贸易形势变化超预期，地缘政治风险，非系统风险导致局部领域压力被放大。 报告正文 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产小幅走弱，建筑业开工边际改善，货运量有所回升。 【工业生产】工业生产小幅走弱。 本周，高炉开工小幅回落，同比-0.2pct至4.7%。化工链中PTA和涤纶 长丝开工均有下行，同比分别-0.2、-1.2pct至5%、3.6%。汽车半钢胎开工连续两周回落，同比-2.8pct 至-2.1%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工边际改善。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率边际改善，同比分别+1.1pct 至0.8%、+0.8pct至-2%。沥青开工率同比也有上行，较前周+2.3pct至-1.2%。 【下游需求】全国新房成交降幅较大，货物运输强度有所回升。 本周，全国新房成交同比-24.2pct 至-22%；其中一线、二线、三线城市成交均有走弱。物流表现有所好转，公路货车通行量同比+3.2pct至 2.6%；与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量同比分别+8.7pct至5.1%、+9.2pct至10.3%。人流强 度也有回升 ...

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [3] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that due to the slow recovery of downstream real estate and deep - processing demand, insufficient restocking strength and sustainability, the market is pessimistic about the long - term demand for glass. Under the expectation of oversupply, there is limited upward space for glass. Considering the price expectation suppression by the near - end delivery game, it is expected that glass will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [3] Group 3 Summary of key points from the content - On April 18, 2025, the glass futures price continued to decline. The main contract 2509 closed at 1122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.43%, with a trading volume of 2.0403 million lots and active trading on the disk [3] - In terms of supply, glass production was flat month - on - month, the profit of glass enterprises improved slightly, and the enterprise start - up rate and capacity utilization rate rebounded [3] - In terms of demand, the orders of downstream glass deep - processing sample enterprises improved month - on - month but declined significantly year - on - year. The market speculation willingness was weak, and traders and end - users were cautious, resulting in a continuous weakening of production and sales and obvious price - for - volume situations [3] - In terms of inventory, according to Longzhong Information, the inventory of glass enterprises decreased slightly week - on - week, and the de - stocking speed slowed down significantly. Meanwhile, the high inventory in the middle reaches continued to suppress the rebound height [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in real estate data from the National Bureau of Statistics, emphasizing the importance of stable real estate policy expectations [5][21]. - Cement prices have slightly decreased, while glass inventory remains stable month-on-month [7][24]. - There is a focus on infrastructure and existing stock chains under the expectation of increased domestic demand, with investment opportunities in Africa being highlighted [9]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - In March, the year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales was 2.1% in terms of value and 3.0% in terms of area, with a smaller decline of 1.6% in value and 0.9% in area for March alone [5][6]. - The price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively in March, with first-tier cities showing slight increases [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 24.4% year-on-year decline in new construction area, which narrowed to an 18.1% decline in March [6]. Cement Market - The national cement market price decreased, with a current average of 397.74 yuan/ton, down 3.55 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 35.65 yuan/ton year-on-year [25]. - The cement output rate in key regions was 48.5%, showing a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of about 2.0% [7][24]. - Cement production in the first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, with a 2.5% increase in March [6]. Glass Market - The average price of glass was 74.99 yuan per weight box, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.28 yuan [45]. - The total inventory of glass in monitored provinces was 5,624 million weight boxes, showing a slight increase from the previous week [44][45]. - The production capacity of float glass increased slightly, with 286 production lines and a daily melting capacity of 158,505 tons [44]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China Liansu in the infrastructure chain, highlighting the potential for improved net profit due to lower coal costs [9]. - In the existing stock demand, companies like Sanke Tree and Beixin Building Materials are favored for their growth potential and low valuations [9]. - The report also points to investment opportunities in Africa, particularly in Keda Manufacturing, which has shown strong performance in overseas markets [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Recommended" [3][38]. Core Views - The impact of the tariff policy on the building materials industry is limited, and the real estate sector is expected to drive domestic demand, leading to industry valuation recovery [5][38]. - In March 2025, the average cement shipment rate increased by approximately 26 percentage points month-on-month and 8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating seasonal recovery in demand [16][38]. - The glass industry is experiencing slow demand recovery, with overall market prices expected to remain weak in April 2025 [39][40]. - The fiberglass sector is seeing strong demand from wind power and new energy vehicles, with the tariff policy having a limited impact on the industry [30][31][38]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - In March 2025, the national cement production reached 158 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, showing better-than-expected performance [10]. - The average price of cement in March 2025 was 394.92 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan from February [16][38]. - Key stocks to watch include Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ), Huaxin Cement (600801.SH), and Conch Cement (600585.SH) [16][38]. Glass Industry - The flat glass production in the first quarter of 2025 was 234 million weight boxes, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [23]. - The overall market demand is expected to improve in April, but the growth pace remains slow [39][40]. - Key stocks to consider are Qibin Group (601636.SH) and Jinjing Technology (600586.SH) [39][40]. Fiberglass Industry - The fiberglass industry is experiencing a slight increase in PPI, with strong demand from the wind power and new energy vehicle sectors [30][31]. - The tariff policy has a limited impact on the fiberglass and products industry, with a focus on expanding domestic markets [31][38]. - Key stocks to monitor include China Jushi (600176.SH) and Zhongcai Technology (002080.SZ) [31][38]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is expected to benefit from real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with limited impact from the tariff policy [9][40]. - Key stocks to focus on include Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), and Dongfang Yuhong (002271.SZ) [9][40].

月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房、车销售走弱，服务消费表现分化。 ①房地产、汽车销售均回落，家电销售均价下行。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房销量增速也有回落，3月 70城新房、二手房价格各线城市同比降幅继续收窄。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速由升转降，批发有所回升， 家电价格下行。 ②随着天气转暖，室外游玩需求增多，本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流量双双转升。不过，电影市场 表现仍旧惨淡，上周电影票房位于历年同期低位，同时上周酒店入住率和可售房间均价双双下行，均不及去年 同期。 外需： 出口数量下行，美计划对中国船舶加征港口费。 核 心 内 容 ①4月关税影响或初步显现，集装箱吞吐量和离港船只载重等出口数量指标有所下行，但考虑到关税政策朝令 夕改，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢出口需求。 ②美计划对所有停靠在美的中国制造船舶根据所载货物量收取费用，具体行动将分半年后和三年后两个阶段执 行。 生产： 制造业或延续"抢出口"，传统基建恢复仍缓。 ①本周制造业用工量价双双季节性回升，但同比超过去年同期，或反映出制造企业"抢出口"趋势仍在延续。 ②本周螺纹钢产量增速转降，库存低位续降，价格继续 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the impact of the US tariff increase on the building materials sector, suggesting a focus on domestic demand and potential recovery of oversold stocks [5][6] - Cement shipments are showing continuous recovery, while glass inventory continues to decline, indicating a positive trend in the market [6][7] - The report highlights the importance of infrastructure chains under the expectation of increased domestic demand, recommending companies like China Liansu, Huaxin Cement, and Anhui Conch Cement [5][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Basic Situation - Cement: After the Qingming Festival, the national cement enterprise shipment rate is approximately 48%, a 1 percentage point increase month-on-month but a 3 percentage point decrease year-on-year. The national cement price has decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [6][25] - Glass: The price of float glass has seen slight increases, with overall inventory continuing to decline. The production capacity remains stable, and the supply-demand structure is near balance [7][37] Infrastructure and Stock Chains - The report stresses the need to focus on infrastructure chains due to trade friction, recommending companies with strong fundamentals such as Huaxin Cement and Anhui Conch Cement. The demand for building materials is expected to improve in 2025, particularly in the second-hand housing market [5][8] Fiberglass and Wind Power Chains - The fiberglass sector is benefiting from the demand for wind power and thermoplastics, with significant profit growth expected in the first quarter. Companies like China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology are highlighted as key players [8][45]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Building Materials Industry Q1 2025 Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the building materials industry, particularly focusing on the consumption building materials sector in Q1 2025, highlighting various sub-sectors such as waterproofing, gypsum board, coatings, cement, glass, and photovoltaic glass [2][3][4][5][6][10][11][12]. Key Points and Arguments General Market Conditions - In Q1 2025, the consumption building materials industry showed stable B-end demand, with significant central government leverage and verified demand for key projects. However, C-end demand is expected to have limited growth due to high base effects from previous years [2][3][8]. - Municipal infrastructure is under pressure from local debt, but the low base from 2024 supports decent performance in engineering [2][3]. Sub-sector Performance - **Waterproofing Industry**: Revenue faced pressure due to price declines, but high-end products saw significant price increases. The strategy focuses on controlling channel inventory, with potential recovery in profitability if asphalt prices stabilize [3][4][9]. - **Gypsum Board Industry**: The sector performed well with low channel inventory, leading to expected sales growth. Despite a year-on-year price decline, lower costs for paper and coal helped maintain profitability [5][9]. - **Coatings Industry**: Major C-end companies achieved double-digit growth, while B-end remained stable. Some companies expanded channels to drive growth, resulting in a relatively strong overall performance [6][9]. - **Cement Industry**: Price increases in East China were successful, with prices higher than the previous year. Despite a projected demand decline of 5-10%, supply-side inventory levels are reasonable, maintaining profitability [10][14]. - **Glass Industry**: The sector faced significant average losses due to overcapacity and price corrections. Short-term recovery is unlikely without improvements in supply-demand dynamics [11]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Industry**: The first quarter exceeded expectations due to strong demand and price increases. However, concerns exist for Q3 as demand may decline [12][13]. Financial and Strategic Insights - The overall logic for the consumption building materials industry in 2025 indicates no expected volume growth, leading to reduced competition in price wars and lower management and sales expenses. This shift is anticipated to enhance net profit margins despite stagnant volume [8]. - Companies are advised to focus on product differentiation and high-end product pressures while monitoring export impacts on low-end product pricing [15]. Additional Important Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a transition with a focus on managing costs and inventory levels, which may lead to improved profitability despite lower sales volumes [8][9]. - The performance of various sub-sectors reflects a mixed outlook, with some areas showing resilience while others face challenges due to market conditions and external pressures [3][4][5][6][10][11][12][14].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" outlook for the building materials industry in Q1 2025, indicating a rebound after a prolonged downturn [2][3]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is transitioning from a focus on "volume and cost" to "price and profit," with expectations of recovery in Q1 2025 after nearly four years of decline [3]. - The report highlights that various products in the industry have begun to see price increases, suggesting the end of aggressive price competition and a return to rational pricing strategies [3]. - Specific segments such as cement, fiberglass, and consumer building materials are expected to show significant performance improvements in Q1 2025 [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Cement - The average price of cement in Q1 2025 is projected to be 401 RMB/ton, a year-on-year increase of 37 RMB/ton, while the cost of coal has decreased significantly [3]. - Cement production in January-February 2025 was 170 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 5.7%, but the decline is narrowing compared to 2024 [3]. - Major companies like Conch Cement are expected to see a net profit increase of around 20% in Q1 2025 [4]. Fiberglass - Price increases for various fiberglass products are being implemented, with the average price for non-alkali direct yarn expected to reach 3888 RMB/ton, a year-on-year increase of 711.1 RMB/ton [3]. - China Jushi is projected to see a significant profit recovery, with a net profit forecast of 7.1-7.6 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 320-350% [3]. Consumer Building Materials - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, which may stabilize demand for consumer building materials [3]. - The report anticipates improvements in revenue and profit for companies in this segment in Q1 2025 [3]. Glass - Photovoltaic glass prices have increased due to demand, while flat glass prices remain under pressure [3]. - The average price for photovoltaic glass has risen from 12 RMB/sqm to 14.25 RMB/sqm in early April 2025 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and China Jushi for potential investment opportunities in Q1 2025 [3]. - Other recommended companies include North New Building Materials, Rabbit Baby, and Weixing New Materials in the consumer building materials sector [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the construction and building materials sector, emphasizing its resilience to tariffs and trade wars due to its reliance on domestic demand [2][3]. Core Insights - The construction and building materials sector is expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus aimed at domestic consumption and infrastructure projects, making it a key investment focus [3][6]. - Supply-side reforms are likely to favor sectors such as cement, fiberglass, and steel, which are positioned to benefit from reduced competition and improved profitability [3][8]. - Defensive stocks with high cash flow, high ROE, and high dividend yields are highlighted as valuable during market volatility, particularly cement and state-owned enterprises [3][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities Post-Tariff - The construction and building materials sector remains attractive post-tariff due to its focus on domestic demand and local operations, making it less vulnerable to external shocks [2][3]. - Key beneficiaries include sectors directly impacted by fiscal policies, such as cement and consumer building materials [3][8]. Demand Factors for Building Materials - There are clear demand drivers for building materials, particularly from infrastructure projects and consumer home improvements, indicating a stable outlook for both B-end and C-end demand [6][17]. Sector Selection Strategy - The report suggests a balanced approach between defensive cement stocks and more aggressive consumer building materials, with a preference for companies like Three Trees and North New Materials [4][7]. Cement Industry Outlook - The cement sector is projected to see improved demand driven by fiscal stimulus, with expectations for a stable or improving national cement shipment rate [10][13]. - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming demand season [10][13]. Glass Industry Forecast - The glass sector faces challenges due to declining construction-related demand, but low export exposure and potential rebounds in the second half of the year are noted [11][13]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are highlighted for their resilience and dividend yield, making them suitable for investment [11][13]. Fiberglass Sector Analysis - The fiberglass industry is less affected by tariffs due to low export ratios, with strong domestic demand in wind energy and thermoplastics providing a buffer [12][13]. - China Jushi is identified as a key player with a strong position in North America and Europe, mitigating tariff impacts [12][13]. Consumer Building Materials Market - The consumer building materials market is experiencing a decline in demand for waterproof materials, while gypsum board demand remains stable [17][19]. - Companies like North New Materials and Three Trees are noted for their strong performance and strategic pricing approaches [19][20]. Future Demand Drivers - Future demand in the consumer building materials sector is expected to be driven by infrastructure and home renovation projects, with Three Trees positioned for aggressive growth [24].

研究报告 玻璃月报 预计 4 月玻璃期价将低位运行 后市展望：3 月整体市场仍处于偏弱格局，且生产端暂无冷修计划， 行业库存累增，中下游提货意愿较弱，出货偏慢，平板玻璃市场弱势运行； 预计 4 月玻璃产线冷修计划和复产点火计划体量或将变化不大，需求预计 改善空间有限，预计 4 月玻璃期价将低位运行。 交易策略：建议观望 【投资评级：★】 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：3 月玻璃 2509 合约下跌 7.21% 基本面：据国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 2 月我国平板玻璃产量为 15,173 万重量箱， ...