第 536 期 为持续提升发行规范，交易商协会发布以下提示：一、严格落实分销信息线上录入要求。二、做好撤标报备工作。三、规范开展申购环节信息留痕。四、严 格落实主承销商团机制相关要求。五、持续提升发行信息披露质量。 宏观动态 上海清算所：截至2025年末，债券托管规模50万亿元 2026-01-09 焦点关注 规范债务融资工具发行！交易商协会发布5项提示 交易商协会发布《关于进一步规范债务融资工具发行工作的业务提示》称，在近期监测中发现部分机构存在未按要求录入分销信息、未就撤标情况进行报 备、单期主承销商家数不满足自律规则要求等问题。 1月8日，上海清算所召开2026年工作会议，总结公司2025年工作，部署2026年工作。会议指出，2025年，集中清算业务规模819万亿元，其中中央对手清算 业务272万亿元，分别同比增长13.6%和29%。截至2025年末，债券托管规模50万亿元，同比增长12.6%。 区域热点 郑州市城投企业债务风险研究报告 辽宁省拟发行170亿元特殊再融资债，用于置换存量隐性债务 财政部拟发行1670亿元记账式附息国债 财政部发布通知，拟发行2026年记账式附息（一期）国债。本期国债为1年 ...

1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 1 月 5 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 135 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 135 亿元，中标量 135 亿元。 Wind 数 据显示，当日 4823 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净回笼 4688 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面整体依然宽松， D R001 加权平均利率上行超 2bp 至 1.26% 位置。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价在 1.25% 附近，供给超千 亿。非银机构以信用债抵押融资隔夜报价在 1.42%-1.43% 附近。交易员称，隔夜利率维持在低位符合开年季节性规律，但税期和信贷投放节奏可能很快带 来收敛压力。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.87% 。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.62% 附近，较上日小幅下行。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | （*数据来源：Win ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Chinese government bond market has undergone deep calibration amid frequent macro narratives and intense long-short logic battles, characterized by record supply and a proactive issuance pace in the primary market, effectively supporting active fiscal policies while the secondary market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the 10-year bond yield, which gradually shifted downward throughout the year [1][13]. Group 1: Primary Market Dynamics - In 2025, the primary market for government bonds achieved a historic leap under the theme of "active fiscal policy moderately strengthened, quality improved," with notable features including increased supply scale, scientifically advanced issuance pace, and continuous optimization of maturity structure [2][15]. - The total issuance of government bonds reached a historic high of 16,014.02 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.37% compared to 12,474.83 billion yuan in 2024, with 206 bonds issued throughout the year [2][15]. - The issuance of special bonds focused on long-term funding for national strategic security areas and key projects, with the issuance of ultra-long special bonds reaching 1.3 trillion yuan, expected to significantly boost annual GDP growth [5][19]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The overall issuance interest rates of government bonds declined, effectively guiding the financing costs across society. The short-term interest rates (1-3 years) ranged from 1.16% to 1.79%, while the 10-year bond issuance rate stabilized around 1.78% [6][19]. - The systematic decline in issuance costs of government bonds, as a risk-free rate anchor, directly contributed to the reduction of comprehensive financing costs in the bond market and the real economy, achieving efficient unity between fiscal sustainability and financial benefits to the real sector [6][19]. Group 3: Secondary Market Developments - The secondary market for government bonds in 2025 was characterized by complex dynamics, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between approximately 1.6% and 1.9%, undergoing a "four-round game" of expectations that ultimately established a new oscillating equilibrium [7][21]. - The first round saw a rapid correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding monetary easing, with yields rebounding nearly 40 basis points by mid-March [9][21]. - The fourth round featured a key institutional benefit with the central bank's announcement to restart government bond trading operations, which was interpreted as a significant step in enhancing liquidity management tools and stabilizing long-term expectations [10][22]. Group 4: Strategic Role of Government Bonds - The evolution of the government bond market in 2025 transcended mere financing and trading, extending its functions to monetary policy operations, financial openness, and the construction of the national credit system [11][23]. - The "stabilizer" and "attractiveness" roles of RMB assets have strengthened, with foreign investors steadily increasing their holdings, leading to broader inclusion of government bonds in major global bond indices [11][23]. - The modernization of government bond management, including the incorporation of bond trading into the central bank's regular monetary policy toolbox, marks a significant milestone in establishing a modern central banking system [11][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The government bond market is expected to continue evolving under the overarching theme of "high-quality development," balancing necessary government financing, reducing debt costs, and maintaining financial system stability [12][24]. - As market depth, product innovation, and institutional openness progress, the yield curve of government bonds will increasingly serve as a benchmark for asset pricing across society [12][24]. - Market participants will need to shift from merely chasing interest rate trends to developing a deeper understanding of macro logic, seizing structural opportunities, and effectively managing interest rate risks to succeed in the new balanced market [12][24].

Core Viewpoint - The recent intensive issuance of government bonds reflects the ongoing implementation of proactive fiscal policies aimed at supporting economic growth and ensuring effective use of funds [1][3]. Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance has recently issued 970 billion yuan in coupon-bearing government bonds and 600 billion yuan in discount government bonds, with additional short-term bonds scheduled for issuance [1]. - The issuance of super long-term special government bonds has increased significantly this year, with a total of 1.3 trillion yuan issued, which is 300 billion yuan more than last year [2]. - The issuance schedule for super long-term special government bonds has been accelerated, with the first issuance occurring about a month earlier than last year, facilitating quicker fund deployment [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - Experts indicate that the ongoing issuance of government bonds is a key component of a more aggressive fiscal policy, which is expected to continue in the future [3]. - The issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in super long-term special government bonds is projected to contribute 1.7% to 1.9% to GDP growth in 2025, providing crucial support for economic growth targets [2]. - The funds raised from government bond issuance in the fourth quarter are intended to support the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and enhance market liquidity [2]. Group 3: Fund Utilization and Oversight - The effectiveness of government bond fund utilization is critical for policy implementation, necessitating improved oversight and assessment to ensure funds are effectively allocated [3]. - Future fiscal policies are expected to focus on enhancing social confidence and expanding effective demand, particularly in areas such as modern industrial systems and infrastructure upgrades [3].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reports that as of the end of August, the average interest cost of local debt replacement has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points [1] - The Central Clearing and Interbank Lending Center will jointly launch a centralized bond lending business [1] - Three departments are utilizing funds from ultra-long special government bonds to support large-scale equipment upgrades in the energy and electricity sectors, guiding high-quality industry development [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue a second tranche of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds with a total face value of 82 billion yuan [1] - The Ministry of Finance intends to issue the first tranche of the 2025 book-entry interest-bearing government bonds with a total face value of 160 billion yuan [1] - CITIC Securities has received approval from the CSRC to publicly issue no more than 60 billion yuan in corporate bonds to professional investors [1] Group 3 - Yuexiu Group plans to pay interest on its 900 million yuan medium-term notes, with a remaining debt balance of 30 million yuan [1] - Several bond issuers have been publicly reprimanded, primarily due to violations in regular report disclosures [1] - Hainan has completed roadshows for issuing offshore RMB local government bonds in Hong Kong [1] Group 4 - NIO Automobile held its first creditors' meeting, confirming debts of approximately 5.1 billion yuan [1] - AllianzGI and other institutions have increased their holdings of Chinese government bonds [1] - Analysts predict that US Treasury yields will decline in the coming months, with the 10-year yield potentially reaching a low of 3.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market's surge has put significant pressure on the bond market, with the A-share market reaching historical highs while government bonds experience notable declines [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3740 points, marking a rise of over 1% and reaching its highest level since August 21, 2015, a nearly ten-year high [1][3]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time in history, indicating strong market performance [3]. - The ChiNext Index rose by 3%, surpassing 2600 points, with a year-to-date increase of over 20% [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Reaction - The bond market saw significant declines, with the 30-year government bond futures dropping by over 1%, and the 10-year government bond futures falling by 0.3% [1][3]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond increased by 3.35 basis points, reaching 2.0275% [1]. - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to support government bond market making and improve liquidity in the secondary market [1][3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent stock market rally has led to a shift in investment strategies, with active funds driving the current market momentum [7]. - Despite the stock market's performance, retail investor participation remains cautious, with a notable lack of new account openings and continued net redemptions in ETFs [7]. - Foreign capital has shifted from net selling to net buying, indicating potential for continued inflows into the stock market [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The total bond issuance in the market reached 27.29 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 24% [1] - Among the total, government bonds accounted for 16.93 trillion yuan, while credit bonds totaled 10.35 trillion yuan [1] - Specific figures include 7.88 trillion yuan in national bonds, 5.49 trillion yuan in local bonds, 55 billion yuan in central bank bills, and 349.68 billion yuan in policy financial bonds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 35.58%, 57.18%, and 19.23% for national, local, and policy financial bonds [1] Group 2: ABS Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the ABS market saw 1,090 new projects with a total issuance of 974.9 billion yuan, marking a 27% increase year-on-year [3] - Credit ABS issuance decreased by 23%, with 102 new projects totaling 95.9 billion yuan [3] - The largest issuance came from non-performing loans, with 80 projects amounting to 36.2 billion yuan, followed by personal auto loans with 10 projects totaling 34.3 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance Plans - The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 240 billion yuan of book-entry interest-bearing government bonds, including 109 billion yuan of 7-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.79% and 131 billion yuan of 10-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.67% [5] Group 4: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 1.31 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4.065 trillion yuan in reverse repos [7] Group 5: Local Government Bond Issuance - Hunan Province successfully issued its third batch of special bonds, totaling 9.856 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 23.854 billion yuan for land reserve special bonds, accounting for 44.56% of construction project funding [8] Group 6: Corporate Bond Issuance - Zhoukou Investment Group plans to issue 3.593 billion yuan in corporate bonds, which has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9] - The Zhumadian Urban Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 400 million yuan in corporate bonds with a 2.72% interest rate [9] - Tailong Pharmaceutical intends to register 800 million yuan in short-term financing bonds to replace bank loans and supplement working capital [10] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The West Fixed Income team predicts that credit bond yields are likely to remain volatile, with the interest rate spread expected to reach its lowest point in the third quarter [20] - The Hua'an Fixed Income team anticipates that August may see a peak in the supply of interest rate bonds, with a significant reduction in supply pressure in July [20]

Group 1 - The Henan provincial government has issued guidelines to promote high-quality investment attraction, emphasizing the transformation of urban investment companies into industrial investment companies and encouraging mergers [1] - The guidelines support provincial and municipal industrial investment companies to establish offshore investment companies and strengthen capital services [1] - There is encouragement for state-owned enterprises and investment funds to collaborate with financial institutions for project financing and to issue domestic and foreign bonds for capital injection [1] Group 2 - Henan province plans to issue a total of 165.73 billion yuan in local bonds for urban development, shantytown renovation, and other projects [3] - The bonds will include general bonds for education and water conservancy projects, as well as special bonds for social undertakings [3] - The issuance is scheduled for June 24, with the bonds set to start accruing interest on June 25 [3] Group 3 - Zhengzhou city has introduced policies to accelerate the development of technology finance, including support for issuing technology innovation bonds [4] - The policies aim to enhance financing channels for technology sectors and encourage local enterprises to apply for provincial bond issuance incentives [4] Group 4 - Shandong, Xinjiang, and Guizhou provinces are planning to issue "special" new special bonds totaling approximately 40.2 billion yuan for various government investment projects [6] - The bonds will have different terms, with Shandong issuing 119.98 billion yuan over 15 years, Xinjiang issuing 135.4 billion yuan and 143 billion yuan over 20 and 30 years respectively, and Guizhou issuing 4 billion yuan over 30 years [6] Group 5 - Shima shares plans to issue up to 1 billion yuan in convertible corporate bonds, with proceeds aimed at repaying company debts [7] - Muyuan Foods has submitted a registration for a 5 billion yuan corporate bond issuance, also intended for debt repayment [8] - The Zhumadian Huanghe Information Industry Investment Company is set to issue 700 million yuan in corporate bonds [9] Group 6 - The first batch of private venture capital institutions has successfully issued technology innovation bonds, with Jiangsu Yida issuing 150 million yuan and Shenzhen Dongfang Fuhai issuing 400 million yuan [10][11] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 170 billion yuan in book-entry interest-bearing government bonds with a coupon rate of 1.43% [12] Group 7 - The market has seen a net financing decrease in urban investment bonds, with a reported net financing of -39.7 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [18] - The total issuance of technology innovation bonds has reached 738.5 billion yuan, with significant growth in non-financial industry issuances [19]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 215.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with an interest rate steady at 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan after 157 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The overnight Shibor decreased by 4.10 basis points to 1.4110%, while the 7-day Shibor fell by 2.00 basis points to 1.5780%. The 14-day Shibor saw a slight increase of 0.20 basis points to 1.6690% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, overnight rates continued to decline, while the 14-day rates saw a slight increase. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 3.4 basis points and 3.2 basis points, respectively [4] Group 2 - The interbank funding market showed a balanced and slightly loose trend, with overnight pledged rates for certificates of deposit trading at 1.48%-1.50% by the end of the day, indicating a generally loose liquidity environment [10] - As of 5:30 PM on May 28, there were 80 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 96.56 billion yuan [10] - The issuance of local government bonds reached 353.54 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, with an average issuance term of 16.9 years and an average interest rate of 1.96% [13]