Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. congressional action aims to impose sanctions on countries that restrict rare earth exports, indicating a shift towards aggressive legislative measures to control global resource distribution [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Actions and Implications - The new legislation grants the U.S. more tools to intervene and potentially punish countries or companies that do not align with its interests, creating significant uncertainty in the global supply chain [5]. - This move reflects the U.S.'s urgency to secure its position in critical industries such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and military materials, all of which rely heavily on rare earth elements [3][5]. Group 2: Global Resource Dynamics - The uneven global distribution of rare earth resources complicates the U.S.'s ability to control exports from other nations, as many countries view resource management as a matter of national sovereignty [3][5]. - The legislation could lead to a backlash from resource-rich countries, as it challenges their rights to manage their own resources, potentially destabilizing international trade relations [5][9]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Countries, particularly resource-rich ones like China, are likely to respond by reinforcing their own export controls and optimizing their resource management strategies, reflecting a broader struggle for global influence [5][7]. - The situation emphasizes the need for countries to balance protecting their strategic interests while maintaining stable supply chains, indicating a complex interplay of economic and political factors [7][9]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The effectiveness of the U.S. legislation remains uncertain, as it may provoke resistance from other nations and complicate the global resource market, highlighting the challenges of unilateral actions [5][10]. - The next steps for the global community will be crucial, as countries must decide whether to compromise or strengthen cooperation against perceived unilateral dominance [9].

民生证券近日发布有色金属周报：本周（04/28-04/30）上证综指下跌0.49%，沪深300指 数下跌0.43%，SW有色指数下跌0.81%，贵金属COMEX黄金下跌-1.00%，COMEX白银下 跌-1.01%。工业金属LME铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动+1.11%、+0.83%、 +0.57%、+1.28%、+0.35%、+1.79%，工业金属库存LME铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变 动-2.36%、-2.48%、-5.27%、-4.14%、-1.44%、-2.65%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 贵金属：市场对中美达成贸易协议的乐观态度，削弱了避险资产，金价短期回落，美元 走弱大趋势下继续看好贵金属价格后续表现。目前市场对中美达成贸易协议的乐观态度，削 弱了避险资产，对金价反弹造成限制。中长期来看，去美元中心化+美元信用弱化为主线， 全球贸易担忧情绪仍存，叠加俄乌冲突不断升级，看好金价中枢上移。白银价格受金价回落 影响也有所回落，但工业属性利好使得其回落幅度小于黄金，后续若看到金价反弹，银价弹 性相对更高，价格有望创历史新高。重点推荐：万国黄金集团、赤峰黄金、山金国际、招金 矿业、山东黄金、中金黄金、湖 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a strong demand for gold driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, with global investment demand reaching 552 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 170% [1][36] - The easing of U.S. tariff policies has positively impacted copper prices, with a rebound observed due to improved market sentiment and a decrease in global copper inventories [2] - The lithium market is facing cost pressures, leading to a reduction in production rates, while demand remains stable, suggesting a potential stabilization in lithium prices [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In Q1 2025, global gold investment demand surged to 552 tons, with ETF inflows accounting for 226 tons, indicating strong market interest despite a 21% year-on-year decrease in central bank purchases [1][36] Industrial Metals - Copper inventories fell to 582,000 tons, with a reduction of 58,000 tons week-on-week, supporting a price rebound following the easing of tariffs [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of U.S. Federal Reserve policies and domestic production adjustments, with theoretical operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum at 43.835 million tons [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased by 3.1% to 66,000 yuan per ton, while production rates have dropped by 14% to 14,500 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] - The demand for silicon metal remains stable, but high inventory levels are expected to keep prices under pressure [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, with various buy ratings based on projected earnings growth and favorable market conditions [8]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Accumulate" rating [5] Core Views - The gold market is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, while still possessing upward momentum in the medium term. Recent price fluctuations are attributed to easing tariff policies and profit-taking by bullish investors. Concerns about the sustainability of central bank gold purchases are also noted [1][36] - For industrial metals, copper is seeing a recovery in prices due to increased downstream operating rates and a significant drop in inventories. The market sentiment has improved following the easing of tariff tensions, although uncertainties from trade conflicts remain [2] - In the energy metals sector, lithium production is being constrained by cost pressures, leading to a reduction in operational rates. The market is closely monitoring inventory levels for signs of a turning point [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase in prices this week, with specific metals experiencing varied price movements [12][18] - The overall non-ferrous metal index rose by 1.5%, with energy metals up by 2.9% and precious metals down by 2.5% [18] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Downstream operating rates have improved, and global copper inventories have decreased significantly to 641,000 tons, down by 55,000 tons week-on-week. The market anticipates a price recovery due to increased demand and tight supply conditions [2] - **Aluminum**: The easing of U.S. tariff policies is expected to support aluminum prices in the short term, despite an increase in production capacity [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The production of lithium salts is being curtailed due to rising costs, with current production rates at 45%. The market is awaiting a potential inventory turning point [3] - **Silicon Metal**: High inventory levels are limiting price increases, with current social inventory at 602,000 tons. The market remains in a loose supply-demand balance [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [7]

金：本周COMEX金价-3.05%至3300.20美元/盎司，美债10年期TIPS下降18BP至2.02%。 SPDR黄金持仓减少12.90吨至946.27吨。本周黄金价格再创历史新高，突破3400美元/盎司关 口，主要受经济不确定性、地缘政治紧张和贸易担忧等因素推动。（1）标普全球数据显 示，美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值意外升至50.7，好于预期的49，但服务业和综合PMI初值 均低于预期，分别为51.4和51.2，且综合PMI初值创下16个月新低，不过三者均仍处于扩张 区间。（2）美联储理事沃勒表示，若特朗普政府恢复高额关税，美国企业可能大规模裁 员，届时他将支持美联储降息。 稀土：本周稀土价格整体下行，系贸易战带来较弱需求预期；但重稀土价格相对轻稀土 稳健，系出口管制带来的价格支撑。据SMM，拥有美国唯一稀土矿的MP Materials公司已停 止向中国出口稀土精矿，考虑海外镨钕冶炼分离产能情况，全球镨钕供应有望进一步收缩， 进而支撑镨钕价格。关注中国稀土、北方稀土、包钢股份、金力永磁等标的。 开源证券近日发布有色金属周报：本周稀土价格整体下行，系贸易战带来较弱需求预 期；但重稀土价格相对轻稀土 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in copper prices due to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper prices rising by 2.98% in the US, 2.55% in London, and 1.71% in Shanghai. The report notes that the largest copper mine in Peru, Antamina, has halted operations due to an accident, impacting supply. The copper rod operating rate increased to 79.56%, and social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 22.15% to 181,700 tons [4][3] - Aluminum prices are rising as domestic inventory decreases, with alumina prices stabilizing after maintenance cuts. The report indicates that electrolytic aluminum margins have improved, suggesting a potential shortage in supply this year [4][3] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to demand growth not meeting expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and a downward trend in prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential production cuts and marginal improvements in demand [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic conditions, noting that initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.50% [13] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 2.55% and Shanghai copper up 1.71%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 31.97% [28] 2.2. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose, with London aluminum increasing by 3.25% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.29%. The report notes a rise in aluminum processing margins [37] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - Lead and zinc prices saw increases, with lead prices up 2.72% and zinc prices up 3.48%. The report indicates improved profitability for mining companies [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased, with London tin up 5.04%. Nickel prices also saw slight increases, but profitability for nickel enterprises has narrowed [63] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium prices are declining, with carbonate lithium down 2.31% to 69,800 yuan/ton. The report highlights the need for monitoring supply-side adjustments [79] 3.2. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased, with domestic cobalt prices at 238,000 yuan/ton. The report notes a decline in profitability for domestic smelting plants [89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations [1][35] - The report highlights the mixed performance of industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, with market direction remaining uncertain due to tariff policies and supply-demand dynamics [2] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are facing cost pressures that are limiting production, while the demand for lithium remains stable [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by increased ETF holdings, with a notable weekly increase of 2.58 tons in SPDR Gold ETF [1] - The market is shifting from a "hot economy + inflation" narrative to a stagflation outlook, which historically benefits gold prices [1][35] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a flat performance, with global copper inventories at 695,000 tons, down by 62,000 tons week-on-week [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to U.S. tariff policies, with theoretical operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry at 43.81 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased slightly, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 70,000 yuan/ton, while production is constrained by cost pressures [3] - The report notes a 3% decrease in lithium carbonate production to 17,400 tons, with an operating rate of 46% [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals; Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for industrial metals; and Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [8]

证券研究报告·行业动态 稀土政策加码强化战略定位， 人形机器人未来空间广袤 核心观点 稀土：日前稀土总量调控管理办法加码，拟将稀土开采及分离企 业限于"国家推动组建的大型稀土企业集团" 及所属企业，并 拟将进口矿也纳入总量调控范围，民营冶炼分离企业将逐步退 出，分离产能下降超三分之一，实际分离产量或下降约四分之一。 2024 年我国稀土开采指标 27 万吨，两大稀土集团分离指标 25.4 万吨，进口矿的 13.3 万吨并不占用分离指标，新管理办法将对进 口矿进行全方位管控，强化稀土总量控制，并推动稀土供给更加 集中。 锂：据百川盈孚，本周工业级碳酸锂市场均价为 7.45 万元/吨， 较上周上涨 0.7%；电池级粗粒氢氧化锂均价为 7.1 万元/吨，较 上周持平。供给端，本周碳酸锂行业整体开工率延续升势，周度 产量环比增加。盐湖排产维持，前期复产厂家恢复生产节奏，但 现货市场呈现结构性紧张，优质电碳货源流通有限，主要生产企 业以执行长单交付为主。全产业链库存环比上涨，呈现分化特征。 生产端库存上涨，贸易环节库存略有下行，下游企业原料库存恢 复至 1-2 周安全边际。期货仓单量降至 45025 吨。需求端，2-3 ...