Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increased positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, copper mine supply is tightened due to mine shutdowns, and domestic smelting capacity may converge. On the demand side, supported by the traditional peak season and policies, the industry's overall outlook is positive. In terms of inventory, with positive consumption expectations and the development of power and new energy industries, refined copper demand may increase significantly, and the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decline. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with expanding red bars. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a bullish bias and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 86,750 yuan/ton, up 3,640 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,864 dollars/ton, up 195 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 221,715 lots, up 7,856 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 6,648 lots, up 1,387 lots. LME copper inventory is 139,200 tons, down 225 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 95,034 tons, down 3,745 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 8,125 tons, down 175 tons; the warrants of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 29,703 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,740 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,915 yuan/ton, up 2,815 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 54 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,010 yuan/ton, down 1,140 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 29.52 dollars/ton, up 7.21 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,200 yuan/metal ton, up 2,860 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,900 yuan/metal ton, up 2,860 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 57,040 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 70,550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,795.76 billion yuan, up 480.79 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.52%, up 5.97 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.36%, up 3.95 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 24.79%, up 0.0346 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.48, up 0.1057 [2] Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that officials are willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy easing may be appropriate this year, and inflation is expected to remain high in the short term and then gradually fall to 2%. Fed's Logan expects a slight rise in unemployment and advocates caution in interest - rate cuts; Goolsbee warns against premature rate cuts. S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook and may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points per week. It is expected that there will be two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of this year and another 50 - basis - point easing in 2026. China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out pilot projects on new consumption models and improve the international consumption environment, with central financial subsidies for pilot cities for two years. Many new - energy vehicle companies released September delivery data, with some achieving high - growth or record - high results. The International Copper Study Group predicts a 178,000 - ton surplus in global refined copper in 2025 and a 150,000 - ton shortage in 2026. It expects global copper mine output to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, and global refined copper output to grow by about 3.4% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 copper price forecast from $10,000/ton to $10,500/ton, maintains the 2027 forecast at $10,750/ton, and expects copper prices to stay at $10,000/ton for the rest of 2025 [2]

Market Overview - On October 9, the A-share market opened strongly after the holiday, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.32% to close at 3933.97 points, marking the highest level since August 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 13725.56 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.73% to 3261.82 points, both reaching new highs since February 2022 [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has been the standout performer in the A-share market, with a year-to-date increase of 77.56%, outperforming hardware equipment (59.07%) and semiconductors (58.74%) [2] - On October 9, the non-ferrous metals, hardware equipment, and semiconductor stocks saw significant gains, with the non-ferrous metals sector rising by 6.67% [6] Notable Stocks - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, such as Western Superconducting (688122.SH), Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), hit the daily limit up [6] - Gold stocks also performed well, with companies like Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Zhongjin Gold (600589.SH) reaching historical highs [6] Global Influences - International gold prices surged past $4000 per ounce, contributing to the rise in domestic gold prices, which reached 1160 yuan per gram [6] - The recent increase in prices for various non-ferrous metals, including copper, tin, cobalt, zinc, and aluminum, was noted during the holiday period [7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict a "shaking upward" trend for the market in October, with expectations of continued inflow of capital and a stable upward trajectory for indices [8] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to influence market sentiment positively, while the third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show a rebound in profitability across most sectors [8][9]

Report Title - "Industrial Macroeconomics Favors Copper Prices, Focus on Domestic Policies - October Copper Monthly Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, copper prices showed a strong trend with a monthly increase of 4.96%. As of September 30, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 83,350 yuan/ton. With potential domestic policies in October and current mine - end disturbances and macro - level positives, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly [5]. - Technically, the operating center of Shanghai copper has been continuously rising, with a short - term operating range of 81,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton and a potential upward breakthrough trend [83]. - Considering macro and fundamental factors, copper prices are expected to remain high in October, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [89][90]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, Shanghai copper prices were strong. At the beginning of the month, the domestic macro - environment was warm, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut due to the cooling of the US employment market and in - line CPI boosted copper prices. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, copper prices slightly corrected. Supply disruptions from the Freeport Indonesia mining area and shortages in copper concentrates, along with reduced refined copper production in September and low inventories, supported copper prices [5]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomics - In the US, the August CPI showed a slight increase, and inflation pressure remained. The slowdown in employment led the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The September non - farm data has not been released, and the ADP employment data declined, indicating a weak employment market [9][12]. - The US manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service industry was stagnant. The US dollar index weakened due to the interest rate cut, and Treasury yields rose significantly [14]. Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, the CPI turned negative in August, and the PPI showed improvement. The social financing scale increased year - on - year, and local government special bond issuance was front - loaded in 2025 [16]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI improved, and the overall economy maintained an expansion trend. Fixed - asset investment and industrial added - value showed certain growth [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine - end Supply - From January to July, the global copper concentrate production was stable, but the Freeport Indonesia mining area's accident disrupted supply, and the fourth - quarter production and sales of the Grasberg mine are expected to decline significantly. Domestic copper concentrate port inventories are at a low level [28]. Smelting End - The copper concentrate spot smelting fee (TC) remained at a historical low, and the processing fees for domestic and imported copper also decreased, indicating a tight supply of copper mines [30]. Refined Copper - In September, the production of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month due to smelter maintenance and supply shortages of anode plates. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product, remained strong, offsetting some losses at the smelting end [32]. Import and Export - In August, China's imports of refined copper, unforged copper and copper products, and copper ore all increased year - on - year. The import profit of copper was negative, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly [35]. Scrap Copper - In August, scrap copper imports increased steadily. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened in September, leading to stockpiling by some holders [39]. Processing Links - In August, the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods showed slight changes. The overall downstream operating rate was weak, but the copper foil operating rate increased due to strong downstream demand [41][45]. Terminal Demand - From January to August, investment in power projects was stable, and the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power increased significantly [49]. - The real estate market was still at the bottoming stage in August, with a decline in completion and new construction areas. Attention should be paid to potential real - estate policies after the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [52][55]. - In August, the production of new - energy vehicles increased significantly, and policies continued to support high - level production and sales [56]. - In August, the production of household appliances showed resilience, and it is expected to maintain this trend under the influence of policies [58]. Inventory - As of October 3, SHFE copper inventories increased but remained at a low level. As of September 29, domestic social copper inventories increased month - on - month but were still near the annual low [62]. - As of September 30, COMEX copper inventories increased, LME copper inventories decreased slightly, and global visible copper inventories increased [67]. Premiums and Discounts - In September, the domestic spot premium of copper weakened, and the LME 0 - 3 discount narrowed [73]. Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of September 30, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly, and the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased [75]. 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper has been rising, with a short - term operating range of 81,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton and a potential upward breakthrough [83]. 5. Outlook - Macroeconomic factors: The Fed's interest rate cut in September boosted copper prices. The US employment situation is not optimistic, and there may be more interest rate cuts. China's economic data has slowed down, and counter - cyclical policies are expected to be strengthened [89]. - Fundamental factors: The supply of copper mines has been disrupted, and although the supply pressure is not obvious due to imports, terminal consumption is weak. Inventories are at a low level, which supports copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain high in October [90].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly ahead of the National Day holiday, with expectations for continued volatility post-holiday due to supply constraints and macroeconomic factors [1][2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tight, primarily due to disruptions at major mines like Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has declared force majeure, exacerbating supply issues [1][3][4]. - In September, the average price of 1 copper in China was 80,775 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.11% increase from August and a 7.99% year-on-year rise [2]. - The production of refined copper in China is expected to decline further due to ongoing maintenance at smelters and tight supply of anode plates [4]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The Shanghai copper futures market saw a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a high of 83,820 yuan/ton, marking a 3.4% rise since September 25 [2][4]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price also hit a 16-month high, reaching $10,800/ton, with a cumulative increase of over 3% during the National Day holiday [2][3]. Investment Implications - Companies with their own mining resources and strong cost control are expected to benefit the most from rising copper prices, while those reliant on purchased raw materials may face margin pressures [7][9]. - The financial attributes of copper are becoming more pronounced, with increased speculative buying following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, reminiscent of inflationary periods in the 1970s [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to exhibit a strong oscillating pattern in the fourth quarter, with the main contract expected to trade between 79,000 and 85,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are likely to support copper demand, particularly in sectors like electric grids and new energy vehicles [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly before the National Day holiday, with expectations for continued volatility post-holiday due to supply constraints and macroeconomic factors [1][2][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - On September 30, copper futures reached a new high of 83,820 yuan/ton, marking the highest level since May 31 of the previous year [1]. - The average price of 1 copper in September was 80,775 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.11% and a year-on-year increase of 7.99% [2]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price hit a 16-month high of $10,800/ton on October 6, with a cumulative increase of over 3% during the National Day holiday [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global copper supply is under pressure, particularly due to disruptions at major mines like Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has declared force majeure [1][3]. - The processing fees for copper concentrate have dropped significantly, indicating that smelters are facing financial strain, which may lead to reduced refined copper output [3][4]. - China's electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% month-on-month, with further declines expected in October [4]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper remains resilient, supported by traditional consumption peaks in the "golden September and silver October" period, alongside government policies promoting investment in infrastructure and renewable energy [4][10]. - The financial attributes of copper have become more pronounced, with speculative buying increasing following the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [5][6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to exhibit a strong oscillating pattern in the fourth quarter, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 79,000 and 85,000 yuan/ton [10]. - There is a potential for a price correction if downstream demand does not keep pace with high prices, which could create buying opportunities [8][10]. Group 5: Impact on Industry Players - Companies with their own mining resources and strong cost control are likely to benefit the most from rising copper prices, while those reliant on purchased raw materials may face margin pressures [7][10]. - Downstream industries, such as home appliances and automotive, are advised to use copper futures and options to hedge against rising costs [10][11].

Report Summary of the Metal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price may rise in the short - term due to mine - end disturbances, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. The price center may gradually increase. The main price range to watch is 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. The spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro environment is relatively warm, and the price is supported by peak - season demand and inventory inflection points, with the main contract expected to oscillate between 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract's operating range between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, supported by cost and pre - holiday stocking but restricted by weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, and the price may be driven up in the short - term by the macro environment but lacks upward momentum from the fundamentals. The main price range is 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is stable, and there are more disturbances at the mine end, with cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. The raw material price provides cost support, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized, and inventory de - stocking is under pressure [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton, supported by strong peak - season demand [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at - 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% compared to the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a slight increase [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20900 yuan/ton. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% compared to the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 21630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts decreased by 15 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 271400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The LME 0 - 3 premium remained unchanged at - 50 dollars/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In August, the tin ore import was 10267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 15390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 122000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 decreased to - 187 dollars/ton [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, an increase of 1.26% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 17536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) dropped to 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% compared to the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 100 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the demand was 104023 tons, an increase of 8.25% [16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic copper smelting enterprise with a robust profit model and a significant asset injection from its major shareholder [3]. - The company has a well-structured mining segment, with the main asset being the Pulang Copper Mine, which has a stable annual copper production of 35,000 to 40,000 tons [3]. - The company is set to enhance its resource reserves and industrial layout through the acquisition of a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining, which will increase its copper production capacity significantly [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in copper prices and has a strong profit outlook for the coming years [3]. Company Overview - Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. is a state-owned enterprise established in 1958, originally part of China's first five-year plan [11]. - The company is the only publicly listed platform for the copper segment under the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco) [16]. - The company has a total copper smelting capacity of 140,000 tons, ranking third in China, with significant production facilities located in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian [60]. Business Analysis - The company has a complete industrial chain in copper and related non-ferrous metals, including exploration, mining, and smelting [17]. - The main revenue source is from cathode copper, followed by by-products such as sulfuric acid and precious metals [17]. - The company has a total copper resource reserve of 470,000 tons, with the Pulang Copper Mine accounting for 60% of this reserve [3][24]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 201.8 billion, 209 billion, and 209 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.297 billion, 2.412 billion, and 3.912 billion yuan [3]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.15, 0.99, and 1.61 yuan, respectively [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a reasonable valuation range of 18.4 to 20.7 yuan per share, indicating a potential premium of 15% to 29% over the current market value [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper price cost support logic remains due to tight supply of copper concentrates and a decline in raw material imports. Domestic copper production is expected to maintain a slight growth trend due to tight raw material supply. The copper industry outlook has improved, and the downstream copper product start - up situation will significantly recover. The refined copper demand may increase significantly, and the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decrease. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low levels with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 82,370 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,266 dollars/ton, up 84.5 dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The open interest of the main Shanghai copper contract was 213,792 lots, down 15,258 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 15,120 lots, down 8,410 lots. The LME copper inventory was 144,400 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 98,779 tons, down 7,035 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 9,875 tons, down 450 tons; the SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 25,603 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper was 82,210 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper was 82,315 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 160 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 spread was - 38.91 dollars/ton, down 7.36 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 72,580 yuan/metal ton, down 280 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 73,280 yuan/metal ton, down 280 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee in the north was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 56,840 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 70,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative value of power grid infrastructure investment was 3,796 billion yuan, up 481.03 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2]. Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.37%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.25%, unchanged. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 21.64%, down 0.0141. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.42, down 0.0104 [2]. Industry News - Eight departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metals industry from 2025 to 2026, an average annual growth of about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals, and positive progress in the development of domestic resources such as copper, aluminum, and lithium, with the output of recycled metals exceeding 20 million tons. In July, due to US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, remaining at a high level. The US core PCE price index in August met expectations. The actual consumer spending in August increased for the third consecutive month, exceeding expectations. From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and in August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a decline in the previous month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is bullish on copper (CU) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - level Fed restarted interest rate cuts, improving market liquidity, which is positive for copper prices. The global copper mine supply is tight, and the copper price center of gravity is expected to move up further. However, the terminal demand in the fourth quarter may be weaker than in previous years, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [134][135] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Industry Chain Market Trend Review - In the third quarter, copper prices fluctuated widely with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. In July, copper prices were affected by US tariff policies; in August, they were influenced by the weak US job market and expectations of Fed rate cuts; in September, they were boosted by expectations of Fed rate cuts, supply - side disturbances, and policy changes in domestic renewable resources [7][8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Part 3.2.1 Domestic Economy - China's economic operation faces challenges. In August, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained in the contraction range. Export growth slowed due to global trade frictions, and import growth declined. Credit data in August was lower than expected but improved seasonally compared to July. Economic indicators such as industrial added - value, investment, and consumption continued to decline year - on - year. It is expected that the window for increasing pro - growth policies will open in the fourth quarter [10][13][14][15] 3.2.2 Fed Restarted Interest Rate Cuts - On September 18, the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and is expected to cut rates by another 50bp this year. The Fed's economic outlook shows an upward adjustment of GDP growth expectations and relatively stable inflation and unemployment expectations [19][20] 3.2.3 US Job Market and Inflation - The US job market is weak. In August, non - farm payrolls increased less than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. Inflation is relatively stable, with CPI and PCE showing small increases, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is less than expected [27][34][36] 3.2.4 US Economic Resilience - Although the US job market is weak and consumer confidence has declined, retail sales, service PMI, and GDP performance have exceeded expectations, indicating that the US economy still has resilience [40][41][43] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream Raw Materials - Tight Supply at the Mine End - From January to July 2025, global and Chinese copper mine production increased year - on - year, but many major copper mines had production cuts or disruptions this year. Copper mine imports in China increased from January to August, but port inventories remained low, and processing fees remained at a low level of - 40 US dollars/ton [51][52][59] 3.3.2 Mid - stream Smelting - Copper ore processing fees have been at a low level, causing losses for smelters using spot copper ore. However, the increase in sulfuric acid prices has helped smelters using long - term contracts to be close to the break - even point. China's refined copper production has remained high, but it is expected to decline in September due to policy changes in renewable resources. The import window for refined copper has opened, and imports are expected to increase. The supply of scrap copper has become tight due to policy disturbances [62][69][74] 3.3.3 Downstream Copper Consumption - China's copper consumption accounts for about 50% of the global total. In August, the operating rate of downstream copper product enterprises recovered seasonally but with limited amplitude. In terms of terminal demand, power grid investment and new - energy vehicle production maintained high growth rates, while the real estate market continued to cool down, air - conditioner production growth slowed, and the growth rate of new installations in the photovoltaic and wind - power sectors declined significantly. Global copper inventories increased, and the spot premium and price spreads of copper showed certain trends in the third quarter [85][91][109] 3.4 Conclusion and Outlook - The macro - level Fed rate cuts are expected to improve liquidity, and the tight supply of copper mines will support copper prices. However, terminal demand in the fourth quarter may be weak, and supply and demand will remain in a weak pattern. The copper price center of gravity is expected to move up further [134][135]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and in the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise. Pay attention to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading and the marginal changes in the demand side. The main contract is supported at 81000 - 81500 [1]. Aluminum - The short - term alumina spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract running in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - The supply - relaxation logic has spread from the zinc - mine end to the zinc - ingot end. The zinc price will continue to be under pressure, but the impact of interest - rate cuts on the macro - trading logic needs to be noted [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price is expected to weaken; if the supply recovery is poor, the tin price will continue to oscillate at a high level, in the range of 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price will maintain an interval oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 125000 [15]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless - steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium - carbonate price will oscillate and sort out, with the main - contract price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous value. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. SMM wet - process copper was at 82385 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2905 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 1460 yuan/ton, down 4.58% [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The LME 0 - 3 premium was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7.14% [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 470 yuan/ton, down 20.51% from the previous value [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin - ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% from the previous value; the SMM refined - tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price was 855 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined - nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 51 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [19]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium - carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [19].