中信证券指出，稀土行业供需格局有望迎来拐点。新能源汽车、消费电子、变频空调、风电等需求有望 持续提升，机器人、低空经济和工业电机等新兴领域有望打开远期需求成长空间。 展望2025下半年，国投证券看好黄金、铜、稀土的投资机会，认为黄金有望受益于美元信用走弱和美国 降息预期增强，看好金价续创新高。铜冶炼原料供给受限，需求具备长期韧性，看好铜价中枢上移。预 计出口逐步放开、需求持续增长、供给刚性下，稀土价格有望迎来上涨。 从估值水平来看，截至6月底，中证有色金属指数市净率为2.24，位于上市以来34.45%分位点的历史较 低位置，低于中证有色金属指数上市以来周频市净率数据的中位数2.52，估值较低，配置性价比较高。 短暂休整后，再冲锋！今日（7月10日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）红盘活跃， 场内价格现涨0.51%。成份股方面，北方稀土涨超6%，华钰矿业涨逾5%，中国稀土涨超3%，中孚实 业、中国铝业等个股跟涨。 消息面上，美东时间7月8日，特朗普在内阁会议上宣称将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税。美 国商务部长卢特尼克表示，特朗普有意对铜征收50%关税的目的是将铜生产转移回美国国内， ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 通胀仍在探底 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 6 月 CPI 同比 0.1%，高于预期 0%，前月-0.1%；CPI 环比-0.1%，前月-0.2%，去年同期-0.2%。剔除食品 和能源的核心 CPI 同比 0.7%，前值 0.6%；环比 0%，前月 0%。PPI 同比-3.6%，预期-3.3%，前月-3.3%；PPI 环比-0.4%，前月-0.4%。CPI 环比跌幅收窄，核心 CPI 继续持平，PPI 跌幅连续四月不变，如何看待 6 月通胀 数据？ CPI 环比略强于季节性。6 月 CPI环比-0.1%，略高于 2021-2024 年同期均值（-0.2%），推动 CPI同比转正 （0.1%），此前四个月连续为负。此外 CPI同比转正，还受到"四舍五入"进位因素的影响，依据环比推算 6 月 CPI 同比在 0%附近。综合上半年来看，CPI 累计环比之和为-0.1%，是近年同期次低值，仅好于 2023 同期的- 0.5%，低于去年同期的 0.1%，反映出今年的价格修复 ...

2022年以来，锂电产业链经历了一场剧烈的价格洗礼。碳酸锂现货价格从峰值时的60万元/吨跌至6万元/吨，跌幅超过90%。这一严峻 现实不仅是市场供需关系调整的结果，更是行业内部长期"内卷式"竞争激化的体现。 锂电产业链当前面临的阵痛，是产业从爆发式增长迈向成熟期的必经考验。碳酸锂价格的理性回归有其必然性，但无序"内卷"带来的 破坏性竞争绝不可持续。从车企缩短账期的务实之举，到全行业对技术创新与深度协作的共识，锂电产业的"反内卷"之路已然开启。 这不仅是企业生存发展的需要，更是保障国家新能源战略安全、实现产业链自主可控与高质量发展的关键。唯有全产业链摒弃零和博 弈思维，以长期主义眼光，共同构建技术驱动、风险可控、协同共赢的健康生态，中国锂电产业才能真正穿越迷雾周期，在全球能源 转型的大潮中行稳致远。 1111 0- 0 TS . 2 ATES x . ENNET and and and 7 the state FC a = 1 e | | - Tall I 112 2 :: E 在经济高速增长时期，其负面影响或被掩盖，但当经济转向高质量发展阶段，"内卷"对效率的侵蚀、对创新的抑制便愈发凸显，成为 制约产业升级的 ...

2022年至今，碳酸锂现货价格从60万元/吨的高点滑落至约6万元/吨，跌幅超过90%，这一系列数字反映了当前产业链在供需结构调整过程中面临的阶段性挑 战。从上游矿山开采到下游电池制造，整个产业链条卷入一场旷日持久的"内卷"中——价格战硝烟弥漫，质量竞赛日趋激烈，各环节普遍步入微利甚至亏损 的生存模式。 供需阶段性失衡 产业链面临"生存困境" 据了解，碳酸锂价格断崖式下跌的根本驱动力在于供需失衡。"2022年至今，碳酸锂供给端增速平均维持在31%左右，需求端增速平均维持在27%左右，供 需差导致库存大面积累积，市场主要矛盾是供给端新增产量不断释放，需求端暂无明显放量。"中信期货研究部有色金属研究员白帅表示。 事实上，"内卷式"竞争在各行各业均不鲜见。此前中国有色金属工业协会会长葛红林表示，锂行业"内卷"源于企业战略短视、跟风投资和缺乏创新，龙头企 业未能有效引导行业自律，反而加剧低价竞争，未来需通过技术创新（如固态电池）和差异化布局（如海外市场拓展）打破僵局。 北京首创期货研究院院长张小凯表示，碳酸锂产业链的"内卷"本质是供需失衡引发的恶性竞争。 具体来看，张小凯介绍说，首先是价格战与利润挤压：上游锂矿企业因锂 ...

Group 1 - Enjie Co., Ltd. expects a loss of 82.65 million to 107 million yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to a profit of 291 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The primary reasons for the expected loss include a decline in the profit margin of lithium battery separator films, losses in certain business segments, increased overseas operating expenses, and a provision for inventory impairment based on prudence [1] - The company needs to adjust its strategy to cope with intensified industry competition and should focus on subsequent performance improvement measures [1] Group 2 - Tianci Materials has filed a request to withdraw a lawsuit regarding a technical secret dispute, which has been approved by the Hangzhou Intermediate People's Court [2] - The withdrawal of the lawsuit is not expected to have a significant adverse impact on the company's current or future profits, and the company plans to file a new lawsuit based on the situation [2] - The outcome of this case may influence the company's future rights protection strategy, necessitating attention to the progress of new litigation and potential risks [2] Group 3 - Multiple silicon wafer manufacturers have raised their prices, with increases ranging from 8% to 11.7% for different sizes of wafers [3] - The price hike is attributed to the upward pressure from rising upstream silicon material costs, although the demand growth at the downstream level is slowing, raising concerns about market acceptance [3] - The ability to pass on price increases to end-users will test the collaborative capacity of the industry chain, and short-term price negotiations are expected to continue [3]

一场涉及商业与资金链信任危机的情绪正在新能源产业链蔓延。 近期在国家部署汽车行业反内卷的主要思路下，比亚迪 (002594.SZ) 、广汽集团、吉利汽车 (0175.HK) 、 长 安 汽 车 (000625.SZ) 、 赛 力 斯 (601127.SH) 、 蔚 来 (9866.HK) 和 理 想 汽 车 (2015.HK) 等核心新能源车企就 "支付账期不超过60天" 作出承诺。 正如我们在 " 中国12家上市车企应付账款逼近万亿大关 " 一文中分析的，庞大规模的三角债几乎 已成为汽车供应商企业不可承受之重。据24潮产业研究院 (TTIR) 统计，截止2024年末，比亚 迪、上汽集团 (600104.SH) 、吉利汽车、长城汽车 (601633.SH) 、长安汽车、赛力斯、理想汽 车、广汽集团 (601238.SH) 、蔚来、小鹏汽车 (9868.HK) 、北汽蓝谷 (600733.SH) 、众泰汽车 (000980.SZ) 等12家主要上市车企应付账款及应付票据合计达9609.31亿元 （同比增长15.05%） ，占整体流动负债比例达55.39% （同比增长3.71个百分点） ，距离万亿大关仅有一步之遥 ...

Economic Overview - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from negative to positive growth, with food prices showing a reduced decline and non-food prices slightly rising [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with a widening decline, indicating that living material prices performed better than production material prices [1] - The average CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, while the average PPI was -2.9%, reflecting a low overall price level in the domestic market [1] External Factors - International commodity prices have decreased, creating downward pressure on domestic prices, particularly affecting industries related to oil and gas, with oil and gas extraction prices down by 12.6% year-on-year and fuel prices down by 10.4% [1] - The rise of anti-globalization sentiments and "reciprocal tariffs" from the U.S. has led to increased trade barriers, impacting China's export industries and potentially leading to further price declines in related sectors [2] Internal Factors - The acceleration of energy structure transformation and the increase in green energy have contributed to lower energy prices, with coal mining and washing prices dropping by 21.8% year-on-year due to reduced demand for thermal power [2] - Intense market competition in certain industries, particularly in manufacturing, has led to price suppression, with many companies engaging in price wars due to product homogeneity [3] Structural Price Changes - Policies aimed at reducing "involution competition" have helped alleviate overcapacity in certain sectors, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as automotive manufacturing and lithium battery production [3] - Consumption-boosting policies have positively impacted certain consumer goods sectors, resulting in price increases for items like arts and crafts, sports goods, and smart consumer products [4] - High-tech industries related to smart manufacturing and digital economy are experiencing rapid growth, with product prices showing a year-on-year increase, indicating a promising future for economic transformation [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - A-share companies are experiencing significant overseas expansion, with notable achievements in infrastructure, biomedicine, and equipment manufacturing, leading to large overseas orders [2][3] - The shift in Chinese enterprises' overseas strategy is moving from cost-driven to innovation-driven, leveraging advanced supply chains, international talent, and digital technologies [2] Group 2: Large Orders and Competitive Strength - A-share companies have secured substantial overseas contracts, particularly in the infrastructure sector, with notable projects including a $1.6 billion contract for a gas processing plant in Iraq and contracts totaling approximately 5.34 billion yuan for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway [3][4] - In the biomedicine sector, companies like Rongchang Bio are accelerating internationalization, exemplified by a licensing agreement with Vor Bio worth up to $4.1 billion [4] - Equipment manufacturing firms are also making strides, with agreements such as a $406 million contract for a conveyor system in Guinea, enhancing their international market presence [4] Group 3: Accelerated Overseas Capacity Layout - Several A-share companies are intensifying their overseas production capacity, viewing local production as a key driver for global competitiveness [6] - Companies like Linglong Tire are investing $1.193 billion in a production base in Brazil, aiming for an annual output of 14.7 million high-performance tires [6] - Other firms, such as North Special Technology and Zhongke Electric, are also establishing production bases in Thailand and Oman, respectively, to enhance their global supply chain [7] Group 4: Rising Trend of Overseas Mergers and Acquisitions - The number of disclosed overseas mergers and acquisitions by A-share companies has surpassed 60 in the first half of the year, with a focus on electronics, automotive parts, and machinery [9] - Companies are pursuing overseas acquisitions to enter emerging markets and enhance their technological capabilities, as seen with Dongshan Precision's dual acquisitions in the optical communication sector [9][10] - The strategy of overseas mergers and acquisitions is aimed at resource and market integration, with firms like Luoyang Molybdenum consolidating their overseas mineral resource reserves [10]

湖南郴州探获4.9亿吨锂矿石上市公司布局当地锂电产业 湖南郴州探获4.9亿吨锂矿石 工商登记显示，湖南大中赫锂矿有限责任公司为大中矿业全资子公司。大中矿业表示，公司已获得湖南 鸡脚山锂矿和四川加达锂矿两大资源，正在全力推进项目建设。 大中矿业表示，湖南鸡脚山锂矿的资源量已通过自然资源部的评审备案，其氧化锂矿物量为131.35万 吨，平均品位0.268%，按照氧化锂和碳酸锂之间的转换系数1:2.47换算，折合碳酸锂当量约为324.43万 吨，跻身全国锂矿企业前列。 7月9日，湖南省自然资源厅发文称，通过创新地质找矿理论，经过长期勘探，湖南省郴州市临武县鸡脚 山矿区已探获超大型蚀变花岗岩型锂矿床，共提交锂矿石量4.9亿吨，氧化锂资源量131万吨。同时，该 超大型矿产伴生铷、钨、锡等多种战略矿产，所有资源均为新增资源量。 上海证券报记者获悉，今年1至4月，郴州锂电产值增速达23.7%，全年产值有望突破1000亿元。截至目 前，郴州已集聚锂电规模企业199家，大中矿业、大为股份等上市公司已经深度布局当地锂电产业，威 领股份、科力远两家锂电产业链上市公司已将总部迁到郴州。 "湖南郴州与江西宜春的锂矿资源有着相似之处，资 ...

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 82.65 million and 107.35 million yuan, compared to a profit of 291.03 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be a loss of 0.09 to 0.11 yuan per share, down from a profit of 0.30 yuan per share in the previous year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The main reason for the loss is a decline in the gross margin of the lithium battery separator products compared to the same period last year [2] - The company is experiencing losses in its aluminum-plastic film, dry lithium battery separator, and some forward-looking business segments [2] - The company is accelerating the construction of overseas production bases for wet lithium battery separators, which is putting short-term pressure on performance due to operational costs [2] - The company plans to make provisions for inventory impairment based on prudence, which will further reduce current profits [2] Business Strategy and Outlook - The company will continue to focus on the lithium battery separator business and deepen its efforts in the new energy sector [2] - There is a positive market demand and development outlook for lithium battery separator products, supported by the global energy transition and carbon neutrality goals [1]