黑色产业链日报 2026/02/06 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The double - coking futures market maintained a volatile trend this week. Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength during the "Golden March and Silver April". The price has support at the bottom, but the upward momentum needs to be accumulated. The coke market is affected by the cost side of coking coal, with stable capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises and slightly higher capacity utilization of steel mills. The iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. The new round of coke price increase has been postponed and implemented, improving the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [5][35][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Most Tangshan steel mills have basically completed winter storage replenishment, with a small increase in winter storage. The average available days of coke in Tangshan steel mills is about 11 days, 2 days more than the average in early December last year [5] - On February 3, it was reported that some mines in Indonesia suspended spot trading, which attracted high attention. On February 5, the director of the Indonesian Mineral and Coal Department stated that the approval document for the 2026 coal mining work plan had not been officially issued, and the rumored reduction information was invalid [5] - The government work reports of 13 provinces in 2026 mentioned infrastructure - related content. Henan will implement more than 1,000 provincial key projects with an annual investment of 1 trillion yuan; Shaanxi will implement 640 provincial key projects with an investment of over 350 billion yuan [5] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic coking coal supply side has a slight contraction. The inventory reduction of coking coal is not smooth. Independent coking enterprises continue to replenish coking coal inventory, and steel mills slightly replenish raw material inventory. The capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises remains stable, and that of steel mills rises slightly. The iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. The new round of coke price increase has been postponed [5] 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, domestic macro - policies are positive, and the iron - water output is stable, supporting the demand for furnace materials [9] - Bearish factors: The winter storage expectation of steel is not strong, restricting the raw material replenishment space of steel mills. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment rhythm slows down, and the financial market fluctuates sharply with repeated sentiment [9] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply contraction**: As of the week of February 6, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.46%, and the daily average output decreased by 16,200 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.26%, and the daily average output decreased by 4,600 tons. As of January 31, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.07676 million tons, remaining at a high level [11] - **Inventory reduction not smooth**: As of the week of February 6, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.6465 million tons, a decrease of 25,300 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.3446 million tons, an increase of 228,900 tons. The coking coal inventory at ports was 2.7276 million tons, a decrease of 136,200 tons [17] - **Independent coking enterprises replenish inventory**: As of February 6, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 13.0239 million tons, an increase of 676,000 tons. The available days of inventory were 15.51 days, an increase of 0.74 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 827,400 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons [20] - **Steel mills slightly replenish inventory**: As of February 6, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.242 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons. The available days of inventory were 13.12 days, an increase of 0.09 days. The coke inventory was 6.9238 million tons, an increase of 141,900 tons, and the available days were 12.76 days, an increase of 0.22 days [24] - **Capacity utilization**: As of February 6, the capacity utilization of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 631,400 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The capacity utilization of 247 steel enterprises was 86.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%, and the daily average output of coke was 472,400 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons [26] - **Coke consumption**: As of the week of February 6, China's coke consumption was 1.0286 million tons, an increase of 2,700 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons [28] - **Coke price increase**: As of February 6, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, the same as the previous period. Since mid - January, multiple coking enterprises issued price increase letters, originally planned to be implemented on January 19 and postponed to January 30 [30] - **Double - coking basis structure**: The double - coking futures market fluctuated [32] 3.4后市研判 - **Coking coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic coking coal supply side has a slight contraction, the downstream inventory rhythm slows down, and the inventory reduction is not smooth. Independent coking enterprises have been replenishing coking coal inventory for many weeks, but the replenishment intensity weakens as the Spring Festival approaches. The raw material replenishment intensity of steel mills is less than that of independent coking enterprises. Before the festival, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength during the "Golden March and Silver April". The price has support at the bottom, but the upward momentum needs to be accumulated [35] - **Coke**: Recently, the capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises remains stable, and that of steel mills rises slightly. On the demand side, the iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. Since mid - January, multiple coking enterprises issued price increase letters, originally planned to be implemented on January 19 and postponed to January 30. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has improved. The coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises is not large, and the futures market fluctuates with the cost side of coking coal [38]

2月6日，包钢股份大宗交易成交100万股，成交额238万元，占当日总成交额的0.17%，成交价2.38元，较市场收盘价2.38元持平。 | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-02-06 | 包钢股份 | 600010 | 2.38 238 100 | 华泰证券股公有限 公司盐城分公司 | 国泰海通证券股份 有限公司总部 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.65%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have weakened, the fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and steel prices in the off - season continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.43%, and the volume and open interest decreased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, while the demand has weakened, and the fundamentals are weak. The price of hot - rolled coil will still be under pressure and oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the pressure caused by the intensification of the contradiction of weakening demand [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.23%, and the volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakly stable, while the supply pressure still exists. The fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken, and the inventory is rising at a high level. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the price of iron ore is under pressure and runs weakly. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, the global manufacturing PMI was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous 10 - month running trend below 50%. By region, the manufacturing PMI in Africa decreased to 49.6%, that in Europe rose to 50%, that in Asia slightly decreased to 51%, and that in the Americas rose to 51.8% [7]. - In January 2026, the average monthly working hours of China's main construction machinery products were 72.5 hours, a year - on - year increase of 23.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.19%, among which excavators were 62.8 hours. The average monthly start - up rate of main construction machinery products was 48.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.63 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points, among which excavators were 48.6% [8]. - Anglo American raised its iron ore production target for 2026. The total iron ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 15.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5%. The total iron ore sales volume in the fourth quarter was 16.17 million tons, basically flat year - on - year and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12%. The annual iron ore output in 2025 was 60.8 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 2%, and the cumulative annual iron ore sales volume was 61.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. The annual iron ore production guidance target for 2026 was raised to 55 - 59 million tons (previously 54 - 58 million tons). Among them, the output of the Kumba mine is 31 - 33 million tons, and that of the Minas - Rio mine is 24 - 26 million tons [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190, 3,160 and 3,306 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,250, 3,150 and 3,284 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160; the coil - rebar price difference was 60, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030. The price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap were 0, - 10, 0, 0 respectively [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 756 with a change of - 9; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767 with a change of - 1; the sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 8.34 and 23.57 respectively with changes of - 0.01 and - 0.39; the SGX swap price was 100.90 with a change of - 1.60; the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 100.30 with a change of - 1.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,077, with a decline of 0.65%, the highest price was 3,111, the lowest price was 3,074, the trading volume was 723,307, the volume difference was 41,902, the open interest was 1,915,253, and the open interest difference was 67,582 [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,251, with a decline of 0.43%, the highest price was 3,270, the lowest price was 3,250, the trading volume was 276,669, the volume difference was - 7,206, the open interest was 1,484,610, and the open interest difference was - 10,036 [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 760.5, with a decline of 1.23%, the highest price was 772.0, the lowest price was 760.0, the trading volume was 216,259, the volume difference was - 115,477, the open interest was 514,745, and the open interest difference was - 10,368 [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents charts of steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as iron ore inventories in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [16][22]. - It also shows charts of steel mill production, such as the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profitability of 94 independent electric arc - furnace steel mills [31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have seasonally weakened, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is significantly higher than the same lunar period last year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for rebar continues to be seasonally weak, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have both shrunk significantly. Considering that there is no improvement in downstream industries, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change. The relative positive factor is the policy expectation after the holiday. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory has increased again. The production of plate mills has stabilized, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 tons month - on - month, and the overall level remains relatively high, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily transactions have continued to run at a low level. The relative positive factor is that the output of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, which supports the demand for hot - rolled coil. However, attention should be paid to the potential pressure from the intensification of demand - weakening contradictions, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has slightly rebounded. The daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills have both increased this week. However, considering that the profitability of steel mills has not improved and the contradictions in the steel market have accumulated, the demand improvement is limited. At the same time, the arrival volume at domestic ports is weakly stable, but the shipping volume of miners continues to increase, and the overseas supply of iron ore has stabilized and rebounded. Even though the domestic supply of iron ore has seasonally shrunk, the supply pressure remains under the high - inventory situation. The price of iron ore is under pressure and runs weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic, and attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally. Currently, the five major steel products are reducing production, but hot metal production is still increasing. Steel mills are entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode. Steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, with rebar inventory accumulating faster than hot - rolled coil, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than that of the mill inventory. The demand for building materials has declined rapidly due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also decreased due to factors such as a decline in export licenses and the end of the restocking phase in overseas manufacturing. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high steel inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials [7]. - The trading strategies suggest that the steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons). The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The cost of electric arc furnaces has increased, leading to a decline in profits and a significant drop in capacity utilization. Long - process steel mills are still profitable, but the enthusiasm for increasing production is limited [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns. The demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend. The manufacturing PMI in January showed a decline, and the production and sales data of some industries such as automobiles and white goods also showed different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile trend following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of coal mines, hot metal production, downstream demand performance, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, wait and see [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220 yuan (a decrease of 30 yuan), and in Beijing was 3130 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3250 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan), and in Tianjin (Hebei Steel) was 3160 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric arc furnaces in East China was - 234.68 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 70 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan). The long - process steel mills still had profits, but the short - process steel mills' profits were under pressure [32]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **International**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in January reached 52.6, a new high since August 2022. The eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest since September 2024, and the core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Indonesia plans to cut coal production and may impose export tariffs in 2026 [34]. - **Domestic**: In December, the new social financing was 22075 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.64%. The new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan. The investment in fixed assets from January to December 2025 decreased by 3.80% year - on - year, with a significant decline in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment. The real estate market data such as new construction, completion, and sales still showed negative growth, and the willingness of residents to buy houses was insufficient [41]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons) [59][65]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend [68]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4].

Core Insights - The visit by Ni Fengyao, Chairman of Shandong Donghong Group, focused on urban lifeline construction and smart pipeline industry development [1][3] - The collaboration aims to leverage the strengths of both Donghong Group and Jiugang Group in high-end materials and smart manufacturing [5] Group 1: Company Collaboration - The delegation conducted in-depth research on Jiugang Group's industrial resources and project capabilities, analyzing strategic opportunities in the western region [5] - Discussions included industrial cooperation, scientific research collaboration, and market development [3][5] - Donghong Group plans to utilize its research and market advantages in the pipeline industry to align with national strategies and local strengths [5] Group 2: Industry Development - The delegation visited various facilities, including Jiugang Group's high-performance pipeline materials and urban water supply systems [3] - The focus was on understanding production processes, market applications, and the overall planning of urban lifeline safety projects [3] - Jiugang Group is actively promoting transformation and industrial upgrades, particularly in high-end materials and intelligent manufacturing [5] Group 3: Future Initiatives - The city’s development and reform commission, housing and urban-rural development bureau, and investment promotion service center will prioritize project execution and enterprise support [5] - There is a commitment to enhance collaboration with Donghong Group to achieve substantial results in industrial cooperation [5]

资产配置月报 202602 如何衡量黄金的交易拥挤度？ glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 06 日 如何衡量黄金的交易拥挤度？ 大类资产量化观点 风格量化观点 行业配置量化观点 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 叶尔乐 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110059 | | | 邮箱： | yeerle@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 祝子涵 | | 执业证书： S0590525110061 | | | 邮箱： | zhuzihan@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 1 月底黄金价格出现大幅下跌，或是短期利空事件触发与市场自身交易 结构脆弱性共振的结果。下跌的诱因或来自凯文沃什被提名美联储主席候选人， 但黄金长期上涨的根本逻辑未发生改变；前期黄金价格持续上涨，黄金交易拥挤 度处于高位，其脆弱的交易结构在利空消息的刺激下导致了这次大幅下跌。 对于黄金的交易拥挤度，我们可以从其价格乖离率和沪金主力平值 IV 来观察。在 黄金长期上涨逻辑不变的情况 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it emphasizes the need for policy changes to facilitate the transition of high-carbon industries towards net-zero emissions [2][3]. Core Insights - The report challenges the "hard-to-abate" label often used by high-carbon industries like steel and cement, arguing that it lacks scientific basis and is used as an excuse to delay emission reduction actions [2][3]. - It asserts that the main barriers to transformation are not technological but rather policy inertia, lack of determination, and investment obstacles [2][3]. - The report highlights that significant emission reductions are achievable through a "whole system" approach, which reduces reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCUS) technologies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Status of Hard-to-Abate Industries - The report indicates that to limit global warming to 1.5°C, rapid and effective emission reduction measures are required across all industries, including those labeled as "hard-to-abate" [5]. - It notes that the steel and cement industries can achieve substantial emission reductions, with CO2 emissions from steel expected to drop from 2.8 billion tons in 2023 to 224 million tons by 2050, and cement from 2.4 billion tons to 65 million tons [5][8]. Section 2: Emission Reduction Pathways for the Steel Industry - The steel industry, responsible for 7-8% of global emissions, can transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 through the adoption of zero-emission technologies like electric arc furnaces (EAF) and green hydrogen [9][10]. - The report emphasizes that the reliance on CCUS is a delaying tactic and that effective policy interventions are necessary to phase out coal-fired blast furnaces and promote green technologies [10]. Section 3: Emission Reduction Pathways for the Cement Industry - The cement industry, contributing 5-8% of global emissions, is often seen as a difficult sector to decarbonize due to emissions from the clinker production process [12]. - The report advocates for a "whole system" approach that includes demand-side measures and material substitutions to significantly reduce reliance on high-carbon cement [12][13]. Section 4: Policy Implications - The report argues that the "hard-to-abate" label obscures the feasibility of various emission reduction pathways and highlights the importance of strong policy support in facilitating industry transitions [13][16]. - It cites examples from the EU, where robust policy measures have accelerated decarbonization in the steel sector, contrasting with the slower progress in the cement sector due to less stringent policies [13].

资产配置月报 202602 如何衡量黄金的交易拥挤度？ glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 06 日 如何衡量黄金的交易拥挤度？ 大类资产量化观点 风格量化观点 行业配置量化观点 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 叶尔乐 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110059 | | | 邮箱： | yeerle@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 祝子涵 | | 执业证书： S0590525110061 | | | 邮箱： | zhuzihan@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 1 月底黄金价格出现大幅下跌，或是短期利空事件触发与市场自身交易 结构脆弱性共振的结果。下跌的诱因或来自凯文沃什被提名美联储主席候选人， 但黄金长期上涨的根本逻辑未发生改变；前期黄金价格持续上涨，黄金交易拥挤 度处于高位，其脆弱的交易结构在利空消息的刺激下导致了这次大幅下跌。 对于黄金的交易拥挤度，我们可以从其价格乖离率和沪金主力平值 IV 来观察。在 黄金长期上涨逻辑不变的情况 ...

Group 1 - Algeria's steel industry is capable of producing competitive low-emission steel, with export becoming a key objective despite EU import quotas limiting exports [1][2] - Major Algerian steel producers, such as Tosyali Algeria and AQS, are operating at high capacity utilization rates of nearly 97% and 98% respectively, driven by targeted investments and upgraded production processes [1] - Tosyali Algeria is a significant player in the direct reduced iron (DRI) sector, with plans for a second DRI facility to achieve record production by 2025, and is one of the few plants capable of operating on hydrogen [1] Group 2 - The EU is a natural export destination for Algerian steel due to geographic proximity and industrial demand, but strict quota regulations limit export potential [2] - Algerian producers are advocating for an increase in export quotas to meet demand, as current quotas are expected to reach their limits soon [2] - Discussions at the World Economic Forum highlighted the need for the EU to reconsider its quota system, taking into account the carbon footprint of imported steel, which aligns with the European Green Deal [2][3] Group 3 - Algeria positions itself as a green steel producer with advanced technology that meets environmental standards, while the EU faces challenges in balancing protection of its steel industry with climate commitments [3] - Changes in the EU quota system will significantly impact Algeria's ability to export steel to the European market in the long term [3]