Report Core View - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. China's manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49.0%. The inventory is rising, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The supply side is disturbed, and China's manufacturing production activity slowed down in October with the PMI at 49.0%, considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 86,610 with a basis of 870, showing a premium over futures, considered bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 4, copper inventory increased by 300 to 133,900 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,348 tons to 116,140 tons last week, considered neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, considered neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long and the long position is increasing, considered bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine, the copper price will fluctuate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned, but specific impacts of "利多" (bullish) and "利空" (bearish) are not detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance data from 2018 - 2024 [19][21]. Other Information - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has declined [13][15].

Core Viewpoint - In the context of significant disruptions in existing projects and bottlenecks in new projects, global major copper mining companies are expected to see a nearly 5% year-on-year decline in output by Q3 2025, with a continuation of contraction anticipated in Q4 2025 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic refined copper apparent demand is expected to remain stable in Q4 2025, but supply may decline quarter-on-quarter due to raw material shortages and potential "anti-involution" effects, leading to inventory consumption days dropping below the five-year average of less than 10 days by year-end [1] - With an upward revision in global economic expectations and increasing trade risks, the fragile low inventory situation may exacerbate price elasticity upwards, with LME copper prices projected to range between $10,000 and $12,000 per ton in Q4 2025 [1] Future Projections - Domestic power grid investment and global AI development are expected to drive steady demand growth, with an anticipated demand increase of approximately 200,000 tons next year [1] - Global refined copper is projected to face shortages of 210,000 tons and 300,000 tons in the next two years, contrasting with a surplus of 280,000 tons last year, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1] - The LME copper price midpoint is expected to rise from $9,700 per ton this year to $11,000 per ton [1] Investment Recommendations - The combination of raw material shortages and potential "anti-involution" is likely to support a contraction in domestic refined copper supply in Q4, alongside stable demand, leading to a moderate reduction in domestic inventory [1] - The anticipated low supply and steady demand next year will widen the global refined copper supply gap by 50%, with LME copper prices expected to demonstrate upward elasticity above $10,000 per ton, suggesting investment opportunities in the copper sector [1]

中信证券研报指出，在存量项目接连发生重大扰动、增量项目遭遇瓶颈的背景下，Q3全球主要铜矿企 业产量同比下降近5%，Q4有望延续收缩。原料短缺以及潜在"反内卷"将助力Q4国内精炼铜供给收缩， 叠加需求平稳，国内库存有望温和去化，而明年供给低迷以及需求稳健将助力全球精炼铜供给缺口拉阔 50%，LME铜价有望在10000美元/吨以上充分展现向上弹性。推荐铜板块配置机遇。（中信证券研究） ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.2%, gaining 52 points to close at 26,210 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.20%. The morning trading volume in Hong Kong was HKD 120.4 billion [1] - Baidu Group's autonomous driving service platform, Luobo Kuaipao, reported over 250,000 weekly orders as of October 31, with 100% being fully autonomous orders, leading to a more than 6% increase in Baidu's stock price [1] - Tencent established a new company, Reading Comic Network Technology, in Hainan, resulting in a 1.67% increase in Tencent's stock price [2] Group 2 - Coal stocks continued to rise, with institutions optimistic about the coal cycle and dividend logic due to stricter safety regulations and expected price increases during peak season. Strength Development rose by 5.84% and Yida Commodity rose by 4.6% [2] - Cat's Eye Entertainment saw a 4.6% increase in stock price following the announcement of the release date for "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Arc," with institutions suggesting to monitor the performance of upcoming films [3] - Huazhu Group's stock rose by 4.95% after the company launched its new brand, "All Season Grand View," with institutions optimistic about the company's ongoing brand upgrade efforts [4] Group 3 - Minmetals Group's stock rose over 5% after announcing that its subsidiary received orders for AI server liquid cooling products [5] - Apple-related stocks faced declines due to delays in Apple's AI plans in China, with companies like Q Technology falling by 9%, Hong Teng Precision by 6%, and FIH Mobile by 4.81% [5] - Jiangxi Copper's stock fell over 3% as a result of declining copper concentrate smelting processing fees affecting gross margins, although institutions expect the overall impact to be manageable [6] Group 4 - Gold stocks continued to weaken, with spot gold prices falling below USD 3,980, and institutions predicting a period of consolidation before the end of the year. Lingbao Gold fell by 5% and Jihai Resources by 4.96% [6] - Stablecoin-related stocks collectively declined, with Guotai Junan International dropping by 12%, Lion King Holdings by 3.6%, and Yunfeng Financial by 5.87% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in copper prices this week was mainly affected by Powell's hawkish speech at the Fed's interest - rate meeting, which strengthened the US dollar and suppressed the rise of non - ferrous metals. Also, the decline in China's manufacturing PMI data and weak domestic industrial demand expectations contributed to the drop. However, fundamentally, the long - term upward trend of copper prices is hard to change. The shortage of copper concentrates and production cuts at smelters will lead to a decline in copper output. With global copper inventories at a low level, there is still an expected supply gap even if demand increases significantly. Currently, the decline in copper prices should be seen as a correction, and in the medium - to - long - term, copper prices will remain strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Situation - In October, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the prosperity level. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3][5]. - On October 30, 2025, the Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan brought positive signals to the market. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and both sides will adjust relevant tariff and export control measures [7]. - On October 30, 2025, the Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, lowering the interest rate to the 3.75% - 4.00% range [7]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The weekly high was 89,270 yuan/ton, the low was 86,530 yuan/ton, the weekly volatility was 3.12%, and the range decline was 0.81% [9]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of October 31, the average spot premium in East China was 0 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was also 0 yuan/ton. Due to the low willingness of downstream buyers to purchase at high prices, the premium of holders was under pressure, and the spot premium remained at a low level [14]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure - As of October 31, LME copper rose 0.68% this week, closing at $10,915/ton. Although there was a slight decline recently, the overall upward trend continued. Recently, it was under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar [19]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - Customs data on October 31 showed that the port inventory of copper concentrates was 461,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.11%. In September 2025, China imported 25.87 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.23%. This week, the inventory of copper concentrates rebounded but was still significantly lower than the same period last year. The copper mine resources were tight, and the accident at the Indonesian copper mine was expected to affect global copper supply until next year [24]. - There have been frequent disruptions at copper mines this year. For example, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia had a mudslide in September, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine had an earthquake in May, and the El Teniente mine suspended underground operations in July [24]. - On October 28, Indonesia announced that it would issue a copper concentrate export license to Amman Mining International, which may ease the tight supply of copper concentrates to some extent [24]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - From January to September 2025, China imported 1.4496 million metal tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 1.39%. Affected by Document No. 770, the procurement of anode copper was still affected. With the recent rise in copper prices, the supply of scrap copper is expected to increase to make up for the shortage of copper concentrates [29]. 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of October 31, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $42.06/ton dry, and the refining fee (RC) was - 4.13 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The long - term contract price was still under negotiation, and the market expected it to be zero or negative due to the tight supply of copper concentrates [33]. - In October, 8 smelters carried out maintenance, involving a rough smelting capacity of 1.4 million tons, and the impact on production increased by 47,300 tons compared with September. In November, 5 smelters are expected to carry out maintenance, and copper production is showing a downward trend [33][37]. - The rise in gold, silver, and sulfuric acid prices and the long - term contract price can make up for some losses of smelters, but the continuous negative smelting processing fees still have a negative impact on smelters [33]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In October, SMM's statistics showed that China's electrolytic copper output decreased by 29,400 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 2.62% month - on - month and an increase of 9.63% year - on - year. In November, 5 smelters are expected to carry out maintenance, and copper production will decline [37]. - In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and exported 26,400 tons of unwrought refined copper cathodes and cathode profiles, a year - on - year increase of 81.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 28.15% [37]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.4665 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%. The recent rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand to some extent, and the downstream operating rate has declined slightly. However, in the long term, the demand for copper is still strong, driven by investment in power grid projects, the development of AI computing power, and the stabilization of the real estate market [42]. 3.10 Copper Products - According to the research of Steel Union, more than half of the sampled refined copper rod enterprises have reduced or stopped production, and several enterprises have plans to do so in the future. It is expected that only 25% of the sampled enterprises will maintain normal production in the long term, mainly due to the sharp increase in copper prices and the lack of enthusiasm of downstream buyers [47]. - Copper tube enterprises mainly sell through long - term contracts, so their production and operation are relatively stable. The market is in the off - season, and enterprises adjust their operating rates according to actual orders. The supply of copper foil is still tight due to the strong demand in the downstream new energy and consumer electronics markets, and the operating load remains high [47]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of September, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%, and the installed capacity of wind power was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. From January to September, the average utilization hours of the country's power generation equipment were 2,368 hours, a decrease of 251 hours compared with the same period last year [51]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, and the sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. Among them, the sales area and volume of residential housing decreased by 5.6% and 7.6% respectively [57]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In September 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. From October 1 - 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 632,000, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the penetration rate was 56.1% [61]. - In the 2025 "trade - in" program for cars, new energy vehicles accounted for 57.2%, driving a 24.4% year - on - year increase in the retail sales of new energy passenger cars from January to September, with a market penetration rate of 52.1% [61]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - LME copper inventories continued to decline. As of October 31, LME copper inventories decreased by 1,725 tons to 134,600 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating the pressure on global copper supply. Small changes in copper supply can easily cause large fluctuations in market prices [66]. - As of October 31, COMEX copper inventories were 355,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.21%. Since the 232 copper tariff investigation, COMEX copper inventories have increased to 300% higher than the same period last year. Although COMEX copper inventories are at a high level, the global total inventory is still low, and the large amount of copper in COMEX cannot adjust the global copper supply imbalance [66]. - As of October 30, the total copper inventories in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong were 114,700 tons, showing a decline. Although there were still some export goods arriving at individual markets, some warehouse goods were shipped overseas for warehousing, resulting in an overall decline in inventory [72]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to increase. High - priced copper suppressed downstream procurement demand, reducing the circulation of copper and leading to inventory accumulation. As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.23%. Although the copper concentrate resources in the market were scarce, the mid - end smelting capacity was still operating normally [72].

Group 1: Market Strategy and Economic Outlook - The current market is transitioning from a "technology bull" to a "wealth bull," indicating a favorable time to invest in cyclical sectors [6][10] - The third quarter of 2025 shows a recovery in profitability, with A-share cumulative profit growth expected to reach 11% in 2026, marking a shift to an earnings-driven bull market [14] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a need for GDP growth of at least 4.1% annually, indicating a supportive environment for cyclical industries [7] Group 2: Industry Performance Insights - The computer industry experienced a revenue increase of 10.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit rising by 47.77% [19] - The materials and manufacturing sectors showed a significant improvement in free cash flow, with a year-on-year increase of 1,100 million yuan in the third quarter [16] - The TMT sector's capital expenditure (CAPEX) expansion is impacting cash flow, with a notable decrease in free cash flow by 928 million yuan in the third quarter [15] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Huada Jiutian reported a revenue of 8.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant decline in net profit due to reduced government subsidies [46][47] - Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 41.60 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 18.51%, driven by a stable CDMO business [50][51] - New Dairy's revenue for the first three quarters reached 84.34 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 31.48%, indicating strong operational performance [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The long - term upward logic of copper remains unchanged despite the transformation of new and old driving forces. Although the supply is tight and the traditional consumption growth rate has declined, the growth of new consumption areas such as energy storage batteries, new energy vehicles, and future AI will offset the negative impact of the decline in traditional consumption [2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Copper Market Overview 3.1.1 Market Review In October, copper prices entered an accelerated upward phase, with the lowest price on October 10 reaching $10,374 per ton for LME copper or 82,630 yuan per ton for SHFE copper, and the highest reaching the historical high pressure level of $11,094 per ton for LME copper or 88,700 yuan per ton for SHFE copper. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff statement had limited impact. Fundamentally, the tightness of copper mines intensified, and domestic production declined. Consumption was weak, and downstream acceptance of high prices was low [5][11][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook In terms of supply, the incremental supply of copper mines is expected to be 50,000 tons, lower than 2024. The overall supply of copper mines is more tense, and the global refined copper production is expected to increase by 950,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. The consumption growth rate is expected to drop to 3.4%. In terms of price, the long - term loose monetary policy in the US is positive, and the support level is 85,000 - 86,000 yuan per ton, with a short - term pressure level of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan per ton [13][14]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation Unilateral: Adopt the idea of buying on dips, with a support level of 85,000 - 86,000 yuan per ton and a short - term pressure level of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan per ton. Arbitrage: If the export window opens, exit the positive spread temporarily and re - enter later. Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Sino - US Relations Eased, and the Expectation of Fed Rate Cuts Strengthened On October 10, Trump's tariff statement had limited impact, and Sino - US relations later eased. On October 29, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the probability of a December rate cut dropped. The US employment data was weak, and the CPI was relatively stable. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly, but consumer growth was weak [23]. 3.3 Copper Mine Disturbances Increased, and the Tight Supply Situation was Difficult to Alleviate 3.3.1 Sharp Drop in the Incremental Supply of Copper Concentrates In 2025, the global incremental supply of copper concentrates is expected to be about 50,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 0.22%. The supply - side disturbances increased, and the processing fee is likely to be less than or equal to $0 per ton. Some major mining companies reduced their production plans, while the import volume of copper concentrates in China increased [34][35][36]. 3.3.2 Decline in the Start - up of Recycling Processing Enterprises, and the Tight Supply of Scrap Copper was Temporarily Alleviated The global supply of scrap copper did not decrease, but the trade flow changed. The import volume of scrap copper in China was relatively stable, but the growth rate was lower than last year. The tax - refund policy affected the start - up of recycling copper rod enterprises. The import volume of anode copper decreased, while the import volume of scrap copper ingots increased [44][45][47]. 3.3.3 Accelerated Transmission of Raw Material Supply Shortage to the Smelting End The global refined copper production is expected to increase by 950,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. Overseas smelters cut production, and domestic production also declined due to factors such as maintenance and anode plate shortage. The import of refined copper in China increased in September, but the inflow speed may slow down [50][51][53]. 3.4 Consumption Analysis 3.4.1 Obvious Decline in the Growth Rate of Traditional Consumption - **Real Estate Market**: From January to September, the sales area and completion area of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year. The consumption of electrolytic copper was still dragged down. It is estimated that the copper consumption will decrease by 123,700 tons to 1,113,700 tons [61][62]. - **Power Grid and Power Projects**: From January to September, the investment in the power grid increased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the investment in power projects increased by 0.6%. High copper prices inhibited the procurement of downstream enterprises, and the export of copper cables may decline in October [67][68]. - **Home Appliances**: The production schedule of household air - conditioners in November decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected that the annual consumption growth rate of air - conditioners will drop to 5%, and the copper consumption of white goods will increase from 2,168,300 tons to 2,267,800 tons [78][81]. 3.4.2 Resilience of Automobile Consumption - **Domestic Automobile Consumption**: In September, domestic automobile production and sales increased significantly. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35.2% and 34.9% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be driven by the policy of resuming the purchase tax in 2026 [86][88]. - **New Energy Vehicle Consumption in Europe and the US**: From January to August, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 23.46% year - on - year. In the US and Europe, new energy vehicle sales also showed growth trends. It is estimated that the global new energy vehicle copper consumption will increase from 1,220,800 tons in 2024 to 1,401,100 tons in 2025 [95][96]. 3.4.3 Unexpected Growth of Wind and Solar Power Generation - **Photovoltaic Installation**: From January to September, China's new photovoltaic installation capacity increased by 49.34% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the annual new installation capacity forecast. It is estimated that the global new photovoltaic installation capacity will reach 630GW in 2025 [104][108]. - **Wind Power Installation**: From January to September, China's new wind power installation capacity increased by 56.16% year - on - year. It is predicted that China's new wind power installation will reach 105 - 115GW in 2025, and the global new wind power installation capacity will increase to 138GW [119]. 3.4.4 Explosive Growth of Lithium - Ion Copper Foil In 2024, the global copper foil production capacity was 2,544,000 tons. From January to September 2025, China's lithium - ion copper foil production was 624,300 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 38%. If calculated according to a 35% consumption growth rate, the annual production will reach 853,800 tons, driving domestic consumption by 1.38% [126]. 3.4.5 Consumption Summary It is expected that the global consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%. Overseas demand remains stable, while domestic demand weakens marginally. Processing enterprises and downstream raw material inventories are low, and there will be restocking demand if prices decline [131]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet In 2025, the growth of copper mines is expected to be 50,000 tons, and the refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons. The consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%. The supply gap of copper concentrates is expected to expand to 680,000 tons, and the refined copper is expected to have a surplus of 376,000 tons, mainly in the US. Domestically, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline from October to December [135][136].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-31 铜价暂陷震荡格局 需求端发力或仍需时日 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-10-30，沪铜主力合约开于 88780元/吨，收于 87960元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.85%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 87380元/吨，收于 87270 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.78%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价贴水130至升水20元/吨，均价贴水55元，较前日微涨5元，电铜价格区 间87800~88330元/吨。期铜早盘自89000元/吨高位回落，随后在88200元/吨附近窄幅整理。跨月价差维持Contango 结构，进口亏损近千元。市场采销情绪略有回暖，下游逢低刚需补货，两地情绪指数分别为2.87和3.15。盘初贴水 报价促进部分成交，好铜资源相对紧俏。预计明日下游备货意愿提升，但高铜价下持货商出货意愿不强，成交仍 将集中于低价资源。 重要资讯汇总： 国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普举行会晤；习近平指出，两国经贸团队就重要经贸问题深入交换意见，形成了 解决问题的共识；双方团队可以继续本着平等、尊重、互惠的原则谈下去，不断压缩问题 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's copper industry has achieved remarkable results in production, consumption, corporate strength, technological innovation, and economic benefits during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to build a copper industry powerhouse in two steps, focusing on aspects such as independent innovation, resource security, green and low - carbon development, and digitalization [1][2][5] - The global copper market is facing challenges such as high copper prices suppressing demand, accelerated copper - aluminum substitution, and pressure on smelting profits. However, there are also opportunities in new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence driving demand growth. The market will be in a long - term tight balance, requiring industry collaboration, technological innovation, and ecological construction to address challenges [11][18][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs "15th Five - Year Plan" to Fully Realize a Copper Industry Powerhouse "14th Five - Year Plan" Core Development Achievements - **Output and Consumption Scale**: China's copper industry has maintained rapid growth since reform and opening - up. In 2024, refined copper production accounted for nearly 50% of the global total, and consumption accounted for 58%. Per capita copper consumption reached 10 kg, and consumption increased from 1.266 billion tons to nearly 1.5 billion tons from 2020 - 2024. The power sector accounted for 50% of domestic consumption [2][6] - **Enterprise and Resource Status**: Two Chinese enterprises have entered the global top ten in the copper mining field, with Zijin Mining ranking among the top four. Domestic refined copper production capacity is concentrated in provinces such as Jiangxi, Shandong, Guangxi, and Anhui. Significant progress has been made in domestic and overseas resource exploration [6][7] - **Economic Benefits**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the copper industry's operating income increased from 1.7 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.9%. Profits increased from 45.4 billion yuan to 95.3 billion yuan, accounting for 22% of the non - ferrous metal industry [7] - **Technological Innovation**: China has achieved import substitution for copper tubes, copper plates, and copper foils. Ultra - thin copper foils with a length of over 20,000 meters have been produced, and energy consumption has been continuously optimized [7] "15th Five - Year Plan" Strategic Plan - **Overall Goals**: Build a copper industry powerhouse in two steps. From 2025 - 2030, focus on independent innovation, resource security, green and low - carbon development, and digitalization. From 2030 - 2035, achieve technological self - reliance, resource control, green production, smart factories, global layout, and talent cultivation [5] - **Key Goals**: Promote work in five major areas: scientific and technological research, resource security, green and low - carbon development, smart factory construction, and high - end talent deployment [10] Current Situation of the Copper Mine Industry and Corporate Green Transformation Global and Chinese Copper Mine Industry Patterns - **Global Pattern**: Global copper resources are concentrated in countries such as Chile and Peru. In 2024, global production was 2.298 billion tons, consumption was 2.35 billion tons, and the new energy sector accounted for 27% of consumption [11][12] - **Chinese Situation**: China's copper resource reserves are 41 million tons, accounting for 4.2% of the global total, with a static guarantee period of 24 years. In 2024, production was 1.364 billion tons (49.9% of the global total), and consumption accounted for 58% of the global total, with a high degree of external dependence [11][15] Challenges in the Development of the Copper Industry - **High Copper Prices Suppress Downstream Demand**: After the National Day in 2025, copper prices rose to nearly 89,000 yuan/ton. For every 10,000 - yuan increase in copper prices, the cable industry's cost increases by 12%, and the new energy vehicle procurement cost increases by 8%. In the first half of 2025, domestic copper processing enterprises' orders decreased by 7.3% year - on - year [16] - **Accelerated Copper - Aluminum Substitution**: When the copper - aluminum price ratio exceeds 4, downstream enterprises tend to use aluminum to replace copper. The aluminum industry association has conducted special research on "replacing copper with aluminum" [16] - **Pressure on Smelting Enterprise Profits**: In 2025, copper processing fees were negative, about - 40 US dollars/ton. Domestic smelting enterprises mainly rely on the profits of by - products such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver to subsidize production [17] Round - Table Discussion: Coexistence of Challenges and Opportunities Mine Copper Supply Shows "Short - Term Growth, Long - Term Bottlenecks" - Global copper demand is growing structurally, driven by new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence. It is predicted that in 2035, the global copper industry demand will reach 42 million tons, with a shortage of 4.5 million tons of mine copper [20] There are Delivery Arbitrage Opportunities When the LME - COMEX Copper Price Difference Reaches a Maximum of 2,500 US Dollars - The Trump administration's tariff policies have changed the global copper trade pattern, widening the LME - COMEX copper price difference. Trade enterprises can profit from cross - market arbitrage, but they also face challenges such as high market access thresholds and policy risks [22] The Low TC/RC is Corely Due to Supply - Demand Mismatch and Insufficient Industry Collaboration - The TC/RC has deteriorated significantly. In 2025, it dropped from 80 US dollars/ton in 2024 to 21.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 75%. The core reasons are supply - demand mismatch and insufficient industry collaboration [25] 2025 Global Copper Industry Chain Supply - Demand Pattern and Price Forecast - The US manufacturing reshoring and the Trump administration's tariff policies have affected the copper market. The supply - demand pattern of the copper industry chain is tense, and it is predicted that the copper price will rise to about 12,000 US dollars/ton in 2026 [28][29]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Despite the Fed's hawkish stance after the rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting results being slightly below expectations, the macro - sentiment is expected to remain positive due to rate cuts, progress in economic and trade negotiations, and the domestic "15th Five - Year Plan" guidelines. The industry shows a sustained tight supply expectation for copper mines, a tightened global electrolytic copper supply in the fourth quarter, low copper inventories in China and LME, and strong seasonal copper consumption. Therefore, the copper price, which has reached a historical high, may continue to strengthen [2][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Copper Price and Position - On October 29, both the London copper price and the SHFE copper price reached historical highs, with LME copper hitting a maximum of $11,200 per ton and SHFE copper's main contract reaching a maximum of 89,270 yuan per ton. Along with the price increase, the positions of LME and SHFE copper significantly increased, and the total position reached a relatively high historical level [2][4]. 3.2 Macro - sentiment - Global trade tensions have significantly eased. After the threat of a 100% tariff on China by US President Trump in early October, China and the US held video conferences and agreed to a new round of economic and trade negotiations. The market risk preference improved as the US signed reciprocal trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and a framework trade agreement with Thailand. Although the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC summit did not result in a formal agreement, the potential reduction of existing tariffs and the continuation of economic and trade negotiations are still beneficial to the market [5]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected on October 30, with the current federal funds rate at 3.75% - 4.0%, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Although Fed Chairman Powell's stance was hawkish, the interest rate's support for the economy is expected to strengthen. With reduced inflation pressure in the US and a slowdown in the labor market, the Fed's monetary policy is not expected to tighten. Domestically, the "15th Five - Year Plan" guidelines also boosted the overall sentiment [6]. 3.3 Supply - The supply of copper mines remains tight, and the degree of tightness has intensified. Since October, companies such as Teck Resources, Antofagasta, Anglo American, and Glencore have lowered their annual production guidance. According to the data of 16 listed companies, the annual production guidance in the third - quarter report was about 300,000 tons lower than that in the second - quarter report, with the annual production guidance at about 13.2 million tons, a decrease of about 170,000 tons compared to the actual production in 2024 and a reduction of over 3% compared to the 2024 annual report guidance [10][12]. - The tight supply of copper mines has led to a decline in the copper concentrate refining fee TC and a continuous decrease in the copper concentrate inventory at domestic ports, tightening the spot supply. It has also increased the probability of production cuts and maintenance at the smelting end. Overseas, Japanese and Indonesian smelters have announced maintenance or production cuts. Domestically, the production of electrolytic copper increased significantly in the first three quarters, mainly due to increased imports of copper concentrates, recovery of domestic copper concentrate production, increased production of blister copper from scrap copper, and consumption of copper concentrate inventories. However, in the fourth quarter, the supply of raw materials for domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to face greater pressure, with a significant reduction in the year - on - year increase in production and a decrease in the quarter - on - quarter production [12][19][24]. 3.4 Demand - The global visible inventory of electrolytic copper is not low but has a structural problem, with most of it concentrated in the COMEX market, while the inventories in SHFE and LME are low. The US may impose tariffs on refined copper in 2026, so there is a need to stockpile copper to hedge against tariff risks. The positive COMEX - LME spread and the once - opened import arbitrage window also create demand for copper imports in the US, and the US copper inventory is not expected to flow back to non - US markets in the short term [27]. - Although the rising copper price has suppressed downstream consumption willingness, the current downstream consumption of copper is not in the off - season, and there are still rigid demands in new energy, data centers, and power. With the reduced substitution of refined copper by scrap copper, the domestic copper inventory is not expected to accumulate significantly during the copper price increase [27].