1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PTA price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to weak cost and cautious demand expectations. The supply of PX and PTA may increase due to high - device operation rates and new production capacities, while the demand lacks strong support, and inventory may accumulate, putting downward pressure on prices. However, seasonal changes in demand and device changes need to be monitored [1][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 19, the PX主力contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 165.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力contract closed at 4,734.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost - end: On August 19, the Brent crude oil主力contract closed at 66.46 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.58 US dollars/barrel. The demand - end: On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 485.47 million meters [2]. - Supply side: The operation rates of PX and PTA devices remain high, and with the gradual implementation of new production capacities, the pressure of increased industry supply may continue to be released. The cost - end drive of PX is weak under the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the processing fees of PTA are suppressed by over - capacity, and the willingness of factories to increase production may further exacerbate the supply - loosening situation [2]. - Demand side: The transactions in the Light Textile City maintain a weak and stable pattern. Although the downstream polyester operation rate has not weakened significantly, the fabric orders lack substantial improvement. The traditional textile peak season is approaching, but the demand has not shown a continuous improvement, and the terminal negative feedback pressure continues to be transmitted upstream, making it difficult for the PTA demand side to form effective support [2]. - Inventory side: The PTA factory inventory is restricted by the weak basis structure, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. Currently, there are not many active production - reduction actions by factories, and there is still pressure on the price ceiling [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 19, the short - fiber主力contract closed at 6,432.0 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,500.0 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 68.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply side: The PX price has recently shown high - level fluctuations (ranging from 6,614 to 6,832 yuan/ton from August 11 - 19), but the PTA price has risen steadily (up 1.4% to 4,746 yuan/ton during the same period), indicating that the cost - end support is weakening but the downstream acceptance is good [4]. - Demand side: The 15 - day moving average transaction volume of the Light Textile City has continuously rebounded from 479 million meters to 485 million meters, reflecting the gradual recovery of terminal textile demand [4]. - Inventory side: There is a structural differentiation in inventory. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (7.25 days) are significantly higher than the five - year average (4.96 days), while the inventory of polyester filament POY (16.1 days) is lower than the average (20.4 days), and the inventory of FDY/DTY is basically the same as the historical average. The high - inventory pressure of short - fiber may restrict the overall increase, and continue to pay attention to polyester production - reduction information [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 68.14%, and the持仓volume increased by 6.83%. PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 833.33 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.25% [5]. - PTA futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 4,734 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day; the成交volume decreased by 16.25%, and the持仓volume decreased by 2.41%. PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 623 US dollars/ton [5]. - Short - fiber futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,432 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 7.48%, and the持仓volume decreased by 0.53%. Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market increased by 0.08% [5]. - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle flakes, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or changed slightly on August 19 compared with the previous day [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha decreased by 1.09%, and the processing spreads of PTA decreased by 1.57%, while the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged [6]. - Light Textile City transaction volume: On August 19, the total transaction volume was 487 million meters, a decrease of 4.32% compared with the previous day, with the long - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 2.72% and the short - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 9.71% [6]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on August 19 [6]. - Inventory days: From August 7 to August 14, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 19, due to the UK inflation data being higher than expected, traders reduced their bets on the Bank of England's interest - rate cuts, believing that there would be no further cuts this year [7]. - On August 18, Fed's Daly said to wait for more data, and the number of interest - rate cuts may be less or more. It is still a good prediction to cut interest rates twice this year; Goolsbee said that the latest PPI and CPI inflation data were disturbing. If signs show that inflation is not in a spiral in September or later in the fall, interest rates can be cut. The market reduced its bets on interest - rate cuts but still expected a cut in September and another cut in 2025 [7]. - On August 18, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that the plan for Hong Kong to develop an international gold trading center would be announced within the year [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 393.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 93.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA主力futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester short - fiber and long - fiber sales situations, Light Textile City transaction volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of international crude oil has continued to rise due to geopolitical relations and other factors, which has strengthened the cost support for PX. The domestic PX supply level is low, demand is good, and the fundamental boosting effect still exists. However, whether the PX benefit can continue to rise depends on whether there are more unexpected factors. [2] - The cost of PTA is pushed up by the rising crude oil, but the spot basis has weakened due to the shipment of the main PTA suppliers. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and it is difficult to boost the price due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season on the demand side. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has risen, but the market trading atmosphere is light. The supply side's starting level remains low, and the market supply is abundant, while the downstream terminal's buying enthusiasm is not high. [2] - Without more unexpected positive factors, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 30, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased by 1.14% and 1.01% respectively compared with the previous values. The spot prices of naphtha, xylene, etc. also showed varying degrees of increase. [1] - **PTA**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts, as well as the domestic spot price and CCFEI price index, all increased to different extents on July 30, 2025. The near - far month spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10 yuan/ton. [1] - **PX**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts increased on July 30, 2025. The domestic spot price remained unchanged, and the spot prices in other regions increased slightly. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread decreased. [1] - **PR**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main contract increased slightly on July 30, 2025, while the closing and settlement prices of the near - month contract decreased slightly. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets showed different trends, and the basis also changed accordingly. [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of some polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, and short - fiber increased slightly on July 30, 2025, while some remained unchanged. [2] Operating Conditions - On July 30, 2025, the PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 77.29%. The PTA factory load rate decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 79.45%, while the load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament increased by 77 percentage points to 110%, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester short - fiber decreased by 10 percentage points to 43%, and the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips increased by 21 percentage points to 89%. [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1. [2] Trading Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton (0.41%) with an intraday trading volume of 540,300 lots. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,984 yuan/ton (0.66%) with an intraday trading volume of 143,500 lots. The PR2509 contract closed at 6,014 yuan/ton (0.00%) with an intraday trading volume of 33,700 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI and Vitamin D3, suggesting a focus on the TDI and organic silicon sectors [1][5]. - The chemical sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 1.77%, surpassing the Shanghai A-share index by 1.08 percentage points [2][15]. - Key stocks that performed well include Dongcai Technology (+33.16%) and Cangzhou Dahua (+28.47%), while stocks like Guangxin Materials (-9.26%) and Ando A (-9.05%) saw declines [2][15]. Industry Performance - In the third week of July, 20 sub-industries within the chemical sector saw increases, with the top five being modified plastics (+7.42%) and phosphate chemicals (+7.41%) [3][19]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 25.83 times, which is lower than the average PE of 30.02 times since 2015 [2][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: liquid chlorine (+21.78%), TDI (+18.83%), and Vitamin D3 (+10%) [4][22]. - The report also notes significant changes in price spreads, with the ethylene spread increasing by 81.82% and PTA spread decreasing by 357.81% [4][43]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include an increase in epoxy propane (+11.97%) and a decrease in ethylene (-8.57%) [5][61]. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical due to the significant rise in TDI prices [5]. - Attention is also drawn to organic silicon producers like Xin'an Chemical and Xinfeng Group, following a fire incident affecting supply [5].

成本松动难提供支撑，需求弱现实拖累聚酯原料盘面 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 07月04日，PX 主力合约收6672.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.01%，基差为 170.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4710.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.76%，基 差为170.0元/吨。 成本端，07月04日，布油主力合约收盘68.85美元/桶。WTI收67.18美元/ 桶。需求端，07月04日，轻纺城成交总量为696.0万米，15 日平均成交为 645.33万米。 PX：PX价格短期可能继续承压，国际油价疲弱导致成本支撑不足，虽然基 差较高反映现货偏紧，但原油端波动叠加终端需求仍未明显转暖，预计期 货价格或维持弱势震荡。 PTA：PTA下方空间受限，上游PX走弱压制成本，但下游轻纺城成交持续回 升显示需求边际改善，聚酯负荷稳定叠加加工费偏低背景下，PTA或呈现成 本与需求博弈下的窄幅波动格局。 2. 聚酯 07月04日，短纤主力合约收6514.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.76%。华东 市场现货价为67 ...

缺乏有利因素推动，PX、PTA或继续维持偏弱振荡 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 06月06日，PX 主力合约收6556.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.24%，基差为 79.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4652.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.17%，基差 为228.0元/吨。 成本端，06月06日，布油主力合约收盘66.65美元/桶。WTI收64.77美元/ 桶。需求端，06月06日，轻纺城成交总量为754.0万米，15 日平均成交为 808.93万米。 目前PX开工率国内78%，亚洲69.4%，但青岛丽东100万吨PX装置计划6月负 荷提升至90%左右，浙石化歧化装置重启提负，辽阳石化短停的70万吨产能 5月26日重启，GS40万吨产能6月中重启等，PX供应将在6月有大量回归，随 后在7月陆续再度进入多套检修时间。PTA有新装置即将投产，供应压力逐 步回归，终端需求边际走弱，PTA价格可能继续承压。 2. 聚酯 二、 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the chemical industry Core Views - In May 2025, the basic chemical index increased by 2.12%, ranking 19th among primary industries, with 22 out of 32 sub-industries showing growth [2][11] - The report highlights significant price increases in hydrochloric acid (43.38%), nitrogen (19.95%), and TDI (17.10%) among other chemicals [3][26] - The report notes the successful launch of production lines in SAILUN's factories in Indonesia and Mexico, marking a significant step in the company's global strategy [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In May 2025, major market indices showed positive growth: Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.09%, Shenzhen Component Index by 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.32% [11] - The basic chemical index's performance was relatively strong, with 379 companies reporting positive returns and 159 companies reporting negative returns [22] Price Movements - The top ten chemicals with the highest price increases in May 2025 included hydrochloric acid (43.38%), nitrogen (19.95%), and TDI (17.10%) [3][26] - Conversely, the chemicals with the largest price declines included TMA (-36.36%) and dichloropropane (-22.38%) [34] Sub-Industry Performance - Among the secondary sub-industries, chemical fibers led with a growth of 7.98%, followed by agricultural chemicals at 3.89% [16] - The top five performing tertiary sub-industries included polyester (19.53%) and pesticides (10.97%) [18][21] Company Performance - The report lists the top ten basic chemical companies by monthly growth, with Suzhou Longjie leading at 84.09% [23] - The bottom ten companies included Boyuan Co., which saw a decline of -22.97% [25] Industry Insights - The report discusses the stable demand for hydrochloric acid, with supply issues noted in Hunan and Fujian provinces [28] - It also highlights the impact of environmental inspections on bromine production, leading to reduced supply and increased prices [29]

截至05月23日10:17，化工ETF（159870.SZ）上涨0.53%，其关联指数细分化工（000813.CSI）上涨 0.57%；主要成分股中，万华化学上涨0.75%，盐湖股份上涨1.00%，光威复材上涨1.62%，藏格矿业上 涨0.96%，云天化上涨0.85%。 消息面上，5月23日化工板块表现活跃，苏州龙杰11天7板，汇得科技3连板，尤夫股份、永冠新材涨 停，联合化学、润阳科技涨超10%；生意社数据显示涤纶FDY价格较月初上涨8.92%至7424元/吨，原料 成本上行推动相关企业盈利预期改善，带动细分化工指数及成分股走强。 券商研究方面，兴业证券指出当前化工核心资产估值总体处于历史较低水平，安全边际显著，以细分化 工指数成分股为例，万华化学、华峰化学PB历史分位均低于1%，宝丰能源、华鲁恒升等企业分位也低 于20%，配置价值凸显；慧博智能投研则强调AI技术正推动化工行业研发范式与生产模式变革，龙头企 业通过智能配煤系统等技术应用提升效率并降低成本，如宝丰能源利用AI算法优化煤化工生产流程， 行业技术升级或进一步强化头部企业竞争优势。 关联产品： 化工ETF（159870），联接基金（A类 01494 ...

苏州龙杰走出11天7板， 汇得科技走出3连板， 尤夫股份、 永冠新材涨停， 联合化学、 润阳科技涨超 10%。消息面上，5月23日，生意社涤纶FDY基准价为7424.00元/吨，与本月初(6816.00元/吨)相比，上 涨了8.92%。 ...

理性预期回归挤出情绪溢价，PX、PTA估值存回调修复压力 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月21日，PX 主力合约收6766.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.47%，基差 为-1.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4788.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.18%，基 差为112.0元/吨。 成本端，05月21日，布油主力合约收盘65.6美元/桶。WTI收62.25美元/ 桶。 市场继续关注俄乌、美伊局势，油价短期震荡格局对成本端支撑有限。涤 丝库存压力缓解，未来关注下游纱厂备货节奏。 1/8 二、产业链价格监测 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-20 | 変化 | 近日涨跌幅 | 走勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX期货 | 主力合约价格 | 6,766 | 6,668 | 98 | 1.47% | | ...

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 8900.00 | 8900.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 下 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | 游 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6630.00 | 6620.00 | 0.15% | | 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 元/吨 | 6000.00 | 5995.00 | 0.08% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6050.00 | 6000.00 | 0.83% | | 装置信息 西北一套120万吨PTA装置计划5 ...