晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2025 年 12 月 29 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3963.68 | 0.10 | | 深证成指 | 13603.89 | 0.54 | | 创业板指 | 3243.88 | 0.14 | | 科创 50 | 1345.83 | -0.24 | | 北证 50 | 1463.03 | 0.35 | | 沪深 300 | 4657.24 | 0.32 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 上证指数 沪深300 | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 周剑 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525090001 | | | zhoujian64@hnchasing.com | | 晨会聚焦 一、财信研究观点 【债券研究】债券市场综述 二、重要财经 ...

今日热点导览 《疯狂动物城2》成为中国影史首部观影人次破亿进口电影 追觅科技CEO俞浩宣布今年春节每位员工额外奖励1克黄金 "史上最严电动汽车电耗国标"明年实施 贵州茅台：尽最大努力防止价格炒作 日本巨头川崎重工业承认数据造假 网易集团执行副总裁丁迎峰宣布退休 TOP3大新闻 充25年会员退费难，爱奇艺回应 12月28日，爱奇艺官方微博发文称，关注到用户黄先生的退费诉求，已第一时间进行核查，并启动原支 付渠道退款流程。因其原账户停用，为保障其资金安全，我们将在核实收款账户与充值账户为同一人所 有的基础上，根据该用户的实际情况为其安排退费。 此前，据河南广播电视台报道，12月25日，河南许昌，黄先生称爱奇艺会员充了25年，退费却很困难。 他表示，之前一直是家人在用，最近开始看剧才发现会员从2017年充到了2043年。黄先生表示，发现这 一情况后，自己联系爱奇艺客服，客服告知他可以原路退回"2018年1月2号到2018年4月20号充值的共计 14笔官方年费订单"，但由于之前自己充值的支付宝账号已经没有在使用，而且被别人注册，"原路退回 只能退到别人账号上，我肯定不同意，但客服表示只有这一个解决方案"。（智通财经） ...

2025年是中国游戏市场和中国游戏"出海"规模爆发的一年，被业内视为"游戏大年"。越来越多优秀游戏 涌现，得益于近两年版号数量的增长。据《证券日报》记者梳理，2025年，我国累计发放国产网络游戏 版号1676款，相比2024年的1306款同比增长28.33%。 "当前来看，客户端和主机游戏在中国开始进入高速发展期，之后的市场规模大概率会越来越大。最重 要的原因是，2025年游戏厂商与渠道商收入分成的博弈白热化。"上海夏至良时咨询管理有限公司高级 研究员杨怀玉在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。 渠道分成博弈白热化 一直以来，一款游戏如果想上架移动渠道，通常都要支付渠道商相应的收入分成。记者了解到，在国 内，安卓渠道的分成比例高达50%，苹果的分成通常在30%。尽管极个别头部爆款游戏制作商以及大 厂，会和安卓渠道单独议价，但大部分厂商基本都需要遵守渠道的分成比例规则。 值得一提的是，越来越多游戏厂商在申请游戏版号时，不再局限于移动端，而是增加客户端或主机端的 申请，实现多端并进。其中，2025年多端游版号数量达到了103款，相比2024年的94款同比增长 9.57%。 大厂纷纷布局多端游戏 2025年，多家上市公 ...

焦点 头条 巴菲特即将卸任CEO，最新个人资产估值1510亿美元 据央视财经报道，现年95岁的巴菲特将在今年年底卸任伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司首席执行官一职。过去60 年，他依托这家公司，为自己、也为公司股东们创造了数额惊人的财富。截至目前，他的个人——净资 产估值已经达1510亿美元。这也让他稳居"彭博亿万富豪榜"第十位。 自1965年掌控伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司以来，巴菲特将这家步履维艰的纺织企业，彻底转型为市值超1万亿 美元的巨型综合企业集团。巴菲特的个人净资产估值达1510亿美元，其中几乎全部由伯克希尔的A类股 票构成，CNBC报道称，如果他没有从2006年开始持续捐赠伯克希尔B类股票，而是一直持有这数十万 股目前市值达2080亿美元的股票，其身家将增至约3590亿美元，在富豪榜上的排名也将跃升至第二位。 今年11月10日，巴菲特在其年度致股东信中宣布在年底卸任伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司首席执行官一职，但 他将继续担任该公司董事会主席并暂时保留"相当数量"的股份。 （央视财经） 声音 本土化是稳健出海的根基，只有真正理解并尊重当地市场，才能建立长久竞争力。 当前的"出海"内涵已发生深刻演变，正从单一的"产品出口"迈向 ...

头条 巴菲特即将卸任CEO，最新个人资产估值1510亿美元 据央视财经报道，现年95岁的巴菲特将在今年年底卸任伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司首席执行官一职。过去60 年，他依托这家公司，为自己、也为公司股东们创造了数额惊人的财富。截至目前，他的个人——净资 产估值已经达1510亿美元。这也让他稳居"彭博亿万富豪榜"第十位。 自1965年掌控伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司以来，巴菲特将这家步履维艰的纺织企业，彻底转型为市值超1万亿 美元的巨型综合企业集团。巴菲特的个人净资产估值达1510亿美元，其中几乎全部由伯克希尔的A类股 票构成，CNBC报道称，如果他没有从2006年开始持续捐赠伯克希尔B类股票，而是一直持有这数十万 股目前市值达2080亿美元的股票，其身家将增至约3590亿美元，在富豪榜上的排名也将跃升至第二位。 今年11月10日，巴菲特在其年度致股东信中宣布在年底卸任伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司首席执行官一职，但 他将继续担任该公司董事会主席并暂时保留"相当数量"的股份。 （央视财经） 声音 本土化是稳健出海的根基，只有真正理解并尊重当地市场，才能建立长久竞争力。 ——全球青年跨境协会中国区会长龙淑贞 详情 当前的"出海"内涵已发 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [9]. Core Insights - ByteDance's AI collaboration for the Spring Festival is a significant milestone, with its product Doubao achieving over 100 million daily active users. The integration with Douyin's e-commerce platform is expected to enhance monetization through advertising and transaction fees [2]. - Alibaba is focusing on AI advancements, particularly in chip localization and consumer applications, while Tencent is restructuring its AI framework to accelerate the development of large models [2]. - The gaming sector is entering a peak season, with major titles expected to drive user engagement and revenue growth. Notable releases include Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and Tencent's "Delta" [2]. - The collectibles market is also thriving, with Pop Mart's Labubu 4.0 set to launch, reflecting a diverse product range and successful international market expansion [2]. Summary by Sections AI and Technology - ByteDance's AI cloud partnership for the Spring Festival and Doubao's integration with e-commerce are pivotal for future growth [2]. - Alibaba's AI initiatives include the launch of new products and continued growth in cloud services [2]. - Tencent's restructuring aims to enhance its AI capabilities and product offerings [2]. Gaming Industry - The upcoming gaming season is highlighted by major releases that cater to a younger audience, which is crucial for monetization [2]. - Notable games include "Supernatural Action Group" and "Delta," which are expected to perform well during the peak season [2]. Collectibles and Entertainment - Pop Mart's Labubu 4.0 is anticipated to boost sales, supported by a diverse product lineup and international market strategies [2]. - The animation "Chinese Fantasy 2" is set to premiere exclusively on Bilibili, indicating strong collaboration in the entertainment sector [2]. Advertising and Media - Companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu are expected to benefit from AI product promotions, which will positively impact advertising firms like Focus Media [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to AI changes in content production to maintain competitive advantages [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI industry continues to show strong trends, with companies like MiniMax and Zhiyu AI passing hearings, indicating ongoing interest and investment in AI technologies [2] - The coffee and tea beverage sector remains vibrant, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4] - E-commerce is facing pressure due to a challenging domestic consumption environment, leading to a lackluster performance [4] - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable internet assets driven by domestic demand, suggesting a focus on subscription models [4] - The virtual asset market is experiencing limited catalysts, with ongoing market anxiety and weak capital inflows [4] - The automotive service sector is expanding, with significant milestones such as Tuhu's workshop count surpassing 8000 [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow in technology leaders, particularly in the AI sector, while cautioning against potential overinvestment [4] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - Coffee and tea beverage sector shows a +0.18% increase in the Hang Seng non-essential consumption index, outperforming the Hang Seng index by -0.32 percentage points [9] - Notable stock performances include Mixue Group (+6.78%) and Luckin Coffee (+0.47%), while others like Bawang Tea and Xiaomian faced declines [9] 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index decreased by 0.59%, underperforming both the Hang Seng index and technology index [18] - Key stock performances include iQIYI (+3.24%) and Spotify (+0.38%), while Tencent Music saw a decline of -1.98% [18] 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - As of December 26, the global cryptocurrency market cap reached $30,205 billion, up 1.76% [22] - Bitcoin and Ethereum prices were $87,306 and $2,926.70, reflecting slight declines of -0.9% and -1.7% respectively [22] 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index fell by -1.21%, with notable stock performances such as Zhongsheng Holdings (+2.25%) and Advance Auto Parts (-12.87%) [30] 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index dropped by -2.86%, with significant declines in stocks like Beike (-6.62%) and Didi Global (+4.57%) [34] 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index increased by +0.92%, with Nvidia (+5.27%) and TSMC (+4.81%) showing strong performances [39] 1.3 Media - The Shenwan first-level media index remained nearly flat with a -0.1803% change, with advertising marketing showing the largest gains [41] - Key stock performances include Xindong Company (+5.22%) and Perfect World (+3.09%) [41]

行 业 及 产 业 相关研究 券 研 究 报 告 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 28 日 字节 AI 春晚合作，游戏潮玩视频消 费旺季来临 看好 ——互联网传媒周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示： 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [3] Core Views - As the winter vacation and Spring Festival approach, high DAU products like "Delta Action" and "Supernatural Action Group" are expected to achieve new highs in DAU and revenue, with market consensus strengthening [3] - Emphasis on cross-year allocation opportunities and companies with significant growth potential, such as Tencent Holdings, Giant Network, and Century Huatong, is recommended [3] - New product launches and updates in gaming and film content are highlighted as key trading opportunities [3][4] Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - Major products like "Honor of Kings," "Delta Action," and "Supernatural Action Group" are expected to strengthen their market position through frequent content updates [5] - Companies exploring AI integration in gaming are noted for their potential to drive value reassessment [5] - Recommendations include Tencent Holdings, NetEase, and several others for their innovative approaches [5] Film and Television Sector - The film "Fast Life 3" is scheduled for release during the 2026 Spring Festival, with recommendations to monitor related production and distribution companies [4] - The implementation of new policies by the National Radio and Television Administration is expected to enhance content creation and development in the long-form drama sector [4] Internet Sector - ByteDance's launch of the general Agent model Seed1.8 is noted for its multi-modal capabilities, impacting traditional business models [6] - Continued focus on AI technology development and its application in various sectors, including education and e-commerce, is advised [6] New Business Models - The rise of "group broadcasting" is seen as a shift towards systematic growth, with recommendations for companies directly involved in this model [7] - Companies benefiting from the growth of group broadcasting, such as Kuaishou and Bilibili, are highlighted [7] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight decline in the media sector, ranking 26th among all industries during the specified period [12] - Notable stock performance includes Baida Qiancheng (+20.08%) and Rebate Technology (+14.34%) [15][19] Industry News - "Chinese Tales 2" will exclusively launch on Bilibili starting January 1, 2026 [9] - The 2025 mini-game market is projected to reach 61 billion yuan, growing by 22% [9][24]

怀旧的风终于还是吹到了 Steam 上。 这几年，越来越多的老游戏登上了 Steam 平台，像是我们之前聊过的闪客快打、二战前线。 这款很多人可能都没通关的游戏到底讲了个什么故事，为啥被玩家心心念念的《艾诺迪亚 4》没有出续作，有生之年还能不能等到《艾诺迪亚 5》。。。 接下来，我们逐个解开这些童年未解之谜。 既然都叫《艾诺迪亚 4》了，那大伙估计觉得，肯定也还有《艾诺迪亚》1、2、3。 这个说法对，也不全对。 前两天，另一个重量级游戏也偷偷上线了，它就是智能机时代早期的手游神作，发布于 2012 年的《艾诺迪亚 4》。 艾诺迪亚 4 没有在那个时间节点玩过《艾诺迪亚 4》的，很难理解这款游戏到底有多震撼。 2012 年，智能机还没有在国内彻底铺开，中国手游还是无名之辈，市场的主角是休闲游戏，《小鳄鱼爱洗澡》、《保卫萝卜》、《捕鱼达人》、《愤怒 的小鸟》是装机热门。 而发布于 2012 年的黑暗奇幻风 ARPG《艾诺迪亚 4》，在那时全球手游市场上都是能叫得上号的精品。 这个说法并不夸张，当初接触到这款单机内购手游的国内玩家，大多数玩的是汉化过的破解版，或者干脆用八门神器自己修改游戏数据。现在十几年过去 了， ...