看好PCB设备、AIDC设备、液冷设备、半导体设备等方向：(1)AI算力革命驱动PCB需求增长，AI服务 器带来的不仅是数量的增长，更是PCB单机价值量的显著提升，PCB设备及材料有望充分受益。 (2)AIDC设备：人工智能数据中心电源带动燃气轮机、核电、柴发需求向上。(3)AI算力加速升级，液冷 产业链空间广阔。AI拉动全球算力需求，高功率下传统风冷逼近散热极限，液冷将逐步成为主流方 案，液冷市场有望迎来爆发式增长。看好液冷核心部件及全链条解决方案供应商业绩释放。(4)AI需求 及国产替代逻辑牵引下，半导体设备行业有望迎来高速发展期。 AI赋能 具身智能机器人应用落地，主要考虑技术可实现性与成本效益：前者强调容错率高，执行速度/同步性 要求不高，可重复纠错，易于收集数据;后者强调能体现物体/任务/环境泛化性，能真正提高效率或降低 死伤率。该行看好中短期具身智能机器人在工业物流(仓储搬运分拣、缝纫、质检)、机构养老、特种环 境(转炉炼钢，石油化工，电力巡检)等应用，长期走进家庭。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，生成式AI的繁荣发展，已进入"AI时代"，AI将渗透各行 各业并产生深远影响。机械设备 ...

AI 时代，寻"机"智能 —— 机械设备行业十五五专题报告 首席分析师：鲁佩 分析师：贾新龙 分析师：王霞举 研究助理：彭星嘉 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 行业深度报告 · 机械设备行业 AI 时代，寻"机"智能 —— 机械设备行业十五五专题报告 2025 年 09 月 28 日 核心观点 机械设备行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 鲁佩 ：021-20257809 ：lupei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130521060001 贾新龙 ：021-20257807 ：jiaxinlong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070006 王霞举 ：021-68596817 ：wangxiaju_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070007 研究助理：彭星嘉 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025 年 09 月 26 日 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 银河证券机械行业 2025 中期策略报告：持续看好 新质 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **machinery industry**, with specific focus on **motorcycles**, **engineering machinery**, and **oil services**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Strategy for Second Half**: The company has developed a strategy for the second half of the year, focusing on a theme called "Value Vito," which emphasizes strong thematic directions rather than pure growth [1] 2. **Performance of Motorcycle Industry**: The motorcycle sector, led by companies like Chunfeng and Longxin, has shown significant price increases, outperforming other sectors such as machine tools [2] 3. **Engineering Machinery Growth**: The median growth rate for engineering machinery in the first half of the year was 7%, indicating a solid performance, although it did not significantly exceed the index [3] 4. **Sources of Excess Returns**: The excess returns in the machinery sector are attributed to two main factors: rapid industry growth and significant thematic catalysts [4] 5. **Investment Recommendations**: Key sectors recommended for investment include motorcycles, oil services, and engineering machinery, with a note that achieving accelerated growth in the second half may be challenging [5][6] 6. **Domestic vs. Export Growth**: Domestic growth rates are expected to be between 5% to 10%, while export growth may exceed 10%, indicating a more favorable outlook for exports [6] 7. **Impact of Fiscal Policy**: The issuance of local government bonds and subsidies is highlighted as a critical factor influencing the market, with a total subsidy of 300 billion expected for the year [7] 8. **Motorcycle Export Outlook**: The motorcycle export market is anticipated to accelerate in the second half, particularly due to the recovery from last year's low base and the potential benefits from the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement [13][14] 9. **Market Share Potential**: The current market share of Chinese motorcycles in regions like Europe and Latin America is low, suggesting significant growth potential in exports [14] 10. **Oil Services Sector**: The oil services sector is expected to remain robust, driven by global economic conditions and capital expenditures related to oil prices above $60 per barrel [10][11] 11. **Engineering Machinery Valuation**: The valuation of engineering machinery companies is seen as attractive, with significant differences in market capitalization compared to their overseas counterparts [16] 12. **Profit Growth Projections**: Companies like SANY are projected to see substantial profit growth, with estimates indicating a tripling of profits this year [17] 13. **Technological Advancements in Robotics**: The discussion includes advancements in robotics, particularly in humanoid robots and their applications in various sectors [22][30] 14. **Future of Solid-State Batteries**: The solid-state battery market is highlighted as a growing area, with significant technological advancements expected [33][35] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Domestic Growth**: The domestic machinery sector is facing challenges in achieving noticeable growth in the second half compared to the first half [6][8] 2. **Potential for Thematic Catalysts**: The importance of thematic catalysts in driving excess returns is emphasized, suggesting that investors should focus on sectors with strong thematic support [4] 3. **Long-Term Growth Potential**: The long-term growth potential in the motorcycle export market and the engineering machinery sector is noted, with specific reference to the low current market share in international markets [14][15] 4. **Valuation Comparisons**: The valuation of companies in the engineering machinery sector is compared to their historical valuations, indicating potential for upward adjustments [17][20] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the machinery industry.

Group 1 - The national electricity market is accelerating, with significant benefits expected for equipment manufacturers in the ultra-high voltage sector [1] - It is anticipated that 5-6 ultra-high voltage direct current lines, 3-4 ultra-high voltage alternating current lines, and 5-6 back-to-back projects will be approved within the year [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, an average of 6-7 ultra-high voltage projects is expected to commence annually, leading to a substantial increase in orders for core equipment manufacturers [1] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on investment opportunities in "AI + overseas expansion + satellites" in the medium to long term [2] - Key areas of interest include AI core directions such as optical modules and devices, as well as liquid cooling technologies [2] - The domestic recovery of the marine cable industry and favorable overseas expansion opportunities are highlighted, with a recommendation to actively monitor leading marine cable manufacturers [2] Group 3 - The white liquor industry is expected to show signs of improvement in performance starting from the third quarter of 2025, following a narrowing decline in sales during the recent Spring Festival [3] - Major white liquor companies are enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividends, buybacks, and shareholdings, which adds to investment safety margins [3] - Anticipated consumer stimulus policies and macroeconomic recovery are expected to support continued investment in leading liquor brands [3]

Market Performance - Major stock indices in China experienced a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.82% to 3369.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.72% to 10301.16 points, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 2.63% to 2064.71 points, alongside a total trading volume of 1341 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 120 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Trade Relations and Sector Impact - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to significantly lower bilateral tariff levels, which is expected to benefit sectors such as electric new energy and export chains, particularly in areas like the power battery supply chain and photovoltaic inverters [2][5] - The reduction in tariffs is anticipated to restore business for companies exporting to the US, especially those in the electric new energy sector, which had been adversely affected by previous tariff policies [2] PCB Demand and AI Sector - The easing of US-China tariffs is expected to alleviate pressure on the demand forecast for AI-related PCBs, with positive feedback from downstream ODM manufacturers indicating resilience in PCB demand [3] Gas Turbine Market - The global gas turbine market is entering an upcycle, driven by increased demand for natural gas power generation and the expansion of AIDC in North America, leading to a surge in orders for core components from Chinese manufacturers [4] Strategic Mineral Export Control - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, with a coordinated action plan involving multiple departments to prevent illegal outflows [6] Financial Support for Nansha Development - A joint opinion from several financial regulatory bodies emphasizes increased financial support for the development of Nansha, aiming to enhance its role in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and support high-end manufacturing industries [7] Brain-Computer Interface Industry Development - Sichuan province has launched an action plan to cultivate the brain-computer interface and human-computer interaction industries, targeting significant breakthroughs and the establishment of a robust industrial ecosystem by 2027 [8] Manus Product Launch - The AI Agent product Manus has announced its open access to all users, introducing a free task execution model and plans for a subscription service to accelerate commercialization [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric power equipment industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - The recent US-China trade talks have resulted in significant tariff reductions, which are expected to positively impact the electric new energy sector's exports to the US. Key affected areas include the power battery supply chain, photovoltaic inverters, energy storage batteries, AIDC equipment, grid equipment, consumer lithium batteries, and wind power components. These sectors are anticipated to experience a recovery and acceleration in shipments to the US starting from May [4][5][6]. - The agreement reached during the talks includes the US committing to cancel 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and modifying 34% of reciprocal tariffs, with a 90-day suspension on 24% of these tariffs. Similarly, China will cancel 91% of its retaliatory tariffs on US goods and suspend 24% of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Tariff Changes**: The US will cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China will cancel 91% of retaliatory tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [3][6]. - **Market Impact**: The agreement is expected to benefit companies in the electric new energy sector, particularly those involved in the power battery and energy storage battery supply chains, such as Ningde Times, Keda Li, and Xinjubang. Other companies to watch include Sunshine Power, Shenghong Co., and Megmeet [4][7]. - **Market Demand**: The US accounts for 10-15% of global power battery market demand, 30-40% of large energy storage market demand, and 10% of the global photovoltaic market demand. The successful conclusion of the trade talks is expected to enhance the short-term and long-term development prospects for various sectors [7].