Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a strong demand for gold driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, with global investment demand reaching 552 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 170% [1][36] - The easing of U.S. tariff policies has positively impacted copper prices, with a rebound observed due to improved market sentiment and a decrease in global copper inventories [2] - The lithium market is facing cost pressures, leading to a reduction in production rates, while demand remains stable, suggesting a potential stabilization in lithium prices [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In Q1 2025, global gold investment demand surged to 552 tons, with ETF inflows accounting for 226 tons, indicating strong market interest despite a 21% year-on-year decrease in central bank purchases [1][36] Industrial Metals - Copper inventories fell to 582,000 tons, with a reduction of 58,000 tons week-on-week, supporting a price rebound following the easing of tariffs [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of U.S. Federal Reserve policies and domestic production adjustments, with theoretical operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum at 43.835 million tons [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased by 3.1% to 66,000 yuan per ton, while production rates have dropped by 14% to 14,500 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] - The demand for silicon metal remains stable, but high inventory levels are expected to keep prices under pressure [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, with various buy ratings based on projected earnings growth and favorable market conditions [8]

Report Overview - The report is a daily view on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry, covering gold, copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon [2] 1. Precious Metals (Gold) Core View - The Fed's Beige Book's mention of tariff risks suppresses market sentiment, and the rebound of the US dollar index weakens gold's appeal. However, the medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, with central bank gold - buying demand and geopolitical uncertainties supporting gold prices [3] Key Points - **Price Influencing Factors**: Tariff risks and the US dollar index affect short - term gold prices, while central bank demand and geopolitics support long - term prices [3] 2. Copper Core View - The Politburo meeting boosts market confidence. The supply issue has been factored into copper prices, and demand from white - goods and power industries is positive [15] Key Points - **Macro**: The Politburo meeting's statements on monetary and fiscal policies give market confidence [15] - **Fundamentals**: Supply concerns are already reflected in prices, and demand from white - goods and power sectors is promising [15] - **Price Data**: - **Futures**:沪铜主力 at 77,580 yuan/ton, up 0.18%;伦铜3M at 9,360 dollars/ton, down 1% [16] - **Spot**: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 77,565 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [20] 3. Zinc Core View - Domestic zinc ingot inventory is decreasing. Cost support weakens, demand is mixed, and external factors limit price decline [35] Key Points - **Inventory**: SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons week - on - week [35] - **Cost**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, weakening cost support [35] - **Demand**: Galvanizing sector's开工 is up, while die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide开工 is down [35] - **Price Data**:沪锌主力 at 22,520 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [36] 4. Aluminum Core View - For aluminum, Trump's statement on tariffs improves market sentiment, and supply is stable with inventory decline. For alumina, supply and demand have different trends, and inventory affects prices [46] Key Points - **Aluminum**: - **Macro**: Trump's statement on tariffs affects market sentiment [46] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, and inventory is decreasing, but demand may decline after the peak season [46] - **Price Data**:沪铝主力 at 19,935 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [46] - **Alumina**: - **Supply**: Bauxite supply is abundant, and alumina production may increase after some plants resume operations [46] - **Demand**: Little change in demand [46] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is decreasing, but high warehouse receipts limit price rebound [46] 5. Nickel Core View - There is no obvious upward momentum. Nickel product royalties are set to be implemented, and different segments of the nickel industry have various trends [66] Key Points - **Supply**: Nickel ore supply is affected by the end of the rainy season, with high - grade ore remaining tight [66] - **Product Trends**: Nickel iron prices are under pressure, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are relatively stable [66] - **Price Data**:沪镍主连 at 124,690 yuan/ton, down 1% [67] 6. Tin Core View - Tin prices return to fundamentals. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by semiconductor expectations [80] Key Points - **Supply**: Although there are plans for tin mine复产, it is difficult to complete in 1 - 2 weeks [80] - **Demand**: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers slightly due to Sino - US tariff policy expectations [80] - **Price Data**:沪锡主力 at 260,570 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [80] 7. Lithium Carbonate Core View - Overall supply is high despite some producers' cuts. Demand from energy storage projects is weak, and downstream restocking is cautious [91] Key Points - **Supply**: Some small and medium - sized producers cut production, but large producers increase efficiency [91] - **Demand**: Energy storage demand is weak, and downstream restocking is slow [91] - **Price Data**:碳酸锂期货主力 at 66,960 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan [91] 8. Industrial Silicon Core View - Supply in the south is slowly recovering, and prices are at a historical low. High inventory is difficult to deplete due to weak demand [99] Key Points - **Supply**: Southern production is slowly increasing, and a northern plant may undergo maintenance [99] - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and high inventory persists [99] - **Price Data**:华东553 at 9,600 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [100]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [9]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for copper and aluminum prices due to improving downstream demand and inventory depletion [5][7]. - Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend supported by the ongoing interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [9]. - The tin market is anticipated to experience weak price movements due to a lack of short-term catalysts [9]. - Antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, but long-term supply-demand dynamics may support prices [9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a weekly increase of 2.04%, outperforming other sectors [19]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included tungsten (+4.50%), nickel (+3.79%), and aluminum (+3.78%) [19]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,415 per ton, up $283 per ton (3.10%) from April 17 [5]. - SHFE copper closed at ¥77,650 per ton, up ¥1,780 per ton (2.34%) from April 17 [5]. - Domestic copper social inventory decreased significantly, indicating strong demand [6]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices reached ¥20,100 per ton, an increase of ¥210 per ton (1.06%) [7]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12,575 tons, while domestic SHFE inventory also saw a decline [7]. - The operating rate for leading aluminum profile enterprises increased to 59.5% [8]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin prices rose to ¥263,180 per ton, up ¥6,800 per ton (2.65%) [9]. - The market is expected to remain weak due to insufficient demand catalysts [9]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot prices fell to ¥235,500 per ton, down ¥8,000 per ton [9]. - The market activity is low, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Huaxi Youshi [10][12][13].

2025 年 04 月 28 日 下游开工向好以及库存去化，铜铝价格维持较强 走势 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属(申万) | -4.8 | 2.9 | -1.6 | | 沪深 300 | -3.3 | -0.8 | 5.7 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：关税影响 美国经济滞涨风险增大，金价支撑 仍然强劲》2025-04-21 2、《有色金属行业周报：美国通胀 持续走弱，降息预期提升支撑金 价》2025-04-14 3、《有色金属行业周报：电解铝库 存去化叠加下游需求向好，铝价偏 强看待》2025-03-31 美联储票委古尔斯比本周发言对美国经济和未来利率水平做 了点评。古尔斯比表示，短期通胀预期上升，但长期预期未 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - Gold remains in a bull market despite short-term fluctuations due to easing US-China trade tensions and concerns over Federal Reserve independence [9][10]. - Copper prices are stabilizing, presenting opportunities for low-position equity investments, supported by demand and supply-side disruptions [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Research Insights - Gold: The bull market is not over. Short-term price adjustments are normal due to market reactions to US-China trade dynamics and Federal Reserve concerns. The underlying bullish logic for gold remains intact, with expectations of continued inflows of capital in the long term [9]. - Copper: Prices are showing signs of stabilization, with demand supported by increased operating rates and supply disruptions. The report suggests focusing on equity assets for long-term investment [10]. 2. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.59%, outperforming the broader market by 1.03%. Gold led the sector with a 4.58% increase [13]. 3. Metal Prices and Inventory - Basic metals prices generally increased, with SHFE copper rising to 77,640 CNY/ton and LME copper reaching 9,360 USD/ton. The report highlights a decrease in inventories for several metals, indicating a tightening supply [34][39]. - Precious metals saw a decline in gold prices by 0.9% to 3,298 USD/oz, while silver prices increased by 1.7% to 33.01 USD/oz [48].

2025 年 4 月 28 日 行业研究 2025 年 7 月国内空调排产同比增长 14%，线缆企业开工率续创年内新高 ——铜行业周报（20250421-20250425） 要点 本周小结： 7 月国内空调排产同比+14%、线缆企业开工率续创年内新高，看好 宏观预期改善后的铜价上行。截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 77440 元 /吨，环比上周五+1.7%；LME 铜收盘价 9360 美元/吨，环比上周四+1.9%。当 前铜行业处于宏观压制与供需紧张的背离中。（1）宏观：贸易冲突对铜价的情 绪影响已基本反映，但涨幅或仍受制于关税对经济负面预期的压制。（2）供需： 国内线缆企业开工率续创年内新高，7 月空调排产延续高增长，国内延续去库。 铜价有望在国内刺激政策出台以及美国降息后逐步上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-22%，LME 铜库存环比-6%。（1）国内港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 80.2 万吨，环比上周+13.5%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 4 月 18 日，全球三大交易所库存合计 50.7 万吨（近 6 年同期最 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Accumulate" rating [5] Core Views - The gold market is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, while still possessing upward momentum in the medium term. Recent price fluctuations are attributed to easing tariff policies and profit-taking by bullish investors. Concerns about the sustainability of central bank gold purchases are also noted [1][36] - For industrial metals, copper is seeing a recovery in prices due to increased downstream operating rates and a significant drop in inventories. The market sentiment has improved following the easing of tariff tensions, although uncertainties from trade conflicts remain [2] - In the energy metals sector, lithium production is being constrained by cost pressures, leading to a reduction in operational rates. The market is closely monitoring inventory levels for signs of a turning point [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase in prices this week, with specific metals experiencing varied price movements [12][18] - The overall non-ferrous metal index rose by 1.5%, with energy metals up by 2.9% and precious metals down by 2.5% [18] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Downstream operating rates have improved, and global copper inventories have decreased significantly to 641,000 tons, down by 55,000 tons week-on-week. The market anticipates a price recovery due to increased demand and tight supply conditions [2] - **Aluminum**: The easing of U.S. tariff policies is expected to support aluminum prices in the short term, despite an increase in production capacity [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The production of lithium salts is being curtailed due to rising costs, with current production rates at 45%. The market is awaiting a potential inventory turning point [3] - **Silicon Metal**: High inventory levels are limiting price increases, with current social inventory at 602,000 tons. The market remains in a loose supply-demand balance [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [7]

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall rare earth prices have declined due to weak demand expectations stemming from the trade war, while heavy rare earth prices remain stable due to export controls providing price support [1][3] - Copper prices increased by 1.15% to $9,360 per ton on LME, and 1.71% to ¥77,400 per ton on SHFE during the week [2] - Aluminum prices rose by 2.20% to $2,437.50 per ton on LME, and 1.70% to ¥20,000 per ton on SHFE [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - MP Materials, the only rare earth mine in the U.S., has ceased exports of rare earth concentrates to China, which may lead to a further contraction in global praseodymium and neodymium supply, supporting their prices [1][3] - The first quarter copper production of Anglo American Resources fell by 15% year-on-year to 168,900 tons, primarily due to a decline in Chilean output [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 658,000 tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - Gold prices fell by 3.05% to $3,300.20 per ounce, influenced by economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [3] - Lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.9% to ¥70,100 per ton, while lithium hydroxide average price fell by 0.31% to ¥74,100 per ton [5] - Nickel prices on LME increased by 0.9% to $15,880 per ton, supported by rising costs due to new regulations in Indonesia [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in copper prices due to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper prices rising by 2.98% in the US, 2.55% in London, and 1.71% in Shanghai. The report notes that the largest copper mine in Peru, Antamina, has halted operations due to an accident, impacting supply. The copper rod operating rate increased to 79.56%, and social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 22.15% to 181,700 tons [4][3] - Aluminum prices are rising as domestic inventory decreases, with alumina prices stabilizing after maintenance cuts. The report indicates that electrolytic aluminum margins have improved, suggesting a potential shortage in supply this year [4][3] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to demand growth not meeting expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and a downward trend in prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential production cuts and marginal improvements in demand [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic conditions, noting that initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.50% [13] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 2.55% and Shanghai copper up 1.71%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 31.97% [28] 2.2. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose, with London aluminum increasing by 3.25% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.29%. The report notes a rise in aluminum processing margins [37] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - Lead and zinc prices saw increases, with lead prices up 2.72% and zinc prices up 3.48%. The report indicates improved profitability for mining companies [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased, with London tin up 5.04%. Nickel prices also saw slight increases, but profitability for nickel enterprises has narrowed [63] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium prices are declining, with carbonate lithium down 2.31% to 69,800 yuan/ton. The report highlights the need for monitoring supply-side adjustments [79] 3.2. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased, with domestic cobalt prices at 238,000 yuan/ton. The report notes a decline in profitability for domestic smelting plants [89]