Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to perform better than the market, with specific focus on the cyclical recovery in beef prices and the potential upward trend in dairy prices [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA's September supply and demand report indicates a reduction in the global corn ending stocks-to-use ratio by 0.10 percentage points, with China's ratio decreasing by 0.34 percentage points [16] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, supported by a tightening supply-demand balance [18] Soybeans - The USDA report shows a reduction in global soybean ending stocks by 0.13 percentage points, with a focus on U.S. trade policies and weather conditions impacting short-term prices [32] - The long-term outlook for soybeans remains positive, with expectations of strong price support in Q4 2025 [34] Wheat - The global wheat supply remains ample, with the USDA projecting an increase in the global ending stocks-to-use ratio by 1.53 percentage points [45] - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize at the bottom, supported by sufficient supply [46] Sugar - The market anticipates a good harvest for the 2025/26 season, but sugar prices may remain weak due to increased import volumes [2] Cotton - The global cotton supply is expected to remain loose, with a slight reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio by 1.09 percentage points [4] - Domestic cotton prices are projected to have room for recovery if macroeconomic conditions improve [4] Beef - The USDA forecasts a reduction in U.S. beef production for 2025, with prices expected to maintain an upward trend [3] - The domestic beef market is showing resilience, with expectations for a cyclical recovery in prices starting in 2025 [3] Dairy - The USDA has adjusted its forecasts for U.S. milk production and consumption upwards for 2026, indicating a potential recovery in domestic dairy prices [4] Pork - The USDA predicts a slight increase in U.S. pork consumption for 2026, with domestic breeding stock remaining stable [7] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with domestic demand anticipated to improve [7] Eggs - The supply of eggs is expected to gradually recover in the second half of 2025, although price pressures are anticipated throughout the year [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in undervalued leaders in livestock, poultry, and feed sectors, including specific companies such as YouRan Agriculture and Mu Yuan Shares [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the bountiful harvest of sweet corn in Shuo Zhou, Shanxi, with over 4,000 acres of corn fields thriving during the autumn season [1][3] - The daily harvesting volume of corn reaches nearly 200 tons, indicating a significant agricultural output [5] - Fresh corn is distributed to various markets across China, including Jiangsu, Hebei, Guangdong, and Sichuan, and is also exported to countries like South Korea [7] Group 2 - The article describes the busy scene in the corn fields, with machinery and workers actively engaged in harvesting and loading operations [5][3] - The visual imagery of the corn fields is depicted as lush and full of ripe corn, symbolizing the joy of harvest [3][1] - The article emphasizes the economic impact of the corn harvest, contributing to local and national markets [7]

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国农业部（USDA）报告显示，截至9月14日当周，美国玉米优良率为67%，高于市场预期的66%，前 一周为68%，上年同期为65%。 ...

科技特派员"传 经送宝" ， 助推 从化白兔村花生 产业高质量发展 _南方+_南方 plus 鳌头镇白兔村成 功举办。 此次培训由从化 区农业技术推广 中心联合鳌头镇 农业办公室共同 组织，汇聚了广 东省农业科学院 作物研究所、植 物保护研究所的 专家，以及鳌头 镇农技员、白兔 村花生种植户代 表、区农推中心 技术员等70余 人。各方人员齐 聚一堂，共同学 习先进种植技 术，探讨如何进 一步打响"从化 白兔花生"的金 为推动广州市从 化区鳌头镇花生 产业向规范化、 标准化方向迈 进，筑牢花生产 品质量安全防 线，进一步擦 亮"从化白兔花 生"这一地方特 色农产品名片， 9月12日，一场 以花生优质高效 生产为核心的技 术培训活动，在 字招牌。 培训现场，广东 省农业科学院作 物研究所研究员 李少雄围绕花生 种植的耕作要 点、需肥规律与 科学施肥技术、 排灌水管理技巧 及苗期管理关键 措施，深入浅出 地讲解了"花生 优质高效生产技 术"。结合白兔 村花生以湿花生 为主的销售市场 特点，他针对性 地向农户推荐了 粤油390、粤油 黑5号等附加值 高的优良品种， 并指导农户根据 不同土壤条件和 花生生长阶段科 学施 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the flourishing gourd cultivation in Emin County, Xinjiang, where local farmer Ilyar is successfully growing and selling gourds, with most already pre-ordered by customers for crafting into art pieces [1] Group 1: Industry Development - The gourd farming industry in Emin County is thriving, with a significant number of gourds being cultivated and pre-ordered for artistic purposes [1] - Local artisans are enhancing their skills in gourd pyrography, transforming gourds into colorful art pieces, which contributes to the local economy [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The gourd pyrography not only increases the income of local villagers but also fosters social connections among them [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Panyu Harvest Festival will take place on September 20-21, 2025, celebrating agricultural abundance and promoting local products and culture [4][59]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Harvest Festival will be held at Huafenghui Commercial Center in Panyu District [5][60]. - The theme of the festival is "Celebrating Agricultural Harvest and Enjoying a Better Life" [61]. - The event aims to boost urban-rural consumption and enhance the sales of local agricultural products [15][19]. Group 2: Activities and Features - The festival will feature a combination of agricultural exhibitions, food experiences, and cultural interactions [12][13]. - There will be five main exhibition areas showcasing Panyu's unique agricultural products, fisheries, flowers, and supportive agricultural products [18][19]. - Attendees can enjoy outdoor cooking and tasting areas, allowing them to sample fresh local produce [28][30]. Group 3: Cultural Integration - The festival will showcase intangible cultural heritage products and traditional food-making demonstrations [37][39]. - It aims to promote the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism, enhancing the cultural soft power of modern agriculture [39]. - Local farmers will be the main focus, with performances by community teams to celebrate agricultural achievements [41][43]. Group 4: Engagement and Participation - The event will include participation from local influencers and online personalities to attract a wider audience [45][52]. - The festival encourages direct communication between consumers and producers, allowing attendees to learn about the stories behind the products [34][35]. - It is positioned as a celebration of hard work and a tribute to a better life, inviting families and friends to join in the festivities [55][63].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have severely impacted U.S. soybean farmers, particularly in North Dakota, who are missing out on billions of dollars in potential sales to China due to a lack of purchase commitments from Chinese buyers [1][2][17]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - North Dakota soybean farmers heavily rely on exports to China, with nearly a quarter of the 4 billion bushels produced annually being exported there [2]. - Last year, China imported approximately $13 billion worth of soybeans from the U.S., a significant increase from $2 billion two decades ago [2]. - Currently, the export commitment for the upcoming soybean harvest is at its lowest level since the 2018-19 season, leading to stagnant soybean prices [2][3]. Group 2: Market Competition - Brazilian soybeans have become increasingly attractive to Chinese buyers, with Brazil supplying 70% of China's soybean imports last year, double the amount from 15 years ago [6][17]. - U.S. soybean prices are currently $0.80 to $0.90 per bushel lower than Brazilian soybeans, but U.S. trade barriers have increased procurement costs for Chinese importers by $2 per bushel [20][21]. - If the current trend continues, U.S. soybean sales to China could drop by 14 to 16 million tons by mid-November [20]. Group 3: Economic Support and Subsidies - The U.S. government has previously provided $23 billion in relief to farmers affected by trade disputes during Trump's first term [15]. - There are discussions about providing similar economic support, but the implementation of such plans is complicated and may take time to benefit farmers [15][16]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" proposes $66 billion over the next decade to support farmers, but many benefits will not be realized until the next harvest season [15][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to lower its soybean export forecast for the 2025/26 season due to ongoing trade disputes, with the current estimate at 46.4 million tons, down from 51.02 million tons the previous year [20]. - Despite the challenges, there remains a significant demand for U.S. soybeans from non-Chinese buyers, particularly during the sales season when competition is limited [21]. - The potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China could significantly improve the outlook for U.S. soybeans [22].

Group 1 - The event held on September 15 focused on the online collective reception day for investors and the collective performance briefing for the first half of 2025 in Hebei [1] - Chenguang Biotech highlighted its subsidiary in Zambia as a crucial part of its long-term strategy, currently managing approximately 120,000 acres of land [1] - The Zambia base is equipped with infrastructure such as roads, irrigation networks, and warehouses, primarily cultivating crops like chili peppers, marigolds, wheat, and corn [1] Group 2 - The chili pepper harvest period is concentrated from September to November, with a focus on direct sales [1] - This initiative is expected to enhance the company's raw material supply capabilities, supporting the sustainable development of its main business [1]

Group 1 - The core issue facing American soybean farmers is the significant loss of orders from China, with the American Soybean Association estimating a loss of 14 to 16 million tons, which is nearly two-thirds of the annual export volume to China [3] - The financial strain on farmers is exacerbated by rising production costs, with fertilizer prices increasing by 45% and fuel costs for agricultural machinery rising by 60%, while soybean prices have dropped nearly 30% compared to three years ago [3] - The trade war initiated during the Trump administration has led to a loss of price competitiveness for American soybeans in the Chinese market, resulting in China turning to Brazil for imports, with 12 million tons of new season soybeans shipped from Brazil to China in the first quarter of 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The trade protection measures intended to benefit American farmers have instead resulted in significant financial burdens for them, as the tariffs have not impacted other countries but have hurt American soybean farmers [4] - The negative effects of the trade war are spreading beyond soybeans, with exports of corn and wheat to China also declining, leading many farmers to consider abandoning farming altogether [5] - The situation highlights the importance of cooperation in trade, as the current crisis demonstrates that protectionist measures do not necessarily protect domestic interests [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on American farmers, particularly in the grain market, as China shifts its imports from the U.S. to Brazil, leading to a drastic decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has seen a dramatic drop in high-quality grain exports to China, with sorghum exports plummeting from over 1.4 million tons to 82,000 tons, a decline of 95% [3][5]. - China has officially approved the import of Brazilian sorghum, with shipments expected to begin in 2025, marking a significant shift in sourcing strategies [3][5]. - The U.S. soybean market is facing its coldest harvest season since the trade war began, with record imports of Brazilian soybeans by China, exacerbating the situation for American farmers [3][5]. Group 2: Market Adaptation - Brazil has capitalized on the opportunity to become a more reliable supplier for China, offering lower land costs, cheaper labor, and improved logistics, which has made it a more attractive partner [5][7]. - The article notes that China's agricultural import structure has diversified significantly in less than seven years, allowing it to find alternative suppliers like Brazil, Argentina, Canada, and Indonesia [7][8]. - The shift in sourcing reflects a broader trend in international trade where reliability and stability in supply chains are prioritized over traditional partnerships [8]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - The ongoing trade war has led to a situation where American farmers feel the brunt of political decisions, with calls for agriculture to remain free from political manipulation [7][8]. - The U.S. Supreme Court's upcoming review of the legality of Trump's tariff policies could have significant financial implications, potentially returning up to $1 trillion in taxes, but the lost market share may not be recoverable [7][8]. - The article emphasizes that the consequences of trade wars often fall on the most vulnerable, such as farmers, who are left to navigate the complexities of international trade without understanding the political landscape [7][8].