Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Insights - The company's sales significantly recovered in H2 2025, and production guidance for 2026 has been further increased. The decline in performance for 2025 is primarily attributed to pricing, with signs of a bottoming out in performance, and 2026 is expected to see both volume and price increases. The financial statements remain robust [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 was AUD 5,949 million, a decrease of 13.3% year-on-year. Net profit was AUD 440 million, down 63.8% year-on-year. The company ended 2025 with a cash balance of AUD 2,043 million, indicating a net cash position. The total dividend for 2025 was AUD 0.182 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 55% [4][10]. Production and Sales Performance - The company achieved a total coal production of 38.6 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%, reaching the upper limit of the annual guidance. Sales volume was 38.1 million tons, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year. The increase in metallurgical coal sales by 17% was primarily due to higher production from the Yarrabee mine and improved coal quality from the Walker and Hunter Valley mines. H2 2025 sales reached 21.5 million tons, a significant 30% increase quarter-on-quarter [10]. Price and Cost Analysis - The average selling price for the year was AUD 146 per ton, down 17% year-on-year. The average prices for H1 and H2 were AUD 149 and AUD 144 per ton, respectively. The cash operating cost for 2025 was AUD 92 per ton, a decrease of 1% year-on-year. The cost guidance for 2026 is set between AUD 90-98 per ton, reflecting a slight increase due to inflation considerations [10]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of the end of the reporting period in 2025, the company reported operating cash flow of AUD 1,257 million, significantly exceeding net profit. The company has maintained a net cash position since 2022, with a net debt-to-equity ratio of zero and cash holdings of AUD 2,100 million [10][11].

2026年03月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 2 | | 硅铁：电费成本预期扰动，价格偏强震荡 | 4 | | 锰硅：海外远期矿价抬升，价格偏强震荡 | 4 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发酵，震荡偏弱 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 2 日 螺纹钢：震荡反复 热轧卷板：震荡反复 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,067 | 1 | 0.03 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3, ...

Group 1 - The coal stocks have mostly risen, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - Mongol Mining (00975.HK) increased by 6.24%, reaching HKD 13.28 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) rose by 3.15%, reaching HKD 13.41 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668.HK) saw a rise of 5.17%, reaching HKD 35 [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) increased by 1.93%, reaching HKD 14.27 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive last week, with the prices of finished steel products rebounding slightly. However, the fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations, and the prices are likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern in the short term. The core contradictions are inventory digestion and demand verification. [3] - For iron ore, after the end of the weather impact, overseas supply has recovered, and high inventory suppresses the price increase. Although the demand for molten iron has recovered well, the price is expected to be range - bound and weak. [6] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, in the medium - to - long - term, the bullish trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the short - term market may continue the shock and volatility - reduction cycle. The black sector is still in a weak state and is likely to be short - sold. [11] - For coking coal and coke, in the medium - to - long - term, the bullish trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the short - term market may be in a shock and volatility - reduction cycle. The black sector is weak, and there is a risk of short - term callback for coking coal. It may have a relatively smooth upward trend from June to October. [17] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with prices moving in a range. For polysilicon, the futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see. [20][23] - For glass, the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. For soda ash, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock and consolidation pattern. [26][28] Summary by Categories Steel - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3067 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.130%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 9328 tons, a decrease of 10269 tons from the previous day. The main contract position was 1.9482 million lots, a decrease of 4226 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3215 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 352247 tons, an increase of 1477 tons. The main contract position was 1.492 million lots, a decrease of 791 lots. [2] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The output of hot - rolled coils is basically the same as before the holiday, and the apparent demand has recovered quickly after the holiday, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the production and sales recovery rhythm not fully restored and the inventory accumulation speed relatively fast, but still within a controllable range. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, the price is difficult to reverse the trend and is likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern. [3] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 750.50 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.27% (+ 2.00), and the position increased by 6109 lots to 546700 lots. The weighted position was 946200 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 752 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.39 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.94%. [5] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments have returned to the same - period high after the elimination of weather disturbances during the Spring Festival. In terms of demand, the daily average molten iron output has increased to 2332800 tons. The molten iron production is expected to be affected briefly during the important meeting. The port inventory has started to accumulate again, and the steel mill inventory has dropped to a low level. The price is expected to be range - bound and weak. [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: On February 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 1.82% to close at 6026 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a discount of 86 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) rose 3.39% to close at 5726 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton to the futures price. [9] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The rise of ferrosilicon last week was mainly affected by rumors of rising power costs in South Africa and the imposition of ecological export tariffs on manganese ore. In the medium - to - long - term, the bullish trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the short - term market may be in a shock and volatility - reduction cycle. The black sector is weak. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. [11][12] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes**: On February 27, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) rebounded after hitting the bottom, rising 0.32% to close at 1093.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) fell 0.52% to close at 1635.5 yuan/ton. [14] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke were range - bound and weak. After the end of pre - holiday replenishment by downstream steel mills and coking plants, the downstream will enter the active de - stocking stage until mid - April, which restricts consumption. At the same time, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the coal output is increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the bullish trend of commodities is expected to continue, but there is a risk of short - term callback for coking coal, and it may have a relatively smooth upward trend from June to October. [16][17] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) on Friday was 8395 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.72% (+ 60). The weighted contract position increased by 3519 lots to 445190 lots. The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) on Friday was 46495 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.39% (+ 180). The weighted contract position remained unchanged at 65703 lots. [19][21] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: For industrial silicon, it is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with prices moving in a range. For polysilicon, the futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see. [20][23] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of glass closed at 1058 yuan/ton on Friday, down 0.56% (- 6). The main contract of soda ash closed at 1191 yuan/ton on Friday, with no change. [25][27] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: For glass, the supply is stable, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. For soda ash, the market sentiment is still wait - and - see, the demand is slowly released, the supply is relatively stable, and the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock and consolidation pattern. [26][28]

双焦震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 焦煤焦炭周报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 矿山复产较快 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 下游：钢厂节后逐步复产，不过受到两会召开影响，唐 山等地区钢厂阶段性限产，铁水产量偏弱运行，消耗自 身库存为主，原料需求受限。 ⚫ 中游：焦化利润节后反弹，焦企开工回升，焦炭产量增 加，但销售不畅库存有所增加。全国平均吨焦盈利-8（环 比持平）元/吨。上周产能利用率为74.36%（+1.47）； 焦炭日均产量64.29（+0.55）万吨，焦炭库存107.82 （+7.54）万吨。 ⚫ 上游：节后国内煤矿逐步复产，产量环比增加，库存上 升， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may lead to an increase in coal prices, as rising oil prices could positively impact coal demand and pricing [1] - The report highlights the historical price correlation between oil and coal, noting that the price ratio has remained stable between 2 to 3 over the past two years, indicating a potential short-term linkage between the two commodities [1] - The Middle East is a major source of methanol imports for China, with over 70% of imports expected to come from this region by 2025, suggesting that disruptions in logistics could further increase domestic demand for coal-based methanol [1] Group 2 - Apart from geopolitical factors, the reduction in coal supply from Indonesia is also a significant support for current coal prices, as the Indonesian government has been cutting coal production quotas, tightening supply for China and driving up prices for Australian coal imports [2] - The report forecasts that the price of North Port 5500 kcal thermal coal may rise above 800 RMB per ton within a month, with an average price expected to exceed 750 RMB per ton in the second quarter [2] - The report recommends investing in undervalued companies with coal chemical operations and those with a relatively high proportion of chemical coal sales, as well as companies with coal resources in Indonesia [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: March 2, 2026 [1] Group 2: Price Information - **Domestic Coking Coal Prices**: - Liulin Main Coking Coal: The latest price is 1483.00, with a year - on - year change of 13.47% [2] - Raw Coal Port Delivery Price: The latest price is 995.00, with a daily change of - 6.00, a weekly change of - 20.00, a monthly change of - 45.00, and a year - on - year change of 13.07% [2] - Shaheyi Meng 5: The latest price is 1400.00, with a year - on - year change of 7.69% [2] - Anze Main Coking Coal: The latest price is 1520.00, with a daily change of - 50.00, a weekly change of - 50.00, a monthly change of - 120.00, and a year - on - year change of 15.15% [2] - **International Coking Coal Prices**: - Peak Downs: The latest price is 218.00, with a weekly change of - 2.00, a monthly change of - 43.00, and a year - on - year change of 22.00 [2] - Goonyella: The latest price is 218.00, with a weekly change of - 2.00, a monthly change of - 43.00, and a year - on - year change of 21.00 [2] - **Futures Prices**: - Futures Contract 05: The latest price is 1082.50, with a daily change of - 19.00, a weekly change of - 37.50, a monthly change of - 42.50, and a year - on - year change of - 0.51% [2] - Futures Contract 09: The latest price is 1181.50, with a daily change of - 6.50, a weekly change of - 20.00, a monthly change of - 15.00, and a year - on - year change of 0.81% [2] - Futures Contract 01: The latest price is 1370.00, with a daily change of - 0.50, a weekly change of - 6.50, a monthly change of 8.00, and a year - on - year change of 11.47% [2] Group 3: Inventory Information - Total Inventory: The latest inventory is 3790.71, with a monthly change of - 339.54 and a year - on - year change of - 11.57% [2] - Coal Mine Inventory: The latest inventory is 257.66, with a weekly change of 6.04, a monthly change of - 9.52, and a year - on - year change of - 33.86% [2] - Port Inventory: The latest inventory is 258.41, with a monthly change of - 30.97 and a year - on - year change of - 38.05% [2] - Steel Mill Coking Coal Inventory: The latest inventory is 820.35, with a weekly change of - 17.90, a monthly change of 17.11, and a year - on - year change of 8.21% [2] - Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory: The latest inventory is 1079.09, with a weekly change of - 250.90, a monthly change of - 98.62, and a year - on - year change of 32.00% [2] - Coking Plant Coke Inventory: The latest inventory is 86.09, with a daily change of - 0.24, a monthly change of 0.18, and a year - on - year change of - 1.11% [2] Group 4: Other Information - Coking Capacity Utilization Rate: The latest rate is 74.36, with a weekly change of 1.47, a monthly change of 2.50, and a year - on - year change of 3.84% [2] - **Futures Basis and Spread**: - 05 Basis: The latest basis is 9.22, with a daily change of 19.00, a weekly change of 3.02, a monthly change of - 0.03, and a year - on - year change of 128.49 [2] - 09 Basis: The latest basis is - 89.78, with a daily change of 6.50, a weekly change of - 14.48, a monthly change of - 27.53, and a year - on - year change of - 0.56 [2] - 01 Basis: The latest basis is - 278.28, with a daily change of 0.50, a weekly change of - 27.98, a monthly change of - 50.53, and a year - on - year change of 0.07 [2] - 5 - 9 Spread: The latest spread is - 99.00, with a daily change of - 12.50, a weekly change of - 17.50, a monthly change of - 27.50, and a year - on - year change of 0.18 [2] - 9 - 1 Spread: The latest spread is - 188.50, with a daily change of - 6.00, a weekly change of - 13.50, a monthly change of - 23.00, and a year - on - year change of 2.31 [2] - 1 - 5 Spread: The latest spread is 287.50, with a daily change of 18.50, a weekly change of 31.00, a monthly change of 50.50, and a year - on - year change of 1.04 [2]

Core Insights - The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold while suggesting short-term attention on oil and copper [2] - A-shares sentiment index is rising, while Hong Kong stocks sentiment index is declining, leading to a bullish position on A-shares and a neutral stance on Hong Kong stocks [2] - Current institutional focus is on basic chemicals and the automotive industry, with a decrease in attention towards non-bank financial sectors [2] A-shares and Hong Kong Stocks Sentiment Tracking - The A-shares sentiment index has increased, and the VIX for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 has decreased, indicating a bullish timing strategy for A-shares [2][5] - The Hong Kong stocks sentiment index has decreased, leading to a neutral timing strategy for the Hang Seng Index [2][14] Institutional Research and Crowding Indicators - Current institutional focus is on the electric power and public utilities and automotive sectors, while attention towards retail and non-bank financial sectors has decreased [26] - Recent increases in institutional attention have been noted in coal, electric power and public utilities, banking, non-bank financials, and media sectors [27] - Several industries, including oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, and building materials, are at the threshold of crowding indicators [36][37] A-shares Style and Sector Allocation - The current allocation based on the A-shares industry and style rotation index favors media, electronics, automotive, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors [42] Commodities - The VIX for gold and silver has decreased from high levels, while copper and oil are experiencing high volatility [44] - The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold due to declining U.S. real interest rates, increased market volatility, rising geopolitical risks, and growing demand for gold [50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have reached a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery will go through four processes: restoring central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and exceeding the breakeven point for power plants, which is estimated to be around 750 RMB per ton in 2025. The upper limit for coal prices is projected to be between 800-860 RMB per ton [4][15] - The report highlights that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is a significant variable that could catalyze coal prices upward if tensions persist, affecting oil and chemical prices [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The report outlines that the price of thermal coal will experience upward movement due to the restoration of long-term contracts and the profit-sharing mechanism between coal and power companies. The current market price has already recovered to the expected profit-sharing line of 750 RMB per ton, with a potential peak at 860 RMB [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The target prices for coking coal are set at 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB based on the price ratios [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for rebound, supported by supply-side policies and seasonal demand increases. The report identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][16] Market Performance - The coal index increased by 5.92%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.84 percentage points. Major coal companies saw significant gains, with the top performers being 江钨装备 (+38.99%), 兖矿能源 (+2.13%), and 中煤能源 (+5.2%) [10][30]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may lead to an increase in oil prices, which could subsequently drive up coal prices. Additionally, disruptions in the trade logistics of chemical products like methanol may boost domestic coal consumption in the coal chemical sector, creating a favorable outlook for coal prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The potential rise in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions could positively impact coal prices [1] - Disruptions in the logistics of chemical products may increase domestic coal demand in the coal chemical industry [1] Group 2: Recommendations - Companies with coal chemical operations that are undervalued are recommended for investment [1] - Attention is drawn to companies with a relatively high proportion of coal sales in the chemical sector [1] - Companies with coal resources in Indonesia are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1]