Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing intensified divergence between bulls and bears, showing a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The short - term trends of nickel and stainless steel are affected by multiple factors such as policy expectations, cost, demand, and technical adjustments, and they are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 19, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 141,500 yuan/ton and closed at 142,320 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 949,372 (-375,848) lots, and the open interest was 83,210 (-14,515) lots. The contract showed a wide - range volatile downward trend, with an obvious outflow of funds. The core drivers include the game of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy, the premium structure of spot goods, the demand transmission of stainless steel, and the high - level callback pressure on the technical side. The position - limit policy of the Shanghai Futures Exchange also had an impact [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: There were occasional inquiries in the nickel ore market but no transactions. The price of nickel ore was stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. The price of domestic ferronickel rebounded slightly, and domestic factories' attitude of bargaining for raw material nickel ore may ease due to pre - Chinese - New - Year stockpiling. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase I) dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium was mainly at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 149,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel of various brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 1,350 yuan/ton to 7,850 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 41,798 (-187) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,708 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated downward today, which is essentially the resonance of policy expectation correction and technical adjustment. In the short term, it may maintain a range - bound pattern between 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's quota, changes in spot premiums, and the recovery rhythm of stainless steel demand. Be vigilant against the callback risk caused by capital outflows. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side position, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 19, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,305 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 287,688 (-82,040) lots, and the open interest was 141,891 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a bottom - hunting and rebound, with a volatile and slightly stronger trend, presenting a pattern of "cost support + demand game". The core logic lies in the upward cost of ferronickel, the price - holding by steel mills, and the inventory reduction of spot goods providing support, while the low acceptance of high prices by end - users and the fluctuation of Shanghai nickel dragging down the futures market. The divergence between bulls and bears is concentrated on the pre - Chinese - New - Year stockpiling rhythm and the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's quota [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the weak upward movement of the futures market, the quotes of spot traders declined. In the Foshan area, due to the early expected Spring Festival holiday, the high - pressure of year - end payment collection, the strong wait - and - see sentiment of downstream users, and the weak trading volume, traders' phenomenon of selling at a discount increased, and the price was slightly lower than that in the Wuxi area. Although the current demand for stainless steel is still weak and the spot quotes have slightly adjusted, the market's available spot supply is still tight, and the inventory pressure of traders mainly dealing in spot goods is low. With cost support and the high - level support of the futures market, the market's sentiment of holding prices still exists, and the short - term price may remain firm. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,300 (-100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,150 (-150) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 10 - 210 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 10.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,027.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, it may maintain a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the price trend of ferronickel, and the downstream stockpiling intensity before the Spring Festival. The support strength of the cost side and the recovery situation of the demand side will determine the subsequent trend direction. The single - side position is neutral, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Aluminum, cotton [39][189] - **Negative Outlook**: PX, PTA, rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, soda ash, PVC, sugar, live pigs [84][86][94][102][159][165] - **Neutral Outlook**: Zinc, lead, tin, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, steam coal, logs, MEG, synthetic rubber, methanol, urea, styrene, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, pure benzene, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, eggs, peanuts [29][31][36][44][50][53][56][57][62][67][71][77][84][92][115][119][120][130][137][155][157][165][172][175][178][193][201] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Global Market**: Geopolitical conflicts led by Trump have increased short - term volatility in overseas markets, with the EU considering counter - measures. Meanwhile, China's GDP data has stabilized global confidence in China, and the RMB has strengthened. Pre - holiday domestic stability and overseas volatility intensification are normal, and investors should pay attention to the uncertainty risks caused by irrational fluctuations under the linkage of various markets [8]. - **Commodity Markets** - **Caustic Soda**: High inventory and weak demand lead to downward price pressure in the near term, but long - term contracts may face cost increases and supply cuts [11][100]. - **Natural Rubber**: Overseas raw material prices are falling, and domestic inventory accumulation continues, with short - term market trends remaining weak [12]. - **Propylene**: Spot driving force is weakening, and the market is mainly affected by cost and downstream factors [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased risk - aversion sentiment, driving up the prices of gold and silver [8]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a range - bound pattern [43][44]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: LME spot prices are strengthening, and the price is firm. Supply - side projects and geopolitical factors have an impact [24]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound pattern [27]. - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventory supports the price [30]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound pattern [33]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, while alumina continues to decline [38]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Indonesian policies cause fluctuations, and nickel prices have a wide - range oscillatory pattern [46]. 3.1.3 Other Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Downstream purchases have cooled, and the price is in a high - level oscillatory pattern [51]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream production cuts have led to a rebound in the market [54]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy - **Coal**: The market sentiment for steam coal is weak, and the price is in a short - term weak adjustment [72]. - **LPG**: The downward driving force is gradually being realized [127]. - **Fuel Oil**: It has a narrow - range oscillatory pattern, and short - term fluctuations are narrowing [137]. 3.2.2 Chemicals - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX has a weak cost and a short - term oscillatory pattern; PTA focuses on narrowing processing fees; MEG has limited downward space [78]. - **Rubber**: It is in a weak oscillatory pattern [86]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has a short - term weak operation [90]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE has increased standard product production and weakening spot trading; PP has a strong cost support but weak demand [93][95]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is under pressure in the short term [98]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a weak oscillatory pattern [103]. - **Glass**: The raw sheet price is stable [108]. - **Methanol**: It is in an oscillatory operation [111]. - **Urea**: It is in an oscillatory consolidation [116]. - **Styrene**: It has a short - term oscillatory pattern [120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [122]. - **PVC**: It has a weak oscillatory pattern [134]. 3.3 Agricultural Products 3.3.1 Grains - **Corn**: The price has corrected [176]. 3.3.2 Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil has limited short - term negatives, and soybean oil has limited rebound height [167]. 3.3.3 Others - **Sugar**: It is in a low - level consolidation [179]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment [185]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [192]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has weakened, and the peak - season expectation has decreased [195]. - **Peanuts**: It is in an oscillatory operation [199]. 3.4 Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in a temporary oscillatory pattern. Factors such as capacity, geopolitics, and demand affect the market [139].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous sector has seen a general decline due to the correction of precious metals and copper, but the medium - to - long - term trend remains upward. The cyclical upward trend of non - ferrous metals may have begun, and the industry trend is positive in the medium - to - long - term [6]. - For nickel, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy after the correction stabilizes, and sell out - of - the - money put options for options trading [5][6]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, passively following the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 351,000 tons, with an increase of 3,406 tons this week. Domestic social inventory increased by 2,464 tons, and LME inventory increased by 942 tons. After the New Year's resumption of production, the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel has declined from a high level [11][12]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social inventory of stainless steel is decreasing, and warehouse receipts are at a low level [14]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In 2025, the cumulative output of refined nickel increased by 17% year - on - year to 392,700 tons. In January, high nickel prices are expected to further boost production. From January to November 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 48,900 tons, compared with a net export of 24,800 tons in the same period last year. Due to the opening of the import window at the end of December, net imports are expected to increase in January. From January to November 2025, the domestic refined nickel supply was 410,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48% [22]. - **Demand**: It is the off - season for electroplating and alloy consumption. From January to December, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. Electroplating consumption decreased seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and overall consumption slowed down [23][25]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: In January 2026, the second - round domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore increased significantly month - on - month. On January 14, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources confirmed that the target production of nickel ore in 2026 would be reduced to 250 - 260 million tons from 364 million tons in 2025. The price of Indonesian ferronickel increased, and profits were slightly repaired. The FOB price of medium - and high - grade nickel ore from the Philippines also increased [27]. - **NPI**: The price of NPI has recovered, and the profit margin has been slightly repaired. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia is expected to increase [28]. - **Chromium Series**: The price of chromium series products has started to rise. Zimbabwe will impose a 10% tax on the export of chromium series products starting from January 1, 2026, which has led to a continuous rebound in the price of chromium ore [33][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: Estimated cold - rolling cash cost is around 14,200 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 13,700 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply**: It is expected that the crude steel production of stainless steel in China and Indonesia in 2025 will be 45.06 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. Due to the shortage of hot - rolled products in January, the production schedule of steel mills may be revised downward [45][52]. - **Demand**: The production of shipbuilding plates increased by 29% year - on - year from January to November, providing support. However, the growth rate of other terminal fields is not optimistic, especially the real estate transaction volume has decreased significantly year - on - year [53][54]. 3.2.3 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2% respectively, with a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the sales volume in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. From January 1 - 11, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the domestic market decreased by 38% year - on - year and 67% month - on - month. The production of power cells increased by 41.9% year - on - year to 124.55 GWh from January to December. In January, the decline in power battery production due to poor vehicle sales may be smoothed by the boost of pre - export caused by the reduction of export tax rebates [56][59]. - **Global Market**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. In Europe, the cumulative sales from January to November increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million, while in the US, it increased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 reached 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [60][63]. 3.2.4 Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: In 2025, the production of nickel sulfate in China decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons. The production of ternary precursors increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for nickel sulfate slowed down, but the price followed the strengthening of refined nickel [64][65]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, the production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, while the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur prices led to an increase in the cost of MHP, but the good demand for nickel sulfate boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated production recovery [67][72].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have seen a significant increase of over 30% from mid-December to early January, driven by news of Indonesia's potential reduction of nickel ore quotas for 2026, although prices are currently under pressure due to overall high levels in the non-ferrous metals market [3][15]. Nickel Ore Policy Developments - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) plans to strategically adjust the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to between 250 million and 260 million tons, with existing quotas allowed to continue until the end of Q1 to ensure production continuity during the review period [4][16]. - The price of nickel ore has increased, with a recent transaction of 1.3% grade nickel ore from the Philippines at FOB $38, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase [4][16]. - Domestic nickel ore imports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 40.169 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with nearly 91% sourced from the Philippines [4][16]. Nickel Iron Price Trends - In December 2025, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia was 180,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.6% month-on-month and a 4.8% year-on-year growth [6][18]. - Domestic high-nickel pig iron prices have risen, with factory prices reaching 1,010-1,020 RMB per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices increased to $128 per nickel [6][18]. - Nickel pig iron imports for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 10.056 million tons, a 26.7% increase year-on-year, with approximately 97% of imports from Indonesia [6][18]. Refined Nickel Inventory Pressure - Domestic refined nickel production in December 2025 was 29,058 tons, a slight increase from November but a 16.4% year-on-year decline, with total production for the year at 410,800 tons, a 22.8% increase [8][20]. - As of January 16, total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 48,180 tons, with registered warehouse receipts at 41,985 tons, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [8][20]. - LME nickel inventory has also been on the rise, with the latest total at 285,700 tons, suggesting a globally loose supply of refined nickel [8][20]. Demand Stability and Weakness - Nickel demand is primarily driven by stainless steel, ternary batteries, and nickel alloys, with stainless steel being the most significant sector [10][22]. - In December 2025, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.7472 million tons, a slight decrease from November but a 5.6% year-on-year increase [10][22]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has rapidly increased to 33,600 RMB per ton, indicating some purchasing demand from nickel salt manufacturers despite overall weak speculative demand [10][22]. Summary - The overall environment shows increased volatility in silver and copper prices, which may influence nickel prices [12][24]. - Indonesia's announcement regarding potential reductions in nickel ore quotas is still developing, which could impact market sentiment [12][24]. - Despite the recovery in sentiment across the nickel supply chain, there remains significant pressure from excess inventory, particularly in refined nickel [12][24].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy metals sector, particularly lithium, cobalt, and nickel, highlighting the upcoming supply shortages and price increases expected in the coming years [1][2][3][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments Lithium Market - A clear shortage of lithium carbonate raw materials is anticipated by 2027, driven by battery tax rebate policies, with total lithium demand expected to reach 205,000 tons in 2026 [1][2]. - Despite a potential short-term surplus of 100,000 tons in 2026, demand may be released earlier due to policy impacts, leading to a shortage by 2027 [2]. - The expected lithium supply in 2026 is around 215,000 tons, with growth slowing down, primarily from African mines, domestic salt lakes, and mica mines [7]. - The price of lithium is projected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding 200,000 yuan/ton, driven by strong demand from the energy storage sector [10]. Cobalt Market - The cobalt market is heavily influenced by the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export quota policy, which will see exports drop from 210,000 tons in 2024 to 97,000 tons by 2027, leading to a clear shortage [3][11]. - Cobalt prices are expected to peak around 600,000 yuan in March 2026, with an average price of 500,000 yuan throughout the year [3][13]. - Domestic cobalt inventories have been depleting since mid-2025, with expectations of reaching very low levels by March 2026 [13]. Nickel Market - The nickel market is expected to face significant impacts from resource nationalism and government price support actions, particularly in Indonesia, where mining quotas are likely to tighten [5][14]. - Indonesia's nickel mining quota is projected to be around 250-260 million tons, leading to a supply shortage and supporting price increases [5]. Additional Important Insights - The overall price trend for energy metals is expected to turn positive in 2026, with lithium, cobalt, and nickel prices all projected to rise [6]. - The mining production cycle is lengthy, and even with high prices stimulating new capacity, it will take time for new production to come online [8]. - The demand for lithium is significantly driven by the energy storage sector, which is expected to grow by 60% in 2026 due to supportive policies [9]. - Companies like Zhongmin Resources are well-positioned in the lithium sector, with expected production capacity reaching 80,000 tons by 2026 and a market valuation potentially reaching 100 billion yuan [15][17]. - Recommended investment targets include Zhongmin Resources for lithium, and Liqin Resources and Huayou Cobalt for nickel and cobalt, due to their advantageous positions in the market [17][18].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the lithium carbonate market, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, particularly in the lithium battery sector. The overall sentiment in the industry remains optimistic regarding future price trends, with expectations for lithium prices to potentially exceed 200,000 [1][2][6]. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - **Supply Constraints**: The expectation for the resumption of production in Ningde has been repeatedly delayed, exacerbating supply tightness. The overall annual supply growth aligns with expectations, but the delays have reinforced a tight supply situation [2][5]. - **Demand Drivers**: The demand for lithium batteries is bolstered by several factors, including the replacement of old vehicles, increased battery capacity, and the electrification of commercial vehicles. Additionally, the energy storage market is supported by government initiatives and the expansion of AI data [1][3][4]. Price Trends - **Current Pricing**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen above 150,000, with some reports indicating prices have even surpassed 170,000. The industry remains optimistic about future price movements, anticipating a potential breakthrough of 200,000 [6][2]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The basic supply-demand fundamentals are clear, with an upward trend in prices expected. The anticipated price increase is necessary to incentivize capital expenditures to meet future demand growth, which is projected to remain above 15% annually [6][4]. Capital Expenditure and Investment Opportunities - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: The capital expenditure cycle is expected to show low growth rates from 2026 to 2027, which may limit direct supply growth. Most new projects are still in the planning stages due to previous funding or regulatory issues [5][6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Tianhua New Energy, Daqo New Energy, and others are highlighted as having significant elasticity in the second wave of beta market trends. The overall sector is viewed favorably for potential investment opportunities [8][9]. Nickel Market Insights - The nickel market is currently at historical lows, significantly influenced by Indonesian policies. The profitability of companies in this sector is expected to improve as nickel prices rise, making it an attractive investment area [9]. Industry Challenges - **Cost Pressures**: The rapid increase in resource prices is affecting the cost structure of the lithium battery supply chain. However, the impact on demand is expected to be manageable, with only a slight increase in costs translating to a minor effect on internal rates of return (IR) [10][12]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical uncertainties and global resource protectionism are expected to continue influencing supply dynamics, making it difficult for prices to decline significantly [5][6]. Technological Developments - **Emerging Technologies**: Solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries are gaining attention as potential future market leaders. The development of these technologies is expected to accelerate, particularly in high lithium price environments [16][17]. Market Valuation - The current valuation of the lithium battery supply chain is seen as an attractive entry point for investors, with various segments showing different price-to-earnings ratios. The battery segment is projected to have a PE ratio of around 16-17, while lithium materials are around 8-10 [15]. Conclusion - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by strong demand and constrained supply, leading to optimistic price forecasts. Investment opportunities exist within the sector, particularly for companies positioned to benefit from rising prices and technological advancements. The nickel market also presents potential for growth, while challenges related to cost pressures and geopolitical factors remain relevant.

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Indonesia's policy uncertainties, including nickel ore quota adjustments, consideration of taxing associated minerals, and fines for illegal mining, have led to a divergence in market expectations between the secondary market and the industry. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will also be affected by these factors, with a wide - range of fluctuations in the short - term [4][8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices. Polysilicon is expected to see a boost in market sentiment next Tuesday, with a supply - demand situation of weak supply and strong demand. It is not recommended to participate in futures directly, but options can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are strong, and the spot purchase intention is increasing. The short - term downside space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [52][55]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in a bottom - range oscillation. A clearer buying opportunity is expected in February - March. Soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [79][80][84]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: After the market has digested the negative factors, soybean meal prices may rebound at low levels. Soybean No.1 spot prices are stable and strong, and futures prices will follow the market sentiment [94][99]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with limited downward adjustment space before the Spring Festival [113][118]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, sugar prices are in a low - level consolidation. Domestically, the market maintains a weak basis expectation, and it is necessary to pay attention to import policy changes [136][138][164]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton lacks fundamental drivers, and domestic cotton prices continue to adjust. It is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to trade based on demand [165][180]. - **Pigs**: Pig spot prices will fluctuate and adjust, and the futures market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage. Attention should be paid to the trading of off - season expectations after the Spring Festival [181][182][183]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices are in a pattern of weak peak - season performance. Futures prices are weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [197][198]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Nickel prices fluctuate widely, and stainless steel prices are affected by nickel - related factors and show wide - range fluctuations [7][8][9]. - **Inventory**: Refined nickel inventory in China decreased slightly, while LME nickel inventory increased. The inventory of the nickel - stainless steel industry chain decreased [10]. - **Market News**: Indonesia has introduced a series of policies, including restricting new smelting licenses, adjusting nickel ore quotas, and considering taxing associated minerals [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon prices fell from high levels, and polysilicon prices fluctuated within a range [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon supply decreased marginally, and demand was weak. Polysilicon supply decreased, and demand increased [30][31][32]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon inventory increased, and polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate [30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures prices first rose and then fell, and spot prices increased [52]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: High lithium prices may lead to the resumption of overseas lithium mines. Demand is strong in the off - season, and inventory has decreased [53][54]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Palm oil prices fluctuated, and soybean oil prices were in a range - bound operation [79][84]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Palm oil production in Malaysia may decrease in January, and Indonesia's B50 policy is uncertain. Soybean oil is affected by the US biodiesel policy and South American soybean production [80][83]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Price Trends**: Soybean meal prices were weak, and soybean No.1 prices oscillated [94]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: China's continuous purchase of US soybeans has a positive impact, while the USDA report has a short - term negative impact. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased, and spot prices are stable [94][97]. Corn - **Price Trends**: Spot and futures prices both increased [113][114]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices were stable, and corn starch inventory decreased [115][116][117]. Sugar - **Price Trends**: Internationally, New York raw sugar prices increased slightly. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices decreased slightly [136][137]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's production increased slightly, India's production increased significantly, and Thailand's production decreased [154][155]. Cotton - **Price Trends**: ICE cotton prices first rose and then fell, and domestic cotton prices continued to adjust [165][168]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The USDA report adjusted the US and global cotton balances. Domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is in the off - season [169][174]. Pigs - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were strong, and futures prices fluctuated strongly [181]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is tight, and demand is stable. The market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage [181][182]. Peanuts - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell [197]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. The inventory pressure may be postponed to after the Spring Festival [197][198].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For the nickel market, the tightening expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has led to a significant increase in nickel prices. However, due to high short - term inventories and increased production of wet - process nickel, the price may show a "volatile upward + repeated game" trend. For the stainless - steel market, prices are likely to continue wide - range volatility. After the digestion of policy expectations, weak fundamentals in demand and high inventory pressure may lead to a price correction [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 15, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 143,000 yuan/ton and closed at 146,750 yuan/ton, a 4.08% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,738,133 (+667,439) lots, and the open interest was 101,617 (-8,358) lots. The price showed a pattern of "rushing high and then falling back + wide - range shock", driven by the expectation of tightened nickel ore quotas in Indonesia. The People's Bank of China's policy of lowering interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools also supported the non - ferrous metal sector [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was generally stable. Indonesia's official benchmark price for the second half of January was raised as expected, supporting market sentiment. Mines maintained firm quotes, but there were no new public tenders or transactions. The market was in an adaptation period after the price change, and trading was light [2]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 153,300 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were stable or slightly down. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 41,972 (1,700) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 285,282 (624) tons [2]. Strategy - If Indonesia's quota policy is strictly implemented, it will gradually affect nickel ore supply and support prices. In the short term, due to high inventories and increased production of wet - process nickel, prices may show a "volatile upward + repeated game" trend. The recommended strategy is to mainly conduct range operations and go long on dips [1][3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 15, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 13,985 yuan/ton and closed at 14,415 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 489,832 (+275,816) lots, and the open interest was 145,444 (-4,171) lots. The price showed a "rushing high and then falling back + wide - range shock" pattern, driven by the expectation of reduced nickel ore quotas in Indonesia. There was a game between cost - side drivers and weak demand and inventory pressure, and capital games intensified [3][5]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, spot prices continued to rise, but downstream acceptance was low, and trading was light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,350 (+450) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,300 (+500) yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 30.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,012.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - Prices may continue wide - range volatility. After the digestion of policy expectations, weak demand fundamentals and high inventory pressure may lead to a price correction. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, avoid chasing high prices, and consider going long on dips. The unilateral strategy is neutral [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in nickel prices is primarily driven by the tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, which has led to expectations of a global supply shortage [2][8]. Group 1: Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the main nickel futures contract opened at 143,000 CNY/ton and closed at 146,750 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 4.08% from the previous trading day [2][8]. - The trading volume for the day was 1,738,133 contracts, an increase of 667,439 contracts, while the open interest decreased by 8,358 contracts to 101,617 [2][8]. - The price surge was influenced by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy's announcement of a 34% reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026 compared to 2025, which is expected to tighten global nickel supply [2][8]. Group 2: Nickel Ore Market - The nickel ore market is currently stable, with the official benchmark price in Indonesia being raised, which supports market sentiment [3][9]. - The benchmark price for 1.6% grade nickel ore has been increased to 29.04 USD/wet ton, significantly higher than the previous half-month [9]. - The current trading atmosphere is relatively quiet, with market participants mainly executing prior orders rather than engaging in new transactions [9]. Group 3: Spot Market - The sales price of nickel from Jinchuan Group in Shanghai is 153,300 CNY/ton, up by 3,000 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [4][9]. - The trading of refined nickel in the spot market is generally moderate, with varying premiums for different brands [4][9]. - The previous day's warehouse receipts for nickel in Shanghai were 41,972 tons, while LME nickel inventory stood at 285,282 tons [4][9]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - If Indonesia's quota policy is strictly enforced, it will gradually impact nickel ore supply and support prices; however, high short-term inventories and increased production of hydrometallurgical nickel may lead to a "volatile upward trend with repeated negotiations" in prices [5][10]. - The strategy suggests focusing on range trading, with opportunities to buy on dips [10].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.55%, down 149 points, closing at 26,850 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.83% [1] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 163.9 billion in the morning session [1] Company Highlights - Jiexin International Resources (03858) rose over 5%, reaching a new high as black tungsten ore prices surpassed 500,000 yuan, prompting several tungsten companies to raise long-term contract prices [1] - Likin Resources (02245) increased by over 10% due to disruptions in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, while Zhongwei New Materials (02579) gained over 9% [1] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) experienced significant volatility, rising by 8% after announcing the termination of its spin-off listing plan and plans to rename itself "Rare Earth Gold" [1] - Ocean Park Hong Kong (02255) surged over 10%, with visitor numbers on the first day of the New Year holiday increasing by 60% year-on-year [1] - Zhipu (02513) rose over 4% after announcing a collaboration with Huawei to open-source a new generation image generation model [1] - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) increased by over 4%, anticipating a potential global urea supply shortage, and has been actively repurchasing shares [1] - Woan Robotics (06600) gained over 7% following the release of its humanoid intelligent robot, Onero [1] - Jiantao Laminates (01888) saw a nearly 6% increase after announcing a price hike, which is expected to become a trend in the copper-clad laminate industry [1] - Qiu Tai Technology (01478) declined over 7% as Citigroup reported that the company's net profit last year fell below expectations [1] Other Notable Movements - Kanglong Chemical (03759) dropped over 5% after announcing a placement of shares at an 8.5% discount, aiming to raise nearly HKD 1.32 billion [2] - Trip.com Group (09961) plummeted over 19% due to an investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for alleged monopoly practices, while Same City Travel (00780) fell over 11% [2]