Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [39]. Core Insights - The North Exchange market has shown a significant recovery, with the average daily trading volume of all A-shares reaching 19.51 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 40.6%. The North Index 50 rose by 2.79% during the same period [1][7]. - Key stocks that performed well include Tianli Composite (up 117.2%), Dapeng Industrial (up 51.1%), and Chicheng Co. (up 40.7%). Conversely, stocks with the largest declines included *ST Guandao (down 77.2%) and Hongxi Technology (down 12.4%) [1][16]. - Recent policy developments, including a meeting of the Central Political Bureau focusing on economic work for 2026 and the announcement allowing Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China, are expected to influence market sentiment positively [1][19][23]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The North Exchange's average daily trading volume reached 19.51 billion yuan, marking a 40.6% increase from the previous week. The North Index 50 saw a rise of 2.79%, with an average turnover rate of 2.6% [1][7][34]. Key News and Policies - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the importance of economic stability and growth for 2026, while the U.S. government's policy shift regarding AI chip sales to China is expected to impact market dynamics positively [19][23]. Core Driving Factors - The macroeconomic environment has improved, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and domestic policies focusing on enhancing capital market functions. This has led to increased risk appetite among investors [32][33]. - The performance of new stocks has been strong, with significant interest in newly listed companies, indicating a healthy market for initial public offerings [33]. Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Future investment strategies should focus on three areas: the value of weight stocks in the North Index 50, companies with strong performance and R&D investment, and sectors benefiting from policy support such as commercial aerospace and humanoid robots [2][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A shares fluctuated last week, with the communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors performing well. It is recommended to allocate in a balanced and growth - biased style, emphasizing technology - growth style funds and also considering large - finance and pro - cyclical assets [1][3][4]. - In the stock market, China's stock market is expected to enter a cross - year offensive, and the index will take a new step upwards. In the bond market, it is expected that credit risks will be generally controllable in 2026, and the rhythm of low spreads and high volatility may continue [14][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review - **A - share Market**: A shares fluctuated last week (20251208 - 20251212). The communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors performed well. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.34% to 3889.35, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 13258.33. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 9 industries rose and 22 fell. The top - performing industries were communication, national defense and military industry, electronics, machinery, and power equipment, with weekly increases of 6.27%, 2.8%, 2.63%, 1.38%, and 1.19% respectively [6][7]. - **Bond Market**: The bond market rose. On December 10, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the November 2025 price data. The CPI rebounded to 0.7% year - on - year, and the PPI fell to - 2.2% year - on - year. The overall price level still needed to be boosted. The new progress of Vanke's bond extension drove the bond market to recover and rise. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds and national development bonds all declined [8]. - **US Stock Market**: US stocks fluctuated. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut on Wednesday, which was in line with market expectations. However, on Friday, negative news from two major technology giants, Broadcom and Oracle, triggered concerns about the AI bubble again. Coupled with some Fed officials' opposition to easing monetary policy, the technology sector was under significant pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.63%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.62% [6][9]. - **Commodity Market**: Oil prices fell, and gold and silver prices rose. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that by 2026, the global oil supply would exceed demand by 381.5 million barrels per day. The energy index fell 6.42%, and the prices of various oil products declined. The precious metals index rose 2.38%, with COMEX gold rising 2.05% and COMEX silver rising 5.13% [9]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - **Stock - type Funds**: Stock - type funds rose 0.38% last week. Some funds heavily invested in overseas computing power, chip semiconductors, and other sectors performed well. Index funds related to communication equipment, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors performed well [6][10][11]. - **Bond - type Funds**: Bond - type funds rose 0.07% last week. Among them, partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity assets in sectors such as electronics and military industry performed well [10][11]. - **QDII Funds**: Among QDII funds, those mainly investing in the global technology field performed well. Equity - type QDII funds fell 1% last week, and QDII bond - type funds fell 0.07% [12]. - **Other Funds**: The annualized yield of money funds was 1.21%. Gold ETFs and their linked funds rose 0.8%, and commodity - type funds rose 0.84% [12][13]. 3. Future Investment Strategy - **Macro - situation**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, and it is expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in 2026. The Fed chair's replacement may affect the pace of interest rate cuts. It is predicted that US bond yields will first decline and then rise in 2026, and US stocks will still have continuous support [14]. - **Stock Market**: China's stock market will enter a cross - year offensive, and the index will take a new step upwards. It is recommended to focus on technology, securities, and some consumer sectors [14][15]. - **Bond Market**: In 2026, it is expected that credit risks will be generally controllable, and the rhythm of low spreads and high volatility may continue. It is recommended to mainly focus on short - and medium - term credit sinking to dig for coupons and pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - and long - term bonds at phased highs caused by events or policy shocks [15][16]. - **Fund Investment**: For stock - hybrid funds, it is recommended to allocate in a balanced and growth - biased style, emphasizing technology - growth style funds and also considering large - finance and pro - cyclical assets. For bond funds, it is recommended to focus on flexible fixed - income products. For money funds, there are no trending investment opportunities. For commodity funds, gold ETFs can be appropriately allocated [4][17]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments - **Regulatory Policy**: The regulatory authorities issued the "Draft for Soliciting Opinions on the Code of Conduct for the Sale of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", aiming to standardize the fund sales behaviors of fund companies' direct sales and agency sales institutions [18]. - **Industry Development**: The public fund index - enhancement business has entered a fast - track development. As of December 10, 168 new index - enhancement funds have been established this year, with a total new - issuance scale of over 92 billion yuan, exceeding the total new - issuance of index - enhancement products in the past three years [20]. - **New Fund Products**: 23 new funds were established last week, with an average subscription period of about 13 days and an average raised share of 792 million shares, with a total raised share of 18.218 billion shares [21]. - **Fund Dividends**: 84 funds will conduct equity registration in the coming week. The most notable one is Huashang Advantage Industry A, which will distribute a dividend of 2.347 yuan per 10 shares [22].

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a cross-year rally supported by new policy deployments, with a focus on maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range and enhancing market confidence through policy incentives [4][22][26] - Major A-share indices mostly rose this week, with the ChiNext Index, Sci-Tech 50, and CSI 500 leading in gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 saw declines [1][13][15] - The current valuation levels of indices such as Sci-Tech 50 and Wind All A are relatively high, with their PE (TTM) percentile ranks exceeding 80% as of December 12, 2025 [1][14][27] Group 2 - The central economic work conference emphasized a stable yet progressive approach, continuing with a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to support domestic economic growth [2][42][26] - Economic data shows that the social financing scale increased by 8.5% year-on-year as of the end of November, indicating reasonable growth in financial totals, while the CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year [43][44] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with TMT likely to lead in a liquidity-driven market, while advanced manufacturing may take precedence in a fundamentals-driven market [32][38][4] Group 3 - The report indicates a significant divergence in industry performance, with sectors such as telecommunications, defense, and electronics showing strong gains, while coal, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate faced declines [15][54] - The market is currently experiencing notable volatility due to a combination of domestic and international events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the release of key economic data [3][18][45] - Historical patterns suggest that the A-share market tends to perform well in the opening years of the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans, indicating a potential for positive performance in 2026 as well [26][28]

Macro and Strategy Research - CPI in November 2025 shows a significant increase in vegetable and gold prices, while travel chain prices decline due to seasonal demand drop and OPEC+ production increases affecting energy prices [2] - The forecast for December indicates CPI growth around 0.5% year-on-year, with an expected annual CPI growth of approximately 0% for 2025 [3] - PPI in November 2025 shows an expanded year-on-year decline, with a stable month-on-month increase, driven by seasonal demand in coal and gas, and a narrowing decline in prices for solar equipment and lithium-ion battery manufacturing [3] A-Share Market Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.14% over the past five trading days [4] - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in exports to Japan, South Korea, and the EU, indicating an ongoing optimization of export structure [5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes a proactive macro policy for 2026, focusing on building a strong domestic market and fostering new growth drivers [5] Industry Research - The approval for NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China is expected to alleviate supply issues for domestic cloud computing firms, while domestic chip companies are likely to accelerate product development through financing [7][8] - Alibaba's establishment of the Qianwen C-end business group aims to create a "super app," indicating a strategic push towards AI applications in consumer-facing products [7] - The investment opportunities in the TMT sector and robotics are highlighted due to ongoing capital expansion by domestic and international cloud vendors and the anticipated growth in AI application demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's Q3 FY2026 performance is exceptional, with revenue reaching $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by data center revenue of $51.2 billion, which grew 66% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. Financial Performance - Operating profit surged 65% to $36 billion, with an impressive operating margin of 63.1% [2]. - Despite strong earnings, the stock initially rose 5% post-announcement but later fell approximately 3% [3]. Market Sentiment and Concerns - CEO Jensen Huang highlighted a "bubble perception" issue, where any earnings miss is viewed as evidence of an AI bubble, even if results exceed expectations [5]. - The gross margin declined to 73.4% from 74.6% year-over-year, indicating a downward trend, although management expects it to stabilize around 70% [5]. - The projected earnings per share growth rate for FY2027 is about 59%, significantly lower than the triple-digit growth rates of the past two years [5]. Policy Changes and Market Opportunities - A new policy allows Nvidia to export advanced H200 AI chips to China, contingent on a 25% additional fee to the U.S. government, potentially unlocking a $50 billion market [5][6]. - This market entry could lead to revenue growth that exceeds current expectations, helping to alleviate concerns about slowing growth in the coming years [6]. Industry Dynamics and Risks - AI applications are still in their early stages, with significant technological transformations underway, including the shift from CPU to GPU computing and the rise of large language models [6]. - However, the commercialization of AI services has not kept pace with infrastructure investments, reminiscent of the 1999 internet bubble [7]. - Major AI service providers have yet to achieve profitability, with OpenAI and Anthropic projecting significant losses for years to come [7]. Customer Concentration and Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's revenue is highly concentrated, with four major customers accounting for 61% of revenue, raising significant risks if any major client reduces spending [7][8]. - Competition is intensifying, with AMD and Intel developing chips that could erode Nvidia's pricing power [8]. Growth Projections and Market Sentiment - Nvidia's revenue growth is projected to slow from 114% in FY2025 to 60% in FY2026, with further declines expected in FY2027 and FY2028 [9]. - Current market sentiment is overly optimistic, with 37 firms rating Nvidia as a "buy" and only one as "hold," indicating potential bubble conditions [9]. Conclusion on Valuation and Future Outlook - While Nvidia maintains a leading position and strong demand, its stock price reflects high expectations for flawless management execution [10]. - Analysts suggest a "hold" rating, as the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable at current valuations, despite potential for further price increases [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the computer industry and an "Accumulate" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [28] Core Insights - The approval for NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China is expected to alleviate some supply constraints faced by domestic cloud computing companies [12] - Alibaba has established the Qianwen C-end business group, aiming to create a "super app" that serves as the primary entry point for users in the AI era [12] - Baidu is evaluating the spin-off and IPO of Kunlun Chip, with plans to submit an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as Q1 2026 [13] - The AI application sector is experiencing rapid growth, driven by major internet companies accelerating their C-end smart applications [27] - The AI computing power industry is expected to maintain high prosperity, supported by the maturation of the domestic computing power industry chain [27] Industry News - The U.S. government will allow NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China, with shipments starting in 2024. The H200 chip is designed for training and running AI models and offers significant performance improvements over its predecessor [12] - Alibaba's Qianwen C-end business group aims to integrate various services into a single app, enhancing user accessibility to AI technologies [12] - Baidu's Kunlun Chip, which focuses on general AI chip design, has shown rapid business growth and is preparing for a potential IPO [13] Industry Data - The rental prices for computing power remain stable, with specific configurations priced as follows: - V100-32GB*8 at 66.63 CNY/hour - A100-40GB*8 at 161.50 CNY/hour - A100-80GB*1 at 5.95 CNY/hour - A800-80GB*1 at 7.50 CNY/hour [14][15] Market Review - From December 4 to December 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.34%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry Index increased by 1.13%. Most sub-sectors within the computer industry saw gains, with vertical application software leading at 2.45% [20][21] Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the growth potential of AI applications driven by technological advancements and market demand. It suggests focusing on leading companies with strong capabilities in AI technology implementation and scene adaptation [27][28]

Group 1: REITs Market Analysis - The current REITs market has experienced a correction, leading to reasonable valuations, making it attractive for long-term investors to seize quality project opportunities during adjustments [1][6] - It is recommended to focus on two main lines based on Q3 performance: sectors with strong fundamentals such as data centers and affordable rental housing, and REITs expected to see quarter-on-quarter performance improvement in Q4, benefiting from events like the National Day holiday and "Double Eleven" promotions [1][6] - A significant unlocking of strategic placement shares is anticipated in November-December 2025, with a monthly unlocking scale exceeding 1 billion shares, creating structural entry opportunities despite short-term liquidity pressures on some quality targets [6][8] Group 2: Public Fund Investment Strategy - In 2025, the public fund scale and share both increased, but the structure changed, with fixed income and index equity experiencing net subscriptions, while fixed income and active equity faced net redemptions [2][11] - The outlook for 2026 suggests continued upward potential for equities, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced allocation between growth and reversal strategies, adapting flexibly to short-term opportunities [2][11] - A global multi-asset allocation approach is advised, with a focus on selecting products from various sub-strategies [11][12] Group 3: Wind Power Industry Outlook - The wind power industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with two main stock selection lines identified: strong performance in wind turbine bidding prices and the potential for significant growth in domestic and overseas wind power demand [3][17] - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines has shown a continuous increase, with a year-on-year rise of 6.86% for onshore turbines and 9.78% for onshore turbines including towers [17][19] - Domestic offshore wind projects are progressing smoothly, with expectations for high growth in installation capacity from 2025 to 2026, and overseas offshore wind demand is also robust, indicating significant growth opportunities [18][19] Group 4: North Exchange Market Development - The North Exchange has achieved significant growth, with the number of listed companies reaching 280 and total market capitalization exceeding 900 billion yuan, indicating its role as a core platform for innovative small and medium enterprises [4][21] - The market is expected to enter a new cycle of high-quality expansion in 2026, shifting focus from scale expansion to quality improvement, with anticipated policy dividends and enhanced market functions [21][22] - Investors are encouraged to identify investment opportunities arising from policy releases and to focus on specialized and innovative enterprises with high technical barriers and R&D investments [22]

Core Viewpoint - Apple's previous hesitation in announcing its AI strategy has shifted from a disadvantage to an advantage, positively impacting its stock performance as scrutiny on AI investments increases [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - In the first half of 2025, Apple's stock fell by 18% but later surged by 35%, outperforming major competitors like Meta and Microsoft, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose by 10% and 13%, respectively [1][4]. - Apple's current market capitalization stands at $4.1 trillion, making it the second-largest by weight in the S&P 500, surpassing Microsoft and approaching Nvidia [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Apple has avoided the AI arms race and the associated massive capital expenditures, positioning itself as a "defensive" stock amid rising AI investment concerns [2][5]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for Apple is approximately 33 times, a level seen only a few times in the past 15 years, with the average P/E ratio being below 19 times [2][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Investors view Apple as a safe haven amid concerns about potential AI investment bubbles, with its consumer-facing business model remaining robust [6][7]. - Despite a high valuation, analysts suggest that Apple's long-term outlook remains bullish, although some express concerns about whether the current stock price reflects excessive premiums for its defensive characteristics [5][6].

Core Insights - The report highlights the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' investment activities, aimed at enhancing their long-term investment management capabilities and supporting the real economy [6][7][9] - The adjustments include differentiated risk factor settings based on holding periods for specific stock indices and insurance business types, promoting the use of insurance capital in the market [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of insurance capital as a stabilizing factor in the capital market, especially during periods of economic uncertainty and market volatility [10][11] Summary by Sections Economic News - The U.S. government has allowed NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China, with a 25% revenue share for the U.S. [2] - The Federal Reserve has a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 68.5% by January [2] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3.3464 trillion, up by $3 billion from October [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has established legislative contact points to enhance market participation in capital market legislation [2] - The National Taxation Bureau reported a 10.7% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment purchases by enterprises [2] Important Company News - Xintai received approval for clinical trials of its innovative drug SAL0140 for primary aldosteronism [5] - Honghua Digital plans to acquire 49% of Shandong Yingkejie, aiming for full ownership [5] - PIANO's major shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary stock suspension [5] - Rongsheng Petrochemical is transferring its 100% stake in Rongsheng Energy to its controlling shareholder [5] - Moore Threads will hold its first developer conference to unveil its new GPU architecture [5] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report discusses the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies, focusing on long-term investments in major stock indices and supporting foreign trade enterprises [6][7][9] - Specific adjustments include lowering risk factors for stocks held over three years and two years, as well as for export credit insurance [8] - The report suggests that these changes will enhance the efficiency of insurance capital and improve investment returns, benefiting the overall performance of insurance companies [10][11]