Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant turmoil in global financial markets, driven by political statements, Federal Reserve dynamics, and economic data, indicating a potential shift away from the dollar's dominance and the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing interest rates and inflation. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is facing a critical moment with a 96.9% probability of maintaining interest rates in July and a 62.6% expectation of a rate cut in September [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, with members split into three camps regarding interest rate policy, reflecting differing views on inflation and economic conditions [4] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged with a 9:2 vote, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members opposed the mainstream decision [7] Group 2: Market Reactions - Trump's call for an immediate 300 basis point rate cut led to panic in the markets, with gold prices surging by $20 and the dollar index dropping by 25 points [3] - Following Trump's retraction of his dismissal threat against Powell, market volatility persisted, indicating a fragile confidence in the Federal Reserve's independence [3] - The bond market reacted sharply, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, signaling the onset of a "long-term high interest rate era" [6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, exceeding expectations, but analysts pointed out that the actual growth rate, after adjusting for imports and inventory changes, was only 1.14% [8] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, driven in part by tariffs [4] Group 4: Commodity Market Movements - Gold futures prices reached a historic peak of $3444 per ounce, while silver prices also surged, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid market uncertainty [7] - Contrastingly, the Chinese gold market experienced a decline, with significant drops in retail gold prices, indicating divergent market behaviors between East and West [7]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In July, the total issuance scale of offshore Chinese bonds was approximately $22.5 billion, reflecting a 10% month-on-month decline, with significant contributions from various sectors including real estate and local government financing [2][3]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The actual total issuance scale of offshore Chinese bonds, excluding the restructuring bonds from Shimao Group, was $15.7 billion in July [3]. - The issuance of offshore RMB-denominated bonds amounted to about $5.1 billion, while USD-denominated bonds reached approximately $13.3 billion, with an average financing cost of 5.25% for fixed-rate bonds [5]. - The issuance of offshore Euro-denominated bonds surged to about $2.1 billion, with notable contributions from China Development Bank and Bright Food International [5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Excluding sovereign and government bonds, 72 Chinese enterprises issued 97 offshore bonds totaling $20.1 billion in July, with the average bond size increasing to $2.07 million [7]. - The real estate sector's issuance, excluding Shimao Group's restructuring bonds, was $0.8 billion, primarily from Hong Kong enterprises [10]. - Local government financing platforms saw a significant increase, with 49 platforms issuing 55 offshore bonds totaling $6 billion, marking an 89% month-on-month growth [10]. Group 3: Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector's issuance decreased by 32% to approximately $4.2 billion, with 11 financial institutions issuing 20 offshore bonds [15]. - Notably, China Development Bank successfully issued dual-currency bonds in the international market, achieving a record subscription rate [15]. - The issuance of sustainable development bonds by various enterprises, including Zhengzhou Urban Construction and Jiangxi Jiulong Group, highlighted the growing trend towards sustainable financing [11][12]. Group 4: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The net financing amount for the real estate sector turned positive for the first time this year, reaching approximately $15.2 billion in July, largely due to Shimao Group's debt restructuring [18]. - Central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, maintained interest rates, influencing market expectations and bond issuance strategies [21]. - Positive developments in the real estate sector were noted, with several companies successfully restructuring debts and obtaining financing [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of measures by Yunnan Province to promote "travel talent" and enhance the tourism industry through innovative and diversified offerings [1][2][3] - Yunnan aims to establish "travel talent" stations and databases to facilitate the connection and collaboration of local talent resources [1] - The measures include encouraging the establishment of social organizations by "travel talent" for self-management and service [1] Group 2 - The report highlights the need for Yunnan to innovate and differentiate its tourism products, which have primarily focused on cultural sightseeing, leading to a lack of high-quality experiential offerings [2] - The "travel talent" initiative is expected to significantly increase local spending, with data showing that travel guests spend approximately 40% on dining and 30% on accommodation, compared to only 30% on dining in traditional tourism [2] - A survey indicates that about 60% of travelers are aged between 20 and 40, with 13% preferring rural areas as their travel destination, bringing valuable resources to local communities [2] Group 3 - Yunnan will support various promotional activities to attract more "travel talent" through networking and collaboration [3] - The province plans to utilize idle rural housing and urban residential assets to create accommodations for "travel talent," encouraging local policies to attract long-term residents [5] - The target for travel residents in Yunnan is set at 600 million by 2025, with a current achievement of 280.3 million in the first half of the year, reflecting a 45.4% year-on-year increase [5]

美股下跌，纳斯达克中国科技股与恒生指数下跌。 过去一周（20250728-20250803），纳斯达克、标普500指数与道琼斯工业平均指数分别变 化-2.17%、-2.36%与-2.92%，纳斯达克中国科技股指数变化-3.20%；同时期恒生指数变化-3.47%。 A股大多数板块下跌，成长、蓝筹均下跌。 过去一周（20250728-20250803）wind全A指数下跌1.09%，中证A100、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、 中证2000与wind微盘股分别变化-2.15%、-1.75%、-1.37%、-0.54%、-0.01%与1.09%。 从板块风格看，沪市中蓝筹、成长均下跌：上证50与科创板50分别变化-1.48%与-1.65%；深市蓝筹、成 长同样均下跌：深证100与创业板指数分别变化-2.03%与-0.74%；北证50指数变化-2.70%。 大多数行业下跌，通信与创新药领涨。 来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：上海证券研究） ■ 主要观点 从行业表现看，30个中信行业24个行业下跌，6个行业上涨。领涨的行业为通信与医药行业，周涨幅大 于2%。 从ETF表现来看，通信、创新药、人工智能等表现较好，周涨 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has been reaching historical highs, with the S&P 500 index hitting new records, while the Shanghai Composite Index also surpassed 3600 points, marking its annual peak [1] - Major international investment banks have issued warnings regarding the increasing risks in the U.S. stock market, with Goldman Sachs noting that speculative sentiment indicators have surged to historical highs, second only to the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [1] - Deutsche Bank highlighted that margin debt has reached a historic high, exceeding $1 trillion in June, indicating a heated borrowing environment for stock trading [1] Group 2 - Bank of America analyst Hartnett reiterated the risks of a bubble, attributing it to loose monetary policies and relaxed financial regulations, stating that increased retail participation leads to greater liquidity and volatility, thus amplifying bubble risks [1] - The potential for the U.S. bull market to continue may hinge on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with recent pressures from former President Trump on the Fed to lower rates [1] - Goldman Sachs economists have revised their predictions, suggesting a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut in September, which could significantly influence global market trends [2] Group 3 - Political changes in Japan, particularly the recent electoral defeat of the ruling coalition, have led to a decline in support for Prime Minister Kishida, impacting the yen and Japanese stock market [3] - The internal accountability calls within the ruling party continue to grow, with potential leadership changes expected following the upcoming extraordinary Diet session [4]

数据周报80（2025年7月28日-8月3日） 1.美国6月关税收入同比上涨320% 2.如何看待美国非农数据的大幅修正？ 3.国债恢复增收增值税有什么影响？ 4.中国离结比将上升至历史最高水平 5.下半年通胀会出现大幅反弹吗？ 6.宏观债务杠杆率首次突破300% 7.如何看待美国最新的"对等关税"？ 从数据层面观察，特朗普本轮贸易战可以说是已 "初见成效"。据智本社数据中心统计，2025 年 6 月美国商品贸易逆差显著收窄至 868 亿美元，较上月减 少 67 亿美元，较 2024 年同期减少 53 亿美元，这一表现明显超市场预期，展现出贸易失衡状况有所改善。 与此同时，美国进口商 6 月支付的关税收入持续攀升，单月已突破 266 亿美元，较上月增加 45 亿美元，较 2024 年同期更是激增 203 亿美元。 以当前数据趋势推算，未来关税每年将为美国带来超过 2000 亿美元的巨额财政收入。特朗普政府的政策是对外征税，对内减税。结合美国当前的财政状 况来看，这一重要收入来源对政府财政的支撑作用显著，未来无论哪一届政府，恐怕都难以轻易放弃。 2.如何看待美国非农数据的大幅修正？ 正文 1.美国6月关税收入同 ...

来源：金融界 2025年8月4日，上海清算所网站披露公告，新城控股集团股份有限公司于2025年7月31日至8月1日发行 2025年度第一期中期票据（中市协注[2025]MTN402号） ，债券简称25新城控股MTN001 ，期限5年期 ，起息日2025年8月4日 ，兑付日2030年8月4日 ，计划发行总额100,000万元，实际发行总额100,000万元 ，发行利率2.68% ，发行价100（百元面值） 。合规申购家数10家，合规申购金额228,000万元 ，最高 申购价位3.5% ，最低申购价位2.5% ，有效申购家数4家，有效申购金额123,000万元 。簿记管理人、主 承销商为中信证券股份有限公司，联席主承销商为中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司、招商银行股份有限 公司。本期中期票据发行基础规模人民币0亿元，发行金额上限人民币10亿元，其中不超过5亿元募集资 金拟用于发行人及下属子公司补充流动资金，剩余募集资金拟用于普通商品房住宅项目开发建设、购回 及偿还发行人及发行人股东新城发展控股有限公司境外美元债券等法律法规允许的用途。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's July meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The Fed's view on economic growth has become more cautious, and concerns about future uncertainties have increased. There are significant internal differences within the Fed, but Powell is still very cautious about rate cuts, which require more reasons such as a further slowdown in the labor market [3][6][16]. - After the release of the Fed's decision, the price fluctuations of major asset classes were relatively small. The Fed has not been the core factor in market trading recently. The Fed's hawkish signals have led to a decline in market rate - cut expectations, a significant rebound in the US dollar index, a notable decline in precious metals, and a slight decline in US stocks [7][9]. - Although the US economic outlook has weakened, the economy remains resilient, especially the labor market. The possibility of a rate cut this year still exists, but more reasons are needed [10][16]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. US stocks are expected to continue the upward trend but with accumulating risks; the decline of long - term US Treasury yields is restricted; precious metals are in adjustment and need new driving factors; commodities are supported by trade and economic factors; the US dollar may be in a long - term downward cycle; and A - shares are expected to have long - term upward potential [17][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 July Fed Meeting Highlights - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two Fed governors opposing the decision and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Fed's view on the economy has become more cautious, and internal differences have increased. Powell needs to balance the differences among core members and the pressure from Trump. The Fed has not yet cut rates, but a policy inflection point may come if the economy cools or political pressure intensifies [3]. - The meeting did not provide economic forecasts or the dot - plot. Powell said that the overall impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation remains to be seen, and the Fed has not made a decision on September's monetary policy, which depends on employment and inflation data [4]. - The meeting continued the "wait - and - see" tone, did not give clear guidance on the rate - cut timing, and still faced the problem of balancing employment and inflation risks. Powell's speech sent a more hawkish signal to cool market rate - cut expectations [6]. 3.2 Price Movements of Major Asset Classes - After the Fed's decision, the price fluctuations of major asset classes were small. US stocks declined slightly, with the S&P 500 down 0.37%, the Dow Jones down 0.74%, and the Nasdaq down 0.03%. US Treasury yields rose, with the 10 - year yield up 5.16 basis points and the 2 - year yield up 6.56 basis points. The US dollar index rose about 0.9%. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.06%, and precious metals such as gold and platinum declined significantly [7][8][9]. 3.3 Outlook for the US Economy and Fed Monetary Policy - In July, the global trade situation eased, and the US economy remained strong with rising inflation data and increased global risk appetite. The US labor market was robust in June, with better - than - expected non - farm payrolls and a lower - than - expected unemployment rate. The CPI began to rebound under the influence of tariffs [10][11]. - Although the US economic outlook has weakened, the economy remains resilient, especially the labor market. The Fed is under pressure to cut rates, but Powell is cautious, and a rate cut requires more reasons, especially a slowdown in the labor market [16]. 3.4 Views on Subsequent Asset Movements - US stocks are expected to continue rising due to factors such as trade easing, positive fiscal policies, and the prosperity of emerging industries, but risks are accumulating [17]. - The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds has remained around 4.4% since the second quarter. The decline of long - term yields is restricted by the potential rise in long - term inflation [17]. - Precious metals' safe - haven and allocation values are strengthened by "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization," but they are in adjustment and need new driving factors. Silver is expected to follow gold's fluctuations [17]. - Commodities are supported by trade easing and the US economic resilience. A potential Fed rate cut and China's "anti - involution" policy may also provide upward momentum [17][18]. - The US dollar index rebounded significantly in July but may be in a long - term downward cycle. The RMB exchange rate has limited depreciation pressure and may enter an appreciation channel [18]. - A - shares are expected to have long - term upward potential. Although the current economic recovery momentum is not strong, there is room for valuation repair and an expected increase in corporate profits [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The path for the US to achieve multi - dimensional strategic goals through tariff policies is clear, using tariffs not only as a trade protection tool but also to serve broader economic and geopolitical interests [3][4][5]. - The poor non - farm payroll data has led to a sharp increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed's monetary policy decision is facing a dilemma [6][7][8]. - The July Politburo meeting in China adjusted the direction and intensity of economic policy stimulus, focusing on optimizing the economic structure and implementing effective policies [10][11][12]. - In terms of major asset directions, the US dollar is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, gold is supported by safe - haven sentiment, A - shares are expected to have accelerated sector rotation, and the bond market will focus on "new - old differentiation" [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 The Path for the US to Achieve Multi - Dimensional Strategic Goals with Tariffs is Clear - As the August 1 deadline for Trump's tariff policy approached, the US White House announced a series of adjusted "reciprocal tariffs" with most new rates taking effect on August 7, providing a negotiation window for countries without trade agreements [3]. - The US uses differentiated tariff policies to achieve goals such as obtaining large - scale investment, procurement commitments, and market opening from trading partners, and guiding the global industrial chain layout [4][5]. - The US uses tariff negotiations to force Southeast Asian countries to make "strategic choices" in the global supply chain, aiming to weaken their industrial chain connection with China [5]. 1.2 Non - farm Payrolls Disappoint, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Soar - Since April, the market's reaction to "reciprocal tariffs" has gradually diminished, and in August, the market's focus shifted to the Fed's rate - cut process [6]. - The sharp downward revision of non - farm payroll data on Friday led to a sharp increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the Fed's monetary policy decision is in a dilemma [6][7][8]. - Trump's acceptance of Fed Governor Kugler's resignation may further boost the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [9]. 1.3 The July Politburo Meeting: Optimize the Economic Structure and Implement Existing Policies - In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience, and the Politburo meeting adjusted the description of the economic situation and the direction of policy stimulus [10]. - In the second half of 2025, policies should maintain macro - policy continuity, "implement and refine" effective policies, and focus on structural and supply - side issues such as "anti - involution" on the supply side and "releasing consumption potential" on the demand side [11][12]. 1.4 Major Asset Directions - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term due to concerns about the US economic recession and increased expectations of a Fed rate cut [14][15]. - Gold is expected to be supported by safe - haven sentiment in the short term and is in a bull market cycle in the long term [15]. - A - shares are expected to have accelerated sector rotation, and the valuation center is expected to rise due to policy and tax factors [15][16]. - The bond market will focus on "new - old differentiation" in the short term due to the tax policy change [16]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, and promoting domestic and international double - circulation [17]. - The decision to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October was made, and it will study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan [17]. - The interest income of newly - issued bonds will be subject to VAT starting from August 8, 2025 [17]. - The parenting subsidy policy was implemented, and the budget was about 90 billion yuan [17]. - The manufacturing PMI in July declined, and the non - manufacturing and composite PMIs also decreased [17]. - From January to June 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.8%, with different trends in different industries [17]. - Policies were introduced to promote investment, consumption, and the development of various industries, and measures were taken to "anti - involute" the market [17][18]. - The China - US tariff suspension period is expected to be extended, and China's trade with Central and Eastern European countries reached a record high in the first half of the year [18]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - The Fed kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, but two voting members supported a rate cut, and Powell cooled market expectations of a September rate cut [19]. - US core PCE inflation heated up in June, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate exceeded expectations [19]. - The US made a series of tariff policy adjustments, including delaying the effective date, setting different tariff rates for different countries, and suspending the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods [20][21]. - The EU reached a trade agreement with the US, including a 15% tariff and a 60 - billion - dollar investment in the US [20]. - Other countries such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea also had important economic events and policy decisions [19][20][21]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - Next week, important economic data will be released in China, the US, and the eurozone, including PMI, PPI, CPI, and unemployment data [22].

Industry News - The implementation plan for the digital transformation of the machinery industry has been issued by eight departments, aiming to establish no less than 200 excellent smart factories by 2027, with 50% of enterprises achieving a maturity level of two or above in intelligent manufacturing capabilities [6] - The average commission rate for A-shares in Shanghai reached a new low of 0.201‰ in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [4] - New mandatory product certification rules for mobile power supplies, lithium-ion batteries, and battery packs will be implemented starting August 15, 2025 [4] Company News - China Shenhua announced plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire assets while raising matching funds, leading to a stock suspension starting August 4 [9] - Ideal Auto reported a significant increase in July deliveries, reaching 50,129 units, a year-on-year growth of 126.9%, while Xiaopeng Motors also saw a record high with 36,717 units delivered, up 229.45% year-on-year [6] - Hikvision disclosed its semi-annual report, showing a revenue of 41.818 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 1.48%, and a net profit of 5.657 billion yuan, up 11.71% [10] - Ninebot Company reported a revenue of 11.742 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 76.14%, with a net profit of 1.242 billion yuan, up 108.45% [10]