Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved production activities and market demand [2][3] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [2] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory prices improved, with indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, influenced by rising international oil prices [2] Key Industries - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continue to expand, with PMIs at 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4%, respectively [3] - The construction sector shows a significant recovery, with the business activity index at 52.8%, indicating robust infrastructure project progress [4][5] Market Expectations - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding future development [5] - The construction industry's business activity expectation index rose to 53.9%, reflecting increased confidence among construction firms [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity is expected to improve as policy effects continue to manifest, with investment and consumption-related demands likely to be released [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic climate in China is showing signs of expansion, with key indices indicating a recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in June. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7% in June, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [3] - Production and new orders indices were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating accelerated manufacturing activities and improved market demand [3] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [3] - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 51.2%, indicating significant support for the manufacturing sector, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively [4] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continued to expand, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index reached 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The service sector's business activity index was at 50.1%, showing stability, although some consumer-related sectors experienced a decline in activity [5] - The construction industry saw a significant increase, with a business activity index of 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities [5] Group 3: Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [7][8]

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, up from 49.5% in May, aligning with market expectations[2] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%[5] - Large and medium enterprises showed improved sentiment, with large enterprises' PMI rising to 51.2% and medium enterprises' PMI to 48.6%, while small enterprises' PMI fell to 47.3%[5] Economic Recovery Indicators - External disturbances have weakened, leading to a recovery in new export orders, which continue to rise[3] - High-energy-consuming industries are stabilizing, with their PMI increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 47.8%[15] - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, primarily due to the end of holiday effects, but remains in the expansion zone[27] Price and Inventory Trends - The raw material purchase price index rose to 48.4%, and the factory price index increased to 46.2%, both recovering from previous declines[23] - The raw material inventory index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.0%, indicating improved production activity[23] Construction Sector - The construction sector's business activity index rose significantly to 52.8%, reflecting a positive trend in housing construction activities[32] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to further improve supply-demand dynamics[33]

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Recovery - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing improvements of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [2] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises due to the recovery in production and demand [2] Group 2: Price Index Recovery - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index were at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, both rising by 1.5 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [3] - The increase in prices was influenced by rising international crude oil prices, particularly affecting the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries, while the black metal smelting and rolling processing industries saw a decline in price indices due to falling iron ore prices and insufficient terminal demand [3] Group 3: Business Activity Index in Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.5%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service industry business activity index was at 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, with certain sectors like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth, while consumer-related sectors experienced a decline [5] - The construction industry business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities, particularly in civil engineering [5] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.7%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across enterprises [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were at 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively, contributing to the overall expansion reflected in the comprehensive PMI output index [6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China rose for two consecutive months, indicating a continuous improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][4] - In June, the manufacturing PMI reached 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, signaling a stable expansion in production activities [2][4] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, reflecting a stable expansion in both supply and demand within the manufacturing sector [4][6] Group 2 - The non-manufacturing sector continued to expand, with the business activity index showing a slight increase while remaining in the expansion zone [8] - Key industries such as telecommunications, financial services, and insurance reported business activity indices above 60%, indicating robust growth in these sectors [8] - The construction industry, particularly civil engineering, maintained a high business activity index above 55% for three consecutive months, driven by increased investment activities [10] Group 3 - The resilience of the Chinese economy is highlighted by the strong internal momentum and stable production operations, with the PMI serving as a crucial leading indicator [12][14] - Despite short-term fluctuations due to external factors, the overall economic growth remains stable, supported by ongoing policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors shows signs of recovery and expansion, indicating improved economic resilience in June 2023 [1][10]. Manufacturing Sector - In June, China's manufacturing PMI reached 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of growth [3]. - The new orders index rose to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone after being below 50% for two months, reflecting improved supply and demand conditions in the manufacturing sector [3]. - The Vice President of the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation noted that the implementation of various policies has contributed to the gradual improvement in both supply and demand in manufacturing [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion and a faster pace of growth [6]. - Key industries such as telecommunications, financial services, capital market services, and insurance reported business activity indices above 60%, suggesting robust growth in these sectors [6]. Overall Economic Performance - The overall economic performance in the first half of 2023 shows a trend of stability and improvement, with the PMI indicating strong resilience despite fluctuations [10]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index has consistently remained above 50% throughout the year, indicating stable expansion in non-manufacturing activities [10].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][18] - The production index was 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production activities in manufacturing [2][19] - The new orders index rose to 50.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, indicating improved market demand [3][19] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-indices - The raw materials inventory index was 48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating a continued narrowing of the decline in raw material inventory levels [3][19] - The employment index decreased to 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, reflecting a slight decline in employment sentiment within manufacturing [3][19] - The supplier delivery time index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating faster delivery times from suppliers [3][19] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [6][22] - The construction industry business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, indicating accelerated expansion in construction activities [7][23] - The service industry business activity index was 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability in the service sector [7][23] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sub-indices - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in market demand [10][22] - The input prices index was 49.9%, up 1.7 percentage points, indicating stable input prices for non-manufacturing activities [10][22] - The business activity expectation index was 55.6%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating continued optimism among non-manufacturing enterprises [11][22] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [16][24] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively, contributing to the overall expansion [24][18]

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's economy demonstrated resilience and stability, with positive growth in industrial production, service sectors, and fixed asset investments, supported by proactive macro policies [1][6]. Industrial Production - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [2]. - From January to May, the industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.5, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity [2]. Service Sector - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - From January to May, the service production index increased by 5.9% year-on-year [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.2, indicating stable growth, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.5, suggesting positive future expectations [3]. Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.93% [4]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy significantly boosted sales in various categories, with home appliances and communication equipment seeing growth rates of 53.0% and 33.0%, respectively [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 60,402 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [5]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6%, while manufacturing investment saw a robust increase of 8.5% [5]. - High-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, experienced significant investment growth rates of 41.4% and 24.2%, respectively [5]. Overall Economic Outlook - The combination of policy effects has led to a stable economic environment, showcasing China's economic resilience and vitality [6]. - However, challenges remain, including external uncertainties and the need to strengthen domestic demand [6].