01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格下跌，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 烧碱 :现货价格下跌，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上 | | | | 周环比+1.0%。分区域来看，华北、华中、华东负荷均有上升，华北+0.7%至81.0%，其中山东-0.1%至92.8%，华中+5.1%至83.3%；华东+1.5%至76.9%。 | | | | 其它大区基本稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（2)粘胶短纤行业产能利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises are operating at a high level, and there are still vehicle - queuing situations at major downstream enterprises. Enterprises have high inventories, and there are no short - term positive factors. The price is expected to be weak in the next week. In the East China region, supply will remain abundant, the traditional off - season for demand will continue, and exports are not significantly boosted. It is estimated that the price in East China will continue to decline. Overall, the demand side provides weak support, and there are still long - term supply - demand pressures. The price of caustic soda is expected to run weakly [2]. - Futures strategy advice: Adopt a bearish approach. - Options strategy advice: Stay on the sidelines. PVC - The supply pressure will not ease next week, and the operating rate still has room for improvement. The operating rate of pipe and profile products remains low, while the soft products will remain in high demand, and export orders may increase slightly. The cost - side support is expected to continue to strengthen, and the PVC market is expected to continue to operate in a range. From November to January of the following year is the traditional off - season for demand. As outdoor construction in the north gradually decreases in winter, the overall real - estate demand reduction still has a negative impact. In terms of exports, the inventory in the Indian region is currently at a high level, the purchasing enthusiasm is average, the international market competition is fierce, and the export boost is limited. The overall demand side provides weak support for PVC, the supply - demand situation remains in an oversupply pattern, the price is not optimistic, and although the absolute price is low, it is difficult to form a continuous upward drive. It is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [3]. - Futures strategy advice: Treat rebounds with a bearish attitude. - Options strategy advice: Stay on the sidelines. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda Market Performance - The caustic soda market has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand relationships, and cost fluctuations. For example, the 8 - month contract repaired the basis, and the market accelerated its decline. The spot market was in a game, and there were concerns about the marginal weakening under the subsequent supply recovery, with the downstream demand being stable [6]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 89.86%, a 0.17 - percentage - point increase from 89.69% last week. There were few chlor - alkali device overhauls this week, and the operating load rate increased slightly. In Shandong, it was 91.45%, a decrease of 0.21% [25]. - On December 3rd, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China was 253,150 tons, a 3.16% decrease from 261,400 tons on November 26th. The inventory in Shandong decreased slightly due to some factories delivering goods to downstream, and the overall inventory in East China decreased. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in Shandong was 120,400 tons, a 3.53% decrease from 124,800 tons on November 26th [25]. Device Dynamics - There are multiple caustic soda production enterprises with various overhaul situations, including long - term shutdowns, current overhauls, and future planned overhauls. For example, Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and the start - up time is undetermined; Zhejiang Juhua in the East China has been operating at half - load since October 11, continuing until January 1, 2026 [26]. Downstream Demand - Alumina: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 1.23 billion tons (including 200 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%. The estimated annual alumina production in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is estimated to require an additional 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increase for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [30]. - Currently, the domestic alumina futures and spot prices are both poor, market confidence has not been significantly restored, and it is expected that the price will maintain a weak adjustment trend, with the price operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton [34]. - Non - aluminum downstream industries: The textile operating rate has declined, while the viscose staple fiber operating rate has increased [49]. Export - In October, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit declined [56]. PVC Market Performance - The PVC futures market has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - sentiment, and cost. For example, due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity atmosphere, the futures price has continued to decline [63]. Profit - The industry profit of PVC has continued to deteriorate, and the profits of various production methods such as the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China and the northwest region have shown different degrees of decline [69]. Supply - This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry increased slightly. Only one enterprise had a temporary shutdown this week, and the previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumed production, resulting in a decrease in overhaul losses. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.01%, a 0.16 - percentage - point increase from last week; among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 82.09%, a 0.12 - percentage - point decrease; and the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 71.92%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase [85]. Device Dynamics - There are long - term shutdowns, current overhauls, and future planned overhauls of PVC production enterprises. For example, Taiwen Yanhua in North China has been shut down since September 30, 2022, and the start - up time is undetermined; Ningbo Hanwha in East China plans to conduct an overhaul from December 15th to December 28th [87]. Downstream Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. In addition to demand issues, they also face industry competition, so the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real - estate sector still provides negative demand feedback, and the domestic demand has not shown obvious improvement. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and both raw material and finished product inventories are at high levels, so the PVC downstream is expected to lack positive drivers [93]. Inventory - The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared to the same period [101]. Export - In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, with an average export price of 605 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons. The single - month export decreased by 9.91% month - on - month, increased by 34.28% year - on - year compared to the same month last year, and the cumulative export increased by 48.88% year - on - year. In October 2025, the PVC import volume was 10,900 tons, with an average import price of 725 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import from January to October was 186,400 tons. The single - month import decreased by 24.14% month - on - month, increased by 20.66% year - on - year compared to the same month last year, and the cumulative import increased by 1.74% year - on - year [119].

南华期货烧碱产业周报 ——基本面支撑不足 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 基本面支撑有限，淡季来临需求端有进一步走弱预期；烧碱产量高位，供应压力持续；估值上，液氯价格中 性，氯碱利润虽有下滑但处于中性位置。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 * 远端交易预期 中长期投产压力继续，供需格局偏弱。 液碱周度厂内库存季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 30 40 50 60 source： 南华研究 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 10 20 烧碱01合约基差季节性（山东） source： wind,南华研究 元/吨 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 -500 0 500 液碱山东周度工厂库存季节性 source： BAIINFO,南华研究 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/0 ...

烧碱：趋势偏弱 PVC：趋势偏弱 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 1 烧碱观点：趋势偏弱 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.0%。分区域来看，华北、华中、华东负荷均有上升，华北 | | --- | --- | | | +0.7%至81.0%，其中山东-0.1%至92.8%，华中+5.1%至83.3%；华东+1.5%至76.9%。其它大区基本稳定。 | | | 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，利润被持续压缩，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽然年底到明年年初氧化铝存在新增产能，但因 | | 需求 | 耗碱量差异，未来减产装置单位耗碱量远高于新投产装置，因此氧化铝行业对烧碱难有需求扩张。非铝需求当前维持刚需，后期也逐步面 | | | 临淡季，难有进一步上行空间。从出口方面看，出口订单较少，50碱-32碱价差仍偏弱。 | | | 烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯碱利润。从需求端看，氧化铝低利润导致烧碱产业链负反馈，同时非铝下游支撑有限，出 | | | 口承压，整体需求难有支撑。同时，山东氧化铝大厂的烧碱库存处于高位，每日 ...

早上好，先来关注下海外市场。 突发"黑天鹅"，巴西股汇"双杀" 本周五，巴西前总统长子、参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗表示，他的父亲、巴西前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗已 表示将支持他2026年竞选总统。有关弗拉维奥的报道冲击了巴西市场，当日巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率下跌 近3%，当地基准股指暴跌逾4%。 弗拉维奥参议员办公室对外证实，他将作为自由党的候选人挑战现任总统卢拉。 有分析师表示："市场之前预期弗雷塔斯会成为博索纳罗钦点的候选人，而市场的技术面仓位在一定程 度上也反映了这种乐观情绪。相比之下，弗拉维奥对阵卢拉的竞争力更弱，而且在经济政策预期方面也 更差，这对巴西资产来说都是负面因素。" 美国白宫发布新版《国家安全战略》 据央视新闻消息，美国白宫于当地时间4日晚发布特朗普政府的新版《国家安全战略》。这份文件共33 页，阐述本届美国政府对其外交政策的调整。 据悉，该战略的核心是美国重新调整美国在西半球的军事存在，以应对移民、毒品走私等。该战略称， 这是提出并实施针对门罗主义的所谓"特朗普推论"。 在有关欧洲的部分，有分析认为该战略对欧洲展示出前所未有的对抗姿态。该战略警告称，欧洲面临着 经济衰退，并且从长远来看，北约某些成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to structural oversupply, with futures prices hitting new lows since listing, and near-month contracts declining more sharply than far-month contracts [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of December 4, the inventory of caustic soda in fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises across the country reached 504,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.43% and a year-on-year surge of 79.32% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda sample enterprises was 86.0%, with a weekly output of 846,000 tons, both figures at year-high levels [1] - The demand from the alumina industry, the largest downstream consumer of caustic soda, is weakening due to falling product prices and negative profit margins, leading to some companies initiating short-term maintenance and production cuts [2][3] Price Movements and Profitability - Despite the decline in caustic soda prices, the price of liquid chlorine has risen from -500 yuan/ton in September to 150 yuan/ton, which has helped offset some of the pressure from falling caustic soda prices [2] - The average profit margin for Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises is currently 241 yuan/ton, indicating a return to profitability [2] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the weak fundamentals of the caustic soda market are unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term, with supply pressures expected to persist until there is a significant decrease in operating rates [3][4] - The potential for new caustic soda capacity additions of approximately 1 million tons by 2025 and over 2 million tons by 2026 could maintain supply pressures [3] - A shift towards a more balanced supply-demand situation may not occur until after the 2026 Spring Festival, when seasonal maintenance could reduce supply and downstream stocking demand may be released [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract down by 1.91% to 2105.0 CNY/ton as of December 5 [1] Inventory and Production - As of December 4, caustic soda enterprise inventory reached 504,800 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons or 7.45% from the previous week; over the past month, inventory has accumulated an increase of 90,000 tons, representing a 21.70% rise [2] - The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more reached 504,800 tons (wet tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.43% and a year-on-year increase of 79.32% [2] Market Position and Trading - As of December 4, the top 20 futures companies in caustic soda held a total of 196,700 long positions and 227,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.86; the net position was -31,200 contracts, an increase of 2,954 contracts compared to the previous day [2] Industry Insights - According to Ruida Futures, production load in North, Central, and East China has increased, with the average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda rising; however, downstream demand remains weak, leading to high inventory levels compared to previous years [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that the caustic soda market continues to face downward pressure due to high inventory levels and insufficient downstream demand, although there is still some profit in the chlor-alkali sector [4]

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-05 液氯价格有支撑，烧碱负荷不减 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4500元/吨（-41）；华东基差-40元/吨（+21）;华南基差-20元/吨（+31）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4480元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2905元/吨（+25）；电石利润-25元/吨（+25）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-881元/吨（-33）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-13.8美元/吨（-4.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.3万吨（+0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.09%（-0.12%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.92%（+0.80%）；PVC开工率79.01%（+0.16%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.0万吨（-0.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2140元/吨（-25）；山东32%液碱基差141元/吨（+25）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价730元/吨（+0）；山东5 ...

| 原油产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | | | | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 12月4日 | | 12月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent 63.26 | | 62.67 | 0.59 | 0.94% | | | WTI 59.67 | | 58.95 | 0.72 | 1.22% | 美元/桶 | | SC 451.30 | | 449.30 | 2.00 | 0.45% | 元/神 | | Brent M1-M3 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.04 | 6.56% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.11 | 22.00% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | -1.50 | -1.30 | -0.20 | 15.38% | 元/神 | | Brent-WTI | 3.59 | 3.72 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as a relatively clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Various chemical products in the industry are facing different market situations, with a mix of supply - demand imbalances, cost - driven factors, and inventory pressures. Some products are expected to have short - term fluctuations, while others have long - term supply - demand trends that need attention [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts declined. Supply device restart expectations increased market caution. Propylene inventory was low, but real - deal premiums narrowed. PE faced fundamental pressure, and PP's supply support weakened due to restarting devices [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene was in a narrow - range shock, with high arrival expectations and falling downstream demand. However, future device maintenance may ease the downward pressure. Styrene's supply - demand structure improved, and it is expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices weakened slightly. PX may be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol has supply pressure and is expected to accumulate inventory. Short - fiber has a good long - term supply - demand pattern, while bottle - chip has long - term overcapacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined. The port inventory is expected to remain high, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Urea's upward drive is insufficient, with high daily production and overall loose supply - demand [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to accumulate inventory, and its price declined. Supply pressure may ease, but overall demand is weak. Caustic soda continued to decline, with high supply and insufficient demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was in shock, with high inventory and an overall oversupply pattern in the long term. Glass prices were weak, with low demand and the need for further cold - repair for upward drive [8]