Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - In the context of expected supply increase and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold the short position at 14,000 and monitor the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [2]. Industrial Silicon - In June, industrial silicon still faces a weak fundamental situation of oversupply, and the price remains under pressure. Recently, the rebound in coal prices brings an expectation of rising raw material prices, which supports the price, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [4]. Polysilicon - The fundamentals have not significantly improved, and the atmosphere at the Shanghai PV exhibition is bearish. However, due to the low price, hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the pressure level around 35,000 yuan/ton. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the excess pattern is obvious, and there will be further profit - reduction. After the photovoltaic rush - installation, the growth of photovoltaic capacity has slowed down, and the overall demand has not increased significantly. After the maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. - For glass, it still faces over - supply pressure in the future, and the industry needs capacity clearance. The 09 contract fluctuates around 1000 points, and a short - term bearish strategy can be considered [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan Guofu all - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 13,900 yuan/ton. The all - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 140%. The Thai standard mixed rubber quote remained at 13,750 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton, a decline of 28%. The FOB mid - price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.40 Thai baht/kg to 47.45 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85%. The FOB mid - price of glue in the international market remained at 56.75 yuan/ton. The price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna increased by 400 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28%. The price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 400 yuan/ton to 13,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.15%. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan remained at 12,400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price of imported rubber raw materials in Hainan remained at 9,000 yuan/ton [2]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 850 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.8%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 72 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.18%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to 915 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.81% [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 435,000 tons to 1.057 million tons, a decline of 29.16%. Indonesia's production decreased by 15,200 tons to 194,100 tons, a decline of 7.26%. India's production decreased by 7,600 tons to 45,400 tons, a decline of 14.34%. China's production increased by 42,300 tons to 58,100 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 4.12 percentage points to 77.98%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 2.23 percentage points to 61.24%. In April, the domestic tire production decreased by 5.444 million pieces to 102.002 million pieces, a decline of 5.07%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in April decreased by 490,000 pieces to 5.739 million pieces, a decline of 7.87%. The total import volume of natural rubber in April decreased by 70,900 tons to 523,200 tons, a decline of 11.93%. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in May decreased by 83,000 tons to 607,000 tons, a decline of 12.03% [2]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) decreased by 4,100 tons to 1,011,111 tons, a decline of 0.67%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 13,003 tons to 34,876 tons, an increase of 59.45%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased by 1.14 percentage points to 3.34%, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points to 4.83%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao increased by 0.82 percentage points to 7.76%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 7.18% [2]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained at 8,150 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.83%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 8,700 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on SI4210) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 555 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.72%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained at 7,600 yuan/ton, and the basis (in Xinjiang) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1,055 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.64% [4]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 7,260 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton, an increase of 98.84%. The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.29%. The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 50%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 175%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.09% [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6,900 tons to 307,700 tons, an increase of 2.29%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 4,400 tons to 163,100 tons, a decline of 2.6%. Yunnan's production decreased by 3,400 tons to 10,000 tons, a decline of 25.43%. Sichuan's production increased by 12,400 tons to 23,700 tons, an increase of 109.47%. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 2,100 tons to 46,100 tons, an increase of 4.78%. Ningxia's production increased by 3,500 tons to 23,500 tons, an increase of 17.5%. The production of 97 - grade silicon decreased by 7,200 tons to 4,800 tons, a decline of 60%. The production of recycled silicon increased by 500 tons to 16,500 tons, an increase of 3.12%. The production of silicone DMC in May increased by 11,200 tons to 184,000 tons, an increase of 6.48%. The production of polysilicon in May increased by 700 tons to 96,100 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy in May decreased by 400 tons to 60,600 tons, a decline of 0.66%. The export volume of industrial silicon in April increased by 100 tons to 6,050 tons, an increase of 1.64% [4]. Inventory Changes - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 410 tons to 18,670 tons, a decline of 2.15%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 70 tons to 2,580 tons, an increase of 2.79%. The inventory in Sichuan increased by 10 tons to 2,310 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 57,200 tons, a decline of 2.56%. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 550 tons to 28,410 tons, a decline of 1.89%. The non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 950 tons to 28,790 tons, a decline of 3.2% [4]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained at 35,500 yuan/ton, the average price of P - type cauliflower material remained at 29,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained at 33,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 625 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 34.63%. The cauliflower material basis (average price) decreased by 625 yuan/ton to 7,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.01%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210mm remained at 1.27 yuan/piece, the average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210R remained at 1.06 yuan/piece, the average price of single - crystal Topcon battery wafers of 210R remained at 0.268 yuan/piece, the average price of single - crystal PERC battery wafers of 182mm remained at 0.268 yuan/piece, the average price of Topcon components of 210mm (distributed) remained at 0.699 yuan/watt, and the average price of N - type 210mm components for centralized projects remained at 0.686 yuan/watt [5]. - The PS2506 contract price increased by 625 yuan/ton to 34,320 yuan/ton. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 720 yuan/ton to 1,690 yuan/ton, a decline of 29.88%. The PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 290 yuan/ton to 1,215 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.35%. The PS2508 - PS2509 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 595 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.46%. The PS2509 - PS2510 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 265 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.46%. The PS2510 - PS2511 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 370 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.46%. The PS2511 - PS2512 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 1,605 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.46% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.06 GW to 13.1 GW, an increase of 0.46%. The weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 tons to 2.38 tons, an increase of 8.18%. The monthly polysilicon production in May increased by 0.07 tons to 9.61 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The polysilicon import volume in April decreased by 0.02 tons to 0.29 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The polysilicon export volume in April decreased by 0.02 tons to 0.2 tons, a decline of 10.4%. The net export volume of polysilicon in April remained at - 0.09 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 27.5 tons, an increase of 2.23%. The silicon wafer inventory decreased by 0.68 GW to 19.34 GW, a decline of 3.4%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 2,600 tons [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - The glass price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,130 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.88%. The price in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,230 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.38%. The price in Central China remained at 1,070 yuan/ton. The price in South China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,290 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.53%. The glass 2505 contract price decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1,077 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.37%. The glass 2509 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 976 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%. The 05 basis decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 10.17% [6]. - The soda ash price in North China remained at 1,400 yuan/ton, the price in East China remained at 1,350 yuan/ton, the price in Central China remained at 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price in Northwest China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,030 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%. The soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,204 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.66%. The soda ash 2509 contract price decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 1,156 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.57%. The 05 basis increased by 8 yuan/ton to 196 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.26% [6]. Supply and Demand Data - The soda ash operating rate increased by 6.33 percentage points to 84.9%, and the weekly production increased by 5,510 tons to 74,010 tons, an increase of 8.04%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 100 tons to 15,570 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 98,990 tons, a decline of 1%. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 1 yuan to 20 yuan, a decline of 4.76% [6]. Inventory Changes - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 192,300 weight - boxes to 6,968,500 weight - boxes, an increase of 2.84%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 62,000 tons to 168,630 tons, an increase of 3.82%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 32,710 tons, a decline of 5.87%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 2.9 days to 21 days, an increase of 15.91% [6]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 2.99 percentage points to - 18.73%, the year - on - year growth rate of construction area decreased by 7.56 percentage points to - 33.33%, the year - on - year growth rate of completion area increased by 15.67 percentage points to - 11.68%, and the year

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the futures price showed a weak oscillation, and the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals changed little, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [1][3] - For polysilicon, the futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals were weak, and the market might maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term due to improved commodity sentiment and more capital games [4][6] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Summary Market Analysis - On June 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The 2507 main contract opened at 7305 yuan/ton and closed at 7370 yuan/ton, a change of 0.41% from the previous settlement price. The 2505 main contract held 323363 positions at the close, and on June 17, the total number of warehouse receipts was 56823, a decrease of 1097 from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 12, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 57.2 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week. Among them, the general social warehouse was 13.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse was 43.9 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons [1] Consumption End - The organic silicon DMC quotation was 10400 - 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The domestic organic silicon DMC market's transaction center continued to decline, and the mainstream transaction price was about 10700 yuan/ton. The lowest transaction price in Shandong was below 10500 yuan/ton. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer enterprises was expected to approach 70%, and the DMC transaction center was expected to decline slightly [2] Strategy - The industrial silicon futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals changed little, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. The strategy was to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises could sell hedging at high prices [3] Group 4: Polysilicon Summary Market Analysis - On June 16, 2025, the polysilicon futures 2507 main contract oscillated. It opened at 33765 yuan/ton and closed at 34320 yuan/ton, a 1.93% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 51277 positions, and the trading volume was 62835 [4] - The polysilicon spot price was stable. The re - feeding material was priced at 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material at 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material at 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon at 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material at 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg [4] - Polysilicon factory inventory increased slightly, and silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.50, a 2.23% change, silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW, a - 3.40% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 23800.00 tons, an 8.00% change, and the silicon wafer output was 13.10GW, a 0.40% change [4][5] - In terms of silicon wafers, the domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.06 yuan/piece [5] - In terms of battery cells, the high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [5] Strategy - The polysilicon futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals were weak, and the market might maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term. The strategy was neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily outlook for various commodities futures, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity is analyzed based on its fundamentals, macro and industry news, and assigned a trend strength rating [2]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have eased, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces and is expected to trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - **Alumina**: Expected to trade weakly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][19]. - **Lead**: Bullish in the medium term, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - **Tin**: Tight supply in the short term but weak expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, with weak supply and demand and low - level oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost - downward trend continues, and lithium prices may remain weak, with a trend strength of 0 [2][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a short - selling strategy, with a trend strength of -1 [2][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Pay attention to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of -1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and prices will trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41]. - **Rebar**: Subject to macro - sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Subject to macro - sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Wide - range oscillations due to sector - sentiment resonance, with a trend strength of 1 [2][47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Wide - range oscillations due to sector - sentiment resonance, with a trend strength of 1 [2][47]. - **Coke**: Stricter safety inspections, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][51]. - **Coking Coal**: Stricter safety inspections, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][51]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical uncertainties increase, and the support for the futures price weakens [2][52]. - **PVC**: Short - term oscillations, with downward pressure in the long - term [2][55]. - **Fuel Oil**: Retreated at night, and short - term strength is expected to ease [2][57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weakened in the short - term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly narrowed [2][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel policy and geopolitical risks are both positive [2][64]. - **Soybean Oil**: The short - term regression of the soybean - palm oil price spread is blocked [2][64]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rose overnight, and Dalian soybean meal oscillates [2][66]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Heilongjiang Province's reserve auction announcement has led to market adjustments and oscillations [2][66]. - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][68]. - **Sugar**: Started to rebound [2][70]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the impact of external markets [2][71]. - **Eggs**: The elimination of laying hens is accelerating [2][73]. - **Pigs**: Still waiting for spot - market confirmation [2][74]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [2][75]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract shows an oscillating trend, and hold short positions in the 10 contract [2][58]. - **Short - Fiber**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at high levels [2][62]. - **Bottle Chips**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at high levels [2][62]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating [2][63]. - **Log**: Wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59].

2025年06月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：成本下移趋势延续，锂价或仍偏弱 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高空配思路为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪变化 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 1）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 2）根据钢联，4 月 27 日，中国恩菲 EPC 总承包的印尼 CNI 镍铁 RKEF 一期项目成功产出镍铁，标志 着项目正式进入试生产阶段。CNI 项目位于印尼东南苏拉威西省，生产品位 22%的镍铁，单条线年产金属 镍约 1.25 ...

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月17日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13900 | 13900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -10 | 25 | -35 | -140.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -160 | -125 | -35 | -28.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | 12 ...

1. Report Date - The report is dated June 17, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The research team consists of Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main polysilicon contract rebounded from a low level. The closing price of PS2508 was 33,585 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.93%. The trading volume was 62,835 lots, and the open interest was 51,277 lots, a net decrease of 5,586 lots [4] Outlook - The supply - demand contradiction has not further intensified after the "rush installation" ended, but terminal pressure will gradually be transmitted upstream. The weekly output in the second week of June remained at 22,000 tons, and the monthly output is expected to stay around 100,000 tons. It is difficult to increase production during the wet season, which may relieve the potential supply pressure in the far - month. If production cuts are implemented, it will support the current spot and futures prices. The weak reality is that the "rush installation" of downstream photovoltaic terminals is ending, and the terminal photovoltaic demand has dropped to around 40GW. Although the weekly data of silicon wafers and cells has not decreased rapidly, the inventory has been accumulating for 9 consecutive weeks, and there are few positive news on the demand side during the policy vacuum period. The 07 contract is already at a discount to the price range of re - feed materials, reflecting the pessimistic expectations of funds. The resistance to further decline is increasing, but if the production cut does not increase, the fundamentals are difficult to provide continuous rebound momentum, and it will mainly operate weakly in the range [4] 4. Market News - As of June 16, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. The transaction price range of n - type re - feed materials was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p - type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will hold the "2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference" in Leshan, Sichuan from June 24 - 26 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For financial futures and options, the overall market is affected by overseas and domestic factors. The stock index futures are expected to continue adjusting in the short - term and move in a range in the medium - term, while the bond futures are expected to be strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures and options, different varieties in the metal and new energy materials sector have different trends. Copper is expected to move in a range, while industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate are expected to be weak [4][6][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Continued adjustment [1] - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and short - sell IM2506 on rallies [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the initial Sino - US trade agreement and the Middle East conflict have mixed impacts; domestically, the fundamental data is weak, and the market lacks a continuous upward main line [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, and long - term bonds are strong [2] - **Medium - term View**: Strong [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the Middle East conflict boosts the domestic bond market; in terms of funds, the central bank's operation is beneficial to long - term bonds; fundamentally, the financial data and price levels support the loose expectation [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: 78000 - 79100 [4] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a shock - operation strategy [4] - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, the Israel - Iran conflict affects the market; in terms of supply, the production plan of a copper mine is reduced, while Yunnan Copper's production increases; in terms of demand, the wire and cable and copper rod industries have different trends; in terms of inventory, LME and SHFE have different inventory changes. The Sino - US tariff negotiation results are crucial for the future copper price [4][5] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 7300 - 7400 [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure in the range of 7000 - 8500 [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000 and short - sell futures [6] - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [6][7] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Polycrystalline Silicon - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 33000 - 34000 [8] - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation in the range of 30000 - 40000 [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold PS2507 - C - 45000 [8] - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [8][9][10] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 62000 - 65000 [11] - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price steadily declines in the range of 59000 - 65000 [11] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold LC2507 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, the supply pressure is large, and the total inventory is at a high level [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for industrial silicon is "oscillating", and for polysilicon is also "oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price lacks obvious rebound momentum. The futures market rebounded this week possibly due to factors such as following the coking coal rebound, increased spot holding willingness, and concerns about insufficient delivery products. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and one can consider short - selling lightly after a rebound. Attention should be paid to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large manufacturers [4][16] - For polysilicon, whether leading enterprises reduce production will significantly affect the fundamentals. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the fundamentals are bearish for the futures market. A strategy of short - term short and long - term long can be considered, with the key being the production - cut actions of leading enterprises [4][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2507 contract of industrial silicon increased by 55 yuan/ton to 7345 yuan/ton, while the SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained at 8150 yuan/ton and Xinjiang 99 at 7600 yuan/ton. The PS2507 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1045 yuan/ton to 33695 yuan/ton, and the N - type re -投料 transaction price decreased by 800 yuan/ton to 36700 yuan/ton [10] 2. Spot Lacks Rebound Momentum, Pessimistic Mood Prevails at SNEC Exhibition - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated. The weekly production was 7.31 tons, with a monthly increase of 4.18%. Sichuan has entered the wet season, and some silicon plants have resumed production. Yunnan may start in July, but no clear electricity price discount has been given, and most plants do not plan to work. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1.5 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.32 tons. The demand side has not improved significantly, and the current level of supply contraction does not support a significant rebound in spot prices for industrial silicon [2][12] - **Silicone**: This week, the silicon price continued to decline. The overall enterprise operating rate was about 70.44%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.91pct. The weekly, with a month - on - month growth of 1.02%. Supply has picked up, demand is weak, and inventory has piled up, so prices are expected to face downward pressure [13] - **Polysilicon**: This week, the prices of the main futures contract of polysilicon oscillated downward. The production schedule for June is expected to remain at 96,000 tons, and it is expected to reduce inventory by about 10,000 tons. As of June 12, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 275,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production to support prices will have a major impact on the fundamentals [3][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: This week, silicon wafer prices continued to fall. As of June 12, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 19.34GW, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.68GW. The production schedule for June is 55GW, which may lead to continued inventory accumulation. Leading enterprises are engaged in price wars, and prices are expected to face downward pressure [14] - **Battery Cells**: This week, battery cell prices continued to decline. The production schedule for June is expected to be 53GW, and the inventory is still accumulating. As of June 9, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 14.98GW, with a month - on - month increase of 1.14GW. Battery cell production cuts are slow, and leading enterprises are engaged in price wars, so prices are expected to face downward pressure [14] - **Components**: This week, component prices were basically stable. The production schedule for June is about 50GW, with a month - on - month decrease of 10%. Demand is expected to weaken significantly from July to August. Domestic component demand faces pressure, and overseas restocking willingness needs to be observed in the second half of the year. Component prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [15] 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: Consider short - selling lightly after a rebound. Pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large manufacturers [4][16] - **Polysilicon**: Adopt a strategy of short - term short and long - term long, and pay attention to the production - cut actions of leading enterprises. Manage positions carefully when building positions on the left - hand side [4][16] 4. Hot News Compilation - Zhu Gongshan pointed out at the 2025 SNEC PV+ International Photovoltaic Conferences that the photovoltaic industry is undergoing three major changes: abnormal industrial evolution curve, rewritten market development logic, and extended industrial boundary attributes [17] - Longi Green Energy's 3GW BC photovoltaic component project was publicly announced. The project is located in Wuzhong, Ningxia, with a total investment of 300 million yuan [17] - Anhui Huasheng's 3.3GW silicon wafer technical renovation and expansion project's environmental assessment was accepted. After the project is completed, the silicon wafer production capacity will increase from 2.7GW to 6GW [18] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly production in different regions, and social and factory inventories [20][22][26] - **Silicone**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventories, and weekly production [29][30] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventories, and enterprise weekly production [33][34] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventories, and enterprise weekly production [35][38][39] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventories, and enterprise monthly production [41][43][47] - **Components**: Covers data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventories, and enterprise monthly production [49][52][54]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: June 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract of polysilicon weakened again. The closing price of PS2507 was 33,585 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.39%. The trading volume was 65,591 lots, and the open interest was 61,695 lots, with a net increase of 1,499 lots [4] - Future Outlook: After the end of the terminal rush installation and with policies in a vacuum period, the weak spot price limits the rebound space. The weekly output in the first week of June is expected to remain at 22,000 tons, and the monthly output is expected to be around 100,000 tons. The potential supply pressure in the far - month is alleviated as the production increase during the wet season is difficult to materialize. A meeting at the end of June may discuss further production cuts to support the current futures and spot prices. The weak reality is mainly reflected in the end of the "rush installation" in the downstream photovoltaic terminal, with a significant decline in monthly demand both year - on - year and month - on - month. The market will mainly oscillate weakly at a low level [4] Group 3: Market News - Warehouse Receipts: As of June 11, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, with a net increase of 120 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - Transaction Prices: The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p - type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5] - Industry Conference: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will hold the "2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference" in Leshan, Sichuan Province from June 24 - 26 [5] - Project News: Dacheng New Energy's Anji Intelligent Manufacturing Base Project is expected to be completed and put into operation at the end of June. The project has a total investment of 4.7 billion yuan and plans to build a 4.8GW high - efficiency heterojunction battery + 7.2GW battery module fully automated intelligent production line in two phases [5]