广发证券研报指出，电解铝需求改善的背景下，供给的强约束将更加突出，铝价上行弹性不可忽视。截 至2025年3月末，中国宏桥具有电解铝产能645.9万吨，产销持稳，成本下降，预计2026年铝价上涨将带 来公司核心的利润弹性。国泰海通则预计公司未来的股息支付能力将有所增强，该行认为该公司在香港 股市仍是一只极具吸引力的高股息股票。 智通财经APP获悉，中国宏桥(01378)午后涨超8%，截至发稿，涨8.01%，报38.3港元，成交额14.44亿港 元。 消息面上，美伊冲突正持续发酵。据中信建投证券，中东六国约700万吨电解铝，特别是伊朗近80万吨 电解铝将面临原料输入和成品输出的双向威胁。该行认为，美伊冲突升级对铝的潜在影响或体现为伊朗 减产到中东六国稳定生产受威胁，主要是海上运输通道若遭封锁，氧化铝进不去，电解铝出不来，势必 会造成全球铝供应的缺失。全球电解铝最新库存为162万吨，抗供应冲击的能力较弱，美伊冲突将对铝 价构成上行驱动。 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要 上周宏观层面的逆风有所缓和，降息尤其有所回升，米兰重新喊话今年应该降息100BP，AI担忧在英伟达超预期财报的背景下也有 所减弱。周末美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事行动，并且击毙包括哈梅内伊在内的多名伊朗高级官员，此举必将对中东及全球政经格 局带来深远影响，需要进一步关注后续的发展。 1 核心观点 1 上周金铜走强 贵金属方面，上周COMEX黄金上涨3.24%，白银上涨10.8%；沪金2604合约上涨3.41%，沪银2604合约上涨16.36%。主要 工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+2.21%、+3.27%。 2 铜价小幅反弹，伊朗局势增加不确定性 上周宏观层面的逆风有所缓和，降息尤其有所回升，米兰重新喊话今年应该降息100BP，AI担忧在英伟达超预期财报的背景 下也有所减弱。周末美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事行动，并且击毙包括哈梅内伊在内的多名伊朗高级官员，此举必将对中东 及全球政经格局带来深远影响，需要进一步关注后续的发展。同时，伊朗也有铜精矿的储量和产量，后续相应矿山的运营、 生产、物流等因素是否会受到影响，也是供应端的潜在风 ...

辉煌"十四五" 有色新质变 ——我国有色金属工业"十四五"发展成就综述 中国有色金属工业协会 党委书记、会长 葛红林 "十四五"时期，是全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的开局5年，更是我国有色金属工业 实现历史性跨越、完成从"量的积累"到"质的飞跃"的关键5年。面对百年变局加速演进、全球 产业链重构、绿色低碳转型等多重挑战，我国有色金属工业在习近平新时代中国特色社会主 义思想的指引下，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，迎难而上、砥砺前行，高质量发展稳 步推进，全球竞争力持续增强，战略地位愈加凸显，书写了从"有色大国"向"有色强国"迈进 的崭新篇章。 辉煌"十四五" 时代坐标下的产业新质变 总量突破与效益跃升 质变根基持续夯实 "十四五"时期，我国有色金属工业摆脱规模扩张依赖，实现了产量、效益、贸易的协同质 变，综合实力跃上新高度。 一是主要金属产量首次突破8000万吨，全球供给主导地位稳固。2025年，我国十种常用有 色金属产量8175万吨，全球占比超50%，"十四五"年均增速5%。其中，精炼铜1472万吨、 电解铝4502万吨、精炼铅774万吨、精炼锌753万吨，分别占全球市场份额的47%、60%、 48%、 ...

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 如何看待近期"HALO"交易？ 2026年3月2日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】春节后科技主线行情或将如何演绎？ 3 ➢ A股节后首周市场整体情绪明显回暖，中证1000与中证500指数周内涨幅均超过4%，算力产业链、电 力、商业航天、资源品顺周期板块轮番活跃，人民币汇率走强亦形成支撑。但"AI吞噬应用"叙事 主导之下，A股软件及恒生科技等板块受到显著冲击，全球HALO交易策略成为外资主导方向，A股同 步共振。 ➢ 一、科技与资源品共振：驱动逻辑是什么？ ➢ 上周科技与资源的双线行情，本质上是同一套市场逻辑的"一体两面"——前者对应"AI带动算力 与电力需求扩张、国产替代加速"的产业景气逻辑，后者对应"PPI回升、反内卷政策落地、全球资 源再定价"的周期修复逻辑。 ➢ 1）资源品方面，美伊局势升温推动国际油价假期累涨逾5%，叠加国内PPI环比持续回升与供给 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 金融工程月报 券商金股 2026 年 3 月投资月报 核心观点 金融工程月报 券商金股股票池上月回顾 2026 年 2 月，炬光科技、东方钽业、天孚通信等券商金股股票的月度上涨 幅度靠前。 2026 年 2 月，财通证券、东吴证券、国投证券收益排名前三，月度收益分 别为 14.54%、10.54%、9.85%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益 1.04%，沪 深 300 指数收益 0.09%。 2026 年以来，国元证券、中邮证券、东吴证券收益排名前三，年度收益分 别为 25.15%、24.81%、21.17%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益 8.44%， 沪深 300 指数收益 1.74%。 券商金股股票池中选股因子表现 最近一个月，总市值、SUE、预期股息率表现较好，EPTTM、剥离涨停动 量、日内收益率表现较差； 今年以来，总市值、分析师净上调比例、分析师净上调幅度表现较好，单季 度 ROE、EPTTM、日内收益率表现较差。 券商金股股票池本月特征 截至 2026 年 3 月 2 日，共有 39 家券商发布本月金股。在对券商金股股票 池进行去重后，总共有 273 只 A ...

Stock Recommendations - Kingsoft Office (688111.SH) is positioned to benefit from AI developments despite recent stock price adjustments, with an expected EPS growth from 3.56 in 2024 to 4.57 in 2026[5] - Shengyi Technology (600183.SH) anticipates significant growth driven by server PCB upgrades and new AI customer acquisitions, with EPS projected to rise from 0.74 in 2024 to 2.37 in 2026[5] - Tuojing Technology (688072.SH) maintains a leading position in thin film deposition equipment, with EPS expected to increase from 2.48 in 2024 to 5.96 in 2026[5] Automotive Sector Insights - Bertly (603596.SH) is expected to benefit from the focus on autonomous driving, with an EPS forecast of 2.85 in 2026, reflecting a growth trajectory[6] - Yinlun (002126.SZ) is projected to see EPS growth from 0.96 in 2024 to 1.49 in 2026, supported by economic recovery in construction machinery and heavy trucks[6] Market Performance Overview - The weighted return of the gold stock portfolio in February 2026 was 6.47%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.09%[12] - Silver Wheel (002126.SZ) had the highest monthly increase at 32.15%, while Hongyuan Electronics (603267.SH) rose by 22.52%[12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include overseas policy changes and individual company operational risks, which could affect performance and earnings volatility[8]

2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 -8% 8% 24% 40% 56% 72% 88% 104% 120% 136% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-02 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 10528.63 | | 52 | 周最高 | 11180.33 | | 52 | 周最低 | 4295.55 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070002 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《高波行情渐退，逢低布局有色板 块》 - 2026.02.09 有色金属行业报告 （202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Global macro格局受四大重磅事件冲击，美以伊军事冲突成市场核心即时变量，需关注冲突烈度及对市场的影响，人民币汇率受央行政策和地缘冲突影响，短期或双向波动，长期升值趋势取决于国内经济和出口情况 [2][3] - 股指受两会和地缘政治局势影响，预计以短期情绪冲击为主，底部支撑强；国债存在上涨契机，但需关注市场环境；集运欧线受地缘冲突和船司挺价影响，预计震荡偏强 [6][7][9] - 碳酸锂短期预计在15 - 20万元/吨区间宽幅震荡，中长期价值支撑稳固；工业硅和多晶硅短期处于产能周期底部，需等待供需格局改善 [11][12][13] - 铝产业链受美伊冲突影响，铝价或震荡偏强，氧化铝震荡整理，铸造铝合金震荡偏强；铜价受库存和下游复工影响，上涨面临压力；锌价预计偏强震荡；镍不锈钢震荡偏强；锡价高位震荡；铅价震荡调整 [15][16][18] - 油料市场，二季度后大豆供应压力回归，菜粕或表现弱势；油脂市场受地缘冲突支撑，可寻找逢低看多机会 [26][27][28] - 燃料油期价有望强势冲高，沥青跟随成本上涨；铂金和钯金中长期牛市基础仍在，黄金和白银战略性看多 [30][32][34] - 纸浆和胶版纸期货可区间交易，纯苯或有低多机会；苯乙烯和LPG受地缘影响，成本支撑增强；甲醇受地缘冲突影响大；聚烯烃短期受情绪和成本驱动，PP基本面支撑强于PE [37][38][40] - 橡胶震荡回调，天胶中长期偏多，顺丁橡胶区间震荡；尿素受美伊战争影响，价格或上涨；玻璃纯碱基本面空间有限；丙烯受成本推动上涨 [50][51][54] - 螺纹和热卷受政策预期和高库存影响，短期内政策支撑盘面，但基本面偏弱；铁矿石供应压制价格，需求预期悲观；焦煤焦炭关注终端需求验证；硅铁和硅锰受消息面驱动上涨，但硅锰受高库存压制 [57][58][60] - 生猪现货持续下跌，可选择卖涨期权；棉花供需偏紧，建议回调布局多单；白糖基本面偏空，关注盘面能否站稳5300；鸡蛋短期窄幅震荡、稳中偏强；苹果关注节后消费和交割逻辑；红枣供需格局偏松，价格承压；原木可观望或低多 [65][66][76] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Focus on the Middle East situation, including the Iran - US - Israel conflict, the impact on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Chinese government's meeting on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent one - sided appreciation expectations. Short - term exchange rate may show two - way fluctuations, and long - term appreciation depends on domestic economic recovery and export strength. Geopolitical conflicts may support the US dollar index [2][3] - **Stock Index**: Affected by the two sessions and geopolitical situation, short - term emotional shocks are expected, with strong bottom support [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: There is an opportunity for an increase, but the market environment needs to be monitored. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high prices in the short term [6][7][8] - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding behavior strengthen short - term support, but weak cargo volume limits the upside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9][10] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton. Long - term value is supported by downstream demand, but risks such as price increases affecting terminal economy need to be noted [11][12] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Currently at the bottom of the production cycle, waiting for supply - demand pattern improvement. Photovoltaic has long - term development potential [12][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The US - Iran conflict may cause short - term price fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to buy call options for aluminum and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for alumina. Cast aluminum alloy may follow the trend of aluminum [15][16][17] - **Copper**: Affected by high inventory and slow downstream resumption, price increase is restricted. It is advisable to use calendar spread strategies or buy out - of - the - money call options [18][20] - **Zinc**: Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and the turning point needs to be observed [22] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The trend is slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to US tariff disturbances and Indonesian supply [22][23] - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the impact of risk aversion on the market needs to be noted [23][24] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and interval operations are recommended [25] Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The supply pressure of soybeans will return in the second quarter, and rapeseed meal may be weak [26] - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by geopolitical conflicts, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [26][27][28] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by supply shock, cost, and logistics, the futures price is expected to rise strongly [30] - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost of crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are dominant [31] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The risk - aversion sentiment is fermented due to the Middle East geopolitical risk. The long - term bull market foundation remains, but position control is needed [32][33] - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion allocation value is prominent. It is recommended to go long strategically and pay attention to economic data and policy expectations [34][35] Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp futures are bearish due to inventory accumulation and weak cost support. Offset paper futures are affected by multiple factors and are in a range - bound state [37][38] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The cost support is enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and they are likely to follow the rise of crude oil [38][39] - **LPG**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the external market is strong and the internal market is weak. The focus is on the situation in the Middle East [39][40][41] - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact, and the supply and price are likely to be affected [41][42] - **Plastics and PP**: The cost support is strengthened by the Middle East conflict. PE is supply - strong and demand - weak in the short term, while PP has supply reduction expectations and stronger fundamental support [44][45] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and synthetic rubber is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply, demand, and inventory [50][74] - **Urea**: Affected by the US - Iran war, international and domestic prices may rise [51][52] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The fundamental space is limited, and price fluctuations are restricted [53][54] - **Propylene**: Driven by cost, the price is expected to rise, but the downstream acceptance needs to be observed [54][55] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by policy expectations and high inventory, the short - term policy supports the market, but the fundamental weakness limits the upside [57] - **Iron Ore**: The supply suppresses the price, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to be bearish but not to short [58][59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Enter the terminal demand verification period, and the real data is important. The price may face downward pressure if the supply recovers more than expected and the macro - sentiment weakens [60][61] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Driven by market rumors, silicon iron has a better fundamental situation, while silicon manganese is restricted by high inventory [61][62][63] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The spot price continues to decline, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [65] - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to foreign trade policies and export progress [66][67][68] - **Sugar**: The fundamental situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to whether the price can stand above 5300 [68][69] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and be slightly stronger in the short term, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70] - **Apples**: Pay attention to post - festival consumption and the delivery logic. The price may decline if the demand is weak [76][77] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure, likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [77][78] - **Logs**: The spot price has support, but the demand has not recovered significantly. Geopolitical factors may affect supply and cost. It is advisable to wait and see or go long at low prices [79]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the metals industry, particularly precious metals, copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, rare earths, tungsten, and uranium, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors on metal prices and supply dynamics [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances have led to a steady increase in precious metal prices, with expectations for continued upward movement due to uncertainties stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict [2][6]. - Central banks continue to purchase gold, and while U.S. inflation data has risen, it has not yet impacted the interest rate reduction process, maintaining the long-term logic for precious metals [3][7]. Copper - The price of copper is driven by rigid supply and strategic stockpiling, with macroeconomic factors such as tariffs and the U.S. Trade Representative's consultation on critical minerals influencing the market [4][8]. - Supply disruptions are prevalent, but demand from sectors like AI investment, power grid construction, and robotics is expected to support prices, alongside copper's strategic resource status [9]. Aluminum - Global macroeconomic conditions are moderately improving, but high inventory levels are putting pressure on aluminum prices [10]. - Uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and geopolitical tensions contribute to a volatile market, with seasonal supply exceeding demand leading to an expected accumulation of aluminum ingots post-holiday [11][12]. Tin - Supply disruptions are decreasing, with concerns about trade blockages due to conflicts in Myanmar being mitigated by the location of core mining areas and progress in production resumption [13]. - Attention is needed on the pace of downstream recovery and stockpiling demand post-holiday [14][15]. Lithium - Post-holiday, lithium carbonate inventories are continuing to decrease, with strong demand persisting despite rising production [16]. - Anticipated reductions in export tax rebates for battery products may lead to a front-loading of battery demand [17]. - Monitoring of Zimbabwe's export policies is crucial for understanding potential supply disruptions [18]. Rare Earths - Prices for both light and heavy rare earths have increased following the holiday, indicating a positive market outlook for these strategic resources [19][20]. Tungsten - Domestic regulatory tightening and geopolitical issues in Myanmar are reducing supply rigidity, while overseas price increases and U.S. government AI pricing models are adding strategic premiums to tungsten [20]. - The current supply chain dynamics are leading to a pricing surge, with high prices expected to persist until supply issues are resolved [21][22]. Uranium - January saw the highest long-term contract prices for natural uranium in a decade, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development, suggesting a sustained upward trend in uranium prices [22].

2026年03月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需去库，关注市场情绪 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 2 日 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 究 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,560 | 520 | 6,370 | 9,720 | -1,500 | 26 ...