Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is in a "mid-game break" of a bull market, with significant long-term allocation value despite reduced valuation advantages compared to below 3000 points [3][14]. Investment Directions - The company is optimistic about five key investment directions: AI infrastructure, new energy, overseas consumption, global infrastructure, and "anti-involution" sectors [3][15]. Investment Philosophy Iteration - The investment philosophy has evolved to focus on "growth" while integrating core principles of "value investing," applicable to both technology and growth stocks [6][7][9]. Investment Strategy - The core strategy since 2025 has been to maintain a high position while focusing on "AI+" and quality companies in sectors like domestic computing power, internet, overseas computing power, new energy, and overseas consumption [7][8]. Ability Circle - The company has defined a clear ability circle, focusing on TMT, manufacturing, cyclical, and consumer sectors, adhering to the principle of operating within understood domains [8][12]. Stock Selection Criteria - Emphasis is placed on identifying leading stocks with competitive advantages, applying qualitative and quantitative frameworks for stock selection [8][12]. Market Analysis - The company highlights that while the current market valuation is less attractive, the long-term potential of Chinese enterprises has significantly improved, with notable advancements in industries like AI and new energy [14][15]. AI and Storage Industry Insights - AI is viewed as a major market driver, with the current phase characterized as the "AI infrastructure era," while the storage industry is entering a golden development period, driven by the expansion of lithium battery scales and renewable energy [16][17]. Investment Mindset - The transition from public to private equity has led to a deeper understanding of the complexities and long-term nature of business operations, fostering a more disciplined investment approach focused on sustainable, absolute returns [18].

专题：申万宏源2026资本市场投资年会 11月19日，申万宏源证券2026资本市场投资年会在上海举办， 申万宏源研究资产配置资深高级分析师 冯晓宇，发表申万宏源2026年美股投资策略，当前市场对"AI泡沫"的担心主要是新技术带来经济规模效 应的时间vs资本市场对新技术投资回报的乐观期待之间的落差。 自2023年以来，本轮美股AI行情已经持续三年时间。2023~2024年美股AI行情以提估值为主，AI基础设 施以及有业绩的AI应用普涨。2025年AI相关行业（科技、通信）估值贡献相对有限，并且债务融资支 撑投资比例增加，在AI产业投资的ROI（投资回报率）尚不明确的阶段，市场进入对效益审视更严苛的 阶段。 当前市场对"AI泡沫"的担心主要是新技术带来经济规模效应的时间vs资本市场对新技术投资回报的乐观 期待之间的落差。从技术发展周期来看，新技术往往有助于生产效率的提升，不过生产力的提升（释放 新需求）需要技术成本系统性下降、企业组织架构调整、就业结构调整，这需要以年为单位的时间。这 个过程中，资本市场往往以乐观思维推演新技术的终局效用。而当市场看到生产力转化过程中的边界 时，股价泡沫往往出现破裂。对于边界的衡量 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes seizing growth opportunities arising from industrial upgrades in the machinery sector [4][6] - Investment recommendations focus on capturing growth lines and identifying quality leading companies with core competitiveness [5][7] Group 1: Industry Overview - The machinery industry is entering a second phase of industrial upgrading, with high-end manufacturing poised for significant growth opportunities [11][13] - The industry is characterized by a broad distribution of downstream applications, with numerous sub-sectors categorized into five primary and nineteen secondary industries [39][43] Group 2: Emerging Growth Directions - Key emerging growth areas include humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and unmanned forklifts, driven by AI advancements and energy transformation [6][10] - The report highlights the potential for humanoid robots to revolutionize productivity and improve human life, with significant market potential supported by national policies [49][53] Group 3: Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery sector has stabilized, with expectations of continued recovery driven by equipment updates and major infrastructure projects [7][10] - Globalization strategies are expected to enhance profitability and smooth domestic cyclical fluctuations, transitioning the industry towards a "globalization + electrification" growth model [7][10] Group 4: Self-Control and Localization - The report identifies significant opportunities in domestic substitution and self-control, particularly in scientific instruments and semiconductor components [7][10] - The focus is on increasing localization rates in core segments, with recommendations for companies in scientific instruments and X-ray detection equipment [7][10] Group 5: Nuclear Power and Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The nuclear power sector is experiencing favorable conditions, with ongoing improvements in the nuclear fission power industry and potential growth in controlled nuclear fusion [7][10] - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in nuclear power and fusion technologies for long-term investment opportunities [7][10] Group 6: Value Directions - The report emphasizes the importance of detection services, general equipment, and tire molds as value-driven segments within the machinery industry [7][10] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong cash flow and resilience in the current economic environment [7][10] Group 7: Investment Recommendations - A combination of growth and forward-looking companies is recommended, including those in humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and detection services [7][10] - Long-term investment strategies should prioritize companies with robust fundamentals and competitive positioning in their respective markets [7][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current high valuation of the US stock market, as pointed out by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, raises concerns reminiscent of the 2000 internet bubble, while significant investments in AI infrastructure by Alibaba are influencing market dynamics [1][3][5] - Powell's comments on the high valuation of US stocks are notable as such direct statements from the Federal Reserve are rare, indicating potential market implications [3][5] - The market's reaction to Powell's warning differs from past instances, with some investors fearing a downturn while others remain optimistic, suggesting that actual market movements are more closely tied to interest rate changes rather than mere statements from the Fed [5][17] Group 2 - Alibaba's recent announcements at the Yunqi Conference include a substantial investment plan of 380 billion yuan (approximately 53.5 billion USD) for AI infrastructure over three years, aiming to enhance global data center efficiency and computing power [7][8] - The announcement led to a significant increase in Alibaba's stock price, reflecting investor confidence in the company's commitment to AI and technology advancements [8][21] - The AI sector is viewed as having substantial growth potential, with Alibaba's executive highlighting the future proliferation of intelligent agents and robots, indicating a transformative phase in technology [8][19] Group 3 - The differences in policy responses between the US and China are highlighted, with the US Federal Reserve's independence leading to varied market reactions compared to China's more coordinated approach to economic management [10][15] - The ongoing adjustments in policy and technological advancements are seen as critical factors for investors to monitor, particularly regarding interest rates and economic data [21][22] - The AI field is characterized by both opportunities and risks, with the potential for significant advancements but also ethical concerns regarding future developments, particularly as AI progresses towards more advanced stages [19][21]

Group 1: Solid-State Battery Developments - A research team led by Professor Zhang Qiang from Tsinghua University has made significant progress in polymer electrolytes for lithium batteries, developing a new fluorinated polyether electrolyte that enhances physical contact and ionic conductivity at solid-state interfaces, potentially aiding the development of mature solid-state battery products [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments have issued an action plan emphasizing solid-state batteries as a key focus area, aiming to support the transition of lithium and sodium batteries to solid-state technology and to establish 3 to 5 global leading enterprises by 2027 [4] - As of September 25, 21 solid-state battery concept stocks have seen net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan since September, with companies like CATL, Xian Dao Intelligent, Guoxuan High-Tech, and Ganfeng Lithium leading in net purchase amounts [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The solid-state battery sector has experienced a surge in stock prices, with several companies reaching their daily limit up due to positive market sentiment [3] - Brokerages have seen a rise in stock prices, with Guosheng Financial hitting the daily limit, and other firms like Xinda Securities, GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and CITIC Securities also experiencing gains [4] - The central bank has emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to encourage financial institutions to increase credit supply, which may positively impact the financial sector [7] Group 3: AI Infrastructure Investments - Alibaba has announced a three-year investment plan of 380 billion yuan for AI infrastructure, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing computational capabilities [11] - The demand for computational power is rapidly increasing due to the AI technology revolution, with estimates suggesting that the training requirements for large models double every 3 to 4 months [12] - Investment in computational infrastructure is expected to drive economic growth, with projections indicating that every yuan invested in the computational industry could generate 3 to 4 yuan in GDP growth [12]

| 甲骨文 < > | CO Q | | --- | --- | | ORCL | | | 344.889 今开 319.190 最高 345.490 最低 312.101 | | | 2.32% 总量 6524万股 总值 9687亿 42 81% 103.379 央于 | | | 重零 52 間高 345.490 52 周低 17.860 市橋 77.87 | | | 盘前 319.020 77.510 32.09% 09:30 美东 ▼ | | | 分时 五日 日K 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多, | | | 43.05% 卖1 345.070 5 | | | 买1 344.850 50 | | | न 价 를 | | | 23:16344.940 294 100 | | | 23:16344.9901 23:16345.000个 400 | | | 23:16345.080个 100 | | | 23:16344.940↓ 100 | | | 241.540- | 23:16344.965个 600 | | 23:16 345.078个 | 100 | | 23:16345.098个 | 127 | | 23:16 ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds have net bought Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards China [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief strategist for China believes the recent A-share rally is driven by improved liquidity, with funds moving from bonds and deposits to the stock market [1] - HSBC has raised its year-end target for the Shanghai Composite Index to 4000 points, citing abundant domestic liquidity and a potential 5% to 7% upside [1] Group 2 - Barclays and Societe Generale predict the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, influenced by Chairman Powell's shift in tone regarding employment risks [2] - Bank of America suggests that if the dollar weakens and the UK economy improves, the British pound could strengthen, with a forecast of GBP/USD reaching 1.45 in Q4 [2] Group 3 - Canadian dollar is under pressure due to trade uncertainties and expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, with the currency hitting a three-month low [3] - Citigroup expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to reach 4.10% by year-end, maintaining confidence in its long-term predictions [4] Group 4 - CITIC Securities anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, as Powell's comments align with their expectations [6] - China International Capital Corporation estimates that potential funds from household deposits entering the market could range from 5 to 7 trillion yuan [6] Group 5 - Huatai Securities indicates that the current economic conditions suggest a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with two additional cuts likely in Q4 [7] - China Merchants Macro reports that the Producer Price Index (PPI) likely bottomed out in June-July, with expectations for a rebound driven by global inventory cycles and oil prices [8] Group 6 - China Merchants Strategy recommends focusing on the entire rare earth sector, especially smaller companies, following new regulations that allow more firms to obtain mining quotas [9] - CITIC Securities notes that the current market rally is primarily driven by institutional investors rather than retail, emphasizing the importance of industry trends and performance [10] Group 7 - Huatai Securities maintains that coal prices are likely to remain supported due to high demand and supply constraints, suggesting a focus on companies with stable cash flows and high dividends [8] - Guotai Junan expects the Asian metallurgical coal market to continue recovering in Q3 2025, supported by inventory replenishment in India and potential rebounds in China [9] Group 8 - China Merchants Macro identifies September as a potential observation window for the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which could lead to a comprehensive revaluation of Chinese assets [17][18] - The report suggests that if the yuan returns to the 6 range, it would enhance the attractiveness of Chinese equities, particularly in consumer sectors [18]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of 伟仕佳杰 (00856) has seen a price increase of over 3% during trading, currently at 9.29 HKD with a trading volume of 86.90 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Business Performance - 天风证券 (601162) reports that 伟仕佳杰's Southeast Asia operations have diversified across nine countries, including Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia, focusing on GPU, AI infrastructure, and consumer electronics [1] - The projected revenue for the region in 2024 is expected to increase significantly by 74% year-on-year, with net profit contribution estimated at around 51% [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company is anticipated to benefit from three main drivers: rapid global demand for computing power, accelerated channel expansion in Southeast Asia, and the implementation of new directions such as electric vehicles and cross-border payments [1] - Forecasted net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 1.251 billion, 1.532 billion, and 1.883 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 30%, 22.4%, and 22.9% [1] Group 3: Valuation Outlook - Given the sustained high growth in global computing power, the accelerated digital infrastructure in Southeast Asia, and the successful diversification of the company's business, the current valuation is believed to have significant upside potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of 伟仕佳杰 (00856) has seen a price increase of over 3% during trading, currently at 9.29 HKD with a trading volume of 86.90 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Business Performance - 天风证券 reports that 伟仕佳杰's Southeast Asia business has established a diversified presence in nine countries, including Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia, focusing on GPU, AI infrastructure, and consumer electronics [1] - The projected revenue for the Southeast Asia region is expected to increase significantly by 74% year-on-year in 2024, with net profit contribution around 51% [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company is anticipated to benefit from three main drivers: rapid global demand for computing power, accelerated channel expansion in Southeast Asia, and the implementation of new directions such as electric vehicles and cross-border payments [1] - Forecasted net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 1.251 billion, 1.532 billion, and 1.883 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 30%, 22.4%, and 22.9% respectively [1] Group 3: Valuation Outlook - Given the sustained high growth in global computing power, accelerated digital infrastructure development in Southeast Asia, and the effectiveness of the company's diversified business layout, the current valuation of 伟仕佳杰 is believed to have significant upside potential [1]