Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities including coal, methanol, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, and agricultural products, considering factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical conflicts, and policy changes [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Related Products - **Coking Coal**: After most domestic coal mines resumed production, they maintained normal production, but some mines in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi had production limitations, resulting in a slight decline in output. The overall customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained high, and in the short - term, prices were likely to rise and difficult to fall. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [1]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production was at a high level, downstream demand recovered, port inventories continued to decline, and imports decreased significantly. The market was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [2]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: There were uncertainties in the market's interest - rate hike expectations and the appointment of the Fed chairman. Silver passively followed the movement of gold and was expected to fluctuate within a range in the medium - term [4]. - **Gold**: The war situation seemed to have escalated, and the risk - aversion sentiment rose. Gold had a short - term rebound demand and was expected to have a wide - range fluctuation pattern in the medium - term [4]. Industrial Metals - **Iron Ore**: Geopolitical conflicts affected the shipping rhythm of overseas mines, and the high oil price increased shipping costs. The overall supply - demand of iron ore was in a state where the pressure was difficult to be traded. Market sentiment was affected by conflicts, and the liquidity of some varieties was a key factor affecting prices [5]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: The peak - season demand for rebar was expected to be limited, the supply pressure increased with the resumption of blast furnaces, and the inventory was relatively high. The futures price faced the pressure of a high - level decline [5]. - **Aluminum**: Two major aluminum companies in the Middle East were attacked, increasing the market's concern about supply interruption. Although the domestic supply was relatively stable, aluminum prices were expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The long - term cooperation plan pointed to an increase in supply, but it had limited impact on the current market. The supply was still tight, and the demand was picking up. Copper prices were expected to fluctuate in the short - term [8]. - **Nickel**: The postponement of the windfall tax implementation provided short - term support. The supply tightening expectation was alleviated, and the demand was expected to release further. Nickel prices were expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Alkali (Soda Ash)**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight decline. The demand was general, and the inventory was high. Prices were expected to be slightly weaker in the short - term [14]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The short - term operation should be cautious. In the medium - term, the longer the war lasted, the stronger the upward driving force for oil prices [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply shortage was not effectively alleviated. If the terminal consumption recovered, the inventory was expected to decline, and it was advisable to take long positions at low levels [10]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply might be tightened due to geopolitical conflicts, and low - sulfur fuel oil production declined. It was advisable to take long positions at low levels [12]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The market's attention to the US biodiesel policy increased, and the export of Malaysian palm oil was strong. The domestic high - inventory situation suppressed prices. Palm oil was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The future supply of rapeseed was expected to increase, and the market was bearish. Rapeseed meal prices were expected to decline in the short - term [8]. - **Pig**: The pig price was weak and stable, with limited demand growth. The futures price of the far - month contract was stable, and attention should be paid to the slaughter volume and the reduction of sows [6]. Others - **Five - year Treasury Bond**: The industrial enterprise profit data was better than expected, which was negative for the bond market. The bond market was expected to fluctuate and wait for policy guidance [7]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure of LLDPE was expected to be alleviated, the downstream demand was rising, but the high price suppressed the purchasing enthusiasm. Plastic prices were expected to fluctuate in the short - term [15].

Market Overview - In Q1 2026, the equity market faced three significant pressures: margin ratio increase in January, commodity market decline in February, and geopolitical tensions in March, leading to a general decline in market risk appetite[1] - The overall PE ratio of the Wind All A index reached 22.48 times by March 27, nearing the high points of previous bull markets[2] Q2 Outlook - The focus for Q2 is on exploring undervalued sectors, particularly in power equipment and media, with PE percentiles at 67% and 68% respectively, and PEG ratios of 0.91[2] - The agricultural and financial sectors are also highlighted, with PB percentiles below 20% and ROE above 8%, indicating strong fundamentals[2] Risk Factors - Uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments pose risks to market stability[3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a continued emphasis on low-valuation styles due to high overall market valuations and a cautious risk appetite among investors[2] - The strategy includes focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as power equipment and media, while being wary of high-valuation sectors like defense and heavy industry[2][24] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the low PE index has consistently outperformed the high PE index since mid-January, indicating a shift towards undervalued stocks[20] - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation expectations, particularly for sectors like metals and coal, which currently have high PB ratios[28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on March 30, 2026, to help investors understand the price differences and profit opportunities in different trading modes [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On March 30, 2026, the domestic spot price was 95390, the LME price was 12181, and the ratio was 7.81; the three - month domestic price was 95910, the LME price was 12252, and the ratio was 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.86, with a profit of - 68.29. Spot export data was not provided [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 23190, the LME price was 3109, and the ratio was 7.46; the three - month domestic price was 23385, the LME price was 3108, and the ratio was 5.31. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.26, with a profit of - 2507.42 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 23810, the LME price was 3334, and the ratio was 7.14; the three - month domestic price was 23995, the LME price was 3273, and the ratio was 7.31. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.39, with a profit of - 4166.64 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 136350, the LME price was 17169, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.99, with a profit of - 608.05 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16400, the LME price was 1872, and the ratio was 8.72; the three - month domestic price was 16555, the LME price was 1908, and the ratio was 12.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.53, with a profit of 361.21 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 610, 590, 630, and 550 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 579, 1055, 1541, and 2026 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 335, 340, 345, and 345 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 342, 467, and 591 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 260, 320, 350, and 370 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 229, 360, 490, and 621 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 130, 130, 150, and 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 207, 310, 413, and 517 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 1720, 1940, 2150, and 2350 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - 1 contracts was - 2440, and the theoretical spread was 7488 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 5 and 615 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 376 and 992 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 145 and 190 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 174 and 309 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 25 and 155 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 142 and 252 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On March 30, 2026, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 4.10, 4.00, 5.79, 1.03, 1.45, and 0.71 in the Shanghai market (triple - continuous), and 3.91, 3.70, 6.43, 1.06, 1.74, and 0.61 in the London market (triple - continuous) [5]

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities reports that China Hongqiao (01378) is expected to see revenue and profit growth in 2025, with adjusted net profit exceeding expectations at over 26 billion yuan due to a decrease in capital expenditure, leading to increased operating cash flow [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 162.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.64 billion yuan, up 1.18% year-on-year [2] - After adjusting for the fair value changes of financial instruments, the net profit is projected to exceed 26 billion yuan, surpassing expectations [2] - The company's gross margin for 2025 was 25.56%, with a net margin of 14.88% [2] - Operating cash flow reached 38.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.75% [2] - The debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 42.25%, down 5.99 percentage points year-on-year [2] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for 2025 was 10.66 billion yuan, with future capital commitments for plant construction at 5.83 billion yuan, both lower than 2024 figures [2] - The reduction in capital expenditure is expected to enhance future operating cash flow [2] Business Segmentation 1. **Aluminum Alloy**: - Sales volume remained stable at 5.824 million tons, with an average selling price of 18,216 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, generating revenue of 106.10 billion yuan, up 3.6%, and a gross margin of 28.5%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points [3] 2. **Alumina**: - Sales volume increased by 22.7% to 13.397 million tons, with an average selling price of 2,899 yuan/ton, resulting in revenue of 38.83 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase, and a gross margin of 22.2% [3] 3. **Aluminum Processing**: - Sales volume for deep processing products remained stable at 716,000 tons, with an average selling price of 20,874 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, leading to revenue of 14.96 billion yuan, up 4.0%, and a gross margin of 19.2% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of stagflation is deepening, leading to price fluctuations and consolidation. The market has adjusted from previous recessionary trades, with both precious and industrial metal prices showing significant recovery. As stagflation trading continues, excess returns from precious metals may gradually emerge, while industrial products are expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The expectation of stagflation is deepening, with prices oscillating. Recent geopolitical tensions have led to rising oil prices, and the market is pricing in no interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026-2027. Precious and industrial metals are under pressure due to stagflation concerns, but there is potential for recovery if geopolitical tensions ease [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.45%, ranking third among all industries. The sector's performance was better than the overall market index [20][21] 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to show excess returns as stagflation expectations deepen. As of March 27, SHFE gold fell by 3.90% to 998.66 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold decreased by 1.84% to 4,492.00 USD per ounce. Central bank gold reserves in China increased to 7,422 million ounces, marking a continuous expansion for 16 months [14][30][56] 4. Copper - Under stagflation expectations, copper prices are expected to continue oscillating. As of March 27, SHFE copper rose by 1.26% to 95,930 CNY per ton, while LME copper increased by 2.23% to 12,195 USD per ton. Supply tightness is expected to continue due to ongoing strikes and production adjustments [17][28][69] 5. Aluminum - Supply disruptions continue to support aluminum prices. As of March 27, SHFE aluminum fell by 0.35% to 23,935 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum rose by 2.52% to 3,296 USD per ton. Domestic aluminum inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.83 million tons [16][87]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities indicates that China Hongqiao's revenue and profit are expected to grow year-on-year in 2025, with adjusted net profit exceeding expectations at over 26 billion yuan after accounting for fair value changes in financial instruments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 162.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.64 billion yuan, up 1.18% year-on-year [2]. - The adjusted net profit, after adding back the fair value change of financial instruments, is projected to exceed 26 billion yuan, surpassing expectations [2]. - The company's gross margin for 2025 was 25.56%, and the net margin was 14.88% [2]. - Operating cash flow reached 38.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.75% [2]. - The debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 42.25%, down by 5.99 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Capital Expenditure - The company's capital expenditure for 2025 was 10.66 billion yuan, with future capital commitments for plant construction amounting to 5.83 billion yuan, both lower than the previous year's figures [2]. - The reduction in capital expenditure suggests that the company will have more abundant operating cash flow in the future [2]. Business Segmentation 1. **Aluminum Alloy**: - Sales volume remained flat at 5.824 million tons, with an average selling price of 18,216 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Revenue reached 106.10 billion yuan, up 3.6%, with a gross margin of 28.5%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points [3]. 2. **Alumina**: - Sales volume increased by 22.7% to 13.397 million tons, with an average selling price of 2,899 yuan/ton. Revenue was 38.83 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase, and the gross margin was 22.2% [3]. 3. **Aluminum Processing**: - Sales volume for deep-processed products remained flat at 716,000 tons, with an average selling price of 20,874 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Revenue was 14.96 billion yuan, up 4.0%, with a gross margin of 19.2% [3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Copper Market Price Movements - Shanghai copper price increased by 1.26% to 95,900 CNY/ton - London copper price decreased by 0.11% to 12,115 USD/ton - US copper price rose by 3.01% to 5.46 USD/pound [1][2] Inventory Levels - Shanghai copper inventory stands at 359,100 tons, down 12.64% week-on-week - Electrolytic copper social inventory is at 427,400 tons, down 18.29% week-on-week - London copper inventory is at 360,300 tons, up 5.23% week-on-week - New York copper inventory is at 58,890 short tons, up 0.04% week-on-week [1][2] Market Dynamics Economic Conditions - The copper market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to stagflation trading [3] - Recent drop in copper prices has led to increased downstream operations and inventory replenishment, with significant domestic inventory reduction [4] Geopolitical Factors - The Iran conflict has caused a substantial rise in oil prices, contributing to rising inflation expectations in the US - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have diminished, while the conflict may lead to a downturn in demand and economic stagnation [4] Future Outlook - The risk of global economic stagflation is increasing, putting pressure on copper prices, which are expected to remain weak in the short term - Attention should be paid to the ongoing developments in the US-Iran conflict - In the medium to long term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply-side disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage - Copper smelting profits are expected to bottom out amid a backdrop of reduced competition, and with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, copper prices may continue to rise [5] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to monitor include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, China Nonferrous Mining, Minmetals Resources, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to show a downward trend in oscillation. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to rise in oscillation. The lead price may decline further. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation. The tin price is expected to be weak. The nickel price is expected to weaken in the short - term but has strong support at the bottom in the medium - term. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by resource - side issues, and the future trend needs further observation. The price of alumina is recommended to be observed. The stainless - steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term [3][6][9][13][14][16][19][22][25][29] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract closed up 0.17% at $12,141 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 95,490 yuan per ton. The LME inventory increased by 425 to 360,250 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 52,000 to 359,000 tons, and the daily warrant continued to decrease by 9,000 to 237,000 tons. The spot discount in East China slightly narrowed to 95 yuan per ton, and the spot premium in Guangdong rose to 100 yuan per ton. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 100 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 790 yuan per ton, widening compared to the previous period [2] Strategy Viewpoint - The repeated Middle - East situation suppresses the copper price on the sentiment side. The tight supply of copper ore remains, and the domestic inventory is desirably reduced after the copper price decline. The supply and substitution of scrap copper are reduced, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. Overall, the copper price may show a downward trend in oscillation. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 94,000 - 97,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 11,900 - 12,400 US dollars per ton [3] Aluminum Market Information - The repeated Middle - East situation pushed up the crude - oil price, and the rising energy cost pushed up the aluminum price. On Friday, the LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 0.92% at $3,284 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,085 yuan per ton. The position of the SHFE weighted aluminum contract decreased by 2,000 to 556,000 lots, and the futures warrant increased by 3,000 to 408,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places slightly increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The processing fee of aluminum rods on Friday decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China narrowed to 90 yuan per ton, and the buying sentiment was relatively positive. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 to 421,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M premium rose to $61.2 per ton [4] Strategy Viewpoint - The negotiation between the US and Iran continues, and the military action persists. The crude - oil price remains strong, and the market risk preference is still under pressure. The aluminum price is supported by energy costs and supply disturbances on the one hand and suppressed by sentiment on the other hand. Overseas aluminum - plant maintenance and production cuts will bring substantial production reduction, and the attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain over the weekend increased supply concerns. The overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight. The domestic downstream operating rate continues to increase, and the processing fee of aluminum rods returns to a relatively normal level, which helps inventory digestion. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 23,800 - 24,800 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 3,220 - 3,400 US dollars per ton [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The main AD2605 contract closed up 0.88% at 22,960 yuan per ton (as of 3 pm). The weighted contract position increased to 16,800 lots, and the trading volume was 10,600 lots. The trading volume increased, and the warrant decreased by 2,400 to 36,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2605 contract and the AD2605 contract was 975 yuan per ton, slightly widening compared to the previous period. The average price of ADC12 in the domestic mainstream area increased, and the import price of ADC12 rose by 100 yuan per ton. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 7,900 to 45,800 tons, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three places slightly increased to 31,300 tons [8] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has recovered. The demand is expected to continue to improve with the resumption of work and production downstream. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and tight raw - material supply, the price is expected to rise in oscillation in the short - term [9] Lead Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.57% at 16,553 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 113,100 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S lead rose 6.5 to $1,907.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 177,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,325 yuan per ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,325 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap price difference was at par. The average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 9,775 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead - ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan per ton. The LME lead - ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead - ingot cancellation warrant was 14,300 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 135 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.256, and the lead - ingot import profit and loss was 591.16 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared to March 23 [11] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead concentrate has increased, and the production of primary smelting has remained stable. The visible inventory of lead waste has increased, and the production of recycled lead has recovered. The inventories of primary and recycled lead - ingot factories have decreased, and the social inventory of lead ingots has also decreased. The downstream battery enterprises stock up at low prices, and the low operating rate of recycled - smelting enterprises provides short - term support for the spot market. However, the current high SHFE - LME price ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in exported batteries. The high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. There is a possibility that the lead price will decline further [12][13] Zinc Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.33% at 23,377 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 177,500 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S zinc rose 33.5 to $3,105.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 210,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,210 yuan per ton. The basis in Shanghai was - 60 yuan per ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 90 yuan per ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc - ingot futures inventory was 95,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 60 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan per ton. The LME zinc - ingot inventory was 115,700 tons, and the LME zinc - ingot cancellation warrant was 5,700 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 16.14 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was 64.55 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.09, and the zinc - ingot import profit and loss was - 2,327.99 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 214,400 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons compared to March 23. After the continuous decline of SHFE zinc, the downstream actively replenished inventory at low prices [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased marginally, the import TC of zinc concentrate has continued to decline, and the domestic TC has stopped falling and stabilized. There was a large - scale delivery of LME zinc again, and the structural risk has been further reduced. After the zinc price declined, the downstream replenished inventory to a certain extent, and the zinc price stopped falling and stabilized in the short - term. However, the basis and monthly price difference of SHFE zinc have not increased significantly, and the sustainability of subsequent purchases is expected to be limited. The current high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the market is discussing the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation at the current price level [14] Tin Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 362,460 yuan per ton, a 3.71% increase from the previous day. On the supply side, with the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday low, and the industry's production activities have entered a moderate recovery stage. The resumption of production in Yunnan is relatively faster, and the improvement in the operating rate is more obvious. Although there is also a recovery in Jiangxi, the recovery amplitude is relatively limited, and the overall recovery slope is relatively gentle. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the downstream consumption significantly shrank. In March, the improvement in actual terminal purchases is still relatively limited, and there has not been a substantial recovery. Last week, the tin price dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, driving the inventory to significantly decrease. As of March 20, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,035 tons, a decrease of 2,770 tons compared to the previous period [15] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the tin supply has improved marginally compared to before the Spring Festival, it is still constrained by the tight raw - material supply. Under the pressure on both the ore and recycled - material sides, the release of smelting - end production capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The demand has improved marginally, and the short - term consumption maintains a weak recovery pattern. The downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for the tin price. However, considering the continuous geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest - rate cut expectation, the global risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the tin price will be weak. The operating range of the domestic main contract is expected to be 320,000 - 390,000 yuan per ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 49,000 US dollars per ton [16] Nickel Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 137,100 yuan per ton, a 0.91% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were weakly stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 5,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. On the cost side, the ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $71.64 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $32.5 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of ferronickel slightly decreased. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,083 yuan per nickel point, remaining unchanged from the previous day [18] Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an increase in the long - term US inflation expectation, and risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the nickel price will also weaken. However, in the medium - term, the improvement trend of the global nickel - element supply - demand situation is certain, and the nickel price has strong support at the bottom, with limited downward space. Short - selling is not recommended. The operating range of the SHFE nickel price this week is expected to be 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton. In terms of operation, it is recommended to sell high and buy low and mainly conduct range operations [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On March 27, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium - carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 159,916 yuan, a 2.35% increase from the previous working day and a 10.35% increase within the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 156,000 - 164,700 yuan, and the average price increased by 3,700 yuan (+2.36%) compared to the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 153,000 - 161,500 yuan, and the average price increased by 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 168,440 yuan, a 7.15% increase from the previous closing price and a 17.09% increase within the week. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,250 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,320 US dollars per ton, and the average price increased by 1.13% compared to the previous day and 7.71% within the week [21] Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, the contradiction in the lithium - carbonate market is concentrated on the resource side. The short - term pressure of domestic lithium - salt spot shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are disturbances in major resource - producing areas such as Jiangxi, Zimbabwe, and Australia, and long - term concerns have increased. The growth momentum of domestic lithium - carbonate production remains unchanged, and the weekly inventory increase is the highest since August last year. However, whether the de - stocking trend has been completely reversed still needs to be observed. On the ore side, if the resumption of lithium - ore production in Jiangxi is postponed, the negotiation on the Zimbabwean mineral - export ban fails, and Australia reduces production due to energy - supply problems, the sustainability of domestic lithium - salt supply will be under pressure. The lithium - battery demand is expected to remain strong. Multiple new car models will be launched in the second quarter, and the overdraft effect of electric - vehicle sales may be alleviated. There are expectations of new orders for commercial vehicles and household energy storage. In the future

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The demand side shows that last week, the molten iron output increased continuously, the steel mill profits rebounded, the production rhythm was good, and the raw material demand was in an upward stage. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.3109 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 61,900 tons [1][4]. - On the supply side, last week, both overseas shipments and arrivals increased week - on - week. However, steel mills actively purchased, port desilting was good, and inventory continued to decline. The total global iron ore shipments were 3.1443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,500 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17.66683 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147,350 tons; the daily average desilting volume was 330,310 tons, a decrease of 5,610 tons [1][5]. - Overall, it is expected that the iron ore price will continue the volatile and upward trend [1][6]. Group 3: Transaction Data - SHFE rebar: closing price 3,124 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, up 0.03%, total trading volume 4,322,964 lots, total open interest 2,309,613 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil: closing price 3,299 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, up 0.06%, total trading volume 1,468,357 lots, total open interest 962,265 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore: closing price 817.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan, up 0.18%, total trading volume 1,078,183 lots, total open interest 408,026 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal: closing price 1,219.0 yuan/ton, up 48.0 yuan, up 4.10%, total trading volume 7,330,872 lots, total open interest 669,897 lots [2]. - DCE coke: closing price 1,752.0 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan, up 0.66%, total trading volume 148,101 lots, total open interest 46,589 lots [2]. Group 4: Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. Affected by the overseas geopolitical conflict sentiment, the futures price fluctuated mainly after rising and then falling. In the spot market, the quotation of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 668 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 115 yuan/ton [4]. Group 5: Industry News - On March 25, the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou bonded crushing project and the arrival ceremony of the first ship of iron ore of SimFer were held in Dalian, marking the official opening of a new iron ore logistics channel connecting West Africa's Guinea and Northeast China [7]. - US President Trump said that the US had a "strong" dialogue with Iran and had formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend the strike on its energy facilities for 5 days. He also said that the US was negotiating a broader agreement with Iran, and the US and Iran "might reach an agreement within 5 days or even less". However, Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Trump's statement was aimed at reducing energy prices and buying time for military operations [7]. - The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. It is reported that the US is considering promoting a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations on the above terms [7]. - US President Trump said that the strike on Iran's energy facilities would be postponed for another 10 days until 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. He also denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran and said that the US military operations against Iran were continuing, insisting that it was Iran that sought to restart the negotiations [7]. - On March 22, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the China Development Forum 2026 that China would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, comprehensively using various monetary policy tools such as the deposit - reserve ratio, policy interest rates, and open - market operations to maintain sufficient liquidity [7]. - On March 27, the US and Israel launched air strikes on the Khuzestan Steel Plant and the Mobarakeh Steel Plant in Isfahan, Iran. The power plant supporting the Mobarakeh Steel Plant was also attacked. It is expected that a rigid supply gap of 5 - 5.5 million tons per year will be formed in the short term, with the most prominent gaps in the three categories of plates, billets, and long products [7]. - On March 28, two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked. The factory of Bahrain Aluminum Company was attacked by Iran, and property losses were being evaluated. The United Arab Emirates Global Aluminum Company, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, was also attacked by Iran. It is understood that the aluminum products exported from the Middle East account for about 10% of the global supply, which may have a certain impact on the market [7]. - US Vice - President Vance said that the US had no intention of staying in Iran and would withdraw soon after dealing with current affairs [7]. - The US military's plan for a rapid ground - war victory within a few weeks was exposed. The Pentagon proposed a "sharp - blade beheading" tactic, aiming at the oil - rich Khark Island in Iran without occupying territory or waging a long - term war, trying to replicate the "42 - day defeat of Iraq" myth [7]. Group 6: Related Charts - The report provides 26 charts, including those related to steel mill profitability, iron production, iron ore shipments, arrivals, inventory, and price differentials, with data sources from iFinD, Mysteel, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [8][9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of stagflation is deepening, leading to price fluctuations and consolidation. The market has adjusted from previous recessionary trades, with both precious and industrial metal prices showing significant recovery. As stagflation trading continues, excess returns from precious metals may gradually emerge, while industrial products are expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The expectation of stagflation is deepening, with prices consolidating. Recent geopolitical tensions have led to rising oil prices, and the market is pricing in no interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026-2027. Precious and industrial metals are under pressure due to financial attributes, but there is potential for recovery if geopolitical tensions ease [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.45%, ranking third among all industries. The sector outperformed the broader market indices [20][21] 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure but may show excess returns as stagflation expectations deepen. As of March 27, SHFE gold fell by 3.90% to 998.66 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold decreased by 1.84% to 4,492.00 USD per ounce. Central bank gold reserves in China increased to 7,422 million ounces [14][30] 4. Copper - Copper prices are expected to remain oscillatory under stagflation expectations. As of March 27, SHFE copper rose by 1.26% to 95,930 CNY per ton, while LME copper increased by 2.23% to 12,195 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues, with global visible copper inventory at approximately 1.4348 million tons [17][73] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are supported by supply disruptions and inventory reductions. As of March 27, SHFE aluminum fell by 0.35% to 23,935 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum rose by 2.52% to 3,296 USD per ton. Domestic aluminum inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.83 million tons [16][87]