| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月谨慎看 ...

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月谨慎看 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 16 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 逢高减仓，低位企稳后回补 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强官网 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass for shorting on rallies [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish on lows; aluminum for increased observation; nickel for waiting or shorting on rallies; tin for range trading; gold for range trading; silver for holding long positions and cautious new positions; lithium carbonate for strong - side oscillation [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC for range trading; caustic soda for temporary waiting; soda ash for temporary waiting; styrene for range trading; rubber for range trading; urea for range trading; methanol for range trading; polyolefins for weak - side oscillation [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn for strong - side oscillation; PTA for upward oscillation; apples for strong - side oscillation; red dates for weak - side oscillation [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs for a strategy of shorting on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness for far - term contracts; eggs for limited upside; corn for cautious chasing of highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; soybean meal for range operation; oils for gradually taking profit on previously established short positions [1]. Core Views - The market is influenced by a variety of factors, including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different sectors and varieties have different trends and investment strategies due to their unique fundamentals [1][6][8]. - Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, such as oversupply in soda ash and strong supply pressure in the pig market, while others benefit from factors like improving demand or supply disruptions, like the potential support for tin prices from supply tightness [18][34]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium - to long - term bullish, with short - term possible sideways movement. Influenced by factors such as potential Fed chair appointments, Chinese economic data, and policy responses to the central economic work conference [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade sideways. Driven by factors like central bank policies, regulatory changes, and the need for year - end configuration [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal supports [8]. - **Rebar**: Range trading is advised. With low valuations and weak drivers, prices may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Glass**: Shorting on rallies is suggested. High inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases lead to a bearish outlook [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation is expected. Macro - easing expectations and long - term supply shortages support prices, but short - term over - rise has curbed consumption and increased adjustment risks [11][12]. - **Aluminum**: A rebound is possible, but increased observation is recommended. Factors include changes in bauxite prices, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities, and demand in the off - season [13]. - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. Long - term supply surplus exists, but new RKAB policies bring uncertainties [16]. - **Tin**: Range trading is recommended. Supply is tight, and downstream consumption is weak, but prices are expected to be supported [18]. - **Silver**: Sideways movement. Fed policies, economic data, and industrial demand support prices, with a strategy of holding long positions and cautious new positions [18]. - **Gold**: Range trading is advised. Fed policies and economic uncertainties lead to a bullish medium - term outlook [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Strong - side oscillation. Supply is affected by mine situations, and demand is strong, with attention needed on mine developments [20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Low - level oscillation. Weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth lead to a weak outlook, but low valuations and potential policy supports exist [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cautiously bearish, with temporary waiting. High inventory, weak demand from downstream alumina, and potential production changes are factors [23]. - **Styrene**: Sideways movement. Overseas blending logic has limited impact on the weak fundamentals, with attention on price changes [24]. - **Rubber**: Sideways movement. Uncertain supply - demand, high inventory, and weak downstream demand lead to a range - bound market [24][25]. - **Urea**: Sideways movement. Supply increases, and demand is a mix of weakening agricultural demand and strengthening industrial demand, with inventory changes affecting prices [26][27]. - **Methanol**: Sideways movement. Supply is stable, demand from methanol - to - olefins is mixed, and traditional demand is weak, with inventory decreases [27]. - **Polyolefins**: Weak - side oscillation. Supply is strong, demand is weak, especially for PE agricultural film, but inventory reduction provides some support [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Temporary waiting. Supply surplus is the main pressure, but cost support and potential supply contractions are factors [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - side oscillation. Global supply - demand is relatively loose, but domestic sales and yarn prices support the market [31]. - **PTA**: Upward oscillation. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, and PTA supply - demand is in a de - stocking phase [31][33]. - **Apples**: Strong - side oscillation. Market trading is general, with prices in different regions showing certain ranges [33]. - **Red Dates**: Weak - side oscillation. Acquisition progress is in the late stage, and enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is general [33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Sideways bottom - building. Short - term supply pressure exists, and long - term prices are affected by capacity reduction and cost changes, with different strategies for near - and far - term contracts [34]. - **Eggs**: Limited upside. Short - term spot and futures are range - bound, medium - term supply - demand improves marginally, and long - term supply pressure remains [35][36][37]. - **Corn**: Rebound. Short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and long - term demand gradually recovers, but supply - demand is relatively loose [37]. - **Soybean Meal**: Range oscillation. Near - term contracts are strong due to supply delays and de - stocking, while far - term contracts are weak due to South American production expectations [38]. - **Oils**: Soybean and palm oils for weak - side oscillation, rapeseed oil for limited rebound. Different supply - demand situations and external factors lead to different trends [38][42].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 04 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议反弹至高位多单减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are favored in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be observed without chasing high prices [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is suitable for short - term range trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels after a rebound; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][14]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1][19][21]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is for range - bound trading; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; jujubes are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1][27][29]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs in the near - term are in a weak adjustment at low levels, and caution is advised when chasing high prices in the far - term; eggs' price increase is restricted; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range trading; oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][31][35]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes each product's situation in detail, including factors such as production, consumption, inventory, and policy, and offers corresponding investment strategies [1]. Summaries by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the external environment improved. However, the market's main line rotates quickly, so index futures may trade sideways. In the medium to long term, they are favored, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After continuous callbacks, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year active bonds have basically retreated to the level before the announcement of treasury bond trading operations. The market may focus on the actual scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations at the end of the month. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal mine market is in a continuous price - cut trend, with weak demand. Market participants are generally in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended for range trading [8]. - **Rebar**: The futures price of rebar strengthened last Friday. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period. The supply and demand contradiction is not significant, and the price increase and decrease drivers are both weak. It is recommended for range trading [8]. - **Glass**: The suspension of production rumors caused the futures price to rebound, but the social inventory pressure of glass is huge, and the demand is gradually weakening at the end of the year. It is not advisable to chase high prices for the near - term contract, and it is necessary to wait for the peak - forming signal [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is complex and severe. The market consumption has shown a good momentum recently, and the social inventory has decreased. The long - term demand for copper is still optimistic, but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the pressure brought by changes in the Fed's policy expectations. It is recommended for short - term range trading [11]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. The supply of imported ore is expected to increase in December, and the price may be under pressure. The demand is gradually entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels after a rebound [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, and the supply of nickel ore may be relatively loose. The refined nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel iron has limited upward space. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies moderately [15]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production increased in October, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand [15]. - **Silver and Gold**: Fed officials' dovish speeches have increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices have rebounded. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver and be cautious about new positions, and to conduct range trading in gold [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the mining license in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde lithium mine. It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is in a low - profit state, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export support may weaken. The overall supply and demand is still weak, but it has a low valuation. It is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The alumina end has high production and high inventory, compressing profits. The supply of caustic soda is high in winter. It is recommended to wait and watch [21]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is stable, and the upstream has a strong mentality of holding prices. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [27]. - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is mainly in a sideways trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [21]. - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase in the peak - season, and the terminal demand improvement is weak. However, there may be speculation about the shortage of delivery products. It is recommended for range trading [22]. - **Urea**: The daily output has increased, the agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has increased. The inventory is in a state of high production and high inventory. It is expected to be in a sideways trend [23]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply has recovered, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased slightly, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to be in a sideways trend [24]. - **Polyolefins**: The inventory has continued to decline, mainly due to downstream replenishment at low prices. The demand is in a state where the peak season has ended, and the upward pressure is large. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand data is relatively loose, but the recent strong yarn price has driven the rebound of cotton. It is expected to trade sideways [27]. - **PTA**: The international oil price has fallen, and the PTA price is in a low - level sideways trend. The supply and demand is in a state of inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 4500 - 4800 [27]. - **Apples**: The trading of late - Fuji apples on the ground and in storage is coming to an end. The price is expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend [29]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is about 40% - 50%, and the enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average. The price is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [29]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure still exists, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the medium to long term, the production capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and be cautious about bullish in the far - term [32]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures price trades in a range. In the medium term, the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved. In the long term, the production capacity clearance still takes time. It is necessary to pay attention to external factors [34]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the market supply slowdown supports the spot price rebound, but the terminal demand recovery is limited. In the medium to long term, the cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [34]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean price is supported at 1120 cents, and the domestic supply from November to January is abundant. It is mainly for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points for the November - January basis [35]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the three major oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to potential positive factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data [40].

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass is expected to continue weakening [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, and silver recommend range trading; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][9][14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; caustic soda and soda ash recommend waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][16][18]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA suggests range - bound trading; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][25][27]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests waiting for a rebound to hedge at high prices; soybean meal suggests range trading; oils and fats suggest buying on dips after a rebound [1][30][34]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It provides trading suggestions based on current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each sector. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as rising US inflation, weak retail sales, and high - valuation risks in Europe, the market rotation is fast, and index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news" because of the narrow interest - rate fluctuation range, which reduces the attractiveness to institutional investors. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Most mines are reducing prices, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to trade within a range [6]. - **Rebar**: With unclear prospects for the Fed's December interest - rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand have both declined this week. Steel mills' profits are low, and production cuts may increase. Rebar is expected to trade within a range at low levels [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and glass prices are expected to continue weakening [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Concerns about supply from Congo (Kinshasa) and the restart of production in Indonesia's Grasberg mine are factors. Consumption has improved, and social inventories have decreased. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with a trading range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan, and it is recommended to trade within the range [9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is expected to decline, and alumina production capacity is increasing. Aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [9][10]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may increase supply uncertainty. Nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Domestic production and imports have changed, and the semiconductor industry is recovering. Supply is expected to improve, and tin prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, both are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be supported in the medium term [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is affected by mine production, and demand is strong. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth. PVC is expected to trade with a bearish bias, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to wait and watch [18]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited by factors such as pure - benzene supply and demand and port inventory. It is expected to trade sideways [18]. - **Rubber**: Entering the off - season of production, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. Rubber prices are expected to trade within a range [20]. - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, demand from agriculture is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea is expected to trade sideways [21]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand from the olefin industry is stable, and traditional demand is weak. Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways [23]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure has eased, demand is improving slightly, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw - material prices [24]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to decrease, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are firm, and they are expected to trade sideways [27]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade within a range at low levels [27]. - **Apples**: Warehouse trading is stable, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [28]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition progress varies by region, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias [29]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Short - term supply pressure remains, demand growth is limited, and long - term capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. Near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies [30][32]. - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are improving marginally, long - term capacity reduction takes time, and price increases are limited [32][33]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, long - term supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices after a rebound [34]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by import policies and weather, it is recommended to trade within a range [35]. - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term prices are rebounding, but there are still many limiting factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to palm - oil data [35][40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and coke, and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is expected to continue weakening [1][6][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, silver, and lithium carbonate are recommended for range trading; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [1][9][11][14] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are recommended for range trading; Caustic soda and soda ash are recommended to wait and see; Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly [1][18][20][21] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade in a range; Apples are expected to be bullish in a sideways market; Jujubes are expected to be bearish in a sideways market [1][29][31] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be chased with caution; Eggs are expected to trade in a range; Corn is recommended to hedge on rallies; Soybean meal is recommended for range trading; Oils are expected to trade weakly in the short - term [1][32][33][34] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market analysis of different industries, including macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also points out that market trends are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns [5][6][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as US inflation, retail sales, and European Central Bank warnings, the main market trends rotate quickly, and index futures may trade sideways in the short - term but are long - term bullish [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positives and sensitive to negatives", with narrow interest rate fluctuations and low odds, resulting in reduced attractiveness for allocation. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mine market is in a continuous price - cutting trend, with weak demand and a strong bearish sentiment. Market participants are mostly waiting and seeing, and it is recommended for range trading [6][7] - **Rebar**: With an unclear outlook for the Fed's December rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand increased last week, but future demand may decline. Steel prices are expected to trade sideways at low levels due to low valuations and weak drivers [7] - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Glass prices are expected to continue weakening [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Geopolitical factors in Congo (Kinshasa) bring uncertainties, but market consumption is improving, and social inventory is decreasing. Copper prices are expected to trade in a high - level range in the short - term, with long - term bullish potential [9] - **Aluminum**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed slightly. Demand is entering the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [10] - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may affect supply, and the market is in a state of over - supply. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14] - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and supply is expected to improve. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be supported, and it is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by US economic data and Fed rate - cut expectations, prices are in an adjustment phase. They are expected to be supported in the medium - term and continue to trade sideways in the short - term [15][16][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is in a tight balance, and demand is strong. Prices are expected to continue a strong sideways trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to mine production and permits [18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to trade weakly in a sideways market, but attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, caustic soda's valuation is suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see [20] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short - term. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to pure benzene prices and crude oil [21][22] - **Rubber**: Domestic production areas are entering the off - season, and overseas floods have affected supply. However, inventory has increased significantly, and prices are expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: Supply has increased, agricultural demand is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea prices are expected to trade sideways under high production and inventory [24][25] - **Methanol**: Supply has recovered, demand from the olefin industry has increased slightly, and traditional demand is weak. Inventory has decreased at ports, and prices are expected to stabilize [25] - **Polyolefins**: With weakening supply pressure, some improvement in demand, and compressed production profits, PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [26][27] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is weak. With cost support, it is recommended to wait and see [28][29] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are strong, and cotton prices are expected to trade sideways [29] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, PTA prices are expected to trade in a low - level range [29] - **Apples**: Ground and warehouse trading is coming to an end, and prices are expected to be bullish in a sideways market [31] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is uneven, and prices are expected to be bearish in a sideways market [31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, supply pressure remains, and demand growth is limited. In the long - term, capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and be cautious about long - term rallies [32] - **Eggs**: Supply is relatively abundant, but short - term supply pressure has eased, and prices are expected to trade in a range with limited upside [33] - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure has eased, and prices may rebound, but long - term supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [34] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to trade narrowly, and domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term. It is recommended for range trading [36] - **Oils**: In the short - term, palm oil production growth has slowed, but export data is poor, and there are many negative factors. Oils are expected to trade in a low - level range. In the long - term, they are expected to trade in a wide range [37][41]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Sell call options [1][8] - Copper: Exit long positions at high levels or range short - term trading [1][11] - Aluminum: Buy on dips [1] - Nickel: Wait and see or short on rallies [1][16] - Tin: Range trading [1][18] - Gold: Range trading [1][20] - Silver: Range trading [1][18] - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 4700 level for 01 contract [21][22] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 2400 level for 01 contract [23][24] - Benzene ethylene: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 6500 level [24][26] - Rubber: Range - bound, focus on the 15000 level as support [26] - Urea: Range - bound, 01 contract range 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - Methanol: Range - bound, 01 contract range 2030 - 2250 [29] - Polyolefins: PE to range - bound and focus on 6800 support, PP to range - bound weakly and focus on 6500 support [31] - Soda ash: Short - selling for 01 contract [31][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [34] - PTA: Low - level range - bound, range 4400 - 4700 [34][35] - Apples: Range - bound with a strong bias [35] - Red dates: Range - bound with a weak bias [36][37] - Live pigs: Rebound under pressure [38][39] - Eggs: Limited upside [40][41] - Corn: Bottom - building in range [42][43] - Soybean meal: Range - bound [44][45] - Oils and fats: Bottom - building and rebounding, buy cautiously for 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [45][51] Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external influences [5][7][10] - For most varieties, the short - term market is in a state of range - bound or with a certain bias, and investors need to pay attention to key price levels, supply - demand changes, and policy signals [21][23][26] - Some varieties are expected to have long - term positive trends, but short - term fluctuations and uncertainties still exist, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to market conditions [5][11][40] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index futures may range - bound in the short - term due to market hot - spot rotation and unclear main lines, but are long - term optimistic. The end of the US government shutdown, changes in China's social financing and loan data, and market regulatory policies are influencing factors [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to range - bound. The third - quarter monetary policy report shows a stable and moderately loose tone, and the follow - up interest - rate cut space is affected by the relationship between various interest rates [5] Black building materials - Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading. The coking coal market has weak demand and falling prices, while rebar has low valuation and limited downward space despite production and demand declines [1][7] - Glass is advised to sell call options. With production cuts, weak demand, high inventory, and no strong short - to - medium - term positive expectations, the market is bearish [8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper is in high - level range - bound. Although there are long - term positive factors such as supply tightening and increasing demand, short - term price increases suppress downstream demand, and inventory accumulation may lead to price adjustments [10][11] - Aluminum is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply and demand of aluminum and its upstream materials are complex, and the market is trading the expectation of overseas supply reduction, but there are risks of over - trading [10][12] - Nickel is suggested to wait and see or short on rallies. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings supply uncertainty, and the long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is for range trading. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, while downstream consumption is weak, and the price is supported by inventory levels [18] - Gold and silver are for range trading. Affected by the US government shutdown, employment data, and interest - rate cut expectations, the prices are in a short - term adjustment state but have medium - term support [18][20] Energy and chemicals - PVC, caustic soda, and benzene ethylene are expected to range - bound with a weak bias. They are affected by factors such as high supply, weak demand, cost fluctuations, and macro - policies [21][23][26] - Rubber is range - bound. Cold weather in Yunnan and the rainy season in southern Thailand support raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory is seasonally increasing [26] - Urea and methanol are range - bound. Urea production increases, and demand and inventory changes affect the price; methanol shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with inventory accumulation [28][29] - Polyolefins are expected to be range - bound with a weak bias. Supply pressure increases, demand improvement is limited, and cost support weakens [31] - Soda ash is recommended for short - selling for the 01 contract. Supply exceeds demand, and although cost increases, supply pressure remains high [31][33] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to range - bound. Global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price is affected by factors such as the progress of seed - cotton acquisition and Sino - US trade negotiations [34] - PTA is in low - level range - bound. Oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and weak fundamentals lead to inventory accumulation and price suppression [34][35] - Apples are range - bound with a strong bias. With the end of ground trading and the start of出库, the decrease in production and quality supports the price [35] - Red dates are range - bound with a weak bias. The purchase enthusiasm of merchants is low, and the price shows a slight decline [36][37] Agricultural and livestock - Live pigs: The short - term price is in narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to - long - term supply before the first half of next year remains high, with prices under pressure. Different contracts have different investment strategies [38][39][40] - Eggs: The short - term supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. The 12 - contract can be shorted on rallies, and the 01 - contract is range - bound [40][41] - Corn: The short - term price rebounds under pressure, and the medium - to - long - term has cost support but limited upside space. The 01 - contract can be hedged on rallies, and 3 - 5 positive spreads can be concerned [42][43] - Soybean meal: It is in range - bound. The US soybean market is affected by reports and Brazilian planting progress, and domestic prices are affected by supply and demand and policy expectations [44][45] - Oils and fats: They are expected to bottom - build and rebound. Different oils have different supply and demand situations, and short - term long - buying and certain spread - trading strategies are recommended [45][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are rated as bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - trading; glass is advised to sell call options [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high levels or engage in short - term range trading; aluminum is suggested to buy on dips; nickel is advised to wait and see or short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - trading [1][11][17][19]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash's 01 contract is recommended with a short - selling strategy [1][22][24][26][28][30][32][33][35]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade at a low level; apples are expected to trade weakly; jujubes are expected to decline [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are expected to face resistance in rebounds; eggs are restricted in upward movement; corn is expected to bottom out; soybean meal is expected to trade within a range; oils are expected to bottom out and rebound [1][41][43][46][48][49]. Core Views - The global risk appetite is strengthening, and domestic favorable policies are introduced, which may boost the domestic market sentiment, and the index futures may run with a bullish bias. The bond market lacks a clear core logic, and the follow - up trend depends on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions [5]. - The coal market shows a pattern of tight supply and demand and rising prices. The steel market has low static valuations, but the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally. The glass market has a high inventory and weak demand, and there is a risk of further weakening [7][8][10]. - The copper market has a tight supply of concentrates, but the short - term supply - demand situation has limited support for copper prices. The aluminum market has a complex supply - demand situation, and there is a risk of over - trading. The nickel market has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term [11][12][17]. - The PVC, caustic soda, and styrene markets have weak fundamentals, and the prices are expected to trade weakly. The rubber market lacks a clear driving force and is expected to trade within a range [22][23][26][27][29]. - The PTA market has a situation of inventory accumulation and low - level trading. The apple and jujube markets have weak demand and are expected to trade weakly [38][39][39]. - The pig market has a large supply in the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. The egg market has sufficient supply, and the price increase is restricted. The corn market is expected to bottom out, and the soybean meal market is expected to trade within a range. The oil market is expected to bottom out and rebound [41][43][46][48][49]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: They are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term. The end of the US government shutdown and domestic favorable policies may boost the market sentiment, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. The bond market lacks a clear core logic, and the follow - up trend depends on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand, and the price is rising. It is recommended for range - trading [7][8]. - **Rebar**: The steel market has low static valuations, but the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally. It is recommended to buy on short - term declines [8]. - **Glass**: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to sell call options [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, but the short - term supply - demand situation has limited support for copper prices. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels or engage in short - term range trading [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply - demand situation is complex, and there is a risk of over - trading. It is recommended to strengthen observation [12]. - **Nickel**: There is an oversupply situation in the medium to long term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for range - trading [18][19]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic situation and interest - rate expectations, they are expected to trade within a range [19][20][21]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The fundamentals are weak, with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. It is expected to trade weakly [22][23]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by the alumina market, the price is expected to trade weakly [24][26]. - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is complex, and the price is expected to trade weakly [26][27]. - **Rubber**: It lacks a clear driving force and is expected to trade within a range [28][29]. - **Urea**: The supply has increased, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade within a range [30][31]. - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to trade within a range [32][33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. The PE is expected to trade within a range, and the PP is expected to trade weakly [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, and the 01 contract is recommended with a short - selling strategy [35][36][37]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand and trade negotiations, they are expected to trade sideways [38]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation leads to inventory accumulation, and the price is expected to trade at a low level [38][39]. - **Apples**: The ground trading is coming to an end, and the demand in the sales area is weak. It is expected to trade weakly [39]. - **Jujubes**: The purchase enthusiasm is low, and the price is expected to decline [39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is large in the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the price increase is restricted. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and trade within a range for the 01 - contract [43][44][45]. - **Corn**: The new grain supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is expected to bottom out, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 positive arbitrage [46][48]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the domestic market is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the basis pricing [48][49]. - **Oils**: The three major oils are expected to bottom out and rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [49][50][55].