宏观要闻 机构观点 马建堂：到2035年中国人均GDP达到2.3万美元完全有可能 深圳市委金融办日前召开全体大会。会议强调，继续有力有序有效防范化解各类金融风险，严控增量、妥处存量、严防"爆雷"。坚持"一企一策"深入推进中 小金融机构改革化险。稳妥做好重点企业风险处置，加快推动重点房企涉众理财风险出清。严厉打击非法金融活动，加强跨部门协作联动，强化"线上+线 下"的"预警-识别-快速处置"链条。 在岸、离岸人民币对美元刷新逾一年来新高 离岸人民币对美元汇率今日盘中一度升至7.04，创2024年10月4日以来新高；在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.04，创下2024年10月8日以来新高。 发改委强调大力提升居民消费意愿 国家发展和改革委员会党组在《求是》杂志撰文，强调要坚定实施扩大内需战略，包括提升居民消费意愿和增强居民消费能力，积极拓展有效投资空间等。 发改委表示，接下来要着力释放居民消费潜力。大力提升居民消费意愿。深入实施提振消费专项行动。加力稳定大宗消费，实施好消费品以旧换新政策。 深圳将加快推动重点房企涉众理财风险出清 国务院发展研究中心原党组书记马建堂在周二的"国是论坛2025年会"上表示，2022 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial turmoil surrounding the Zhejiang businessman Yu Faxiang and his Xiangyuan Group has led to significant stock price declines for its listed companies, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiaojian Co., with stock prices dropping over 20% and 30% respectively in December 2023 [1][5]. Group 1: Company Financial Issues - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism announced that its production and operations remain normal despite the financial issues faced by its indirect controlling shareholder, Xiangyuan Holdings [5]. - The total assets of Xiangyuan Holdings are approximately 60 billion yuan, with liabilities of around 40 billion yuan, indicating a liquidity crisis exacerbated by the downturn in the real estate market [12]. - The company has been involved in over 200 financial products that have failed to pay out, with a total scale exceeding 10 billion yuan [12][13]. Group 2: Shareholder and Stock Information - As of the announcement date, the actual controller and major shareholder, Xiangyuan Travel, holds 612,433,915 shares, accounting for 58.08% of the total share capital, with all shares being judicially frozen [6][7]. - The judicial freeze includes 461,967,812 shares under pending freeze and 207,360,000 shares under judicial pledge, indicating severe restrictions on shareholder activities [6][10]. - In Jiaojian Co., the controlling shareholder's 274,293,290 shares, representing 44.32% of the total share capital, have also been frozen, with 45,243,290 shares under judicial freeze [9][10]. Group 3: Government Response and Support - Following the financial crisis, the local government has established a working group to assist Xiangyuan Holdings in managing its debts and ensuring normal operations [14][16]. - The working group began its investigation on December 12, 2023, focusing on asset and liability assessments to facilitate targeted support for the company [16]. - The Zhejiang provincial government has set up multiple channels for investors to voice their concerns and complaints regarding the financial products and the ongoing situation [17].

Group 1 - The core opportunities for China's real economy over the past 20 years include globalization, urbanization, and digitalization [1] - Globalization has allowed Chinese enterprises to integrate into global supply chains, enhancing production efficiency and establishing China's "world factory" status [1] - Urbanization has driven the real estate sector's growth and created a virtuous cycle through local government infrastructure investments [1] - Digitalization has led to the deep integration of the digital economy with the real economy, characterized by the rise of e-commerce and mobile payments [1] Group 2 - Future opportunities for the next 20 years include corporate globalization driven by geopolitical changes, new consumption patterns due to demographic shifts, and advancements in artificial intelligence [2] - Chinese companies are increasingly engaging in global markets, with manufacturing accounting for 35% of global output and significant foreign direct investment [2] - The changing population structure presents a substantial opportunity for consumption growth, with government and enterprises needing to collaborate to enhance consumer spending [2] Group 3 - The current Chinese consumption market exhibits a "K-shaped" structure, with both budget-conscious and high-quality consumption demands [3] - The rise of service consumption, particularly in the aging population sector, indicates a growing demand for healthcare and elderly care services [3] - The integration of online and offline consumption channels is becoming more pronounced, with domestic brands and traditional culture gaining popularity [3] Group 4 - The technological revolution, particularly in artificial intelligence, is expected to drive significant economic changes [4] - AI is characterized by its generative capabilities, natural language interaction, multimodal abilities, and enhanced logical reasoning [4] - The AI revolution will empower the development of core AI industries, create opportunities for domestic chip replacements, and expand "AI+" business applications [4]

市场资讯：万科提议将 12 月 15 日到期债券展期 12 个月。 ...

格隆汇12月16日丨华侨城Ａ(000069.SZ)公布，近日，公司收到控股股东华侨城集团出具的《关于增持 华侨城A股份计划的告知函》，及其一致行动人深圳华侨城资本投资管理有限公司签署的《简式权益变 动报告书》，华侨城集团于2025年7月15日至2025年12月16日期间，通过深圳证券交易所交易系统集中 竞价交易的方式累计增持公司股份1957.29万股，占公司总股本的0.24%，增持金额（不含交易费用）合 计人民币5017.42万元。本次增持后，公司控股股东及其一致行动人共计持有公司股份比例由49.76%变 动至50.00%，变动触及5%的整数倍。 ...

过去一周（ 12 月 8 日 -12 月 12 日）， A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化格局，成长风格显著跑赢。 主要指数中，创业板指全周表现最佳，累计上涨 2.74% ，深证成指上涨 0.84% ，而上证指数则微跌 0.34% 。市场交投活跃度有所提升，沪深两市日均成交额达到 1.95 万亿元，较前一周放量明显。分行业看， 受到产业政策和事件催化推动，以商业航天、 CPO （共封装光学）、可控核聚变为代表的科技成长板块涨幅居前，煤炭、石油石化、房地产等传统板块表现 不佳。 可转债市场小幅上涨，估值继续修复。 中证转债指数全周累计上涨 0.20% ，转债等权指数小幅上涨 0.09% ，涨幅大于转债正股等权指数（下跌 0.94% ）。市场内部结构分化明显，高价低溢价率转债表现相对较好，双低和低价转债则有所回调，小盘和大盘转债上涨，而中盘转债则下跌。转债平价中位数下跌 1.61% 至 99.60 元，而转债价格中位数下跌 0.63% 至 130.78 元，转股溢价率中位数拉升 1.21pct 至 32.71% 。 展望 12 月下半月的转债市场，预计短期将维持震荡巩固，在临近年底时有望预热反弹。 12 月美联储降息靴子 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the resilience and vitality of China's economy, projecting a stable growth rate of around 5% for the year, with a total economic output expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan [2][3]. Economic Performance and Challenges - The overall economic operation is stable, with major indicators meeting expectations, and external trade showing rapid growth [2]. - Despite achievements, challenges remain, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [3]. Macroeconomic Policies - The government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on stability and quality improvement [4][5]. - Fiscal policies will maintain necessary deficits and debt levels while enhancing local government financial capabilities [5][6]. - Monetary policy will prioritize economic stability and reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools to support growth [8]. Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority, with consumption contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters [9]. - Investment in infrastructure and social services is crucial, with a focus on high-quality projects and stimulating private investment [10]. Regional Development and Coordination - The construction of international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a strategic move to enhance global competitiveness [12][13]. - Regional coordination will be promoted through tailored development strategies and infrastructure connectivity [19][20]. Green Transition and Employment - The government aims to achieve carbon peak and neutrality, with a focus on developing a new energy system and green industries [21][22]. - Employment policies will prioritize stability, targeting key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers [24][25]. Real Estate Market Stability - The real estate market will be stabilized through supply-demand measures and support for housing enterprises to transition towards providing diverse living services [26][28].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's monetary normalization is anticipated as a black swan event, with a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, marking a significant shift for the yen [2] - Japan's core CPI has remained above the central bank's 2% target for 28 consecutive months, indicating a departure from deflation [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows an upward trend, suggesting inflation is now driven by wage demands rather than just rising oil prices [6] Group 2 - The average wage increase in Japan reached 5.46%, the highest in 34 years, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing power and a potential for a positive economic cycle [9][10] - Japan's output gap has been positive for three consecutive quarters, reflecting a rare situation where demand exceeds supply [12] - The long-standing low-interest environment is mismatched with the emerging high-demand society, leading to potential economic adjustments [13] Group 3 - Japan's government debt exceeds 1,333 trillion yen, with interest payments consuming 22.4% of the budget, raising concerns about the impact of rate hikes on fiscal sustainability [19] - The anticipated 25 basis point increase could add 3.3 trillion yen to annual interest expenses, highlighting the significant cost of normalization [20] - The slow pace of rate hikes reflects the need to test market tolerance amid rising inflation and debt concerns [21] Group 4 - The potential for a significant asset reallocation globally as Japan raises rates, with implications for U.S. Treasuries and emerging markets [40][44] - Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt, and a shift in interest rates could accelerate the trend of selling U.S. bonds [44] - Emerging markets could face severe consequences from capital outflows, reminiscent of past financial crises [49][51] Group 5 - For Japanese banks, a rate hike is beneficial, potentially increasing net profits significantly due to improved net interest margins [56] - However, the real estate market, which has relied on low mortgage rates, may face challenges as borrowing costs rise [58] - Small and medium-sized enterprises may struggle with increased financing costs, leading to higher bankruptcy rates and economic "cleansing" [61]

来源：新华社 在"十四五"即将收官、"十五五"新程待启的关键时点，2025年12月10日至11日召开的中央 经济工作会议备受瞩目。 当前经济形势怎么看？"十五五"新开局重点任务如何推进？聚焦舆论关注的热点问题，中央 财办有关负责同志会后第一时间接受中央主要媒体采访，深入解读中央经济工作会议精神。 问：2025年我国交出怎样的经济"成绩单"？明年经济形势如何? 答： 中央经济工作会议对今年经济工作进行全面总结，指出2025年是很不平凡的一年，我国 经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活力。 一是运行总体平稳、稳中有进。 主要经济指标符合预期，预计全年经济增长5%左右、继续位 居世界主要经济体前列，经济总量有望达到140万亿元左右。就业总体稳定，外贸较快增长、 出口多元化成效明显。 二是现代化产业体系建设持续推进。 新质生产力稳步发展，科技创新成果丰硕，人工智能、 生物医药、机器人等研发应用走在全球前列。 三是改革开放迈出新步伐。 全国统一大市场建设向纵深推进，综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显 现，资本市场较为活跃，自主开放有序推进。 四是重点领域风险化解取得积极进展。 地方政府隐性债务有序置换，"保交房"任务 ...

Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants in December decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, compared to a 7.2% decline in November, indicating a continuation of weak demand in both power and non-power sectors [1][6] - The industrial operating rates showed mixed results, with the operating rate of steel blast furnaces down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 0.1 percentage points [7][8] - Key steel mills reported a 1.4% month-on-month decline in crude steel production, with a 4.5% year-on-year decrease, while rebar production fell by 10.5% month-on-month and 16.2% year-on-year [9] Group 2: Construction and Material Supply - The funding availability rate for construction sites improved marginally, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in funding for both non-residential and residential construction [11] - The asphalt production rate remained stable month-on-month but decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating fluctuations in construction activity [11][12] - The national cement dispatch rate recorded a 30.09% rate, down 3.1 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a slowdown in construction material supply [12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales Trends - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 1.4% year-on-year, while domestic flight operations rose by 1.3%, suggesting a slight recovery in consumer mobility [3][12] - Real estate sales remained weak, with a 32.9% year-on-year decline in average daily transactions of commercial housing in major cities during the first half of December [16] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles saw a significant drop of 32% year-on-year, with wholesale sales down by 40%, indicating a contraction in consumer spending in the automotive sector [17] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Activity - The container throughput at domestic ports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, although this growth rate was lower than the 10.2% recorded in November, reflecting ongoing resilience in trade [21] - The Business Price Index (BPI) showed signs of recovery, with a 0.8% increase compared to the end of November, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [24] - The production of household appliances continued to decline, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines dropping significantly, reflecting reduced consumer demand [18][19]