Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - Domestic demand is showing a mild recovery, which is expected to accelerate, while external demand is impacted by tariff shocks, leading to a divergence in industry performance [2]. - The sportswear segment is experiencing strong demand, particularly in high-performance outdoor products, with significant market growth potential [2]. - The report highlights the resilience of certain brands in the men's and women's apparel sectors, while children's clothing brands are still under pressure [2]. - The home textile sector is benefiting from government subsidies, leading to better performance for key players [2]. - The personal care and household cleaning segment is in a growth phase, driven by diversification and quality upgrades [2]. - The textile manufacturing sector faces challenges from tariff impacts but maintains global competitiveness among leading manufacturers [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 613.8 billion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [2]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in retail growth due to low base effects from the previous year [2]. External Demand - Textile and apparel exports totaled 116.7 billion USD from January to May, with a year-on-year increase of 1% [2]. - Vietnam's textile exports grew by 12%, indicating a shift in supply chains due to tariff policies [2]. Sportswear Segment - The sportswear sector is leading in market performance, with brands like Anta and FILA expected to see significant revenue growth [2]. - The report predicts a 40% increase in revenue for outdoor brands in Q2 2025 [3]. Apparel Sector - Men's apparel brands like HLA are expected to show modest growth, while high-end brands may face profit declines [2]. - Women's apparel brand Geli Si is projected to outperform peers, with a significant rebound in profits [2]. Home Textiles - Key players like Luolai and Mercury are expected to see revenue growth of 3% and 15%, respectively, in Q2 2025 [3]. - The report notes that Fuanna is still undergoing operational adjustments, with expected declines in revenue and profit [2]. Personal Care and Household Cleaning - Companies like Nobon and Weijian are projected to achieve revenue growth of 28% and 20%, respectively, in Q2 2025 [2]. Textile Manufacturing - Major manufacturers like Shenzhou International are expected to see revenue growth of 15% in H1 2025, despite short-term profit pressures [2]. - The report highlights that upstream textile companies are facing order declines due to tariff impacts [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with recovery potential, such as sportswear, discount retail, personal care, and home textiles [2]. - Specific stock recommendations include Anta Sports, HLA, and Luolai [2][5].

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 7 月 9 日星期三 经济要闻 1. 国家发改委：新增 100 亿元以工代赈投资助力重点群体就业。国家发展改 革委日前新增下达 100 亿元中央预算内投资，支持 26 个省（区、市）和新疆 生产建设兵团实施 1975 个以工代赈项目。这批项目预计发放劳务报酬 45.9 亿元，带动 31 万名重点人群就业，包括脱贫人口、返乡农民工等群体。项目 劳务报酬占中央投资比例提高至不低于 40%，重点实施村道巷道硬化等劳动 密集型工程。截至 6 月底，2025 年度以工代赈中央投资累计达 295 亿元，预 计带动 70 余万名困难群众就业，发放劳务报酬超 110 亿元。下一步，国家发 改委将推动项目全部开工建设，强化重点群体就业保障。（资料来源：同花顺） 数据来源：《七月金股汇》 2025 年 06 月 29 日， 东兴证券研究所 2.发改委等三部门：通过地方政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的零碳园区 项目。发改委等三部门印发开展零碳园区建设的通知，统筹利用现有资金渠 道支持零碳园区建设，鼓励各地区对零碳园区建设给予资金支持，通过地方 政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的项目。鼓励 ...

Core Viewpoint - The June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of -0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of -3.3%. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI remains at -1.38%, consistent with May and at a low since February 2024 [1][5]. Summary by Sections CPI and PPI Analysis - The CPI data met expectations, with high-frequency data estimating a 0.14% year-on-year increase, while the PPI was significantly lower than the expected -3.0% [1][5]. - The PPI showed a base effect advantage with a 0.2% month-on-month recovery, but year-on-year figures continued to decline, indicating potential discrepancies in high-frequency data representation [1][7]. Price Movements in Industries - In June, the PPI for coal processing fell by 5.5% month-on-month, and the prices in coal mining and black metal industries also decreased, reflecting weaker performance compared to high-frequency data [1][7]. - The durable consumer goods segment of PPI fell from 0.1% to -0.1%, with notable declines in the computer and textile sectors, possibly influenced by tariff uncertainties and the "618" e-commerce promotions [2][8]. Positive Trends in PPI - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2%, indicating initial positive effects of the "anti-involution" trend in production [3][9]. - The prices for complete vehicles and new energy vehicles rose by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, suggesting a narrowing of year-on-year declines in these categories [10]. Notable CPI Details - Key details in CPI include a 0.3% month-on-month decrease in alcohol prices, a shift in clothing prices from increase to decrease during the "618" sales, and a 0.4% decline in transportation tools, indicating ongoing price reductions in the automotive retail sector [4][10]. - Medical service prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with a year-to-date increase of 0.7%, while pork prices fell by 1.2% month-on-month, although a rebound was noted post-June 26 [4][10]. Overall Price Stability and Future Outlook - The current task of stabilizing prices remains significant, with no signs of a turning point in the simulated deflation index. Various factors, including supply-demand fundamentals and external demand fluctuations, are influencing prices [4][13]. - Positive signs include a moderate rise in core CPI year-on-year, improvements in coal and meat prices since July, and initial positive signals in automotive manufacturing prices [4][13]. Key future indicators will be the recovery of local project starts and the continued effectiveness of the "anti-involution" trend [4][13].

Group 1 - The core index, the CN Consumer Comprehensive Index, closed at 4944.28 points, showing a decline of 3.24% over the past month, an increase of 8.69% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 6.17% [1] - The top ten holdings in the CN Consumer Comprehensive Index include Alibaba (18.38%), Meituan-W (6.71%), Pinduoduo (6.5%), BYD Company (4.13%), Midea Group (3.61%), JD.com (3.36%), BYD (3.01%), Trip.com (2.91%), Gree Electric Appliances (2.1%), and Pop Mart (1.93%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CN Consumer Comprehensive Index holdings is distributed as follows: Shenzhen Stock Exchange (23.30%), New York Stock Exchange (23.12%), Hong Kong Stock Exchange (21.33%), Shanghai Stock Exchange (16.32%), Nasdaq Global Select Market (15.52%), Nasdaq Stock Market (0.21%), Beijing Stock Exchange (0.15%), and Nasdaq Capital Market (0.05%) [2] - The industry composition of the CN Consumer Comprehensive Index holdings includes Passenger Cars and Parts (26.12%), Durable Goods (16.44%), Consumer Services (9.23%), Textiles, Apparel, and Jewelry (5.58%), and Retail (3.73%) [2] Group 3 - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December. Temporary adjustments may occur under special circumstances [3] - When the CN Consumer Comprehensive Index undergoes sample adjustments, the corresponding index samples will also be adjusted. Events such as delisting, mergers, or changes in industry classification will lead to necessary adjustments [3]

Group 1: Coal Industry - The introduction of the "430, 531" policies is expected to reduce the profitability of new energy projects, leading to a slowdown in new energy development after a surge in installations in early 2025, with a potential demand turning point for thermal coal expected around 2027 [2][5][6] - The rapid growth of new energy installations has significantly pressured thermal power demand, with the share of thermal power generation capacity decreasing from 66.75% in 2015 to 43.88% in 2024 [4] - The report recommends leading companies in the coal sector, including Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Jinkong Energy, China Shenhua, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the easing of pressure on thermal coal [3] Group 2: Beverage Industry - The tea beverage industry is experiencing high demand driven by competition in the takeaway market and the introduction of new product categories, with a forecasted revenue growth of 16% in 2025 [7][8] - The company anticipates a double-digit profit growth in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in product launches and improvements in supply chain efficiency [8] - The competitive landscape is improving as price wars in the tea beverage sector have begun to stabilize, benefiting brand players [7] Group 3: Stablecoin Industry - The stablecoin market is projected to expand significantly, with potential growth to $3.5 trillion driven by applications in crypto asset trading, cross-border payments, consumer payments, and traditional capital markets [14][15] - Circle, a leading stablecoin issuer, is focusing on building an ecosystem around its USDC stablecoin, which has shown strong revenue growth but faces challenges related to profit margins and regulatory uncertainties [15][14] Group 4: Robotics Industry - The tactile sensor market is expected to see substantial growth, with the potential for a trillion-dollar market as humanoid robots become more prevalent [16][19] - The report highlights the importance of tactile sensors in the development of humanoid robots, indicating a significant market opportunity as production scales increase [19][16] - Various technological routes in tactile sensing are being explored, with a focus on integrating multiple technologies to overcome performance and cost barriers [17][19]

寻找下一个明星——港股通 2025 年 9 月调整名单预测 20250708 摘要 港股市场整体呈现震荡但缓慢上升的格局，盈利预期稳定、无风险利率 下降及高股息板块投资者增加是主要驱动因素。当前市场隐含股权风险 溢价约为 5.4%，情绪指标略有上行空间。 港股通对港股市场影响显著，港股通投资者贡献的成交量已达总成交量 的 25%，未来需重视港股通纳入标的带来的投资机会。低成本资金通过 港股通抬高指数估值，压低隐含 ERP 波动区间。 无风险利率环境下降将推动港股市场，美联储降息预期最早可能在 2025 年 9 月或第四季度实现。HIBOR 波动主要受短期 IPO 活动和派息 影响，对主流投资者资金成本影响相对间接。 公司被剔除出港股通通常对其股价产生较大压力，而被纳入港股通的公 司，其股价平均涨幅通常为正。关注哪些公司可能入通或出通，对投资 具有重要指导意义。 周六福受益于金价上涨和滞后需求释放，黄金珠宝销售额在社零全品类 中排名靠前，并保持双位数增长。公司聚焦下沉市场，全国性布局完善， 产品矩阵丰富，线上收入占比高。 Q&A 申万宏源对 2025 年下半年港股市场的策略观点是什么？ 根据申万宏源的半年度策略 ...

内容概要：周口市，河南省辖地级市，位于河南省东南部。2023年以来，周口市认真贯彻落实省委、省 政府决策部署，锚定"两个确保"，加快实施"十大战略"三年行动计划，推动经济加速修复。2024年周口 市地区生产总值3635.62亿元，同比增长6.5%。近年来，周口市坚定不移坚持以科技创新为引领，聚焦 推进新型工业化，大力发展新质生产力，推动主导特色优势产业延链补链强链，打造特色鲜明的先进制 造业生产基地，加快建设工业强市，重点推进龙头企业技术改造、智能化改造和绿色化改造，加快形成 新的经济增长点。在此背景下，周口市产业体系构建取得新突破，纺织服装、食品加工、装备制造等主 导优势产业加速集聚，产业核心竞争力不断增强，形成了一批独具特色的产业链条。主导产业的强劲增 长，有力支撑了周口市工业的发展，成为工业经济稳定增长的坚实基础。2024年周口市规模以上工业 中，六大支柱产业增加值增长12.6%，较规模以上工业增加值增速高出2.5个百分点。 上市企业：莲花控股（600186.SH）、金丹科技（300829.SZ）、凯旺科技（301182.SZ） 相关企业：莲花控股股份有限公司、益海(周口)粮油工业有限公司、扶沟牧原农牧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience and innovation of the private economy in Quanzhou, Fujian, showcasing how local enterprises adapt to market demands and technological advancements to maintain growth and competitiveness in a challenging environment [3][5][9]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Quanzhou's private sector has over 1.65 million operating entities, with private investment growing by 8% in the first five months of the year, surpassing the national average [3]. - The added value of large-scale private industry in Quanzhou increased by 8.7%, indicating steady growth despite external pressures [3]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - Xintai (Fujian) Technology Co., Ltd. is set to launch a new weaving technology that combines advantages of existing methods, enhancing the value of shoe uppers by over 30% [4]. - Xunxing Zipper Technology Co., Ltd. has developed zippers for space suits that can withstand increased tensile strength, showcasing a commitment to innovation in niche markets [6]. - Xinheng New Materials Co., Ltd. has achieved a market share of over 70% in domestic nuclear power coatings, breaking foreign monopolies with products that last 30 to 50 years [7]. Group 3: Market Adaptation - Companies in Quanzhou are focusing on customized and differentiated products to capture market share, with Iron Tuo Machinery Co., Ltd. increasing its international market share to nearly 50% through tailored solutions [11]. - The food and beverage sector is also targeting niche markets, with companies like Panpan Foods and Shuhua Sports developing products that cater to health-conscious consumers [11]. Group 4: Smart Manufacturing - The implementation of smart manufacturing technologies has led to a 20% increase in production efficiency and a 10% reduction in labor costs for companies like Qipai Group [12]. - 87% of industrial enterprises in Quanzhou are undergoing digital transformation, maintaining the highest scale of industrial digitization in Fujian Province for five consecutive years [12]. Group 5: Government Support - The local government plays a crucial role in supporting the private economy, facilitating international trade opportunities and expediting intellectual property processes to enhance innovation [14][15]. - Initiatives such as the establishment of a rapid intellectual property rights protection center have significantly reduced the time for design patent approvals, fostering a more innovative environment [14][15].

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent announcement by President Trump regarding the imposition of tariffs on imports from 14 countries, which has increased clarity in the textile and apparel industry [1] - Vietnam is positioned favorably with the lowest tariff rate of 20% among the listed countries, making it more attractive for clients and manufacturers [3][5] - The report anticipates that long-term tariff costs will likely be passed on to consumers, impacting profit margins for brands and supply chain entities [3][4] Summary by Sections Tariff Announcement - On July 7, President Trump announced tariffs on imports from various countries, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% depending on the country [1] - The tariffs on Vietnam's exports to the U.S. are set at 20%, which is significantly lower than those imposed on other countries [3] Industry Impact - Vietnam's competitive tariff rate is expected to attract more orders for manufacturing companies, especially those with established production capacities [3][5] - The report notes that existing manufacturers in Vietnam will have a competitive edge due to the increasing costs and difficulties associated with expanding production capacity [3] Future Considerations - There is uncertainty regarding the tariff levels for major manufacturing countries like China, Sri Lanka, and India, which could affect the overall market dynamics [3][4] - Companies like NIKE have already begun to raise prices in North America to mitigate the impact of tariffs, indicating a trend that may continue across the industry [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with established production capabilities in Vietnam, such as Superwin International Holdings (2111.HK), Crystal International (2232.HK), and Nanshan Holdings (1982.HK), with a recommendation for Shenzhou International (2313.HK) [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng with a target price of HKD 5.6 [1][4][7] Core Insights - Bosideng reported a revenue increase of 11.6% year-on-year to RMB 25.902 billion and a net profit increase of 14.3% to RMB 3.514 billion for FY25, with a high dividend payout ratio of 84.1% [1][2][4] - The company continues to focus on its main brand and product innovation to drive growth, with projected EPS for 2026-2028 at RMB 0.34, 0.38, and 0.42 respectively [1][4] Revenue and Profit Growth - For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, the group achieved a revenue of RMB 25.902 billion, up 11.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 3.514 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in gross margin [2][5] - The main brand's revenue grew by 10.1% to RMB 18.481 billion, while the OEM business saw a significant increase of 26.4% to RMB 3.373 billion [2][3] Business Segment Performance - The down jacket business generated revenue of RMB 21.668 billion, with a gross margin decrease of 1.6 percentage points to 63.4% [2] - The women's wear segment faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 20.6% to RMB 0.651 billion and a gross margin drop of 4.3 percentage points to 63.2% [3] - The diversified business segment reported a revenue increase of 2.8% to RMB 0.209 billion, with the school uniform business growing by 3.0% [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 10.1% for FY26, 10.7% for FY27, and 10.2% for FY28, with net profit growth rates of 10.9%, 11.2%, and 11.1% respectively [5][10] - The projected gross margin is expected to stabilize around 57.3% for FY26 and beyond [5][11]