Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on soda ash futures dated June 10, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemicals Research Report series [2] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market - The prices of heavy soda ash in Huazhong, East China, and North China remained unchanged on June 10, 2025, compared to the previous day, while the price in Shahe increased by 2 yuan/ton to 1244 yuan/ton, and the price in the Northwest decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [3] - The prices of light soda ash in Huazhong and North China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, and the price in the Northwest decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [3] - The average price difference between heavy and light soda ash increased by 4 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [3] Futures Market - Among the SA09, SA01, and SA05 contracts, the SA09 contract price increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1208 yuan/ton, the SA01 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1191 yuan/ton, and the SA05 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1233 yuan/ton [3] - The position of the main contract decreased by 64,797 lots to 1,448,568 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 364,582 lots to 1,382,031 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 149 to 5,495 [3] Basis and Spread - Among the SA09, SA01, and SA05 contracts, the basis of the SA09 contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, the basis of the SA01 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton, and the basis of the SA05 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 11 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of SA01 - 05 remained unchanged at -42 yuan/ton, the spread of SA05 - 09 decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton, and the spread of SA09 - 01 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Data - The weekly production of soda ash was 704,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.77% and a year - on - year increase of 2.91% [3] - The operating rate of soda ash was 80.76%, a week - on - week increase of 2.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61% [3] - The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.627 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year increase of 98.85% [3] - The apparent demand for soda ash was 701,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.01% [3] - The profit of the combined soda process was 178 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 80.59% [3] - The profit of the ammonia - soda process was 49.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.62% [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Conditions - According to Longzhong Information, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 2 yuan/ton to 1244 yuan/ton, the price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton, the price of light soda ash in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash was 49 yuan/ton [5] Important Information - As of June 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6783 million tons, an increase of 51,300 tons or 3.15% from the previous Thursday [6] - The domestic soda ash market was weakly sorted, and the trading center moved down. The soda ash plant had small fluctuations, with Jiangsu Huachang starting operation and the output gradually increasing. The downstream demand was average, the profit level of some industries was average, and their own inventory was at a high level. The procurement sentiment for soda ash was cautious, and the purchase was mainly based on low - price and on - demand [6] Logic Analysis - Today, macro - level disturbances were greater than industry - level factors, and the market was concerned about the results of further Sino - US negotiations [7] - On the supply side, the old line of Haihua will start operation tomorrow, Shaanxi Xinghua may have maintenance at the end of the month, and Jiangsu Kunshan is expected to have maintenance on the 19th. The daily output of soda ash remains unchanged at 107,000 tons [7] - On the demand side, short - term demand was stable, but there were medium - term concerns. The output of float glass and photovoltaic glass still had room to decline, especially the concern about the cold repair of float glass affected the demand for soda ash [7] - On the cost side, the market began to think that the room for further decline in the raw material side was limited. Ammonium chloride may weaken seasonally, but the losses of ammonia - soda and combined soda processes were not deep enough to stimulate market clearance, and maintenance was only temporary [7] - In terms of time, the rainy season and off - season were approaching, and it was difficult for demand to increase. The natural market clearance of supply depends on profit and cycle [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Macro factors were dominant, the game between long and short positions intensified. From a fundamental perspective, the price still had room to decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [9]

今 日 早 评 温馨提示： 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定，现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下： AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种： 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现，5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日，达到2675万桶/日，但低于计划的增产幅度，在 OPEC+协议中，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日，但实际仅增 产18万桶/日；伊朗外交部发言人：下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外；中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评：美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况，OPEC+增产量偏少，美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices decreasing by 10 to 60 yuan per ton across various regions, driven by weak demand and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [2][5]. Price Analysis - As of June 9, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1290-1420 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1350-1470 yuan/ton. In East China, light soda ash prices are 1260-1520 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash is 1340-1420 yuan/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on June 9 is 1272.86, down by 5.71, a decrease of 0.45%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1321.43, down by 8.57, a decrease of 0.64% [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market shows a weak trend, with the main contract SA2509 opening at 1207 yuan/ton and closing at 1202 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 0.91%. The total open interest is 1,513,365 contracts, an increase of 117,554 contracts [5]. - The market is under pressure due to a combination of increased supply from resumed production and new capacity, alongside weak demand from the glass industry, leading to slow inventory turnover [5][6]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a slight recovery in supply as some production facilities resume operations. However, demand remains limited, and companies may resort to price reductions to alleviate inventory pressure [6]. - Overall, without significant positive developments, soda ash prices are likely to continue a weak and volatile trend, with attention needed on production resumption, downstream inventory replenishment, and market sentiment [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Natural Rubber**: Short - term macro warming drives rubber price rebound, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 14,000. Attention should be paid to the raw material volume in each production area and macro events [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to pick up, but the supply increase is larger. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. However, the rebound of coal prices provides some support, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [3]. - **Polysilicon**: In June, there is no obvious improvement in fundamentals. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, and the cost support may decline. It is recommended to close long positions and even try shorting on high prices [5]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, in the long - term, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory after maintenance. It is advisable to consider 7 - 9 calendar spreads and short on rebounds in the far - month contracts. For glass, it still faces over - supply pressure after the short - term market sentiment boost. The price may be strong in the short - term but will be under pressure later [6]. 3. Summary by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 1.48% from June 5. The full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was 100 yuan/ton, up 1900% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 890 yuan/ton on June 6, down 10 yuan or 1.14% from June 5 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production was 105,700 dry tons, down 29.16% from the previous period; Indonesia's production was 194,100 dry tons, down 7.26%. The weekly start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory was 614,584 tons on June 6, up 0.06% from the previous day. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 21,873 tons, up 23.99% [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 5. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) was 1,015 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2506 - 2507 spread was 0 yuan/ton on June 6, up 100% from June 5 [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 12.10% from the previous month. The production of organic silicon DMC was 184,000 tons, up 6.48% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang inventory was 190,800 tons on June 6, up 0.37% from the previous day. The social inventory was 587,000 tons, down 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 5. The N - type material basis (average price) was 1,760 yuan/ton, down 10.20% [5]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The bs2506 contract price was 34,740 yuan/ton on June 6, up 0.58% from June 5. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,260 yuan/ton, up 43.49% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the polysilicon production was 96,100 tons, up 0.73% from the previous month. The weekly silicon wafer production was 130,400 GM, down 2.69% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 269,000 tons on June 6, down 0.37% from the previous day. The silicon wafer inventory was 20,020 GM, up 7.81% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On June 6, the North China glass quotation was 1,160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The glass 2509 contract price was 997 yuan/ton, up 3.53% [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On June 6, the North China soda ash quotation was 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soda ash 2509 contract price was 1,212 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [6]. - **Supply**: In late May, the soda ash operation rate was 78.57%, down 0.08% from the previous period. The weekly soda ash production was 685,000 tons, up 1.08% [6]. - **Inventory**: In late May, the glass inventory was 67,762,000 square meters, down 0.01% from the previous period. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.6243 million tons, up 1.37% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area in real estate was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points from the previous period; the completion area growth rate was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly oscillate at a low level. The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1212 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1252 yuan/ton, and the main basis was 40 yuan, with a basis increase of 48.15% compared to the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1252 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash was at a low level in the same period in history. The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda in East China was 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda in North China was - 10.10 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.76%, and the expected operating rate would stabilize and rebound. The weekly output of soda ash was 70.41 tons, with 38.22 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output had declined from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 107.66% [24]. - In terms of downstream demand, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.68 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline to 75.53%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production had rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production had stabilized [27][30]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 162.70 tons, including 83.70 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory was at a historical high in the same period [33]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4].

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures fluctuate and decline. In June, supply and demand are expected to remain weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type reclaimed feedstock, P - type cauliflower feedstock, N - type granular silicon, etc., remained unchanged on June 5 compared to June 4. The basis of N - type feedstock and cauliflower feedstock increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 dropped by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 - PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production increased by 0.73% to 9.61 million tons. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained unchanged. Silicon wafer production in May decreased by 0.50% to 58.06 GM. In April, silicon wafer imports decreased by 32.03%, exports increased by 28.29%, and net exports increased by 42.57% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints Industrial silicon futures opened low, fluctuated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand is expected to recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high increase in supply. Supply is expected to grow significantly, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various types of industrial silicon decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 - 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 - 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, with significant decreases in Xinjiang and increases in Yunnan and Sichuan. The organic silicon DMC production increased by 6.48%, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.73%. The national industrial silicon start - up rate decreased by 11.37% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.37%, Yunnan's increased by 1.62%, and Sichuan's increased by 0.88%. Social inventory decreased by 0.34%, order inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the futures rebounded at night, but the fundamentals remained unchanged. The market sentiment was weak, and there was still pressure to accumulate inventory in the long - term. It is recommended to consider the 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term high - selling operations for the far - month contracts [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the futures rebounded at night. The spot market was weak, and there was pressure to accumulate inventory after June. It is expected that the price will continue to be under pressure and operate weakly in the short - term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged, while the price in South China decreased by 0.76%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply Volume**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased by 0.08%, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.01%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints In the short - term, the macro - economic recovery drives the rubber price to rebound. However, with the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 14000. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber increased by 1.12%, and the basis increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and domestic tire production and exports decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Data Glass - **Spot Prices**: As of June 5, 2025, the prices of 5mm large - plate glass in different regions showed various trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass at Shahe Anquan decreased from 1134.0 on May 29 to 1121.0, with a weekly change of - 13.0; Wuhan Changli's price dropped from 1140.0 to 1080.0, a weekly change of - 60.0 [2]. - **Futures Contracts**: The FG09 contract price decreased from 985.0 on May 29 to 963.0 on June 5, a weekly change of - 22.0; the FG01 contract price dropped from 1049.0 to 1018.0, a weekly change of - 31.0 [2]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The FG 9 - 1 spread was - 55.0 on June 5, with a weekly change of 9.0; the 09 Hebei basis was 78.0, with a weekly change of - 50.0 [2]. - **Profits**: The North China coal - fired profit decreased from 236.5 to 219.9, a weekly change of - 16.6; the 09FG盘面 natural gas profit decreased from - 372.9 to - 394.9, a weekly change of - 22.0 [2]. - **Sales and Production Ratios**: The sales - to - production ratios were 101 in Shahe, 116 in Hubei, 90 in East China, and 105 in South China [2]. Soda Ash - **Spot Prices**: On June 5, 2025, the price of Shahe heavy - soda ash was 1250.0, with a daily change of - 10.0; Qinghai heavy - soda ash was 1030.0, with a weekly change of - 20.0 [2]. - **Futures Contracts**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1253.0 on May 29 to 1236.0 on June 5, a weekly change of - 17.0; the SA09 contract price was 1203.0, with no weekly change [2]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The SA09 - 01 spread was 7.0 on June 5, with a weekly change of 5.0; the SA09 Shahe basis was 47.0, with a weekly change of 0.0 [2]. - **Profits**: The North China ammonia - soda process profit decreased from - 101.3 to - 106.3, a weekly change of 1.3; the North China combined - soda process profit decreased from 14.4 to - 10.1, a weekly change of - 22.1 [2]. - **Inventory**: The delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 12,400 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged [2].

Group 1 - The soda ash market experienced a downward trend in May, with prices hitting a new low by the end of the month, failing to meet expectations of price recovery due to maintenance plans [1] - The maintenance plans did not execute as anticipated, with some companies shortening or delaying their maintenance schedules, leading to insufficient overall maintenance efforts [1] - The production low phase is expected to last from late May to early June, with overlapping maintenance plans from major manufacturers contributing to market pressure relief [1] Group 2 - Leading manufacturers, benefiting from previous price advantages, hold a significant number of pending orders from futures traders, which helped alleviate overall inventory pressure during the market downturn [2] - Companies with less competitive pricing and cost structures are facing higher inventory pressures and are at a disadvantage in market competition [2] - The current market outlook indicates a supply surplus as the core factor suppressing prices, with future improvements reliant on supply-side production cuts [2]

Report on Polysilicon 1. Core View - Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures are oscillating and falling. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re - feeding material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon average prices remained unchanged on June 5th compared to June 4th. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 decreased by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained stable [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Core View - Industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand may recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. Supply is expected to grow, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various varieties decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 and 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 and 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 6.48%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 0.73% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory - warehouse inventories increased slightly, while social inventory decreased by 0.34%. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the soda ash futures rebounded at night. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. Consider a 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term short - selling on the far - month contract [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the glass futures rebounded at night. The spot market is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation after June. The industry needs capacity clearance, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, and Central China glass quotes remained unchanged, while South China quotes decreased by 0.76%. Glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased slightly, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - economic recovery drives rubber prices to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Consider short - selling when the price exceeds 14000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to raw material supply in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [5]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 1.12%. The basis of whole latex increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production decreased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. Domestic tire production, tire exports, natural rubber imports, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, although the overall profit on the supply - side has declined, natural soda ash projects maintain high profits. Traditional backward - capacity maintenance has intensified, and the expansion of natural soda ash project capacity has led to an increase in production and capacity utilization, resulting in significant supply pressure. On the demand side, while futures and spot traders are active and restocking is sufficient, the decline in soda ash spot prices is expected to lead to a slowdown in demand and a decrease in the de - stocking speed. The main downstream industries of soda ash, such as float glass and photovoltaic glass, are not optimistic. Therefore, it is recommended to go short on the soda ash main contract after a rebound [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, the resumption of production lines in some areas has increased the weekly output, but the overall industry profit is poor, and the willingness of enterprises to support prices is limited, so the subsequent resumption of production may decline. On the demand side, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and demand will weaken further in the traditional off - season. Downstream deep - processing orders are unstable, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs. The increase in the inventory of automobile glass factories cannot offset the weak demand related to real estate, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure. It is expected that there is still upward momentum in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a short - term rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 240 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 22 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 963 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 1203 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 contract spread of soda ash is 7 yuan, with a decrease of 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 contract spread of glass is - 55 yuan, with a decrease of 3 yuan. The basis of soda ash is 5 yuan, with a decrease of 45 yuan; the basis of glass is 68 yuan, with a decrease of 46 yuan [2]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipt**: The position of the soda ash main contract is 1443208 lots, with a decrease of 65754 lots; the position of the glass main contract is 1552205 lots, with an increase of 107933 lots. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 227449 lots, with a decrease of 52982 lots; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 220121 lots, with a decrease of 45869 lots. The soda ash exchange warehouse receipt is 3340 tons, with an increase of 1278 tons; the glass exchange warehouse receipt is 0 tons, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - **Soda Ash**: The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1230 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of East China light soda ash is 1340 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1285 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - **Glass**: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1056 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1070 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of soda ash plants is 78.57%, with a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.68%, with an increase of 0.34 percentage points [2]. - **Production Capacity and Inventory**: The in - production capacity of glass is 15.63 million tons/year, with no change; the number of in - production glass production lines is 225, with an increase of 2. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 162.43 million tons, with an increase of 2.2 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 6766.2 million heavy - boxes, with a decrease of 10.7 million heavy - boxes [2]. 下游情况 - **Real - Estate**: The cumulative new construction area of real estate is 17835.84 million square meters, with an increase of 4839.38 million square meters; the cumulative completed area of real estate is 15647.85 million square meters, with an increase of 2587.58 million square meters [2]. 行业消息 - Multiple industry news is reported, including the organization of the first - batch pilot work of new - type power system construction by the National Energy Administration, the research and deployment of promoting the development of the artificial - intelligence industry by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the preliminary estimate of 124 million new - energy passenger - vehicle wholesale sales in May by the Passenger Car Association with a year - on - year increase of 38%, etc. [2] 宏观情况 - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May is 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, and it has fallen below the critical point for the first time since last October [2].