Core Viewpoint - The presence of floating fibrous materials, suspected to be glass fibers, in the air near a furniture factory in Kunming has raised concerns among local residents regarding potential health risks and environmental impact [1][8]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Residents reported seeing shiny, fibrous materials floating in the air near a furniture factory, which caused skin irritation [1][8]. - A factory worker confirmed the visibility of these fibrous materials under sunlight, describing them as needle-like and floating into the factory [5][6]. Group 2: Investigation and Findings - The local environmental authority conducted an investigation and found a small amount of suspected glass fiber material in the vicinity of the furniture factory [11]. - The preliminary investigation suggested that the suspected glass fibers originated from the nearby Yunnan Copper Zinc Industry Co., Ltd., which had ceased production and was undergoing equipment dismantling [13][14]. - Approximately 2.5 tons of dismantled waste glass fiber materials were found at the site, which were likely contributing to the airborne fibers [14]. Group 3: Environmental Measures - The environmental authority has mandated the responsible parties to properly dispose of the waste glass fiber materials to prevent further environmental impact [14]. - As of May 9, 2025, the waste glass fiber and debris have been cleared from the site, and measures to improve pollution prevention during dismantling processes have been requested [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the UK reducing tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports. The EU plans to sue the US at the WTO and impose countermeasures on $950 billion worth of US imports [1]. - The market risk sentiment has improved due to the potential first tariff trade agreement. However, concerns remain about the escalation of tariff scale and geopolitical conflicts [1][20]. - The central bank's monetary policy adjustments, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, are expected to support the market and maintain a loose liquidity environment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Key Varieties - **Alumina**: The night session of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.46%. Overseas, Trump's tariff stance is inconsistent; domestically, the monetary environment is loosening. Alumina prices are falling, and future supply and demand are expected to be loose. Short - term Shanghai aluminum may be weak and volatile [2][24]. - **Crude Oil**: SC night session rose 1.71%. US crude inventories decreased last week. Some US producers may cut spending, and US oil production may have peaked. Short - term oil prices are expected to decline, but low prices may provide room for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran [3][12]. - **Shipping**: EC opened low and rebounded, with the 06 contract down 3.64%. Shipping rates in May are mostly stable or slightly decreased. The supply of European routes is in excess due to the spill - over of US route capacity. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [4][35]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: US initial jobless claims last week decreased more than expected, indicating a stable labor market despite increasing tariff risks [5]. - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce's press conference highlighted China's foreign trade resilience. China is firm on tariff issues, opposes unilateralism, and promotes multilateral cooperation [6]. - **Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of the Private Enterprise Promotion Law by breaking barriers, expanding space, and optimizing services [7]. c. Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index increased, ICE Brent crude oil rose, while London gold and LME metals mostly fell [8]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes rose. A - shares also increased due to central bank policies. Short - term stock indexes may show a trend, and a wide - straddle option buying strategy is recommended [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations and policy adjustments have loosened market liquidity. The focus is on the progress of tariff negotiations [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: Methanol night session rose 0.14%. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and coastal methanol inventories decreased. Short - term methanol is expected to be bullish [13][14]. - **Rubber**: RU slightly declined. Domestic and Thai rubber production is expected to increase. Affected by US tariff policies, rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices were weak. Consumption has peaked, but cost fluctuations provide some support. Attention is paid to the implementation of stimulus policies [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures were weak, and soda ash futures fluctuated. Both are in a period of inventory digestion, and the process will take time [17]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are under pressure due to weak demand and limited cost support [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is facing pressure due to rising port inventories and limited downstream demand improvement [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined. The potential trade agreement has improved risk sentiment, but geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold purchases support gold prices. Gold may continue to be strong and consolidate [20][21]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. Low processing fees and stable domestic demand support copper prices. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. Domestic demand is stable, and the market expects an increase in supply. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose slightly. Tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia and downstream procurement demand support nickel prices, but stainless steel demand is average. Nickel prices may fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply decreased slightly, demand increased in March, and inventory increased. Upstream mine prices are weakening, and lithium prices may decline further [26][27]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by steel mill复产, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It may be supported in the short term and weak in the medium term [28]. - **Steel**: Steel supply is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Demand is expected to weaken due to the rainy season and overseas tariffs. Steel prices may be weak and volatile [29]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal prices were weak, affected by coke prices and increasing supply [30]. - **Coke**: Coke prices were weak, with the failure of the second - round price increase and the expected price cut. It is affected by steel demand [31]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Corn may correct in the short term. Supply is tight at high prices, and there are concerns about import reserve auctions. It should be treated cautiously bullish [32]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are volatile due to economic uncertainties. Zhengzhou cotton is also fluctuating, and the market is waiting for new demand channels [33]. - **Shipping Index**: The European container shipping market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to supply - demand imbalances and tariff policies [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agreement between the US and the UK on tariff trade has led to a rise in market risk appetite, with the gold price falling by over 2%, the US dollar index strengthening, and the US stock index futures showing a short - term risk preference recovery. However, tariff negotiations remain complex, and the long - term impact is uncertain [2][3][14][17]. - In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends. For example, the steel price continues to decline, the inventory of some metals and energy products shows changes, and the prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy [6][24][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement, reducing the US tariff on British - made cars to 10% and the beef tariff close to zero. The gold price fell by over 2%. In the short term, gold is under pressure, but the negotiation is complex, and there is still room for correction [14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations, and be aware of the short - term correction risk of gold [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The US and the UK reached the first trade agreement since the Trump tariff war, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a short - term rebound [15][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a major agreement with the UK. The US House of Representatives Committee will start deliberating on Trump's tax - cut plan next week. The short - term market risk preference recovers, but tariff negotiations tend to be long - term, and it is not recommended to chase high [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan. The current one - sided market opportunities are limited, and attention can be paid to various arbitrage strategies, such as the curve - steepening strategy. The opportunity to steepen the curve has initially emerged, and subsequent changes in capital interest rates should be continuously monitored [21][22][23]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of March 31, Canada's rapeseed ending inventory was 5.8694 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The oil market continued to fluctuate. The short - term palm oil price has reached the support level, and it is recommended to wait for the MPOB report data before operating [24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil announced the 25/26 sanitary interval schedule. The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. The domestic soybean meal futures price is expected to fluctuate, and the spot will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply and demand report on May 12 [25][27][28]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in April decreased by 17.65% year - on - year. In China, the sugar production in Guangxi increased, and the sales rate reached 63.96%, a 6 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The domestic sugar price has strong resistance to decline in the short term, but the external market is under pressure, and the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter of 2025. Attention should be paid to the sugar factory's inventory reduction progress [30][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprises continued to raise prices to promote purchases, but the effect was not good. The overseas cassava starch startup rate decreased seasonally. The CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [35][36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. It is recommended to hold the 07 long positions and pay attention to the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spread opportunities. If the import auction starts, focus on the transaction rate and price [38]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In April, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, and the national passenger - car market retail sales were 1.791 million vehicles. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 289,700 tons week - on - week. The steel price continued to decline, and the short - term downward space is difficult to open. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see in the short term, and use the rebound hedging strategy for the spot [39][40][41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - After the holiday, the port coal inventory was full, and the coal price may decline rapidly again. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the price can hold at the 600 - yuan level [43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - FMG's iron ore shipments in the first quarter of 2025 were 46.1 million tons. With the seasonal weakening of demand, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [44][45][46]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market was stable. During the May Day holiday, the supply of coking coal was sufficient, and the second round of coke price increase was postponed. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend, and in the long term, it will be weak [47][48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In April, the total actual output of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 181,500 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 24.34%. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations in the short term [48][49][50]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Several copper - related companies had acquisition and project progress. The UK - US trade agreement may increase market risk appetite and benefit the copper price. The domestic copper inventory continued to decline, supporting the price. It is recommended to conduct band operations in the short term and gradually stop profiting from the positive spread strategy [51][53][54]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Tongwei has no plan to destock through the polysilicon futures delivery. The 06 contract price rebounded after reaching a low point. It is expected that the polysilicon will continue to destock in May. Long positions and positive spreads can continue to be held [55][56][57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The organic silicon DMC price is expected to fluctuate. The demand for industrial silicon is weak, and it is recommended to partially stop profiting from previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown received 15 million Australian dollars in support from the Western Australian government, and BYD and Tsingshan Holdings withdrew from the Chilean lithium processing plant plan. In the long term, the lithium carbonate market is in surplus, and the cost support may move down. It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current point, and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities [59][60][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead ingot social inventory continued to increase. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [63][64][65]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American and Lundin Mining's zinc production increased in the first quarter of 2025. The zinc social inventory decreased slightly. The short - term zinc price is supported by low inventory and strong spot, but the medium - term demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and internal - external positive spread opportunities [66][67][68]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in an oscillating adjustment phase. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [74][75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. The PTA price is expected to be oscillatingly strong or continue to rebound in the short term [76][77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production increased this week. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future. The cost end drags down the price, and the downstream profit expansion space is limited [79][80][81]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On May 8, the caustic soda market in Shandong had an upward transaction, and the enterprise inventory was at a low level. The caustic soda spot price rebounded, but the overall commodity market is weak, and the caustic soda market is difficult to rise significantly [82][83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The short - term pulp market is expected to be oscillatingly weak [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased. Although the inventory is decreasing and the basis is strengthening, the market expects negative impacts from tariffs, and the PVC performance may continue to be weak [85]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips increased slightly in some areas. The supply pressure of bottle chips is increasing, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [86][87][88]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of May 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.74%. The soda ash futures price continued to fall, and the market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term and pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract [89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly this week. The glass price continued to fall, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The glass price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy variables [90][91]. 2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's EBIT in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.253 billion US dollars. Affected by the peace talks between the Houthi and the US, the European - line futures weakened. It is recommended to treat the market as a wide - range oscillation and wait and see in the short term [92].

有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 2025 年 5 月 7 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色分化，铝增仓下行明显 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 1. 产业动态 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价增仓上行，主力期价突破 7.8 万关口，今日铜价冲高回 落。短期铜价冲高回落，主力期价在 7.8 万一线仍有较强的技术压 力。产业层面，电解铜低库存格局给予近月较强的支撑，基差月差 持续走强。短期可持续关注 7.8 万关口多空博弈，也可关注月间正 套 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in graduate education at Anhui University of Technology (AHT) from traditional on-campus training to practical market-oriented training through collaboration with industry partners [1][3]. Group 1: Collaboration with Industry - AHT has established 21 provincial-level joint training bases with companies like Chery New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. and Guoxuan High-Tech Co., Ltd., employing 289 industry mentors [3]. - The university has implemented a dual-mentor system, enhancing the training of master's students by integrating theoretical and practical learning [3][4]. Group 2: Dual-Track Curriculum - AHT's dual-track curriculum includes both theoretical courses and practical industry-oriented courses, designed in collaboration with companies like Anhui Andekeming Electronic Materials Technology Co., Ltd. [4]. - Students are required to complete at least six months of project work in the industry, with their theses based on real projects from these companies [4]. Group 3: Practical Applications and Outcomes - The collaboration has led to successful outcomes, with three out of six joint-trained master's students choosing to stay with their company after completing their projects [4]. - AHT's computer science students have developed a big data platform for the beef cattle industry, creating over 300,000 yuan in economic benefits and generating numerous job opportunities [6]. - The partnership with Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group has resulted in research projects that directly contribute to production processes, with 15 graduates taking on core roles in the company [8]. Group 4: Future Directions - AHT aims to build a new educational ecosystem that integrates education, talent, industry, and innovation chains, focusing on deepening cooperation with leading enterprises and research institutions [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 | 52.70 | | | | 活动指数 | | | | | | ...

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8140 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3320 元/吨（-130）、天津 3400 元/吨（-180）、 日照 3580 元/吨（-70）、东莞 3620 元/吨（-70）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易关税问题暂未解决，影响中美大豆贸易。 （2）国际大豆：美豆开启播种，进度超过预期。巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：巴西大豆逐渐到港，油厂开机率回升，豆粕供给预期将逐渐转为宽 松。现货市场五一节前备货与油厂开工出现错配，豆粕库存降至低点。 参考观点：豆粕短线或偏弱运行。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2128 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 4 月 30 日星期三 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on the market has weakened, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. For Treasury bonds, short - term interest rates are expected to remain volatile. For precious metals, a medium - term long - term view should be maintained for gold and silver prices, but short - term attention should be paid to support levels and policy signals. For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. For black building materials, the prices of steel products and raw materials are under pressure, and glass and soda ash are expected to be weak. For energy chemicals, rubber prices are expected to repair, and the prices of other products are affected by supply and demand and macro factors. For agricultural products, the prices of various varieties are affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors, showing different trends [4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Financial Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.13%, while the STAR 50 Index rose 0.10%, and the North Exchange 50 Index rose 1.24% on the previous trading day. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1022.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.2 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: Xi Jinping emphasized accelerating the construction of a global - influential scientific and technological innovation high - ground during his inspection in Shanghai. The US March merchandise trade deficit hit a record high. The financing amount increased by 1.204 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate decreased by 6.20bp to 1.5410%. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy IM index futures long on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the TL main contract rose 0.69%, the T main contract rose 0.23%, the TF main contract rose 0.13%, and the TS main contract rose 0.01% [5]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission added and issued 81 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds to local areas. The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q1 2025 was 3.11%. The Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue 71 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds on May 9 [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term interest rates are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the release of liquidity by structural policy tools. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be introduced according to mid - term macro - situation changes [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold fell 0.29% to 785.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.12% to 8226.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.21% to 3326.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.15% to 33.19 US dollars/ounce [7]. - **Fundamentals**: US economic data weakened, and consumer confidence hit the lowest level since May 2020. Trump's attitude towards tariffs is tough, and the short - term risk of US tariffs is unlikely to ease significantly [7][8]. - **Strategy**: A medium - term long - term view should be maintained for gold and silver prices. For gold, pay attention to the support at 747 yuan/gram, and the reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 747 - 808 yuan/gram. For silver, wait for the Fed's clear loose policy signal, and the reference range for the Shanghai silver main contract is 7804 - 8545 yuan/kilogram [8]. 2. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: LME copper rose 0.44% to 9446 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77740 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 to 202500 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio rose to 35.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but consumption is weakening, and macro - sentiment is volatile [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 9300 - 9550 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: LME aluminum rose 1.42% to 2470 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20040 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 0.2 million hands to 524000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipt decreased by 0.2 million tons to 70000 tons [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity growth is limited, and inventory is declining, but the short - term sentiment is not optimistic [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with the domestic main contract reference range of 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 2420 - 2500 US dollars/ton [11]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory increased, and the price may decline due to the expected increase in social inventory. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be weak in the short - term and fluctuate in the range of 16300 - 17800 in the medium - term. - **Nickel**: The supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to ease, and the price center may move down. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to go short on rallies due to oversupply. - **Stainless Steel**: The price may be under pressure due to supply - demand contradictions [12][13][14][16][17][18][19]. 3. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Performance**: The rebar main contract fell 0.92% to 3100 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.83% to 3210 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The "Two New" and "Two Important" policies may support demand, but there are concerns about long - term demand and international trade. There are rumors of crude steel production cuts [22]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariffs, terminal demand, and cost support [22]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main contract (I2509) fell 0.21% to 709 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand may peak. There are rumors of crude steel production cuts [24]. - **Outlook**: The raw material is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of production cuts [24]. Other Black Building Materials - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass is expected to be weakly volatile, and soda ash is expected to be weak in the short - term. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices are expected to be weak, and it is not recommended to buy on the left side. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [25][26][30]. 4. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Performance**: The decline in rubber prices has released risks. - **Fundamentals**: There are differences between the long - and short - term views on supply and demand. Tire factory开工率 is declining, and inventory is high [34][35]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - long view in the short - term, with short - term operations and attention to the RU2601 - RU2509 spread [37]. Other Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price fell, and it is considered that there is a high probability of OPEC increasing production due to Kazakhstan's over - quota production [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to go short on rallies due to the expected increase in supply and weakening demand [39]. - **Urea**: It is suitable for long - position allocation on dips, and pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread [40]. - **Styrene**: It is recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to risks during the holiday [41]. - **PVC**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it depends on maintenance and exports for further inventory reduction [43]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile due to supply - demand and tariff impacts [44]. - **PTA and PX**: They are expected to follow the crude oil trend and are affected by negative feedback in the industrial chain [45][47]. - **Polyethylene and Polypropylene**: The prices are expected to decline due to supply and demand factors [48][49]. 5. Agricultural Products Livestock and Poultry Products - **Pigs**: The short - term price is stable, and it is recommended to short on rallies after rebounds [51]. - **Eggs**: The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies after rebounds [52]. Oilseeds and Meals - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The future inventory of soybean meal and soybeans is expected to increase, and the price is affected by supply, demand, and tariffs [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price is affected by trade wars, and the medium - term is expected to be stable and bullish [54]. Oils - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production and exports are increasing, and the US soybean oil demand may be boosted. - **Outlook**: The price may be weak in the short - term and may be supported in the medium - term if the macro - situation stabilizes [55][56]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell, and the spot price also declined slightly [57]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease, and the short - term domestic sugar price is affected by drought and imports [57][58]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile [58]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell, and the spot price also declined slightly [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton planting progress is smooth, and the domestic cotton market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [59]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and inventory changes [59].

新华财经北京4月30日电（记者王小璐）29日，安泰科2025年（第十六届）有色金属市场报告会在北京 召开。分析师认为，受全球铜矿供应收缩与能源转型需求拉动双重驱动，2025年铜价或将延续高位震荡 格局，铜价全年均价有望突破2024年水平，长期上行趋势未改。 有色金属市场波动品种分化显著 安泰科高级分析师王晓旭表示，从基本面来看，2024年全球铜冶炼产能扩张遭遇矿端供应收缩，支撑铜 价高位运行。2025年一季度在以旧换新消费政策和风光抢装潮等因素刺激下铜消费好于预期，但外部环 境的冲击与不确定性会对铜消费带来负面影响。综合来看，铜作为能源转型的关键支撑材料，长期上行 趋势没有被破坏，预计2025年度铜均价高于2024年。 安泰科铝事业部经理申凌燕表示，2024年，中国电解铝供应和需求均实现了超预期增长，全年产量4346 万吨，同比增长4.3%；消费量4518万吨，同比增长5.5%。2025年以来，错综复杂且多变的宏观及行业 情况使得电解铝价格剧烈波动，整体呈"N"字型走势。后市来看，供应受限支撑铝价的逻辑仍然存在， 但出口下降、国内需求环比有转弱风险，同时成本重心继续下移，价格上涨空间或受压制，整体将表现 为前 ...