1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the Sino - US trade talks have made new progress, and the two sides have extended the tariff suspension period by 90 days. Due to previous policies falling short of expectations and over - hyped recent expectations, some long - position funds may take early profits. The market focuses on anti - involution in this meeting. If there is more incremental information, the anti - involution hype may continue. After the Dalian Commodity Exchange lowered the trading limit of coking coal on Friday, the coking coal market saw a sharp fall at night, with signs of long - position stampede. Short - term macro uncertainties increase, and the market is likely to experience significant volatility. If long - position investors leave the market on a large scale, coking coal may be weak in the future; if there is a stalemate between long and short positions and the market can oscillate at a high level, coking coal is still expected to reach new highs after the emotional release [4] - In terms of coking coal, the mine - end production recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high, and spot transactions remain at a high level. Mines' inventories are continuously transferred to downstream. Although steel mills' replenishment speed is slower than that of coke enterprises, it has slightly accelerated this week. For coke, the third and fourth rounds of spot price increases are expected to be quickly implemented next week, and the expectation of further price increases remains. Although blast furnace profits have slightly declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and coke demand remains resilient [5] - Based on the recent trends and positions of coking coal, from the 21st to the 22nd, the exit of short - position investors accelerated the market, and from the 23rd to the 25th, long - position investors further pushed up the market. It is possible that the long - position investors who entered the market after the 23rd are new short - term funds and are most likely to be stopped out. Currently, the price has basically returned to the gap area on the 23rd, erasing the gains from last Wednesday to Friday. Recently, the coal - coke market rebounded, and it is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and JM09 lightly and make further decisions after the outcome of the long - short tug - of war becomes clear [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 86.9% (+0.83), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 62.31% (-0.54) [2] - Demand: The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [2] 3.1.2 Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased: The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 2.7844 million tons (-606,300 tons), and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 1.7561 million tons (-159,300 tons) [2] - Downstream inventory increased: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.9951 million tons (+84,100 tons), and the inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 8.4121 million tons (+510,200 tons). Port inventory was 2.9234 million tons (-291,600 tons) [2] 3.1.3 Spot Price and Spread - Spot price: Mongolian 5 coking coal was reported at 1,150 yuan/ton (-93 yuan), and the active contract was reported at 1,120.5 yuan/ton (+20 yuan) [2] - Basis: The basis was +49.5 yuan/ton (-113 yuan), and the September - January spread was -94 yuan/ton (-14.5 yuan) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - Supply: The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [3] - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.81% (-0.08), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons (-21,000 tons) [3] 3.2.2 Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased: The inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 501,200 tons (-54,300 tons) [3] - Downstream inventory increased: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3998 million tons (+9,900 tons), and port inventory was 1.9813 million tons (-9,800 tons) [3] 3.2.3 Spot Price, Spread and Profit - Spot price: The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1,420 yuan/ton (+50 yuan), and the active contract was reported at 1,633 yuan/ton (+24.5 yuan) [3] - Basis: The basis was -106 yuan/ton (+29.26 yuan), and the September - January spread was -57.5 yuan/ton (-15.5 yuan) [3] - Profit: Although blast furnace profits have slightly declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and coke demand remains resilient [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Defensive wait-and-see for stock indices, take profit for treasury bonds [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Temporarily wait-and-see for rebar, oscillate for iron ore and coking coal and coke [1][6] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Range trading or wait-and-see for copper, wait-and-see for aluminum, suggest wait-and-see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][11] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Oscillate for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; wide-range oscillation for polyolefins; short lightly for soda ash [1][21] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate and adjust for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillate strongly for apples and jujubes [1][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide-range oscillation for corn; oscillate strongly for soybean meal and oils [1][38] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures varieties based on current market conditions, including macro events, supply and demand fundamentals, and policy expectations [1][6] - It emphasizes the importance of paying attention to key events such as the Sino-US economic and trade talks, the Politburo meeting, and the Fed's interest rate decision, as well as the impact of these events on the market [6][11] - For each variety, it analyzes the supply and demand situation, cost factors, and market sentiment to predict the future price trend and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Due to the Sino-US economic and trade talks and the Politburo meeting, combined with the high margin trading and the decline in fund holding ratio, the stock indices may oscillate, especially with potential small fluctuations during the intensive disclosure period of mid-year reports in late August [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Monday and the central bank's capital injection improved market sentiment, the market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks." Attention should be paid to whether the important meeting will bring incremental demand-side policies. If demand improves, the bond market may not be overly optimistic [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price rose significantly. The market is trading on the expectation of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively balanced. In the short term, it is expected to enter an oscillating pattern, and investors can wait and see or conduct short-term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures price oscillated strongly. Affected by the macro sentiment, the impact on iron ore is relatively small. The supply is expected to increase in the long term, but the current high profit of steel products and the expectation of the meeting support the price. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is tight locally, and the import is improving. The demand for coke is strong, and the supply and demand structure is tight. The price of coking coal is expected to oscillate, and the price of coke may continue to rise [9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the US copper import tariff policy and the change in domestic demand, the copper price is expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is supported, but the supply of imported ore may increase in the third quarter. The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for aluminum and short on rallies for alumina [12][13] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in excess in the medium and long term, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, it is recommended to conduct range trading, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,200 yuan/ton [14][15] - **Tin**: The production of refined tin is stable, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 245,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Sino-US trade talks and the Fed's interest rate decision, the market's risk aversion sentiment has decreased, but there are still concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to conduct range trading carefully, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 757 - 805 and the SHFE silver 10 contract being 8,700 - 9,500 [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the sustainability of exports is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 09 contract can focus on the range of 5,150 - 5,350 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The spot price is stable and weak, and the near-month contract is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and the 09 contract can focus on the range of 2,500 - 2,700 [24] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. The macro environment is favorable, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the focus on the range of 7,200 - 7,600 [26] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is high, providing cost support. The downstream demand is general, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the focus on the pressure level of 15,000 [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises increases, and the industrial demand is stable. The inventory pattern is neutral, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level of 1,700 - 1,730 and the pressure level of 1,820 - 1,850 [31] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory decreases, and the price may face a certain correction [32][33] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by the macro sentiment and cost factors, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The L2509 contract can focus on the range of 7,200 - 7,500, and the PP2509 contract can focus on the range of 6,900 - 7,200 [34] - **Soda Ash**: After the market sentiment cools down, the futures price of soda ash has fallen back. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the price is overestimated. It is recommended to short lightly [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton production and consumption in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase, and the ending inventory will also increase. The Xinjiang cotton production is expected to be good, and the downstream consumption is light. The futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [36] - **Apples**: The spot market is stable, the inventory of old-season apples is low, and the early-maturing apples are in stable demand. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the high range [36] - **Jujubes**: The jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the growth period, and the second and third crops of flowers have a good fruit set. The supply in the sales area is low, and the price of high-quality products is strong. It is expected that the spot price will be stable and strong in the short term [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the resistance from the breeding side and the entry of secondary fattening limit the decline. In the medium and long term, the supply will gradually increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near-month contracts, and consider the arbitrage strategy of long 05 and short 03 [38][39] - **Eggs**: The short-term supply pressure is weakened by the decline in egg production rate, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the large supply in the medium and long term restricts the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and wait to go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41] - **Corn**: The short-term supply and demand game intensifies, and the spot price has limited upward and downward space. The medium and long-term supply and demand are tightened, but the supply from substitutes limits the increase. It is recommended to be cautious about going long unilaterally in the short term, with the range of 2,250 - 2,350, and consider the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the good weather in the US soybean producing areas and the abundant supply in China suppress the price. In the long term, there is a potential supply gap, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to cautiously go long on the M2509 contract and go long on dips for the M2511 and M2601 contracts [44][45] - **Oils**: The short-term market sentiment is bearish, but the supply and demand of Indonesian palm oil are balanced, and the demand from China and India still exists. The short-term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil can focus on the ranges of 8,000 - 8,200, 8,900 - 9,200, and 9,300 - 9,600 respectively [45][51]

华鑫证券近日发布煤炭行业深度报告：2024年国内原煤产量47.60亿吨，同比+1.3%，增 速较过去五年的复合增速4.36%大幅下降。分区域看，新疆、内蒙古为增供主力，2024年分 别贡献增量0.81亿吨、0.66亿吨，而远期来看，新疆远期规划产能增量0.72亿吨/年，内蒙古 远期新增产能合计1.32亿吨/年，而山西受"三超"整治及资源约束，2024年产量同比-6.9%， 未来供给或仍面临一定脆弱性。 需求偏刚性，电力支撑主要消费、化工需求增量显著 2024年国内煤炭消费总量48.4亿吨，同比+1.7%，电力行业需求占比55%，仍为核心占 比。2024年支撑电力行业动力煤用量同比+2.64%至26.51亿吨；化工用煤需求增长强劲，消 费量同比+13.86%；建材用煤量同比-5.05%，随房地产政策优化降幅有望收窄；冶金行业受 生铁产量下滑拖累，用煤量同比-4.07%；供热及其他行业增速放缓，但仍保持正增长，分别 同比+5.66%、+6.75%。出口需求方面，2024年煤及褐煤出口666万吨，同比+49.1%，呈现增 长趋势。 供需缺口或持续扩大，煤价中枢有望上移 以下为研究报告摘要： 45.89亿吨，3年复合 ...

900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 沙河驿进口主焦 A11，V26，S0.7，G80，Y15，CSR60 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 60.00 160.00 260.00 360.00 460.00 560.00 660.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 普氏中挥发 免责声明 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分 析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资 建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司 授权， ...

Profit Trends - In June, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of -4.3%, an improvement of 4.8 percentage points from May's decline[3] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to June was -1.8%, lower than the -1.1% recorded from January to May[3] Profit Margins and Industry Performance - The profit margin for June was 6.0%, showing a slight recovery from May, while the cumulative profit margin was 5.2%[6] - The automotive industry experienced the most significant profit recovery, benefiting from lower raw material prices and policy support[7] Demand and Inventory Dynamics - Industrial product inventory growth was 3.1% from January to June, indicating a passive destocking phase for enterprises[13] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises in June was 1.6%, reflecting a slight recovery compared to the previous month[13] Future Outlook - Upcoming policies, including the "old-for-new" subsidy program, are expected to stimulate consumption and investment, potentially improving enterprise profits[17] - The "anti-involution" actions in various industries may help restore profit margins by reducing price competition[17] Risks - Uncertainties in trade relations and the effectiveness of policy measures such as "anti-involution" and "old-for-new" initiatives pose risks to profit recovery[18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has slightly improved, and the prices of finished products have risen significantly driven by news, with the profit on the futures market increasing simultaneously. However, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The market still needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price may be adjusted. Attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations and the macro - situation during the important meeting in July [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals. A possible phased high may have emerged, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to enter a stage of high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [13]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has limited upside potential due to supply - demand contradictions [15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3347 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton (3.048%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85034 tons, a net increase of 594 tons. The main contract position was 2.175237 million lots, an increase of 239356 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3503 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton (3.120%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57772 tons, a net decrease of 590 tons. The main contract position was 1.612699 million lots, an increase of 131532 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Market rumors of production restrictions and construction site closures in Beijing and surrounding areas have increased expectations of supply contraction, driving up futures prices. However, the recent price increase has weakened export competitiveness, and export volume has declined this week. Rebar demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil demand has declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The current inventory levels of both are at a five - year low. The overall fundamentals are still weak, and the market needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 798.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.53% (+ 12.00), and the position decreased by 7237 lots to 482200 lots. The weighted position was 987200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.74% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments have continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing and Brazilian shipments slightly decreasing. The daily average pig iron output was 242.23 tons, slightly down from the previous period. Both port inventory and steel mill import ore inventory have slightly increased. The high pig iron output and high port - clearance volume in the off - season support demand, and the supply pressure is not significant, resulting in limited inventory accumulation at ports. The short - term price may be adjusted [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 3.05% at 6212 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 4.62% at 6110 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up prices, but it has deviated from fundamentals. The significant decline in coking coal on the night of July 25 may indicate a phased high. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 4.88% at 9350 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 was 10150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, at par with the futures [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage in the short term. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient effective demand. Short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals, and enterprises are advised to hedge [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1275 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1230 yuan, unchanged. As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight boxes (- 4.69%) from the previous period and a decrease of 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days from the previous period [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has declined due to weakened market sentiment. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate. In the long run, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [15]. - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price was 1300 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7836 million tons, a decrease of 81000 tons (- 4.34%) from last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash was 695100 tons, a decrease of 47100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0885 million tons, a decrease of 33900 tons [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, due to supply - demand contradictions, the upside potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [16].

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 651.0 2.0 8.0 32.0 -199.0 25省终端可用天数 19.6 -0.3 -0.3 -1.3 2.0 秦皇岛5000 586.0 1.0 6.0 37.0 -169.0 25省终端供煤 592.9 5.0 -15.6 -47.1 -29.9 广州港5500 730.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 -185.0 北方港库存 2557.0 -36.0 -155.0 -212.0 60.2 鄂尔多斯5500 430.0 0.0 5.0 25.0 -200.0 北方锚地船舶 96.0 -13.0 -18.0 8.0 15.0 大同5500 505.0 0.0 5.0 40.0 -185.0 北方港调入量 134.3 -2.8 -31.9 -18.7 -23.6 榆林6000 582.0 10.0 20.0 20.0 -244.0 北方港吞吐量 168.5 10.5 0.3 2.7 25.6 榆林6200 610.0 10.0 20.0 20.0 -243.0 CBCFI海运指数 724.4 6.3 -8.4 4 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a general recovery in July, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index, influenced by improved market sentiment and policy catalysts [2] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a volatile upward trend in July, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Composite Index increasing by 7.1% and 6.7% respectively, due to easing overseas disturbances and a recovery in domestic risk appetite [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to reach new highs in the second half of the year, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven dynamics, with potential for a breakout above the 2024 mid-year peak [3] - Focus on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and potential rebound opportunities, particularly in coal, steel, photovoltaic, and building materials, with a rotational rebound characteristic anticipated [3] - Key industries to watch include electronics and machinery, with specific attention to chemical fibers, engineering machinery, military electronics, aerospace equipment, and automation equipment [3] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index has surpassed previous highs and is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - The "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic supportive policies in the context of US-China competition, as well as independent internet technology companies [5] - High dividend and low volatility strategies are also advised, particularly in telecommunications, public utilities, and banking sectors, providing stable income as a foundational investment [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of the coal industry with a "Recommended" investment rating, highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi Coal International, and Datong Energy [7]. Core Insights - The coal industry is expected to undergo a new round of value reassessment due to an expanding supply-demand gap, which is likely to push coal prices upward [7][6]. - Domestic coal production growth is slowing, with significant contributions from Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, while Shanxi faces production declines due to regulatory constraints [3][4]. - The demand for coal remains relatively rigid, primarily driven by the power sector, which accounts for 55% of total coal consumption, alongside strong growth in chemical industry demand [4][6]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic raw coal production is projected to reach 4.76 billion tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, significantly lower than the five-year compound growth rate of 4.36% [3]. - Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are the main contributors to production increases, with expected increments of 8.1 million tons and 6.6 million tons respectively in 2024 [3][32]. - Shanxi's coal production is expected to decline by 6.9% in 2024 due to regulatory measures aimed at controlling overproduction [3][43]. Demand Side Summary - Total coal consumption in China is forecasted to reach 4.84 billion tons in 2024, up 1.7% year-on-year, with the power sector's coal usage increasing by 2.64% to 2.65 billion tons [4][6]. - The chemical sector shows robust growth in coal demand, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%, while the construction materials sector is expected to see a decline of 5.05% [4][6]. - Coal exports are anticipated to rise significantly, with a projected increase of 49.1% year-on-year, reaching 6.66 million tons in 2024 [4]. Supply-Demand Outlook - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen over the next few years, with projected deficits of 0.63 million tons in 2025, 1.50 million tons in 2026, and 2.29 million tons in 2027 [6]. - Coal prices are likely to rise as domestic production growth is constrained by regulatory measures and the dual carbon goals of peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality [6][7]. Company Focus and Profit Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, with China Shenhua rated as "Buy" and others currently un-rated [9].

7月23日至25日，包神铁路集团利用智能监测"天网"等科技手段，通过远程监控系统对重点区域开展机 动性巡视巡查，结合当日报警记录与降水实况，精准锁定关键地段，针对性增加监控设备巡视频次，实 时掌握区域内设备设施运行状态及车辆通行安全。截至7月28日，已累计完成防洪重点地段视频巡查600 余次，降雨时段单日最高轮巡达12次，全力保障汛期设备运行安全稳定。 为组织好汛期煤炭外运工作，国家能源集团负责煤炭销售工作的销售集团第一时间启动应急响应机制， 成立采购专项工作组迅速进驻晋陕蒙核心矿区，紧盯矿区市场动态变化，科学及时调整营销策略，有效 稳定供应商发运计划，一线员工冒雨抢装车抢装船稳供应，抓住间歇性降雨量小的关键窗口期，争分夺 秒组织上煤补库，确保煤炭外运不受影响。7月以来，国家能源集团一体化煤炭出区外运日均超100万 吨，在防洪防汛保供关键时期，有力保障了一体化煤炭资源稳定供应。 集团所属神东煤炭严格执行雨季"三防"预警"叫应""响应"机制，采用"人巡+机巡"相结合的方式，持续 做好重点部位、关键环节、重大风险的动态监测，对乌兰木伦河周边矿井山体护坡、厂区来水、河内排 水等重大隐患进行24小时巡查及时掌握雨情水 ...