高盛认为，美国私人投资组合中的黄金配置处于历史低位，为金价在未来一年半内冲击每盎司4900美元的目标创造了巨大空间。 据追风交易台，高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven在最新报告中指出，美国黄金ETF目前仅占私人非现金金融投资组合的 0.17%，较2012年峰值水平低约6个基点。这一配置比例远低于花旗、瑞银、桥水等机构建议的中高个位数百分比配置。 高盛估算，美国金融投资组合中黄金份额每增加1个基点——由增量投资者购买而非价格上涨驱动——将推动金价上涨约1.4%。分 析师表示，如果多元化资金流动从央行扩展至私人投资者，其4900美元的金价目标面临"显著上行风险"。 截至目前，现货黄金报4213.2美元/盎司，日内跌0.36%，本周呈现反弹趋势。 根据13F文件数据，在管理超过1亿美元资产的美国大型机构投资者中，不到一半持有任何黄金ETF敞口。即使在持有黄金的机构 中，配置比例通常也仅为0.1%至0.5%。 据2025年第三季度13F文件数据，美国机构投资者的黄金参与率为46%，高于2020年学术研究中约30%的水平。在有黄金敞口的机构 中，等权重平均配置为1.7%，而价值加权平均配置为0 ...

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank's report on the European technology hardware industry for 2026 identifies six major themes: memory shortages, AI squeezing mainstream components, accelerated penetration of optoelectronics, upgrades in advanced packaging, transformation of 800V power architecture, and the resurgence of edge AI growth [1] Memory Shortage and WFE Spending - The memory shortage has escalated from a component risk to a macro concern, with DRAM spot prices surging by 300-400% and NAND flash prices increasing by 200% over the past three months [2] - The contract prices are also rising rapidly, with expectations of a further 30-50% increase in DRAM and NAND contract prices in the first half of 2026 as channel inventories deplete [2] - This shortage is projected to persist until 2027, driving unexpected growth in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending, particularly benefiting DRAM-related equipment companies [2] AI Spending and Component Pressure - The explosive growth in AI spending is intensifying supply constraints for key components, impacting low to mid-range smartphones and PCs [3] - Companies like Realme may need to raise smartphone prices by 20-30% due to rising memory costs, while Dell's COO noted unprecedented cost increases [3] - The automotive sector is less affected due to independent production lines, but network equipment manufacturers like Nokia and Ericsson may face component supply pressures [3] Optoelectronics and Data Centers - The demand for bandwidth in AI data centers is driving optoelectronics and photonics technologies to become core growth engines [4] - AI data centers are expected to transition to high-speed pluggable optical modules and linear pluggable optics (LPO) to achieve lower power consumption and latency [4] - Companies like Tower Semi plan to significantly increase silicon photonics production capacity, targeting $900 million in sales by 2026 [4] Testing and Advanced Packaging - The complexity of AI accelerators is increasing, making testing and advanced packaging critical growth points in the semiconductor supply chain [7] - TSMC plans to expand AI testing capacity at an 80% CAGR from 2022 to 2026, while OSATs are also ramping up production to alleviate capacity constraints [7] - The transition to 3D packaging is underway, with Apple planning to adopt TSMC's 3D packaging solution in high-end laptops by 2026 [7] 800V Power Architecture Transformation - NVIDIA is leading the shift from 48V to 800V power architecture in AI data centers, presenting opportunities for gallium nitride (GaN) devices [8] - The 800V architecture improves efficiency and reduces copper cable usage, with significant market potential for GaN and silicon carbide (SiC) technologies [8] - The AI processor power consumption is expected to rise from 7GW in 2023 to 70GW by 2030, creating a substantial market for power semiconductors [8] Edge AI Growth - Edge AI is anticipated to experience moderate growth in 2026, emerging as a significant new growth point in the technology hardware industry [10] - Applications in automotive ADAS, video surveillance, and industrial control are becoming core use cases for edge AI [10] - The market for edge AI devices is projected to reach $103 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 21% from 2025 to 2030 [11]

此外，包括几家欧盟内部车企在内的制造商希望将英国和土耳其等拥有大型制造中心的国家纳入本土含 量的计算阈值，以避免供应链断裂。 供应链与能源行业的反向博弈 面对汽车制造巨头关于供应链中断风险的集体示警，欧盟推迟了原定于本周发布的针对关键工业产品的 严苛本土化采购新规，但在成员国和企业间引发严重分歧。 据华尔街见闻此前消息，媒体报道称欧盟计划推出《工业加速法》，要求关键商品（如汽车、电池等） 达到最高70%的"欧洲制造"本地含量标准。该政策通过政府补贴和公共采购激励措施实施。欧盟委员会 官员称，本地采购规则在1月28日正式公布前仍可能会下调。 汽车制造商警告称，复杂的本地采购规则可能扰乱供应链并拖慢电动车转型进程，而零部件供应商和新 能源企业则力挺新规。宝马首席执行官Oliver Zipse表示，设定复杂的本地采购规则"极度危险"，因为计 算过程"极其繁琐"，欧洲可能因此被"排除在全球创新竞赛之外"。 该政策在欧盟内部和产业界引发强烈争议。法国是本地采购策略的最大支持者，但成员国和企业在规则 设计和实施方式上存在分歧。业界担忧该政策可能使企业每年增加超过100亿欧元成本，削弱市场竞争 力。 车企怒斥：这是在扼杀创 ...

| Benchmark | Description | GPT-S.2 | Gemini 3 Pro | Gemini 2.5 Pro | Claude Sonnet 4.5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Humanity's Last Exam | Academic reasoning | 67.4% | 37.5% | 21.6% | 13.7% | | ARC-AGI-2 | Visual reasoning puzzies | 62.2% | 31.1% | 4.9% | 13.6% | | GPQA Diamond | Sclentific knowledge | 95.8% | 91.9% | 86.4% | 83.4% | | AIME 2025 (No tools) | Mathematics | 100% | 95.0% | 88.0% | 87.0% | | AIME 2025 (With code) | | 100% | 100% | - | 100% | | MathArena Apex | Chalienging Math Con ...

Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing unprecedented supply-demand tension, with DRAM shortages expected to last until Q1 2027 and NAND shortages until Q3 2026, driven by a significant increase in demand, particularly from AI servers [1][2][6]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - DRAM demand is projected to grow by 20.7%, significantly outpacing supply growth of 18.6% [2]. - The supply of DDR contracts is expected to rise by 35% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2023, with NAND prices increasing by 20% [1]. - Customers are actively securing long-term supply agreements, with major cloud service providers extending pre-purchase orders to 2028 [1][7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Pricing - The current price increases are attributed to genuine demand rather than speculative hoarding, as inventory levels remain low across various customer segments [7]. - Server DDR inventory is approximately 11 weeks, while PC and mobile DRAM inventories are around 9 weeks, and SSD inventories are at 8 weeks [7]. - The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is expected to see a 59.9% year-over-year increase in demand by 2026, reaching 276.7 billion Gb [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - SK Hynix is anticipated to maintain a dominant position in the HBM4 market, expected to capture about 70% of the market share [9]. - UBS has raised target prices for major storage manufacturers, including SK Hynix and Samsung, reflecting positive market sentiment [9].

Core Insights - OpenAI's ChatGPT has become the highest downloaded free app in the U.S. Apple market in 2025, surpassing traditional popular applications like social media and search tools [1][2][3] Group 1: App Rankings - According to Apple's annual app and game download rankings, ChatGPT is the top free app for iPhone in the U.S., while Google's Gemini ranks tenth [2] - This marks the first time ChatGPT has topped the rankings, having previously ranked fourth in 2024, when the shopping app Temu held the top position [2] Group 2: User Behavior and Market Trends - ChatGPT's rise to the top indicates that AI has become an essential part of daily life for U.S. users, as it outperformed essential tools like social networks and Google Maps [3][4] - The lower ranking of Google's app compared to ChatGPT suggests a shift in user preference towards AI chat tools for answers, indicating OpenAI's potential to disrupt Google's stronghold in the mobile search market [4] - Earlier in the year, ChatGPT was already showing signs of becoming the top app, having been the most downloaded app globally in March, surpassing TikTok and Instagram [4] Group 3: Performance on Different Devices - On the iPad, YouTube ranks as the top free app, with ChatGPT following closely in second place, indicating its popularity across both mobile and tablet devices [4]

日本央行前执行理事Hideo Hayakawa预计，央行行长植田和男可能在2027年前实施最多四次加息，其中 三次将在下周广泛预期的加息行动之后进行。这一预测反映出日本货币政策正步入更为激进的紧缩周 期。 周三，Hayakawa在接受彭博采访时表示，日本央行"可能认为自己已经完全落后于曲线"，植田和男即 便在下周加息后也会暗示紧缩周期尚未结束。市场普遍预期日本央行将在12月19日会议上将利率上调至 0.75%，这将是自1月以来的首次加息行动。 Hayakawa表示，日本央行此次推迟加息不应受到指责，因为决策层必须关注特朗普关税措施以及高市 早苗担任新首相时机等不确定性因素。 "特朗普和高市早苗是日本央行无法控制的变数，"Hayakawa说道，"这确实令人遗憾。" 按照某些观点，等到1月份会更合理，这样当局能够收集更多关于明年加薪势头的数据。但植田和男几 乎明确表态了加息立场。 财政政策风险加剧 前央行高官警告称，首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策可能迫使日本央行加快加息步伐，并推高最终利率 水平。高市上月推出的经济刺激方案规模超出经济学家预期，可能加剧通胀压力。 这一预测表明日本正告别超宽松货币政策时代，投资者需为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced the initiation of the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, which aims to inject liquidity into the market by purchasing short-term Treasury securities, amidst concerns over volatility in the repo market and the need to maintain adequate reserves [1][2]. Group 1: RMP Program Details - The New York Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities over the next 30 days, following the cessation of balance sheet reduction [1][2]. - The RMP will adjust its purchasing scale based on expected trends in the Fed's liabilities and seasonal fluctuations, with the first purchase scheduled for December 12 [2]. - The Fed's statement indicates that reserve balances have fallen to a level that requires intervention to maintain adequate liquidity [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the Fed's insistence that RMP is not quantitative easing (QE), the market has reacted as if it is, with increases in Treasury yields, equities, Bitcoin, gold, and oil, while the dollar weakened [1][4]. - The Bank of America believes that the cash injected through RMP will quickly lower the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), while the Federal Funds Rate (FF) will respond more slowly, creating arbitrage opportunities [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - The RMP's current implementation is compared to the 2019 repo crisis, where similar liquidity injections led to a rapid narrowing of the SOFR/FF spread [6][8]. - The expected monthly RMP scale is approximately 0.15% of GDP, lower than the 0.2-0.3% seen in 2019, indicating a less severe liquidity situation [8].

曾被视为"股神"沃伦·巴菲特接班人之一的托德·康姆斯（Todd Combs），其职业生涯正迎来一次重大转折。他将离开效力十余年的伯克希尔·哈撒 韦，转投华尔街巨头摩根大通，执掌一个规模达100亿美元的全新战略投资基金。 这一变动不仅标志着康姆斯个人角色的重塑，也凸显了在后巴菲特时代，伯克希尔内部投资权力的微妙变化，以及摩根大通在战略投资领域的勃 勃雄心。 据摩根大通本周宣布，康姆斯将于明年1月正式履新，负责该行新成立的安全与韧性投资基金（Security and Resiliency investment fund）。 此举正值其在伯克希尔的未来角色变得"不明朗"之际。随着格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）即将于明年1月1日接任巴菲特成为首席执行官，以及巴菲 特本人表示未来公司的投资组合将由新任CEO最终拍板，康姆斯的离开被市场视为一次合乎逻辑的职业选择。 对于此次人事变动，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）表示了热烈欢迎，他向英国《金融时报》透露，当康姆斯对这个新职位表现 出兴趣时，他便回应称："如果你对此有丝毫兴趣，我们便全力以赴。"戴蒙认为摩根大通对康姆斯而言是"一个天然的归宿"。 ...

思科股价周三创下历史新高，终于超越了互联网泡沫时期创下的峰值。这家曾经象征互联网技术革命的 标杆企业，用了超过25年时间才重返巅峰，其复苏之路折射出泡沫破裂后投资者信心修复的漫长过程。 思科股价周三上涨0.9%至80.25美元，突破了2000年3月27日创下的纪录高点。那一天被许多人视为互联 网泡沫的顶峰，也标志着以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数在2015年底之前的最高点。 这轮上涨得益于美联储连续第三次会议降息后的市场普遍反弹。标普500指数当日上涨0.7%，纳斯达克 100指数上涨0.4%。思科股价复苏的背后，是其强劲的营收预期以及市场对人工智能支出将加速公司增 长的乐观预期。 昔日"纳斯达克四骑士"的沉浮 思科重回历史高点之际，投资者和市场观察人士正将当今"七巨头"主导的涨势与互联网泡沫时期进行对 比。在1990年代末，思科是"纳斯达克四骑士"之一，与微软、英特尔和戴尔一起吸引了大量投资者关 注。 在2000年创下纪录的前两年，思科股价飙升近600%，将公司市值推高至超过5000亿美元。当互联网泡 沫最终破裂时，思科损失了约90%的市值，在2002年末触底至约600亿美元。 自那以后，思科股价已上涨超过 ...