Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) reached a new high since June 2024, standing at 117.9 points in December 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 3.2% and a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] - The index has shown a continuous month-on-month recovery for eight consecutive months, reflecting improved market supply and demand, as well as increased confidence among enterprises regarding future market development [1] - The analysis of the index by industry shows significant increases in the non-ferrous price index, an expanded increase in the agricultural product price index, a continued recovery in the mineral price index, a rebound in the black series price index, a slight increase in the chemical price index, and a slight decline in the energy price index [1] Group 2 - In December 2025, among the 50 monitored commodities, 31 (62%) saw price increases while 19 (38%) experienced price declines, with the top three commodities in price increase being lithium carbonate, refined tin, and apples, and the top three in price decline being caustic soda, ethylene glycol, and coking coal [1] - The Vice President of the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation's Commodity Trading Market Circulation Association stated that despite external uncertainties such as global economic recovery pressures and geopolitical tensions, the overall Chinese commodity market remains stable and shows positive trends, highlighting the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, while facing multiple challenges, proactive macroeconomic policies are expected to support the continued recovery of the domestic economy and commodity market, alongside accelerated structural transformation and upgrading of the Chinese economy, which will create new demand for commodities [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Soybean Meal - The pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness continues under the expectation of inventory reduction. The 03 contract is strong but with limited upside, while the 05 contract is weak but with strengthened bottom support due to geopolitical risks [5][8]. 2.2. Oils and Fats - In the short term, the rebound of oils and fats is limited. In the long term, there is a possibility of bottom - touching and rebound, but there are uncertainties and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be more abundant [75][216][217]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of December 31, the East China spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton monthly; the M2605 contract closed at 2749 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton monthly; the basis was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The US soybean price was weak, while the domestic spot price was strong due to customs clearance delays and inventory reduction expectations [8][10]. 3.1.2. Supply End - The global soybean supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly. The 2025/26 global soybean output is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports in 2025/26 are expected to be 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4 million tons. The supply will first tighten and then loosen [8]. 3.1.3. Demand End - The current demand for soybean meal remains high. As of December 26, the national soybean inventory was 6.5444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 605,500 tons (8.41%); the soybean meal inventory of full - sample oil mills was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,100 tons (1.35%) [8]. 3.1.4. Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September it is 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bushel, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit is around 30 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5. Global Soybean Supply - Demand - The global soybean output is expected to be 426 million tons, and the output - consumption difference has shrunk to 690,000 tons [16]. 3.1.6. US Soybean Inventory - Sales Ratio and Export - The US soybean inventory - sales ratio has tightened to 6.74%. As of December 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,199 tons, with 386,010 tons to the Chinese mainland, accounting for 44.36% [26]. 3.1.7. Brazilian Export Sales - As of the latest data, the sales progress of Brazilian MT is 38.42%, lower than 41.09% of the same period last year, but the overall sales progress is good due to the large increase in production [27]. 3.1.8. Sowing Progress in South America - As of December 12, the sowing in the central and northern regions of Brazil was completed, and the sowing progress in the southern Rio Grande do Sul was 92%. The sowing progress in Argentina was 75.5% [37]. 3.1.9. South American Weather - Argentina will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, which is not conducive to soybean growth, while the precipitation in the main Brazilian producing areas is normal, which is beneficial to soybean growth [43]. 3.1.10. US Soybean Planting Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in 25/26 is 1148 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 1000 cents/bushel. The US soybean price has strong bottom support [45]. 3.1.11. Premium Quotes - The Brazilian premium quotes have stabilized recently. As of February, the Brazilian premium quote was 150H cents/bushel. The crushing profit of imported soybeans was a loss of about - 30 yuan/ton [52]. 3.1.12. Import Cost - Based on the US soybean planting cost of 1000 cents/bushel, the US soybean premium of 230 cents/bushel, the exchange rate of 7.1, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.7, the domestic soybean import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal cost from February to March is 3200 yuan/ton, and the Brazilian cost is 2580 yuan/ton [54]. 3.1.13. Ship - Buying Progress - Driven by the import crushing profit, the domestic ship - buying progress is relatively fast. The procurement progress for the January shipment has reached 100%. After January, the domestic arrival may decrease, which may lead to a phased increase in prices [59]. 3.1.14. Soybean Arrival - The domestic soybean arrival will first decrease and then increase. The 2025 - 2026 first - quarter import volume will decline seasonally, which is conducive to inventory reduction, but the soybean auction by CGC will slow down the inventory reduction of soybean meal [61][207]. 3.1.15. Soybean Meal Inventory - The domestic soybean meal inventory reduction is slow. As of December 19, the soybean inventory was 7.22 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 24.86%), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.12 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 17.9%) [207]. 3.2. Oils and Fats 3.2.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of December 31, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 42 yuan/ton to 8584 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract decreased by 178 yuan/ton to 7862 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract decreased by 670 yuan/ton to 9087 yuan/ton. The decline of rapeseed oil was the most significant [77]. 3.2.2. Palm Oil - In the short term, the export of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased, and the production decreased slightly. The ending inventory may increase to over 3 million tons. In the long term, the traditional production - reduction season from January to February 2026 and the pre - Ramadan stocking in India are conducive to inventory reduction [77]. 3.2.3. Soybean Oil - In the short term, the fundamental support is weak. The US soybean export demand is uncertain, and the South American soybean is expected to have a good harvest. However, the current US soybean price is lower than the planting cost, and the US biodiesel policy may limit the downside. In the long term, it will fluctuate widely [77]. 3.2.4. Rapeseed Oil - In the short term, the domestic situation is strong in reality but weak in expectation. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is accelerating reduction. In the long term, the global rapeseed supply is more abundant, and the domestic supply may become more relaxed [77]. 3.2.5. Key Data Tracking: Spreads - The report shows the historical spreads of different oil contracts, such as the 5 - month spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil [84][85][86]. 3.2.6. Key Data Tracking: Warehouse Receipts - As of December 31, the registered warehouse receipts of palm oil were 260 lots, a decrease of 92 lots from the end of last month; the registered warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 28,264 lots, an increase of 28,264 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3297 lots, a decrease of 668 lots [91]. 3.2.7. Palm Oil Supply - Demand in Malaysia - In November 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3%; the export was 1.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.13%; the inventory was 2.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.04%. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly in December [98]. 3.2.8. Palm Oil Supply - Demand in Indonesia - In October 2025, the Indonesian palm oil production increased, the export decreased, and the domestic consumption increased. The ending inventory decreased to 2.33 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will remain low in 2025 [104][105]. 3.2.9. Palm Oil Import in India - In November 2025, the Indian soybean oil import decreased by 10.6% to 370,700 tons, the sunflower oil import decreased by 44.49% to 143,000 tons, the palm oil import increased by 6.34% to 630,500 tons, and the total vegetable oil import decreased by 13.3% to 1.1509 million tons. The inventory decreased. There is a possibility of an increase in imports for pre - Ramadan stocking [119]. 3.2.10. Key Data Tracking of Palm Oil - The report provides high - frequency export and production data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as price data such as the domestic CPO spot price and the average price of fresh fruit bunches [121][122][123]. 3.2.11. Key Data Tracking of Palm Oil (Continued) - It shows the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, palm oil and diesel, and the export tax trend of Indonesian palm oil [127][129][130]. 3.2.12. Soybean Oil Supply - Demand: US Soybean - The estimated US soybean output in 25/26 is 115.75 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.77%). The demand has uncertainties, and the ending inventory and inventory - sales ratio are at the median level in the past five years [140]. 3.2.13. Soybean Oil Supply - Demand: South American Soybean - The market maintains the expectation of a good harvest in South America. The 2025 - January - to - November Brazilian soybean export was 106 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 10.44%), and the January - to - October Argentine soybean export was 9.3 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 126.5%). The total export demand will remain high [149]. 3.2.14. Key Data Tracking of Soybean Oil - The report provides data on the US soybean shipment, net sales, export to China, and the non - commercial net long positions of US soybean and soybean oil [151][153][154]. 3.2.15. Rapeseed Oil Supply - Demand - The estimated global rapeseed output in 25/26 is 92.273 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 7.30%), and the supply is more abundant. The domestic rapeseed import is affected by policies, and the supply may change depending on future policies [180][208]. 3.2.16. Cost: Oilseed Crushing Profit and Import Profit - As of December 31, the near - month Brazilian soybean crushing profit decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 65.5 yuan/ton, the US Gulf soybean crushing profit increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 422.56 yuan/ton, and the Canadian rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 744 yuan/ton. The import profit of Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil increased [192]. 3.2.17. Domestic Palm Oil - In 2025, the domestic palm oil import decreased due to poor import profit. After December, the supply may decrease, which is conducive to inventory reduction. As of December 19, the inventory was 700,000 tons [198]. 3.2.18. Domestic Soybean Oil - In 2025, the domestic soybean import increased, and the soybean oil consumption decreased slightly. The inventory remained high. The seasonal decrease in import from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 is conducive to inventory reduction, but the soybean auction will slow down the process [207]. 3.2.19. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed import is affected by policies. The supply may become more relaxed in the future, depending on policies such as the import of Australian rapeseed and Canadian rapeseed [208]. 3.2.20. Driving Summary - In the short term, the oils and fats will fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, there is a possibility of bottom - touching and rebound, but there are uncertainties [216][217]. 3.2.21. Valuation - The current price of the palm oil 05 contract is at a historical high, while the prices of the soybean oil and rapeseed oil 05 contracts are at a historical low [218].

Core Insights - China has resumed significant purchases of U.S. agricultural products, specifically committing to buy at least 8 million tons of soybeans, signaling a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade relations after a tumultuous period [1][3] - The agreement reached during the trade talks in Kuala Lumpur on October 25-26, 2025, aims to expand agricultural trade and restore soybean imports, which had drastically declined since the trade war began in 2018 [1][3] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The U.S. farmers initially felt relieved after the agreement, but concerns arose when reports indicated that China was not purchasing as much as expected [3] - Following a period of halted purchases, Chinese buyers needed time to adjust their supply chains and were waiting for market stability before making further decisions [3] - The agreement stipulates that China will purchase approximately 25 million tons of soybeans annually over the next three years, with a target of 12 million tons for 2025, of which 8 million tons have already been secured [3][5] Group 2: Political Context - The agricultural trade agreement is seen as a strategic move by the Trump administration to alleviate pressures from the farming community ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [5] - Improving trade relations with China is viewed as a key initiative for demonstrating economic management capabilities and addressing farmer dissatisfaction [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The international soybean market remains volatile, and competition from countries like Brazil and Argentina continues to pose challenges for U.S. soybean exports [7][8] - The future of U.S.-China trade relations, particularly in the soybean sector, is uncertain, as underlying historical tensions and frequent frictions have not been fully resolved [8] - Establishing a more robust trust and understanding between the two nations will be crucial for future trade cooperation beyond mere transaction volumes [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's commodity price index reached 117.9 points in December 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.2% and a year-on-year increase of 6%, marking the highest level since June 2024 and demonstrating improved supply and demand in the commodity market [1][2] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 31 saw price increases in December 2025, with lithium carbonate, refined tin, and apples showing the largest increases of 15.5%, 11.7%, and 8.5% respectively [1] - The non-ferrous metals price index rose significantly by 4.9% month-on-month, while agricultural product prices increased by 2.5% due to seasonal demand and adverse weather conditions affecting storage and transportation [1] Group 2 - The overall trend of China's commodity market in 2025 is stable and improving, showcasing the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy despite external uncertainties such as global economic pressures and geopolitical tensions [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, while challenges remain, proactive macroeconomic policies are expected to support the continued recovery of the domestic economy and commodity market, alongside structural transformation that will create new demand for commodities [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of a green consumption promotion action plan by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments, which includes 20 specific measures across seven areas [1][2] Group 2 - In terms of enriching the supply of green products, the plan encourages the expansion of green food, organic agricultural products, and high-quality goods, as well as the establishment of dedicated sales areas for green agricultural products [1] - The plan promotes green consumption in the automotive sector by supporting the purchase of new energy vehicles and exploring the potential of the used car market and new consumption models such as RV camping and self-driving tours [1] Group 3 - The plan emphasizes the innovation of green consumption models by promoting green supply chains and encouraging the use of environmentally friendly products and packaging [2] - It also calls for increased policy support, including enhanced credit support for green consumption loans and collaboration between financial institutions and trade enterprises [2] - The plan encourages the development of innovative financial products to support green consumption, including insurance and the establishment of a project library for green infrastructure [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have jointly issued a notice to implement green consumption initiatives, aiming to promote a green transformation in economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Green Consumption Initiatives - The notice outlines 20 specific measures across seven areas, focusing on various sectors such as agricultural products, home appliances, and hospitality [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing the supply of green products, including increasing the availability of green agricultural products and promoting green home appliances and automotive consumption [1][2]. Group 2: Green Supply Chain and Consumer Engagement - The notice encourages the development of a green supply chain, including carbon footprint evaluations and the promotion of green procurement and packaging [2]. - It proposes the establishment of a universal green consumption points system that can be used both online and offline, along with the promotion of green product certifications [2]. Group 3: Environmental Optimization and Public Awareness - The notice calls for the optimization of the green consumption environment by promoting energy-saving facilities and prioritizing the use of green electricity [2]. - It highlights the need for public awareness campaigns to advocate for green consumption practices, such as reducing single-use plastics and encouraging the use of reusable items [2]. Group 4: Future Actions - The Ministry of Commerce will collaborate with relevant departments to guide local initiatives for promoting green consumption and to summarize effective practices to further expand green consumption [3].

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - In 2025, the three major U.S. stock indices achieved double-digit gains, marking the third consecutive year of increases, driven by tariff uncertainties and excitement around AI stocks [3][4] - The S&P 500 index rose by 16.39%, the Nasdaq by 20.36%, and the Dow Jones by 12.97% [4] Group 2: Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar index fell by over 9% in 2025, marking the largest annual decline since 2017, influenced by interest rate cuts and trade policy uncertainties under President Trump [5] - The euro appreciated by over 13% against the dollar during the same period [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve agreed to cut interest rates after extensive discussions on economic risks, with expectations of only one more rate cut in the following year [6][7] Group 4: Precious Metals Performance - Gold experienced its largest annual increase in 46 years, rising approximately 64%, while silver surged by about 147%, marking its strongest annual performance ever [8] - Platinum and palladium also saw significant gains, with platinum increasing over 122% and palladium rising more than 75% [8] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - LME copper prices rose by 42%, achieving the largest annual increase in 16 years, driven by supply concerns and a weaker dollar [9] - CBOT soybeans recorded their first annual gain in three years, increasing nearly 4% due to China's return to the U.S. market [10] - Oil prices fell nearly 20%, marking the largest annual decline since 2020, influenced by oversupply expectations and geopolitical tensions [11] Group 6: Agricultural Commodities - ICE cotton futures fell by 6% for the fourth consecutive year due to ample global supply and trade uncertainties [12] - ICE raw sugar prices dropped by 22% in 2025, primarily due to increased production leading to a global supply surplus [13]

Group 1: Overall Market Situation - The performance of overseas markets was strong during the holiday, but the geopolitical situation change on Saturday increased the uncertainty of the post - holiday risk - asset trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of overseas events on the risk appetite of domestic equity assets [1] Group 2: Fixed - Income Market - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, and the premium of US copper persists, so the copper price has further increased. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk, though the trend is expected to remain unchanged [1] Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. But with positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of the expected tight supply of aluminum ingots, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong [1] Alumina - The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the weak industry pressures the price. But the current price is basically near the cost line, so the price is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, the cost center has shifted up, and recent negative factors have basically materialized. Market sentiment is volatile, and the zinc price fluctuates [1] Nickel - The macro sentiment has warmed up. News about Indonesia has further boosted market concerns about nickel - ore supply. The global nickel - inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly recently with increased positions. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policies and macro sentiment. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and excessive chasing of highs should be avoided [1] Stainless Steel - The raw - material nickel - iron price has rebounded, the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production in January has increased. The short - term stainless - steel futures are expected to be strong and volatile. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] Tin - The non - ferrous tin industry association issued an initiative to guide the price back to the normal range, pressuring the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there may be further fermentation of tin supply. After a short - term adjustment, the downside space is limited, and low - buying opportunities near the support level are recommended [1] Group 4: Precious Metals and New Energy Precious Metals - The geopolitical situation is tense, and precious - metal prices are still supported, but the VIX of Shanghai silver is still high, and there may still be short - term games. In the long run, the logic of precious metals remains unchanged. Based on the fact that silver may no longer be undervalued compared with gold, priority should be given to low - buying gold in the future [1] Platinum and Palladium - During the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly, which is expected to boost domestic prices. But in the short term, they may still have high volatility. In the medium - to - long term, there is a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. Platinum can be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted [1] Industrial Silicon - In the northwest, production increases, while in the southwest, it decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December. A capacity storage platform company has been established, and there is a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. Terminal installations increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. Short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] Lithium Carbonate - It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption, and there is a short - term rapid increase. Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Group 5: Steel and Iron - Related Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Iron Ore - The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] Ferrous Metals (General) - There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. In reality, direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure. In expectation, energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may disrupt supply [1] Group 6: Building Materials Glass - The supply and demand are supported, the valuation is low, and there are renewed supply disruptions. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [1] Soda Ash - It follows the trend of glass. The supply and demand are acceptable, the valuation is low, the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and fluctuate [1] Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of spot price cuts has started. After the futures price fell to the level of the fourth - round cut and then rebounded, attention should be paid to whether the futures price can reach a new low during the period from the price - cut announcement to implementation. If the price - cut negative factors cannot drive continuous decline, the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate widely [1] Group 7: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - The MPOB December data is expected to be negative for palm oil, but it will reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the oil price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1] Soybean Oil - It follows the trend of other oils in the short term. Waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1] Rapeseed Oil - Recent news has brought a large rebound to the rapeseed - oil price and the January - May spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent marginal loosening of the fundamentals. A rebound in sentiment is expected to subside, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1] Cotton - There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas, the intention of next year's cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and the peak - season demand from March to April [1] Sugar - Currently, there is a global sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support below is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1] Corn - The progress of grassroots grain sales of corn is relatively fast. Currently, the inventory levels at ports and downstream are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. It is expected that the spot price will remain strong in the short term under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches, and the futures price is expected to have limited回调 and remain strong and fluctuate later [1] Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA report and the manifestation of Brazil's harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported - soybean cargo rights will bring a domestic supply - structure problem, which supports the M03 contract. The M03 - M05 spread is still expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in customs policies, imported - soybean auctions, and targeted policies [1] Pulp - Pulp futures have recently been pulled by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, with large fluctuations. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended, and a January - May reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered for the spread [1] Logs - Log futures have declined due to the decline in overseas quotes and spot prices. The pressure on the 01 contract is large as it approaches the delivery month, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Hogs - The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand and with the unsold weight of slaughtered hogs still remaining, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the conflict between the US and Venezuela. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, there are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand and operation rate have weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production, further intensifying the supply - demand surplus, and the market expectation is weak [1] Fuel Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has sanctioned Venezuelan oil exports [1] Asphalt - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma - Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1] Natural Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the basis is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] BR Rubber - The futures positions have decreased, and the price increase has slowed down. The listing prices of BD/BR have shifted up, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually recovered. Butadiene rubber maintains high - operation and high - inventory operation, and the spot trading has weakened with general order demand [1] PTA - The PX price is strong, and the floating spread has strengthened. The PTA plants generally maintain a high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Polyester pre - holiday stock - building and sales have improved. The new polyester plants' commissioning has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption remains high [1] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - It is reported that two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to shut down next month due to poor efficiency. During the continuous decline of ethylene glycol, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. Currently, the downstream operation rate of polyester remains above 91%, the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations, and the recent overall polyester sales are relatively high [1] Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - The Asian styrene price rebounded briefly after continuous monthly declines, mainly driven by supply - side contraction. Many plants have reduced production or shut down due to maintenance or poor economics. The demand for polymer downstream products such as PS and ABS remains weak. The warming of the commodity - market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] Urea - The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upside space. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1] PE - There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is high, the crude - oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the US - Venezuela conflict [1] PVC - In 2026, there will be less global new production, and the future expectation is optimistic. There will be fewer subsequent maintenance activities, new production capacity will be released, and the supply pressure will increase. The demand has weakened, and orders are poor [1] LPG - The January CP has risen more than expected, providing strong cost - side support for imported gas. The geopolitical conflicts between the US and Venezuela and in the Middle East have intensified, and the short - term risk premium has increased. The EIA weekly C3 inventory has continued to accumulate, and overseas demand has slowed down periodically. Domestic PDH maintains high - operation and deep - loss operation, with only the rigid demand for civil combustion, and there is overseas olefin - blending demand for oil [1] Group 9: Shipping Container Shipping (European Route) - The price increase in December did not meet expectations, the expectation of peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯菜籽油市场分析师张德强 加拿大油菜籽供应依然充足，虽然2025/26年度产量预测数据有所下调，但是依然高于2024/25年度。国 内企业暂停采购加拿大油菜籽，下游市场对国产油菜籽需求量呈现增加趋势，支撑国产油菜籽价格连续 上涨。据卓创资讯统计，2025年12月份国产油菜籽均价在6255元/吨，较11月份相比上涨1.34%，较2024 年12月份相比上涨5.66%。 2026年1月份下游市场油菜籽节前备货启动，需求量存有增加预期。据卓创资讯预计，1月份下游市场国 产油菜籽需求量在378.26万吨左右，较2025年12月份相比增加5.46%。目前南方多数地区油菜籽剩余量 较少，贸易商上货较为困难，随着供应减少而需求增加，预计1月份国产油菜籽价格将继续上涨，均价 在6286元/吨左右。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李铁民 【导语】加拿大农业部9月份报告中调整油菜籽多项数据，2025/26年度加拿大油菜籽产量下调，但是需 求量数据上调。2026年新年伊始，国内油菜籽价格暂时稳定。1月份下游市场节前备货将陆续启动，供 应量减 ...

Group 1: Soybean Meal Market Insights - The futures market saw a decline in soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices, with soybean meal 2605 contract closing at 2749 CNY/ton, down 96 CNY/ton (3.37%) from the previous month [2][14] - In the spot market, soybean meal prices in Tianjin rose to 3110 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton, while prices in Jiangsu and Guangdong also saw increases [2][14] - Brazil's soybean planting progress reached 97.9% as of December 27, 2025, slightly above the five-year average but below last year's level [3][15] Group 2: Domestic Soybean Import and Processing Data - China imported 810.7 million tons of soybeans in November 2025, a decrease of 137.3 million tons from October, but an increase of 95.3 million tons (13.32%) year-on-year [4][15] - Cumulative soybean imports from January to November 2025 reached 10,378.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 668.72 million tons (6.89%) [4][15] - The total soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 906.75 million tons, up 5 million tons (0.55%) from the previous month and up 76.38 million tons (9.20%) year-on-year [4][16] Group 3: Soybean and Meal Inventory Levels - As of December 26, 2025, national soybean inventory stood at 654.44 million tons, down 60.55 million tons (8.41%) month-on-month, but up 64.44 million tons (11.7%) year-on-year [5][16] - The soybean meal inventory increased to 116.75 million tons, up 1.61 million tons (1.35%) from the previous month and up 46.44 million tons (47.19%) year-on-year [5][16] - Major oil mills' soybean meal deliveries reached 408.62 million tons, an increase of 55.9 million tons (15.85%) month-on-month and up 41.51 million tons (11.31%) year-on-year [5][16] Group 4: Corn Market Insights - The corn futures market saw a slight decline, with the 2603 contract closing at 2226 CNY/ton, down 13 CNY/ton (0.58%) [6][18] - In November 2025, corn imports totaled 55.48 million tons, a significant increase of 55.56% month-on-month and 87.50% year-on-year [7][18] - The estimated corn consumption for December 2025 among major processing enterprises is 620 million tons, an increase of 16 million tons from the previous month [7][18] Group 5: Starch Market Insights - In November 2025, corn starch imports were recorded at 274 tons, a decrease of 71.79% month-on-month but an increase of 51.19% year-on-year [8][19] - The total production of corn starch in December 2025 was 139.65 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.4%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [8][19] - The average profit for corn starch products in December showed a decline, with Jilin's average profit at -72 CNY/ton, down 168 CNY/ton month-on-month [8][19]