Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to mixed economic indicators from the US, with a recent decline in copper prices following lower-than-expected CPI data [5] - Aluminum prices are supported by continuous inventory depletion and tight spot supply, while alumina prices have seen a slight decline [5] - Lithium prices are under pressure at the bottom, with a slight increase in carbonate lithium prices, but the market is awaiting further production cuts from mining sources [5] - Cobalt prices have seen a slight increase, with attention on potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could impact supply [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview 1.1 Important Information - US May CPI was reported at 2.4%, slightly below expectations, indicating potential economic impacts [9] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including Israeli airstrikes on Iran, may affect market stability [9] 1.2 Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.79% [11] - The sector's performance was led by magnetic materials, gold, and cobalt, while copper, lithium, and aluminum lagged [11] 1.3 Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 19.13, with a slight increase of 0.59 [18] - The PB_LF for the sector is 2.21, reflecting a 0.07 increase [18] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices saw a decline of 1.44% in London and 1.17% in Shanghai, with significant inventory reductions [23] - The copper smelting profit margin has worsened, indicating financial pressures on producers [23] 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices increased by 1.88% in London and 1.79% in Shanghai, supported by inventory depletion [34] - The profit margin for aluminum producers improved significantly due to rising prices [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased slightly, while zinc prices saw a decline, with mining profits narrowing [48] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices remained stable, while nickel prices experienced a slight decline, with profitability for domestic nickel enterprises shrinking [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.75%, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased [72] - The profitability of lithium refining remains negative, indicating challenges in the sector [72] 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have seen a slight increase, with domestic refining margins improving [84]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 3391.40 with a change of 61.70 [1] - The latest price of London Silver is 36.18 with a change of -0.02 [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 1269.00 with a change of 51.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1072.00 with a change of 10.00 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 9680.00 with a change of -97.50 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest trading data for certain items are - (not specified), 1226.15, 937.91, 14729.08, 1347.54, 2, 2 respectively [1] - The changes in trading data are - (not specified), -3.67, 3.72, 0.00, 0.00, 1.00, 0.00 respectively [1] Group 3: Precious Metal Ratios and Related Information - Information about COMEX silver inventory,上期所白银库存, gold ETF持仓, silver ETF持仓, 上金所白银库存, 上金所黄金递延费支付方向, 上金所白银递延费支付方向 is presented but specific values are not fully shown [1] - The report also mentions升贴水、库存、ETF持仓变化 [2] Group 4: Data Source - The data in the report is sourced from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper futures price fluctuated downward and returned to the previous trading range. The monthly spread on the futures market widened, and the tightness in the spot market remained unchanged. The domestic social inventory decreased by 0.47 thousand tons compared to Monday. With the reduction in domestic smelting production and imports, the domestic copper supply decreased. However, the current off - season for downstream demand and the strengthening of the spot - futures price spread suppressed demand. Under the short - term situation of weak supply and demand, the social inventory is expected to continue to decline slightly [6]. - The LME copper inventory dropped to 117 thousand tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 58.3%. The LME inventory is expected to continue to decline. The high back structure of LME0 - 3 will keep the domestic import window closed and the export window open. Both Shanghai and LME copper face the risk of low inventory [6]. - The Kamoa copper mine lowered its 2025 annual production guidance by 150 thousand tons. Given the current tight supply of copper ore, the reduction in large - mine production will make the global copper ore market more tense in the second half of the year, and the tightness at the raw material end is expected to be transmitted to the smelting end, leading to production cuts by smelters. Fundamentals are still favorable for copper prices [6]. - The US CPI in May was lower than expected, opening up the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. However, the tense situation in the Middle East and the progress of Sino - US negotiations have increased market caution. In the short term, copper prices will continue to fluctuate under the influence of sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market showed a downward trend, with the monthly spread widening. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the spot premium remained flat. The supply decreased due to smelting cuts and reduced imports, while demand was suppressed by the off - season and the strong spot - futures spread. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the high back structure affects import and export windows. The reduction in Kamoa copper mine's production guidance will tighten the copper ore market, and the fundamentals support copper prices, but market sentiment causes short - term fluctuations [6]. 3.2. Industry News - Cobalt Blue completed the feasibility study of its Halls Creek project in Western Australia, with a phased development plan for copper and zinc production. The Onedin deposit will be mined through open - pit methods and processed to produce copper, while zinc will be recovered as monohydrate zinc acid. The Sandiego deposit will be mined underground to produce copper and zinc concentrates. The project will use a photovoltaic solar grid with battery energy storage for power supply [9]. - Ivanhoe's Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper complex in Congo resumed operations in its western area on June 7 after flood control measures, and the eastern area's mining is expected to start soon [9][10]. - On June 11, the government of Guixi City held a project promotion meeting, inspecting multiple copper - related projects such as the regeneration copper - based new material industrial park, copper production and recycling projects, and semiconductor and electronic material projects, and coordinating to solve project - related problems [10].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年06月13日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅震荡，布伦特08合约收跌0.62%。在周日美伊在阿曼的第六轮核谈之前，双方仍 在进行极限心理战博弈,周四夜间以色列对伊朗发动先发制人的空袭,中东地区大规模冲突风险仍 对油价构成支撑。原油短期震荡偏强，尽管宏观及供需因素不支撑油价向上进一步突破，投资者仍 可买入低成本看涨期权应对极端地缘风险,待地缘局势明朗后再布局高位空单。 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布5月PP1年率录得2.6%符合预期，月率0.1%略不及预期；周度初请失业金人数24.8万人 为2024年10月5日当周以来新高，整体数据偏有利于降息方向，不过市场预期美联储短期内仍将保 持观望姿态。中东地缘冲突再起,媒体报道以色列开始对伊朗采取军事行动。黄金震荡中维持回调 买入思路,白银已打开上方空间。 【铜】 隔夜铜价震荡，沪铜夜盘收阴。艾芬豪下调刚果金kk矿产量目标至37-42万吨，年初为增产至55万 吨,去年铜产量43万吨。这将缩减今年铜精矿增量至少10万吨级。美国5月PPI增速同样不及预期, 市场预计联储9月降息概率大。昨日国内现铜79075元,周内社 ...

当前时点如何看铜铝金 20250612 摘要 美国经济逐渐摆脱滞胀风险，高频通胀数据优于预期，非农就业数据强 劲，预计金价维持震荡，等待数据松动迹象倒逼联储开启第二轮降息， 或于三季度启动，金价有望突破 3,500 美元，向 3,800~4,000 美元进 发。 权益市场信心不足，对传统周期担忧反映在股票估值上。4 月起权益比 商品表现更强，是资本市场对去美元化信用逻辑的强化认知。若金价突 破 3,500 美元，将带动权益一线标的进入第二轮估值盈利共振上攻。 建议左侧增配黄金股头部及弹性标的，看好 9 月行情。衰退和降息逻辑， 叠加去美元化线索，一线标的打开盈利估值共振空间后，二三线可再上 台阶。一线首推 AAA 港股及赤峰黄金，二三线关注中润资源、鹏欣资源 （A 股）以及万国黄金国际、灵宝黄金（港股）。 近期商品交易受经济预期修复、美元走弱和基本面强劲影响。铝作为工 业金属中短期基本面最健康的品种，历史库存最低且去化较快；铜则处 于历史次低位库存且去化正常。 Q&A 当前贵金属市场的整体表现如何？未来走势预测是什么？ 过去一个月，贵金属市场处于箱体震荡区间，上沿在 3,500 美元左右，下沿在 3,200 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on Shanghai copper [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The tight spot market situation in both Shanghai and LME copper is expected to continue, providing support for copper prices [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, once again surpassing 79,000. The domestic spot market remained tight, and the spot premium increased instead of decreasing as the delivery approached, but the monthly spread on the futures market narrowed [8] - The LME market continued to reduce inventories. On Wednesday, LME inventories decreased by 950 tons to 119,000 tons, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure widened to 84. It is expected that LME copper inventories will continue to decline, and the 0 - 3 back structure is also expected to widen, which may open the window for domestic refined copper exports. Coupled with the decline in domestic refinery production, the further narrowing space of the Shanghai copper back structure is limited [8] 3.2 Industry News - From January to March 2025, Jinchuan International's copper production increased by about 6.8% year - on - year to 13,914 tons, mainly due to the unstable power supply at the Ruashi mine. Cobalt production decreased by about 86.6% year - on - year to 71 tons, and copper sales decreased by about 9.5% year - on - year to 11,957 tons. The company continued to be suspended from trading [9] - On June 10, JinkoSolar held a press conference for its TOPCon technology and Tiger Neo 3.0 commercial solution white paper. The Tiger Neo 3.0 product is planned for mass production in the second half of the year, with a power efficiency of 670W/24.8%. The combined production capacity of Tiger Neo 2.0 and Tiger Neo 3.0 by the end of 2025 will be 40 - 50GW+. The company's R & D deputy general manager said that TOPCon batteries and their upgraded technologies still have broad efficiency improvement space [9] - In May, LME's Russian copper inventories decreased by 27,350 tons, including 14,800 tons of "Category 2" Russian copper, which British companies and citizens are prohibited from buying according to UK sanctions. This transaction highlights the tight situation in the LME copper market, where overall inventories have dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years [10]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-12 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-06-12 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国 5 月 CPI 同比 2.4%，核心 CPI 环比 0.1% 观点分享： 6 月 11 日美国劳工统计局公布，美国 5 月 CPI 数据全线低于预期：总体 CPI 环比仅上涨 0.1%，不及预期的 0.2%，4 月增幅为 0.2%；CPI 同比小幅上涨 2.4%，符合预期，4 月为 2.3%；扣除波动较大的食品和能源核心 CPI 环比 0.1%，不及预期的 0.2%，较 4 月的 0.2% 有所放缓；同比 2.8%，不及预期的 2.9%，4 月为 2.8%，保持在 2021 年 3 月以来的最低水 平。能源主导整体 CPI 的放缓，汽车、服装价格均出现下滑，玩具、家电受关税影响更直接 的品类价格上涨。数据公布后，市场加大对美联储降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次， 利率互换显示交易员预计美联储在 9 月份前降息的可能性为 75%。在美国众议院筹款委员会 的听证会上，贝森特称通胀数据"非常好"（fantastic），并将其归功于特朗普的政策。在 白 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/11 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 66.93 RMB based on a projected PE of 86x for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the rare earth industry in South China, with diversified operations in copper, tungsten, and other metals. The recovery in rare earth prices in Q1 2025 indicates a turning point for profitability [2][3]. - The implementation of export controls in April 2025 is expected to enhance price elasticity in the rare earth market, with domestic prices recovering to pre-export control levels [2][34]. - The company has significant internal mining resources that could double production, with a strong focus on smelting and magnetic materials [3][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a key platform for rare earth resource integration in Guangdong, with a focus on a diversified non-ferrous metal industry chain [10][14]. - It is controlled by the Guangdong Rare Earth Industry Group, with the actual controller being the China Rare Earth Group [19][20]. Rare Earth Industry - The rare earth industry is experiencing price recovery due to export controls, with domestic prices expected to rise significantly [2][34]. - The implementation of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" in October 2024 will impose stricter controls on imported ores and secondary utilization, enhancing domestic pricing power [44][47]. Rare Earth Business - The company owns several rare earth mines and is expected to increase production from over 2,000 tons to over 5,000 tons with the addition of the ZuoKeng mine [3][18]. - The smelting segment is expected to see a recovery in sales and production in 2024, while the magnetic materials segment is progressing steadily [3][18]. External Assets and Investment Returns - The company has substantial external assets, indicating potential for significant asset injections [3][18]. - The copper and tungsten segments are well-positioned to contribute substantial investment returns, with the Dabaoshan copper mine expected to generate nearly 160 million RMB in investment income in 2024 [3][18]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.62 billion, 14.66 billion, and 15.80 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 262 million, 384 million, and 484 million RMB [4][8]. - The company is expected to achieve significant earnings per share growth, with EPS projected at 0.78, 1.14, and 1.44 RMB for 2025-2027 [4][8].