英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 31 日 4000 点或仍有拉锯，逢调整布局更稳妥 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二，沪指盘中一度突破 4000 点，但随后得而复失；周三，沪指重返 4000 点，时隔十年，收盘终于收复；周四，沪指 4000 点上方运行，但盘中两波调整， 最终还是失守……很显然，4000 点反复拉锯，多空分歧较大，这究竟该如何理解 和应对？ 4000 点争夺拉锯，本质是获利盘了结与增量资金入场意愿不足的博弈。另外， 与过去齐涨共跌的行情不同，当前指数上涨由少数权重大的科技龙头驱动时，大 部分中小盘股票难跟节奏，可能放大了散户与指数的收益差距。在指数攀升的背 后，部分投资者的盈利体感并没同步，面临只赚指数不赚钱的尴尬。 展望后市，当前政策托底信号明确，流动性维持合理充裕，市场整体下行空 间已被显著压缩，指数仍具备再次上攻 4000 点及向上的潜力。但这一过程大概 率不会一蹴而就，短期内市场或将在 4000 点附近反复震荡， ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market has regained the 4000-point level, driven by a systematic layout for technological innovation under the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining reasonable liquidity through central bank operations, and a temporary easing of Sino-U.S. trade relations, creating a supportive external environment [2][8][10] Investment Themes - Focus on technology growth sectors, including AI, semiconductors, and robotics, which are supported by policy and show promising earnings in Q3 reports, shifting from speculation to performance verification [3][9] - High-dividend defensive sectors such as banking, utilities, and transportation provide safety margins during market fluctuations [3][9] - Cyclical sectors like photovoltaics, batteries, energy storage, rare earths, engineering machinery, chemicals, coal, non-ferrous metals, real estate, and brokerage are benefiting from anti-involution policies that optimize industry structures and improve profitability [3][9] Market Overview - On the recent trading day, major indices opened higher and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 4000 points, with significant gains in sectors like energy metals and photovoltaic equipment, while some sectors like banking and shipbuilding faced declines [4][5][6] - The trading volume reached 22,560 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4016.33 points, up 0.70%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.93% [5][6] Sector Highlights - The new energy sector saw substantial gains, with lithium mining, BC batteries, and photovoltaic equipment performing well, supported by ongoing global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality [6][7] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks surged as the island's full closure operation is set to officially launch on December 18, 2025, indicating strong policy support [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly breaking this level before closing lower, indicating a struggle for stability at this key threshold [2][4][8] - Factors contributing to the market's inability to maintain the 4000-point level include reduced attractiveness for new capital due to valuation recovery in some sectors, a lack of clear signals for strong economic recovery, and ongoing uncertainties in the international environment [2][8][10] - Despite recent challenges, there is a belief that the index has potential for upward movement, supported by clear policy signals and reasonable liquidity, although this process is expected to be gradual with potential short-term volatility [3][9] Group 2 - The military industry sector has shown significant growth, with a 25.46% increase in the first half of 2025, outperforming the broader market, driven by government support and geopolitical tensions [6][7] - The chemical industry, particularly the fluorochemical sector, is expected to see structural improvements in profitability due to policy support and demand growth, with specific segments like refrigerants experiencing price and volume increases [7] - The report suggests a focus on defensive assets and sectors with clear performance improvement expectations, such as large financials, while also identifying opportunities in technology sectors like AI, semiconductors, and robotics for medium-term investments [3][9]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully reclaiming the 3900-point mark, reflecting a positive medium-term outlook despite short-term volatility [2][8][10] - The overall market volume has significantly decreased, with a total trading volume of approximately 2 trillion yuan, indicating cautious sentiment among new investors [2][8][10] Market Overview - On Wednesday, the three major indices opened high but experienced a pullback before rising again in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.22% [4][5] - The sectors that performed well included aviation, automotive, chemical pharmaceuticals, and electric grid equipment, while shipping ports and small metals saw declines [4][5] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly chemical pharmaceuticals and CROs, is expected to have configuration value due to its previous underperformance and the aging population driving demand [6] - The robotics industry has shown strong growth, with significant increases in stock prices since January 7, 2025, driven by robust internal growth and supportive government policies [7] Future Market Outlook - The report maintains that the A-share market's upward trend may continue into the fourth quarter, although the momentum may weaken and volatility may increase [2][8] - Investors are advised to balance short-term defensive strategies with medium-term positioning, focusing on dividend assets like banks and public utilities, while also targeting growth sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and robotics [9][10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the previous high from October 8, 2024, which opens up further upward space for the market, with average daily trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan [4][12]. - The market is currently in a "volume and price rising" trend, although the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index have not yet surpassed their previous highs, indicating some pressure on the market [4][12]. - Investors are encouraged to actively participate in structural opportunities within the market, focusing on sectors such as AI and robotics, large financial institutions, and the infant and child concept [4][12]. Group 2 - Recent economic data shows that the industrial added value in China increased by 6.3% year-on-year from January to July 2025, indicating a stable production environment [7]. - The social financing scale reached 431.26 trillion yuan by the end of July, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, primarily driven by government bonds [8]. - Policies related to personal consumption loans and service industry loans are expected to stimulate demand and support future credit growth [9][10]. Group 3 - The report highlights that the market is likely to continue its upward trend due to a combination of stable economic fundamentals, supportive policies, and ample liquidity [7][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the technical and funding aspects of the market, particularly the performance of the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index [4][12]. - The recent pause in tariff increases between the US and China is seen as a positive development for trade, potentially boosting market risk appetite [10].