Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and rising geopolitical tensions, with potential for further upward movement in the short term [1][6]. Economic Overview - The U.S. consumer confidence index slightly decreased to 55, marking a five-month low, attributed to a slowing job market and persistent inflation [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing sector shows resilience, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 49.1, indicating a slight recovery in production and employment, despite a drop in new orders [2]. - High-frequency data indicates sustained consumer spending momentum, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow projecting a 3.8% annualized growth rate for Q3 [3]. Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with a consensus to lower rates by 25 basis points [4]. - Political uncertainties have escalated, with the U.S. government shutdown affecting federal operations and delaying key economic data releases [5]. Gold Market Insights - The ongoing government shutdown and political deadlock are eroding the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves continues, with China's reserves rising to 7.406 million ounces, reflecting a sustained demand for gold [8]. - The potential impact of the U.S. government's legalization of stablecoins on dollar credibility could influence gold prices, depending on the stability of these digital assets [7].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of October 8, London spot gold closed at $4040.42 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $281.64 per ounce since September 26, representing a rise of 7.49% [1] - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by the U.S. government shutdown, which has heightened macroeconomic uncertainty and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][9] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the trend of "de-dollarization" globally are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [9][11] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.1, indicating resilience in manufacturing, although new orders showed a decline [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a projected annualized GDP growth rate of 3.8% for Q3, while consumer spending remains robust with a 3.2% growth forecast [3] - Job market indicators show a mixed picture, with the ADP reporting a decrease in employment of 3,200 jobs in September, below market expectations [3][4] Group 3: Political and Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. government has been shut down since October 1 due to budget disagreements, which has led to delays in key economic data releases, further contributing to market uncertainty [5][7] - Political instability in France, highlighted by the resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu, adds to the uncertainty in European markets [8] - The ongoing political polarization in the U.S. raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and could lead to prolonged market disruptions [7][9] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, with a nearly 95% probability of a cut in October, driven by the government shutdown and labor market slowdown [6][9] - Some Federal Reserve officials express concerns about potential inflationary pressures, particularly in the services sector, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [6][9] Group 5: Central Bank Gold Purchases - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, reaching 7,406 million ounces by the end of September, marking the eleventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [11] - The trend of central banks purchasing gold is expected to continue, driven by the need for asset diversification amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown an upward trend, reaching a new high, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and potential U.S. government shutdowns [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of September 26, gold prices closed at $3,758.78 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $74.13 per ounce, marking a 2.01% rise [1]. - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with officials expressing differing views but leaning towards dovish stances, which supports the outlook for gold prices [1][3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia, NATO, and conflicts in the Middle East, are contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the second quarter GDP revised up to 3.8%, driven by stronger consumer and investment growth [2]. - The U.S. unemployment claims decreased to 218,000, indicating a stable job market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future decisions [3]. - The potential U.S. government shutdown could impact GDP, with estimates suggesting a 0.1 percentage point drag per week [4]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally is expected to support gold as a new pricing anchor, increasing demand for gold as a safe asset [7]. - Central banks, including China's, continue to increase gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces, reflecting a sustained trend of gold accumulation [7]. - The introduction of stablecoin regulations may influence the demand for gold, depending on the stability and credibility of the U.S. dollar [6].

Group 1 - Spot gold prices rose on September 22, breaking the $3,700 mark and reaching a new high, while domestic futures saw the Shanghai gold main contract increase by over 2%, closing at 846.50 yuan [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, gold's strong performance continued, with 10 Fed officials supporting three or more rate cuts this year, and the market expecting a 92% probability of a rate cut in October [1] - Geopolitical risks and global economic concerns continue to bolster gold's status as a preferred asset for risk hedging, with central banks expected to maintain strong gold purchases between 900 to 950 tons this year [1] Group 2 - In the context of the Fed's rate cuts, various industrial metals also saw price increases, with Shanghai silver rising by 3.81% to 10,317 yuan per kilogram, setting a new historical high [4] - The copper market is experiencing stable growth due to demand from green energy transitions and artificial intelligence, despite supply disruptions [4] - The rare earth market is seeing increased overseas orders following China's export controls, with expectations for price stabilization and profit recovery for related companies [4] Group 3 - The valuation of the non-ferrous metals index is approximately 24 times earnings, which is at the 35th percentile historically, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [5] - Investors are encouraged to participate in the market through mining ETFs and non-ferrous 60 ETFs [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3828.58 points, up 0.22%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13157.97 points, up 0.67% [1][3] - The overall market showed more declines than gains, with the electronics and computer sectors leading the market [1] Gold Market - Spot gold prices rose, with London gold breaking the $3700 mark, continuing its strong performance following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision [1][4] - The Fed's dot plot indicated that 10 members support three or more rate cuts this year, with a 92% probability of a cut in October, which has heightened expectations for a low-interest environment [1][4] - Continuous geopolitical risks and global economic concerns reinforce gold's position as a preferred asset for risk hedging, with central banks expected to purchase between 900 to 950 tons of gold this year [4] Industrial Metals - Under the backdrop of the Fed's rate cuts, various industrial metals also saw price increases, with the non-ferrous metals sector rising approximately 1% [2][6] - Silver prices surged by 3.81%, reaching 10317 yuan/kg, driven by strong demand in electronics and photovoltaic sectors, alongside concerns over supply shortages [6][7] - Copper prices are supported by stable demand from green energy transitions and AI, despite supply-side disruptions [6] Rare Earths - Following China's strengthened export controls on rare earths, overseas restocking orders have increased, and domestic demand remains robust [7] - The rare earth sector is expected to see continuous performance improvements, with the non-ferrous metals index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 24 times, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [7] AI Computing Power - The domestic computing power market is experiencing a resurgence, with the National Technology ETF rising over 5% [2][9] - The trend towards domestic substitution in AI computing is gaining momentum, with significant optimism regarding the industry's outlook [9][10] - The demand for AI is shifting from training to inference, suggesting stronger and more sustained investment in the sector [10] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is gradually recovering, with the Photovoltaic 50 ETF rising 6.33% since the beginning of the month [3][11] - Policy support and a focus on reducing vicious competition are expected to stabilize prices and improve profitability in the sector [11] - Global demand for photovoltaic installations is projected to grow, with annual new installations expected to exceed 600 GW [11]

Group 1 - The ETF market opened with mixed results, with the Hong Kong-Shenzhen ETF (517170) leading the gains at 1.93% [1] - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF (159518) increased by 1.76%, while the STAR 50 Enhanced ETF (588370) rose by 1.58% [1] - Gold ETFs experienced declines, with the leading Gold ETF (518880) down by 1.56%, and other gold-related ETFs also showing losses [1] Group 2 - A-shares accounts can now buy Hong Kong stocks on a T+0 basis without the need for a Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded due to increased market risk aversion following the passage of Trump's tax reform and proposed tariffs on Europe, with medium to long-term support expected from the Fed's interest rate cuts and global de-dollarization trends [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 23, gold closed at $3357.52 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $124.68 per ounce, representing a 4.86% rise [1]. - Trump's tax reform passed in the House with a narrow margin, raising concerns about the U.S. deficit [3]. - Trump announced a proposal to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, heightening market risk aversion [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. May Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3, above expectations of 49.9, while the Services PMI also came in at 52.3, exceeding the forecast of 51 [2]. - The U.S. April existing home sales fell by 0.5% to an annualized rate of 4 million units, the lowest since 2009, while new home sales rose by 10.9% to an annualized rate of 743,000 units [2]. - The U.S. leading economic index (LEI) dropped by 1.0% in April, marking the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold is notable, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves to 73.77 million ounces as of April, marking the sixth consecutive month of increases [5]. - The combination of monetary expansion, fiscal deficit monetization, and geopolitical instability is expected to enhance the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - The global trend of de-dollarization may position gold as a new pricing anchor, potentially leading to upward momentum for precious metals [4].