国泰海通晨报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 鲍威尔在杰克逊·霍尔年会的发言奠定转鸽基础，预计新一轮预防式降息将要来临，但在通胀掣 肘下，年内或降息两次。与 2024 年类似，当时鲍威尔表态"现在是调整政策的时候了"，从 9 月份开 始接连降息，全年降息 100BP。本次鲍威尔表态"基线展望和风险平衡的转移可能需要调整我们的政 请务必阅读文章最后一页相关法律声明 1 of 64 汪浩(分析师) 0755-23976659 wanghao8@gtht.com S0880521120002 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 liangzhonghua@gtht.com S0880525040019 宏观专题：《新一轮预防式降息将至》2025-08-23 美东时间 2025 年 8 月 22 日，鲍威尔在一年一度的杰克逊·霍尔全球央行年会发表 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [56]. Core Insights - The WAIC conference highlighted key trends in technology innovation, emphasizing the acceleration of intelligent agent applications by companies like Tencent and JD.com, the rapid development of open-source ecosystems supporting AI, and the focus on world models and embodied intelligence [5][4]. - The report recommends companies with strong technological capabilities and broad application scenarios, including Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, Li Auto, and Xpeng, as they are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for large model applications [5][4]. Summary by Sections AI Development and Applications - Tencent has launched over 10 intelligent agents across various verticals, while JD.com has open-sourced its JoyAgent intelligent agent [5][4]. - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen has surpassed 400 million downloads, with over 140,000 derivative models created [5][4]. - The report notes that Tencent's mixed 3D world model 1.0 significantly simplifies the 3D scene construction process, enhancing efficiency in game development and digital content creation [9][4]. Autonomous Driving - The report identifies a dual inflection point in the autonomous driving sector, with improved regulatory environments and the introduction of Tesla's advanced Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology in China expected to boost competition [4][5]. - The penetration rate of L2+ autonomous driving vehicles in China is estimated to be around 30-35%, with projections indicating it could exceed 50% by 2026 [4][5]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with robust technological foundations and diverse application scenarios, specifically highlighting Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, Li Auto, and Xpeng [5][4]. - The anticipated growth in cloud business driven by the increasing demand for large model applications is expected to support the stock performance of these companies [5][4].

Group 1 - Xianruida Medical - B (06669) surged over 18% after receiving registration approval from the National Medical Products Administration for its Armoni-HP® balloon dilation catheter [1] - Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (02373) rose nearly 3% as it announced plans to further acquire a 20% stake in Guangzhou Nairier [1] - Kingdee International (00268) increased over 3% due to adjustments in service fees expected to drive subscription ARR growth by 3% to 5% next year [1] - Sasa International (00178) fell over 5%, with its stock price dropping nearly 20% since its earnings report, as all mainland stores are set to close by the end of June [1] - Jingji Financial International (01468) dropped over 7% after issuing a profit warning, expecting a net loss of no more than HKD 125 million [1] - Kuaishou - W (01024) rose over 3%, with its AI subsidiary achieving an annualized revenue run rate exceeding USD 100 million [1] - Hengyue Holdings (01723) fell over 6% after a profit warning, anticipating a 90% decrease in annual profit attributable to shareholders [1] Group 2 - Military stocks rose against the market trend, with China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) up 7.27%, Aerospace Holdings (00031) up 2.44%, and AVIC (02357) up 1.68% [2] - Victory Securities (08540) soared over 61% as it actively expands into the virtual asset business [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) increased over 4% amid expectations that a new round of cobalt export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo may exceed market expectations [2] - China Financial Leasing (02312) surged 229% yesterday and rose another 43% today after a premium acquisition of approximately 35% equity by Meitu's founder [2] - Guotai Junan International (01788) rose over 11% with a trading range of 104%, becoming the first Chinese broker to offer comprehensive virtual asset services [2] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increased over 3% as its new battery research institute and Pack integration project is set to begin trial production [2] Group 3 - Innovent Biologics (01801) fell over 4% after announcing a placement of 55 million shares at HKD 78.36 each, a discount of about 4.9% from the closing price on June 25, aiming to raise approximately HKD 4.265 billion [3] - Zhouliufu (06168) opened 11.25% higher on its debut, ranking fifth among jewelry brands in China by store count [3] - Rongchang Biologics (09995) opened nearly 15% lower after licensing its Taitasip to US Vor Bio for an upfront payment of USD 45 million [3] - Western Cement (02233) opened over 5% higher as it plans to sell its Xinjiang company and assets to release operational cash flow for expansion projects [3] - Yingtong Holdings (06883) opened 10.42% lower on its debut, being the largest non-branded perfume group in China [3] Group 4 - BP (BP.US) rose nearly 2% as Shell entered preliminary talks to acquire the company [4] - General Mills (GIS.US) saw its stock price drop over 5.1%, reaching a five-year low [4] - Brain Regen Technologies (RGC.US) fell over 5%, with a market cap shrinking to USD 10.7 billion [4] - Blackberry (BB.US) increased over 12% [4] - Google (GOOGL.US) rose over 2% after launching its first device robot model, Gemini Robotics On-Device [4] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) increased over 4% ahead of its online shareholder meeting, with Loop Capital noting that the AI trend driving Nvidia's stock price remains strong [4] - Chip stocks generally rose, with Supermicro (SMCI.US) up over 8%, Nvidia (NVDA.US) up over 4%, and AMD (AMD.US) up over 3% [4] - Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) fell over 4% as Spain's health ministry investigates whether it violated advertising laws for prescription drugs [4] Group 5 - Therapeutics (NKTR.US) surged nearly 30% after positive results from clinical trials for its eczema treatment [5] - Tesla (TSLA.US) dropped over 5.3% as new car registrations in the EU fell 40.5% year-on-year in May, marking the fifth consecutive month of significant decline [5] Group 6 - US cryptocurrency stocks collectively surged, with Sharplink Gaming (SBET.US) up nearly 6%, Coinbase (COIN.US) up over 3%, and Robinhood (HOOD.US) up over 0.9% [6] - Circle (CRCL.US), a stablecoin giant, continued its downward trend, falling over 10% [6] - Tiger Brokers (TIGR.US) surged nearly 22% as traditional financial institutions explore virtual assets, igniting market enthusiasm [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [33] Core Insights - Southbound funds continue to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with a net purchase of 13.681 billion yuan during the week, totaling 624.42 billion yuan year-to-date, which is 83.92% of the total net purchase for 2024 [1] - Major internet companies are currently at relatively low valuations, with projected P/E ratios for 2025 as follows: Xiaomi (27), Tencent (16), Alibaba (12), Meituan (17), Baidu (9), Pinduoduo (10), JD.com (7), and Kuaishou (11) [1] - Kuaishou's AI product, Keling AI, has achieved an annualized revenue run rate exceeding 100 million USD within ten months of launch, with a user base surpassing 22 million globally [1] Summary by Sections Southbound Funds - Southbound funds have shown a strong inflow, with Meituan receiving the highest net purchase of 8.613 billion yuan [28] - The overall trend indicates a growing interest in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the IP economy and consumer recovery sectors [2] AI and Technology - The report highlights the upcoming launch of advanced driving technologies from companies like Tesla and Xiaopeng, with a focus on laser radar and chip suppliers [2] - Kuaishou's AI product is noted for its rapid revenue growth and user acquisition, indicating strong commercial potential in AI applications [1] Consumer and IP Economy - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in the IP economy, with companies like Pop Mart and Blukoo being highlighted for their strong market positions and product offerings [2] - The upcoming IPOs and seasonal consumption trends are expected to drive market expectations higher [2] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,792.54 points, reflecting a weekly increase of approximately 2.16% [14] - The report suggests that the current market conditions are favorable for investment in high-growth sectors, particularly in consumer and technology [2]

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting external risks and the need for new momentum for upward movement [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technology and consumer sectors, suggesting a defensive allocation in high-dividend stocks due to ongoing overseas risks [2][3] - The report lists a selection of "golden stocks" with detailed financial metrics, including Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and others, indicating their potential for growth and investment value [3][72] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings is recognized for its strong competitive advantages across multiple business areas, particularly in gaming and advertising, with expectations for EPS growth driven by high-margin business expansion [11][12] - Alibaba is noted for its leadership in AI and cloud computing, with anticipated revenue growth from its cloud services and improved profitability from its core business segments [19][20] - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from its AI capabilities and content consumption trends, with projections for significant revenue growth in the coming years [24][25] - Xiaomi is highlighted for its innovative automotive business and strong performance in the smartphone market, with expectations for continued growth in high-end products [30][31] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is expected to see improved performance due to lower international oil prices and a high dividend payout ratio, making it attractive for income-focused investors [43][44] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings is positioned for growth in the online investment sector, leveraging technology to enhance its product offerings and market share [51][52] - Anta Sports is recognized for its strong brand performance and strategic acquisitions, which are expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [56][57] - New Energy is anticipated to benefit from privatization efforts and improved profit structures, with a significant valuation upside [60][61] - Innovent Biologics is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth driven by its expanding product pipeline and effective cost management [66][67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 1.74% from May 24 to May 30, 2025, ranking 6th among industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [12][18] - The Chinese gaming market reached a size of 27.351 billion yuan in April 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 21.93% and a month-on-month increase of 2.47% [25][27] - The film industry generated a total box office of 208 million yuan in the latest week, with "Lilo & Stitch" leading the box office [36][37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) increased by 1.74%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which decreased by 0.03% [12] - Notable performers included Yuanlong Yatu, Times Publishing, and Youzu Network, with respective weekly increases of 30.90%, 21.67%, and 15.84% [18][19] Industry Key Data AI Applications - Kuaishou's Q1 performance showed a global user base of over 22 million for its AI product, with quarterly revenue reaching 150 million yuan [2] Gaming Data - The mobile gaming market in April 2025 was valued at 20.424 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.41% [25] - The overseas revenue from self-developed games reached 1.554 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.62% [25] Film Data - The top three films in the latest week were "Lilo & Stitch," "Dumpling Queen," and "Hunter's Game," with respective box office earnings of 81.44 million yuan, 33.29 million yuan, and 29.23 million yuan [36][37] Industry Key Events and Announcements - Kuaishou launched the Tian Gong Super AI APP, marking a significant step in AI applications [42] - Tencent released a voice model for its Claude chatbot, enhancing user interaction capabilities [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 1.74% from May 24 to May 30, 2025, ranking 6th among industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [12][18] - The Chinese gaming market reached a size of 27.351 billion yuan in April 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 21.93% and a month-on-month increase of 2.47% [25][27] - The film industry generated a total box office of 208 million yuan in the latest week, with "Lilo & Stitch" leading the box office [36][37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) increased by 1.74%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which fell by 0.03% [12] - Notable performers included Yuanlong Yatu, Times Publishing, and Youzu Network, with respective weekly increases of 30.90%, 21.67%, and 15.84% [18][19] Industry Key Data AI Applications - Recent developments include the launch of the Tian Gong Super Intelligent APP by Kunlun Wanwei and the release of various AI models by Tencent and DeepSeek [22][42] Gaming Data - The mobile gaming market in April 2025 reached 20.424 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.41% [25][27] - Notable new game releases included Tencent's "Victory Goddess: New Beginning" and "Courageous Land" [25][33] Film Data - The total box office for the week was 208 million yuan, with "Lilo & Stitch" earning 81.44 million yuan, accounting for 39.0% of the total [36][37] Industry Events and Announcements - Kunlun Wanwei launched the Tian Gong Super Intelligent APP, marking a significant step in AI applications [42] - Kuaishou reported Q1 earnings with total revenue of 32.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macroeconomic Data**: In April 2025, China's GDP growth remained stable, while manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed a decline. Social financing scale decreased, and inflation remained low. Industrial enterprise profits increased, led by new - energy industries [1]. - **Commodity Investment**: The global economic situation and policies have an impact on various commodities. For example, the US consumer confidence index improved in May, the copper market had a supply surplus in March, and the active drilling platform number in the US decreased [2][3][4]. - **Financial News**: Policies such as China's fiscal and monetary policies, and international trade policies have affected the financial market. Credit bonds have become popular, and the bond market has shown certain trends [10][14]. - **Stock Market**: The A - share market was volatile, and the Hong Kong stock market rose. Some companies' performance and capital operations attracted attention [29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1]. - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down from 50.5% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, down from 50.8% [1]. - Social financing scale in April was 11,591 billion yuan, a significant decrease from 58,961 billion yuan in the previous month [1]. - CPI in April was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month; PPI was - 2.7% year - on - year, down from - 2.5% [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - The ASEAN - China - GCC Summit aimed to strengthen cooperation in multiple fields and promote free trade [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange revised some business regulations, effective from June 27, 2025 [2]. - In May, the US consumer confidence index rose from 85.7 to 98, exceeding expectations [3]. - In March, the US FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the S&P/CS20 - city housing price index increased by 4.1% year - on - year [3]. Metal - In March 2025, the world refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons [4]. - As of May 27, the gold持仓 of SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged at 922.46 tons [4]. - Guinea Alumina Corporation hoped to resume negotiations to lift bauxite mining restrictions [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - From January to April 2025, Thailand's coal imports decreased by 8.4% year - on - year, with a significant decline in brown coal imports [6]. Energy and Chemicals - The number of active on - shore drilling platforms in the US decreased to 553, 26 less than the previous year [7]. Agricultural Products - Brazil's soybean exports in May were expected to be 14.03 million tons, down from the previous forecast [8]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in March 2025 were 896,968 tons [9]. 3. Financial News Open Market - On May 27, the central bank conducted 448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 91 billion yuan [10]. Key News - The ASEAN - China - GCC Summit promoted cooperation and free trade [11][12]. - China refuted the "China debt responsibility theory" [12]. - The Ministry of Commerce supported the construction of national economic development zones [12]. - In April, China's industrial enterprise profits increased by 3% year - on - year, with new - energy industries leading the growth [13]. - Shanghai tax authorities launched a pilot project for real - estate trust registration [13]. - Many bank wealth - management subsidiaries were applying to join the China Insurance Asset Management Association [13]. - The Ministry of Finance planned to re - issue 105 billion yuan of special treasury bonds [14]. - After the May reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, credit bonds became popular [14]. - A private venture capital institution obtained approval to issue science - innovation bonds [14]. - As of April 2025, the scale of public funds exceeded 33 trillion yuan [15]. - Jinan successfully issued replacement bonds in the first quarter [15]. - Guangzhou encouraged state - owned enterprises to increase investment and asset revitalization [16]. - The US was promoting trade negotiations with multiple countries [17]. - Japan might adjust its bond issuance plan [17]. - The UK was reducing its reliance on long - term government bonds [17]. - Some bond events, such as payment uncertainties and debt restructurings, occurred [18]. - Credit ratings of some entities were confirmed [18]. Bond Market Summary - The bond market weakened, with treasury bond futures falling and yields rising [19]. - Some exchange - traded bonds rose or fell, and convertible bond indices declined [20]. - Money market interest rates mostly decreased [21]. - The yields of some financial bonds were determined through bidding [22]. - European and US bond yields generally declined [22][23]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index rose [24]. Research Report Highlights - Some institutions recommended investment strategies, such as a dumbbell - shaped strategy and focusing on certain credit bonds [25]. - Different types of real - estate enterprises were analyzed, and the credit bond supply - demand relationship was expected to remain positive [25][26]. - The government's support for state - owned banks was expected to improve their asset quality [26]. - Industrial enterprise profits were expected to continue to recover, but risks needed attention [27]. Today's Reminders - On May 28, 223 bonds were listed, 104 were issued, 131 were paid, and 165 had principal and interest payments [28]. 4. Stock Market News - The A - share market was volatile, with new - consumption concept stocks rising and robot and computing - power stocks falling [29]. - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with some consumer stocks hitting new highs [29]. - China Chengtong planned to complete key tasks and showed confidence in the capital market [30]. - A large number of A - share listed companies disclosed repurchase and share - increase loan matters [30]. - Kuaishou's Q1 revenue and profit increased, and its user base reached a new high [30]. - MIXUE's stock price reached a new high, surpassing some liquor companies [31]. - Zhihu achieved profitability for two consecutive quarters [31].

可灵的下一步：优先保证模型效果、聚焦专业生产者做渗透。 文 丨 高洪浩 《晚点 LatePost》独家了解到，快手在今日成立了可灵 AI 事业部。该事业部下设可灵 AI 产品 部、运营部和技术部，负责可灵、可图等系列大模型业务，快手高级副总裁盖坤担任可灵 AI 事业部负责人，继续兼任社区科学线负责人。 与此同时，社区科学线下成立基础大模型与应用部，负责 LLM 大模型、多模态理解大模型以 及应用技术研发。 调整后， 可灵 AI 将作为与主站、商业化、电商、国际化、本地生活并列的一级业务部门，向 快手董事长兼 CEO 程一笑汇报。这也是近 3 年时间里，快手唯一成立的独立事业部。 可灵与可图分别是快手自研的视频生成大模型与图片生成大模型。2025 年 3 月 25 日的快手财报电话 会上，快手 CEO 程一笑称，目前可灵 AI"图生视频" 功能的综合效果处于全球第一。 根据官方数据，自商业化以来至今年 2 月，可灵 AI 累计营业收入已超过 1 亿元。我们了解到，可灵 AI 今年前三个月的营收，已超过 2024 年下半年的总和。 一位快手人士称，AI 一直是快手的公司级战略，此次组织升级，意味着可灵 AI 在快 ...