1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical events, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has led to fluctuations in prices of various commodities. The market is worried about issues such as rising oil prices, inflation, and potential recession. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these factors [1][2][5][7][8] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the international gold price denominated in London gold fell by 3.42% to $4491.67 per ounce; the domestic gold market also declined, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's 9999 gold down 2.55% to 1041.59, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold main contract down 2.22% to 1039.22 yuan per gram. The international silver price dropped 7.12% to $67.596 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: Trump gave Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to destroy its power plants; Iran considered "temporarily" allowing Japanese ships to pass through. There were rumors that Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries sold gold due to tight funds. There were outflows from domestic gold ETFs, and changes in inventories of various gold and silver products [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Gold prices may continue to correct in the short term, but the long - term logic remains unchanged. It is recommended to consider deploying long positions at an appropriate time. For silver, it is recommended to partially close out short positions [1] 3.2 Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices continued to decline significantly [2] - **Fundamentals**: The core logic is that the war has led to rising oil prices, and the probability of interest rate cuts this year has almost disappeared, leading to concerns about stagflation or recession. The supply of copper ore has become more tense, and the processing fee has reached - 67 US dollars. The demand side shows a certain pattern, and the domestic copper rod start - up rate has increased significantly, with inventory starting to decline [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trading core lies in the changes in the war situation. Attention should be paid to whether Trump takes certain actions and when the two sides start negotiations [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.66% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 24020 yuan per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate has increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East conflict has brought systematic risks to the aluminum supply chain and supported aluminum prices, but it has also pushed up inflation expectations. In the short term, the macro - level pressure on aluminum prices may be greater than the industrial - level support, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.46% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 3041 yuan per ton [3] - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and the electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The expected supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea in April, the increase in the cost of imported ore and energy shipping, and the reduction of regional available spot due to the maintenance and production reduction of some northern capacities support the price. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the high domestic inventory and the gradual release of new capacities may limit the upward space [3] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8455 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.05% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The number of industrial silicon furnaces in operation increased this week, mainly in the southwest region. The demand side shows different trends in different industries, such as the recovery of polysilicon production and the stable output of the organic silicon industry [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the weak overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metal market, the price of industrial silicon weakened rapidly in the first half of the week. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound pattern between 8100 - 8900 [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 143,860 yuan per ton, an increase of 1260 yuan, with a closing price increase of 0.88% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate decreased. The supply increased, and the demand of different materials also increased. The inventory showed a certain pattern of change [3] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, there are factors of supply - side disturbances and uncertain recovery of power demand. The market is expected to be under pressure, and the subsequent upward driving force depends on the consumption of new energy vehicles in March and the demand production schedule in April [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 37765 yuan per ton, a decrease of 785 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 2.04% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure has been marginally alleviated, and the demand side shows a pattern of price decline and production recovery [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon continues to decline, and the market sentiment is weak. It is recommended to focus on the actual procurement situation and transaction order prices of downstream products and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3] Tin - **Market Performance**: On Friday, tin prices continued to decline significantly [4] - **Fundamentals**: The core logic is similar to that of copper, with concerns about stagflation or recession. The supply of tin ore has been relatively relieved, and the demand side has increased replenishment enthusiasm after the price decline [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The trading core lies in the changes in the war situation. If the war does not ease, metals will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities after certain events [4] 3.3 Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3148 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The steel spot market trading is gradually recovering, with short - term weak supply and demand. The demand for building materials is expected to be weak, while the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is recovering, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the production increase space is limited [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the reference range of RB05 being 3120 - 3180 [5] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 816.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand situation of iron ore has improved marginally. The steel - making iron water output has increased, but the profit of steel mills is poor, and the subsequent increase in blast furnace production is limited. There are structural contradictions in the port inventory [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the reference range of I05 being 800 - 830 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1263.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 102.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The steel - making iron water output has increased, and there is a game in the coking coal price. The supply port clearance is at a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The futures of the 05 contract are at a premium to the spot [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the reference range of JM05 being 1200 - 1289.5 [5] 3.4 Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell slightly [6] - **Fundamentals**: The global soybean supply is expected to be abundant, and the current supply peak in Brazil and normal growth in Argentina. The demand side shows strong US soybean crushing and seasonal exports [6] - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans may enter a shock phase, affected by crude oil support and supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the realization of crude oil and US soybean demand, and the domestic market also follows the cost side [6] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to rise, while spot prices fell [6] - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress is approaching 80% but is relatively slow. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and the wheat price has weakened. The spot price is expected to be adjusted weakly [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The price in the production area has loosened, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6] Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed last Friday [6] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to enter a seasonal increase, and the demand shows a certain increase in exports [6] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the driving force of edible oils still follows crude oil, and attention should be paid to crude oil and production in the production area [6] Cotton - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, ICE US cotton futures prices fell, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuated narrowly [6] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, attention should be paid to the planting report data at the end of the month. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated strongly, and the spread between 5 - 9 contracts maintained a narrow - range shock [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the price range reference of 14900 - 15500 yuan per ton [6] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, while spot prices were stable [6] - **Fundamentals**: The demand for Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking has boosted the spot market, but the supply is sufficient due to the high inventory of laying hens [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to decline, and spot prices also continued to fall [6] - **Fundamentals**: The slaughter volume in March increased significantly compared with February, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to decline due to strong supply and weak demand [6] 3.5 Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the LLDPE main contract rose significantly. The low - price spot quotation in North China over the weekend was 8700 yuan per ton, and the 05 contract basis was weak [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to decrease significantly in the short term due to factors such as no new device production in the first half of the year and planned production reduction of some devices. The demand is improving as downstream enterprises resume work, and it is the peak season for agricultural film demand in March and April [7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, follow the crude oil trend and be strong. In the medium term, as the situation in the US - Iran conflict eases and new devices are put into production in the second half of the year, the supply - demand pressure will increase, and it is recommended to short at high prices [7] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 6098, up 4% [7] - **Fundamentals**: PVC prices rose due to the increase in international oil prices, and the supply and demand situation showed a pattern of supply reduction and stable demand. The social inventory began to decline [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct positive arbitrage [7] Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1076, up 1.6% [7] - **Fundamentals**: Glass was affected by crude oil, and the inventory began to decline. The supply side had significant production reduction, and the downstream demand was weak [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct positive arbitrage [7] PP - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the PP main contract rose significantly. The spot price in East China was 9200 yuan per ton, and the 05 contract basis was weak [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure has been significantly reduced in the short term due to factors such as reduced new device production and planned production reduction of some devices. The demand is improving as downstream enterprises resume work [7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, follow the crude oil trend and be strong. In the long - term, as the US - Iran conflict eases and new devices are put into production, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but still have contradictions, and it is recommended to short at high prices [7] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: From March 16th to March 20th, the US - Iran conflict caused the oil price to rise by 80%. The situation has escalated, and the oil price is likely to break through the previous high [8] - **Fundamentals**: The US - Iran conflict involves multiple Gulf countries, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a significant reduction in crude oil exports. Although the current production has not been significantly affected, the shipping volume has decreased, and some countries have been forced to reduce production [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The oil price may continue to rise if the Strait of Hormuz is continuously blocked, but it may reverse if the war situation eases. Attention should be paid to risks [8] Styrene - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the EB main contract rose slightly. The spot market quotation in East China was 10500 yuan per ton, and the trading atmosphere was average [8] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene has decreased slightly. The supply is expected to be tight in the short term due to the US - Iran conflict, and the demand side shows an improvement in the start - up rate [8] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, follow the crude oil trend. In the long - term, as the geopolitical conflict eases, the supply - demand situation will weaken [8] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1233, up 2% [8] - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash prices stopped falling and rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices. The supply is recovering, and the inventory is decreasing. The downstream demand shows different trends in different industries [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [8]

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货震荡走强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约 2605 合约涨幅 1.26%，收于 | | | | | 2406 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、周末华北地区深加工企业到场车辆持续增加，企业下调收购价。22日深加工企业 | | | | | 厂门到车1155辆，较前一日增加547辆。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示截至3月20日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约218万吨。玉 | | | | | 米累库速度提升，但北方港口库存仍处于同期低位水平；周五广东港口玉米库存48 | | | | | 万吨，内贸玉米日均出货在3.0吨。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 3、国家粮食交易中心公告显示将于3月25日进行最低价收购小麦拍卖80万吨，较前 | | | | | 一周增加30万吨。 | | | | | 4、Wind数据显示截至3月20日山东地区小麦-玉米价差为120元/吨，较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For corn, short - term price may face downward pressure due to rising temperature and increased wheat auctions, while mid - long term follows the substitution + planting cost pricing logic and is subject to policy guidance [4][7]. - For pigs, short - term prices may stay low due to supply - demand imbalance and weight pressure, with supply pressure easing from April - June 2026, and long - term supply pressure exists before August 2026 [12][15]. - For eggs, short - term prices are stable and strong, but supply pressure will increase later, and long - term price bottom cycle may be extended by the expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Corn - **Variety Review** - Spot: This week, corn spot prices fluctuated weakly. On the 20th, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - Futures: This week, corn futures fluctuated and sorted, with a weekly increase of 0.04%, closing at 2387 yuan/ton [4]. - View: Short - term prices may face downward pressure, and mid - term maintains a wide - range trading idea [4]. - **Important Information** - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices were stable with minor adjustments. Northeast deep - processing enterprises' average purchase price was 2252 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; North China's was 2454 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [5]. - Port prices were weakly stable. Jinzhou Port's purchase price was 2350 - 2360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Shekou Port's transaction price was 2490 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong narrowed by 20 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [5]. - Corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9030 lots to 69303 lots on March 19th [5]. - From January - February 2026, corn imports increased by 360,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative imports from October 2025 - February 2026 increased by 1.19 million tons year - on - year [5]. - 800,000 tons of minimum - purchase - price wheat will be auctioned on March 25th, 300,000 tons more than last week [5]. - Grain inventory at Guangzhou Port increased by 8.31% month - on - month, with corn inventory down 4.60% month - on - month [6]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: Rising temperature and policy - grain auctions may ease supply - demand tightness and pressure prices down. - Mid - long term: Follows substitution + planting cost pricing logic and is subject to policy guidance [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Mid - term: Maintain a wide - range trading idea. - Short - term: May face downward pressure. For the 2605 contract, resistance is at 2400, first support is at 2350 - 2370, and second support is at 2300 - 2330 [8]. Pigs - **Variety Review** - Spot: This week, pig spot prices fluctuated weakly. On the 20th, the national average price was 9.9 yuan/kg [12]. - Futures: Pig futures broke through support levels. The 2605 contract fell 8.34% this week, closing at 10220 yuan/ton [12]. - View: Short - term prices may stay low, and futures maintain a bottom - range trading idea [12]. - **Important Information** - On the 20th, the national average pig price was 9.89 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg. On the 21st, prices were stable in the north and weak in the south [13]. - At the end of December, the number of fertile sows was 39.61 million, down 2.9% year - on - year, 101.6% of the normal level [13]. - Piglet numbers increased from January - September 2025 (except July), and decreased from October - December 2025. In January 2026, piglet numbers increased by 1% month - on - month [13]. - As of March 19th, the average slaughter weight was 125.9 kg, up 0.02 kg from last week [13]. - On March 19th, the fat - lean price difference was 0.31 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin [13]. - As of March 20th, pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1051 lots [14]. - As of March 19th, the pork frozen product storage rate was 20.98%, up 0.56% from last week [14]. - There was a meeting requiring pig enterprises to report production targets and adjust down breeding and slaughter volumes [14]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: Supply - demand imbalance and weight pressure keep prices low. - Mid - term: Supply pressure eases from April - June 2026. - Long - term: Supply pressure exists before August 2026, and the expected high of far - month contracts is lowered [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Maintain a bottom - range trading idea. For the 2605 contract, support is at 10000, resistance is at 10500 - 10800; for the 2607 contract, support is at 11000, resistance is at 11500 - 11700; for the 2609 contract, support is at 12000 - 12300, resistance is at 12800 - 13000 [16]. Eggs - **Variety Review** - Spot: This week, egg spot prices fluctuated strongly. On the 20th, the egg price in Hebei Guantao was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 0.18 yuan/jin from last Friday [20]. - Futures: Egg futures fluctuated weakly. The 2605 contract fell 0.7% this week, closing at 3409 yuan/500kg [20]. - View: Short - term prices are stable and strong, but supply pressure will increase later, and the supply - demand imbalance continues [20]. - **Important Information** - On the 20th, egg prices rose steadily. The national average price in main producing areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin; in main selling areas, it was 3.38 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin [20]. - On the 20th, the average production - link inventory was 1.04 days, down 0.01 days; the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, up 0.01 days [20]. - On the 20th, the average price of old hens was 5.27 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin. As of March 19th, the weekly culling age was 505 days, unchanged from last week [20]. - This week, feed costs rose, with the average feed cost per jin of eggs at 3.16 yuan, up 1.61% month - on - month [20]. - In February, the number of laying hens was about 1.35 billion, up 0.6% month - on - month and 3.37% year - on - year. The estimated number in March is 1.342 billion [21]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: Stable inventory and low - level compared to last year keep prices stable and strong, but supply pressure will increase later. - Long - term: The expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may extend the price bottom cycle and limit price increases [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Before de - capacity is confirmed, maintain a short - selling idea. After the decline, the market may repair. Suggest taking partial profits on previous short positions and waiting for high - short opportunities [21].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ongoing tense situation in the Middle East and the strong performance of crude oil are expected to support the development of biodiesel in the United States and Indonesia, which will drive up the prices of international oils and fats, benefiting China's soybean oil market. However, the market volatility has increased [3]. - The USDA's upward adjustment of rapeseed production has put some pressure on the rapeseed oil market. The short - term rapeseed oil market may fluctuate in tandem with crude oil and Canadian rapeseed prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biodiesel policy in March [3]. - Geopolitical conflicts have significantly pushed up diesel prices, and Indonesia's consideration of restarting the B50 program has boosted market sentiment. Although the February MPOB report was bearish, the export situation in March has improved, and the main production areas may continue to reduce inventories. However, attention should be paid to the risks of a sharp decline in oil prices due to geopolitical easing [4]. - The tight situation in the Middle East will support the prices of soybeans and soybean - related products from the consumption side. The import cost of soybeans in China is expected to continue to rise, and the basis of soybeans and soybean meal is expected to strengthen. It is advisable to consider going long after the market stabilizes [5]. - The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is still weak, and the cost support has loosened. However, the cost of Canadian rapeseed is expected to remain relatively strong. The short - term rapeseed meal price may fluctuate, and investors can wait for a stable market to go long [6]. - The geopolitical conflict has affected the corn and corn starch markets. The US corn ending inventory is high, but the new - season supply - demand situation is expected to improve. The domestic corn market may fluctuate in a range, and it is advisable to consider going long at low prices [7]. - The downstream resistance to high - priced domestic soybeans is high, and the short - term price of soybean No. 1 may correct, but the downward space is expected to be limited. It is advisable to reduce long positions [8]. - The pig futures price has fallen sharply, and the market is waiting for further confirmation of production capacity reduction. Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider going long at low prices after the spot pressure is released [9]. - The egg spot price has rebounded, and the supply - demand pressure may improve. Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 05 contract below 3400 points [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil - fat industries have different market trends. For example, soybean No. 05 is expected to fluctuate widely, soybean oil No. 05 may rise after stabilizing, and the pig No. 05 contract may bottom - out in a fluctuating manner. The report provides support and resistance levels and corresponding trading strategies for each variety [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For different varieties, such as soybeans, oils, proteins, and energy products, the report provides information on current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies (mostly waiting and seeing, with a few suggesting short - selling at high prices or holding reverse arbitrage positions) [13][14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report lists the spot prices, price changes, and the basis of the main contracts and their price changes for various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy products, and breeding products [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It provides detailed data on the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It presents the import costs of corn from different countries and months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It provides data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Breeding - The report provides daily and weekly data on the prices, costs, profits, and other key indicators of pigs and eggs, as well as data on slaughter volume, inventory, and other aspects [20][21][22][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report includes a large number of charts to track the fundamentals of the breeding end (pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and the feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, soybean meal), such as price trends, inventory changes, and production and sales data [24][32][54]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The report shows the historical volatility and trading volume and open - interest data of options for various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, and corn [96][99]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The report provides information on the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [105][107].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is at a high level, prone to panic, and investors should guard against the risk of a pullback [3][5]. - The driving force of the soybean system for soybean oil is limited, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US consultations [3][5]. - Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [3][12]. - The spot prices in the soybean - producing areas are adjusted following the futures prices, and the futures market may fluctuate [3][12]. - Corn will run in a volatile manner [3][15]. - Raw sugar is gaining strength, and sugar will be volatile and bullish [3][19]. - Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the external market for cotton [3][23]. - Eggs will be in a weak and volatile state [3][28]. - The spot price of live pigs has weakened again, and the driving force for weight reduction is approaching [3][31]. - Attention should be paid to the macro - impact on peanuts [3][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 9,796 yuan/ton with a 1.07% increase, and the night - closing price was 9,738 yuan/ton with a - 0.59% decrease. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 8,616 yuan/ton with a 0.89% increase, and the night - closing price was 8,584 yuan/ton with a - 0.37% decrease. Rapeseed oil's daily - closing price was 9,854 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase, and the night - closing price was 9,865 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,166,586 tons, a 49.6% increase from the same period last month. From March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 2.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.44% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 51 million tons, Thailand's is expected to be 3.82 million tons, and Malaysia's is expected to be 19.6 million tons [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both - 1 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4,796 yuan/ton during the day with a - 2.22% decrease and 4,780 yuan/ton at night with a - 1.08% decrease. DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 3,042 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.33% decrease and 3,043 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.33% decrease. CBOT soybean 05 rose 0.41% to 1,168.5 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal 05 rose 3.48% to 332.9 dollars per short ton [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 19, 2026, CBOT soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive day. China rejected another batch of Brazilian soybean cargoes due to pests, which supported the US soybean market. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 177.85 million tons, an increase of 730,000 tons from the previous forecast. Argentina's soybean production forecast remains unchanged at 48.5 million tons [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean are both 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of C2605 was 2,384 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.04% increase and 2,380 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.17% decrease. The price of C2607 was 2,390 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.04% decrease and 2,388 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.08% decrease [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of northern corn shipped in bulk to ports was 2,350 - 2,365 yuan/ton, and the price of containerized first - class corn to ports was 2,400 - 2,420 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of corn in Northeast China increased by 20 yuan/ton in some areas, and the price in North China fluctuated [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [17]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 15.37 cents per pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,430 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,417 yuan/ton [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: High - frequency information shows that due to the rise in crude oil prices, sugar, which is linked to crude oil through ethanol, has attracted continuous attention from funds. As of March 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased by 10% year - on - year. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December 2025, an increase of 190,000 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 1 [21]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2605 closed at 15,150 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.39% decrease and 15,055 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.63% decrease. CY2605 closed at 21,285 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.07% decrease and 21,390 yuan/ton at night with a 0.49% increase [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of cotton was weak, and textile enterprises were worried about the continued decline of cotton prices, with low purchasing willingness. ICE cotton futures fell 1.44% due to weak weekly export sales data. As of March 12, 2026, the net increase in US cotton exports for the current market year was 196,700 bales, a 22% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the four - week average [24][25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2604 closed at 3,279 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.34% increase, and Egg 2605 closed at 3,367 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.85% decrease [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is - 1 [29]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 9,980 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 10,050 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton. The prices of live - pig futures contracts 2605, 2607, and 2609 were 10,335 yuan/ton, 11,370 yuan/ton, and 12,500 yuan/ton respectively [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 2 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of PK604 was 8,080 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decrease, and the price of PK605 was 8,188 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% decrease [35]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Nanyang Baisha peanuts was 3.8 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and the price of Kaifeng large peanuts was 3.4 - 4.1 yuan per catty. In Jilin, the price of 308 peanuts was about 4.6 yuan per catty. In Liaoning, the price of 308 peanuts was 4.5 - 4.6 yuan per catty. In Shandong, the supply from the grassroots level was limited, and the trading of finished products was average [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices (London gold) fell by - 3.39% to $4650.503 per ounce; domestic gold (9999 on the Gold Exchange) fell by - 3.58% to 1061, and the Shanghai Gold main contract fell by - 3.32% to 1062 yuan per gram. International silver prices fell by 3.56% to $72.778 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: Global central banks' hawkish stances due to inflation pressure from the Middle - East conflict, US approval of Russian oil sales, and Trump's call for Powell to cut interest rates. There were small outflows from domestic gold ETFs, and changes in various gold and silver inventories [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Consider re - laying out long positions in gold; partially close out short positions in silver [1] Base Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The main electrolytic aluminum contract closed at 24180 yuan per ton, down - 2.50% from the previous trading day, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 105 yuan per ton, and the LME price at 3340 dollars per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product operating rate [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to fluctuate weakly, and suggest waiting and seeing [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The main alumina contract closed at 3027 yuan per ton, down - 0.69% from the previous trading day, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 344 yuan per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Stable increase in alumina operating capacity and high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to Guinea's bauxite policy [2] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8285 yuan per ton, down 90 yuan or - 1.07% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 6591 lots to 253549 lots (+2.67%), a decrease in trading volume by 33633 lots to 172736 lots (-16.30%), an increase in funds in the variety by 0.78 billion to 31.95 billion, and 21669 lots of warehouse receipts (no change) [2][3] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in the number of furnaces in operation, expected increase in production in Sichuan due to lower electricity prices, slight inventory reduction, and expected increase in monthly production of polysilicon, stable production in the organic silicon industry, and rising aluminum alloy prices and operating rate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The market is affected by macro - events, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 8900 [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 142,600 yuan per ton, down 7520 yuan or - 5.0% [3] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, increase in weekly production of lithium carbonate, expected increase in March production, increase in production of downstream materials, and changes in inventory [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The market expects faster domestic lithium resource approval, but the price is expected to be under pressure [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 38550 yuan per ton, down 1555 yuan or - 3.88% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in open interest by 1612 lots to 32966 lots (-4.66%), an increase in trading volume by 4804 lots to 13502 lots (+55.23%), a decrease in funds in the variety by 2.26 billion to 17.99 billion, and 9910 lots of warehouse receipts (no change) [3] - **Fundamentals**: Slight increase in production and inventory, and changes in downstream product prices and production schedules [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price has dropped, and the market will test the production cost pressure level of leading factories [3] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3133 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in apparent demand and production, weak supply - demand in the short term, low profit for steel mills, and limited production increase space [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and close out short positions opportunistically. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 814.5 yuan per ton, up 9.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in pig iron production, decrease in inventory, neutral - weak supply - demand, and high inventory days [4][5] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1161 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in pig iron production, the first round of coke price cut, high inventory in some links, and high futures valuation [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and close out short positions opportunistically. The reference range for JM05 is 1140 - 1200 [5] Agricultural Products Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices showed mixed trends [6] - **Fundamentals**: Over 70% of grain sales completed, low inventory at ports and downstream, weakening spot prices in production areas [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5427 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. The basis between Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was 26 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar after processing and tax payment was 610 yuan per ton [6] - **Fundamentals**: Expectation of a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, increase in Guangxi's sugar production estimate, and macro - funds' long - position allocation [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [6] Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices fell, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuated weakly. Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated downwards [6] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in US cotton export sales, decrease in unpriced selling orders, increase in the operating rate of domestic textile enterprises [6][7] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a price range of 15000 - 15400 yuan per ton [7] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices rose slightly [7] - **Fundamentals**: Rainy weather affected storage, high egg - laying hen inventory, and low - season demand [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to weaken, and spot prices continued to fall, with the national average price below 10 yuan/kg [7] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in slaughter volume in March, high slaughter weight, and low - season demand [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be weak [7] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose significantly. The low - price spot in North China was 8400 yuan per ton, with a weak basis. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [8] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in domestic supply due to planned production cuts, and improvement in demand in the peak season [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [8] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5862, up 0.4% [8] - **Fundamentals**: Price increase due to rising oil prices, high inventory, and weak real - estate demand [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [8] Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1065, down 1.3% [8] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in supply, decrease in inventory, and weak real - estate demand [8][9] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9] PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract rose significantly. The spot price in East China was 9100 yuan per ton, with a weak basis. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [9] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in supply due to production cuts, and improvement in demand [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term and short at high prices in the medium - long term [9] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to the US - Iran conflict, with a significant increase [9] - **Fundamentals**: The conflict affected multiple Gulf countries, with a large potential reduction in oil exports. There was a decrease in Iranian oil exports [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Oil prices may continue to rise if the conflict persists, but may reverse if the situation eases [9] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract rose slightly. The spot price in East China was 10300 yuan per ton, with a general trading atmosphere. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [9][10] - **Fundamentals**: Improvement in the pure benzene supply - demand pattern, slight reduction in styrene inventory, and improvement in downstream demand [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term, and the supply - demand will weaken in the long term [10] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1217, down 0.8% [10] - **Fundamentals**: Supply recovery, decrease in inventory, and weak downstream demand [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends, and investors are advised to be cautious and make decisions based on specific market conditions [5][6][7] - For some sectors, there are short - term uncertainties and potential risks due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [9][13][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力合约 rose by 0.10%, 0.07%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively [5] - The central bank conducted 130 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 115 billion yuan on that day [5] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7] 3.2 Equity Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures主力合约 fell by 1.31%, 1.29%, 2.37%, and 1.90% respectively [9] - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [9] 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold主力合约 fell by 4.63%, and the silver主力合约 fell by 9.99% [11] - The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [12][13] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound, but the space may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [15] 3.5 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. With the end of key meetings, iron ore demand may increase, but the effect may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [17][18] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is weak. Coke supply is stable, and demand may increase. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions [20] 3.7 Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon主力合约 rose by 0.10%, and the silicon iron主力合约 fell by 0.34%. The cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating upward, and the supply is still in a surplus state. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [22][24] 3.8 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the intensification of the US - Israel - Iran war. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. However, Israel's decision not to attack Iranian energy facilities and the joint statement of six countries to escort the Strait of Hormuz led to a correction in crude oil prices. It is recommended to wait on the sidelines for the crude oil主力合约 [25][26][27] 3.9 Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP in Hangzhou and LLDPE in Yuyao rose. In the short term, polyolefins show a contraction trend. In the long term, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and the demand shows the characteristics of "rising production but cautious procurement". It is recommended to wait on the sidelines [28][29] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力合约 rose by 1.17%. The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to maintain a strong - side shock pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of plant maintenance, crude oil price trends, and changes in tire export orders [30][31] 3.11 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力合约 fell by 2.51%, and the 20 - grade rubber主力合约 fell by 2.08%. The Middle East conflict increases the cost of synthetic rubber, strengthening the substitution demand for natural rubber. However, the expected new rubber supply and slow demand recovery limit the price increase. It is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern [33][35] 3.12 PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC主力合约 rose by 0.39%. The short - term cost support is strong, and the price shows a strong - side shock pattern, but the upside is restricted by high inventory. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength in the medium term [36][37] 3.13 Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea主力合约 fell by 0.32%. The current market is facing high supply and policy constraints. The demand is weak, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of export policies and the demand connection after April [38][39] 3.14 PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2605主力合约 fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed. The supply is expected to be tight, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking stage. However, due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the price may fluctuate and there is a risk of correction [40] 3.15 PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2605主力合约 fell. The processing fee was adjusted, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly affected by the cost side. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to operate with caution [41] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力合约 rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The short - term trend is stronger than other polyester varieties, but due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, caution is needed [42] 3.17 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606主力合约 rose slightly. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal demand is stable. The low inventory and strong cost may provide support. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, plant dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [43][44][45] 3.18 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605主力合约 fell. The cost support weakened, and the polyester demand was weak. Due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, it is recommended to participate with caution [46] 3.19 Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash主力 2605 fell. The supply is at a high level, the inventory is shrinking, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and adjust, and the fluctuation range is expected to narrow [47][48] 3.20 Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass主力 2605 fell. The production line is shrinking, the inventory reduction speed is slowing down, and the downstream demand recovery is slow. The cost pressure is still there, and the futures price may fluctuate [49] 3.21 Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda主力 2605 rose slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price of alumina is rising, and the demand for caustic soda is expected to be good. Attention should be paid to overseas plant dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and plant maintenance progress [50][51][52] 3.22 Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp主力 2605 rose. The port inventory is decreasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The fluctuation risk of softwood pulp is relatively high, and hardwood pulp is relatively stable [53][54] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate主力合约 fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply is in a tight balance. The demand in the consumer end is improving, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase [55] 3.24 Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper主力合约 fell. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the supply pressure is large in the short term. However, the downstream demand is improving, which provides support for the price. The copper price is expected to run weakly [56][57][58] 3.25 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum主力合约 and the alumina主力合约 fell. The supply pressure of alumina is increasing, and the cost support is strengthening. The aluminum production in the Middle East is affected, and the domestic consumption is recovering. The aluminum price is in a phased correction [59][60] 3.26 Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc主力合约 fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by the geopolitical conflict. The social inventory is increasing, and the zinc price is under pressure [61][62] 3.27 Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead主力合约 fell. The production of primary lead is increasing, and the demand for lead - acid batteries is recovering. However, the geopolitical risk affects exports, and the lead price is under pressure [63][64] 3.28 Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin主力合约 fell. The geopolitical conflict affects the price, and the supply is gradually easing. The demand in the emerging fields provides support, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuation [65][66] 3.29 Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures主力合约 rose. The geopolitical conflict affects the price, and the nickel ore supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in a surplus state. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the high oil price provides support. The domestic soybean supply may be tight in the short term and relatively loose in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The export volume increased, and the domestic inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider reducing or closing long positions [70][71] 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The domestic import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil shows different trends. It is recommended to wait and see [72][73] 3.33 Cotton - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long term, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly in the long term [74][75][76] 3.34 Sugar - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The foreign sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The increase in oil price will affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, and the long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise [77][78] 3.35 Apple - On the previous trading day, the apple futures rose significantly. With the peak of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the demand is released, and the inventory is decreasing. The apple market is expected to run strongly [79] 3.36 Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live pig主力合约 fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [80][81] 3.37 Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg主力合约 fell. The egg supply is expected to be at a high level in March, and the supply improvement in the far - month is worrying. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month lightly [82] 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn主力合约 rose slightly, and the corn starch主力合约 was flat. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The demand for corn starch is improving, but the supply is abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money put options when the price rises sharply [83][84][85] 3.39 Logs - On the previous trading day, the log主力 2605 rose. The supply of New Zealand logs is increasing, and the downstream demand is improving. The cost pressure is increasing, and the futures price is in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the external market quotation, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [86][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Short [1][3] - Egg: High Short [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, rising temperatures and policy - grain auctions may ease the tight supply - demand situation and pressure spot prices to decline. In the long - term, the pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1]. - Pig: In the short - term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists, and pig prices may remain low. In the medium - term, supply pressure will ease from April to June. In the long - term, supply pressure exists before August, and the expected high of far - month contracts is lowered [1][3]. - Egg: In the short - term, egg prices are stable and strong, but supply pressure is postponed. In the long - term, the increasing scale of egg - chicken farming may limit price increases, and waiting for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - The corn futures fluctuated and consolidated last night. The main 2605 contract fell 0.17% to 2380 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices were stable. Northeast deep - processing purchase average price was 2253 yuan/ton, and North China's was 2452 yuan/ton [1]. - North - South port prices were weakly stable. Jinzhou Port's purchase price was 2350 - 2370 yuan/ton, and Shekou Port's transaction price was 2490 yuan/ton [1]. - The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 140 yuan/ton [1]. - The number of corn futures warehouse receipts was 78333, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - From January to February 2026, the cumulative corn import volume was 540,000 tons, an increase of 360,000 tons compared to the same period last year [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: Rising temperatures and policy - grain auctions may ease the tight supply - demand situation and pressure spot prices [1]. - Long - term: The pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a wide - range trading idea in the medium - term. The 2605 contract's pressure is at 2400, the first support is 2350 - 2370, and the second support is 2300 - 2330 [1]. Pig Market Review - The pig futures continued to decline. The main 2605 contract fell 2.18% to 10335 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On the 19th, the national average pig price was 9.98 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [1]. - As of December, the number of fertile sows was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, 101.6% of the normal level [1]. - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased, and the number of pig slaughterings increased before March. From October to December 2025, the number of new - born piglets decreased, and supply pressure will ease from April [1]. - As of March 19, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 125.9 kg, an increase of 0.02 kg from the previous week [1]. - On March 19, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.31 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [1]. - As of March 19, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts was 1051, a decrease of 1 from the previous day [1]. - On the 19th, relevant departments required pig enterprises to report production targets and make reduction commitments [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists, and pig prices may remain low [3]. - Medium - term: Supply pressure will ease from April to June, with the impact of epidemics being the key focus [3]. - Long - term: Supply pressure exists before August, and the expected high of far - month contracts is lowered [3]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a bottom - range trading idea. For the 2605 contract, the support is 10000 - 10300, and the pressure is 10800 - 11000; for the 2607 contract, the support is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure is 11800 - 12000; for the 2609 contract, the support is 12000 - 12300, and the pressure is 12800 - 13000 [3]. Egg Market Review - The egg futures fluctuated downward. The main 2605 contract fell 0.85% to 3367 yuan/500KG [3]. Important Information - On the 19th, the national average egg price in the main production areas was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day; in the main sales areas, it was 3.35 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin [3]. - On the 19th, the average inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous day; in the circulation link, it was 1.17 days, unchanged [3]. - On the 19th, the average price of old hens was 5.3 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of March 19, the weekly culling age of old hens was 505 days, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - In February, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.35 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in March is 1.342 billion [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: Inventory is relatively stable but lower than last year. Egg prices are stable and strong, but supply pressure is postponed, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists [3]. - Long - term: The increasing scale of egg - chicken farming may limit price increases, and waiting for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [3]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of near - month contracts. For the 2604 contract, the pressure is 3290 - 3300, the first support is 3250, and if it breaks 3250, the support moves down to 3150 - 3200; for the 2605 contract, if it breaks 3400, the support moves down to 3300 - 3340 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side has a relatively high inventory, and the elimination of old laying hens is slow, resulting in sufficient overall supply. However, with schools fully reopened and factories resuming work, the pre - Qingming Festival stocking has started in advance, significantly boosting the off - season demand. Feed costs have risen, leading farmers to hold back on selling and support prices, causing the spot price to rebound. The rise in spot prices further weakens the expectation of a decline in the laying hen inventory. From a futures perspective, the egg market remains volatile, and short - term trading is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3367 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 33; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5217 hands, a decrease of 5790; the egg futures spread between May and September is - 407 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 1; the trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 170042 hands, a decrease of 2462; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The egg spot price is 3.22 yuan/jin, with no change; the basis (spot - futures) is - 146 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 33 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 109.28 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.75; the national culled laying hen index is 124.98 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 23.8; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.5 yuan/feather, with no change; the national new - hatched chick index is 71.99 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 21.63; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04; the egg - laying chicken farming profit is - 0.33 yuan/head, an increase of 0.02; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 10.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.52; the national culled chicken age is 500 days, with no change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 16.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07; the average wholesale price of pork is 4.85 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.46 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.17; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.17 days, a decrease of 0.1; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.07 days, a decrease of 0.15; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 14898.72 tons, an increase of 1853.2 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 6864 tons, a decrease of 440 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 6.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Hebei is 6.13 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Guangdong is 7.27 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 from yesterday; the average egg price in Beijing is 6.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil followed the decline of international oil prices. Although the positive drivers persisted, the amplitude increased. It was recommended to reduce long positions in the main contract or consider buying put options for protection. The support level of the main 05 contract was 8450 - 8500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level was 8950 - 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term rapeseed oil market might continue to resonate with crude oil and Canadian rapeseed prices. It was suggested to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long at low prices. The support level of the 05 contract was 9450 - 9460, and the resistance level was 10000 - 10100 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Although there were positive factors in exports and biodiesel, the risk of a sharp decline in oil prices due to geopolitical easing needed to be noted. It was advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then replenish long positions. The support level of the main contract was 9400 - 9410, and the resistance level was 10200 - 10220 [2]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: The cost - side support was expected to continue, and the callback space was limited. It was recommended to go long after the market stabilized, and a conservative strategy could be combined with option positions. Short - selling was not recommended [3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The cost side still had support, but due to the repeated geopolitical news, the short - term price might fluctuate. It was advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then look for long - entry opportunities [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The price was expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and there was an upward trend in the medium term. It was recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices, and for options, it was advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Although the valuation was high, there were still positive drivers. It was recommended to reduce long positions. The support level of the 05 contract was 4750 - 4800 yuan/ton, and the resistance level was 5000 - 5050 yuan/ton [6]. - **Pigs**: The far - month futures contracts had a premium over the near - term spot and near - month contracts. Conservative investors could hold long positions in far - month contracts, while radical investors could wait for the spot pressure to be released and then go long lightly near the 2607 contract. Option strategies could be used [7]. - **Eggs**: The supply - demand pressure might continue to improve. Conservative investors were advised to wait and see, while radical investors could go long the 05 contract below 3400 points. Short - selling near the historical low range of near - month contracts was not recommended [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Soybean No. 1 05**: It was expected to fluctuate widely. It was recommended to wait and see temporarily [10]. - **Soybean No. 2 05**: It was expected to fluctuate widely. It was recommended to wait and see temporarily [10]. - **Soybean Oil 05**: It was expected to fluctuate widely. It was recommended to go long after the market stabilized [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil 05**: It was expected to fluctuate. It was recommended to wait and see temporarily [10]. - **Palm 05**: It was expected to rise with fluctuations. It was recommended to replenish long positions after the market stabilized [10]. - **Soybean Meal 05**: It was expected to fluctuate. It was recommended to go long after the market stabilized [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05**: It was expected to fluctuate. It was recommended to go long after the market stabilized [10]. - **Corn 05**: It was expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to go long at low prices [10]. - **Starch 05**: It was expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to go long at low prices [10]. - **Pigs 05**: It was expected to find the bottom with fluctuations. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Eggs 05**: It was expected to find the bottom with fluctuations. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: Most varieties were recommended to wait and see, while for corn 5 - 9, it was recommended to go short at high prices, and for pigs 5 - 7, it was recommended to hold reverse arbitrage positions [11][12]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: Most varieties were recommended to wait and see, while for the 05 beans oil - meal ratio and 05 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, it was recommended to take a long - biased approach [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provided the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, peanuts, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, starch, pigs, and eggs [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It included the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as the arrival premium, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It showed the inventory changes and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provided the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It included the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - It provided the daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs, including spot prices, key data such as breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and supply - demand data [19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs)**: It included the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and related price charts of pigs and eggs [25][27][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: It included the production, export, inventory, and other related charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [34][41][46]. - **Feed**: It included the price, basis, inventory, and other related charts of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [50][58][65][77]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It provided the historical volatility charts of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio charts of corn options [92][93]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It provided the warehouse receipt quantity charts of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest charts of pigs and eggs [95][98].