1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Continued significant increase in crude oil prices, with a focus on investment opportunities in the energy - chemical sector [1] - The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven", and the performance - supported sectors and policy - beneficiary sectors may have sustainable opportunities. Long - term stock index trends will return to the domestic fundamentals [11] - Geopolitical tensions and central bank policies will impact the prices of various commodities, and each commodity's price will be affected by its own supply - demand fundamentals [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - China urges all parties to stop military actions in the Strait of Hormuz area to avoid the escalation of the tense situation and prevent greater impacts on the global economy [5] 3.1.2 Domestic News - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. High - tech manufacturing maintained expansion [6] 3.1.3 National Congress News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5th to 12th. The country will adhere to expanding domestic demand, boost consumption, and strengthen original innovation and key core technology research [8] 3.2.外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 rose by 0.78%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell by 1.60%, ICE Brent crude oil rose by 0.76%, and other varieties also had corresponding price changes [9] 3.3.主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven", with a focus on high - performance sectors. Short - term geopolitical factors may lead to risk aversion, while long - term trends depend on domestic fundamentals [11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Slight increase, affected by factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, and domestic economic data. Short - term prices are supported, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and policies from the Two Sessions [12] 3.3.2 Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: SC night - session rose 9%. Tensions in the Middle East led to a reduction in Iraqi oil production and potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up oil prices [2][13] - **Methanol**: Night - session fell 3.14%. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was stable. Coastal methanol inventories increased steadily [3][14] - **Natural Rubber**: Prices declined on Wednesday. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [15] - **Polyolefins**: Positive closing, with a night - session consolidation. With the increase in international crude oil prices, a bullish view is taken [17] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures fell. There is inventory pressure on both, and attention should be paid to supply - side restoration and demand - side recovery [18] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Fluctuated and consolidated. In the short term, they are affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inflation expectations. In the long term, the price center will continue to rise [19] - **Copper**: Night - session rose 0.04%. Concentrate supply is tight, and short - term prices may fluctuate within a range [20] - **Zinc**: Night - session rose 0.74%. Concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [21] - **Aluminum**: Night - session rose 2.65%. Supply risks are increasing, with short - term macro - driven and long - term support from low inventories and stable demand [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term heat has decreased. The conflict in the Middle East has little impact, and prices will return to the supply - demand fundamentals in the long run [24] 3.3.4 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Night - session rebounded slightly. The improvement in iron - water production is expected to support prices, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [25] - **Steel**: The conflict in the Middle East has limited direct impact, and prices are mainly determined by domestic fundamentals. Cost - side support may lead to short - term stabilization [26] - **Iron Ore**: The conflict has short - term emotional and cost - support impacts. Prices may stop falling and stabilize in the short term [27] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The situation in Iran may affect the sugar - making ratio, and domestic prices are expected to rise slightly but with limited upside [28] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures showed signs of recovery. In the long term, prices may rise due to supply - demand tightness. Consider buying on dips [30] - **Protein Meal**: Night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal fell. US biofuel policies and Brazilian weather may affect prices, and domestic prices are affected by import costs [31] - **Oils and Fats**: Night - session was weak. US biofuel policies and the Malaysian palm oil market will affect prices, and short - term high - level fluctuations are expected [32] - **Hogs**: The market is in a weak and stable state with regional differentiation. Supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain weak below the cost line [33] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: EC hit the daily limit again at the end of the session. Market expectations are strong, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause fluctuations in freight rates [34]

Report Summary Core View - EIA data shows that in the week ending February 27 in the US, commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.475 million barrels, while crude oil production decreased by 0.6 thousand barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate rose from 88.6% to 89.2%, and crude oil processing volume increased by 180 thousand barrels per day. The rate of inventory accumulation slowed down compared to the previous week. After the refinery utilization rate dropped from its previous high, the pressure on refined product inventories weakened. Weekly gasoline inventories continued to decline, while diesel inventories increased slightly. The total inventories of crude oil and petroleum products continued to rise, but the single - week data has limited implications [4]. Data Summary - **Inventory Changes**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels (previous value: 15.989 million barrels increase), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.564 million barrels (previous value: 0.881 million barrels increase), strategic petroleum inventory had no change, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.704 million barrels (previous value: 1.011 million barrels decrease), diesel inventory increased by 0.429 million barrels (previous value: 0.252 million barrels increase), jet fuel inventory decreased by 0.248 million barrels (previous value: 1.44 million barrels decrease), fuel oil inventory increased by 1.684 million barrels (previous value: 0.107 million barrels decrease), and the inventory of crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 2.935 million barrels (previous value: 11.179 million barrels increase) [4][6]. - **Production and Demand**: US crude oil production was 13.696 million barrels per day (previous value: 13.702 million barrels per day), refined product apparent demand was 19.867 million barrels per day (previous value: 21.455 million barrels per day), gasoline apparent demand was 8.292 million barrels per day (previous value: 8.733 million barrels per day), diesel apparent demand was 3.698 million barrels per day (previous value: 3.895 million barrels per day), crude oil imports were 6.324 million barrels per day (previous value: 6.659 million barrels per day), and crude oil exports were 3.997 million barrels per day (previous value: 4.313 million barrels per day) [6]. - **Refinery Data**: US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.841 million barrels per day (previous value: 15.661 million barrels per day), and the refinery utilization rate was 89.2% (previous value: 88.6%) [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the factors affecting the crude oil market, including geopolitical events, inventory changes, and price trends. It indicates that the situation in the Middle East is tense, with the conflict in the Iran - related war leading to the paralysis of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which has a significant impact on the supply of crude oil. The report suggests that SC2604 will operate in the range of 670 - 690, and investors should wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the long - term [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2604, multiple factors are considered. Geopolitical events (a US submarine attacking an Iranian warship, which has paralyzed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for five days) and Saudi Aramco's export strategy adjustment are positive factors. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is also positive. The inventory data shows an increase in API and EIA inventories in the US, which is negative. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are increasing, both of which are positive. It is expected that if the situation in the Middle East continues, some oil - producing countries may cut production, and SC2604 will operate in the 670 - 690 range, with long - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [3]. 2. Recent News - US President Trump is confident in the US military operation in the Middle East, but the action schedule is unclear. The conflict has put pressure on financial and energy markets. Russian President Putin warns that Russia may stop supplying natural gas to Europe due to the EU's plan to ban the purchase of Russian natural gas, and the conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in oil and gas prices [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sanctions against Russia and the deterioration of the Middle East situation. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The IEA's concern about crude oil surplus and the alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries. The short - term market is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, while in the long - term, there is a risk of oversupply [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil remained unchanged at 81.40, WTI crude oil increased by 0.10 to 74.66, SC crude oil increased by 61.60 to 624.0, and Oman crude oil increased by 1.69 to 82.09. The increase rates were 0.00%, 0.13%, 10.95%, and 2.10% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd decreased by 3.75 to 81.25, WTI increased by 0.10 to 74.66, Oman crude oil increased by 4.14 to 86.51, Shengli crude oil increased by 3.40 to 80.46, and Dubai crude oil increased by 3.73 to 86.42. The change rates were - 4.41%, 0.13%, 5.03%, 4.41%, and 4.51% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory as of February 27 increased by 564.7 barrels to 46789.6 barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 347.5 barrels to 43927.9 barrels [3][10][12]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of February 24, the net long position of the WTI crude oil fund was 172712, an increase of 31369 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of February 24, the net long position of the Brent crude oil fund was 320952, an increase of 57766 [19].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,249.48 points, down 2.0% from the previous day[1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 8,483.95 points, down 1.5%[1] - Total turnover in Hong Kong stocks was HKD 364.3 billion, a decrease of 1.7% from HKD 370.5 billion the previous day[1] Sector Performance - The technology, telecommunications, and materials sectors fell by 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.8% respectively[1] - The composite enterprises, financial, and healthcare sectors declined by 4.0%, 2.9%, and 2.4% respectively[1] - China Hongqiao (1378 HK) and Xinyi Solar (968 HK) led the blue-chip gainers, rising by 6.0% and 4.2% respectively[1] - AIA Group (1299 HK) and WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) were the biggest losers, falling by 4.8% and 4.6% respectively[1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices returned to above USD 5,100[2] - WTI crude oil prices fluctuated around USD 76[2] - TTF natural gas futures fell to EUR 50[2] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for February was 49.0, down from 49.3 in January and below the market forecast of 49.1[3] - Hong Kong's retail sales in January increased by 5.5% year-on-year, lower than December's 6.6% but above the forecast of 4.2%[3] - Japan's consumer confidence index for February was 40.0, up from 37.9 in January and above the forecast of 38.2[3] - The US ISM services PMI for February was 56.1, higher than January's 53.8 and the forecast of 53.5[3] Industry Developments - The automotive sector in Hong Kong saw most stocks decline, except for autonomous driving chip stocks which saw slight increases[4] - NAND flash memory prices are expected to rise by 85%-90% quarter-on-quarter due to supply-demand imbalance[4] - China Biologic Products (1177 HK) announced a global licensing agreement with Sanofi, receiving an upfront payment of USD 135 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.395 billion[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of benchmark crude oils Brent and SC have been strengthening recently. The main contract of SC has risen to around 650 yuan per barrel, and Brent reached around $83 per barrel on Wednesday. The strength of refined oil has exceeded market expectations, with significant increases in the crack spreads of diesel and aviation kerosene. The natural gas price in Europe has continued to be strong due to the shutdown of Qatari gas fields and liquefaction plants [2]. - More refineries announced force majeure or production cuts on Wednesday, which will affect the pattern of the entire chemical and oil product markets in the next few months. Refined oil and chemicals are about to enter the peak spring maintenance period from March to May. Even though the 2026 maintenance is expected to be relatively light, the crack spreads of middle distillates have increased significantly due to factors such as reduced Russian exports. Currently, a forced heavy - maintenance is being implemented in global refineries, leading to a greater reduction in inventories of refined oil and chemicals. Even after the geopolitical conflict ends, the profit levels of refined oil and chemicals will be lifted [2]. - Crude oil leads the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Market News**: The US President Trump said on March 3 that the US Navy would escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, and the US International Development Finance Corporation would provide political risk insurance and guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf region. On March 4, the supply of oil through the "Friendship" oil pipeline to Slovakia remained suspended. The EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels in the week ending February 27, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.704 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 0.429 million barrels, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.2% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The upward trend of oil prices has slowed down, and the spreads of both domestic and foreign markets have continued to rise. The US crude oil has continued its seasonal inventory build - up, but the build - up rate has slowed down compared to last week. After the refinery utilization rate dropped from its high level, the inventory pressure of refined oil has decreased. If the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz continues, it may lead to shipping difficulties and increased production suspension pressure for Middle - Eastern countries, posing an upward risk to oil prices. However, if there are signs of geopolitical easing or expectations of increased traffic volume, oil prices will still be under pressure. Currently, it is still a high - volatility period dominated by geopolitics, and price risks are high. Attention should be paid to the impact of high - volatility freight rates on the price difference between domestic and foreign markets [6]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. Geopolitical tensions have led to a reduction in crude oil supply. After the fermentation of geopolitical premiums, there is significant uncertainty in the later situation, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main asphalt futures closed at 3,660 yuan per ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3,430 yuan per ton, 3,760 yuan per ton, and 3,530 yuan per ton respectively [8]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have followed suit. The by - product nature of asphalt has caused the asphalt crack spread to decline during the sharp rise of crude oil. The market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. As the asphalt - fuel oil spread has dropped sharply, the profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly. Statistics show that the asphalt production in Hainan has increased significantly. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory has started to accumulate in 2026, with the year - on - year growth rate changing from negative in 2025 to positive. Currently, the refinery inventory is low while the social inventory is high, and the refinery operation rate is low while the inventory continues to accumulate, reflecting the reality of tight raw material supply and poor demand. After the increase in the spot price in South China, the export window is expected to close, and the weakening of exports will intensify the domestic oversupply pressure. Against the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the pressure of asphalt inventory build - up is still high. After the sharp rise of fuel oil, the current asphalt futures price is undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar. The asphalt - fuel oil spread compresses when the geopolitical situation heats up and rebounds when the situation eases [8]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,888 yuan per ton [9]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in fuel oil prices due to its high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes. The tense situation in Iran not only affects the export expectations of Iranian fuel oil and Middle - Eastern fuel oil but also the supply expectations of Middle - Eastern natural gas. The energy crisis effect has driven the sharp rise of fuel oil prices, and the sharp rise in freight rates has also contributed to the rebound of fuel oil. Currently, attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran situation. As long as the geopolitical disturbance continues, fuel oil prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Once the US and Iran reach an agreement, it may have a significant negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand for Middle - Eastern fuel oil for power generation is gradually being replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics, which constitutes a medium - to - long - term negative factor for high - sulfur fuel oil. After the replacement of fuel oil for power generation in Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia is expected to increase fuel oil exports. The continuous decline of the asphalt - fuel oil spread shows that the geopolitical escalation has a significant impact on fuel oil prices [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. The long - term growth expectation of Venezuelan oil production exerts pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 4,376 yuan per ton [10]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in natural gas and crude oil prices, and low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the upward trend of crude oil. The market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a strong main - product attribute. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, replacement by green energy, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current valuation is low, and its main - product attribute causes the crack spread to strengthen during the rise of crude oil prices. In terms of fundamentals, the export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. Considering that the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is lower than that of refined oil, its valuation is expected to be difficult to further compress [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the replacement of green fuels and the limited space for high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low, and it fluctuates with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, the spot price of PX in April was negotiated at 1,024 - 1,038 US dollars per ton, and in May at 1,024 - 1,045 US dollars per ton. A spot deal in April was made at 1,030.5 US dollars per ton. The main PX contract closed at 8,088 (+104) yuan per ton, with a basis of 94 (-26) yuan per ton. The MOPJ closed at 721 (+18) US dollars per ton, and the PXN was 282 (-2) US dollars per ton. The PTA2605 closed at 5,694 (+86) yuan per ton, with a processing margin of 499 (+61) yuan per ton. A 770,000 - ton PX plant in South Korea started its scheduled maintenance on March 4 and is expected to restart in late April [11]. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation has brought significant fluctuations to the price of raw material PX. The cost and sentiment have resonated. Some domestic PX plants have reduced production preventively, and the supply - demand expectation of PX is improving, gradually falling from a high - operation state. The implementation of the maintenance of individual plants in South Korea has been confirmed. The restart of multiple PTA plants in the downstream will provide short - term support for PX demand. With the decrease in supply and increase in demand, the short - term fundamentals of PX are slightly strong [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PX price will fluctuate strongly under the resonance of cost support and market sentiment. The logic of going long on dips in the medium - term remains. The 05 - 09 spread of PX is expected to be in a positive spread position on dips, and the PXN is expected to be maintained in the range of [270, 330] US dollars per ton [11]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, the spot price of PTA was 5,605 (+80) yuan per ton, the spot processing margin was 245.6 (+35.5) yuan per ton, and the spot basis was - 46 (+7) yuan per ton. The main PTA contract closed at 5,694 (+86) yuan per ton, and the processing margin on the main contract was 396.4 (+17.9) yuan per ton. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased overall, with an average sales rate of about 40% by 4 pm. The sales rates of several polyester factories were 60%, 100%, 0%, 25%, 75%, 40%, 40%, 0%, 10%, 100%, 0%, 40%, 30%, 30%, 60%, 80%, 50%, 80% respectively. The sales rate of domestic polyester chip sample enterprises was 16.06%, a decrease of 55.24% compared with the previous period [12]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation is still the short - term focus of the market. The shipping in the Strait is blocked, forcing crude oil production cuts in the Middle East. International oil prices have driven the general rise of downstream chemical products. Under cost support, the center of PTA has moved up, but the overall increase is less than that of PX, resulting in a slight pressure on its processing margin. Overall, PTA will still fluctuate strongly following the upstream cost in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the situation of upstream refineries and its own plant changes [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that PTA will maintain a strong - fluctuating trend in the short - term. The 05 - 09 spread of TA is expected to maintain the positive spread logic in the short - term. The support at the lower price of TA has increased, and short - selling is not recommended in the short - term [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Market News**: On March 4, the closing price of the pure benzene 2604 contract was 6,761 yuan per ton, a change of +3.21%. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,640 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 280 yuan per ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea was 878 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 US dollars per ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in the US was 969.73 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 26.94 US dollars per ton. The price of Japanese CFR naphtha was 636.63 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.13 US dollars per ton; the spread between Chinese pure benzene and naphtha was 134 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11 US dollars per ton. The non - integrated profit of downstream styrene was 349 (+77) yuan per ton, the profit of caprolactam containing ammonium sulfate was 749.78 (+29.56) yuan per ton, the profit of phenol was - 50 (+327) yuan per ton, the profit of aniline was 1,687 (-87) yuan per ton, and the profit of adipic acid was - 153 (-76) yuan per ton [13][14]. - **Main Logic**: In the energy sector, the recent geopolitical situation has dominated the price trend of crude oil, and the escalation of the geopolitical conflict has led to the rise of crude oil and then pure benzene. In terms of supply and demand, the supply side is affected by oil price fluctuations, and refineries may have the expectation of defensive production cuts. On the demand side, on the one hand, the news of styrene maintenance and restart is intertwined, and the expectation of the main demand for pure benzene has changed. At present, the maintenance volume in March is greater than the restart volume. On the other hand, among the non - styrene downstream, except for caprolactam, which is still reducing production and has a low load, the other downstream products such as adipic acid, phenol, and aniline have performed well recently, with the operation rate and profit recovering simultaneously, which may reflect the recovery of terminal demand [14]. - **Outlook**: Volatility with an upward bias. The crude oil price fluctuates with an upward bias. Although the inventory pressure is still high, the fundamentals in Q1 have improved compared with Q4 [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Market News**: On March 4, according to Longzhong data, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8,210 (+30) yuan per ton, and the basis of the main contract was 128 (0) yuan per ton. The price of pure benzene in East China was 6,730 (+90) yuan per ton, the price of Sinopec ethylene was 6,500 (+400) yuan per ton, the non - integrated cash - flow production cost of styrene was 7,987 (+165) yuan per ton, and the cash - flow profit was 113 (-165) yuan per ton. The price of PS in East China was 8,400 (+100) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of PS was - 200 (+100) yuan per ton; the price of EPS was 9,150 (+100) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of EPS was 400 (400) yuan per ton; the price of ABS was 10,150 (+200) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of ABS was 291.88 (+117.41) yuan per ton. The main contract EB2604 opened at 8,190 yuan, reached a high of 8,358 yuan, a low of 7,972 yuan, and closed at 8,213 yuan, an increase of 132 yuan compared with the previous trading day [15]. - **Main Logic**: In the energy sector, the escalation of the geopolitical conflict has led to the rise of crude oil and then styrene. In terms of cost, the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is stable, and it is difficult to reduce inventory, so it has no effective driving force for styrene. On the supply side, according to Zhuochuang, the Carville plant in the US has stopped for maintenance, and in March in China, several plants such as Gulei, Hengli, Yanchang Refining and Chemical, and Zibo Junchen have new maintenance plans, and Xuyang plans to restart in late March, so the supply of styrene is expected to decrease. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday ends, the operation rate of downstream industries has gradually recovered, and the overall demand is expected to improve. Recently, the profits of 3S have been repaired, and the downstream transactions have maintained a good rhythm. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of EPS load increase and the resumption of work and production of terminals. Overall, styrene will return to inventory reduction in March, and the near - term fundamentals are acceptable. Attention should be paid to crude oil, plant maintenance and restart progress, and the demand after the festival [15]. - **Outlook**: Volatility with an upward bias. The crude oil price fluctuates with an upward bias. Driven by exports and with many plant maintenance plans, styrene may return to inventory reduction in March [15]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, ethylene glycol

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term geopolitical situation will make oil prices rise strongly. SC is more strongly supported than foreign markets, and its volatility will increase. There is still great uncertainty in the US - Iran situation, and attention should be paid to the later navigation time of the Strait [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI opened at $71.23, closed at $74.80, with a high of $77.98, a low of $70.41, a daily increase of 5.01%, and a trading volume of 98.19 million hands. Brent opened at $79, closed at $81.96, with a high of $85.12, a low of $78.38, a daily increase of 5.43%, and a trading volume of 121.02 million hands. SC opened at 624.7 yuan/barrel, closed at 641.1 yuan/barrel, with a high of 651.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 594.1 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 14%, and a trading volume of 25.49 million hands [5] - **Operation Suggestions**: Due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the US's offer to protect ships passing through the strait, the market is still doubtful about the passage capacity of the strait. Short - term geopolitical factors will support the upward trend of oil prices, and SC will be more strongly supported and more volatile [5] 3.2. Industry News - Goldman Sachs: If the supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts for five weeks, Brent crude oil will rise to $100. - JPMorgan: The crude oil supply from Iraq and Kuwait may decrease by 3.3 million barrels per day within a few days. - Reuters: An oil tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz to the UAE to load oil on Tuesday. - CNN: Only two oil tankers and chemical ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday [9] 3.3. Data Overview - The report includes data on global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Dtd Brent price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption. The data sources are EIA, wind, Bloomberg, etc. [8][14][15][19]

2026.03. 05 本文字数：1946，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 封图 | AI生成 周三，美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）表示，特朗普政府将为途经波斯湾的油轮提供支持，并 在未来几天宣布更多措施，受此影响，油价自美国对伊朗开战以来首次出现企稳回落迹象。 隔夜，WTI原油近月合约涨0.13%，报74.66美元/桶，布伦特原油近月合约平收，报81.40美元/盎 司。 自上周末美以对欧佩克成员国伊朗发动大规模空袭以来，WTI原油价格一度逼近每桶80美元。美国 总统特朗普周二宣布，美国将通过美国国际开发金融公司（DFC）为油轮提供保险，并承诺必要时 为波斯湾的石油运输提供海军护航，油市涨幅有所收窄。对于美国总统而言，如何尽快控制油价，对 于经济、美联储降息前景甚至中期选举都将有关键意义。 霍尔木兹海峡阻塞副作用显现 周三，由全球大宗商品研究联席主管达恩·斯特鲁伊文领衔的高盛分析师表示，如果霍尔木兹海峡石 油运输量再维持当前水平五周，国际基准布伦特原油价格很可能升至每桶100美元。"中断时间越 长，油价上涨的非线性程度可能比我们预估的还要大，因为更长时间的中断会延长生产重启至 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The third oil war has broken out, and the market is concerned about the potential impact on oil supply and prices due to the tense situation in the Middle East [3] - The A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 40 points, and the 5 - minute small - cycle is expected to have a repair requirement tomorrow morning [6] - Gold is in a volatile and slightly bullish trend in the large - scale view [8] - The iron ore market has a supply surplus in the medium - long term, and the terminal demand needs time to start, with an unclear trend and should be viewed as a volatile market [10][11] - The glass market is in a seasonal off - season, with factory inventories accumulating, and the trend is unclear, to be viewed as a wide - range volatile market [14][15] - The methanol market is significantly affected by Iranian sources, as about 60% of China's 1400 - million - ton methanol imports come from Iran, and the influence weight on the domestic market is about 50% [16] - The pulp market has a general trading sentiment, with port inventories accumulating, and the futures market is in a range - bound consolidation state [19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical Impact on Oil Market - The US will provide naval escort and political risk insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz to stabilize energy prices. After the domestic crude oil hit the third daily limit on Tuesday night, the increase narrowed to less than 7% on Wednesday, but it still hit the daily limit again in the afternoon [3] - If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously closed, the potential reduction of crude oil supply from Iraq and Kuwait may reach 3.3 million barrels per day on the eighth day of the Middle East conflict, and may rise to 4.7 million barrels per day on the 18th day if the closure is long - term [3] - If the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, the storage capacity of seven Middle Eastern countries can only maintain production for "no more than 25 days", and then forced production cuts will occur. Banks like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs predict that oil prices will start from $100 [4] - The rise in international oil prices has caused concerns about stagflation in the South Korean market. South Korea imports 70% of its oil from the Middle East, and a 10% increase in oil prices may push up its inflation by 0.6%. The Bank of Korea is expected to remain cautious and not rush to raise interest rates [3] Technical Analysis of Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 40 points. Technically, the 5 - minute small - cycle is expected to have a repair requirement tomorrow morning, and the early - morning rebound is a good opportunity to short [5][6] - **Gold**: Gold opened lower and fluctuated throughout the day, and is still considered to be in a volatile and slightly bullish trend in the large - scale view [8] - **Iron Ore**: The supply from Australia and Brazil is normal, and there is a long - term supply surplus expectation. The terminal demand needs time to start, and the trend is unclear, to be viewed as a volatile market [10][11] - **Glass**: In the seasonal off - season, the daily melting is slightly reduced, and the factory inventories are accumulating. The trend is unclear, and it should be viewed as a wide - range volatile market [14][15] - **Methanol**: China imports about 14 million tons of methanol per year, accounting for just over 10% of the total consumption. About 60% of the imports come from Iran, and the influence weight on the domestic market is about 50%, so any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic market [16] - **Pulp**: The pulp spot market has a general trading sentiment, with port inventories continuing to accumulate. After the holiday, the port inventories need time to be digested. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, and the futures market is in a range - bound consolidation state [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The latest US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in February significantly exceeded expectations, indicating short - term economic resilience in the US, increased market risk appetite, and a weakening US dollar index [14][17][18]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49, showing a weakening economy, and there were issues such as low demand sub - items and the inability of upstream price increases to be effectively transmitted downstream [2][28]. - In the commodity market, prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and policy expectations, with different trends and outlooks [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US ADP employment in February was 63,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000. The US Senate failed to stop the president from using force, and the US Treasury Secretary may raise the universal tariff to 15% this week [10][11][12]. - Gold prices rebounded slightly but failed to recover the previous day's decline. The US economic data was better than expected, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was postponed to the second half of the year. The short - term monetary policy entered a wait - and - see stage, and the gold price lacked continuous upward momentum. The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be weak and volatile, with silver weaker than gold [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in February was 56.1, exceeding the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 53.8. The new order index was 58.6, higher than the previous value of 53.1. The US Treasury Secretary said the universal tariff might be raised to 15% this week, and the White House said the US military had attacked over 2,000 Iranian targets [14][15][16]. - The US economy shows short - term resilience, market risk appetite rises, and the US dollar index weakens. The US dollar is expected to decline in the short term [17][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, a 0.3% month - on - month decrease. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a 0.1% increase, and the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The schedule of the 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress's centralized interview activities was announced [20][21]. - The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower with a gap. The current dominant factor is the risk - aversion sentiment, and the stocks of the "Three Barrels of Oil" fluctuated significantly due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation. Attention should be paid to domestic policy efforts during the Two Sessions, and the national team may take measures to stabilize the market. It is recommended to operate the stock index long - strategy with a low position [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US ISM services PMI in February rose to 56.1, the strongest performance since mid - 2022. New orders grew strongly, the employment market improved, and the overall economic momentum increased significantly. The price pressure in the service industry eased. The White House said sending US ground troops to Iran was not currently in the plan, and a Fed governor said the Middle East situation had not changed the judgment on interest rate cuts [23][24][25]. - US economic data remained resilient, ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the service industry ISM showed an improvement in economic sentiment, boosting market risk appetite. The US stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate due to the high uncertainty of the short - term geopolitical conflict [26][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49, lower than the expected 49.1 and the previous value of 49.3. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 49.8 and the previous value of 49.4. The central bank conducted a 40.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 36.9 billion yuan on the day [28][29]. - The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut has increased, and the short - end varieties performed strongly. Although the weakening of the PMI is affected by seasonal factors, there are also problems such as low demand sub - items and the inability of upstream price increases to be effectively transmitted downstream. The bond market is expected to strengthen slightly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of imported inflation [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 4, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The phenomenon of shipping losses still exists, and traders are cautious in shipping. The demand side has no obvious signal of volume increase, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs, with frequent price - pressing and poor transaction conditions [31]. - Overseas coal prices have risen significantly due to the Middle East conflict, but the domestic market is calm, and the port trading is light. The domestic coal price is expected to be supported, but whether there is more upward elasticity needs to be observed [32]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company, Akora Resources, obtained a new mining license for its iron ore project in Madagascar [33]. - Iron ore prices continue to fluctuate. Under the pressure of terminal finished product inventory and orders, it is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. During the Two Sessions, environmental protection restrictions in some areas will relieve the pressure on finished products to some extent. The terminal is expected to resume production in mid - March, but the overall terminal orders are average. It is expected that the iron ore price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern [33]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Real estate regulations in many places have led to a significant increase in the consultation and visit volume. The steel price continues to fluctuate, with obvious fundamental suppression and strong cost - side support. Without unexpected policies, the steel price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile in the short term [34]. - It is recommended to adopt a volatile thinking and pay attention to potential undervalued opportunities [35]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In February, the actual arrival of imported soybeans in the domestic market was about 4.602 million tons. The international market has not changed much, and the CBOT soybeans are still strong due to the positive US biofuel policy. The domestic soybean meal is strongly volatile under cost support, but the supply and demand situation does not support continuous price increases [36]. - It is recommended to view the soybean meal trend with a volatile thinking and continue to pay attention to China's soybean procurement, Brazil's harvest and shipment, and domestic reserve and customs policies [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is expected to face a longer and more severe drought this year, and the MPOA estimates that the palm oil production in Malaysia in February decreased by 16.24% month - on - month [37]. - The oil market is volatile. The POGO spread has dropped to a two - year low, and the domestic biodiesel demand is expected to be supported. If the drought intensifies in the second half of the year and the production reduction caused by the nationalization of Indonesian plantations is realized, the palm oil price has upward potential. In the short term, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction in February and the supply - demand data in March [38]. - In the short term, attention should be paid to the data in February and the progress of the geopolitical conflict. If the diesel price remains high, the oil market price is expected to rise [39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of February 27, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 743,000 tons, an increase of 124,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons; the imported sorghum was 300,000 tons, an increase of 93,000 tons; and the imported barley was 639,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons [41]. - The corn futures and spot prices are oscillating strongly. The supply of corn is expected to gradually increase, and the low inventory in ports supports the price. The downstream demand is expected to increase, but there are also risks such as the concentrated sale of corn in the Northeast and the potential impact of wheat substitution. In the short term, it is recommended to trade according to the trend and not to chase the high price. In the long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rise [41][42]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The sugar production in Xinjiang in the 2025/2026 season was 796,000 tons, slightly higher than expected. In Guangxi, 3 sugar mills have completed the crushing process, and the progress is still slow. India may face a sugar supply shortage later this year, and the export to the Gulf market may decrease due to the Iran situation [43][44][45]. - The ICE raw sugar futures are fluctuating around 14 cents. The US - Iran conflict may have a limited impact on the sugar market. The domestic sugar market is in the peak production period, and the sales pressure is expected to increase. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be in a low - level oscillation [46][47]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium iron phosphate project with an investment of over 3 billion yuan was put into production. In February, Chile's lithium carbonate exports were 26,849 tons, with 22,380 tons exported to China. There are rumors of mine shutdowns in Yichun, and Zimbabwe has officially approved a ban on the export of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates [48][49][50]. - The lithium carbonate market is a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, the direct demand for lithium carbonate is still supported, but if the power demand recovery is less than expected, there may be order cuts in the mid - stream. It is recommended to consider gradually trying long positions if the price continues to fall [51][52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $19.21 per ton. The zinc price is restricted by both upward and downward factors. The LME inventory decreased by 125 tons to 95,300 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased. The zinc production in March is expected to increase, and the domestic fundamentals are under short - term pressure [53]. - It is recommended to wait and see from a unilateral perspective and adopt a medium - term positive arbitrage strategy from an internal - external perspective [54]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $49.27 per ton. The lead price rebounded from a low level due to the cost support of recycled lead, but it is also affected by the macro - situation. The social inventory of lead is expected to continue to decline in the next two weeks [55][56]. - It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips from a unilateral perspective and wait and see from a monthly spread perspective [56]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vale Base Metals is accelerating its IPO preparation. In February, Chile's copper exports to China decreased. The Middle East situation and the expected policy changes during the Two Sessions will affect the copper price. The domestic and overseas inventory situations also have an impact on the price [57][58]. - It is recommended to buy on dips from a unilateral perspective and wait and see from an arbitrage perspective [59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $130 per ton. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease in the short term but may face constraints in the long term. The domestic smelting profit is gradually recovering, and the downstream demand is gradually picking up [60][61][62]. - In the short term, the tin price is under pressure from the macro - situation and the high inventory. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be in a tight balance, and the price decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream receiving situation and the macro - situation [63]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Saudi Aramco plans to expand exports from Yanbu Port. The oil price increase has slowed down. The market is concerned about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If Saudi Aramco can maintain a high loading volume at Yanbu Port, it will partially solve the problem of stagnant oil exports, but the Houthi rebels' interference still exists [64]. - The short - term oil price will remain highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the situation changes [64]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG) - The current propane inventory is 73.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.8 million barrels from the previous week and 24.7 million barrels from the same period last year. The supply and demand of LPG have changed, and the market is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [65]. - Attention should be paid to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz [65]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has increased. The international oil price has risen due to the geopolitical conflict, driving up the asphalt price. The supply of asphalt is expected to remain low, and the price has an upward risk [66][67]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PX price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors. The PTA basis has strengthened, and the PX structure has also strengthened. The short - term PTA/PX prices are expected to continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the geopolitical situation [68][70][71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 77,900 tons to 1.0981 million tons on March 4, 2026. The international urea price is strong, and the domestic supply is abundant, while the demand is also increasing. The market is optimistic about the spring plowing season, but policy intervention may occur if the price rises too fast [72][73]. - It is recommended to stop profit on long positions and wait for a better entry point [74]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - From February 25 to March 4, the inventory of styrene in the East China main port increased. There are news of upstream device load reduction, and if the war continues until the end of April, the styrene inventory may bottom out. The overall trend is bullish, but attention should be paid to the escalation of the conflict and the spread of credit risks [75][76][77]. 2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - There are no Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, but the war risk level has reached its peak. The freight forwarders face high war surcharges and legal risks. The spot price of the European line has shown signs of differentiation, and the supply pressure will increase in the future. The EC2404 contract has a premium over the spot price, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on high prices [78][79][80].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments released guidelines to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules, aiming for a cumulative utilization of 250,000 tons by 2027 [1] - Key technological breakthroughs are needed in areas such as surface structure disassembly, efficient separation of laminates, and component extraction [1] - By 2030, the goal is to establish a comprehensive utilization capacity for retired photovoltaic modules to handle large-scale retirements [1] Group 2 - International news highlights the escalating conflict in the Middle East, with Israel and the U.S. attacking multiple targets, leading to Iranian retaliatory strikes in the Persian Gulf [5] - The conflict has caused Iraq to cut its oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, with potential for further reductions due to storage space constraints [2] - The domestic manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 49%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [6] Group 3 - The average operating load of domestic coal-to-methanol (CTO) and methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities remains stable at 80.88%, with a slight decrease in overall methanol production load to 78.24% [3] - Coastal methanol inventory has increased to 1.3987 million tons, up 1.07 million tons from February 12, reflecting a 0.77% increase and a 35.14% year-on-year rise [3] - The upcoming National People's Congress will focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with an emphasis on core technology independence [6]