Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued. The static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, its valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, domestic demand is currently weak, but its overall valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6] - For rubber, the price has risen recently. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair. After the high - level port inventory is depleted, the styrene price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upwards [15][16] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory depletion. The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [18] - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] - For PX, it is expected to continue de - stocking, and the valuation has support at the bottom, but the upside is limited in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following crude oil after the peak season arrives [21][22] - For PTA, it is expected to continue to build inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following PX after the downstream performance improves in the peak season [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will change from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation is under downward pressure [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.54% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.37, a 0.56% decline, at $65.74; INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.70 yuan, a 1.15% decline, at 489.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.04 million barrels to 426.70 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; SPR replenished 0.23 million barrels to 403.20 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 226.29 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.71 million barrels to 113.69 million barrels, a 0.63% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 19.73 million barrels, a 0.33% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 43.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 17 yuan/ton to 2479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are rising due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO plants. Inland inventories are low due to olefin procurement support. The valuation is high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1747 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [6] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but are expected to bottom out. Overall supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the market is entering the off - season. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory depletion is slow [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, there is a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and Chinese demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 7, 2025, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the previous year. Domestic sales were slow, but exports were good. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the previous year. Semi - steel tire factories had inventory pressure [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons from the previous period, a 0.4% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 804,000 tons, a 0.13% decrease, and the total inventory of light rubber was 485,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao was 487,200 (- 14,000) tons [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 31 yuan to 5016 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4900 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (+ 21) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 151 (- 5) yuan/ton [13] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 79.5%, up 2.6%. The demand - side downstream production rate was 42.9%, up 0.8%. Factory inventory was 337,000 tons (- 8000 tons), and social inventory was 777,000 tons (+ 54,000 tons). Corporate comprehensive profits reached a high for the year, and the valuation was under pressure. Production was at a five - year high, and downstream production was at a five - year low. Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both fell, and the basis remained unchanged [15] - **Analysis**: The macro market sentiment was positive, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level for the same period and had a large upward repair space. The production rate of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the supply was still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the styrene production rate continued to rise. Port inventory decreased significantly. Demand in the low - season was weak [15][16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the valuation had limited downward space. Trader inventory was at a high level, and the support for prices was weakening. Demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the production rate of agricultural film orders was low. There was a plan to put 1.1 million tons of production capacity into operation in August [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [19] - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production rate was expected to recover. Downstream production rates were seasonally declining. Only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity was to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 48 yuan to 6784 yuan, and PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 831 dollars, with a basis of 114 (+ 81) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 (- 20) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: The Chinese production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; the Asian production rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In August, South Korean PX exports to China decreased year - on - year. June - end inventory decreased month - on - month. The PXN was $264 (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was $85 (+ 6) [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4692 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4695 yuan, with a basis of - 13 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 34 (0) yuan [23] - **Analysis**: The PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some plants had load adjustments. The downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased in August. Spot and futures processing fees increased. New PTA plants were put into operation, but demand from the terminal and polyester sectors was weak [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 26 yuan to 4406 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4494 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 50 (- 4) yuan [24] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 68.4%, down 0.2%. The production rate of synthetic gas - based plants increased, while that of ethylene - based plants decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. Downstream production rates were recovering from the off - season but were still at a low level. Import arrivals were expected to be 141,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 37,000 tons [24]

1. PVC, Caustic Soda Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For caustic soda, the overall demand has performed well recently, but there are expectations of increased supply in the future, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement situation of alumina enterprises [5]. - For PVC, the supply - side pressure is increasing, downstream demand is difficult to improve, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the positive impact of coking coal on PVC prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda also remained unchanged at 2600 yuan/ton. The market price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4910 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.4%. The price of SH2601 increased by 41 yuan/ton to 2636 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.6% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate on August 8 was 89.1%, an increase of 1.7% compared to August 1. The total operating rate of PVC was 77.8%, an increase of 6.1% compared to August 1. The profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 150 yuan/ton to - 542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.3% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 8, the operating rate of the alumina industry was 82.6%, an increase of 0.2% compared to August 1. The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry remained unchanged at 85%. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry was 59.3%, an increase of 0.7% compared to August 1. The operating rate of Longzhong sample PVC pipes decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 32.1%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 36.9% [4][5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China was 219,000 tons, an increase of 2.0% compared to July 31. The total social inventory of PVC was 481,000 tons, an increase of 7.3% compared to July 31 [5]. 2. Polyolefin Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the inventory accumulation expectation turns into a flat - inventory expectation. The downstream operating rate is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season. The overall valuation is neutral, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to take profit on the short positions established at 7200 - 7300 around 7000 and continue to hold LP01 [10]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the closing price of L2601 was 7389 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to August 11. The closing price of PP2509 was 7091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to August 11 [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, PP maintenance decreased, and the supply pressure of PE also increased. The downstream operating rate of PP/PE was at a low level, and the social inventory was accumulating, but the downstream raw material inventory had been digested to a relatively low level [10]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the enterprise inventory of PE was 515,000 tons, an increase of 19.09% compared to the previous period; the enterprise inventory of PP was 587,000 tons, an increase of 3.95% compared to the previous period [10]. 3. Crude Oil Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, driven by geopolitics and supply - demand fundamentals. The market is cautious. In the short term, oil prices will remain under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and expand the 10 - 11/12 month spreads [13]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 13, the price of Brent crude oil was 66.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.77% compared to August 12. The price of WTI crude oil was 63.16 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.02% compared to August 12 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The US Department of Energy has raised the expected supply surplus for this year to 1.7 million barrels per day, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, increasing supply pressure. Seasonal demand is weakening, and gasoline and diesel consumption is gradually declining, suppressing the upside of oil prices [13]. 4. Methanol Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inland maintenance of methanol is expected to peak at the beginning of August. Currently, production is at a high level year - on - year. The port has significantly accumulated inventory this week, and the basis is stable. In August, imports are still relatively high, and downstream demand is weak due to low profits. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices in 01 contracts after the near - end contracts weaken significantly [19][20]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the closing price of MA2601 was 2496 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to August 11. The closing price of MA2509 was 2391 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08% compared to August 11 [17]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the enterprise inventory of methanol was 29.3688 (unit not specified), a decrease of 9.50% compared to the previous period; the port inventory was 925,000 tons, an increase of 14.48% compared to the previous period [18]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of domestic upstream methanol enterprises was 73.17%, an increase of 2.28% compared to the previous period; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid enterprises was 89.8%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous period [19]. 5. Urea Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The weak and volatile trend of the urea futures market is driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. High supply pressure persists, and industrial and agricultural demand is weak. Although exports are progressing in an orderly manner, they cannot offset the domestic supply - demand imbalance. It is expected that the market will fluctuate around the 1700 - 1720 range in the short term [27]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 11, the price of Shandong small - particle urea decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of domestic urea on August 8 was 192,100 tons, an increase of 1.05% compared to August 7. The weekly output of domestic urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 1.94% compared to August 1 [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the weekly inventory of domestic urea factories was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 3.24% compared to the previous period; the weekly inventory of domestic urea ports was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 2.03% compared to the previous period [27]. 6. Polyester Industry Chain Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase marginally in August, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken. The upward rebound drive is insufficient, but the downward space is also limited. PX11 is expected to fluctuate between 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [30]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. The basis is running weakly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and conduct reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 at high prices [30]. - **MEG**: The short - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is recommended to lightly buy on dips around 4400 yuan/ton for EGO9 [30]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand drive is limited, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within the range of 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton for PF10 [30]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The inventory is gradually decreasing, and the processing fee has support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy the processing fee on dips in the short term [30]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of POY150/48 was 6730 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of PX futures 2601 was 6712 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton compared to August 11 [30]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of Asian PX was 73.6%, an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous period; the operating rate of PTA was 75.3%, an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous period [30]. 7. Pure Benzene - Styrene Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the port inventory is expected to decrease in August, providing short - term support for prices. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the upward rebound space is limited. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [34]. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply remains high, and there are expectations of some device maintenance. The downstream EPS has reduced production due to high inventory. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. EB09 is expected to fluctuate between 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended near the upper limit [34]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of CFR China pure benzene was 755 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.7% compared to August 11. The price of styrene in East China was 7370 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.0% compared to August 11 [34]. - **Inventory**: As of August 11, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 10.4% compared to August 4; the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 148,800 tons, a decrease of 6.4% compared to August 4 [34]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of Asian pure benzene was 76.0%, a decrease of 1.3% compared to August 1; the operating rate of styrene was 77.7%, a decrease of 1.2% compared to August 1 [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收跌0.92美元，跌幅1.44%，报63.08美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.60美元，跌幅0.90%，报66.11美元；INE主力原油期货收涨5.80元，涨幅1.19%，报495.2元 [1] - 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.36百万桶至7.66百万桶，环比累库4.95%；柴油库存累库0.36百万桶至2.25百万桶，环比累库18.97%；燃料油库存累库0.10百万桶至9.70百万桶，环比累库0.05%；总成品油累库0.72百万桶至19.62百万桶，环比累库3.81% [1] Methanol - 8月12日09合约涨2元/吨，报2391元/吨，现货涨3元/吨，基差 - 14 [4] - 国内开工再度回落，企业利润维持高位，后续供应大概率边际走高；进口卸货速度增快但港口MTO装置停车，港口累库加快；内地受烯烃外采支撑企业库存去化，整体压力较小 [4] - 甲醇估值偏高，下游需求偏弱，价格面临压力，单边受整体商品情绪影响大，建议观望 [4] Urea - 8月12日09合约涨5元/吨，报1727元/吨，现货跌20元/吨，基差 - 17 [6] - 国内开工继续回落，企业利润处于低位，后续预计逐步见底回升，开工同比仍处中高位，整体供应宽松 [6] - 国内农业需求扫尾，进入淡季；复合肥开工因秋季肥生产持续回升，后续需求集中在复合肥和出口端；国内需求整体偏弱，企业库存去化缓慢，同比仍在中高位 [6] - 尿素整体估值偏低，继续回落空间有限，倾向于逢低关注多单等待潜在利多 [6] Rubber - 工业品整体上涨，NR和RU震荡反弹 [8] - 全钢轮胎开工率同比走高，截至2025年8月7日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.98%，较上周走低0.08个百分点，较去年同期走高8.72个百分点，国内走货慢但出口表现好；国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.53%，较上周走低0.10个百分点，较去年同期走低4.21个百分点，半钢轮胎工厂库存有压力 [9] - 截至2025年8月3日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128.9万吨，环比下降0.48万吨，降幅0.4%；中国深色胶社会总库存为80.4万吨，环比降0.13%；中国浅色胶社会总库存为48.5万吨，环比降0.8%；截至2025年8月4日，青岛天然橡胶库存50.12（ - 0.73）万吨 [10] - 现货方面，泰标混合胶14600（ + 50）元，STR20报1805（ + 10）美元，STR20混合1800（ + 10）美元，江浙丁二烯9300（ - 50）元，华北顺丁11500（0）元 [11] - 胶价短期涨幅大，宜中性思路，快进快出；多RU2601空RU2509择机波段操作 [11] PVC - PVC09合约上涨37元，报5047元，常州SG - 5现货价4910（ + 20）元/吨，基差 - 137（ - 17）元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 146（ + 2）元/吨 [11] - 成本端电石乌海报价2325（ - 15）元/吨，兰炭中料价格620（0）元/吨，乙烯825（ + 5）美元/吨，烧碱现货800（0）元/吨；PVC整体开工率79.5%，环比上升2.6%；其中电石法78.7%，环比上升2.6%；乙烯法81.5%，环比上升2.5% [11] - 需求端整体下游开工42.9%，环比上升0.8%；厂内库存33.7万吨（ - 0.8），社会库存77.7万吨（ + 5.4） [11] - 企业综合利润上升至年内高点，估值压力大，检修量减少，产量处五年期高位，短期多套装置投产，下游国内开工处五年期低位，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期可能抢出口，成本端电石企稳但难支撑估值；整体供强需弱且高估值，基本面差，需观察后续出口能否扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复，建议观望 [11] Styrene - 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱；市场宏观情绪好，成本端有支撑，目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间大；成本端纯苯开工小幅回落但供应量偏多，供应端乙苯脱氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行；苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅去库，季节性淡季需求端三S整体开工率震荡下降 [13][14] - 短期BZN或将修复，待港口库存高位去化后，苯乙烯价格或将跟随成本端震荡上行 [14] - 基本面方面，成本端华东纯苯6180元/吨，上涨20元/吨；苯乙烯现货7375元/吨，上涨50元/吨；苯乙烯活跃合约收盘价7322元/吨，上涨72元/吨；基差53元/吨，走弱22元/吨；BZN价差182元/吨，上涨5.5元/吨；EB非一体化装置利润 - 443.7元/吨，上涨54.2元/吨；EB连1 - 连2价差69元/吨，缩小19元/吨；供应端上游开工率77.7%，下降1.20%；江苏港口库存15.90万吨，去库0.50万吨；需求端三S加权开工率39.09%，下降0.85%；PS开工率55.00%，上涨1.70%，EPS开工率43.67%，下降10.58%，ABS开工率71.10%，上涨5.20% [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格上涨，市场期待中国财政部三季度利好政策，成本端有支撑，聚乙烯现货价格上涨，PE估值向下空间有限；贸易商库存高位震荡，对价格支撑松动，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单低位震荡，整体开工率震荡下行 [16] - 短期矛盾从成本端主导下跌行情转移至高检修助推库存去化，8月产能投放压力大，有110万吨产能投放计划，聚乙烯价格短期内由成本端及供应端博弈 [16] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7329元/吨，上涨15元/吨，现货7300元/吨，上涨15元/吨，基差 - 29元/吨，无变动；上游开工83.44%，环比下降1.50%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存51.54万吨，环比累库8.26万吨，贸易商库存6.12万吨，环比累库0.34万吨；下游平均开工率38.9%，环比上涨0.16%；LL9 - 1价差 - 60元/吨，环比缩小10元/吨，建议空单继续持有 [16] Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，山东地炼利润止跌反弹，开工率或将回升，丙烯供应边际回归；需求端下游开工率季节性震荡下行；8月聚丙烯仅存45万吨计划产能投放，季节性淡季供需双弱，成本端或将主导行情，预计7月聚丙烯价格跟随原油震荡偏强 [17] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7091元/吨，下跌4元/吨，现货7110元/吨，无变动，基差19元/吨，走强4元/吨；上游开工78.22%，环比上涨0.56%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存58.71万吨，环比累库2.23万吨，贸易商库存18.73万吨，环比累库1.4万吨，港口库存6.11万吨，环比去库0.13万吨；下游平均开工率48.5%，环比上涨0.1%；LL - PP价差238元/吨，环比扩大19元/吨 [17] PX, PTA, and MEG PX - PX09合约上涨54元，报6832元，PX CFR下跌1美元，报834美元，按人民币中间价折算基差33元（ - 61），9 - 1价差84元（ + 18） [19] - PX负荷上，中国负荷82%，环比上升0.9%；亚洲负荷73.6%，环比上升0.2%；装置方面，盛虹、扬子石化负荷提升，威联石化重启，海外日本出光20万吨装置重启，韩国hanwha113万吨装置停车，SK40万吨装置重启 [19] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置方面，台化装置一套重启一套停车，嘉兴石化重启，逸盛新材负荷恢复，英力士降负荷，威联石化重启 [19][21] - 进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降0.5万吨；库存方面，6月底库存413.8万吨，月环比下降21万吨；估值成本方面，PXN为267美元（ + 6），石脑油裂差79美元（ - 5） [19][20] - PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA短期检修增加，整体负荷中枢下降，但因PTA新装置投产，PX有望持续去库，估值下方有支撑，但上方空间短期受限，终端及聚酯较弱压制上游估值；估值目前中性，关注旺季来临后跟随原油逢低做多机会 [20] PTA - PTA09合约上涨20元，报4726元，华东现货上涨5元，报4705元，基差 - 13元（ - 1），9 - 1价差 - 34元（ - 8） [21] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置情况如上述；下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [21] - 库存方面，8月1日社会库存（除信用仓单）224万吨，环比累库3.5万吨；估值和成本方面，PTA现货加工费上涨9元，至201元，盘面加工费下跌16元，至244元 [21] - 供给端8月检修量增加但有新装置投产，预期持续累库，PTA加工费运行空间有限；需求端聚酯化纤库存压力下降，下游及终端即将结束淡季，需等待订单好转；估值方面，PXN在PTA投产格局改善下有支撑向上动力，但受终端和聚酯较弱景气度影响难走扩，关注旺季下游表现好转后跟随PX逢低做多机会 [21] MEG - EG09合约上涨18元，报4432元，华东现货上涨18元，报4502元，基差76元（ + 2），9 - 1价差 - 46元（ - 3） [22] - 供给端，乙二醇负荷68.4%，环比下降0.2%，其中合成气制75.1%，环比上升1.1%；乙烯制负荷64.4%，环比下降1%；合成气制装置方面，通辽金煤重启，山西沃能检修；油化工方面，三江负荷提升，浙石化负荷下降；海外方面，马来西亚装置、沙特sharq3停车 [22] - 下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [22] - 进口到港预报14.1万吨，华东出港8月11日0.86万吨，出库下降；港口库存55.3万吨，累库3.7万吨；估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为 - 299元，国内乙烯制利润 - 584元，煤制利润1051元；成本端乙烯持平至820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格下跌至520元 [22] - 产业基本面上，海内外检修装置逐渐开启，下游开工将从淡季恢复但高度偏低，预期港口库存去化放缓；估值同比偏高，检修季结束，基本面由强转弱，短期估值有下降压力 [22]

1. Urea Core View The domestic urea futures market has shown a weak and volatile trend recently, mainly driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, leading to a poor trading atmosphere in the spot market and pushing down the futures price [7]. Summary by Category - **Futures Prices**: On August 11, the 01 contract closed at 1751, unchanged from August 8; the 05 contract closed at 1790, up 6 or 0.34%; the 09 contract closed at 1722, down 6 or -0.35% [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was -39 on August 11, down 6 or -18.18% from August 8; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 68, up 12 or 21.43%; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was -29, down 6 or -26.09%; the spread between the UR and MA main contracts was -667, down 12 or -1.83% [3]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 1403 to 63621 on August 11, a rise of 2.25%; the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 966 to 69896, a decline of -1.36%; the long - short ratio was 0.91, up 0.03 or 3.67%; the unilateral trading volume was 102540, up 22267 or 27.74%; the number of Zhengshang Institute warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3623 [4]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng remained at 900 yuan/ton; the price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner increased by 10 to 525 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.94%; the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port remained at 680 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong remained at 2300 yuan/ton; the estimated fixed - bed production cost remained at 1430 yuan/ton; the estimated water - coal slurry production cost increased by 14 to 1155 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.23% [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased by 30, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -1.70%, -1.21%, and -2.25%; the prices in Northeast China and Guangdong remained unchanged; the FOB price of small - sized urea in China and the FOB price of large - sized urea in the US Gulf remained unchanged [6]. - **Regional Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between Shandong and Henan, Guangdong and Henan, and Guangdong and Shanxi changed, and the basis in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while the basis in Guangdong increased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 70 to 5177 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; the prices of 45% S and 45% CL compound fertilizers in Henan remained unchanged; the compound fertilizer - urea ratio increased by 0.04 to 1.57, a rise of 2.30% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production increased by 0.20 to 19.21 million tons, a rise of 1.05%; the weekly domestic urea production decreased by 2.63 to 132.85 million tons, a decline of -1.94%; the weekly domestic urea plant - side inventory decreased by 2.97 to 88.76 million tons, a decline of -3.24%; the weekly domestic urea port inventory decreased by 1.00 to 48.30 million tons, a decline of -2.03% [7]. 2. Crude Oil Core View Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend. The main trading logic is the influence of geopolitical risks and marginal supply increments. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is the focus. The market is in a cautious wait - and - see attitude. In the medium - to - long term, the direction of oil prices depends on the negotiation results and inventory changes. There is no strong unilateral trend currently [9]. Summary by Category - **Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 12, Brent crude oil was at 66.84 dollars/barrel, up 0.21 or 0.32%; WTI was at 64.13 dollars/barrel, up 0.17 or 0.27%; SC was at 494.00 yuan/barrel, up 1.50 or 0.30%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed [9]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil and their month - to - month spreads changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined oil products in the US, Europe, and Singapore changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. 3. PVC and Caustic Soda Core View The caustic soda market is expected to be neutral to weak in the later stage, and the PVC market faces great supply - demand pressure, but attention should be paid to the boost of coking coal prices on PVC [19]. Summary by Category - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 11, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed compared with August 8 [14]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 10 to 390 dollars/ton, a decline of -2.5%; the export profit increased by 22.7 to 142.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 19.0%. The overseas quotes of PVC remained unchanged, and the export profit increased by 87.9 to 30.3 yuan/ton, a rise of 152.5% [15][16]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate and the PVC total operating rate increased, while the profits of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing changed slightly; the operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes, profiles, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [18][19]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, the upstream plant - side inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC increased [19]. 4. Polyolefins Core View The supply of PP and PE has different trends, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventories in the middle and upstream are being depleted. There is no major supply - demand contradiction [23]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 11, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and their spreads, as well as the spot prices of East China PP drawstrings, North China LLDPE film materials, and their basis changed compared with August 8 [23]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of various PE and PP products in East China changed on August 11 compared with the previous period [23]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries changed, and the inventories of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [23]. 5. Pure Benzene - Styrene Core View In the short term, pure benzene prices are relatively well - supported, but the rebound space is limited. Styrene's fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is also restricted. Specific trading strategies are provided for both [26]. Summary by Category - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 11, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, CFR China pure benzene, and their spreads changed compared with August 8 [26]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China, EB futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the cash flows and import profits changed [26]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, ABS and other downstream products changed [26]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene产业链 changed [26]. 6. Methanol Core View The methanol market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract has seasonal and supply - reduction expectations. Specific trading strategies are provided [30]. Summary by Category - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 8, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread, Taicang basis, and regional spreads changed compared with August 7 [30]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3 to 29.3688%, a decline of -9.50%; the methanol port inventory increased by 12 to 92.5 million tons, a rise of 14.48%; the methanol social inventory increased by 8.6 to 121.9%, a rise of 7.61% [30]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream domestic enterprises and some downstream industries changed on August 8 compared with the previous period [30]. 7. Polyester Industry Chain Core View The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip are different, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [59]. Summary by Category - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On August 11, the prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, polyester bottle - chips, and their cash flows changed compared with August 8 [59]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the PX basis and processing spreads changed [59]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PTA, PTA futures contracts, and their basis, processing spreads, and operating rates changed [59]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MEG, MEG futures contracts, and their basis, spreads, and cash flows changed [59]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain such as PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or short it within the sector when the price is high [5]. - For urea, although the current domestic demand is weak, the overall valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to go long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended for the short - term high - rising rubber price, with quick in - and - out operations. One can also consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. The fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. The price may decline significantly after the anti - involution sentiment fades [11]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the short term. After the high - level port inventory is reduced, the styrene price may oscillate upwards following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the short - term price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. - For polypropylene, the cost side will likely dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow the oil price and oscillate upwards [17]. - For PX, the load remains high, and it is expected to continue de - stocking. The valuation has support at the bottom but limited upside in the short term. One can consider going long following the oil price when the peak season arrives [19][20]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue building up inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. One can consider going long following PX when the downstream performance improves in the peak season [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will turn from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation may decline [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude oil futures rose $0.65, or 1.03%, to $64; Brent crude oil futures rose $0.39, or 0.59%, to $66.71; INE crude oil futures fell 0.40 yuan, or 0.08%, to 489.4 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.10 million barrels to 91.96 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.21%; diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.77 million barrels to 105.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.70%; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.87 million barrels to 197.51 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.00% [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the 09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 2389 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventory is building up faster, while inland corporate inventory is decreasing. The valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the 09 contract fell 6 yuan/ton to 1722 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant, and domestic agricultural demand is ending. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls expect price increases due to seasonal factors, demand expectations, and potential production cuts, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and less - than - expected production cuts [9]. - **Industry Conditions**: As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week but up 8.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous week and 4.21 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tire factories is under pressure [10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 17 yuan to 5010 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate was 79.5%, up 2.6% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, up 0.8% week - on - week. Factory inventory was 33.7 million tons (- 0.8), and social inventory was 77.7 million tons (+ 5.4). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - market sentiment is positive, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory is decreasing significantly, and the demand in the off - season is weak [13][14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity - release pressure in August [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season, and there is limited capacity - release in August. The cost side is expected to dominate the market [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6778 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 4 dollars to 835 dollars [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The import volume from South Korea decreased. The inventory decreased in June, and the valuation cost decreased [19][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 22 yuan to 4706 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 30 yuan to 4700 yuan [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The load increased, and some plants had load adjustments. The downstream load increased slightly, and terminal load was stable or decreased. The inventory increased in early August, and the processing fee had different trends [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 19 yuan to 4484 yuan [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall load decreased slightly, with different trends in synthetic gas and ethylene - based production. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream load increased slightly, and terminal load was stable or decreased. The port inventory increased, and the valuation and cost had different trends [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term, the market focuses on the cease - fire negotiation between the US and Russia on the Russia - Ukraine issue and India's attitude towards Russian oil sanctions. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified, and the price is bearish. Brent should pay attention to the support around $65.5 per barrel [1][2] - **Asphalt**: It maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term and more resistant to decline than crude oil. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3450 - 3550 [3][5] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced, and the demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply is rising and the demand has no specific driver. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] - **PX**: Supply is recovering in August, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [7][9] - **PTA**: Supply load has rebounded, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [12][13] - **Short Fiber**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [15][16] - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [18][19] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be relatively balanced, and the price has strong support. Styrene's supply is expected to increase, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The price of pure benzene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [19][21] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and short positions should be held. Caustic soda's price is expected to be in a volatile trend, and short positions should be closed at low prices [25][26] - **Plastic and PP**: The overall supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, and the strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [29][30] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and demand is declining. The strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [31] - **Soda Ash**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [33][34] - **Glass**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [35][37] - **Log**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited. The market is generally stable and slightly strong, but long - term demand needs to be observed [38][40] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general. The price is generally stable [40][42] - **Pulp**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend. The strategy is to hold short positions in the main 11 - contract [42][44] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The strategy is to try to go long in the main 09 - contract [45][47] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: For the RU main 01 - contract, wait and see; for the NR main 10 - contract, try to go long. Consider arbitrage opportunities in RU2511 - NR2511 [47][49] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 was stable at $63.88 per barrel, Brent2510 rose $0.16 to $66.59 per barrel, and SC2510 fell to 493 yuan per barrel. The Brent main - secondary spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: The US and Russia may negotiate to end the Ukraine war, and India has put on hold the plan to purchase US weapons and is open to reducing Russian oil imports [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term feed demand is okay, and the market focuses on geopolitical events. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: gasoline cracking is weak, diesel cracking is strong; Options: wait and see [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3484 points (+0.17%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3394 points (+0.09%) at night [3] - **Related News**: Shandong's mainstream transaction price fell by 5 yuan per ton, and the supply - demand pattern was loose [3] - **Logic Analysis**: July's actual output was higher than expected, and the demand in the south and north was weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4][5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: wait and see [5] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2776 (-0.82%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3464 (-0.89%) at night [5] - **Related News**: Iraq seized an oil tanker, and the domestic low - sulfur production in July decreased [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply pressure is slightly reduced, and low - sulfur supply is rising [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see [7] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6726 (-0.33%) on Friday and 6748 (+0.33%) at night [7] - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, and demand lacks upward drive [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [9] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4684 (-0.09%) on Friday and 4692 (+0.17%) at night [9] - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates increased [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply load has rebounded, and demand lacks upward drive [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [12] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4384 (-0.27%) on Friday and 4391 (+0.16%) at night [12] - **Related News**: China's ethylene glycol operating rate increased [12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [14] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 closed at 6382 (-0.16%) on Friday and 6398 (+0.25%) at night [15] - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased [16] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [17] PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 closed at 5898 (-0.34%) on Friday and 5924 (+0.44%) at night [16][18] - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate was flat, and the export price was lowered [18] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized, and the price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 6204 (-0.70%) on Friday and 6213 (+0.15%) at night. EB2509 closed at 7235 (-0.84%) on Friday and 7230 (-0.07%) at night [19] - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene and their downstream products changed [21] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and styrene's supply is expected to increase [21] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20][22] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were weakly volatile, and caustic soda spot prices were stable [22][23] - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling changed [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and caustic soda's price is expected to be volatile [25][26] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: PVC hold short positions, caustic soda close short positions at low prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [27] Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions changed [27] - **Related News**: The inventory of major producers increased [28] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity is being put into production, and demand is expected to be weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [28] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [28][29] Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 2384 (-0.17%) at night [29] - **Related News**: International methanol production increased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: International supply is recovering, and domestic supply is abundant. The strategy is to short at high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell call options [30][31] Urea - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1728 (-0.52%) [31] - **Related News**: Northeast urea arrivals decreased [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is declining, and the strategy is to short at high prices [31] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell put options on dips [31][32] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1249 (-1.4%) on Friday and 1242 (-0.6%) at night [33] - **Related News**: Domestic soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [33][34] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [34][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [35] Glass - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1063 (-1.21%) on Friday and 1064 (+0.09%) at night [35] - **Related News**: Glass inventory increased, and production was stable [35][36] - **Logic Analysis**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [36][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [38] Log - **Market Review**: The 9 - contract price fell to 830.5 yuan per cubic meter [39] - **Related News**: Log prices were stable, and imports decreased [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wait and see, aggressive investors can short near the previous high; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [40] Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was generally stable [40] - **Related News**: Some production lines were shut down for maintenance, and Suzano cut production [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general [42] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 11 - contract rose 0.23% [42] - **Related News**: Jiulong Paper raised prices, and downstream packaging enterprises responded [43][44] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: hold short positions in the main 11 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see [45] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 09 - contract rose 1.26% [45] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [46][47] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: try to go long in the main 09 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [47] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: The RU main 01 - contract rose 0.77%, and the NR main 10 - contract rose 0.06% [47][48] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: RU main 01 - contract wait and see, NR main 10 - contract try to go long; Arbitrage: consider RU2511 - NR2511; Options: wait and see [49]

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of WTI at $70.4/barrel is given. It is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits, and to position for the Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane - induced supply disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol's valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector [4]. - Urea's overall valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6]. - For natural rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounds. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy with quick entry and exit is recommended, and a long - short spread trading between RU2601 and RU2509 can be considered [10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost side to fluctuate upward [13]. - For polyethylene, the price in the short - term will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price in July is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [16]. - For PX, it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices [19]. - For PTA, it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.45, a 0.70% decline, at $63.82; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.55, an 0.82% decline, at $66.41; INE main crude oil futures closed down 4.90 yuan, a 0.97% decline, at 501 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.26 million barrels to 13.01 million barrels, a 2.02% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 8.67 million barrels, a 2.54% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.65 million barrels to 26.32 million barrels, a 6.69% increase; total refined oil inventories increased by 2.12 million barrels to 48.00 million barrels, a 4.63% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 7, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2388 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6 [4]. - **Analysis**: Domestic methanol production resumed its decline this week, but corporate profits remained high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are increasing faster due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO units. Inland inventories are decreasing due to olefin procurement, with relatively low pressure [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 7, the 09 contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 42 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic urea production continued to decline, and corporate profits were still at a low level but are expected to bottom out and rebound. Overall supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and subsequent demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Current domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then fluctuated [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually turns upward in the second half of the year. Bears think that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire factories have inventory pressure [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 5 yuan to 5046 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4910 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 136 (- 5) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 126 (+ 12) yuan/ton [10]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide increased, the overall operating rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05%. The downstream operating rate was 42.1%, up 0.2%. Factory inventories were 34.5 (+ 1.2) million tons, and social inventories were 72.2 (+ 3.9) million tons. The overall situation is strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [10]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene rose, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Analysis**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and there is still support on the cost side. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of benzene - ethylene continues to rise. Port inventories are decreasing significantly, and the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still cost support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trade inventories are at a high level and have a weak supporting effect on prices. In August, there is a large planned production capacity release. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In August, there is only a small planned production capacity release. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price in July is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 38 yuan to 6756 yuan, and PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 840 dollars. The basis was 152 (- 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 46 (- 4) yuan [18]. - **Analysis**: PX operating rates in China and Asia increased. Some PTA units had short - term maintenance, but PTA inventories are low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. New PTA units are being put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 20 (+ 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38 (- 8) yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: The PTA operating rate increased. Downstream operating rates also increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase due to new unit launches, but demand from the polyester and terminal sectors is about to end the off - season. The inventory level is low, and the negative feedback pressure is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4396 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4486 yuan, the basis was 73 (- 7) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (- 13) yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The production of ethylene glycol decreased slightly. Downstream operating rates increased slightly. Import arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventories are expected to gradually increase. The current valuation is relatively high compared to the same period, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Current oil price decline is driven by OPEC+ production increase, and supply-demand logic will dominate oil price trends in the short term. Suggest trading in a band, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Consider capturing volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The BZ2603 contract should follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [5]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider closing short positions in EB09 and look for opportunities to short at high prices [5]. - **Methanol**: MA09 is expected to accumulate inventory, while MA01 has seasonal demand and potential supply reduction from Iranian plants. Consider buying MA01 at low prices [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in a weak state. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August. Consider holding short positions at high prices [40]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand. Future prices are likely to continue to decline [40]. - **Polyolefins**: In August, there is pressure on inventory accumulation. However, there is potential for restocking in the seasonal peak season. Consider closing short positions at 7200 - 7300 and continue to hold LP01 [44]. - **Urea**: In the short term, the urea market is dominated by bullish sentiment. There is a game between positive factors such as the Indian tender and negative factors such as the off - peak agricultural demand [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are all affected by supply - demand relationships and oil prices. They are expected to fluctuate in certain ranges, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [56]. Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 7, Brent was at $66.92, WTI at $64.41, and SC at 502.10 yuan/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS decreased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 and SC M1 - M3 increased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of August 1, US crude oil production was 1328.4万桶/日, refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, and commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 302.9万桶 [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of pure benzene and related products changed. For example, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.9%. Styrene prices also had minor fluctuations [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the开工 rates of related industries had different changes [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, MA2601 closed at 2503, MA2509 at 2396. The MA91 spread decreased by 7.00% [28]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 9.50%, while port inventory increased by 14.48% [29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged, and the price of PVC in East China increased slightly [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's开工率 increased, while the PVC total开工率 decreased. The demand for caustic soda and PVC downstream industries was weak [38][39][40]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, L2601 closed at 7382, PP2601 at 7120. Some spreads such as L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [44]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and the开工 rates of related devices decreased [44]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of urea in various regions increased slightly. The futures prices of different contracts decreased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased slightly, and factory inventory decreased by 3.24% [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of downstream polyester products had different changes [56]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of PX, PTA, and other industries had different degrees of change [56].