不知道你们发现没有，现在聊起买房，那感觉跟三五年前完全是两码事了。 以前是闭眼冲，想着"今天不买，明天更贵"；现在是睁大眼睛反复掂量，琢磨"这房子我买了，真的适合住吗？"。 市场的风向，是真的变了。 如果你仔细观察，会发现眼下的二手房市场，被两个关键词牢牢占据：一个是"以价换量"，另一个是"K型分化"。 先说"以价换量"。 这四个字听起来有点专业，说白了就是：想卖房？不拿出点"诚意价"来，门儿都没有。 最新的市场数据很能说明问题。 根据机构统计，今年三季度全国重点城市的二手房成交量，比起二季度是有所回落的。为啥呢？一方面，七八月本来就是楼市的传统淡季，大家忙着避暑度 假，看房的心思自然淡了。 另一方面，各种松绑政策的"药效"过了劲，市场的真实反应——信心不足，就显露出来了。 但有意思的是，如果你跟去年同期比，成交量其实还是涨的。 这种"环比降、同比升"的拧巴状态，恰恰印证了市场正在"以价换量"的通道里艰难前行。背后的推动力是什么？是房价实实在在的下跌。数据显示，百城二 手房价格已经连续跌了快三年半了！ 9月份同比又跌了超过7%。房东们要想把房子换成现金，除了在价格上"割肉"，似乎没有更有效的办法了。 所以，" ...

我朋友张姐家在北京拥有三套住房，她告诉我："三套房每年仅基础持有成本就要4万多，加上两套还在还贷的月供，一年下来差不多花掉20万。以前觉得 多买房准没错，现在有时候真觉得压力不小。" 上个周末，我去拜访多年不见的大学同学刘哥。他在城市打拼十几年，买了三套房产，一直被大家视为"人生赢家"。让我意外的是，刘哥却满脸愁容，说 这几套房子反而成了他的负担。"每月光物业费、房贷就要1万多，加上维修、税费等支出，现在房子不升值了，持有成本太高了。"他甚至考虑出售一套 来减轻压力。听完刘哥的遭遇，我不禁陷入沉思：拥有多套房的家庭，未来真的会面临什么样的挑战？ 近年来，类似刘哥这样的困惑不在少数。根据住建部住房发展研究中心2025年发布的《中国城镇住房持有情况调查报告》，全国城镇家庭中拥有2套及以 上住房的比例约为22.3%，这部分人群正面临着与过去截然不同的住房市场环境。 从历史上看，拥有多套房产曾是财富增值的可靠途径。住房在过去二十年经历了快速增值期，许多家庭通过持有多套房产获得了可观的财富增长。然而， 房地产市场正在发生深刻变化，这种模式正面临前所未有的挑战。 最直观的变化是房价增速放缓甚至下调。根据国家统计局数据，2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion on real estate in China highlights a significant shift in market dynamics, emphasizing the need for a realistic understanding of the current situation rather than an optimistic outlook on property prices [1][3][7]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The demand for real estate is shrinking, and a return to value is inevitable, as acknowledged by industry experts [3][5]. - China's population has experienced negative growth for three consecutive years, with a decrease of 1.39 million by the end of 2024, and over 21% of the population is now over 60 years old [3][5]. - The peak demand for housing is expected to decline as the last cohort of the baby boom generation born in 1997 approaches 30 years of age [5]. - The imbalance between housing supply and demand is evident, with an average housing area of 43 square meters per person, while the per capita GDP is less than half of that in Europe [5][6]. - The urbanization rate is nearing 70%, limiting future growth potential, and the previous model of demand driven by rural migration is no longer sustainable [5][6]. - The high leverage ratio of over 70% among residents indicates a significant depletion of purchasing power [5]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Market Outlook - There is a fundamental shift in policy direction, with the government focusing on developing the rental market, allocating 2 trillion yuan to encourage local governments to convert existing housing into rental properties [6][13]. - The sentiment around housing prices stabilizing is challenged, with experts suggesting that if individuals cling to unrealistic expectations of skyrocketing prices, they will struggle to maintain confidence [7][11]. - Despite some short-term increases in transaction volumes in cities like Shanghai, the overall price pressure remains unresolved, with a 7.38% year-on-year decline in second-hand residential prices across 100 cities as of September 2025 [11][13]. - The policy focus since 2025 has been on "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the market, aiming to prevent systemic risks rather than inflating property prices [13]. - The ultimate goal is to allow individuals to choose renting over being forced to buy, thereby reducing the burden of housing costs on household expenditures and freeing up other consumption capabilities [13].

销售说，以前再差的房子挂牌一两个星期都能快速成交，如今挂牌半年以上无人问津成为常态，有些郊区的房子甚至降幅高达50%也无人问津。 这并不是因为房子已经没有了价值，核心还是在于市场供需关系发生了根本性的逆转。二手挂牌量激增与购房需求快速萎缩同时出现， 就拿上海来说吧，外环区域二手房挂牌量同比激增42%，杭州钱江世纪城板块降价房源占比高达60%以上。 我经历过2015年的狂飙，也目睹了2023年的转折。今天我想抛开那些宏大叙事，跟你聊聊身边真实的故事——我的老同学张伟（化名）。 老同学张佳，在上海有4套房，还在电话那头炫耀身家，昨天在电话里头却是万般的无奈："怎么办？我第三套房挂了大半年，看房的人都没几个。" 这不是个别现象，数据显示，全国二手房挂牌量突破730万套，白城二手房价同比跌幅高达7%以上，今明两年，像张佳这样持有"多套房"的家庭，将不得 不面对这3个问题。 资产流动性冻结，纸上富贵难以变现 随着房价下行，市场挂牌量激增，多套房持有者最先感受到的是：资产流动性正在迅速冻结。 然而，购房主力军却在悄悄发生变化，90后，00后群体规模相比70后，80后足足减少了数千万。再加上城镇近40%以上的家庭拥有2套甚 ...

- The style rotation model is constructed based on the Dongwu quantitative multi-factor system, starting from micro-level stock factors. It selects 80 underlying factors as original features, including valuation, market capitalization, volatility, and momentum, and further constructs 640 micro features. The model replaces the absolute proportion division of style factors with common indices as style stock pools, creating new style returns as labels. A random forest model is trained in a rolling manner to avoid overfitting risks, optimizing features and obtaining style recommendations. The framework integrates style timing, scoring, and actual investment[9][4] - The performance of the style rotation model during the backtesting period (2017/01/01-2025/09/30) shows an annualized return of 16.41%, annualized volatility of 20.43%, IR of 0.80, monthly win rate of 58.49%, and a maximum drawdown of 25.54%. When hedging against the market benchmark, the annualized return is 10.54%, annualized volatility is 10.85%, IR is 0.97, monthly win rate is 55.66%, and the maximum drawdown is 8.79%[10][11] - The style rotation model's latest timing directions for October 2025 are value, large market capitalization, momentum, and low volatility[2][19] - The latest holdings of the style rotation model for October 2025 include indices such as CSI Central Enterprise Dividend (ETF code: 561580.SH), CSI Bank (ETF code: 512700.SH), CSI Film and Television (ETF code: 159855.SZ), CS Battery (ETF code: 159796.SZ), and CSI All Real Estate (ETF code: 512200.SH)[3][19]

TACO 重现，怎么看市场？ - 固收+20251013 摘要 中美关系虽带来短期波动，但两国经济依存度高，完全脱钩不现实，对 债券市场影响不应过度放大。当前政策环境稳定，四季度宽松空间有限， 建议利率逢高买入，避免追涨。 建议配置 30 年国债、地方债及 5 年以上二级资本债。公募基金等负债 端不稳定投资者不宜持有过多超长久期债券，信用债底仓以中高等级为 主，配合 10 年国开行债券。 信用债策略偏向哑铃型，短端关注两年左右品种，长端关注 5 年二永债 和 30 年超长利率债、超长信用债。二永债与同期限普通信贷相比具优 势，目前比价水平适宜买入。 超长信用债利差未明显压降，但大型银行净买入迹象表明其配置价值显 现，可配置思维看待。交易型策略可适当博弈，因其边际价值回升。 当前信用债市场整体位置较理想，超长信用债流动性或受利率上行影响， 但配置角度问题不大。交易策略上，负债端稳定可适当边际搏击，推荐 短期信用债，城投债易选出高收益品种。 Q&A 如何看待近期中美关系变化对债券市场的影响？ 近期中美关系的变化确实引发了市场的一些波动。上周五晚间特朗普对中国发 难，随后又在推特上表达友好态度，这种反复无常的行为导 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from October 6th to October 10th, 2025. The national high - frequency fundamental index shows an expanding year - on - year increase, while the bull - bear signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged. Different sectors have different trends, such as a slight decline in real - estate sales, an expanding increase in infrastructure investment, etc. [1][8][9] Summary by Directory Total Index - The national high - frequency fundamental index is 128.1 points (previous value: 128.0 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.9 points (previous increase: 5.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The bull - bear signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value: 5.0%). [1][8][9] Production - The high - frequency industrial production index is 127.3 (previous value: 127.2), with a year - on - year increase of 5.5 points (previous increase: 5.4 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The electric - furnace operating rate slightly declined, with the current rate at 59.6% (previous value: 60.3%). [1][8][14] Real - Estate Sales - The high - frequency real - estate sales index is 42.3 (previous value: 42.4), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 points (previous decrease: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The land premium rate of large and medium - sized cities increased, with the current rate at 4.8% (previous value: 1.9%), while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased to 11.4 million square meters (previous value: 25.7 million square meters). [1][9][22] Infrastructure Investment - The high - frequency infrastructure investment index is 121.8 (previous value: 121.5), with a year - on - year increase of 8.1 points (previous increase: 7.3 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The daily average pig - iron output slightly declined to 241.5 tons (previous value: 241.8 tons). [1][9][36] Export - The high - frequency export index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a year - on - year increase of 1.6 points (previous increase: 1.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The CCFI index continued to decline to 1015 points (previous value: 1087 points), and the RJ/CRB index decreased to 299.3 points (previous value: 300.3 points). [1][9][39] Consumption - The high - frequency consumption index is 120.6 (previous value: 120.5), with a year - on - year increase of 3.6 points (previous increase: 3.5 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The daily average box office of movies slightly declined to 14,803 million yuan (previous value: 15,858 million yuan). [1][9][50] CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast remains at 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%). The average wholesale price of pork continued to decline to 18.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 19.3 yuan/kg). [2][9][57] PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%). The crude - oil price slightly declined, with the Brent crude - oil futures settlement price at 65 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 66 US dollars/barrel), while the copper and aluminum prices continued to rise. The LME copper spot settlement price is 10,718 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10,358 US dollars/ton), and the LME aluminum spot settlement price is 2,753 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,685 US dollars/ton). [2][9][60] Transportation - The high - frequency transportation index is 131.5 (previous value: 131.3), with a year - on - year increase of 10.0 points (previous increase: 9.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities declined to 3,097 million person - times (previous value: 3,550 million person - times). [2][9][72] Inventory - The high - frequency inventory index is 162.4 (previous value: 162.3), with a year - on - year increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.6 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electrolytic - aluminum inventory declined to 13.6 million tons (previous value: 18.8 million tons). [2][9][78] Financing - The high - frequency financing index is 239.2 (previous value: 238.6), with a year - on - year increase of 30.2 points (previous increase: 30.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The net financing of local government bonds is negative, with a value of - 246 billion yuan (previous value: 632 billion yuan). [2][9][89]

证券日报网讯华侨城A10月13日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至9月30日，公司股东总户数为 105798户。 ...

经深房中协统计，2025年第41周（10月6日~10月12日）全市二手房（含自助）录得1219套，环比增长233.1%，双节假期后，二手房录得量出现快速回 升，节后2天单日录得量均超300套。 据深圳市房地产信息平台数据，2025年第41周全市新房（预售+现售）成交量受双节假期影响波动变化。 单位:套 深圳二手房录得量前10片区(10.6-10.12) o 10 20 30 40 50 60 龙岗:龙岗中心城 56 罗湖:布心 46 宝安:沙井 33 龙岗:双龙 33 龙岗:布吉中心 32 南山:蛇口 30 宝安:新安 30 龙华:龙华中心 28 南山:前海 28 坪山:坪山 27 | 深圳新房成交情况(预售+现售) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025W40 类别 | 2025W41 | 环比变化 | | 新房总量 1277 | 440 | -65.50% | | 997 新房住宅量 | 349 | -65.00% | 从区域看，整体变动不大，继续保持原有格局；从片区看，龙岗中心城片区持续保持市场热度。 ...

Core Insights - New City Holdings reported a contract sales amount of approximately 1.484 billion yuan in September [1] - The total sales area for the same month was about 211,300 square meters [1] Summary by Category Financial Performance - The contract sales amount for September reached approximately 1.484 billion yuan [1] - The sales area recorded was around 211,300 square meters [1]