Economic Overview - The latest GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of January 31 is 5.8%, a slight decrease from the previous value of 5.9%, indicating a marginal improvement in economic growth at the start of Q1 2026[1][9]. - The economic activity is entering a seasonal slowdown as the Spring Festival approaches, despite maintaining a high overall economic prosperity level in January[1][9]. Production Sector Insights - Industrial indicators show an overall recovery, likely linked to increased upstream raw material production activities, while service sector indicators have shown mixed results with a slight decline[2][11]. - The industrial weekly prosperity index increased to 8.7%, up from 8.6%, while the service sector index decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%[10]. Demand Side Analysis - Consumer demand is positively impacted by the Spring Festival, with a significant increase in travel data; the consumer high-frequency index rose to 5.0% from 2.7%[10][20]. - Real estate sales in 30 major cities showed a slight recovery with a transaction area of 128.5 million square meters, an 8% increase from the previous week[51]. Price Trends - Consumer prices have seen a slight rebound, with the agricultural product wholesale price index increasing by 0.38% week-on-week, while industrial product prices have also shown a minor increase[67]. - The average wholesale price of pork rose by 2.4% week-on-week, continuing a trend of price increases over the past four weeks[70]. Risks and Challenges - Economic structural transformation may lead to a decline in the fitting degree of traditional indicators to the economy, posing a risk to accurate economic forecasting[3]. - Geopolitical tensions may exceed expectations, potentially impacting economic stability and growth[3].

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing second-hand housing market has shown signs of stabilization at the beginning of 2026, with a net signing volume of 15,082 units in January, maintaining a steady level above 14,000 units for three consecutive months, indicating a solid market recovery [1][2]. Market Performance - The net signing volume of second-hand homes in Beijing has been consistently above 14,000 units since November 2025, with figures of 14,446, 17,200, and 15,082 units recorded from November 2025 to January 2026 [2]. - The market has experienced a significant increase in transaction volume, with a 33% rise in transactions following the introduction of new real estate policies in December 2025 [3]. Demand Factors - The release of educational demand has shifted buyer sentiment, leading to an increase in transactions in certain areas, particularly those with quality educational resources and living facilities [6]. - The demand for improvement-type housing has risen, with a notable increase in transaction volume in areas previously dominated by first-time buyers [8]. Supply Dynamics - The number of second-hand housing listings has decreased from approximately 150,000 units to around 130,000 units, contributing to a more balanced supply-demand relationship [3]. - Owners are now pricing their properties more rationally, aligning with market conditions, which has facilitated smoother transactions [3][4]. Buyer Preferences - There is a noticeable shift in buyer preferences towards newer properties, with an increased focus on property services, product quality, and living experience rather than just price [7]. - The demand for improvement-type housing is no longer limited to outer districts, as even areas traditionally focused on first-time buyers are seeing a rise in improvement-type transactions [8]. Policy Impact - Recent policy changes, including adjustments to down payment ratios and mortgage rates, have significantly lowered the barriers to homeownership, encouraging more buyers to enter the market [9]. - The current mortgage standards and transaction costs are at historically low levels, creating a favorable environment for potential buyers [9][10].

Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced the largest single-day drop since 1980, with spot gold falling over 12% to a low of $4682 per ounce, closing down 9.25% at $4880 per ounce [1] - Silver prices also saw a historic decline, with spot silver dropping over 36% to a low of $74.28 per ounce, closing down 26.42% at $85.259 per ounce [1] - The decline in precious metals was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which eased concerns about the Fed yielding to pressure for lower interest rates [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises reported PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, both below the critical threshold [2] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need to consolidate the stable and positive momentum of the capital market, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and high-quality development [3] - The CSRC plans to expand the types of strategic investors and clarify minimum shareholding requirements, allowing various institutional investors to participate as strategic investors [6] Group 4: Company Performance Forecasts - Aerospace Development is expected to report a net loss of between 1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan for 2025 [9] - Deep Blue Technology anticipates a net loss of between 12.581 billion to 15.573 billion yuan for 2025, with potential delisting risk [10] - Zhongji Xuchuang forecasts a net profit increase of 89.50% to 128.17% year-on-year for 2025 [11] - New Yisheng expects a net profit increase of 231% to 249% year-on-year for 2025, with fourth-quarter performance exceeding expectations [11] - Cambrian Technology predicts a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [11] - Wentai Technology anticipates a net loss of between 9 billion to 13.5 billion yuan for 2025 [12] - Overseas Chinese Town A expects a net loss of between 13 billion to 15.5 billion yuan for 2025 [13] Group 5: Analyst Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that the recent ETF redemption wave has ended, and a recovery window for large-cap stocks is opening, with a focus on sectors with pricing power [13] - Shenwan Hongyuan predicts a range-bound market, with short-term adjustments expected as the market digests previous gains [14] - Guojin Securities emphasizes the importance of monitoring price increases across various sectors, including oil, chemicals, and consumer goods [18] - Industrial and resource sectors are expected to show clear paths to profit recovery, with attention on short-term pullback opportunities [24]

Core Viewpoint - The recent acceleration in sector rotation within the A-share market indicates a shift in investment strategies, with previously underperforming sectors like liquor and real estate gaining traction while high-performing sectors like technology and new energy are experiencing corrections [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent ETF redemption wave has largely ended, signaling a potential recovery window for large-cap stocks as funds shift from small-cap to large-cap and from thematic to quality styles [1]. - The market is currently experiencing a structural adjustment, with high turnover rates leading to increased volatility, particularly in sectors like metals, which have seen significant trading volume [2][11]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the underlying fundamentals supporting the spring market rally remain intact, driven by domestic economic improvements and favorable policies [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The performance of cyclical sectors is strong, supported by a recovery in profit margins, as China's policy focus shifts from expansion to quality enhancement [1]. - The liquor and real estate sectors have shown notable performance, reflecting a convergence in market structure as the spring rally progresses into its latter stages [8]. - The AI sector continues to be a focal point for growth, with expectations of significant earnings improvements, while traditional sectors like chemicals and power equipment remain solid investment choices [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - February is anticipated to continue the spring market rally, with structural opportunities emerging from macroeconomic catalysts and corporate earnings forecasts [2][4]. - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a stable upward trajectory supported by robust liquidity and favorable seasonal trends [4][6]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a balanced performance across various sectors, with an emphasis on both growth and value opportunities as the market evolves [8].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI declined more than seasonally with supply - demand converging and enterprise - scale differentiation intensifying, while price indices rose. The service industry PMI slightly dropped and the construction industry's prosperity significantly declined, thus more efforts are needed to promote economic - stabilizing policies [1][10][34]. - In January, the shock of sentiment was gradually digested, and the bond market recovered after adjustment. However, there were still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. The 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to the central part of the oscillation range in February. Two structural investment opportunities are recommended: the allocation opportunities of 5Y government - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds, and the spread - compression opportunities such as 10Y CDB - 10Y Treasury bonds [4][34][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - month PMI Data Overview - Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3% in January, returning to the contraction range and being weaker than the seasonal average. The production index expansion slowed, demand was under pressure, price indices rose, and enterprises replenished inventory passively with a decline in purchasing willingness [10]. - In the non - manufacturing sector, the service industry PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, and the construction industry's business activity index dropped by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8%, both showing different degrees of deviation from seasonal performance [11][14]. 3.2 Manufacturing: Demand - side Operation Under Pressure, Both Price Indices Rising - **Production**: The manufacturing PMI production index was 50.6% in January, down 1.1 percentage points month - on - month, weaker than the seasonal level. The slowdown was due to factors like cold weather and approaching Spring Festival, especially the over 4 - percentage - point decline in the consumer goods manufacturing production index [17]. - **Demand**: The new order index and new export order index of manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. The "new order - new export order" index dropped to 1.4%. Seasonal factors and external policy changes affected demand, but the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient market demand decreased [19]. - **Enterprise Scale and New Kinetic Energy**: The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises decreased by 0.5, 1.1, and 1.2 percentage points respectively. New kinetic energy industries continued to lead, while traditional industries' prosperity declined [20]. - **Price**: Affected by multiple factors, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, up 3.0 and 1.7 percentage points month - on - month. The index difference reached 5.5 percentage points, compressing the profit space of mid - and downstream enterprises [23]. - **Inventory**: The raw material inventory index decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the finished - product inventory increased by 0.4 percentage points. The economic kinetic energy index decreased by 2.0 percentage points, and the purchasing volume index dropped to 48.7%. The start of the replenishment cycle depends on the recovery of market demand [24]. 3.3 Non - manufacturing: Slight Decline in Service Industry PMI, Significant Decline in Construction Industry - **Service Industry**: In January, the service industry PMI slightly declined. The strong support from the financial industry, the stable development of new kinetic energy, and the good performance of some consumption - related service industries maintained its stability. However, the real - estate industry's business activity index fell below 40.0%, and Spring Festival consumption may boost the consumption - related service industries [29]. - **Construction Industry**: Due to cold weather and the approaching Spring Festival, the construction industry's business activity index decreased by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8% in January. Both housing construction and civil engineering construction activities slowed down, and the off - season characteristics may continue in February [32]. 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - In January, after the shock of sentiment was digested, the bond market recovered. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped to the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. With insufficient broad - money expectations and increased local - bond supply in February, the 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to the central part of the oscillation range. Two parts of structural investment opportunities are recommended [4][34][35].

Group 1 - The report suggests that the market remains resilient, with opportunities in consumer and real estate sectors, particularly during the pre-Spring Festival consumption peak, recommending investments in sectors like liquor, film, and tourism [4][18] - The bond market is expected to see the 10-year government bond yield fluctuate between 1.80% and 1.85% around the Spring Festival, with a need for new triggers to break below 1.80% [4][8] - The manufacturing PMI for January fell to 49.3%, indicating a return to contraction territory, primarily due to weak demand [8][9] Group 2 - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises showed a marginal improvement, with December profits turning from a decline of 13.1% in November to a growth of 5.3%, indicating a recovery trend [10] - The real estate sector is transitioning to a high-quality development phase, with regulatory measures in place to control debt levels among real estate companies, suggesting a shift from scale expansion to quality growth [11] - The report highlights the potential for structural opportunities in high-dividend assets such as banks, coal, oil, public utilities, and transportation [22] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the manufacturing PMI and its correlation with domestic economic policies and export market performance for future trends [9] - The commodity market is experiencing significant short-term shocks, with gold expected to maintain value for low-cost purchases amid macroeconomic fluctuations [17][18] - The report notes that the demand for copper is likely to increase as manufacturing resumes post-Spring Festival, with low inventory levels at the Shanghai Futures Exchange [8][17]

Economic Growth - In 2026, macro policies will focus on strengthening the domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand comprehensively[2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will optimize the support scope and subsidy standards of the "two new" policies[9] - A plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income will be developed[9] Infrastructure and Industry - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been allocated to support equipment upgrades, driving total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan[11] - Key policies will focus on emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and zero-carbon factories[11] Monetary Policy - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates[13] - A mechanism will be established to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios[13] Fiscal Policy - A package of fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand includes a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment[14] - The central government will advance 141 billion yuan in assistance funds for vulnerable groups in 2026[15] Real Estate Policy - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties has been adjusted to no less than 30%[17] Consumption Policy - The government will implement a dual-driven approach of "policy + activities" to boost consumption, focusing on key service sectors[20] Financial Regulation - Recent adjustments in trading regulations by commodity exchanges aim to stabilize the commodity futures market amid significant price fluctuations[23] Trade Relations - There is an opportunity for a new round of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations before April, with both sides expressing willingness to manage differences and promote cooperation[28] Risk Warning - There is a risk of continued divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[37]

第 5 周成交震荡，房企降杠杆有利未来高质量发展 [Table_Industry] 房地产 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | | | 谢盐(分析师) | 021-23185696 | xieyan@gtht.com | S0880525040098 | | | 本报告导读： 上周（1 月 23 日-29 日）地产成交涨跌互现。上市公司业绩逐步进入披露期，近年 来房企持续降杠杆有助于未来高质量发展。维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《商业不动产 REITs，资产出表再添工具》 2026.01.31 房地产《核心销售趋于均衡，投资开 ...

Economic Indicators - As of February 1, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 50.09%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.86%, up 0.02 percentage points[10] - The monthly ECI supply index for January is 50.02%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points from December, while the demand index is 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points[13] - The ELI index as of February 1, 2026, is -0.25%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points from last week[16] Industrial Production - The operating rate for automotive full steel tires is 62.44%, down 0.18 percentage points from last week, while the coke oven production rate is 70.73%, down 0.66 percentage points[22] - The high furnace operating rate is 79.02%, up 0.36 percentage points from last week, and up 1.02 percentage points year-on-year[21] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending January 18, 2026, is 50,171 units, a decrease of 23,608 units year-on-year[28] - The ticket revenue for the week is 1,327.85 million yuan, down 2,739.53 million yuan from last week and down 66,911.91 million yuan year-on-year[29] Real Estate Market - The transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities is 143.17 million square meters, up 23.18% from last week, while the second-hand home transaction area is 245.33 million square meters, down 2.35%[34] Export Performance - The SCFI index is 1,316.75, down 141.11 points from last week, while the Baltic Dry Index is 1,989.00, up 248.00 points[40] - The export growth rate for South Korea in the first 20 days of January is 14.90%, an increase of 8.20 percentage points from December and up 20.00% year-on-year[39]

Market Review - The A-share market showed divergence this week, with the Dividend Index and Shanghai 50 leading in gains, while the North China 50, CSI 2000, and STAR 50 lagged behind. The average daily trading volume remained around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a high risk appetite among investors. The petroleum, telecommunications, and coal sectors led the gains, while defense, power equipment, and automotive sectors lagged. Low-position sectors like real estate and liquor also saw a strong rebound at one point. In the commodity market, precious metals prices plummeted, with silver and gold dropping by 26.42% and 9.25% respectively. The geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran drove international oil prices up, with WTI crude and ICE Brent rising by 7.65% and 7.32% respectively. The US dollar index exhibited a V-shaped trend, with the offshore yuan depreciating slightly against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that policy support will continue to drive medium- to long-term capital inflows into the market. Despite signs of a temporary market adjustment amid increasing external disturbances, there remains ample space and opportunities for the current market trend from a mid-term perspective. The net outflow of stock ETFs has adjusted trading rhythms, but overall trading volume remains high, reflecting strong investor interest in high-growth sectors. The regulatory focus is on cultivating "patient capital" and increasing the participation of insurance and pension funds in the market, aiming to solidify the foundation for a slow bull market. The domestic demand showed marginal decline in January, but the recovery in price indices and sustained high growth in high-tech manufacturing create conditions for corporate profit recovery. With the narrowing decline in PPI, corporate profits are expected to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026 [2][4]. Economic Fundamentals - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, and the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4%, both below the expansion threshold, indicating a marginal decline in domestic demand. However, improvements in prices and sustained high growth in new economic drivers were noted. The purchasing price index and the factory price index rose to 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, indicating overall price improvement in the manufacturing market, which is expected to narrow the PPI decline further. The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 52.0% for two consecutive months, reflecting sustained high growth in new economic drivers, while traditional sectors like consumer goods and high-energy industries showed marginal declines [3][4]. Capital Market Policies - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to consolidating the positive momentum in the capital market and is intensifying efforts to cultivate patient capital and promote medium- to long-term capital inflows. On January 30, CSRC Chairman Wu Qing held a meeting to discuss enhancing the adaptability of regulatory frameworks, improving the quality and investment value of listed companies, and increasing the efficiency of refinancing. As of the end of 2025, various types of medium- to long-term capital held A-share circulating market value reached 23 trillion yuan, a 36% increase from the beginning of the year. Looking ahead to 2026, under the policy framework focused on stability, the regulatory authorities will continue to promote the increase in the scale of medium- to long-term capital entering the market [4][5]. Micro Liquidity - Since the beginning of the year, there has been a large-scale redemption of stock ETFs, with a cumulative net redemption of 792.2 billion yuan, primarily concentrated in broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 and Shanghai 50. Despite this, the A-share market remains active, with trading volumes around 3 trillion yuan. Financing funds saw a net inflow of 16.1 billion yuan this week, indicating strong support for high-growth sectors. Although the A-share market has shown signs of temporary adjustment, there is still ample space and opportunities compared to previous bull markets. The report suggests focusing on high-growth technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and energy storage, as well as cyclical commodities related to price increases [5][4].