投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-08 对等关税延期到期日临近，资金谨慎驱动有 色回落 有⾊观点：对等关税延期到期⽇临近，资⾦谨慎驱动有⾊回落 交易逻辑：美元偏弱势及6月制造业PMI数据改善，这对有色有提振， 但随着美国对等关税延期到期日临近，资金趋于谨慎诱发获利了结， 整体来看，市场情绪从乐观转向谨慎。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐 步季节性趋松，LME金属库存整体偏低，但国内库存去化逐步放缓。 中短期来看，市场关注点重新聚焦美国对等关税，弱美元和低库存对 价格有支撑，但关税不确定性及需求走弱预期压制价格，主要关注结 构性机会，谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸短多机会，中长期来看，基本金属需 求前景仍存在不确定性，可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的 逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：LME挤仓⻛险缓和，铜价⾼位回落。 氧化铝观点：仓单依然低位，氧化铝近⽉⼤涨。 铝观点：累库幅度仍待观察，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：淡季氛围显现，铝合⾦有所回调。 锌观点：供需偏过剩，锌价震荡偏弱。 铅观点：成本⽀撑稳固，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：美国对等关税扰动再起，短期镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈 ...

02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） 【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.7.7 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025.7.4 2025.6.27 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025.7.4 2025.6.27 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2508 | 79730 | 79920 | -190 | -0. 24% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 80425 | 80160 | 265 | 0. 33% | | 铝 | AL2508 | 20635 | 20580 | ככ | 0.27% | 中国:平均价:铝(A00):有色市场 | 20750 | 20940 | -190 | -0. 91% | | 锌 | ZN2508 | 22410 | 22410 | 0 | 0. 00% | 中国:价格:锌锭 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro aspect**: On July 3rd, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with an expected increase of 110,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, expected to be 4.3%. After the release of non - farm data, the probability of a Fed rate cut in July dropped to single - digits [6]. - **Fundamental aspect**: The non - ferrous sector remained relatively strong. Last week, the zinc price fluctuated above 22,000. Processing fees continued to rise, and domestic smelter output was expected to increase. The supply of zinc ore was becoming more abundant cyclically. In 2025, several major zinc mines planned to increase production, driving up the global zinc ore output and strengthening the spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in the mine end was transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelter operating rates increased, and maintenance was postponed. Refined zinc output gradually recovered, and this trend was expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes might drag down the global economic growth rate, and there were concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if new trade agreements were quickly reached and the global economic growth rate remained resilient, there was no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, mainly maintaining the status quo. Whether the demand was estimated optimistically or pessimistically, the zinc supply - demand balance tended to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [6]. - **Strategy aspect**: In the short and medium term, the rebound of the zinc price was mainly driven by the overall sentiment of the sector and commodities, with little change in its own fundamentals. The recent strength of non - ferrous metals was mainly due to regional premiums caused by tariffs, not an indication of the strengthening of the global manufacturing industry. Therefore, the sustainability of the zinc price rebound was expected to be limited, and it was advisable to consider shorting at high prices [6]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc concentrate output**: In April 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history and half of the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters might face operational pressure. However, the long - term contract TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of looser zinc ore supply remained unchanged [8]. - **Zinc concentrate imports and processing fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. The increase in imports boosted the processing fees. As of July 4th, the processing fee for imported zinc ore was reported at $66.25/ton, and that for domestic zinc ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees had been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter profit estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits had been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined zinc output**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc output was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recovered, output was gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined zinc import profit and import volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The refined zinc import window was currently closed [21]. 3.2 Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial consumption of refined zinc**: In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [26]. - **Terminal consumption of refined zinc - Part 1**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction remained weak [28]. - **Terminal consumption of refined zinc - Part 2**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [31]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: As the off - season approached, social inventories of zinc increased slightly [33]. - **Spot premium/discount**: As of July 4th, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $21.64/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium declined [36]. - **Exchange positions**: As of June 27th, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 17,814 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may experience volatile adjustments, with the main contract referring to the range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton. The core drivers of price increase, such as interest - rate cut expectations and the 232 investigation, are showing signs of weakening, and concerns about tariff policies are also pressuring copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 20,800 yuan/ton resistance level [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for aluminum alloy is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract referring to the range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and demand is the main constraining factor [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment provides support, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly [9]. Tin - Short - term tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile, but considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - selling strategy on rallies based on supply - side recovery, inventory, and import data inflection points is recommended [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Although the macro environment has improved trading sentiment, the fundamentals still face pressure [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. First, observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton. The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and there is a contradiction between market sentiment and fundamentals [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 445 yuan/ton to 80,535 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.55%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at 115 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread between 2507 and 2508 contracts increased by 40 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34 million tons or 0.30%. In May, electrolytic copper imports were 253,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons or 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 20,770 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.43%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons or 0.19%. In June, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons or 3.22% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 606,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.66%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.38% [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,410 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.09%. The premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,700 tons or 6.50%. In May, refined zinc imports were 26,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons or 5.36% [7]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 123,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.73%. The price of 1 Sichuan nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton to 124,550 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.65% [9]. Fundamental Data - The production and import volume of refined nickel were both 0, and the month - on - month change was DIV/0! [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 267,300 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.45%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,588 tons or 36.39%. SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 360 tons or 2.37% [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,750 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.39%. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,650 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In April (43 companies), the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,300 tons or 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, with no change [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 62,300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.32%. SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 60,700 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.33% [16]. Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,010 tons or 8.34%. The demand for lithium carbonate in June was 93,815 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145 tons or 0.15% [16].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season due to fundamental inventory accumulation and a decline in scrap substitution, but there is strong support below and a significant drop requires a macro black - swan event with a low probability [1]. - Aluminum supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. Pay attention to demand and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1]. - Zinc short - selling allocation remains unchanged, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued [4]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and there may be a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17200 due to macro influences [7]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long - term [9]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the leading enterprise continues to cut production, and the market expectation has changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long - term if the leading enterprises' operating rates do not significantly decline. In the short - term, supply is expected to continue to be in surplus, causing inventory accumulation and upward pressure on prices [13]. - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [15]. - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term as the fundamentals remain weak [17]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the spot premium decreased by 5, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased by 236, the SHFE inventory increased by 3039, and the SHFE copper warrant decreased by 1796 [1]. - **Market Situation**: This week, copper prices showed an inverted V - shaped trend. Macro data was inconsistent, and the interest - rate cut expectation was unstable. Domestically, inventory accumulated, the off - season led to a decline in the operating rate, and the scrap - refined substitution effect weakened. There is an expectation of medium - level inventory accumulation from July to August [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price increased by 3, and the SHFE aluminum social inventory increased by 0.6 (from 42.2 to 42.8). The SHFE aluminum exchange inventory increased by 342 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. Pay attention to demand and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the spot premium increased by 20, the SHFE zinc social inventory increased by 0.00, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory increased by 1731 [2]. - **Market Situation**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase in July, demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas, domestic social inventory is increasing, and overseas LME inventory has been decreasing since May [4]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the spot premium decreased by 10, the SHFE lead social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE lead exchange inventory increased by 1374 [6]. - **Market Situation**: This week, lead prices rose moderately. Supply - side issues include weak scrap battery supply and tight TC. Demand - side battery inventory is high, and there is a trading expectation for the peak season. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the spot import gain decreased by 116.47, the spot export gain increased by 216.84, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 55 [8]. - **Market Situation**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long - term [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 30, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 70, and the number of warrants decreased by 153 [13]. - **Market Situation**: The leading enterprise continued to cut production, and the market expectation has changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. It is expected to oscillate if the leading enterprise continues to cut production [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 200, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 200, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 1844 [13]. - **Market Situation**: This week, lithium carbonate prices rose due to the "anti - involution" policy. There was overall inventory accumulation this week. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly if the leading enterprises' operating rates do not significantly decline [13]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the 1.5% Philippine nickel ore price decreased by 0.5, the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 950, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1158 [15]. - **Market Situation**: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreased slightly. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 201 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 25, and the 430 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [17]. - **Market Situation**: Supply has been partially reduced since late May, demand is mainly for essential needs, costs are stable, and inventory has slightly increased in Xijiao and Foshan. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [17].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tin Company plans to issue a second phase of technology innovation perpetual bonds aimed at professional investors, with a focus on enhancing investor confidence and maintaining shareholder interests through a share buyback program [1][11]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond code is 148747.SZ, and it is referred to as "24锡KY02" [1]. - The bond has a coupon rate of 2.78%, with the company having the option to defer interest payments and extend the bond term by one cycle (3 years) at the end of each period [1][3]. - Interest payments will be made annually on May 28 from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Group 2: Share Buyback Program - The company intends to use its own funds to repurchase part of its A-shares, which will be fully canceled to reduce registered capital [1][11]. - The buyback price will not exceed 21.19 RMB per share, with a total buyback amount between 100 million RMB and 200 million RMB [11]. - The estimated number of shares to be repurchased is approximately 4,719,207, accounting for about 0.57% of the total share capital [11]. Group 3: Meeting Details - The bondholders' meeting is scheduled to take place from July 8 to July 14, 2025, with voting allowed during this period [4][6]. - The meeting will be conducted online, and no registration is required for attendees [6][5]. - The main agenda item is to discuss a proposal not to require the company to repay debts early or provide additional guarantees [5][12].

The Investment Rating of the Reported Industries The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industries. The Core Views of the Report Nickel - The macro - atmosphere boosts the commodity, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel weakens, and the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The short - term nickel price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - Under the current macro - boost, the trading sentiment improves, but the fundamentals still face pressure. The price negotiation range of nickel - iron moves down, the cost support weakens, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are under pressure. The recent supply - demand surplus may intensify. Although the macro - atmosphere is strong, the high inventory restricts the price upside. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, and it is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macro factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the tight supply in non - US regions support the copper price. The short - term price is strong, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is loose, but the demand is weakening. The inventory is at a low level, providing price support. The short - term price rebounds, but the fundamentals remain unchanged. The medium - long - term strategy is to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. The price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is supported by the macro - environment and low inventory but restricted by the off - season. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [19]. Tin - The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound and strong, and the strategy is to short on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [20]. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various nickel products show different trends, such as the 0.41% increase in SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price and the 4.16% decrease in the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [1]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while imports increased by 116.90%. The inventories of SHFE, social, and LME all decreased to varying degrees [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 20.00% [3]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month, imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.73%, and the basis increased by 64.71% [5]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% month - on - month, while demand decreased by 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% [5]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.01%, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper decreased by 17.50% [7]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. The inventories of SHFE and domestic social increased, while the inventory of domestic mainstream ports decreased [7]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.63%, and the import loss increased [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% month - on - month, and the inventories of China's seven - region social zinc ingot increased by 3.65% week - on - week [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [15]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66%, and the social inventory increased by 12.62% week - on - week [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.24%, and the import loss decreased [19]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, alumina production decreased by 0.19%, and the social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.38% week - on - week [19]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged, and the import loss increased by 15.01% [20]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39%, and the social inventory increased by 2.84% [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight LME copper weakened with a 0.58% drop to $9,951.5/ton, SHFE copper main contract fell 0.27% to 80,540 yuan/ton, and spot imports remained in a loss. The better - than - expected US employment data may reduce the possibility of the Fed's early rate cut in July. LME, Comex, and domestic copper inventories all increased. In the off - season, terminal procurement enthusiasm declined. With potential fundamental changes, copper price lacks industrial support for upward movement, but due to Sino - US interaction and domestic anti - involution policy expectations, short - selling enthusiasm is limited, and the copper price may oscillate slightly stronger with limited upside [1]. Aluminum - Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. Alumina faces ore disturbances in the far - month and new production pressure, mainly oscillating in a range. There is a game between the weakening marginal demand of electrolytic aluminum and the effects of low ingot casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeeze. For scrap aluminum, there is still cost support, and for aluminum alloy, continuously focus on the opportunity of rolling long the AD - AL price difference [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 0.86% to $15,355/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.1% to 122,540 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Some nickel ore premiums in the Philippines declined, and the domestic stainless - steel cost support shifted down. There was a certain production cut in the supply side. The short - term price has a certain repair, but the upside is limited, and in the medium - term, the demand restricts the fundamentals, which may still be bearish [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed price changes, macro data, inventory changes, and demand conditions, concluding that the copper price may oscillate slightly stronger with limited upside [1]. - **Aluminum**: Discussed price trends, raw material prices, processing fees, and the market situation of different aluminum products, pointing out the game factors and investment opportunities [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Presented price movements, inventory changes, and the situation of related industries such as nickel ore and stainless steel, and gave short - and medium - term price outlooks [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Showed price changes of different copper products, inventory changes in multiple places, and other indicators such as premiums and import - export profits and losses [4]. - **Lead**: Included price changes of lead products, lead - concentrate prices, processing fees, inventory changes, and premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Displayed price changes of aluminum products, raw - material prices, inventory changes, and premiums [5]. - **Nickel**: Presented price changes of nickel products, nickel - ore prices, inventory changes, and premiums [5]. - **Zinc**: Showed price changes, TC, inventory changes, and premiums of zinc products [6]. - **Tin**: Included price changes, inventory changes, and premiums of tin products [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premiums**: Provided charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads**: Showed charts of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Presented charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displayed charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Included charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profits**: Showed charts of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements introduced [50][51][52].

铜 有色金属小组 有色金属日报 2025-7-4 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国非农数据超预期，隔夜美股继续走强，美元指数回升，铜价震荡下滑，昨日伦铜收跌 0.58%至 9951 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 80540 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存增加 1075 至 94325 吨，注册仓 单量维持低位，注销仓单比例下滑至 33.8%，Cash/3M 升水 87.5 美元/吨。国 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the S232 investigation pending, the US copper market may continue to attract copper from other regions, leading to a tight - balance situation with low inventories and potential squeezes for both SHFE and LME copper. After the investigation results are out, the market narrative may reverse [1] - Aluminum: Supply has a slight increase, and in July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The market is expected to be balanced in terms of supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1] - Zinc: Zinc prices fluctuated upwards this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening seasonally. The short - term strategy is to short zinc on rebounds and hold long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets [2] - Nickel: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and demand is weak. The short - term fundamentals are average, and opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6] - Stainless Steel: Supply has been reduced since late May, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the overall fundamentals are weak, with prices expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] - Lead: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week, which was due to speculation. The supply in July is expected to slightly decrease, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 [8] - Tin: Tin prices fluctuated upwards this week, driven by commodity sentiment. The supply is disturbed, and demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term, and long - positions can be cautiously held [11] - Industrial Silicon: With significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and in the long - term, it will be mainly based on the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises [14] - Lithium Carbonate: Prices increased due to sentiment speculation this week. The supply is expected to be in surplus next week, putting pressure on prices. However, "anti - involution" policies may drive up sentiment [16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market Concerns: There are concerns about the S232 investigation results, and the NYMEX - LME price spread has widened again [1] - Inventory Situation: By May, over 450,000 tons of electrolytic copper were attracted to the US, causing significant drops in LME and domestic inventories [1] - Price Movement: As LME inventory dropped below 100,000 tons and cancelled warrants soared, copper price volatility rebounded, and the LME cash - 3M spread widened [1] Aluminum - Supply and Demand: Supply increased slightly from January to May, and in July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The market is expected to be balanced [1] - Inventory Outlook: In July, supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and attention should be paid to long - term spreads and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage opportunities in a low - inventory situation [1] Zinc - Price Trend: Zinc prices oscillated upwards this week due to high macro - sentiment [2] - Supply Side: Domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and imported TC rose by 10 dollars/dry ton. In July, some smelters will undergo maintenance, but new capacities in the southwest and central regions will be put into production, with an expected increase of over 5,000 tons of zinc ingots [2] - Demand Side: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is also weak. Some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2] - Strategy: The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds and hold long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets [2] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and nickel bean imports increased in May [6] - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has slightly strengthened [6] - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [6] - Opportunity: Attention can be paid to opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have reduced production passively since late May [7] - Demand: Demand is mainly for rigid needs [7] - Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable [7] - Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have slightly increased, and some exchange warrants have expired and been liquidated [7] - Price Outlook: The overall fundamentals are weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] Lead - Price Movement: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week [8] - Supply Side: Scrap battery recycling volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of concentrates has tightened. TC is in a chaotic state [8] - Demand Side: Battery inventory is high, and the operating rate has declined this week. Consumption is weak in the off - season from April to July [8] - Price Forecast: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and if the price remains above 17,200 due to macro factors, there may be a risk of price - support cycles [8] Tin - Price Trend: Tin prices oscillated upwards this week, driven by commodity sentiment [11] - Supply Side: Myanmar's Wa State needs to negotiate for short - term复产, and domestic smelting profits are inverted, with some production cuts in Jiangxi and difficult operations in Yunnan. Overseas supply disturbances have basically subsided [11] - Demand Side: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and the growth rates of terminal electronics and photovoltaics are expected to decline. Domestic inventory oscillates, and overseas consumption continues to drive down LME inventory [11] - Strategy: Long - positions can be cautiously held in the short term, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - Production Changes: Hoshine Silicon Industry in Xinjiang significantly reduced production, while production in Yunnan slightly increased, and Sichuan's production remained stable [14] - Supply - Demand Balance: Due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14] - Long - Term Outlook: In the long - term, prices will be mainly based on the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises, and attention should be paid to cost reduction due to green - electricity subsidies and falling thermal - power prices [14] Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: Prices increased due to sentiment speculation this week [16] - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, with downstream demand remaining weak. Some smelters have cut production, and high - cost capacities are being cleared [16] - Price Outlook: The supply surplus will lead to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices, but "anti - involution" policies may drive up sentiment [16]