Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward, with the main contract SA2509 closing 3.48% lower than the previous week at 1,305 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe also decreased. Supply is expected to decline, but demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average, and inventory is at a historical high. Overall, the soda ash supply is high and demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - The main contract SA2509 of soda ash futures closed at 1,305 yuan/ton, down 3.48% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,325 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [2]. - Some enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and production profit has rebounded. The expected output next week is 680,000 tons, with an operating rate of about 80%, showing a downward trend in supply [2]. - Downstream demand from float and photovoltaic glass is average, with rigid demand replenishment and low raw material reserve intention. As of May 8, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7013 million tons, up 1.74% from the previous week, remaining at a historical high [2]. Impact Factors Summary - **Likely to be favorable**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [6]. - **Likely to be unfavorable**: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory, although continuously declining, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,352 | 1,320 | - 32 | | Current Value | 1,305 | 1,325 | 20 | | Change Rate | - 3.48% | 0.38% | - 162.50% | [9] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,325 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week [14]. - The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda ash in East China was 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China was - 29.60 yuan/ton, at a low level in the same period [17]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87.74%, showing a stable recovery. The weekly output was 740,700 tons, including 407,900 tons of heavy soda ash, with output falling from a historical high [20][22]. - The production rate of heavy soda ash was 55.07% [24]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity planned in each year. In 2023, the newly added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 600,000 tons actually put into production [25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 96.07% [28]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 155,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.24% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [31]. - The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 91,000 tons, and production stabilized [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7013 million tons, including 872,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at a high level in the same period [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [38].

纯碱行业检修预期再掀市场波澜。纯碱期货价格在创新低下行后近日再度走强，联动现货端氛围好转。 但在笔者看来，本轮检修减量对市场供需的实际冲击较弱，同时期现商本轮采购后提升了现货持货量， 也变相强化了后市的定价话语权，阶段性减量检修仍难改纯碱行业供需错配的格局。 从隆众资讯和卓创资讯发布的碱厂检修计划看，5月检修安排较为密集：江苏实联120万吨产能，预计5 月6日起检修25天；河南金山5月初部分装置轮检，预计10天；江苏井神5月7日起1台锅炉有检修计划； 青海昆仑150万吨产能，计划5月18日起检修5天；山东海化部分装置、江苏华昌70万吨产能5月存检修计 划，具体未定。后续徐州丰成60万吨产能、江苏昆山80万吨产能检修或在6月执行。以目前5月减量计划 看，涉及减量规模或在20余万吨，周度平均影响约6万余吨。近两周产量水平约在75.5万吨附近，按目 前基数减量后，5月周产量均值或略高于3月实际水平。 近期厂家陆续公布未来检修计划，从检修性质看多为年度计划内检修。随着检修计划公布数量逐步增 多，市场开始预期后续检修集中减量可能带来现货压力阶段性缓解，进而带动厂家库存下降。部分碱厂 此前为促进签单有价格调降动作，盘面价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1纯碱市场 - The industry meeting has announced a production - cut and price - support plan. Initial maintenance in early May has been basically implemented, and the scope of maintenance is expected to expand in the middle and late May, leading to a continuous reduction in production. However, the futures market has initially shown a weak feedback, and the positive feedback is not strong. The pressure on soda ash plants has not been significantly relieved. The trend remains bearish, and further changes in maintenance need to be observed [8][9]. - The strategy suggests paying attention to the new order transaction prices, the implementation of maintenance and price - support measures. After taking profits from closing short positions, one can participate again by shorting at high prices when the price goes up [9]. 2.2 Glass market - From a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the improvement of market sentiment. Follow - up should track the changes in production lines, observe the digestion progress of low - price futures and spot sources, and the changes in the spot volume and price sentiment in the main production areas [171]. - The strategy recommends a long - position approach for far - month contracts at low prices [171]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - **Supply**: The total production is 74.07 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.79 million tons. After the holiday, maintenance has gradually started, and production is expected to decline from the high level. The new production capacity of Lianyungang Soda Plant is expected to produce trial products this month [8]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for soda ash is 71.16 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.58 million tons. The terminal has replenished inventory at low prices, and manufacturers still have some forward - delivery orders [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash plants is 170.13 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.91 million tons. The social inventory is 37.00 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.00 million tons. Under the expectation of production cuts, the plant inventory is expected to decrease in the short term, while the middle - stream inventory may stop falling and rise [8]. - **Valuation**: The cost and profit of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process are relatively stable. The basis of the market price in Shahe is 28 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: The monthly production data of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 shows certain seasonal fluctuations [15]. - **Import and Export**: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 million tons; the export volume is 19.43 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 million tons. The import dependence is 0.11 [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Futures and Spot Price Comparison**: Charts show the price trends of glass futures, Shahe heavy - soda ash market price, soda ash futures, and Shahe 5mm glass plate price from 2020 to 2025 [24][25][26][27]. - **Soda Ash Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2022 to 2026 [29][30][31]. - **Soda Ash Contract Inter - period Spread**: Charts show the spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [33][34][35]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts and the spot spread from 2021 to 2025 [37][39][40]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe Region**: The current market price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe is 1330 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 920 yuan/ton [45]. - **Regional Price of Heavy and Light Soda Ash**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions have different degrees of changes. For example, the price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe has decreased, while the prices in some other regions remain stable [49]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - up and Shutdown**: Some soda ash plants are currently under maintenance or operating at reduced loads, and many plants have planned maintenance in May and June [87]. - **Start - up Rate**: The current domestic start - up rate of soda ash is 87.74%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process are relatively stable, and the prices of related raw materials such as synthetic ammonia also show certain trends [98][111]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Demand for Heavy - Soda Ash**: The demand for heavy - soda ash is mainly affected by the production of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The current daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has decreased slightly [134][135][137]. - **Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly apparent consumption and production - sales ratio of soda ash show certain fluctuations [140]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: The market average prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass have certain trends from 2021 to 2025 [144][145]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The current inventory of soda ash enterprises is 170.13 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.91 million tons [149]. - **Regional Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash in different regions shows different trends [156][157][158]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 155,825 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1400 tons. The weekly production is 109.08 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.98 million tons [169]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 95.73 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 16.75 million tons. Market demand sentiment is weak, and the apparent demand has declined [169]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 337.80 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 12.86 million tons. Weak demand has led to a short - term increase in factory inventory [169]. - **Valuation**: The costs and profits of different production lines of glass are relatively stable. The spread between East China and Central China is 200 yuan, and the basis of the 5mm glass plate in Shahe is 162 yuan [169]. 3.9 Monthly Supply and Demand of Glass - **Production**: The monthly production data of flat glass from 2020 to 2025 shows certain seasonal fluctuations [176]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volumes of float glass also show certain trends [178][181]. 3.10 Basis and Spread of Glass - **Futures and Spot Price Comparison**: Charts show the price trends of Shahe 5mm glass plate, glass futures, Shahe heavy - soda ash market price, and soda ash futures from 2020 to 2025 [185][187][188][189]. - **Glass Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis trends of the 01, 09, and 05 contracts of Shahe 5mm glass plate from 2021 to 2026 [191][192][194]. - **Glass Contract Inter - period Spread**: Charts show the spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 contracts from 2009 to 2026 [196][197][198]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts and the spot spread from 2021 to 2025 [201][202][203]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - **Regional Price of 5mm Float Glass**: The prices of 5mm float glass in different regions have different degrees of changes. For example, the prices in Shahe have decreased, while the prices in some other regions remain stable [207]. - **Price of 5mm Glass Plate**: The prices of 5mm glass plates in different regions and different manufacturers also show certain trends [219][221][223].

Group 1 - The main contract for soda ash futures closed at 1305 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.76% [1] - Soda ash inventory reached 1.7013 million tons, an increase of 29,100 tons or 1.74% week-on-week [2] - Production costs for ammonia-soda method in North China decreased to 1300 CNY/ton, down 420 CNY/ton or 24.4% from last October's peak [2] Group 2 - Some soda ash production facilities are operating at reduced capacity, with Tangshan Sanyou and Shandong Haitan both running at about 70% [2] - Short-term supply tightness may arise due to maintenance plans, but long-term oversupply remains a concern [3] - The price of soda ash futures may experience a brief rebound in May, but sustained upward momentum is lacking due to weak demand and high inventory levels [3]

Group 1 - The overall domestic soda ash market remains stable, with slight declines in some regions. Prices for light soda ash in East China are between 1340-1530 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices range from 1420-1500 CNY/ton [2] - Supply side shows an increasing number of manufacturers undergoing maintenance and production cuts, leading to a decrease in industry operating rates, with expectations of further supply contraction in the future [2][5] - Demand is weak as downstream companies are not performing well, leading to low purchasing enthusiasm. Most companies prioritize digesting existing inventory, resulting in market transactions primarily consisting of small orders and low-price deals [2][5] Group 2 - On May 9, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1318 CNY/ton and closed at 1305 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.38%. The highest price during the day was 1329 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1300 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,221,435 contracts, an increase of 17,878 contracts [3] - The decline in soda ash futures prices is primarily driven by overall market sentiment and significant drops in downstream products. The fundamental situation for soda ash has not shown notable improvement, and while some supply-side maintenance has begun, it is insufficient to reverse the oversupply situation [3][5] Group 3 - The supply contraction trend is becoming more evident, and although demand is generally weak, some essential purchases are starting to emerge as inventory is gradually digested, providing some support to the market [5] - It is expected that short-term market prices will remain stable, with the possibility of slight increases in regions with relatively tight supply-demand structures. Future attention should be paid to the execution of new maintenance plans and changes in actual downstream purchasing rhythms [5]

Core Insights - Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical announced a reduction maintenance for its soda ash facility starting April 29, expected to last about half a month, which will significantly impact the supply-demand dynamics in the soda ash industry [1] - The soda ash market is experiencing rising demand due to economic recovery, but companies are facing challenges from increasing raw material costs and stricter environmental regulations [1][2] - Other soda ash producers are also adjusting their operations, with several facilities running at reduced capacity, indicating a potential tightening of supply and possible price increases [2][3] Industry Dynamics - The soda ash market is currently seeing price fluctuations, with light soda ash prices ranging from 1050 to 1670 RMB/ton and heavy soda ash prices from 1050 to 1700 RMB/ton [6] - Recent maintenance activities and pre-holiday stockpiling have led to a temporary price increase, but the market is now stabilizing with reduced trading activity [6][7] - The overall operating rate in the soda ash industry is approximately 89.50%, showing a slight decrease from the previous week [15] Supply Chain Adjustments - Various soda ash facilities are undergoing maintenance or operating at reduced capacity, including Shandong Haihua and Shaanxi Xinghua, which are both running at lower loads [2][14] - The total inventory of soda ash in the domestic market has increased to 1.7 million tons, up from 1.67 million tons the previous week [17] - The production profit for the soda ash industry has seen a slight increase, with the profit from the soda ash production process using the ammonia-soda method rising to 50 RMB/ton [10][11] Price Trends - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow range of price adjustments in the short term due to a tightening supply situation, while demand remains relatively stable [7] - The price comparison across different regions shows variations, with some areas experiencing price increases while others see declines [9][20] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of limited upward price movement due to stable demand [7][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market currently has strong real - world fundamentals and rising macro - optimistic expectations, which support the lower limit of finished products. However, the weak demand expectation and the tendency of new orders to decline limit the upward space of the futures market. Without unexpected positive news, the futures market may fluctuate in the near term [3]. - The iron ore market is trading on the expectation of future demand rather than the current situation of strong supply and demand. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the weakening of exports may intensify industrial chain contradictions [17]. - The coal - coke market is in a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. In the long - term, due to coal supply guarantee and crude steel reduction expectations, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. Although the pressure of high supply of silicon manganese has been alleviated, supply still exceeds demand compared with weak downstream demand. The production of silicon iron has increased slightly this week, and the large increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the rise of the futures price [54]. - The soda ash market is expected to have more maintenance in May, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3126, 3048, and 3098 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3239, 3200, and 3217 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were between 3180 - 3344 yuan/ton on May 7, 2025 [9]. Market Analysis - From a macro - industrial perspective, Sino - US trade negotiations seem to have new progress, and the macro - optimistic expectation has risen. The real - world fundamentals are strong, but the future demand expectation is weak, and the market may face pressure from weakening demand and falling raw material costs [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 681, 768, and 708 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao, such as PB powder, were also provided [18]. Market Analysis - The current supply and demand of iron ore are both strong, but the market is trading on future expectations. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the negative feedback pressure on steel mills to reduce production is increasing [17]. Coal - Coke Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs and basis in different regions and contracts were provided, as well as the coking profit on the futures market [35]. Market Analysis - In the short - term, the supply and demand of coal - coke are both strong. In the long - term, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. Ferroalloy Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the silicon iron and silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided, as well as the prices of related raw materials and the number of warehouse receipts [55][56]. Market Analysis - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. The supply of silicon manganese still exceeds demand, and the increase in silicon iron production and warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [54]. Soda Ash Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the soda ash futures prices, spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided [71][72]. Market Analysis - In May, there are expected to be more maintenance activities, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. Glass Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the glass futures prices, spreads, and basis in different regions were provided, as well as the daily sales data in different regions [98][99]. Market Analysis - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] 2. Core Views - The market contradictions are insufficient, and the ore price is weakly oscillating. The spot trading of glass and soda ash is weak and stable, with their futures opening high and closing low. The cost center of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has shifted downwards, and their prices have reached new lows [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures oscillated weakly after opening higher. The overall spot market trading was weak and stable, showing improvement compared to the holiday [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There were both ignition and water - release production lines recently. With ignition production lines not yet delivering goods, the supply pressure may be slightly relieved, and glass inventory decreased slightly. However, due to insufficient recovery of real - estate and deep - processing demand, the restocking intensity and sustainability were weak, and prices lacked upward momentum. In the later high - temperature and rainy season, it is not conducive to glass storage, so enterprises' intention to reduce inventory through sales may be stronger [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures oscillated weakly after opening higher. The market demand was average, mainly for rigid - need procurement. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in North China and Central China decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, the soda ash production has been steadily increasing, maintaining a loose state. Demand is relatively stable, with restocking at low prices. The growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, and the room for increasing soda ash demand is limited. The pressure to reduce inventory is still large. It is expected that soda ash plants will intermittently reduce production for maintenance to relieve the inventory accumulation pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: As market sentiment further weakened, the silicomanganese futures oscillated downward, and the price reached a new low recently. The spot market of silicomanganese was running weakly. Factories basically stopped quoting prices and adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was also 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continued to decline. The molten iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for silicomanganese was resilient. Since the silicomanganese production capacity was sufficient, once the profit improved, the production could increase rapidly. Considering that the port inventory of manganese ore was in the stage of rising from a low level, it still provided some support for alloy costs. The near - month contract was continuously suppressed by warehouse receipts [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: The ferrosilicon futures led the decline in the black - goods sector, showing overall weakness, and the price reached a new low recently. The spot market of ferrosilicon was running weakly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 6050 - 6100 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Although the demand remained strong, the ferrosilicon production still declined under the condition of losses. The manufacturers' inventory decreased from a high level, and the downstream enterprises' inventory remained at a low level. Due to the relatively loose ferrosilicon production capacity, the price would still be suppressed by high inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of industrial policies on the black - goods sector in the future [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the industry conference promotes production - cut and price - support plans. Although short - term factory inventory is expected to decrease and the mid - stream may stop reducing inventory, continuous price increases are difficult. The long - term bearish trend remains, but caution is needed before the positive feedback atmosphere ends. Traders are advised to pay attention to new order transaction prices and the implementation of maintenance and price - support plans, and short - term short - covering and then short - selling at high prices are recommended after the upward sentiment calms down [8][9]. - For the glass market, from a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the market sentiment to improve. A long - position strategy for far - month contracts is recommended, and subsequent attention should be paid to production line changes, the digestion progress of low - price spot and futures sources, and the price - volume sentiment changes of spot in major production areas [173]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - **Supply**: The total weekly production is 75.51 million tons, with heavy - soda production at 41.55 million tons and light - soda production at 33.96 million tons. The import volume is 0.07 million tons, and the export volume is 4.2 million tons. There are production - cut and maintenance plans in the industry, and potential incremental production awaits the full - capacity operation of Jiangsu Debang and the subsequent commissioning of Lianyungang Alkali Plant [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - soda consumption is 34.27 million tons, and the light - soda apparent demand is 30.87 million tons. The apparent demand for soda ash is 77.54 million tons. The market's expectation for terminal demand is weak, but the short - term apparent demand may be boosted by the positive feedback between futures and spot [8]. - **Inventory**: The alkali factory inventory is 169.1 million tons, and the social inventory is 33.85 million tons. With the positive feedback and subsequent production - cut expectations, short - term factory inventory is expected to decrease, while mid - stream inventory may stop falling and start to rise [8]. - **Valuation**: The ammonia - soda process cost is 1327 yuan, and the profit is 83 yuan. The combined - soda process cost is 1170 yuan, and the profit is 140 yuan. The price difference between heavy and light soda in Central China is 40 yuan, and the basis of the market price in Shahe is 20 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: The report provides monthly production data of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 [15]. - **Imports and Exports**: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, and the export volume is 19.43 million tons. Compared with the previous month, imports decreased by 0.23 million tons, and exports increased by 0.02 million tons. Compared with the same period last year, imports decreased by 21.23 million tons, and exports increased by 9.45 million tons [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Spot - Futures Price Comparison**: It shows the price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 [24][25][26][27]. - **Soda Ash Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [29][31][32]. - **Soda Ash Contract Inter - period Spread**: Displays the spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [34][35][36]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Shows the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2021 to 2026 [38][39][40][42]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe Region**: The current market price of heavy - soda in Shahe is 1312 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan compared with last week and 938 yuan compared with last year [47]. - **Light and Heavy Soda Regional Prices**: The prices of heavy and light soda in different regions such as North China, East China, and Central China are provided, with most prices remaining stable [51]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - up and Shutdown**: Some enterprises are currently under maintenance or reducing load, and some have planned maintenance in May [88]. - **Start - up Rate**: The current domestic soda ash start - up rate is 89.44%, with a weekly production of 75.51 million tons, heavy - soda production of 41.55 million tons, and light - soda production of 33.96 million tons [89]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit trends of ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the price trends of related products such as synthetic ammonia, limestone, and caustic soda [100][102][104][106][112][122][126]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Heavy - Soda Demand**: It shows the daily melting volume of photovoltaic and float glass, the daily consumption of heavy - soda, and the weekly demand from 2020 to 2025 [137][139][140][141]. - **Weekly Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio**: Presents the weekly consumption and production - sales ratio of light and heavy soda from 2020 to 2025 [143]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: Displays the market average prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass from 2021 to 2025 [146][147]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The current soda ash enterprise inventory is 169.1 million tons, with light - soda enterprise inventory at 85.05 million tons and heavy - soda enterprise inventory at 84.05 million tons [151]. - **Regional Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of soda ash in different regions such as North China, Central China, and East China from 2020 to 2025 [159][160][162]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 157,175 tons, and the weekly production is 110.02 million tons. There are cold - repair and production - start plans for some production lines [171]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 108.47 million tons. Market sentiment suppresses the apparent demand, but the mid - and downstream purchase appropriately at low prices [171]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 327.37 million tons, and short - term inventory is expected to increase slightly due to demand suppression [171]. - **Valuation**: The cost and profit of natural - gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke production lines are provided. Low - cost production capacity still has profits, but most production capacity is in the red [171]. 3.9 Glass Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: Displays the monthly production data of flat glass from 2020 to 2025 [178]. - **Imports and Exports**: Presents the monthly import and export data of float glass from 2020 to 2025 [179][183]. 3.10 Glass Basis and Spread - **Spot - Futures Price Comparison**: Shows the price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 [187][188][189][190]. - **Glass Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [192][193][194]. - **Glass Contract Inter - period Spread**: Displays the spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 contracts from 2009 to 2026 [196][197][198]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Shows the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2021 to 2026 [201][202][203][205]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - **Float Glass 5mm Regional Price**: Provides the price information of 5mm float glass in different regions such as Shahe, North China, and East China, with some prices showing slight fluctuations [210]. - **Float Glass 5mm Large - Plate Price**: Displays the price trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan 5mm glass large - plate tax - included price, and South China 5mm glass large - plate tax - included price from 2020 to 2025 [225]. 3.12 Glass Supply No relevant content provided for the supply part after "05 Glass Supply".

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant price increases in active dyes (+10%) and PTA (+3.17%), suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies related to these products [4][20]. - It recommends focusing on companies like Huaitong Co., which is expected to benefit from the application of modified plastics in the robotics sector, and Runtong Co., which may gain from the rising prices of active dyes [5]. Industry Performance - In the first week of May, the chemical sector (Shenwan) experienced a decline of 0.50%, slightly underperforming the Shanghai A-share index, which fell by 0.49% [2][12]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector stands at 24.05, which is lower than the average PE of 11.90 since 2015 [2][12]. Sub-industry Trends - Among the 15 sub-industries, five saw increases, with daily chemical products leading at +8.85%, while five sub-industries experienced declines, with synthetic leather dropping by -8.89% [3][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: active dyes (+10%), PTA (+3.17%), and butadiene (+2.86%) [4][20]. - The report also notes significant changes in price spreads, with the melamine spread increasing by +73.47% and the PTA spread by +39.52% [4][36]. Inventory Changes - Key products with notable inventory changes include potassium chloride (-17.88%) and epoxy propane (-8.96%), indicating shifts in supply dynamics [5][56].