风险提示及免责条款 OpenAI计划2026年发布第一款设备。（Axios） 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current environment of the Hong Kong stock market mirrors that of early 2025, with a potential for significant investment opportunities driven by AI applications despite weak overseas liquidity expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market is at a critical juncture, similar to early 2025, where liquidity expectations are limited due to the Federal Reserve's policies, while AI applications are poised for explosive growth [2][3]. - Recent U.S. inflation data, although below expectations, has not reached a level that would prompt an immediate shift in Federal Reserve policy, indicating limited improvement in liquidity for the Hong Kong market [3]. Group 2: AI Value Reassessment - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for the reassessment of AI value in China for 2026, supported by a solid industrial catalyst timeline [6]. - The release of DeepSeek V4 during the Chinese New Year is expected to replicate last year's market surge, with increased capital expenditure from major domestic companies providing a robust foundation for model capabilities [6]. Group 3: Application Layer Developments - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the application layer of AI, with significant advancements expected from platform-based internet companies in China [7]. - Alibaba's AI assistant "Qianwen app" has achieved over 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, marking a shift from model-based to application-based AI strategies [7]. Group 4: Intelligent Driving - Intelligent driving is identified as the largest AI application expected to scale in 2026, driven by significant developments in both domestic and international markets [8]. - The combination of Tesla's FSD and Grok enhances driving experiences, while regulatory changes in the U.S. signal the imminent large-scale operation of Robotaxi services [8]. Group 5: Market Data and Fund Flows - Recent fund flows indicate strong investor preference for leading technology platforms, with Tencent, Kuaishou, and Xiaomi receiving substantial net inflows [9]. - As of January 16, 2026, the Hang Seng Index PE has risen to 11.7 times, reflecting a 1.66% increase from the previous week, while Alibaba and SMIC have shown significant stock price increases, validating the positive outlook for platform companies and hardware infrastructure [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market pullback may present an excellent "buying opportunity," with Goldman Sachs analysts asserting that Microsoft is the best investment choice to leverage the AI product cycle for compounded growth [2] Group 1: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts Microsoft's earnings per share (EPS) will steadily reach $35 by fiscal year 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% [2] - The current market panic may serve as an entry point for investors, as Microsoft is establishing its dominance in the AI era through flexible infrastructure and unique profit margin advantages [2] Group 2: AI Cycle and Profitability - Microsoft’s management highlighted that the current AI cycle mirrors the early cloud cycle, where high initial costs were followed by significant profit margin expansion due to scale effects and efficiency improvements [3] - The company believes its leadership in the AI cycle is even stronger than during the cloud cycle, driven by operational discipline and rapid efficiency gains [3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI provides a unique gross margin advantage, as it does not incur additional API costs for using OpenAI models, creating a significant competitive edge over other software providers [4] - Microsoft is redefining the role of large language models (LLMs) as the next generation of abstraction layers, which will shift applications from hard-coded rules to intent-driven execution [4] Group 4: Infrastructure Strategy - Microsoft has demonstrated strong strategic resolve by rejecting the "bring your own chip" (BYOC) model, which could isolate infrastructure stacks and undermine core profit drivers [6] - The company’s profit advantage stems from optimizing the entire stack of data centers, power, cooling, networking, and silicon, rather than focusing on individual components [6] Group 5: Market Demand Trends - There is a noticeable shift in enterprise customer discussions regarding AI adoption, moving from "whether to adopt" to "when and to what extent to expand" [7] - Microsoft has observed widespread adoption of enterprise AI, with customers typically starting with pilot programs and rapidly scaling up as familiarity increases [7] - The company has adjusted its sales incentives to focus on accelerating customer value realization rather than merely pricing, indicating a shift towards deeper ecosystem engagement [7]

"考虑到你的国家决定不授予我诺贝尔和平奖……我不再感到有义务纯粹考虑和平，尽管和 平永远是我的首要目标，但现在我可以考虑什么对美利坚合众国有利、合乎情理。除非我们 完全彻底控制格陵兰，否则世界不安全。" Støre周一上午证实收到了这条短信。此前他曾向特朗普发送短信，抗议美国对挪威和其他向格陵兰派 遣军队的欧洲国家征收关税。据PBS新闻报道，特朗普的这条短信随后被转发至"多个"驻华盛顿的欧洲 使馆。 特朗普质疑丹麦对格陵兰主权 特朗普在短信中重申其对丹麦控制格陵兰合法性的质疑，尽管美国曾在多项条约中承认丹麦对格陵兰岛 的主权，其中包括1916-1917年关于出售丹麦西印度群岛的公约。 他在致Støre的短信中写道： 美国总统特朗普在致挪威首相的短信中，将其对格陵兰的领土诉求与未能获得诺贝尔和平奖直接关联， 声称不再有义务"纯粹考虑和平"，而将优先考虑美国利益。 据央视新闻，当地时间1月17日，美总统特朗普发文称，将对8个反对其收购格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征 10%的关税。自2026年6月1日起，加征关税的税率将提高至25%。他表示，这一关税措施将持续实施， 直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。 1月19日， ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP surpassed 140 trillion yuan, achieving a year-on-year growth of 5%, successfully meeting the government's growth target despite complex external conditions and domestic supply-demand contradictions [1] - The industrial production, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, showed strong resilience, with exports exceeding expectations and becoming a key driver of economic growth [1] Production Sector - Industrial production was a major highlight in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in December for large-scale industrial added value, and high-tech manufacturing value growing by 11%, more than double the overall industrial growth rate [5] - Specific products like industrial robots and integrated circuits saw significant production increases of 14.7% and 12.9%, respectively, indicating the strengthening role of new productive forces in the economy [5] - The supply-side structure is changing due to "anti-involution" policies, leading to a reduction in blind expansion in some industries, with solar cell production growth dropping from 18.2% in the first half to -9.7% in December [7] Export Performance - The export value of large-scale industrial products increased by 2.2% year-on-year in 2025, with notable performance in equipment manufacturing sectors such as railways, ships, and aerospace [7] Consumption Sector - The consumption market exhibited a structural characteristic where services outperformed goods, with service retail sales growing by 5.5% compared to goods retail [9] - The "old-for-new" policy showed mixed effects, with communication equipment retail sales surging by 20.9% in December, while categories like home appliances and automobiles faced demand pressure, declining by 18.7% and 5%, respectively [9][10] - There is a noticeable trend of consumption downshifting, with rural retail sales growing by 1.7%, surpassing urban growth of 0.7% [9] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% in 2025, with real estate development investment dropping by 17.2%. However, signs of stabilization in real estate sales were observed, with a narrowing decline in December for both sales value and area [11] - Equipment renewal investment grew by 11.8%, supported by special government bonds, marking a structural highlight in the investment sector [11] Outlook for 2026 - The market anticipates a "good start" for 2026, driven by the continued effects of the "old-for-new" policy, proactive government bond issuance, and the release of delayed policies [11] - The focus will shift towards deeper economic structural transformation, emphasizing consumption over investment and technology over traditional manufacturing [11]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that 2026 will be a strategic turning point for Chinese internet giants, with increased investment in consumer-facing AI and competition around "AI super entry" while focusing on defending their core market positions [1] Group 1: Industry Transition - The industry transition in 2026 is fundamentally driven by ByteDance's comprehensive breakthroughs, which are reshaping competitive dynamics [2] - ByteDance is projected to achieve a profit of $50 billion in 2025, significantly surpassing Tencent's $36 billion and Alibaba's $15 billion [2] - In the AI sector, ByteDance's Doubao app has over 100 million daily active users and is the leading consumer-level AI application in China [2] Group 2: Strategic Responses from Giants - In response to ByteDance's advancements, Alibaba and Tencent are compelled to pivot their strategies, increasing AI investments to over $60 billion collectively by 2026 [3] - Alibaba aims to maintain its leading position in e-commerce GMV, while Tencent accelerates AI features in WeChat and explores social AI applications through QQ [3] - The competitive landscape is expected to rationalize, improving unit economics in sectors like food delivery [3] Group 3: Key AI Themes Restructuring the Industry - Six key AI themes identified by Goldman Sachs will reshape the industry ecosystem in 2026, including advertising transformation, model competition, and the emergence of consumer AI entry points [4] - The advertising budget is shifting towards ROI-driven ads, with new strategies like AEO and GEO gaining traction [4] - The competition in AI models is intensifying, focusing on long context, multi-modal, and low-cost architectures [4] Group 4: Investment Framework - The investment landscape is shifting from a "broad market rally" to an "alpha era" focused on selective stock picking, emphasizing EPS delivery/growth, AI, and globalization narratives [6] - Companies benefiting from improving order trends and rationalized competition, such as Alibaba and JD.com, are highlighted for their potential in profit growth [7] - The focus is also on AI technology breakthroughs and global business expansion, with companies like Kuaishou and Baidu identified as key players [8] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - Companies with stable cash flows and strong shareholder return capabilities are prioritized, particularly those with sufficient net cash and potential for dividend increases [9]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is reportedly planning to redefine mobile connectivity boundaries with the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro series by introducing 5G satellite communication capabilities, marking a significant technological leap in smartphone hardware competition [1] Group 1: Satellite Communication Functionality - The new "satellite 5G" feature is expected to expand the application of satellite communication from emergency rescue to daily communication, providing real-time connectivity beyond terrestrial cellular network coverage [1][2] - Unlike the current "satellite emergency SOS" function, which is limited to sending text messages in no-signal areas, the new feature will support voice calls and data transmission with bandwidth capabilities increasing from kilobits (Kbps) to megabits (Mbps) and even gigabits (Gbps) [1][3] Group 2: Technical Specifications and Upgrades - The current satellite emergency SOS function is constrained by low bandwidth, allowing only minimal data transmission, while the new 5G satellite communication technology is expected to break the kilobit per second (Kbps) transmission barrier, significantly enhancing user experience [3] - This upgrade is anticipated to elevate the market positioning of the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, providing users with true communication freedom in areas lacking ground network coverage [3] Group 3: Commercialization and Operator Collaboration - The commercialization of the "satellite 5G" feature will depend heavily on partnerships with telecom operators, contrasting with the current emergency SOS feature that is not charged to customers [4] - Apple may need to establish close collaborations with domestic and international operators, and the initial rollout of this feature may be limited to specific regions, with potential costs depending on agreements with local operators [4]

In t e 45 6 . > . 8 / k A r . . . A / . 1. s / A 1. Q / P 编辑 ｜ 周智宇 2026年伊始，在华硕年末联欢晚会上，华硕集团董事长施崇棠的表态，为这家PC巨头近23年的手机征程正式画上了句点。 施崇棠直言，华硕Zenfone、ROG Phone双品牌从2026年起停止推出新机，不再增加新机种。 他表示，华硕此举目的在于更合理地配置研发资源，重点聚焦 PC 以及各类实体 AI（Physical AI）设备等关键领域。 在技术飞速发展的齿轮下，不少手机品牌都掉队或退场了，海外有诺基亚、黑莓、爱立信、LG、西门子、夏普等，国内则有美图手机、夏新、金立、锤子 手机、乐视手机等。 尽管在细分市场表现尚可，但华硕手机业务营收占比逐年下滑（2016年约18%，2023年仅1%），且始终未能盈利，逐渐被主流市场边缘化。2018年第四季 度，华硕曾因手机部门计提超过62亿新台币的巨额损失，导致当年整体盈利大幅下滑。 据IDC数据，2025年，华硕手机全年出货只有十几万部，且市场有一半集中在亚太区域。 十几万部是什么水平？作为对比，去年全年，中国市场排名第五的OPPO也有超 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is shifting focus from the defense and real estate sectors to broader economic areas, increasing regulatory pressure on major U.S. banks, raising concerns among investors about potential restrictions on capital return plans [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Pressure on Banks - Major banks may become the next target for regulatory actions following Trump's pressure on defense contractors and homebuilders to limit stock buybacks, leading to heightened concerns about policy risks for bank stocks [1][2]. - The government's direct intervention tools over the banking sector are more pronounced compared to other industries, as banks' dividend payments and stock buyback capabilities are already constrained by regulatory limits and capital adequacy requirements [1][5]. - The potential restriction on buybacks could directly impact investor return expectations, as buybacks are a key reason many investors favor bank stocks due to their ability to return capital and support share prices [1][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Precedents - The significant scale of stock buybacks by major banks, totaling over $500 billion in the past decade, makes them susceptible to populist policies, with political pressure mounting against such capital return behaviors [3]. - Trump's recent actions demonstrate a willingness and capability to intervene in corporate capital allocation, as seen with his executive order prohibiting defense contractors from paying dividends or repurchasing stock until they meet production standards [4]. - Similar pressures are being applied to the real estate sector, with scrutiny on homebuilders' buyback activities amid record profits, indicating a broader trend of regulatory tightening across industries [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Role and Uncertainty - The Federal Reserve's regulatory authority over major banks provides Trump with a significant leverage point to disrupt capital plans, as banks' ability to pay dividends and conduct buybacks is contingent on regulatory capital rules [5][6]. - Trump's disregard for the independence of the Federal Reserve could enhance his influence over regulatory policies, potentially leading to shifts in the regulatory landscape that could affect banks' capital return strategies [6]. - Historical data shows that banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have achieved annualized returns of 22% from stock buybacks over the past decade, but these past performance metrics are now facing unprecedented policy challenges due to potential regulatory changes [6].

Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 392 million yuan in 2025, a dramatic decline of 71% compared to 1.341 billion yuan in 2024, with revenue dropping from 5.217 billion yuan to 3.038 billion yuan, a decrease of 42% [1][2] - The non-recurring net profit is also projected to be 381 million yuan, reflecting a 71% decline, indicating that the performance drop is due to core business challenges rather than one-off losses [2] Industry Context - The company attributes its performance decline to a deep adjustment in the liquor industry, influenced by macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, with traditional business dining scenarios recovering slowly and high inventory levels persisting [2][3] - The high inventory levels suggest significant pressure on channels, as distributors face excess stock, which limits the company's ability to ship products, explaining why revenue decline (42%) is greater than net profit decline (71%) due to the dual pressure on gross margins and expense ratios [2] Inventory and Channel Management - The company has implemented a series of inventory control measures, including moderating shipment pace, optimizing inventory structure, and ensuring channel financial safety, prioritizing channel health [3] - While these measures may improve channel inventory quality and stabilize pricing, there are concerns about whether they can restore channel confidence during an industry downturn [3][4] Strategic Investments - Despite the significant drop in performance, the company emphasizes maintaining investments in brand building, terminal expansion, product innovation, and organizational capabilities while also optimizing expense efficiency [5] - The rising expense ratio is inevitable given the 42% revenue decline, suggesting that the effectiveness of the company's expense optimization efforts may be limited [5] Future Outlook - The company stresses the importance of laying a healthy foundation for future growth, but investors are concerned about the timeline for recovery [6] - Key uncertainties include when the industry cycle will bottom out, how long it will take to digest channel inventory, the stability of the pricing system, and the challenges of regaining lost market share [6][7][8] Investor Considerations - Investors should monitor the company's first-quarter performance, channel inventory data, pricing stability, changes in competitive dynamics, and trends in expense ratios to gauge the effectiveness of the company's adjustments [9]