全球汇市正面临双重政治冲击：一边是特朗普的贸易大棒施压美元，另一边是日本首相高市早苗的财政刺激拖累日元。 尽管美国经济数据尚显韧性，但政治风险正成为美元走弱的核心推手；而日本方面，尽管面临全球避险情绪，日元却未能发挥传统的"避风港"作 用，反而因国内激进的财政政策预期而遭到抛售。 特朗普发起"格陵兰岛关税"重创美元 据追风交易台消息，野村证券全球市场研究团队1月19日发布的报告显示，当前的汇率市场正在被美日两国的政治议程所主导。 野村报告指出，特朗普在收购格陵兰岛问题上的强硬立场引发了新一轮的美欧贸易冲突。特朗普宣布，如果欧洲国家不配合其关于格陵兰岛的决 定，将从2月1日起对8个欧洲国家征收额外关税。 据央视新闻报道，近日美总统特朗普发文称，将对8个反对其收购格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征10%的关税，数月后还将增至25%，直至就"完全、彻 底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。 这一地缘政治紧张局势直接打击了本周初的市场风险情绪。美股下跌的同时，美元并未像以往那样因避险而上涨，反而兑G10货币广泛走弱。野 村分析师指出，这种市场反应与2025年4月的"关税解放日（Liberation Day）"如出一辙。 这对投资者意味着一个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of reaching an agreement regarding Greenland that satisfies Trump's strategic goals while respecting Danish and Greenlandic sovereignty is rapidly decreasing [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Dynamics - The Greenland issue is evolving from a diplomatic negotiation to a high-intensity geopolitical confrontation centered on tariffs, security, and institutional boundaries [1] - Trump's potential push for a significant shift in the Greenland situation before the midterm elections in November indicates that the coming months will be a critical window [1] Group 2: Economic Pressure and Negotiation Changes - The negotiation logic has shifted from diplomatic pressure to economic coercion, with tariffs being explicitly used as a core tool to alter European decision-making incentives [2] - The imposition of tariffs on goods from NATO member countries that provide military or security resources to Greenland signifies a broader strategy to reassess the costs of European security cooperation [2] Group 3: Sovereignty and Compromise Challenges - The concept of a "transaction without sacrificing sovereignty" is increasingly seen as structurally failing, moving away from being a baseline scenario to a diminishing realistic option [3] Group 4: Historical Precedents and Concerns - Historical examples of U.S. territorial expansion illustrate a consistent pattern of economic pressure leading to political intervention, raising concerns about similar tactics being employed in the current context [4][6] Group 5: U.S. Military and Strategic Objectives - Trump's objectives have shifted from "participation" to "control," seeking not just greater usage rights but a long-term control that undermines European influence and excludes Russia [5] - The negotiation has been framed in a binary manner, with the term "complete purchase" negating any middle ground, making compromises appear insufficient [5] Group 6: European Response and Options - The EU has publicly stated its commitment to maintaining Danish and Greenlandic sovereignty, but there is a significant gap between statements and actual execution [8] - While the EU theoretically has various tools to respond if an acceptable agreement is not reached, the real challenge lies in its unity, political will, and capacity to withstand a full economic confrontation with the U.S. [8] Group 7: Institutional Implications - If the U.S. were to take military action in Greenland, Europe would likely be unable to respond with equivalent military force, leading to a reassessment of its security dependence on the U.S. and the foundational structures of NATO [9] - The essence of the Greenland issue has shifted from a negotiation of tactics to a pressure test concerning sovereignty, control, and institutional boundaries, indicating that the geopolitical risks are becoming a structural variable that needs to be priced in [9]

Core Viewpoint - Capitalwatch has released a short-selling report accusing AppLovin Corporation of systemic compliance risks and significant financial crimes related to its major shareholder structure [1][3]. Group 1: Allegations of Financial Crimes - The report claims that AppLovin's major shareholder, Hao Tang, is linked to illegal funding sources and has facilitated money laundering for the Prince Group, a transnational criminal organization [3][5]. - It is alleged that Hao Tang inherited approximately 9.57 billion USD in illegal funds from the collapse of a Chinese P2P platform, and has connections to gambling operations that generated around 21.5 billion RMB (approximately 3.1 billion USD) in illicit gains [5][6]. - The report details a closed-loop system where illegal funds are converted into advertising fees through a Cambodian app, ultimately entering the U.S. capital markets as legitimate assets [3][12]. Group 2: Connections to Criminal Networks - The Prince Group, led by Chen Zhi, is identified as a key player in providing ongoing cash flow and laundering infrastructure for Hao Tang [8]. - The report highlights that the U.S. Department of Justice has seized approximately 15 billion USD in cryptocurrency linked to the Prince Group, underscoring its significant financial capabilities [8]. - It is noted that the Prince Group operates closed-off labor camps disguised as tech parks, where foreign workers are exploited for scams [8]. Group 3: Technical Complicity - AppLovin's technologies, specifically the Array and AXON algorithms, are described as tools that facilitate the execution of scams and illegal gambling operations [10][11]. - The report indicates that AppLovin has gained system-level permissions on Android devices through partnerships with manufacturers and telecom operators, allowing it to install applications without user consent [11]. Group 4: Money Laundering Mechanism - The report outlines a money laundering scheme termed the "Ad-Tech Laundromat," where funds from scams are funneled through AppLovin's advertising platform [12][13]. - Prince Group allegedly opens advertising accounts on AppLovin using funds from scams, paying hundreds of millions for ad traffic, which is then recorded as legitimate revenue [12]. Group 5: Compliance and Regulatory Risks - AppLovin is described as being on the brink of a compliance crisis, with potential delisting risks if the illegal nature of its major shareholders' funds is proven [14][15]. - The report calls for immediate regulatory action, including freezing shares held by Hao Tang and conducting a forensic audit of AppLovin's advertising revenue sources [15].

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 1月5年期以上LPR为3.5%，1年期LPR为3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential for Europe to leverage its over $10 trillion in U.S. assets amid Trump's tariff threats has become a significant market concern [1][2]. Group 1: European Assets and Market Reactions - The majority of U.S. assets held by Europe are owned by private funds, making it challenging for European governments to control or force the sale of these assets [2][3]. - If Europe were to weaponize its U.S. assets, it would escalate the trade conflict into a financial confrontation, impacting capital markets directly [2][3]. - Following the announcement of tariffs, market tensions have already emerged, with U.S. stock futures, European markets, and the dollar under pressure, while gold and safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and euro have benefited [2]. Group 2: Challenges of Asset Weaponization - The European Union faces significant obstacles in attempting to force private investors to sell U.S. assets, as the primary focus of sovereign wealth funds is on commercial and risk factors rather than political considerations [4]. - A large-scale strategic sell-off of U.S. assets would likely result in a "negative-sum game," harming both the European investors and the broader market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of European policymakers taking extreme measures against U.S. assets is low, as it could damage their own investment interests [4]. Group 3: Possible European Responses - Goldman Sachs outlines three potential response pathways for the EU: postponing the EU-U.S. trade agreement, imposing tariffs on U.S. goods worth €93 billion ($108 billion), or utilizing the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) [5][6][8]. - The ACI allows the EU to implement a range of non-tariff countermeasures, including investment restrictions and taxation on foreign assets, indicating a shift from traditional tariff responses [8][10]. - Initiating the ACI does not mean immediate implementation of countermeasures, but it signals a strategic shift in the EU's approach to economic coercion [10].

中国AI六小龙之一的月之暗面正在进行新一轮融资。 1月19日，据CNBC援引知情人士透露，中国人工智能初创公司月之暗面（Moonshot AI）在新一轮融资中估值达到48亿美元，较其 一个月前的估值水平跃升了5亿美元。 报道援引知情人士表示，看到对标公司在港股的亮眼表现，投资者迅速重估了Kimi的价值。由于认购需求强烈，本轮融资预计将 很快关闭。 他们补充称，鉴于市场对潜在中国AI上市公司的兴趣激增，该公司在后续轮次中的估值可能进一步攀升。 尽管竞争对手已先行一步叩响资本市场大门，但创始人杨植麟却展现出了极强的战略定力。在最近的AI行业峰会及内部交流中，他 明确表示：月之暗面目前并不急于推进IPO进程。 杨植麟此前透露，公司目前持有超过100亿人民币的充足现金储备，这让月之暗面有资本在长跑中保持自己的节奏。 推动估值跳升的直接催化剂，来自其同行的公开市场表现。今年早些时候，中国AI公司智谱AI与MiniMax在香港上市后股价强劲上 涨。 （MiniMax累涨近10%，智谱则飙涨70%） 分析认为，随着中国本土AI公司上市路径被验证，国际与本土风险资本正竞相在下一批企业IPO前锁定投资席位，推高了头部标的 的估 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the surge in demand driven by artificial intelligence, South Korea's major memory chip manufacturers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, will continue to cut NAND flash production this year, which is expected to drive up NAND prices across various sectors, enhancing profit margins comparable to DRAM [1][4]. Group 1: Production and Market Strategy - Samsung's NAND wafer production is projected to decrease from 4.9 million units last year to 4.68 million units this year, even below the reduction level planned for 2024 due to declining profitability [1]. - SK Hynix's NAND production is expected to drop from approximately 1.9 million units last year to 1.7 million units this year [1]. - Both companies together hold over 60% of the global NAND flash market share, and their production cuts are occurring amid intensified competition in AI-driven applications [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Bonuses - The global storage chip supercycle driven by AI has resulted in historic profits, prompting Samsung and SK Hynix to issue their largest performance bonuses in years [2][5]. - Samsung's semiconductor division has confirmed that eligible employees will receive bonuses equivalent to 47% of their base annual salary, a stark contrast to the zero bonus rate in 2023 due to market downturns [6]. - SK Hynix has adopted a more aggressive bonus strategy, eliminating the long-standing cap on bonuses and allocating 10% of operating profits for profit-sharing, with average bonuses expected to exceed 140 million KRW, marking a historical high [6]. Group 3: Price Expectations and Market Dynamics - Major market research firms anticipate a comprehensive increase in NAND prices starting from Q1 this year, with TrendForce projecting a contract price increase of 33% to 38% compared to the previous quarter [4]. - IDC forecasts a 17% growth rate in NAND supply this year, which is below the average levels seen in recent years [4]. - Analysts suggest that the supply control by Samsung and SK Hynix may exacerbate shortages in AI servers, mobile devices, and PCs, as both companies focus on maximizing profits during this storage chip supercycle [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Google's Gemini AI model sales have experienced explosive growth over the past year, driven by improved model quality and increased API call requests [1] - The number of API calls for Gemini increased from approximately 35 billion at the launch of Gemini 2.5 in March last year to about 85 billion in August, more than doubling [1] - The release of Gemini 3 in November has sparked renewed interest and received widespread acclaim, contributing to the growth in both quantity and quality of the models [1] Group 2 - Despite positive business data, the market remains concerned about the high capital expenditure, with Google projecting capital expenditures between $91 billion and $93 billion, nearly double the $52.5 billion expected for 2024 [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Q4 financial report for signs of returns on these substantial investments [3] Group 3 - Google is attempting to enhance profit margins through Gemini Enterprise, which currently has 8 million subscribers from 1,500 companies and over 1 million online registered users [4] - Market feedback on Gemini Enterprise is polarized, with customer satisfaction split nearly 50/50, indicating mixed reactions to the product [4] - Challenges arise from Google's "developer-first" approach, leading many customers to prefer building custom agents using Gemini models rather than purchasing pre-packaged software [4] - While Gemini Enterprise excels in answering general questions based on enterprise data, it struggles with specific tasks, though customers are willing to continue using it with a "let's give it a try" attitude [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in bond yields in Japan and the United States, indicating a shift in fiscal policy and market conditions [1] Group 2 - Japan's 10-year government bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 2.3%, the highest level since February 1999 [1] - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bond reached 4%, marking the first time since its issuance in 2007 [1] - The announcement by Japanese politician Hiromu Kato regarding the House of Representatives election on February 8 signals an end to overly tight fiscal policies [1] Group 3 - In the United States, the 30-year government bond yield rose by 3.8 basis points to 4.879%, the highest since early September of the previous year [1] - The 10-year government bond yield in the U.S. increased to 4.259%, also the highest since early September of the previous year [1]

据华尔街日报，这些波动幅度远低于灾难性事件应有的市场反应——自1964年以来，标普500平均每年 出现21次类似跌幅，黄金期货自1979年以来平均每年有15次类似涨幅，也就是说市场并未出现恐慌情 绪。 分析认为，这一地缘政治僵局可能遵循特朗普常用的"先升级事态，再降级"（escalate to de-escalate） 的剧本。高盛Delta-One部门负责人Rich Privorotsky指出，其基准情形是特朗普将在最后一刻达成妥协。 他指出，这一立场在国内并不受欢迎，民调显示仅17%的美国人支持收购格陵兰的努力，且民主党和共 和党选民中绝大多数反对使用武力吞并该岛。 市场反应背后的四重逻辑 面对美国总统特朗普以关税为筹码强购格陵兰岛的威胁，全球市场虽然呈现避险情绪，但反应相对克 制。分析认为，这不过是特朗普惯用的"极限施压"谈判策略，最终双方将达成某种形式的妥协。 周末特朗普威胁对英国、法国、德国等多个欧洲国家加征关税，以迫使丹麦交出格陵兰。隔夜美股休 市，标普500指数期货下跌略超1%，欧洲股市跌幅相近，黄金上涨不到2%。 这一事件发生的时间点也耐人寻味，正值达沃斯论坛举行周。Privorotsky认为 ...