1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The raw material supply of copper concentrate remains tight, and the high price of copper ore still supports the cost of refined copper. The supply of refined copper may converge due to the tight supply of copper ore and the concentrated maintenance of some smelters. The downstream demand is still weak as the downstream开工率 only slightly rebounds after the decline in October, and the downstream is cautious due to high copper prices. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,893.50 dollars/ton, up 75.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 204,728 hands, up 5,146 hands. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 22,921 hands, up 4,551 hands. The LME copper inventory is 156,575 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 5,625 tons, up 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 39,825 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,655 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,745 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 31.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 65 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 9.52 dollars/ton, down 15.36 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,990 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,690 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.36%, down 2.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.38%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.69%, down 0.0045; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, down 0.0042 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots, covering traditional and emerging fields. The National Data Bureau will support data exchange and trading service system construction. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. From January to October, the cumulative power market trading volume was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of the total social power consumption. In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles, with Tesla's new car registrations down 48%, BYD's up 195%, SAIC Group up 56%, and Toyota down 10.8%. A Fed governor said the current monetary policy hinders economic development and the US economy needs significant interest rate cuts. In September, the US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, the core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, and retail sales rose 0.2% month - on - month but significantly slowed down. The China - US presidential call was initiated by the US side with a positive atmosphere [2].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is entering a strong cycle driven by "supply hard constraints" and "new demand momentum," with optimistic long-term prospects for copper prices due to structural supply shortages and robust demand from AI and energy revolutions [1]. Group 1: Supply Side Analysis - The copper mine output interference rate is increasing, and long-term exploration spending is insufficient, leading to a structural supply shortage in copper [2]. - In 2025, global copper mine supply interference is expected to rise significantly due to production adjustments at projects like Grasberg, Kakula, Batu Hijau, and QB2, resulting in downward revisions of copper mine output [2]. - The limited number of large projects under construction and a decrease in capital expenditure will likely lead to stable or declining copper concentrate production, further reducing global copper supply [2]. Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - Traditional demand for copper remains stable, supported by domestic grid investments and high growth in emerging markets, maintaining over 70% of total demand [3]. - New demand from AI computing power and the energy revolution is expected to structurally improve copper demand, with its share of overall demand projected to increase from 16% to 22% by 2030 [3]. - Even with optimistic supply scenarios, the copper market is expected to remain in a tight balance, with a supply-demand gap continuing into 2026, leading to potential price increases [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Price Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and liquidity easing are expected to drive copper prices higher, despite short-term pressures from liquidity constraints [4]. - In 2026, under a favorable macro environment, copper prices are projected to reach $13,000 per ton on the LME and exceed ¥100,000 per ton in Shanghai, with a long-term bullish outlook as supply decreases [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large, but considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [3]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure has eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85,500 - 86,800 [9]. Nickel - The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, the price may fluctuate and recover due to upstream production cuts and low valuations. The medium - term supply surplus still restricts the upside potential. The main contract reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, the cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 12,200 - 12,600 [15][16]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [18]. Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is a pressure for inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 86,000 - 90,000 [20]. Polysilicon - Maintain the expectation of high - level range oscillations. For futures, consider going long around 50,000; for options, hold or close sell put positions, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [22]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices increased by 0.76% and 0.75% respectively. The LME 0 - 3 spread rose by 0.71%. The import loss decreased by 3.21%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. The average SMM refined tin operating rate increased by 53.23% [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 0.46%, social inventory increased by 2.83%, SHEF warrants decreased by 0.37%, and LME inventory remained unchanged [3]. Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices decreased by 0.27%. Some month - to - month spreads decreased. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79%. The operating rates of some primary processing industries changed slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3.58%, and LME inventory increased by 0.21% [7]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper and other copper prices increased slightly. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62%, and imports decreased by 15.61%. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.80%, and some other inventories changed slightly [9]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: Prices of various nickel products increased slightly. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 3.38%, and the import loss increased by 5.36% [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel decreased by 4.84%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased by 3.75% [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92%, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% [13]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some stainless steel products decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [15]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory and SHFE inventory decreased slightly [15]. Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum prices decreased by 0.09%. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39%, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%, imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [17]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.11%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.37% [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained stable in most regions. Some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and that of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% [18]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.44%, and some daily inventories decreased [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various industrial silicon products decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [19]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang. Exports decreased by 35.82% [19]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42%, and social inventory increased by 0.37% [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads decreased significantly [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73%, demand increased by 8.70%, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [20]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90%, downstream inventory decreased by 13.50%, and smelter inventory decreased by 6.03% [20]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: Polysilicon spot prices stabilized with a slight decrease, silicon wafer prices decreased, and component prices increased slightly. The futures price oscillated, and the spread structure was in a backwardation [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 1.12%, and monthly production increased by 3.08%. Imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [22]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.50%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.63%. Polysilicon warrants decreased by 3.07% [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a unified industry - wide investment rating. Instead, it gives specific investment suggestions for different metals: - Copper: Suggests waiting and seeing or trading in a light - position range [3] - Aluminum: Recommends waiting and seeing [3] - Zinc: Advises range trading [3] - Lead: Recommends range trading and being cautious and bearish [3] - Nickel: Suggests cautious short - holding or waiting and seeing [4] - Stainless steel: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Tin: Advises cautious range trading [4] - Industrial silicon: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Polysilicon: Suggests low - buying and high - selling [4] - Lithium carbonate: Recommends exiting and waiting and seeing [4] 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment has a significant impact on metal prices. For example, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy and geopolitical conflicts affect market sentiment. At the same time, the fundamentals of supply and demand also play a crucial role in determining metal prices. Some metals are facing supply - side challenges such as production cuts or disruptions, while others are affected by changes in downstream demand. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Market Analysis 3.1.1 Copper - Price trend: The Shanghai copper main contract continues to show a high - level volatile pattern. In the short term, it will remain at 85,000 - 88,000. The long - term demand outlook is optimistic, but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the pressure brought by changes in the Fed's policy expectations [3]. - Fundamentals: Market consumption has improved recently, and social inventories have declined. The focus has shifted to the long - term contract negotiation of mines. Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production in the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of 2026, which is expected to ease the anxiety about mine - end supply [3]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - Price trend: The price has fallen from a high level. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at the current position. - Fundamentals: The price of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan is stable, while the price of imported bauxite in Guinea has decreased. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has also increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged. Some enterprises have carried out production reduction and technological transformation. The downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased slightly [3]. 3.1.3 Zinc - Price trend: The zinc price has fluctuated weakly in the range of 22,000 - 22,800 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc mines have continued to decline, and there are expectations of production cuts. Terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory is still at a high level [3]. 3.1.4 Lead - Price trend: The Shanghai lead main contract shows a bearish trend and is expected to fluctuate weakly after a rapid decline. The reference range is 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The supply of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the prices of lead concentrate, lead ingots, and waste batteries have all declined. With the completion of the first large - capacity all - solid - state battery production line in China, the market is affected [3]. 3.1.5 Nickel - Price trend: The price has declined widely and is expected to continue to decline. - Fundamentals: The global refined nickel has continued to accumulate inventory. The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has declined, and the pattern of nickel iron surplus continues. The downstream stainless steel is in the off - season, with weak demand and continuous increase in inventory. The price of nickel sulfate has slightly declined, and the demand is weak [4]. 3.1.6 Tin - Price trend: The price shows a high - level volatile pattern and is expected to rise overall. The reference range is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The domestic refined tin production has increased year - on - year, and the import of tin concentrate has increased month - on - month. The export of refined tin in Indonesia has decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve [4]. 3.1.7 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - Price trend: Industrial silicon is at high risk and is recommended to wait and see; polysilicon is recommended for low - buying and high - selling. - Fundamentals: The production of industrial silicon has decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased. The production of organic silicon has increased, and enterprises have reached a price - holding consensus and formulated production - cut measures. The production of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to decline slightly [4]. 3.1.8 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: The price has risen and then fallen, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. - Fundamentals: The supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance. The production in October has increased month - on - month, and the import has also changed. The downstream demand is strong, especially in the energy storage field. However, there are still uncertainties in the mining rights of Yichun mines [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data - The report provides a series of macro - economic data, including the US economic data (such as the New York Fed manufacturing index, durable goods orders, unemployment rate, etc.), euro - zone inflation data, and China's loan market quotation rate (LPR). These data reflect the current economic situation of different regions and have an impact on the metal market [12][15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The valuation of copper is slightly bearish with a neutral bias. The global manufacturing PMI has a neutral driving force, the short - term decline in copper concentrate processing fees is bullish, and the rise in the US dollar index is bearish. Geopolitical factors suppress risk appetite, while copper raw material supply remains tight. Although domestic smelting maintenance is decreasing marginally, downstream operating rates remain strong, and the short - term pressure on inventory accumulation in China is not significant. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The trading range for the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 84,800 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is expected to be between 10,550 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Spot processing fees for copper concentrates declined, and those for blister copper remained flat. Codelco's 2026 CIF South Korea electrolytic copper long - term contract offer increased by 245 US dollars/ton compared to 2025 [11]. - Inventory: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons, with SHFE inventory rising to 111,000 tons, LME inventory to 155,000 tons, and COMEX inventory to 362,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 90 yuan/ton over futures, and the LME Cash/3M premium was 1.1 US dollars/ton [11]. - Imports and Exports: The loss on domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium rebounded. In October 2025, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, with net imports of 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decline of 31.6%. From January to October, cumulative imports were 3.225 million tons, and net imports were 2.676 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [11]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises increased, and spot transactions remained warm. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined further [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Copper prices fluctuated downward. The main SHFE copper contract fell 1.43% for the week, and LME copper fell 0.63% to 10,778 US dollars/ton [22]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of electrolytic copper and copper products showed different degrees of change, and the price spreads also varied [24]. - Premiums and Discounts: The spot premium of copper in East China was 90 yuan/ton over futures. The LME Cash/3M premium first declined and then rose, reaching 1.1 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss on domestic electrolytic copper spot imports continued to narrow, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) rebounded [27]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot TC for imported copper concentrates declined to - 42.3 US dollars/ton, and the price of sulfuric acid in East China increased, positively boosting copper smelting revenue [35]. - Import - Export Ratio: No specific information on the change trend is provided. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss on copper spot imports narrowed [40]. - Inventory: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, and the decrease came from Guangdong and Jiangsu. The number of copper warehouse receipts decreased by 40 to 49,790 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian warehouses, and European inventory decreased slightly. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts declined [43][46][49]. 4. Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM, China's refined copper output in October 2025 decreased by about 30,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November. According to NBS data, domestic refined copper output in October was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the cumulative output from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [54]. - Import and Export Situation: In October 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.451 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. From January to October, cumulative imports were 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. Unwrought copper and copper products imports were 438,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 2%. Anode copper imports were 55,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons but a year - on - year decline of 8.6%. Refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, with net imports of 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decline of 31.6%. Refined copper exports were 66,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The profit from domestic spot copper feed - processing exports narrowed. Recycled copper imports were 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. From January to October, cumulative imports were 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [57][60][63][69][72]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in October both weakened. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvements in the Eurozone, India, and the UK, and weakening in the US and Japan [79]. - Downstream Industry Output Data: In October, the year - on - year output of automobiles, color TVs, and power generation equipment increased, while that of refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, and AC motors decreased. From January to October, the cumulative output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased, while that of color TVs and freezers decreased [82]. - Real Estate Data: Domestic real estate data in October continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year. The decline in construction remained the same, while the decline in new construction, sales, and completion widened. The National Housing Climate Index continued to decline [85]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: In October, the operating rates of refined copper rod, enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, brass rod, and copper strip enterprises declined, while the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased. It is expected that the operating rates of these enterprises will rebound or increase slightly in November [88][91][94][97]. - Refined - Scrap Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reaching 2,675 yuan/ton on Friday [100]. 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 71,216 to 1,034,950 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the nearby 2512 contract were 249,184 lots (bilateral) [105]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of October 7, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 13.3%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds stabilized as of November 14 [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of accelerating global energy transition and tightening mineral resource constraints, recycled copper has evolved from a supplementary resource to a strategic pillar for ensuring copper resource supply security and supporting green - low - carbon development. It is crucial for filling future supply - demand gaps and achieving sustainable development. In China, recycled copper industry has triple core values: breaking resource bottlenecks, reshaping smelting profitability, and supporting national strategies and industrial stability. The government also provides policy support for its development [35][36][37] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Importance of Recycled Copper - Globally, recycled copper helps alleviate the growing pressure on copper resource supply. By 2040, half of global copper demand will be for clean - energy technologies, and by 2050, total global copper demand is expected to increase by over 50%. However, copper mining faces challenges such as declining ore grades, slow new - mine approvals, and long development cycles. Recycled copper fills the supply - demand gap through resource recycling [7] - In China, recycled copper has become a key strategic fulcrum for breaking industrial dilemmas and ensuring national resource security. Due to factors like resource nationalism in major overseas mineral - producing countries, declining grades of old mines, and delayed new - project launches, global copper supply growth has slowed, and China's high dependence on imported copper concentrates (over 70%) has led to low processing fees and squeezed smelting profits [4][8] 3.2 Global Recycled Copper Situation - Since 2021, as global copper production has risen, the proportion of recycled copper in copper production has also increased, indicating a significant rise in global recycled copper production. The growth rate of global recycled copper production is higher than that of primary copper production, largely due to the increase in China's recycled copper production [12][15] - In the United States, the annual waste - copper generation can cover over 80% of its refined - copper consumption, and its recycled - copper consumption accounts for nearly 50% of refined - copper consumption, thanks to the "urban mine" effect. The high social copper accumulation and large - scale electronic waste generation contribute to this situation [18] 3.3 Domestic Recycled Copper Situation - After the 2020 pandemic, China's copper production increased significantly, benefiting from the transfer of overseas smelting capacity and the continuous rise in domestic recycled copper production. From 2020 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate of recycled copper reached 8.19%. China's proportion of recycled copper in copper production is over 30%, higher than the global average but lower than that of the US [22] - Tight copper - concentrate supply has led to negative copper smelting processing fees (TC), stimulating smelters' demand for recycled copper. In 2024 and 2025, China's electrolytic copper production remained high, with the average monthly output from January to October 2025 exceeding 1.1 million tons, largely due to the supplement of recycled copper [3][25][27] - The development of recycled copper in China can break resource bottlenecks, enhance supply - chain autonomy, reshape smelting profitability, and support national strategies and industrial stability. It also has significant environmental advantages, supporting China's "dual - carbon" goals [31][32][34] 3.4 Summary - Recycled copper has become a strategic pillar for ensuring copper resource supply security and supporting green - low - carbon development. In China, it has triple core values. The government's policy support will make the strategic position of recycled copper more prominent in the future [35][36][37]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美联储降息预期降温，有色板块冲高回落 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-17 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年11月16日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：现实驱动不强，但长期价格上涨逻辑依然明显 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：85000-89000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2025-11 美元/吨 COMEX铜 ...

铜产业链周度报告 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-14 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that global copper consumption showed a mild year-on-year increase of 1% in September, with a 2% increase in consumption outside of China compared to the same period last year [1] - Citigroup forecasts that the year-on-year growth in copper consumption will remain weak in the fourth quarter of this year due to a stronger base in 2024 and sluggish manufacturing activity, which are limiting factors for cyclical copper demand for the remainder of the year [1] - Despite the current weak spot market indicators, Citigroup expects copper prices to continue to outperform recent fundamentals, anticipating favorable factors in 2026, including increased consumption, mining supply constraints, and expected market supply shortages [1] Group 2 - The company highlights three major challenges facing China's copper industry chain: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [1] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [1]