In June 2025, Indonesia's exports of 300 - series stainless steel products to Taiwan region of China decreased sharply. The environmental assessment of an 80,000 - ton stainless steel cold - rolling project in Guangxi was approved. A project of Guangdong Guangqing Metal Technology Co., Ltd. to improve the quality of stainless steel and build a continuous casting machine will start construction in September 2025 and is expected to be put into operation in March 2026, with an annual output of 400,000 tons of 400 - series stainless steel billets. [49] Logic Analysis - The market is optimistic about the stimulus policy, and the stainless steel price is expected to be strong in the short - term. However, the actual demand is not optimistic, and the market is trading on the macro logic. [50] Trading Strategy - For stainless steel, the price is expected to rise in a volatile manner for the unilateral strategy, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [52] Group 11: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9260 yuan per ton, up 4.99%. Spot prices also increased significantly. [54] Important Information - A fire broke out at Shandong Zibo Dongyue Organic Silicon Material Co., Ltd., which has a methyl chlorosilane monomer production capacity of 600,000 tons per year. [54] Logic Analysis - Leading enterprises are reducing production, and the复产 capacity in the southwest is small - scale. There is a supply - demand gap in industrial silicon before the leading enterprises resume production. The inventory is mainly in the trading sector, and the futures price increase forms a positive feedback with the spot price. In the long - term, the market reversal depends on the leading enterprises'复产 rhythm. [54] Trading Strategy - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach for the unilateral strategy, buy protective put options for options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts for arbitrage. [55] Group 12: Polysilicon Market Review - No specific market review information is provided. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. The US solar manufacturing and trade alliance has filed an anti - dumping/anti - subsidy investigation against India, Indonesia, and Laos. [59] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market is full of rumors, and the price increase can be transmitted to the downstream. The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 40,000 and 47,000 yuan per ton. The increase in industrial silicon price drives up the cost of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term until the number of warehouse receipts increases. [59][60] Trading Strategy - For polysilicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the number of warehouse receipts for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the far - month contracts for arbitrage. [60] Group 13: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract of lithium carbonate rose 1760 to 71,280 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 17,000 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 210 to 9969 tons. The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate also increased. [62] Important Information

文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 图：新一轮的PPI转正之前会发生什么 基于过去国内经济周期的有限经验，企业-居民存款增速差反转领先于PPI同比14个月， M1反转领先于PPI同比6个月，产能利用率回落领先于PPI同比0-3个月，煤炭等商品的价 格可信度高，可作为标识出清的路牌。 商品显著反弹，直指4月初的缺口回补。继6月煤炭的安全限产&进口收紧，7月多晶硅行 业协会就过度竞争展开纠偏落地后，市场展开了一轮价格修复，此前诟病反弹中道崩殂或 昙花一现的基本依据是仍旧缺乏有效需求的支撑，以至于更多观察到现实层面的挑战—— 现实状态呈现双重困境：一方面，暂无技术显著进步推升经济增长的明显证据；另一方 面，财政政策强度受限于多重条件，包括目前极高的财政杠杆使用、已现拐点的城镇化 率，以及部分国家因人口老龄化、结构失衡和增速放缓形成的需求瓶颈。 行情有自我延续或自我实现的趋势，最近1.2万亿的雅江水利工程提供了未来新增基建并 拉动总需求的可能性。接踵而至的需求预期——雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程（建成可覆盖全 国3%的用电需求）于2025年7月19日举行开工仪式，李强总理出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The polysilicon futures market saw a daily limit today, mainly due to the rising coal and energy prices, which led to an increase in costs. Meanwhile, the photovoltaic industry has been a major focus in the anti - involution conference, resulting in a significant increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and inventory levels, if enterprises resume production and the downstream cannot absorb the high - priced products, a negative feedback loop may form. It is advised to wait and see or consider buying put options instead of chasing the high prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 49,105 yuan/ton, with a change of 3,445 yuan. The price difference between August and September was 225 yuan, a decrease of 175 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 192,179 lots, an increase of 20,122 lots. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 39,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,050 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,810 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding type polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,655 yuan/ton, an increase of 395 yuan. The spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly production was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons. The monthly export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, an increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.98 US dollars. The monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of solar cells was 6.7386 million kilowatts, a decrease of 318,300 kilowatts. The average daily price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, a decrease of 14,424,120 units. The monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, a decrease of 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, an increase of 4.34 [2]. Industry News - The deputy director of the National Data Bureau stated that the bureau will promote the market - oriented reform of data elements and the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative. In the polysilicon industry, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some undergoing maintenance. The self - disciplined production reduction measures did not cause significant fluctuations in production capacity. The demand side was affected by the anti - involution conference, with a significant decline in production capacity but a gradual recovery in price. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down, and the demand has weakened marginally [2]. - The National Energy Administration issued a notice on verifying coal production to ensure stable coal supply [2]. 观点总结 - The overall demand for polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The futures market of polysilicon rose to the daily limit today, mainly due to the increase in coal and energy prices, which led to an increase in costs. The photovoltaic industry remains a major focus in the anti - involution conference, resulting in a significant increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and inventory levels, if enterprises resume production and the downstream cannot absorb the high - priced products, a negative feedback loop may form. The spot price did not rise today. It is recommended to wait and see or consider buying put options instead of chasing the high prices [2].

中财期货指出，后期来看，上游产品价格大幅上涨后将进一步降低装机收益，或影响新增装机容量。此 外，三季度光伏装机量环比或将显著走弱，关注组件价格上涨后终端装机的接受度。上周多晶硅期货价 格创历史高位后，市场传闻部分硅料厂进场套保，关注硅料厂套保动作及仓单注册情况。考虑到反内卷 政策对盘面不定时的利多提振，短期内预计多晶硅价格高位震荡，后期若终端接受度低，下游价格开始 下跌，则多晶硅价格或将高位回落。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，供应方面，多晶硅企业本周产量总体增加，部分企业增产但也有停产检修 情况，自律减产措施未显著扩大产能波动。需求端来看，受到反内卷会议影响，产能大幅下滑，但是价 格逐步恢复。下游光伏组件排产已下调至一定区间，需求边际转弱。硅片企业随着利润企稳，预计整体 产量下滑将结束，电池片企业也有减产计划。预计整体而言，多晶硅需求端依旧面临着较大压力，今日 上游工业硅继续上行，但多晶硅现货价格目前暂未跟随，后续预计受到现货压制，多晶硅有望在下半周 开始出现回落，操作上，暂时观望，待空头信号出现，或者布局看跌期权。 目前来看，多晶硅行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于多晶硅后市行情将如何运行，相关机 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant recovery in commodity prices, driven by policy support and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, indicating potential profitability recovery for companies in affected industries [1][2] - Recent price increases in commodities such as polysilicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and alumina suggest a positive shift in the market, with polysilicon futures rising over 28% in the last 10 trading days and lithium carbonate surpassing 70,000 yuan per ton [1] - The Chinese government's policies focusing on "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" are aimed at addressing low-price competition, enhancing consumption, and ensuring macroeconomic stability, respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The collaboration between "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" is essential for creating a conducive environment for economic recovery, with consumer spending contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [2] - The article suggests that with continued policy support, the commodity sector may transition from cyclical growth to sustainable growth, leading to a healthier industrial ecosystem and promoting high-quality economic development [2]

Group 1 - Recent surge in commodity prices, with polysilicon futures rising over 28% in the last 10 trading days, lithium carbonate futures exceeding 70,000 yuan/ton, and coking coal and glass futures increasing by 20.26% and 14.44% respectively [1] - The price recovery indicates an improvement in the supply-demand dynamics, suggesting potential recovery in corporate profitability [1] - Key drivers of this price increase stem from ongoing policy initiatives aimed at promoting economic stability and growth, including measures to combat disorderly low-price competition and enhance domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The policies of "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" are interrelated and mutually reinforcing, with each supporting the others [2] - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, indicating a continuous release of consumption potential [2] - With policy support, commodities may transition from cyclical growth to sustainable growth, leading to a healthier industrial ecosystem and promoting high-quality economic development [2]

多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 45660 | 1810 8-9月多晶硅价差 | 400 | 165 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 172057 | 16518 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 36400 | 1245 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 46000 | -750 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2150 | 1100 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 9260 | 565 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12197.89 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices indicates a volatile market, with prices reaching a peak of 45,850.0 yuan and currently at 45,345.0 yuan, reflecting a 2.65% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures suggests that the polysilicon market will primarily experience range-bound fluctuations, with stable supply and slight production increases expected in North China [2] - Donghai Futures views the polysilicon market as showing a strong upward trend, with recent price increases in N-type and P-type materials, indicating a resilient market despite recent price drops [3] - Jin Xin Futures notes that the polysilicon market is transitioning from an upward trend to high-level fluctuations, emphasizing the need for investors to monitor policy changes and supply-demand dynamics closely [4] Group 2: Price Trends - The latest N-type polysilicon price is quoted at 47,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.1%, while P-type material is priced at 30,500 yuan/ton [3] - Recent price increases in N-type silicon wafers and battery components suggest a continued upward pressure on polysilicon prices, despite some short-term volatility [3] - The market is currently experiencing a low level of downstream demand, with no new orders being signed, which may affect future price stability [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].