9月1日，广州商品交易所有限公司在现货大厅正式上线陈皮交易品种。 9月5日消息，中国-东盟海产品交易所首笔对虾订单集采供应链金融产品正式落地。 9月22日，中国棉花棉纱交易中心棉花棉纱现货交易平台在乌鲁木齐正式上线运行。 9月23日，"湖南省国际低碳技术交易中心揭牌仪式暨项目签约活动"在湖南湘江新区麓谷科创园举行。 据湖南省相关监管部门披露,该交易中心属于湖南省内保留的10家交易场所之一。 9月26日，浙江国际大宗商品交易中心推动全国首单绿色电力证书数字人民币结算成功落地，并正式启 动数字人民币交易系统建设。 9月29日，湖北省地方金融管理局发布《湖北省地方交易场所监督管理办法（征求意见稿）》，向社会 公开征集意见，反馈截止日期为2025年10月29日。 9月30日，中晟国金（大庆）能源科技有限公司在重庆石油天然气交易中心成功开展三场液化天然气 （LNG）商品预售交易，覆盖2025年11月、12月以及2026年1月三个月份，预售总量330吨，全部成 交。 9月16日，《期货日报》社有限公司"期市纵览"数据产品在郑州数据交易中心挂牌登记。 9月17日，香港特区行政长官李家超表示，香港将与大湾区内交易所合作开拓大 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 10 月 09 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 逢低买入 | | ◆黄金： | 逢低买入 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, buy on dips for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Wait - and - see or buy on dips for copper, suggest buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum, suggest waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][12][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting 01 and going long on 05 for soda ash [1][23][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate, PTA is expected to oscillate weakly, apples are expected to oscillate strongly, and jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][36][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs, wide - range oscillation for corn, range oscillation for soybean meal, and oscillation with an upward bias for oils [1][39][46][53] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, macro - economic conditions, policy changes, and seasonal factors. Overall, the market for different futures products shows a complex situation with both opportunities and risks, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product characteristics and market trends [1][5][8] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish on the medium to long - term, buy on dips. Affected by pre - holiday capital demands, A - shares fluctuated widely. The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showed slight declines, while the ChiNext Index rose. Pay attention to whether the micro - cap stock index can regain stability on the 20 - day line [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. The bond market had a slight pullback. Open - market operations affected liquidity expectations, and the future trend of treasury bond futures needs further observation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating. Multiple factors drove up market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board, including pit - mouth, port, and purchased coal prices [8] - **Rebar**: Oscillating. The futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The market sentiment weakened slightly, and the short - term focus is on the demand in October [8] - **Glass**: Buy on dips. The fundamentals of glass are stable. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has a certain degree of support. The market is speculating on supply - side shutdown expectations and seasonal and macro - economic factors [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. The price of copper fluctuated after a rapid rise. The high price suppressed demand, and the market is affected by factors such as Fed's interest - rate policy, domestic economic data, and seasonal consumption [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Neutral. The price of aluminum showed a neutral trend. The price of bauxite decreased slightly, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. The demand entered the peak season, and it is recommended to buy on dips [13] - **Nickel**: Neutral. The fundamentals of nickel changed little in the short - term, affected by macro and mine - end news. In the long - term, the supply is in surplus. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [18] - **Tin**: Neutral. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is picking up. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18][19] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, precious metals showed a strong - side oscillation. Affected by US economic data and trade negotiations, it is recommended to conduct range trading [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Oscillating. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [23] - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. The upstream inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand is expected to increase marginally. It is expected to oscillate before the National Day [26] - **Styrene**: Oscillating. The cost is affected by oil prices and pure - benzene supply, and the demand is limited during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [27] - **Rubber**: Oscillating. Affected by typhoons and weak overseas buying, the raw - material price has limited upward momentum. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the price is expected to decline [29][30] - **Urea**: Oscillating. The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the compound - fertilizer market has slightly improved. The inventory has been accumulating, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the 01 contract [30] - **Methanol**: Oscillating. The supply in the mainland has recovered, the traditional demand is stable, and the demand from methanol - to - olefins has declined. The port inventory is at a high level, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [31] - **Polyolefins**: Oscillating. The downstream demand has improved during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory has been decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [32] - **Soda Ash**: Short 01 and go long on 05 for arbitrage. The downstream pre - holiday replenishment is active, but the production has increased. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to conduct the arbitrage strategy [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillating. The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, but the new - cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [36] - **PTA**: Oscillating weakly. Affected by concerns about OPEC+ production increases, the oil price has declined. The supply and demand are in a state of accumulation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36][37] - **Apples**: Oscillating strongly. Affected by weather conditions, the price of early - maturing apples is firm, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [37] - **Jujubes**: Oscillating weakly. The consumption is weak, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high level, with an expected weak - side oscillation [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Under pressure. Affected by factors such as supply increases and policy support, the short - term price may have a limited rebound, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of long 05 and short 03 [39][40] - **Eggs**: Resistance to rebound. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve significantly, and the demand is gradually weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts in the short - term [42] - **Corn**: Range - oscillating. The new - crop supply will ease the tight supply of old - crop corn. It is recommended to take a short - side approach for the 11 contract and pay attention to the new - crop listing rhythm [45] - **Soybean Meal**: Weakly oscillating. Affected by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs, the price is under pressure in the short - term, but there is cost support. The domestic supply is abundant from September to October, and the price is expected to be weak [46][48] - **Oils**: Adjusting. Affected by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs, the oil price has回调. However, there is still support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [53]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; bullish on glass, suggesting buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, suggesting waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pull - back; neutral on nickel, suggesting waiting or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, suggesting range trading; suggesting a short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy for soda ash [1][22][25][27][30][33][34][37] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting range trading; neutral on PTA, suggesting range trading; bullish on apples, suggesting a range - bound and upward - biased trend; bearish on jujubes, suggesting a range - bound and downward - biased trend [1][38][39][40][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting shorting on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting range trading; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting range trading; bullish on oils, suggesting a high - level range - bound trend with a buying - on - dips strategy [1][42][44][47][49][50] Core Views - The global economic and policy environment, including factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, trade policies, and domestic macro - policies, have a significant impact on various futures markets [11][13][18][22][25][37][43][44][47][50][53][54][55] - Seasonal factors, supply - and - demand fundamentals, and cost factors are important considerations for investment decisions in different futures markets [8][10][11][13][18][22][25][31][39][40][43][44][47][49][50][51][52][53][54][55] - Different futures varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific market conditions, such as range trading, buying on dips, shorting on rallies, and arbitrage strategies [1][5][7][8][9][11][13][15][16][18][19][21][22][24][26][28][30][33][34][36][38][39][40][42][44][46][48][50][55] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share markets experienced a pull - back after a rally on Friday. Policy support is positive, and it is recommended to rebalance in high - probability areas. Medium - to long - term outlook is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market is gradually recovering from previous adjustments, but investors remain cautious. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Pit - mouth coal price increases have slowed, and the market is in a stalemate. A range - trading strategy is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded on Friday. The fundamental supply - and - demand situation is weak in the short term, but traditional demand seasons may bring opportunities. A range - trading strategy is recommended with a focus on support levels [8] - **Glass**: Supply and demand conditions have improved. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and potential positive factors, a buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are rising in a range. With weakening of the US dollar and potential consumption recovery, prices are expected to remain strong. A range - trading or buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is supported, and the production of aluminum is stable. Demand is entering the peak season, and a buying - on - dips strategy or an arbitrage strategy is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: Supply concerns and macro - factors affect prices. In the short term, prices are affected by the macro - environment, and in the long term, supply is in surplus. A shorting - on - rallies strategy is recommended [18] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to be supported. A range - trading strategy is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: Due to weakening US economic data and expectations of interest - rate cuts, prices are expected to have support. A range - trading strategy is recommended [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Supply is high, demand is mediocre, and exports face challenges. Prices are expected to be range - bound, and key factors such as macro - data and exports should be monitored [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by factors such as spot prices and demand. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and downstream stocking and export conditions should be monitored [25] - **Styrene**: Cost and demand factors influence prices. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as oil prices and supply - and - demand fundamentals should be monitored [27] - **Rubber**: Overseas raw material prices are falling, and market sentiment is bearish. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and support levels should be monitored [29] - **Urea**: Supply and demand are weak, and inventories are increasing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be monitored [30][31][33] - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Key factors such as coal prices and downstream demand should be monitored [33] - **Polyolefins**: The "Golden September and Silver October" season may boost demand, but supply and cost factors limit price increases. A range - trading strategy is recommended [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a tug - of - war between expectations and reality. A short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy is recommended [37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - and - demand conditions are improving, but new - crop production may bring downward pressure. Hedging preparations are recommended [38] - **PTA**: Recent inventory reduction is good, but long - term supply increases and weak oil prices may lead to price drops. A range - trading strategy is recommended [39][40] - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are priced higher than last year, and the market is expected to be range - bound and upward - biased [40] - **Jujubes**: Consumption is weak, and prices are under pressure. A range - bound and downward - biased trend is expected [41] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large in the short term, and prices are under pressure. Policy support may bring some rebounds. A short - selling strategy with stop - profit and potential arbitrage opportunities is recommended [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as cold - storage egg releases and chicken culling [44] - **Corn**: New - crop supply and cost factors affect prices. A range - trading strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended, and factors such as weather and policies should be monitored [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to be stable, and domestic supply - and - demand conditions are changing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and key factors such as US - China trade relations should be monitored [48][49][50] - **Oils**: Short - term prices are affected by various factors, but support levels exist. A buying - on - dips strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended [50][51][52][53][54][55]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 09 月 12 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 观望或逢低持多，短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 空 01 多 05 套利 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to hold off [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to buy on dips [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions moderately at low levels; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after pull - backs; Nickel is recommended to hold off or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][11][16][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; Caustic soda and urea are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage; Styrene is expected to oscillate weakly; Rubber is expected to oscillate strongly; Methanol and polyolefins are expected to oscillate widely [1][21][24][27][30][32][33]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to oscillate; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly [1][37][38][39]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Hogs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies; Corn is for range trading; Soybean meal's upside is limited; Oils are expected to adjust at high levels [1][42][44][45][47][49]. Core Views - The A - share market is expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation in the medium - to - long - term, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" and policy reforms likely to release positive effects. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the support level of the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. - In the black building materials sector, the supply and demand of coking coal and rebar are complex, and glass demand may pick up in the short - term [7][8][9]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro factors and supply - demand relationships. Copper and aluminum may have upward potential due to demand growth, while nickel may be under pressure [11][12][16]. - Energy chemicals are facing challenges in supply - demand balance, with PVC and styrene under pressure, and rubber showing strength [21][27]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, the supply - demand situation of cotton and PTA is complex, and apples may perform strongly [37][38]. - Agricultural and livestock products are influenced by supply - demand and seasonal factors. Hogs and eggs are under pressure, while oils may adjust at high levels [42][44][49]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the A - share market was volatile and differentiated. The market trading activity remained high, and it is expected to oscillate upwards in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the Shanghai Composite Index's 20 - day moving average, and long positions in IH and IF with performance certainty and high dividends can be considered on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, both the equity and bond markets had increased volatility. The bond market's yield accelerated downward after the equity market reached a short - term inflection point. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold off and pay attention to the trading volume and intraday volatility of the equity market [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Safety supervision has tightened, and the coal market is in a stalemate. Port prices are falling, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 1030 - 1230 for coking coal [7][8]. - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, rebar futures prices oscillated weakly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with an increase in production and inventory. It is expected to fall first and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended in the range of 3000 - 3300 for RB2601 [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased in some regions due to increased downstream replenishment. Demand has improved at the end of the month, and it is recommended to buy on dips, with attention paid to the support level of 1110 - 1120 for the 01 contract [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: This week, copper prices were mainly affected by macro factors, oscillating in a high - level range. Supply has increased, and demand is resilient. It is recommended to hold long positions moderately at low levels, with a short - term operating range of 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Alumina production capacity has decreased slightly, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased. Demand is picking up in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips or engage in long AD and short AL arbitrage [12]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel iron and stainless steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [16][17]. - **Tin**: Domestic refined tin production has increased, and tin concentrate imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by Trump's influence on the Fed's independence and Powell's dovish speech, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased. Precious metals prices have rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections, with reference ranges of 775 - 820 for the SHFE gold 10 contract and 9000 - 9800 for the SHFE silver 10 contract [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: PVC is facing high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. Supply pressure is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 5000 - level pressure for the 01 contract [21][23]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by warehouse receipts and short - term spot price peaks, the futures price has fallen. Supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with attention paid to the 2650 - level support for the 01 contract [24][26]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil prices are under pressure, and the supply - demand of pure benzene is deteriorating. Styrene inventory is abundant, and demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention paid to the 7200 - level pressure [26][27]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, and inventory is decreasing. The market price is stable and strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 15600 - level support [27][29]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, and demand is weak. Inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short - term, with attention paid to the 1680 - 1720 support [30][31]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has increased, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is expected to rise. Inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate [32][33]. - **Polyolefins**: The traditional consumption peak season is coming, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Polyethylene supply pressure has eased, while polypropylene production is increasing. It is expected to have support at the bottom, with L2601 focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and PP2601 on the 6900 - 7200 range [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is sluggish, and supply is expected to remain high. Demand from photovoltaic glass is improving, while float glass sales are weakening. It is recommended to conduct short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [34][36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has improved. However, the increase in new cotton production may put pressure on prices. Hedging preparations are recommended [37]. - **PTA**: PTA inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility that OPEC will suspend production increases in September. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 4900 - level pressure [38]. - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the price is higher than last year. The inventory apple market is stable. The price is expected to remain strong [38]. - **Red Dates**: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The market price is stable, but consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [39][41]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: The pig price is under pressure due to large supply. The 01 contract may be supported by the peak - season expectation, while the 03 and 05 contracts are weaker. Short positions can be considered on rallies, and long 05 and short 03 arbitrage can be paid attention to [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may rebound slightly, but the supply is sufficient. The near - month contracts may fall to correct the premium. Short positions can be considered on rallies for the 10 and 11 contracts, and long - term contracts can be observed [44]. - **Corn**: It is the period of new and old crop connection, and supply is sufficient. The 11 - contract valuation should not be overly bearish. Short positions can be considered on rallies, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be paid attention to [45][46]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic arrival of soybeans is abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure from state reserves sales. However, cost support limits the downside. Attention should be paid to the 3030 support of the M2601 contract [47][49]. - **Oils**: Short - term support levels for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts are 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively. Long positions can be considered after the correction [49][54].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Moderately hold long positions in copper at low levels, go long on aluminum at low prices after a pullback, hold a wait - and - see attitude or go short on nickel at high prices, conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][12][13][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC shows a weak oscillation, caustic soda and styrene oscillate, conduct an arbitrage of shorting 01 and going long on 05 for soda ash, rubber, urea, and methanol oscillate, and polyolefins show a wide - range oscillation [1][21][23][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn oscillate, apples show a strong - biased oscillation, and jujubes oscillate [1][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on hogs and eggs at high prices, corn shows a wide - range oscillation, soybean meal shows a range oscillation, and oils show a strong - biased oscillation [1][38][40][42] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products in different industries. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic conditions, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and seasonal effects. For example, in the macro - finance sector, it considers the impact of central bank policies on stock indices and treasury bonds; in the commodity sectors, it analyzes the supply - demand changes in raw materials, production status, and market consumption trends [5][7][12]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share markets rose on Friday. As the market approaches the 4000 - point key level, it may enter an upward - oscillation phase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a strong - biased oscillation on Friday. With the end of the third quarter approaching, institutional behavior may cause significant market fluctuations. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Coal prices continued to decline. After the rain stopped, production gradually resumed. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, and range trading is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: Futures prices dropped significantly last Friday. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak, but the demand may recover after August. It is expected that the price will first fall and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended [7][8] - **Glass**: The downstream demand may pick up in the short term. Considering the traditional peak season and positive macro - sentiment, it is recommended to go long at low prices [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is mainly affected by macro factors, showing a high - level oscillation. With the arrival of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and it is recommended to moderately hold long positions at low levels [12][13] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the downstream demand is entering the peak season. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to inventory performance [13] - **Nickel**: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term, and it is expected that the price will show a weak oscillation [18] - **Tin**: The supply improvement is limited, and the demand in the off - season is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the Fed's possible interest - rate cut and trade negotiations, the prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to go long at low prices after a pullback [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to show a weak oscillation in the short term [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is in a state of destocking, and the demand from alumina is good. There are still opportunities to go long at low prices in the peak season [23][24] - **Styrene**: The cost and demand are under pressure, and it is expected to show a weak oscillation [25][26] - **Rubber**: The inventory is decreasing, and the cost is supported. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is scattered. It is expected to be neutral in the short term [29] - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand from methanol - to - olefins is expected to increase. However, the port inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [30] - **Polyolefins**: With the arrival of the peak consumption season, the downstream demand is expected to be boosted. It is expected that the price will oscillate, and the L - to - PP spread is expected to widen [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is sluggish, and the 09 contract still faces large delivery pressure. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage of shorting 01 and going long on 05 [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply - demand situation is improving, but the new - cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [36] - **Apples**: The prices of early - maturing apples are firm, and it is expected to maintain a strong - biased trend [36][37] - **Jujubes**: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. It is expected that the spot price will remain stable in the short term [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts and consider an arbitrage of going long on 05 and shorting 03 [38][40] - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient in the short term, and the price increase is limited. It is recommended to go short at high prices and pay attention to the elimination situation [40][41][42] - **Corn**: The supply is sufficient during the transition period between old and new crops. It is recommended to go short on the 11 - contract after a rebound and take profit on the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by costs. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract [44][45] - **Oils**: The domestic oil market lacks new positive news in the short term, and it is in a high - level adjustment phase. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction and then go long [46][48][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold off [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bearish on glass, recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading or waiting for opportunities; recommended to buy aluminum on dips [1][11][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; bearish on soda ash for the 09 contract, recommended to hold short positions [1][20][22][25][31] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for long - term investment; neutral on apples and jujubes, recommended for range trading [1][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, recommended to go long on dips [1][37][39][40][42][45] Core Views The stock market is in the second stage of a bull market, with expected incremental capital inflows. The bond market may see a short - term repair if the stock market corrects. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand are relatively balanced, with prices expected to fluctuate. Non - ferrous metal prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand and macro - policies, and are expected to remain volatile. Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by supply, demand, and cost factors, with a weakening supply - demand relationship for some products. In the cotton and textile industry, global supply and demand are improving, and prices are expected to be strong. In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, supply and demand vary by product, with some facing supply pressure and others showing signs of improvement [6][8][11][20][34][37] Summary by Catalog Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The three major indices continued their strong performance. The market is in the second stage of a bull market, with incremental capital expected. Short - term market tops are difficult to predict, and investors should maintain positions and make appropriate adjustments. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [6] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market started a repair on Monday, breaking through the lower limit of the previous trading range. There is a greater probability that stocks and bonds will follow their own trends in the short term, but the relationship between them is not completely decoupled. The recommended strategy is to hold off [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On August 25, the spot market entered a calm period, with upstream inventory rising and downstream inventory gradually decreasing. Supply recovery was slower than expected, and the overall inventory was healthy. The recommended strategy is range trading, with JM2601 focusing on the range of 1110 - 1250 and J2601 on 1610 - 1780 [8] - **Rebar**: On Monday, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Fundamentally, demand increased slightly, production decreased, and inventory increased. The price is near the electric furnace cost, with a neutral - low valuation. The recommended strategy is range trading, with RB2510 focusing on the range of 3100 - 3200 [8] - **Glass**: Supply remained stable last week, with high upstream inventory. Demand improved slightly, but the high inventory still suppressed prices. The near - term contract is expected to decline slightly, and the recommended strategy is to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait and see for the 01 contract [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: This week, copper prices remained stable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. The dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies will support copper prices. Supply has increased, but demand has not shown a turning point. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the short - term operating range of Shanghai copper at 78500 - 79500 yuan/ton [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation of bauxite have been affected by the rainy season. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and downstream demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition period. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [12][13] - **Nickel**: The release of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia has led to a slight decline in the price of nickel ore. The refined nickel market is in a surplus, and the price of nickel iron is stable. The price of stainless steel is expected to be strong, and the price of nickel sulfate is stable. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: In July, domestic refined tin production increased, and imports decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and inventory has decreased. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the operating range of Shanghai tin 09 contract at 259,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Powell's dovish speech has increased the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The trade negotiation results have reduced the market's concern about tariffs. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips after price corrections, with the operating range of Shanghai silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and Shanghai gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: On August 25, the PVC price was stable. High supply continues, and demand is mainly from soft products and new industries. Exports are facing challenges, and inventory is high. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [20] - **Caustic Soda**: On August 25, the caustic soda price was stable. The macro - environment is improving, supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the support level of 2650 [22] - **Styrene**: On August 25, the styrene price was stable. The cost is affected by factors such as crude oil and pure benzene. Supply is sufficient, and demand is limited. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the focus on the range of 7100 - 7400 [24][25] - **Rubber**: On August 25, the rubber price was stable. Supply was affected by typhoons, and inventory was decreasing. However, downstream acceptance of high prices was limited. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the focus on the range of 15200 - 15600 [26] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is increasing, and the demand is scattered. Inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term and then strengthen. The recommended strategy is to pay attention to the price support level of 1680 - 1720 [28][29] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable. Traditional demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate [29] - **Polyolefins**: On August 25, the polyolefin price was stable. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition period. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the L2509 contract focusing on the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, and the 09 contract is under pressure. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions [31][33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are improving, and the macro - environment is favorable. The price is expected to be strong [34] - **Apples**: The early - maturing apple market is in a state of polarization, and the price of stored apples is stable. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [35] - **Jujubes**: The jujube market is in the growth period, and the price is expected to fluctuate upward [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is weak, and the supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the 11 contract pressure level at 14200 - 14500 and the 01 contract at 14500 - 14700. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The egg price is weak in the peak season, and the supply pressure is gradually relieved. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 10 contract, and there may be opportunities to go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the elimination process accelerates [39] - **Corn**: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 11 contract or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The arrival of soybeans in September - October is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. However, cost support limits the decline. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the range of 3080 - 3200 [42][44] - **Oils**: The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to remain high and fluctuate. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips or use a rolling long strategy. Also, pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread strategy [45][52][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - **Black building materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - **Treasury bonds**: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron ore**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - **Silver and gold**: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - **Caustic soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - **Soda ash**: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - **Soybean meal**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - defensive wait - and - see; Treasury bonds - short - term optimistic, currently in a volatile state [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary wait - and - see; Iron ore - temporary wait - and - see; Coking coal and coke - volatile operation [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - cautious trading within a range; Aluminum - light - position short - selling recommended; Nickel - wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies; Tin - weakly volatile; Gold - trading within a range; Silver - trading within a range [1][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - weakly volatile; Soda ash - short - selling strategy for the 01 contract; Caustic soda - weakly volatile; Styrene - weakly volatile; Rubber - weakly volatile; Urea - weakly volatile; Methanol - weakly volatile; Polyolefins - wide - range volatility [1][20][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - volatile rebound; Apples - volatile operation; PTA - range - bound volatility [1][33][34] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short - selling on rallies; Eggs - short - selling on rallies; Corn - operating within the range of [2300, 2360]; Soybean meal - short - term operation within the range of [2900, 3000], long - term buying on dips; Oils - short - selling on rallies [1][35][40] Core Views - Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as international politics, trade policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Most varieties are in a volatile state, and investors need to pay attention to various factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. For example, the impact of US economic data and tariff policies on the financial and commodity markets, and the influence of supply - demand relationships on the prices of various commodities [5][21][36] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index**: Due to factors such as weak US economic data, geopolitical issues, and tariff disturbances, the index is expected to continue its structural market of volatility and sector rotation before the trading volume effectively increases [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently in a low - volatility environment, driven by news. The pattern of trading based on NCDs may continue. It is recommended that allocation portfolios buy on dips, while trading portfolios have limited short - term operation space [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Although the price rebounded on Wednesday due to the increase in coking coal prices, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [7] - **Iron Ore**: The disk is volatile and strong. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is mainly affected by macro news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the disk is expected to be volatile [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is affected by factors such as safety inspections and weak demand, and the price may be weakly volatile. The coke market has not resolved its supply - demand contradictions, and the price still has downward pressure [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - level disturbances are weakening, but the mine - end disturbances continue. The supply shortage pressure is difficult to change, and the consumption is relatively stable. The price is expected to be volatile before the holiday [11] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is currently loose, but the impact of mine - end disturbances will gradually appear. The demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13] - **Nickel**: The cost is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply is excessive. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and interval trading is recommended [15][16] - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap is improving, but it is affected by US tariff policies. The price is expected to be volatile, and interval trading is recommended [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, inflation data, and central bank policies, the prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and cautious interval trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is under pressure, the demand is insufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is relatively sufficient in the medium term, and the demand increment is limited. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and maintenance [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as crude oil prices and pure benzene imports [24][25] - **Rubber**: The demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is high, the demand is limited, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and fertilizer demand [28][29] - **Methanol**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and methanol - to - olefins start - up rates [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as new capacity investment and downstream demand [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. A short - selling strategy for the 01 contract is recommended [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is expected to drive the price to rebound [33] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be volatile [33] - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to be range - bound [34] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [35][36] - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [37][38] - **Corn**: The short - term price has support, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to buy on dips within the range [39][40] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be range - bound. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors. It is recommended to operate within the range in the short term and buy on dips after mid - June [40][41] - **Oils**: Different oil varieties have different supply - demand situations. The short - term prices are expected to be range - bound, and interval trading is recommended. The strategy of expanding the spread of some varieties is temporarily suspended [41][46]