美联储主席鲍威尔将现身最高法院，旁听丽莎库克（Lisa Cook）案的口头辩论，这是一次罕见的公开 站队。 1月21日，美国最高法院将举行美联储理事Lisa Cook案件的口头辩论。据美联社援引消息人士透露，届 时鲍威尔将现身最高法院旁听。 华尔街见闻提及，瑞银在16日的报告中直言，这场审判关乎美联储独立性的生死存亡。如果法院裁决允 许白宫"因故"绕过《联邦储备法》罢免理事Lisa Cook，那么鲍威尔被解职的法律大门将被彻底踢开。 独立性的赌注 此前司法部向美联储及鲍威尔发出了大陪审团传票，调查其在美联储办公楼装修项目管理及国会证词中 是否涉嫌误导。 鲍威尔的主席任期将于2026年5月15日结束，但其理事任期将持续至2028年1月31日。 特朗普与美联储公开的"白刃战" 一切源于去年八月。 特朗普公开宣称，要解雇由拜登任命的美联储理事丽莎·库克，理由是她涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。 库克否认指控，且至今未被起诉。她随即提起诉讼以保住职位。最高法院在去年十月下达临时命令，允 许她留任直至案件审结。 华尔街见闻提及，上周鲍威尔对外披露，特朗普政府已向美联储发出传票，甚至威胁对他本人提出刑事 指控。 瑞银分析认为，如果政府 ...

Group 1 - The Norwegian Central Bank Investment Management (NBIM), one of the largest sovereign wealth funds globally, has begun a significant sell-off of small and mid-cap stocks listed on the London Stock Exchange, contrasting sharply with UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves' claims of a "new golden era" for the City of London [1][4] - The sell-off involves "dozens" of companies, with multiple investment management firms receiving notifications of reduced holdings in specific asset portfolios managed by NBIM in recent weeks [1] - NBIM has approximately $2 trillion in assets under management, and this reduction in holdings comes at a time when the FTSE 100 index is reaching historical highs, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The timing of the sell-off is notable, occurring just after UK Chancellor Reeves announced reforms aimed at reducing the costs and difficulties of being listed in London, asserting that the best days for the City are not over [4] - Reeves claimed that with the FTSE 100 index hitting new highs, global companies are once again choosing London, indicating the initial signs of a new golden era for the financial hub [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - Micron Technology highlights an unprecedented shortage of memory chips driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure, which is expected to persist beyond 2026 [1] - The high bandwidth memory (HBM) required for AI accelerators is consuming a significant portion of the industry's available capacity, leading to severe shortages in traditional sectors like smartphones and personal computers [1] - Major smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi and Oppo, have revised their 2026 shipment targets downward due to rising memory costs, with Oppo predicting a reduction of up to 20% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global memory chip giants, including Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics, are experiencing substantial stock price increases due to the AI demand explosion, with Micron's stock rising over 231.6% in the past year [2] - SK Hynix has reported that its chip production capacity for 2026 is already sold out, while Micron's AI-focused high-end memory products have been fully booked for the year [2] Group 3: Strategic Moves - To prioritize supply for strategic clients like NVIDIA, Micron announced the termination of its popular consumer memory brand, Crucial, to focus on DRAM, which is essential for AI accelerator performance [4] - Micron is accelerating its capacity expansion in the U.S. and Asia, planning to invest $1.8 billion to acquire an existing factory site in Taiwan, which is crucial for its production capabilities [5] - The company is also advancing multiple large-scale factory projects, including a $100 billion investment in New York to build four DRAM wafer fabs, with the first wafers expected to be produced by 2030 [5]

风险提示及免责条款 OpenAI计划2026年发布第一款设备。（Axios） 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current environment of the Hong Kong stock market mirrors that of early 2025, with a potential for significant investment opportunities driven by AI applications despite weak overseas liquidity expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market is at a critical juncture, similar to early 2025, where liquidity expectations are limited due to the Federal Reserve's policies, while AI applications are poised for explosive growth [2][3]. - Recent U.S. inflation data, although below expectations, has not reached a level that would prompt an immediate shift in Federal Reserve policy, indicating limited improvement in liquidity for the Hong Kong market [3]. Group 2: AI Value Reassessment - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for the reassessment of AI value in China for 2026, supported by a solid industrial catalyst timeline [6]. - The release of DeepSeek V4 during the Chinese New Year is expected to replicate last year's market surge, with increased capital expenditure from major domestic companies providing a robust foundation for model capabilities [6]. Group 3: Application Layer Developments - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the application layer of AI, with significant advancements expected from platform-based internet companies in China [7]. - Alibaba's AI assistant "Qianwen app" has achieved over 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, marking a shift from model-based to application-based AI strategies [7]. Group 4: Intelligent Driving - Intelligent driving is identified as the largest AI application expected to scale in 2026, driven by significant developments in both domestic and international markets [8]. - The combination of Tesla's FSD and Grok enhances driving experiences, while regulatory changes in the U.S. signal the imminent large-scale operation of Robotaxi services [8]. Group 5: Market Data and Fund Flows - Recent fund flows indicate strong investor preference for leading technology platforms, with Tencent, Kuaishou, and Xiaomi receiving substantial net inflows [9]. - As of January 16, 2026, the Hang Seng Index PE has risen to 11.7 times, reflecting a 1.66% increase from the previous week, while Alibaba and SMIC have shown significant stock price increases, validating the positive outlook for platform companies and hardware infrastructure [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market pullback may present an excellent "buying opportunity," with Goldman Sachs analysts asserting that Microsoft is the best investment choice to leverage the AI product cycle for compounded growth [2] Group 1: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts Microsoft's earnings per share (EPS) will steadily reach $35 by fiscal year 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% [2] - The current market panic may serve as an entry point for investors, as Microsoft is establishing its dominance in the AI era through flexible infrastructure and unique profit margin advantages [2] Group 2: AI Cycle and Profitability - Microsoft’s management highlighted that the current AI cycle mirrors the early cloud cycle, where high initial costs were followed by significant profit margin expansion due to scale effects and efficiency improvements [3] - The company believes its leadership in the AI cycle is even stronger than during the cloud cycle, driven by operational discipline and rapid efficiency gains [3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI provides a unique gross margin advantage, as it does not incur additional API costs for using OpenAI models, creating a significant competitive edge over other software providers [4] - Microsoft is redefining the role of large language models (LLMs) as the next generation of abstraction layers, which will shift applications from hard-coded rules to intent-driven execution [4] Group 4: Infrastructure Strategy - Microsoft has demonstrated strong strategic resolve by rejecting the "bring your own chip" (BYOC) model, which could isolate infrastructure stacks and undermine core profit drivers [6] - The company’s profit advantage stems from optimizing the entire stack of data centers, power, cooling, networking, and silicon, rather than focusing on individual components [6] Group 5: Market Demand Trends - There is a noticeable shift in enterprise customer discussions regarding AI adoption, moving from "whether to adopt" to "when and to what extent to expand" [7] - Microsoft has observed widespread adoption of enterprise AI, with customers typically starting with pilot programs and rapidly scaling up as familiarity increases [7] - The company has adjusted its sales incentives to focus on accelerating customer value realization rather than merely pricing, indicating a shift towards deeper ecosystem engagement [7]

"考虑到你的国家决定不授予我诺贝尔和平奖……我不再感到有义务纯粹考虑和平，尽管和 平永远是我的首要目标，但现在我可以考虑什么对美利坚合众国有利、合乎情理。除非我们 完全彻底控制格陵兰，否则世界不安全。" Støre周一上午证实收到了这条短信。此前他曾向特朗普发送短信，抗议美国对挪威和其他向格陵兰派 遣军队的欧洲国家征收关税。据PBS新闻报道，特朗普的这条短信随后被转发至"多个"驻华盛顿的欧洲 使馆。 特朗普质疑丹麦对格陵兰主权 特朗普在短信中重申其对丹麦控制格陵兰合法性的质疑，尽管美国曾在多项条约中承认丹麦对格陵兰岛 的主权，其中包括1916-1917年关于出售丹麦西印度群岛的公约。 他在致Støre的短信中写道： 美国总统特朗普在致挪威首相的短信中，将其对格陵兰的领土诉求与未能获得诺贝尔和平奖直接关联， 声称不再有义务"纯粹考虑和平"，而将优先考虑美国利益。 据央视新闻，当地时间1月17日，美总统特朗普发文称，将对8个反对其收购格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征 10%的关税。自2026年6月1日起，加征关税的税率将提高至25%。他表示，这一关税措施将持续实施， 直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。 1月19日， ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP surpassed 140 trillion yuan, achieving a year-on-year growth of 5%, successfully meeting the government's growth target despite complex external conditions and domestic supply-demand contradictions [1] - The industrial production, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, showed strong resilience, with exports exceeding expectations and becoming a key driver of economic growth [1] Production Sector - Industrial production was a major highlight in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in December for large-scale industrial added value, and high-tech manufacturing value growing by 11%, more than double the overall industrial growth rate [5] - Specific products like industrial robots and integrated circuits saw significant production increases of 14.7% and 12.9%, respectively, indicating the strengthening role of new productive forces in the economy [5] - The supply-side structure is changing due to "anti-involution" policies, leading to a reduction in blind expansion in some industries, with solar cell production growth dropping from 18.2% in the first half to -9.7% in December [7] Export Performance - The export value of large-scale industrial products increased by 2.2% year-on-year in 2025, with notable performance in equipment manufacturing sectors such as railways, ships, and aerospace [7] Consumption Sector - The consumption market exhibited a structural characteristic where services outperformed goods, with service retail sales growing by 5.5% compared to goods retail [9] - The "old-for-new" policy showed mixed effects, with communication equipment retail sales surging by 20.9% in December, while categories like home appliances and automobiles faced demand pressure, declining by 18.7% and 5%, respectively [9][10] - There is a noticeable trend of consumption downshifting, with rural retail sales growing by 1.7%, surpassing urban growth of 0.7% [9] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% in 2025, with real estate development investment dropping by 17.2%. However, signs of stabilization in real estate sales were observed, with a narrowing decline in December for both sales value and area [11] - Equipment renewal investment grew by 11.8%, supported by special government bonds, marking a structural highlight in the investment sector [11] Outlook for 2026 - The market anticipates a "good start" for 2026, driven by the continued effects of the "old-for-new" policy, proactive government bond issuance, and the release of delayed policies [11] - The focus will shift towards deeper economic structural transformation, emphasizing consumption over investment and technology over traditional manufacturing [11]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that 2026 will be a strategic turning point for Chinese internet giants, with increased investment in consumer-facing AI and competition around "AI super entry" while focusing on defending their core market positions [1] Group 1: Industry Transition - The industry transition in 2026 is fundamentally driven by ByteDance's comprehensive breakthroughs, which are reshaping competitive dynamics [2] - ByteDance is projected to achieve a profit of $50 billion in 2025, significantly surpassing Tencent's $36 billion and Alibaba's $15 billion [2] - In the AI sector, ByteDance's Doubao app has over 100 million daily active users and is the leading consumer-level AI application in China [2] Group 2: Strategic Responses from Giants - In response to ByteDance's advancements, Alibaba and Tencent are compelled to pivot their strategies, increasing AI investments to over $60 billion collectively by 2026 [3] - Alibaba aims to maintain its leading position in e-commerce GMV, while Tencent accelerates AI features in WeChat and explores social AI applications through QQ [3] - The competitive landscape is expected to rationalize, improving unit economics in sectors like food delivery [3] Group 3: Key AI Themes Restructuring the Industry - Six key AI themes identified by Goldman Sachs will reshape the industry ecosystem in 2026, including advertising transformation, model competition, and the emergence of consumer AI entry points [4] - The advertising budget is shifting towards ROI-driven ads, with new strategies like AEO and GEO gaining traction [4] - The competition in AI models is intensifying, focusing on long context, multi-modal, and low-cost architectures [4] Group 4: Investment Framework - The investment landscape is shifting from a "broad market rally" to an "alpha era" focused on selective stock picking, emphasizing EPS delivery/growth, AI, and globalization narratives [6] - Companies benefiting from improving order trends and rationalized competition, such as Alibaba and JD.com, are highlighted for their potential in profit growth [7] - The focus is also on AI technology breakthroughs and global business expansion, with companies like Kuaishou and Baidu identified as key players [8] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - Companies with stable cash flows and strong shareholder return capabilities are prioritized, particularly those with sufficient net cash and potential for dividend increases [9]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is reportedly planning to redefine mobile connectivity boundaries with the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro series by introducing 5G satellite communication capabilities, marking a significant technological leap in smartphone hardware competition [1] Group 1: Satellite Communication Functionality - The new "satellite 5G" feature is expected to expand the application of satellite communication from emergency rescue to daily communication, providing real-time connectivity beyond terrestrial cellular network coverage [1][2] - Unlike the current "satellite emergency SOS" function, which is limited to sending text messages in no-signal areas, the new feature will support voice calls and data transmission with bandwidth capabilities increasing from kilobits (Kbps) to megabits (Mbps) and even gigabits (Gbps) [1][3] Group 2: Technical Specifications and Upgrades - The current satellite emergency SOS function is constrained by low bandwidth, allowing only minimal data transmission, while the new 5G satellite communication technology is expected to break the kilobit per second (Kbps) transmission barrier, significantly enhancing user experience [3] - This upgrade is anticipated to elevate the market positioning of the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, providing users with true communication freedom in areas lacking ground network coverage [3] Group 3: Commercialization and Operator Collaboration - The commercialization of the "satellite 5G" feature will depend heavily on partnerships with telecom operators, contrasting with the current emergency SOS feature that is not charged to customers [4] - Apple may need to establish close collaborations with domestic and international operators, and the initial rollout of this feature may be limited to specific regions, with potential costs depending on agreements with local operators [4]