1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to increased supply and weak demand, meal products will experience short - term weak fluctuations. The price of US soybeans has returned to a volatile state, and the short - term pressure on meal products remains. Overall, meal products will maintain a range - bound oscillation [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Middle East Situation May Cool Down, and US Soybeans Return to Fluctuation - The Middle East situation is still variable, and the impact on shipping remains to be observed. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, and there are uncertainties about the expansion of the attack scope and the US's island - taking actions [4][7]. - The US bio - fuel policy has been implemented. The production and consumption targets of biodiesel and renewable diesel have increased by over 60% year - on - year. The US government plans to re - allocate 70% of the unfulfilled bio - fuel blending obligations of small refineries to large - scale refineries. The market interprets this as the end of positive news. Affected by rising fertilizer prices, the planting area of new - season US soybeans is expected to increase by 3 - 5 million acres year - on - year. The 2026/27 soybean planting area is expected to be 85 million acres, with a yield of 4.45 billion bushels [8][9]. - South American soybeans are on the market. The annual output of South American soybeans is basically in line with expectations, but Brazilian soybean exports are affected by the Middle East situation [10][11][14]. - There are still variables in Sino - US trade negotiations. China's procurement of US soybeans has basically reached 12 million tons, and the two sides continue to hold consultations on trade relations. Trump's visit to China in early April has been postponed to mid - May, and the final time is still uncertain [18][19]. 3.2 Increased Supply and Weak Demand, Short - Term Pressure on Meal Products Remains - Regarding the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, before the Middle East conflict, the shipping schedule of imported soybeans was planned, and after the conflict, the actual arrival was 4.91 million tons, 1.83 million tons less than expected. The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans has increased by 5 - 10%. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills have slightly declined, the soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the meal inventory has returned to a normal level. Domestic downstream procurement has weakened, and the提货 volume is at a high level in the same period of history [20][24][27]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is basically unaffected. The arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, but the import profit of rapeseed has been squeezed by rising costs. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has increased slightly and remains at a low level in the short term. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the rapeseed meal inventory has increased from a low level [44][46][50]. - The demand for meal products is still in the off - season after the Spring Festival. Pig inventory was high in February, with a decrease in large - pig inventory and an increase in small - pig inventory in March. Pig prices have continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has bottomed out and rebounded. Domestic pig - farming profits have seen an expanded loss [38][40][42]. 3.3 Meal Products Overall Maintain a Range - Bound Oscillation - The increased arrival of imported soybeans and rapeseed exerts pressure on meal product prices. The short - term demand is weak, but the medium - term outlook is positive. The Middle East situation and Sino - US trade relations are still variable, and China has a high degree of dependence on imported soybeans and rapeseed [53]. - The bullish factors for meal products include the digestion of supply - side negatives over time, the gradual recovery of demand from a low level, uncertainties in the Middle East situation and Sino - US trade relations, and a time lag in the appearance of imported inflation. The bearish factors are the high future arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans and the short - term off - season demand in China [55]. - The strategy for meal products: In March, meal products rose and then fell, and in April, they may bottom out and rebound, maintaining a volatile pattern. Soybean meal is stronger than rapeseed meal, and the price difference will widen. For single - side trading, it is advisable to go long when the price of meal products falls. For options, it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options [63].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The overall market is affected by factors such as the Iranian situation, with significant uncertainties and potential for increased volatility [6][9][11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Bond Market - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a full - line increase in treasury bond futures. Given the current relatively low treasury bond yields, a stable economic recovery in China, rising core inflation, and potential for domestic demand policies, the market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day witnessed mixed performance in stock index futures. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, the economy has resilience, the policy environment is favorable, and there is potential for anti - "involution" and domestic demand expansion policies. Due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day saw increases in gold and silver futures. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and central banks' gold purchases, the long - term logic for precious metals remains strong. However, due to significant previous price increases and the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [11]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed sideways movements. The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices sentimentally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are determined by industry supply - demand. Rebar demand is on a decline, but the supply pressure has eased, and inventory pressure is low. Prices may rebound but with limited space. The situation for hot - rolled coil is similar. Investors can look for low - position long - entry opportunities and manage positions carefully [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures showed sideways movements. The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices sentimentally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The daily output of molten iron may continue to rise, which is positive for prices, but the supply is also increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. Prices may rebound in the short term. Investors can look for low - position long - entry opportunities and manage positions carefully [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed sideways movements. The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices sentimentally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, while demand is rising. Coke supply is stable, and demand is expanding. Prices may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for low - position long - entry opportunities and manage positions carefully [18]. Ferroalloys - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The cost of ferroalloys is rising slightly, and production is at a low level, with weak demand and continued surplus pressure. After a short - term price increase, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [20][21]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The situation of the US - Iran negotiation is complex, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely during the negotiation period. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for INE crude oil [22][23][24]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou mostly reported higher prices, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao rose. Future supply pressure is expected to ease, but downstream demand growth is expected to slow, and the market trend is unclear. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [26]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The core contradiction lies in the cost - push and supply - demand game. Cost support is still there but weakening, supply pressure has eased slightly, and demand has recovered. The market is expected to be strongly volatile [28][29][30]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The core contradiction is the game between the increase in synthetic rubber cost and natural rubber substitution demand due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the approaching domestic production season and slow demand recovery. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [31][32]. Chemicals - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The core contradiction is the game between overseas geopolitical conflicts, domestic spring demand, and high inventory. Cost support is strong in the short term, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside is limited by high inventory [33][34][35]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. The core contradiction is the game between high supply and policy - imposed price ceilings. Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downside is limited due to cost support and the approaching demand peak season [36][37]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures rose. PX factories have reduced their loads due to concerns about raw material supply. The short - term PX price may fluctuate widely, and cautious operation is recommended [38][39]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures fell. More PTA plants have restarted, and downstream filament factories have increased their production cuts. The short - term market is in a multi - empty game, and cautious operation is recommended [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, supply from the Persian Gulf may decline, and prices may be more volatile. However, the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and cautious attention is needed [41][42]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Supply has increased, and terminal demand has declined. The short - term market is mainly driven by cost, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, plant operations, and downstream factory resumption [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much, and the processing fee has been continuously repaired. Given the changing Middle East situation, cautious participation is recommended [44][45]. Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. Supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. Cost support is expected to be suppressed by the actual fundamentals, and the price adjustment range is limited. The market is expected to be in a stalemate [46][47]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures rose. The production line is shrinking, inventory removal is slowing down, and cost support is still there. The market sentiment is expected to fluctuate [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. Supply has decreased slightly, and inventory has not been significantly removed. The export price of high - grade caustic soda has risen strongly, and attention should be paid to changes in procurement prices and factory inventory [49][50]. Pulp - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, paper pulp futures rose. Port inventory has increased rapidly, and domestic supply has also increased slightly. Inventory accumulation and weak demand restrict the rebound height [51][52]. Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, copper futures fell. Macro - sentiment fluctuations are the key to short - term price movements. The mine supply is in a tight balance, and the consumption is structurally differentiated. The domestic inventory is in the process of reduction, and the price downside is limited [54][55]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The supply of alumina is tightened, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is affected by geopolitical conflicts. Demand is strong, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise slightly [56][57]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The mining cost provides support, and the demand has recovered slightly, but the real - estate demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and the price rebound space is limited [58][59]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, lead futures rose. The supply of recycled lead is tightened, and the demand for batteries has increased, but the overseas inventory is high, and the domestic demand in the off - season is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [60][61][62]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The geopolitical situation affects the market risk sentiment. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support, but attention should be paid to risk control [63]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The Indonesian policy has changed, and the nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, but the stainless - steel demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in surplus. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [64][65]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the US soybean planting area is awaited. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [66][67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. Indonesia plans to promote the B50 biodiesel project, and the export volume has increased. The inventory is in the middle - high level in the past 7 years. Short - term long - entry can be considered [68][69][70]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures rose. The vegetable oil market is supported by the rising crude oil price. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is decreasing, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is increasing. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [71][72]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures showed sideways movements, and overseas cotton futures rose. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the inventory is in the process of reduction. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance. The long - term cotton price is expected to rise after a decline [73][74][75]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rose and then fell, and overseas sugar futures also showed a similar trend. The overseas sugar price has support due to the Indian production shortfall and the change in Brazilian sugar - making ratio. The domestic sugar supply is sufficient, but the long - term price bottom has risen [76][77]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures showed sideways movements. It is now the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking period, and attention should be paid to the weather during the apple - flowering period. The market is expected to be stable and strong [78]. - **Pig**: The previous trading day, pig futures rose. The northern market is expected to adjust slightly, and the southern market is expected to be in a stalemate. The supply pressure is large, and short - position rolling and light - position holding can be considered [79][80]. - **Egg**: The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg supply has improved, and the supply structure of large and small eggs is differentiated. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [81]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the wheat substitution effect may strengthen. The corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, but the inventory is high. For a significant price increase, attention can be paid to the out - of - the - money put options of the forward contract [82][83]. - **Log**: The previous trading day, log futures rose. The New Zealand log supply may shrink, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. The domestic demand is weak, and the overseas demand is strong. The market is affected by the geopolitical conflict [84][85][86].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints -受地缘政治影响，市场短期不确定性较大，投资者需控制仓位、防控风险 [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX黄金期货涨0.36%，报4540.40美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨0.55%，报70.18美元/盎司；沪金主力合约上涨0.6%，报1011.48元/克；沪银主力合约上涨0.86%，报17679元/千克 [1] Important Information - 3月30日，全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上个交易日减少3.429吨，当前持仓量为1046.133吨；全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust持仓较上日减少121.1吨，当前持仓量为15288.36吨 [1] - 据CME“美联储观察”，美联储4月加息25个基点的概率为2.6%，维持利率不变的概率为97.4%；到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为92.5%，累计加息25个基点的概率为2.5% [1] - 美联储主席鲍威尔讲话称能源冲击通常是短暂的，央行应“耐心等待其自行消退”，政策目前处于有利地位，可等待观察形势发展，私人信贷目前不具备演变为更广泛系统性事件的条件 [1] - 伊朗议会批准对海峡征收通行费，需以伊朗本币支付；以色列海法的炼油厂在导弹袭击中起火，特朗普称回应“很快到来”，正与伊朗进行严肃谈判，若谈判破裂将摧毁伊能源、电力设施和哈尔克岛；伊朗方面称美国要求不合逻辑，不参加巴基斯坦主导的有关战争的会议 [1] Market Logic - 美伊紧张局势持续，特朗普就停火向伊朗发出新威胁，伊方拒绝巴基斯坦斡旋的与美对话；周一国际原油价格继续上涨，NASDAQ指数继续下跌；因鲍威尔讲话偏鸽，美债收益率下行，2年期美债收益率下跌约9个基点收报3.83%；周一美元指数上涨0.33%，收于100.51；周一黄金COMEX和白银均冲高回落，收盘较上周五小幅上涨；近日美国流露出和谈意向，但美伊双方立场差别巨大，未来演变需持续关注 [1] Trading Strategy - 受地缘政治影响，市场短期不确定性较大，投资者注意控制仓位，防控风险 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the Middle - East war situation and military threats from Houthi rebels supported by Iran, the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has risen slightly. With the Middle - East entering the power - generation season in April, more high - sulfur fuel oil will be consumed. Meanwhile, the marine fuel demand in Singapore is stable, and the market supply may be insufficient. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore remains tight, and with geopolitical support, fuel oil prices are operating at a high level. The FU2605 is expected to operate in the range of 4550 - 4700, and the LU2605 in the range of 5150 - 5350 [3]. - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. The risk is a quick cease - fire in the Middle - East [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The price of the FU main contract futures increased from 4439 to 4621, a rise of 182 or 4.10%. The price of the LU main contract futures increased from 5109 to 5380, a rise of 271 or 5.30%. The FU basis decreased from 570 to 535, a decrease of 34.81 or 6.11%. The LU basis decreased from 859 to 620, a decrease of 240 or 28% [5]. - In the spot market, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel remained unchanged at 866.00, while the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel increased from 860.00 to 865.00, a rise of 5.00 or 0.58%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased from 711.79 to 733.43, a rise of 21.64 or 3.04%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel increased from 850.50 to 855.44, a rise of 4.94 or 0.58%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased from 648.82 to 670.49, a rise of 21.67 or 3.34%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 1570.21 to 1724.27, a rise of 154.06 or 9.81% [6]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Middle - East situation turmoil and poor strait passage [4]. - Bearish factors: The Trump administration's TACO reappearance and upstream crude oil under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamental: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has risen slightly due to the Middle - East war situation. The cash spreads of high - sulfur fuel oil and 0.5% sulfur marine fuel both fell to a three - week low in the week ending March 27 [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 535 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 620 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of March 25 was 2659.9 million barrels, an increase of 173 million barrels [3]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3]. - Main positions: The main position of high - sulfur fuel oil is short, with short positions decreasing. The main position of low - sulfur fuel oil is long, with long positions increasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No information provided. 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory data from January 7, 2026, to March 25, 2026, shows the inventory and its changes over time. For example, on January 7, 2026, the inventory was 2270.9 million barrels with an increase of 5 million barrels, and on March 25, 2026, the inventory was 2659.9 million barrels with an increase of 173 million barrels [8].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On March 30, the contracts of the four major index futures in the current month showed mixed trends. IF fell by 0.21%, IH by 0.16%, IC rose by 0.19%, and IM by 0.22% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 4,728 lots, IH by 1,629 lots, IC by 3,084 lots, and IM by 10,930 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 5,068 lots, IH by 427 lots, IC by 6,186 lots, while IM increased by 3,733 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - The A - share market bottomed out and rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.24% at 3,923.29 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 0.05%. The market turnover was 1.93 trillion yuan, compared with 1.86 trillion yuan the previous day [7] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.81% at 24,750.79 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped 1.84%, hitting a new low since early April last year; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.65%. Four new stocks were listed on the same day, with PolarView up 150%, Deshizhang 111%, and Han Tian Tian Cheng up 35%. Southbound funds sold a net of nearly HK$2.5 billion [8] - The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11% to 45,216.14 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.39% to 6,343.72 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.73% to 20,794.64 points [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing price of IF2604 was 4,472.4, down 0.21%, with a basis of - 19.55, a turnover of 36.26 billion yuan, a trading volume of 27,179 lots (up 1,689 lots), and an open interest of 49,894 lots (down 442 lots). Similar data are provided for IF2605, IF2606, and IF2609 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing price of IH2604 was 2,829, down 0.16%, with a basis of - 4.21, a turnover of 1.059 billion yuan, a trading volume of 12,534 lots (up 940 lots), and an open interest of 20,218 lots (down 240 lots). Similar data are provided for IH2605, IH2606, and IH2609 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing price of IC2604 was 7,706.8, up 0.19%, with a basis of - 46.92, a turnover of 5.728 billion yuan, a trading volume of 37,502 lots (down 1,329 lots), and an open interest of 56,827 lots (down 3,413 lots). Similar data are provided for IC2605, IC2606, and IC2609 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing price of IM2604 was 7,695.8, up 0.22%, with a basis of - 72.13, a turnover of 8.387 billion yuan, a trading volume of 55,003 lots (up 2,157 lots), and an open interest of 80,186 lots (down 11 lots). Similar data are provided for IM2605, IM2606, and IM2609 [1] 2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2604 and IF2605, the long - order increase was 341 (not announced for some), and the short - order increase was 698 (not announced for some). For IF2606, the long - order decrease was 2,480, and the short - order decrease was 2,997. For IF2609, the long - order decrease was 733, and the short - order decrease was 895 [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2604, the long - order decrease was 36, and the short - order decrease was 226. For IH2606, the long - order increase was 72, and the short - order increase was 276. For IH2609, the long - order increase was 537, and the short - order increase was 393 [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2604, the long - order decrease was 2,647, and the short - order decrease was 2,430. For IC2606, the long - order decrease was 2,165, and the short - order decrease was 1,504. For IC2609, the long - order decrease was 1,000, and the short - order decrease was 909 [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2604, the long - order increase was 1,257, and the short - order increase was 233. For IM2605, the long - order net change was 1,614, and the short - order net change was 74. For IM2606, the long - order increase was 357, and the short - order decrease was 159 [5] 3. Important Drivers - U.S. President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point cease - fire plan". The U.S. is in serious consultations with Iran to end the military operation in Iran. Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, and possibly all desalination plants if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term. The White House Press Secretary said Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran by April 6 and intends to call on Arab countries to bear the cost of the U.S. military operation against Iran [6] - Iran stated that if its power facilities are attacked, it will cause a power outage in the entire region. The Iranian President said that ending the war will be based on safeguarding national dignity, interests, and security. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Iran has not had any direct negotiations with the U.S. so far, and the so - called "15 - point cease - fire plan" of the U.S. is "excessive and unreasonable" [6] - The Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission passed a bill to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including implementing a financial arrangement and charging system in Iranian rials, banning U.S. and Israeli ships from passing through, and cooperating with Oman to formulate relevant legal frameworks [7] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that in the context of the energy shock caused by the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran, the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignore" the impact. But he also warned that if price increases start to change the public's long - term inflation expectations, the Fed may not be able to stand by [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, geopolitical risks boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals, but the oil fiscal crisis in the Middle East leads to gold selling, and high oil prices cause central bank tightening concerns, weakening the liquidity premium of precious metals and hitting the industrial demand expectations of industrial precious metals. Gold prices will face adjustment pressure until the Middle East oil crisis is completely resolved, and the adjustment range of industrial precious metals is relatively larger. It is recommended to trade gold with an interval operation idea and consider a hedging strategy of going long on gold and short on industrial precious metals while reducing positions and increasing position flexibility [4]. - In the medium - term, affected by factors such as international trade chaos, a gloomy global economic growth outlook, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. It is recommended that investors continue to hold a bullish view while controlling positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals. However, the oil fiscal crisis in the Middle East leads to gold selling, and high oil prices cause central bank tightening concerns, which weaken the liquidity premium of precious metals and hit the industrial demand expectations of industrial precious metals. In March, London gold rebounded to around $4,500 per ounce after adjusting to $4,100 per ounce. Before the Middle East oil crisis is completely resolved, gold prices will face adjustment pressure, and the adjustment range of industrial precious metals is relatively larger. London gold shows support around $3,800 - $4,200 per ounce. It is recommended to trade gold with an interval operation idea and consider a hedging strategy of going long on gold and short on industrial precious metals while reducing positions and increasing position flexibility. This week, pay attention to the Iran war situation, US March employment data, global March PMI data, and the Fed Chairman's speech [4]. - **Medium - term Trends**: After a sharp decline at the end of January due to the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed Chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed a strong sign of stabilizing and rebounding in February. International trade turmoil and Middle East geopolitical risks have increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Affected by multiple factors, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. It is recommended that investors continue to hold a bullish view while controlling positions, and long - hedgers can seize the opportunity to establish hedging positions, while short - hedgers should appropriately reduce hedging positions [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Risks**: The risk of the Iran war expanding has increased. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen attacked Israel for the first time since the outbreak of the war, and the US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. The US has only destroyed about one - third of Iran's missile arsenal, and the situation of another one - third is unclear [17]. - **Shipping Restrictions**: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has banned shipping to or from ports of Israel's allies and supporters, and the Hormuz Strait is closed [17]. - **Central Bank Statements**: Richmond Fed President Barkin believes it is appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged due to the US - Iran conflict and the rapid spread of artificial intelligence. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson warns that the long - term high inflation rate in the US may turn the commodity shock caused by the Iran war into a more serious problem [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar industry in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "oscillating" [1]. - The investment rating for the rubber - related industry in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating", with the synthetic rubber part being "oscillating and slightly bullish" [4]. 2. Core Views - For the sugar market, the overseas market is focused on India and Thailand's final sugar production and Brazil's new - season sugar - making process. High oil prices may lead to a higher ethanol - making ratio in Brazil, tightening sugar supply. In the domestic market, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, with a supply - demand structure that is relatively loose. However, high raw sugar prices and potential policy support provide some support for Zhengzhou sugar, which is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - For the rubber market, natural rubber has a mixed fundamental situation. Seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supports raw material prices, but demand drag from some semi - steel tire enterprises and high inventory in Qingdao suppress prices. The market still has a bullish sentiment due to high raw material and synthetic rubber prices, and NR performs stronger than RU. Synthetic rubber, especially BR, is in an upward channel. High raw material costs and geopolitical conflicts keep the price rising, and it may continue to oscillate upwards in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Market Conditions - SR605 contract closed at 5441 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.42%, and 5431 yuan/ton at night. SR609 contract closed at 5467 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.36%, and 5464 yuan/ton at night [1]. - ICE raw sugar's main contract was at 15.54 cents/pound yesterday, with a daily decline of 1.33% [1]. Important Information - Guangxi's white sugar spot transaction price was 5446 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. Guangxi's sugar - making group's quotation range was 5430 - 5510 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Yunnan's sugar - making group's quotation was 5280 - 5340 yuan/ton, with some up 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar factories was 5690 - 5860 yuan/ton, with individual prices up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - From the 2025/26 sugar - making season to mid - March, the cumulative crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 603.667 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.65 billion tons (2.21%). The ATR of sugarcane was 138.25 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.61%, an increase of 2.53% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative ethanol production was 32.962 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 billion liters (4.21%). The cumulative sugar production was 402.5 million tons, an increase of 282,000 tons (0.71%) compared to the same period last year [1]. - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India's Maharashtra state, 183 out of 210 sugar mills have stopped production, and the remaining 27 are expected to stop in the next 15 days. In Uttar Pradesh, about 78 sugar mills are expected to continue production until mid - April [1]. - From March 27th to 30th, 10 more sugar mills in Guangxi stopped production. As of March 30th, the number of sugar mills that have stopped production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi has reached 38, more than half of the total [1]. - The white sugar warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 16,862 yesterday, a daily increase of 520 [1]. Market Logic - Overseas: ICE raw sugar rose and then fell. The market focuses on India and Thailand's sugar production and Brazil's new - season sugar - making. High oil prices may lead to a higher ethanol - making ratio in Brazil, tightening sugar supply. If oil prices remain high or rise, raw sugar may have more upside potential [1]. - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar rose first and then fell. The 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, and the domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose. However, high raw sugar prices and potential policy support provide some support. Technically, it is in an upward channel but faces pressure and may oscillate in the short term [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily observe Zhengzhou sugar and focus on short - term trading in the near future [1]. Rubber Market Market Conditions - As of March 30th, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,540 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The closing price of the NR main contract was 13,845 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The closing price of the BR main contract was 17,725 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.64% [4]. Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 79.5 Thai baht/kg, and cup - rubber price was 59.5 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the price of glue for making whole - milk rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, and for making concentrated latex was 15,200 yuan/ton. The price of rubber blocks in Yunnan was 13,800 yuan/ton. In Hainan, the price of glue for making whole - milk rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, and for making concentrated latex was 16,500 yuan/ton [4]. - As of March 29th, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,800 tons (0.85%). The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 1.62%. The general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, an increase of 1.38% [4]. - The price of whole - milk rubber was 16,400 yuan/ton, 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 2,035 US dollars/ton (equivalent to 14,087 yuan/ton in RMB), and 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,800 yuan/ton [4]. - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 2,695 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The price difference between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 740 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton [4]. - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was 17,900 - 18,300 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were stable or slightly decreased. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market fell 200 yuan/ton to 18,400 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: It was consolidating at a high level. Seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supported raw material prices, but some semi - steel tire enterprises' production cuts dragged down overall capacity utilization. High inventory in Qingdao suppressed prices. However, due to high raw material and synthetic rubber prices, the market still had a bullish sentiment, and NR performed stronger than RU [4]. - Synthetic rubber: BR was in an upward channel and was consolidating at a high level due to long - position reduction. High raw material costs and frequent butadiene export news increased the raw material cost of cis - butadiene rubber. Although downstream procurement was cautious, the price may still rise in the short term under geopolitical conflicts [4]. Trading Strategy - Partially take profits on NR long positions; hold BR long positions [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The zinc market has strong resilience due to support from the mining end, reduced supply, and inventory drawdown, but the macro - environment is still uncertain. In the short term, zinc prices are likely to fluctuate strongly [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For the SHFE zinc contracts, the 2604 contract opened at 23,210 yuan/ton, closed at 23,480 yuan/ton, with a rise of 270 yuan and a gain of 1.16%. The 2605 contract (the main contract) opened at 23,250 yuan/ton, closed at 23,540 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan with a 1.23% increase. The 2606 contract opened at 23,250 yuan/ton, closed at 23,575 yuan/ton, rising 300 yuan with a 1.29% increase [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation remains high, and concerns about energy and logistics costs due to ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, along with a strong US dollar, keep the market sentiment cautious. Overseas mines are in a tight supply situation, and the repair of domestic zinc concentrate processing fees is slow. This week, the domestic mine processing fee remained at 1,550 yuan/ton, and the import TC index was negative. The smelting end has entered the maintenance season, reducing domestic supply pressure. As downstream consumption recovers, domestic zinc ingot inventories continue to decline. The rise in futures zinc prices drives up spot prices, and the premium - discount performance is stable, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand [7]. 2. Industry News - On March 30, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 23,295 - 23,530 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 23,225 - 23,460 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton for the next - month ticket to the SMM average price, and there was no quote against the futures [8]. - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 23,210 - 23,480 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 23,240 - 23,500 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingots were traded around 23,170 - 23,420 yuan/ton. Zijin offered a discount of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and Huxin was priced at 24,620 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc ingots offered a discount of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and the Tianjin market was at a discount of about 30 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventories, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For bean meal M2605, it is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybeans are oscillating downward due to increased planting area and technical adjustment. The domestic bean meal is affected by the US soybeans and sufficient supply expectations. Although China's continuous procurement of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean market, the completion of procurement volume and good weather in South America limit its upside. The domestic bean meal will enter an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern in the short term [9]. - For soybeans A2605, it is predicted to oscillate between 4560 and 4660. The US soybeans are in an oscillating state, waiting for the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the weather in South American harvesting areas. The domestic soybeans are affected by the US soybeans, the Middle - East conflict, and short - term demand, and will maintain a high - level oscillation. The purchase volume of US soybeans by China is uncertain, and the good weather in South America restricts the upside of the US soybean market. Domestic soybean storage and cost - performance advantages support the bottom, but the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production and spot prices limit the upside [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 2960, and soybeans A2605 between 4560 - 4660. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean planting area, China - US trade, South American weather, and domestic supply and demand [9] [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the purchase volume and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly in the short term, waiting for further information on South American soybean harvesting, import arrivals, and China - US trade negotiations. - The domestic import of soybeans in the first quarter continues to decline, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in March. With normal weather in South American soybean planting, the bean meal has returned to an oscillating range. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations of pig replenishment, suppressing the price of bean meal in March. The impact of US soybeans and weak demand for bean meal coexist. - The high inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal, potential weather speculation in South American soybean areas, and the preliminary China - US trade agreement make the bean meal oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. It awaits further clarity on the Middle - East situation, South American soybean production, and China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bean meal bullish factors: preliminary China - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; no pressure on the inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal; uncertain weather in South American soybean areas. - Bean meal bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in March; expected high yield of South American soybeans with normal weather. - Soybean bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations. - Soybean bearish factors: high yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement; expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses prices [14] [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Transaction data**: From March 20 to March 30, the average transaction price of bean meal decreased from 3396 to 3276, and the trading volume fluctuated. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2440 to 2330, and the trading volume was relatively low. The price difference between bean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [16]. - **Price data**: From March 23 to March 30, the prices of soybean futures and bean meal futures generally showed a downward trend, while the spot prices of soybeans and bean meal also decreased [18]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From March 19 to March 30, the number of bean - one, bean - two, and bean - meal warehouse receipts decreased [20]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years. For example, the global soybean output has generally increased from 2016 - 2025, and the domestic soybean import volume has also been at a relatively high level [32] [33]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has increased from a low level, also both month - on - month and year - on - year. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the bean - meal inventory has returned to a normal level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, but the bean - meal output in February has slightly decreased year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have slightly decreased, and the short - term stocking demand is good. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly. - The pig inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has slightly decreased. The proportion of large pigs in the country has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit loss has expanded, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio have dropped to a low level [45] [47] [50] [52] [54] [56] [58] [60] [62] [64] [66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and near - term strong and long - term weak. The US soybean futures price is driven by geopolitical conflicts and weather premiums, while the domestic soybean meal spot market is regionally differentiated with light trading. The market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report, and the futures price is oscillating weakly [5]. - The palm oil market is affected by Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Although the futures price follows the external market to strengthen, the domestic spot market is under pressure from high inventory and inverted bean - palm spread, and there is a risk of a pull - back after the market sentiment is released [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the US soybean futures price is driven by the expansion of the Middle East conflict and the pre - sowing drought in major US agricultural regions. Domestically, the spot market is regionally differentiated with light trading, and the market is waiting for the planting intention report [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy stimulates the futures market, but the domestic spot market is affected by high inventory and inverted bean - palm spread, and there is a risk of a pull - back after the market sentiment is released [7].