证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 价格全方位多维跟踪体系（2025.08） 反内卷语境看价格结构性修复 流通领域重要生产资料价格跟踪 从绝对水平来看：截至 2025 年 8 月上旬，49 种主要产品中共有 19 种价格上 涨、28 种下降、2 种持平。上涨品种主要集中在上游煤炭（如无烟煤、焦炭 等）、中游农林（豆粕、天然橡胶、瓦楞纸等）以及下游化工（硫酸、甲醇、 涤纶长丝等），表现出供需趋紧与季节性需求带动的特征；下降品种则以黑 色金属（中板、角钢、热卷）、有色金属（铜、铝、锌等）、建材（水泥、 玻璃）、部分化工（PVC、顺丁橡胶、尿素）和能源（液化气、天然气、油 品）为主。下游需求不足及供应压力较大，整体价格承压。总体来看，价格 分化明显，上游能源与部分化工品景气回升，而黑色金属和建材链继续承压。 从同比数据来看：工业品同比整体仍在下行通道，但降幅逐步磨底持平。钢 铁、部分化工品率先修复转正；有色金属、部分化工龙头品种表现亮眼，硫 酸同比涨幅收窄至 49%；而煤炭、焦炭、传统建材、部分石化产品则仍深处 低位，市场进入"结构性修复+行业间分化"阶段。 上/中/下游不同产业链节点代表产品价格变化 近一月 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 价格全方位多维跟踪体系（2025.08） 反内卷语境看价格结构性修复 流通领域重要生产资料价格跟踪 从绝对水平来看：截至 2025 年 8 月上旬，49 种主要产品中共有 19 种价格上 涨、28 种下降、2 种持平。上涨品种主要集中在上游煤炭（如无烟煤、焦炭 等）、中游农林（豆粕、天然橡胶、瓦楞纸等）以及下游化工（硫酸、甲醇、 涤纶长丝等），表现出供需趋紧与季节性需求带动的特征；下降品种则以黑 色金属（中板、角钢、热卷）、有色金属（铜、铝、锌等）、建材（水泥、 玻璃）、部分化工（PVC、顺丁橡胶、尿素）和能源（液化气、天然气、油 品）为主。下游需求不足及供应压力较大，整体价格承压。总体来看，价格 分化明显，上游能源与部分化工品景气回升，而黑色金属和建材链继续承压。 从同比数据来看：工业品同比整体仍在下行通道，但降幅逐步磨底持平。钢 铁、部分化工品率先修复转正；有色金属、部分化工龙头品种表现亮眼，硫 酸同比涨幅收窄至 49%；而煤炭、焦炭、传统建材、部分石化产品则仍深处 低位，市场进入"结构性修复+行业间分化"阶段。 上/中/下游不同产业链节点代表产品价格变化 近一月 ...

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-08-25 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《俄乌冲突有望结束，关注乌克兰重建 受益标的》 - 2025.08.18 建材行业报告 （2025.08.18-2025.08.24） 中报逐步披露，关注下半年消费建材盈利改善 投资要点 消费建材行业龙头企业已逐步披露中报，行业整体虽然需求仍属 于承压阶段，但我们也观察到积极信号不断出现，如防水、涂料等行 业龙头企业加强协同，开始在底部区域协同提价，各个品类价格竞争 明显缓和，同时如三棵树披露中报，我们看到其产品结构提升、费用 降低带来的盈利改善逻辑如期兑现。 展望下半年，我们认为行业已从左侧逐步进入右侧区域，一方面 先行于行业基本面的地产开工及施工数据有望进入企稳区间，另一方 面，在低基数+竞争缓和背景下，盈利改善逻辑会在更多品类逐步兑 现，建议关注：东方雨虹、三棵树、北新建材、兔宝宝。 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that as of mid-August, the upstream resource industry is experiencing an upward trend in prosperity, while the midstream manufacturing sector shows a mixed performance, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, coal, basic chemicals, and oil and petrochemicals improving continuously [4] - In the downstream consumption sector, there is a divergence in performance; the social services and home appliance industries are on the rise, while the commercial retail sector is declining. In essential consumption, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, food and beverage, and textile and apparel industries are generally experiencing a downturn [4] - Supportive service industries and the financial sector are overall declining, with the environmental protection industry within supportive services also showing a downturn. However, the banking sector is improving, and the non-bank financial sector is on the rise, while the computer sector within the TMT industry is declining [4] Group 2 - The report tracks excess returns in various industries, including basic chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and construction materials, providing correlation data with high-frequency indicators [5][10][17][31][36][39][46][77] - The basic chemicals industry shows a strong correlation with various commodity prices, indicating potential investment opportunities based on price movements [6][9][17] - The steel industry is closely linked to production and inventory metrics, suggesting that monitoring these indicators can provide insights into future performance [10][12][14] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of tracking excess returns in the automotive industry, with indicators such as daily sales and production rates being critical for understanding market dynamics [48][50] - The machinery equipment sector's performance is analyzed through various price indices, indicating a need for investors to pay attention to these metrics for better investment decisions [55][58] - The report also emphasizes the significance of high-frequency indicators in the transportation sector, which can provide insights into overall economic activity and sector performance [60][62] Group 4 - The agricultural sector's excess returns are tracked against food product price indices, indicating a strong relationship between agricultural prices and overall sector performance [96][98] - The report discusses the food and beverage industry's performance in relation to various price indices, suggesting that monitoring these can help identify investment opportunities [98][99] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are analyzed with respect to traditional Chinese medicine price indices, highlighting the importance of these metrics in understanding market trends [101][106] Group 5 - The public utilities sector's performance is linked to coal consumption metrics, indicating that energy prices and consumption patterns are critical for assessing sector health [111][114] - The real estate sector's excess returns are correlated with metrics such as transaction volumes and land prices, suggesting that these indicators are vital for understanding market conditions [115][121] - The report also examines the computer industry, focusing on the relationship between excess returns and pricing trends in electronic components, which can inform investment strategies [124][127]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing theme of "anti-involution" in the construction materials sector, with a focus on the marginal changes in the fundamentals. The recent Politburo meeting highlighted the importance of high-quality urban renewal and the need to regulate chaotic competition among enterprises, which is expected to influence capacity management in key industries [4] - In the cement sector, a policy document released by the Cement Association on July 1 is anticipated to enhance the enforcement of production limits, leading to a potential decrease in capacity and an increase in utilization rates. The report predicts a gradual price recovery in August as demand improves [4] - The glass industry is experiencing a downward trend in demand due to the real estate sector's impact, with supply-demand imbalances persisting. However, the report notes that most companies in the float glass sector meet environmental standards, which may prevent drastic capacity cuts but could raise costs and accelerate maintenance schedules [5] - The fiberglass segment is expected to benefit from the AI industry, with demand for low-dielectric products projected to rise significantly. The report highlights a clear upgrade in product structure, indicating a potential explosive growth in demand [5] - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price pressure. The report notes a strong push for price increases across various categories, suggesting a potential improvement in profitability [5] Summary by Sections Cement - Cement prices are currently declining due to seasonal factors, with a 2.13% decrease in the price of ordinary cement (P.O 42.5) reported this week. The monthly production in June 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 5.3% [8] Glass - The glass market is facing challenges, with a 0.76% increase in prices this week, but overall demand remains weak. The report indicates that the industry is still grappling with supply-demand contradictions [13] Fiberglass - The fiberglass industry is experiencing a positive trend driven by AI-related demand, with expectations for both volume and price increases [5] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with companies actively raising prices after years of competitive pressure. This sector includes waterproofing materials, coatings, and gypsum boards [5] Recent Company Announcements - Oriental Yuhong reported a revenue of 13.569 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.84%, with a net profit of 564 million yuan, down 40.16% [17] - Rabbit Baby's associated company, Hanhai Group, was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with Rabbit Baby holding a 1.85% stake post-IPO [17]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.10%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.06 percentage points compared to June, while the demand index remained stable[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.03 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.90%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a seasonal recovery in loan demand[11] - New RMB loans are expected to be between CNY 1.80 trillion and CNY 2.0 trillion in June, slightly lower than the same period last year by CNY 0.28 trillion to CNY 0.13 trillion[14] - Government net financing reached CNY 1.41 trillion in June, an increase of CNY 0.7 trillion year-on-year, contributing to a projected social financing scale increase of CNY 3.6 trillion to CNY 3.8 trillion[14] Consumption and Production Insights - Passenger car retail sales in June increased by 15% year-on-year, improving from 13% in May[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending June 30 were 95,374 units, slightly down from the previous year[21] - The electricity load of coastal power plants averaged 82.71%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong industrial production[16] Export and Price Trends - The SCFI and CCFI indices for export container prices fell by 98.02 points and 26.35 points, respectively, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The average wholesale price of pork is CNY 20.38 per kg, showing a slight increase, while the price of key monitored vegetables is CNY 4.35 per kg, down slightly[37] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector is still under observation[46]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.12%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.94%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.16%, down 0.07 percentage points from May, and the demand index is at 49.93%, unchanged from May[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.97%, unchanged from May, while the consumption index is at 49.75%, also unchanged from May[7] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - Passenger car retail sales have improved, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24% as of June 22, up from 20% earlier in the month[7] - Real estate sales area in 30 major cities recorded a year-on-year decline of 17.8% as of June 28, worsening from a decline of 3.3% in May[7] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week[37] Group 3: External Demand and Trade - Port cargo throughput growth is at 0.8% year-on-year as of June 22, down from 4.4% in May, indicating a reduction in export disturbances due to tariffs[7] - The SCFI index for container shipping rates is at 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous week[32] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[11] - The central bank's net monetary injection for the week is 106.72 billion yuan, following a reverse repurchase operation of 202.75 billion yuan[41]

估值方面：截至 2025 年 5 月 16 日，申万汽车板块 PE（TTM） 26.74 倍，位于近 5 年的 34.72%分位点。 汽车产业链数据观察 市场研究部 2025 年 5 月 19 日 汽车行业周报（2025/5/12-2025/516） 行情综述 上周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.12%，申万汽车行业指数上涨 2.40%， 跑赢大盘 1.29 个百分点，在申万 31 个一级行业中排名第 3。 上周二级细分行业中，乘用车板块（+4.43%）、汽车零部件 （+2.18%）、汽车服务板块（+0.59%）、摩托车及其他板块（- 0.20%）、商用车板块（-1.70%）。上周三级行业均涨幅最大的三 个板块是电动乘用车（+6.16%）、其他汽车零部件（+5.34%）和 汽车电子电气系统（+3.43%）；仅商用载客车（-2.03%）出现回落。 个股：上周汽车行业 294 家上市公司中，192 家实现上涨，其中涨 幅前三为成飞集成（+61.09%)、兆丰股份（+34.78%)和新坐标 (+26.17%)。跌幅前三为苏奥传感(-9.01%)、潍柴重机(-8.90%)和金 鸿顺(-7.62%)。 截至 5 月 10 ...

市场研究部 2025 年 3 月 17 日 汽车产业链数据观察 截至 3 月 10 日，浮法平板玻璃(4.8/5mm)市场价为 1349.60 万元/吨， 周环比下降 3.86%。锌锭(0#)市场价为 2.38 万元/吨，较 2 月 28 日 上涨 0.67%；铝锭(A00)市场价为 2.07 万元/吨，较 2 月 28 日上涨 1.94%。1 月中国钢铁类大宗商品价格指数为 99.59，环比下降 1.69%，同比下降 14.75%；中国橡胶类大宗商品价格指数为 56.87， 环比下降 4.82%，同比上涨 17.62%。 截至 3 月 14 日，碳酸锂均价为 7.49 万元/吨，周环比回落 0.32%， 月环比下降 2.17%；截至 3 月 13 日，磷酸铁锂动力型均价在 3.43 万元/吨，周环比上涨 1.48%，月环比下降 6.16%；截至 3 月 14 日， 三元材料 523 均价为 102.83 万元/千克，较上周上涨 4.10%，月环 比上涨 8.85%；截至 3 月 10 日，电解液（三元圆柱 2.6Ah）均价为 1.99 万元/吨，周环比回落 1.00%，月环比回落 1.00%；截至 3 月 ...