1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares are mainly speculating on the "anti-involution" policy and the beneficiary sectors of the Yarlung Zangbo River project. The news of the official launch of the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 this year has driven the strength of relevant beneficiary sectors. With overall positive domestic and overseas factors, A - share liquidity and market sentiment are strong, and stock index is expected to run strongly. The strategy is mainly to adjust and go long [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - DR001 rose more than 28bp to 1.65%, and DR007 rose 9.33bp to 1.58%. GC001 fell 48.50bp to 1.09%, and GC007 rose 1.50bp to 1.58%. SHBOR 3M rose 0.20bp to 1.55%, and LPR 5 - year remained unchanged at 3.50%. The yield of 1 - year treasury bond rose to 1.39, 5 - year treasury bond rose to 1.59, 10 - year treasury bond rose to 1.74, and 10 - year US bond rose 5.00bp to 4.40% [3] - The central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 119.5 billion yuan. There are 1726.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 25 [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - At the close yesterday, CSI 300 rose 0.71% to 4149, SSE 50 rose 0.4% to 2812.4, CSI 500 rose 1.56% to 6293.6, and CSI 1000 rose 1.42% to 6701.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1844.7 billion yuan, a slight contraction of 19.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with only the precious metals and banking sectors falling [4] - The trading volume of IF decreased by 12.9%, and the position increased by 0.9%; the trading volume of IH decreased by 19.5%, and the position increased by 0.1%; the trading volume of IC decreased by 9.3%, and the position increased by 0.7%; the trading volume of IM decreased by 3.1%, and the position remained unchanged [4] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 0.81%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 2.42% respectively; those of IH are - 1.74%, - 0.95%, - 0.49%, and - 0.30% respectively; those of IC are 6.33%, 6.88%, 7.41%, and 7.18% respectively; those of IM are 6.27%, 7.89%, 9.78%, and 9.75% respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing financial services for rural reform and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization, highlighting the role of financial resources in supporting agricultural development and rural economies [1][3]. Financial Resource Allocation - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have issued opinions to increase financial resource allocation to key areas of rural revitalization, particularly focusing on major grain-producing regions and counties [2][4]. - As of March 2024, the balance of agricultural loans reached 52.9 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year growth [1]. Policy Support and Mechanisms - The opinions propose a comprehensive use of monetary and credit policies to encourage financial institutions to issue specialized bonds for agriculture, small and micro enterprises, and green projects, as well as support eligible companies in issuing rural revitalization bonds [3][9]. - The article mentions that since the issuance of rural revitalization government bonds began in 2018, a total of 699 bonds have been issued, amounting to 502.526 billion yuan by February 28, 2025 [9][10]. Specific Financial Strategies - The article outlines several strategies to enhance financial services in rural areas: - Strengthening financial support for grain security and agricultural infrastructure [4]. - Continuing differentiated financial support policies for poverty alleviation regions [5]. - Innovating financing models for rural specialty products and expanding collateral options [6]. - Providing diversified financing solutions for rural infrastructure and public services [7]. - Enhancing financial services for rural governance and integrating cultural and tourism sectors [8]. Innovation in Financing Mechanisms - The development of rural revitalization bonds is highlighted as a significant innovation in financing mechanisms, with suggestions for improving issuance and trading rules, as well as establishing evaluation mechanisms for these bonds [10].

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331 billion yuan at a fixed rate with an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 331 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 331 billion yuan. On the same day, 450 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market's funding conditions have tightened further, with a decrease in funding supply. The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) rose nearly 28 basis points, surpassing the 1.65% mark. In the overseas market, the latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.28% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64% [6] Bond Market - The yields on medium to long-term bonds in the interbank market increased by approximately 3 basis points, while government bond futures saw a significant decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.92% [8][10] Government Bond Futures - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.92%, the 10-year main contract down 0.29%, the 5-year main contract down 0.21%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.07% [10] Policy Announcements - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft for public consultation on the amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify standards for unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping and price collusion [11] - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued opinions to enhance financial services for rural reforms, emphasizing increased financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization and innovative financing models [11] - Beijing's Development and Reform Commission reported that all 320 major projects in the city commenced in the first half of the year, with investment growth of 14.1%, outpacing the national growth rate of 11.3% [12] Global Macro - The Reserve Bank of Australia's chairman expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5%, while the global economy faces uncertainty. Monthly data suggests that core CPI may not meet expectations, prompting a cautious and gradual easing path [14] Bond Market Events - In June, the northbound trading of Bond Connect reached 852.8 billion yuan, and in the first half of the year, securities firms underwrote technology innovation bonds totaling 381.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.48% [16]

Group 1: Public Fund Market - The total scale of public funds in China has surpassed 34.39 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, marking the ninth historical high since the beginning of 2024 [1] - In June, bond funds saw an increase of over 500 billion yuan, while stock and mixed funds each grew by over 100 billion yuan [1] - QDII funds experienced a slight growth of 294.95 million yuan, whereas money market funds shrank by over 160 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Banking and Financing - In Guangdong, a total of 17 village banks have been approved for absorption and merger, with 2 banks dissolved and 9 merged this year [2] - Hong Kong's new stock financing reached 14.1 billion USD in the first half of 2025, a 695% increase compared to the same period in 2024, leading the global market [2] - The Hang Seng Index rose over 20% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong investor interest from both international and mainland Chinese investors [2] Group 3: Renewable Energy - The solar photovoltaic industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of 5% to 10% in new installations for 2025, with diverse regional distribution anticipated [3] - The demand for photovoltaic components is expected to increase due to significant cost reductions in energy storage systems [3] Group 4: Data Warehouse Software Market - The Chinese data warehouse software market is projected to reach 2.09 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.5% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - The market size for the second half of 2024 is estimated at 550 million USD, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth [3] Group 5: Corporate Developments - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, indicated that many well-known film companies, including those from Hollywood, are interested in producing movies based on the LABUBU IP [4] - Li Jiaqi is set to announce a compensation plan for users who purchased the "Bojue Travel" package, with options for full refunds or care funds [5] - Cao Cao Travel established a new company in Fuzhou with a registered capital of 20 million yuan, focusing on new energy technology and electric vehicle sales [5] Group 6: Financial Performance - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation reported a 2% year-on-year increase in oil and gas equivalent production for the first half of 2025 [7] - Zheshang Securities achieved a net profit of 1.149 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 46.54% increase year-on-year [8] - Dahu Co., Ltd. reduced its losses to 257.16 million yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 1.378 billion yuan in the same period last year [9] - Leshan Electric's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 7.9031 million yuan, a decrease of 14.55% year-on-year [10] - Zhimin Da reported a net profit of 38.3 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a significant increase of 2147.93% year-on-year [11] Group 7: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, closing above 3600 points, with over 4300 stocks in the market experiencing gains [12] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of 19.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [12]

华侨银行经济学家Vasu Menon指出，尽管特朗普政府持续施压，美联储本月仍不太可能启动降息。但其强调，未来数月 美国通胀及经济表现将成为关键决策依据。"期货市场定价显示，交易员虽不预期本月会降息，但预计2024年底前将有 一至两次降息，2025年将进一步宽松，"Menon表示。根据其预测，未来12个月内美联储可能累计降息四次。 道明证券亚太区高级利率策略师Prashant Newnaha表示，市场将美日达成贸易协议视为意外利好，原因有二：其一，自 民党失去参议院多数席位后，外界原本预期贸易谈判将推迟；其二，15%的关税水平低于特朗普4月及本月早些时候威 胁征收的24%-25%。但该协议的一个潜在隐患在于特朗普要求日本向美国农产品开放市场。这一要求可能在落实过程中 面临重大政治阻力，并进一步动摇日本本已脆弱的政治局势。 分析师指出，黄金，昨天大幅加速上涨，今天早盘最高冲击3438一线，市场看涨声震天，能不能延续上涨并有效突破震 荡区间，本周是关键。 昨日黄金市场早盘开盘在3397的位置后行情小幅拉升给出3402.9的位置后行情强势回落，日渐最低给到了3382.9的位置 后行情强势拉升，盘中破位3420的三角 ...

Market Overview - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that in the first half of 2025, cross-border income and expenditure reached a record high of $7.6 trillion, with a net inflow of $127.3 billion from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of last year [1] - The USD/CNY exchange rate appreciated by 1.9% in the first half of the year, with no significant expectations for further appreciation or depreciation in the market [1] Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% reciprocal tariff and a $550 billion investment from Japan into the U.S. market, alongside market openings for products like automobiles and rice [1] - The Philippines is set to open its market to the U.S. with zero tariffs, while the U.S. will impose a 19% tariff on imports from the Philippines [1] Monetary Policy - Trump has called for a 3% reduction in interest rates, criticizing the current rates for negatively impacting the housing market [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin noted that tariff revenues could account for 1% of U.S. GDP, potentially reaching $2.8 trillion over the next decade [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% in the upcoming meeting, despite recent political developments [2] Global Market Dynamics - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.4% and the Nasdaq down 0.39% [3] - Precious metals futures saw gains, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.10% to $3,444.00 per ounce [3] - Oil prices experienced slight declines, with WTI crude oil down 0.76% to $65.45 per barrel [3] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down 3.17 basis points to 4.344% [3] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.49%, while most non-USD currencies appreciated against the dollar [3]

Group 1 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that foreign capital's investment in RMB assets remains stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion [2] - In the first half of the year, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions [2] - The Central Huijin Investment Company significantly increased its holdings in ETFs by over $200 billion in Q2 2025, aligning with policy directions to stabilize market expectations [6] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year increase of 7.1% in the total balance of RMB loans, reaching 268.56 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3] - The balance of loans to enterprises and institutions in both RMB and foreign currencies reached 182.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [3] - Fixed asset loans increased by 7.8% year-on-year, totaling 76.82 trillion yuan, indicating a positive trend in investment [3] Group 3 - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Company aims to advance the commercialization of fusion energy, with significant capital involvement from various state-owned enterprises [7] - The recent surge in industrial commodity futures, including coal and silicon, reflects a strong market response to government policies aimed at reducing overproduction [8] Group 4 - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list revealed that the total revenue of the listed companies was $14.2 trillion, a decrease of approximately 2.7% from the previous year, while net profits increased by about 7% [13] - State Grid Corporation topped the list with a revenue of $548.4 billion, followed by China Petroleum and Sinopec [13]

Macro Dynamics - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of Q2 2025, the balance of household loans in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 84.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with an increase of 1.17 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [1] - The balance of operational loans was 25.09 trillion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 923.8 billion yuan in the first half [1] - The balance of consumption loans, excluding personal housing loans, was 21.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with an increase of 195 billion yuan in the first half [1] Foreign Exchange and Investment - According to a survey by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, 30% of global central banks indicated plans to increase their allocation of RMB assets, highlighting the stability of the RMB and its independent yield performance as important for global investors [2] - As of June 2025, foreign institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan in interbank market bonds, accounting for approximately 2.5% of the total custody amount, with 2.10 trillion yuan in government bonds [3] Financial Institutions - The chairman of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China met with the mayor and party secretary of Chongqing to discuss deepening cooperation and supporting high-quality development in the region [6] - CITIC Securities Asset Management announced the conversion of nine collective asset management plans to public fund products under Huaxia Fund, with a mix of bond and mixed funds [7] - Industrial Bank stated that it currently has no sales revenue in EU countries [8] Market Data - A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.62%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.84%, and ChiNext Index up 0.61%, driven by strong performances in coal and engineering machinery sectors [10] - The total margin balance in the two markets increased by 15.24 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange margin balance at 959.61 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Exchange at 938.88 billion yuan [11] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.54%, with significant gains in the infrastructure sector [12] Company Dynamics - China National Nuclear Power announced plans to invest 1 billion yuan in China Fusion Energy Co., acquiring a 6.65% stake, while the parent company will hold 50.35% post-transaction [15] - Kweichow Moutai announced a 490 million yuan investment to establish a scientific research institute in collaboration with its parent company [15] - Several Starbucks locations have introduced study rooms that do not require payment or reservation, providing free amenities to customers [16] - A new renewable energy generation company has been established in Xinjiang, co-owned by Huaneng and Xinjiang Huayuan Electronic Technology [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability and resilience of China's foreign exchange market in the context of a complex global economic environment, highlighting key factors that support this stability, including economic growth, high-level opening up, and enhanced market resilience [3][5]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with domestic demand contributing 77% to economic growth, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The service trade deficit decreased by 14%, with service trade income growing by 13% and cross-border travel income increasing by 42% [10]. Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics - In the first half of the year, there was a net inflow of $127.3 billion from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of the previous year, with a 46% increase in net inflow in the second quarter [6]. - The total net increase in foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds was $10.1 billion, reversing the net selling trend of the past two years [7]. - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, maintaining stability within a range of 7.15 to 7.35 [12]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors' holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeded $600 billion, indicating a stable investment environment [7]. - A survey indicated that 30% of global central banks plan to increase their allocation of RMB assets, reflecting the asset's appeal for diversification and risk management [8]. Banking Sector Developments - Six new banks initiated foreign exchange business reforms in the first half of the year, bringing the total to 22 banks involved in these reforms [9]. - The total volume of foreign exchange transactions in the domestic RMB market reached $21 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [14]. Overall Market Activity - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure reached $7.6 trillion, marking a historical high for the same period [16]. - The combined scale of bank settlements and sales of foreign exchange was $2.3 trillion, the second-highest for the same period historically [15].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The capital flow of wealth management products is an important influencing factor in the credit bond market. This report analyzes the changes in wealth management scale and bond - allocation behavior under the background of net - value transformation to enrich the credit bond analysis framework [1][9] Group 2: Wealth Management Scale Trends 2.1 Overall Scale and New Product Term - Deposit interest rate decline drives deposit transfer to wealth management, leading to an increase in wealth management scale. As of Q1 2025, the wealth management product scale reached 29.14 trillion yuan. The average 1 - year fixed - deposit rate of the six major banks was only 0.96% in June 2025, while the wealth management yield was 3.01%. Newly issued products are mainly closed - end, and the term of new products has been extended, with the proportion of new wealth management products with a term over 1 year reaching 47% in June 2025, up about 14 percentage points from March 2024 [10][12] 2.2 Main Expansion Force - Open - ended products are more popular among individual investors. In 2024, the scale of open - ended products increased by 2.7 trillion yuan year - on - year, while that of closed - ended products increased by only 160 billion yuan. The minimum - holding - period products are the main expansion force of wealth management products in 2024, balancing liquidity and yield. As of the end of June 2025, the average maximum drawdown of minimum - holding - period products in the past 1 year was 0.18%, the lowest among open - ended products, and the average annualized yield in the past 1 year reached 2.53%, about 70bp higher than daily - open products [16][17] Group 3: Impact of the "Impossible Triangle" on Bond - Allocation Style 3.1 Bond Allocation Changes - To stabilize the net value of wealth management products, wealth management has reduced bond allocation in recent years and increased the allocation of cash and bank deposits with higher liquidity and lower valuation fluctuations. As of Q1 2025, the scale of wealth management investment in bonds, cash and bank deposits, and inter - bank certificates of deposit was 13.68 trillion yuan, 7.27 trillion yuan, and 4.20 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of the total investment assets, with changes of - 6.5%, 5.8%, and 0.2% respectively compared to Q4 2022 [23] 3.2 Credit Bond Allocation - Credit bonds are the main investment direction of wealth management funds, accounting for 41% of the total investment assets. As of the end of 2024, the proportions of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds in bond investment were 5% and 95% respectively. In Q1 2025, wealth management preferred to allocate urban investment bonds, secondary perpetual bonds, and industrial bonds, accounting for 35%, 26%, and 23% of credit bonds respectively. Due to the short - term nature of most wealth management products and the instability of the liability side, the duration of credit bond allocation is short [33][37] 3.3 Increased Fund Entrustment - It is difficult for wealth management to meet the performance benchmark by directly investing in bonds. In Q2 2025, the wealth management performance benchmark dropped to 2.88%, still 84 - 87bp higher than the yields of 3Y AA(2) urban investment bonds and 7Y AA+ secondary perpetual bonds. With the blockage of insurance and trust channels, wealth management has increased entrusted investment in funds. The proportion of wealth management's penetrated investment in funds has been rising, indicating an increasing importance of entrusted funds [39][47] 3.4 Bond - Buying Behavior after Self - Built Valuation Model Restrictions - The "self - built valuation model" is a new way for wealth management to smooth net - value fluctuations but has problems such as liquidity risk and unfair returns. After the restriction of the self - built valuation model, some wealth management may reduce the allocation of long - term secondary perpetual bonds and medium - low - rated credit bonds and increase the allocation of short - term high - rated bonds [52][53] Group 4: Impact of Wealth Management on the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Influence of Scale Changes - The bond - allocation rhythm of wealth management is highly correlated with the scale change, which affects the credit spread trend. When the wealth management scale rises, the credit spread tends to narrow; when it falls, the credit spread tends to widen. The seasonal change of wealth management scale also makes the credit spread show seasonal characteristics. Quarter - beginning is a good time for credit spread compression, especially from August to the end of the year. September is a good allocation window, but beware of widening credit spreads in November [3][57] 4.2 Observing Market Adjustment from Wealth Management - During bond market adjustments, pay attention to the risk of "redemption tides". The "redemption tide" occurs when wealth management passively sells bonds due to significant net - value drawdowns. The "redemption tide" is accompanied by an increase in the net - value break - even rate. When the weekly环比 change of the 4 - week rolling net - value break - even rate exceeds 6%, the possibility of a "redemption tide" increases. The maximum drawdown rate of wealth management products can be a leading indicator of credit spread changes, leading by about 7 - 60 days [3][64]